CMEXP Mortgage Articles

How Your Loans and Spending Habits Are Quietly Shaping Your Credit Score

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 19:51:50 GMT

Your credit score is one of the most important numbers in your financial life — especially when it comes to getting a mortgage. But for most Canadians, how that number actually gets calculated remains a bit of a mystery.

Here's what you need to know.

What Is a Credit Score, Exactly?

A credit score in Canada ranges between 300 and 900 points. It's considered a predictor of how likely you are to pay your debt on time, and it directly affects a lender's decisions on loans, interest rates, and credit limits. The higher your score, the better.

In Canada, Equifax and TransUnion are the two primary organizations that collect data on consumer borrowing and provide credit scores to lenders. While both use similar inputs, their algorithms can differ — which is why your score may vary slightly depending on which bureau a lender checks.

Not All Loans Are Created Equal

You might assume that carrying a mortgage, a car loan, and a credit card all affect your score the same way. They don't.

Revolving credit products — like credit cards or a line of credit — can carry a higher influence on your credit score because they provide more insight into how you manage credit on a day-to-day basis. If you're regularly carrying a high balance or missing payments, that gets noticed quickly.

Instalment loans, such as auto loans, personal loans, or student loans, show your ability to manage a fixed scheduled payment. A mortgage, on the other hand, demonstrates your capacity to manage long-term balance repayment. Each type of credit tells lenders something different about your financial behaviour.

The Factors That Matter Most

Here's a breakdown of what actually moves your credit score:

1. Payment History

The biggest impact on your credit score comes from payment history — whether you're paying on time, and how long any bills have gone unpaid. Even one missed payment can leave a mark.

2. Total Amount Owed

This includes the total you owe across all creditors, how much you owe on specific types of accounts, and how much of your available credit you've used.

3. Credit Utilization

Your debt-to-credit utilization ratio — the amount you're borrowing compared to your total credit limit — matters significantly. Keeping that ratio below 30 to 40 per cent will help your score.

4. Length of Credit History

How long you've had credit products plays a role in your score calculation. This includes the age of your oldest account, your newest account, and the average age of all accounts. Closing old accounts can unintentionally lower your score.

5. Credit Inquiries

A credit inquiry for a new credit card or auto loan stays on your profile for six years. Checking your own score or getting a pre-approval doesn't affect your score — and when shopping for a mortgage, multiple inquiries are typically treated as a single event.

6. Unused Credit

Having a large amount of unused credit available can also negatively affect your score. Even if you don't owe anything on a $50,000 line of credit, a lender still has to factor in the fact that you have the capacity to take on that debt.

What This Means Before You Apply for a Mortgage

Your credit score doesn't just determine whether you're approved — it directly impacts the interest rate you're offered. A stronger score can mean thousands of dollars in savings over the life of your mortgage.

If you're planning to buy, renew, or refinance, it's worth taking a close look at your credit picture well in advance. Small changes — like paying down a credit card balance or avoiding new credit applications — can make a real difference in where your score lands when it counts.

Not sure where to start? Reach out — reviewing your financial profile before you apply is part of how we help you get the best possible outcome.

Have questions about your mortgage options? Get in touch today.

RRSP As A Downpayment

Wed, 28 Dec 2022 08:15:06 GMT

Did you know there’s a program that allows you to use your RRSP to help come up with your downpayment to buy a home? It’s called the Home Buyer’s Plan (or HBP for short), and it’s made possible by the government of Canada. While the program is pretty straightforward, there are a few things you need to know.

Your first home (with some exceptions)

To qualify, you need to be buying your first home. However, when you look into the fine print, you find that technically, you must not have owned a home in the last four years or have lived in a house that your spouse owned in the previous four years.

Another exception is for those with a disability or those helping someone with a disability. In this case, you can withdraw from an RRSP for a home purchase at any time.

You have to pay back the RRSP

You have 15 years to pay back the RRSP, and you start the second year after the withdrawal. While you won’t pay any tax on this particular withdrawal, it does come with some conditions. You’ll have to pay back the total amount you withdrew over 15 years.

The CRA will send you an HBP Statement of Account every year to advise how much you owe the RRSP that year. Your repayments will not count as contributions as you’ve already received the tax break from those funds.

