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Governor Macklem Affirms No Negative Interest Rates
DLC Canadian Mortgage Experts • Jun 24, 2020
First Formal Remarks By Tiff Macklem, Bank of Canada Governor
There were no surprises this morning from Governor Macklem's virtual presentation to the Canadian Clubs of Canada. His opening written statement was quite brief and it was followed up with a Q and A. Here are the key points that he emphasized.
- Negative interest rates are off the table as they "lead to distortions in the behaviour of financial markets."
- Therefore, no additional Bank of Canada rate cuts is coming.
- The BoC will continue its securities purchase program to provide liquidity to financial markets.
- In response to questions, he said he expects lasting damage to demand and supply in the economy. He said the recovery will be "long and bumpy" and "slow and gradual".
- The inflation target of 2% will remain the beacon for BoC policy. Currently, inflation is below target.
- "This recession is a deep one. Women have been particularly hard hit because they work disproportionately in the hard-hit service sector and women are disproportionately caring for children and the elderly".
- Fiscal support programs lay the foundation for the recovery of particular groups.
- Oil-producing regions are hard hit by the oil price shock. The price of oil has moved up recently to WTI $40, but the pandemic clearly "weakens oil demand".
- Household debt levels are a concern . Fiscal transfers help and households have reduced their spending. The role of the BoC is to provide the required stimulus to encourage households to spend. The macroprudential measures already in place will discourage highly indebted households from taking on more debt.
- He expects "pretty good growth in jobs and GDP in Q3". Beyond that is more uncertain as we will need to repair the economy.
- All institutions must speed up actions to deal with climate change, including the BoC. We will need to get a handle on the implications of this for the economy.
- Chartered banks are more conservative in their lending practices since the pandemic hit. The securities-purchase programs are intended to keep credit flowing from the banks. The banks are an important shock absorber during this recession. Conditions in financial markets are much improved since the beginning of the crisis. "Markets have normalized and credit is flowing more freely".
- Both the government and the BoC have introduced extraordinary programs to deal with this crisis. He said, however, that we could use "additional international assistance and cooperation".
- Real estate question --How much risk does this sector represent? The Governor commented that different sectors will behave differently Warehouse and fulfillment centre demand is quite strong. Commercial real estate outlook is uncertain-- particularly office space and shopping malls. Housing--he commented that "sharp drops in housing activity" has led to "little change in prices" thus far. This will vary by region and type of housing in the future.
- "The pace of change is accelerating. Societies around the world are having trouble keeping up. The central bank must get ahead of this" and be prepared for the unknowns, be agile and resolute.
- Asked about the potential for a second wave of a pandemic, he said, "The outlook is fraught with uncertainty. The biggest uncertainty is the course of the virus. There will be increases in the number of cases. We need testing and tracing with quick responses locally. We need to determine how to open up safely."
- When asked for his last word, he said, "We are going to get through this. Canadians are resourceful, business ingenuity is strong, this will be a long slow recovery and there will be setbacks. We have avoided the worst scenario. Not all jobs will come back. The Bank is laser-focused on supporting this recovery and getting Canadians back to work".
This article was written by Dr Sherry Cooper DLC's Chief Economist. It was published to her newsletter on June 22nd 2020.
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Did you know there’s a program that allows you to use your RRSP to help come up with your downpayment to buy a home? It’s called the Home Buyer’s Plan (or HBP for short), and it’s made possible by the government of Canada. While the program is pretty straightforward, there are a few things you need to know. Your first home (with some exceptions) To qualify, you need to be buying your first home. However, when you look into the fine print, you find that technically, you must not have owned a home in the last four years or have lived in a house that your spouse owned in the previous four years. Another exception is for those with a disability or those helping someone with a disability. In this case, you can withdraw from an RRSP for a home purchase at any time. You have to pay back the RRSP You have 15 years to pay back the RRSP, and you start the second year after the withdrawal. While you won’t pay any tax on this particular withdrawal, it does come with some conditions. You’ll have to pay back the total amount you withdrew over 15 years. The CRA will send you an HBP Statement of Account every year to advise how much you owe the RRSP that year. Your repayments will not count as contributions as you’ve already received the tax break from those funds. Access to funds The funds you withdraw from the RRSP must have been there for at least 90 days. You can still technically withdraw the money from your RRSP and use it for your down-payment, but it won’t be tax-deductible and won’t be part of the HBP. You can access up to $35,000 individually or $70,00 per couple through the HBP. Please connect anytime if you’d like to know more about the HBP and how it could work for you as you plan your downpayment. It would be a pleasure to work with you.
If you’re new to the home buying process, it’s easy to get confused by some of the terms used. The purpose of this article is to clear up any confusion between the deposit and downpayment. What is a deposit? The deposit is the money included with a purchase contract as a sign of good faith when you offer to purchase a property. It’s the “consideration” that helps make up the contract and binds you to the agreement. Typically, you include a certified cheque or a bank draft that your real estate brokerage holds while negotiations are finalized when you offer to purchase a property. If your offer is accepted, your deposit is held in your Realtor’s trust account. If your offer is accepted and you commit to buying the property, your deposit is transferred to the lawyer’s trust account and included in your downpayment. If you aren’t able to reach an agreement, the deposit is refunded to you. However, if you commit to buying the property and don’t complete the transaction, your deposit could be forfeit to the seller. Your deposit goes ahead of the downpayment but makes up part of the downpayment. The amount you put forward as a deposit when negotiating the terms of a purchase contract is arbitrary, meaning there is no predefined or standard amount. Instead, it’s best to discuss this with your real estate professional as your deposit can be a negotiating factor in and of itself. A larger deposit may give you a better chance of having your offer accepted in a competitive situation. It also puts you on the hook for more if something changes down the line and you cannot complete the purchase. What is a downpayment? Your downpayment refers to the initial payment you make when buying a property through mortgage financing. In Canada, the minimum downpayment amount is 5%, as lenders can only lend up to 95% of the property’s value. Securing mortgage financing with anything less than 20% down is only made possible through mortgage default insurance. You can source your downpayment from your resources, the sale of a property, an RRSP, a gift from a family member, or borrowed funds. Example scenario Let’s say that you are looking to purchase a property worth $400k. You’re planning on making a downpayment of 10% or $40k. When you make the initial offer to buy the property, you put forward $10k as a deposit your real estate brokerage holds in their trust account. If everything checks out with the home inspection and you’re satisfied with financing, you can remove all conditions. Your $10k deposit is transferred to the lawyer’s trust account, where will add the remaining $30k for the downpayment. With your $40k downpayment made, once you sign the mortgage documents and cover the legal and closing costs, the lender will forward the remaining 90% in the form of a mortgage registered to your title, and you have officially purchased the property! If you have any questions about the difference between the deposit and the downpayment or any other mortgage terms, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.
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