Access to funds

The funds you withdraw from the RRSP must have been there for at least 90 days. You can still technically withdraw the money from your RRSP and use it for your down-payment, but it won’t be tax-deductible and won’t be part of the HBP.

You can access up to $35,000 individually or $70,00 per couple through the HBP.

Please connect anytime if you’d like to know more about the HBP and how it could work for you as you plan your downpayment. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Is There A Difference Between A Deposit And Downpayment

Wed, 21 Dec 2022 08:16:11 GMT

If you’re new to the home buying process, it’s easy to get confused by some of the terms used. The purpose of this article is to clear up any confusion between the deposit and downpayment.

What is a deposit?

The deposit is the money included with a purchase contract as a sign of good faith when you offer to purchase a property. It’s the “consideration” that helps make up the contract and binds you to the agreement.

Typically, you include a certified cheque or a bank draft that your real estate brokerage holds while negotiations are finalized when you offer to purchase a property. If your offer is accepted, your deposit is held in your Realtor’s trust account.

If your offer is accepted and you commit to buying the property, your deposit is transferred to the lawyer’s trust account and included in your downpayment. If you aren’t able to reach an agreement, the deposit is refunded to you. However, if you commit to buying the property and don’t complete the transaction, your deposit could be forfeit to the seller.

Your deposit goes ahead of the downpayment but makes up part of the downpayment.

The amount you put forward as a deposit when negotiating the terms of a purchase contract is arbitrary, meaning there is no predefined or standard amount. Instead, it’s best to discuss this with your real estate professional as your deposit can be a negotiating factor in and of itself.

A larger deposit may give you a better chance of having your offer accepted in a competitive situation. It also puts you on the hook for more if something changes down the line and you cannot complete the purchase.

What is a downpayment?

Your downpayment refers to the initial payment you make when buying a property through mortgage financing.

In Canada, the minimum downpayment amount is 5%, as lenders can only lend up to 95% of the property’s value. Securing mortgage financing with anything less than 20% down is only made possible through mortgage default insurance. You can source your downpayment from your resources, the sale of a property, an RRSP, a gift from a family member, or borrowed funds.

Example scenario

Let’s say that you are looking to purchase a property worth $400k. You’re planning on making a downpayment of 10% or $40k. When you make the initial offer to buy the property, you put forward $10k as a deposit your real estate brokerage holds in their trust account. If everything checks out with the home inspection and you’re satisfied with financing, you can remove all conditions. Your $10k deposit is transferred to the lawyer’s trust account, where will add the remaining $30k for the downpayment.

With your $40k downpayment made, once you sign the mortgage documents and cover the legal and closing costs, the lender will forward the remaining 90% in the form of a mortgage registered to your title, and you have officially purchased the property!

If you have any questions about the difference between the deposit and the downpayment or any other mortgage terms, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Options For Your Downpayment

Wed, 14 Dec 2022 08:15:10 GMT

Your downpayment refers to the initial payment you make when buying a property through mortgage financing. A downpayment is always required when purchasing, because in Canada, lenders are only allowed to lend up to 95% of the property value, leaving you with the need to come up with at least 5% for a downpayment.

In fact, securing mortgage financing with anything less than 20% down is only made possible through mortgage default insurance. Canada has three default insurance providers: the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Sagen (formerly Genworth Canada), and Canada Guaranty. There is a cost for default insurance which is usually rolled into the total mortgage amount and is tiered depending on how much you put down.

As your downpayment can be a significant amount of money, you probably need a plan to put this money together. So, let’s take a look at some of the options you have to come up with a downpayment.

Money from your resources

If you’ve been saving money and have accumulated the funds and set them aside for to use for your downpayment, you'll need to prove a 90-day history of those funds. As far as the lender is concerned, this is the most straightforward way to prove a downpayment.

Any large deposits to your bank account that aren’t from payroll will require you to prove the source of funds. For example, if you recently sold a vehicle, you’ll need to provide the paperwork as proof of ownership, which corresponds to your account’s deposit. Or, if you have funds in an investment account that you’ve transferred over, statements of that transfer or account would suffice.

You have to prove the source of your downpayment funds to the lender when qualifying for a mortgage to help prevent money laundering.

Funds from the sale of another property

If you’ve recently sold a property and you’re using the proceeds of that sale as the downpayment from your new purchase, you can provide the paperwork from that transaction to substantiate your downpayment.

RRSPs through the Home Buyer’s Plan

Okay, so let’s say you don’t have all the money set aside in your savings, but you do have cash in your RRSP. Assuming you’re a first-time homebuyer, you can access the funds from your RRSP Tax-Free to use as a downpayment.

You’re able to access up to $35k individually or $70k as a couple. The money has to be paid back over the next 15 years. If you’d like more information on what this program looks like, please get in touch.

Gifted downpayment

Now, if you don’t have enough money in your savings, but you have a family member who is willing to help, they can gift you funds for your downpayment. With the increased cost of living, making it harder to save for a downpayment, receiving a gift from a family member is becoming increasingly commonplace.

Now, to qualify, the gift has to come from an immediate family member who will sign a gift letter indicating there is no schedule of repayment and that the gift doesn’t have to be repaid. Proof that the money has been deposited into your account is required through bank statements.

Gifted funds can make up part of or the entire amount of downpayment. For example, if you purchase a property for $300k and have $10k saved up, your parents can gift you the remaining $5k to make up the total 5% downpayment.

Borrowed downpayment

Suppose you aren’t fortunate enough to have a family member who can gift you a downpayment, but you have excellent credit and a high income compared to the amount you’re looking to borrow. In that case, you might qualify to borrow part or all of your downpayment.

It’s possible to borrow your downpayment as long as you include the payments in your debt service ratios. Typically this is 3% of the outstanding balance.

So there you have it, to qualify for a mortgage, you’ll need to come up with a downpayment. That can be through your resources, a property you sold, an RRSP, a gift from a family member, borrowed funds, or a combination of all five sources.

If you’d like to discuss your downpayment or anything else related to mortgage financing; it’s never too early to start the conversation about getting pre-approved for a mortgage. Please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you!

Selling Your Property? Let's Talk

Wed, 30 Nov 2022 08:16:09 GMT

If you’ve been thinking about selling your existing property, for whatever reason, it would be in your best interest to connect with an independent mortgage professional before calling your real estate agent or listing it yourself.

And while talking with your mortgage professional might not sound like the most logical place to start, here are a few scenarios that explain why it makes the most sense.

If you’re buying a new property

If you’re selling your property, chances are, you’ll have to move somewhere! So, if you plan on buying a new property using the equity from the sale of your existing property, chances are you’ll need a new mortgage.

Don’t assume that just because you’ve secured mortgage financing before, that you’ll qualify again. Mortgage rules are constantly changing; make sure you have a pre-approval in place before you list your property.

Also, by connecting with a mortgage professional first, you can look into your existing mortgage terms. You might be able to port your mortgage instead of getting a new one, which could save you some money.

If you’re not buying a new property

Even if you aren’t buying a new property and want to sell your existing property, it’s still a good idea to connect with a mortgage professional first, as we can look at the cost of breaking your mortgage together.

Unless you have an open mortgage, or a line of credit, there will be a penalty to break your mortgage. The goal is to work on a plan to minimize your penalty. Because of how mortgage penalties work, sometimes it’s just a matter of waiting a few months to save thousands. You'll never know unless you take a look at the details.

Marital breakdown

The simple truth is that marriages break down. When that happens, often, people want closure, and unfortunately, they make decisions without really thinking them through or seeing the full picture. So, instead of simply selling the family home because that feels like the only option, please know that special programs exist that allow one party to buy out the former spouse. The key here is to have a legal separation agreement is in place.

If you’d like to discuss the sale of your property and your plans for the future, connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you!

Mortgage Financing Explained

Wed, 23 Nov 2022 08:16:12 GMT

If you’re like most Canadians, chances are you don’t have enough money in the bank to buy a property outright. So, you need a mortgage. When you’re ready, it would be a pleasure to help you assess and secure the best mortgage available. But until then, here’s some information on what to consider when selecting the best mortgage to lower your overall cost of borrowing.

When getting a mortgage, the property you own is held as collateral and interest is charged on the money you’ve borrowed. Your mortgage will be paid back over a defined period of time, usually 25 years; this is called amortization. Your amortization is then broken into terms that outline the interest cost varying in length from 6 months to 10 years. From there, each mortgage will have a list of features that outline the terms of the mortgage.

When assessing the suitability of a mortgage, your number one goal should be to keep your cost of borrowing as low as possible. And contrary to conventional wisdom, this doesn’t always mean choosing the mortgage with the lowest rate. It means thinking through your financial and life situation and choosing the mortgage that best suits your needs.

Choosing a mortgage with a low rate is a part of lowering your borrowing costs, but it’s certainly not the only factor. There are many other factors to consider; here are a few of them:

How long do you anticipate living in the property? This will help you decide on an appropriate term.
Do you plan on moving for work, or do you need the flexibility to move in the future? This could help you decide if portability is important to you.
What does the prepayment penalty look like if you have to break your term? This is probably the biggest factor in lowering your overall cost of borrowing.
How is the lender’s interest rate differential calculated, what figures do they use? This is very tough to figure out on your own. Get help.
What are the prepayment privileges? If you’d like to pay down your mortgage faster.
How is the mortgage registered on the title? This could impact your ability to switch to another lender upon renewal without incurring new legal costs, or it could mean increased flexibility down the line.
Should you consider a fixed rate, variable rate, HELOC, or a reverse mortgage? There are many different types of mortgages; each has its own pros and cons.
What is the size of your downpayment? Coming up with more money down might lower (or eliminate) mortgage insurance premiums, saving you thousands of dollars.

So again, while the interest rate is important, it’s certainly not the only consideration when assessing the suitability of a mortgage. Obviously, the conversation is so much more than just the lowest rate. The best advice is to work with an independent mortgage professional who has your best interest in mind and knows exactly how to keep your cost of borrowing as low as possible.

You will often find that mortgages with the rock bottom, lowest rates, can have potential hidden costs built in to the mortgage terms that will cost you a lot of money down the road. Sure, a rate that is 0.10% lower could save you a few dollars a month in payments, but if the mortgage is restrictive, breaking the mortgage halfway through the term could cost you thousands or tens of thousands of dollars. Which obviously negates any interest saved in going with a lower rate.

It would be a pleasure to walk you through the fine print of mortgage financing to ensure you can secure the best mortgage with the lowest overall cost of borrowing, given your financial and life situation. Please connect anytime!

Paying Off Your Mortgage As Quickly As Possible

Wed, 16 Nov 2022 08:16:20 GMT

Being a home owner is excellent, having a huge mortgage isn’t. So, if you have a mortgage that you’re looking to get rid of as quickly as possible, here are four things you should consider doing.

Accelerate your payments

Making the change from monthly payments to accelerated bi-weekly payments is one of the easiest ways you can make a difference to the bottom line of your mortgage. Most people don’t even notice the difference or increased payment.

A traditional mortgage with monthly payments splits the amount owing annually into 12 equal payments. Accelerated biweekly is simply taking a regular monthly payment and dividing it in two, but instead of making 24 payments, you make 26. The extra two payments accelerate the paying down of your mortgage.

Increase your regular mortgage payments

Chances are, depending on the terms of your existing mortgage, you can increase your regular mortgage payment by 10-25%. Alternatively, some lenders even offer the ability to double-up your mortgage payments. These are great options as any additional payments will be applied directly to the principal amount owing on your mortgage instead of a prepayment of interest.

Make a lump-sum payment

Depending on your lender and your mortgage product, you should be able to put down anywhere from 10-25% of the original mortgage balance in a bulk payment. Some lenders are particular about when you can make these payments; however, you should be eligible if you haven’t taken advantage of a lump sum payment yet this year.

Making a lump-sum payment is a great option if you’ve come into some money and you’d like to apply it to your mortgage. As this will lower your principal amount owing on the mortgage, it will reduce the amount of interest charged over the life of the mortgage.

Review your options regularly

As your mortgage payments debit from your bank account directly, it’s easy to put your mortgage on auto-pilot and not think twice about it until your term is up for renewal. Unfortunately, this removes you from the driver's seat and doesn’t allow you to make informed decisions about your mortgage or keep up to date with market conditions.

So let’s talk about an annual mortgage review. Working through an annual mortgage review with an independent mortgage professional is beneficial as there may be opportunities to refinance your mortgage and lower your overall cost of borrowing. By reviewing your mortgage at least once a year, you can be sure that you’ve always got the best mortgage for you! There is no cost involved here, just a quick assessment and peace of mind.

If you’ve got questions about your existing mortgage or want to compare your mortgage to options available today, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Get Protection From A Pre-approval

Wed, 09 Nov 2022 08:15:42 GMT

There is no doubt about it, buying a home can be an emotional experience. Especially in a competitive housing market where you feel compelled to bid over the asking price to have a shot at getting into the market.

Buying a home is a game of balancing needs and wants while being honest with yourself about those very needs and wants. It’s hard to get it right, figuring out what’s negotiable and what isn’t, what you can live with and what you can’t live without.

Finding that balance between what makes sense in your head and what feels right in your heart is challenging. And the further you are in the process, the more desperate you may feel.

One of the biggest mistakes you can make when shopping for a property is to fall in love with something you can’t afford. Doing this almost certainly guarantees that nothing else will compare, and you will inevitably find yourself “settling” for something that is actually quite nice. Something that would have been perfect had you not already fallen in love with something out of your price range.

So before you ever look at a property, you should know exactly what you can qualify for so that you can shop within a set price range and you won’t be disappointed.

Protect yourself with a mortgage pre-approval. A pre-approval does a few things

It will outline your buying power. You will be able to shop with confidence, knowing exactly how much you can spend.
It will uncover any issues that might arise in qualifying for a mortgage, for example, mistakes on your credit bureau.
It will outline the necessary supporting documentation required to get a mortgage so you can be prepared.
It will secure a rate for 30 to 120 days, depending on your mortgage product.
It will save your heart from the pain of falling in love with something you can’t afford.

Obviously, there is nothing wrong with looking at all types of property and getting a good handle on the market; however, a pre-approval will protect you from believing you can qualify for more than you can actually afford.

Get a pre-approval before you start shopping; your heart will thank you.

If you’d like to walk through your financial situation and get pre-approved for a mortgage, let’s talk. It would be a pleasure to work with you!

What You Need To Know About Co-Signing A Mortgage

Wed, 02 Nov 2022 07:16:16 GMT

So you’re thinking about co-signing on a mortgage? Great, let’s talk about what that looks like. Although it’s nice to be in a position to help someone qualify for a mortgage, it’s not a decision that you should make lightly. Co-signing a mortgage could have a significant impact on your financial future. Here are some things to consider.

You’re fully responsible for the mortgage.

Regardless if you’re the principal borrower, co-borrower, or co-signor, if your name is on the mortgage, you are 100% responsible for the debt of the mortgage. Although the term co-signor makes it sound like you’re somehow removed from the actual mortgage, you have all the same legal obligations as everyone else on the mortgage. When you co-sign for a mortgage, you guarantee that the mortgage payments will be made, even if you aren’t the one making them.

So, if the primary applicant cannot make the payments for whatever reason, you’ll be expected to make them on their behalf. If payments aren’t made, and the mortgage goes into default, the lender will take legal action. This could negatively impact your credit score. So it’s an excellent idea to make sure you trust the primary applicant or have a way to monitor that payments are, in fact, being made so that you don’t end up in a bad financial situation.

You’re on the mortgage until they can qualify to remove you.

Once the initial mortgage term has been completed, you won’t be automatically removed from the mortgage. The primary applicant will have to make a new application in their own name and qualify for the mortgage on their own merit. If they don’t qualify, you’ll be kept on the mortgage for the next term.

So before co-signing, it’s a good idea to discuss how long you can expect your name will be on the mortgage. Having a clear and open conversation with the primary applicant and your independent mortgage professional will help outline expectations.

Co-signing a mortgage impacts your debt service ratio.

When you co-sign for a mortgage, all of the debt of the co-signed mortgage is counted in your debt service ratios. This means that if you’re looking to qualify for another mortgage in the future, you’ll have to include the payments of the co-signed mortgage in those calculations, even though you aren’t the one making the payments directly.

As this could significantly impact the amount you could borrow in the future, before you co-sign a mortgage, you’ll want to assess your financial future and decide if co-signing makes sense.

Co-signing a mortgage means helping someone get ahead.

While there are certainly things to consider when agreeing to co-sign on a mortgage application, chances are, by being a co-signor, you'll be helping someone you care for get ahead in life. The key to co-signing well is to outline expectations and over-communicate through the mortgage process.

If you have any questions about co-signing on a mortgage or about the mortgage application process in general, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 26th, 2022

Wed, 26 Oct 2022 14:33:12 GMT

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

October 26, 2022

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 3¾%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3¾%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Inflation around the world remains high and broadly based. This reflects the strength of the global recovery from the pandemic, a series of global supply disruptions, and elevated commodity prices, particularly for energy, which have been pushed up by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The strength of the US dollar is adding to inflationary pressures in many countries. Tighter monetary policies aimed at controlling inflation are weighing on economic activity around the world. As economies slow and supply disruptions ease, global inflation is expected to come down.

In the United States, labour markets remain very tight even as restrictive financial conditions are slowing economic activity. The Bank projects no growth in the US economy through most of next year. In the euro area, the economy is forecast to contract in the quarters ahead, largely due to acute energy shortages. China’s economy appears to have picked up after the recent round of pandemic lockdowns, although ongoing challenges related to its property market will continue to weigh on growth. Overall, the Bank projects that global growth will slow from 3% in 2022 to about 1½% in 2023, and then pick back up to roughly 2½% in 2024. This is a slower pace of growth than was projected in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In Canada, the economy continues to operate in excess demand and labour markets remain tight. The demand for goods and services is still running ahead of the economy’s ability to supply them, putting upward pressure on domestic inflation. Businesses continue to report widespread labour shortages and, with the full reopening of the economy, strong demand has led to a sharp rise in the price of services.

The effects of recent policy rate increases by the Bank are becoming evident in interest-sensitive areas of the economy: housing activity has retreated sharply, and spending by households and businesses is softening. Also, the slowdown in international demand is beginning to weigh on exports. Economic growth is expected to stall through the end of this year and the first half of next year as the effects of higher interest rates spread through the economy. The Bank projects GDP growth will slow from 3¼% this year to just under 1% next year and 2% in 2024.

In the last three months, CPI inflation has declined from 8.1% to 6.9%, primarily due to a fall in gasoline prices. However, price pressures remain broadly based, with two-thirds of CPI components increasing more than 5% over the past year. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are not yet showing meaningful evidence that underlying price pressures are easing. Near-term inflation expectations remain high, increasing the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched.

The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease as higher interest rates help rebalance demand and supply, price pressures from global supply disruptions fade, and the past effects of higher commodity prices dissipate. CPI inflation is projected to move down to about 3% by the end of 2023, and then return to the 2% target by the end of 2024.

Given elevated inflation and inflation expectations, as well as ongoing demand pressures in the economy, the Governing Council expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further. Future rate increases will be influenced by our assessments of how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflation expectations are responding. Quantitative tightening is complementing increases in the policy rate. We are resolute in our commitment to restore price stability for Canadians and will continue to take action as required to achieve the 2% inflation target.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 7, 2022. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on January 25, 2023.

View the October 2022 Monetary Policy Report

Costs Associated with Buying Property

Wed, 19 Oct 2022 07:15:03 GMT

When calculating if you can afford to purchase a property, don’t just figure out a rough downpayment and quickly move on from there. Several other costs need to be considered when buying a property; these are called your closing costs. Closing costs refer to the things you’ll have to pay for out of your pocket and the amount of money necessary to finalize the purchase of a property.

And like most things in life, it pays to plan ahead when it comes to closing costs. Closing costs should be part of the pre-approval conversation as they are just as important as saving for your downpayment.

Now, if your mortgage is high-ratio and requires mortgage default insurance, the lender will need to confirm that you have at least 1.5% of the purchase price available to close the mortgage. This is in addition to your downpayment. So if your downpayment is 10% of the purchase price, you’ll want to have at least 11.5% available to bring everything together. But of course, the more cash you have to fall back on, the better.

So with that said, here is a list of the things that will cost you money when you’re buying a property. As prices vary per service, if you’d like a more accurate estimate of costs, please connect anytime, it would be a pleasure to walk through the exact numbers with you.

Inspection or Appraisal

A home inspection is when you hire a professional to assess the property's condition to make sure that you won’t be surprised by unexpected issues. An appraisal is when you hire a professional to compare the property's value against other properties that have recently sold in the area. The cost of a home inspection is yours, while the appraisal cost is sometimes covered by your mortgage default insurance and sometimes covered by you!

Lawyer or Notary Fees

To handle all the legal paperwork, you’re required to hire a legal real estate professional. They’ll be responsible for transferring the title from the seller's name into your name and make sure the lender is registered correctly on the title. Chances are, this will be one of your most significant expenses, except if you live in a province with a property transfer tax.

Taxes

Depending on which province you live in and the purchase price of the property you’re buying, you might have to pay a property transfer tax or land transfer tax. This cost can be high, upwards of 1-2% of the purchase price. So you’ll want to know the numbers well ahead of time.

Insurance

Before you can close on mortgage financing, all financial institutions want to see that you have property/home insurance in place for when you take possession. If disaster strikes and something happens to the property, your lender must be listed on your insurance policy.

Unlike property insurance, which is mandatory, you might also consider mortgage insurance, life insurance, or a disability insurance policy that protects you in case of unforeseen events. Not necessary, but worth a conversation.

Moving Expenses

Congratulations, you just bought a new property; now you have to get all your stuff there! Don’t underestimate the cost of moving. If you’re moving across the country, the cost of hiring a moving company is steep, while renting a moving truck is a little more reasonable; it all adds up. Hopefully, if you’re moving locally, your costs amount to gas money and pizza for friends.

Utilities

Hooking up new services to a property is more time-consuming than costly. However, if you’re moving to a new province or don’t have a history of paying utilities, you might be required to come up with a deposit for services. It doesn’t really make sense to buy a property if you can’t afford to turn on the power or connect the water.

So there you have it; this covers most of the costs associated with buying a new property. However, this list is by no means exhaustive, but as mentioned earlier, planning for these costs is a good idea and should be part of the pre-approval process.

If you have any questions about your closing costs or anything else mortgage-related, please connect anytime; it would be great to hear from you!

Mortgage Advice to Help You Through a Separation

Wed, 12 Oct 2022 07:16:18 GMT

With the latest stats claiming that about half of marriages end in divorce and with around three-quarters of Canadians being homeowners, it’s important to know how to handle your mortgage if you decide to separate. Here’s a quick list of things to consider.

Keep making your payments.

A mortgage is a legally binding contract between you and the lender. It doesn’t take marriage into account. If your name appears on the mortgage, you're responsible for making sure the regular payments are made. A marital breakdown does not give you an excuse not to make your mortgage payments.

If, during your marriage, you've relied on your spouse to make the mortgage payments and you aren’t certain payments are being made after separating, it's in your best interest to contact the lender directly to verify your mortgage is being paid. If payments aren't being made, it could affect your credit score or worse; the lender could start foreclosure proceedings.

There is always a financial cost to break your mortgage.

When working through how to split your finances, you decided to either refinance your mortgage, remove someone from the title, or sell the property, keep in mind that you will incur legal costs.

If you’re in the middle of a term, the penalty for breaking your mortgage might be significant, especially if you have a fixed-rate mortgage. It’s certainly worth contacting your mortgage lender directly to verify the cost of breaking your mortgage. Having that information accessible when writing out your separation agreement will provide increased clarity.

Listing your marital status as separated or divorced.

When completing a mortgage application for securing new mortgage financing, when you list your marital status as separated or divorced, you can expect that a lender will want to see your legal separation agreement or your divorce papers. The lender wants to make sure you aren’t responsible for support payments. So if you haven’t finalized the paperwork, expect delays in securing mortgage financing.

It could be harder to qualify for a new mortgage.

With the separation of assets also comes the separation of incomes. If you qualified for your existing mortgage on a double income, you might find it hard to maintain the same quality of lifestyle post-separation.

This is where careful planning comes in. Working closely with your independent mortgage professional will ensure you understand exactly where you stand. You’ll want to put together a plan for how to handle the mortgage on the matrimonial home.

Purchasing the matrimonial home from your ex.

There are special considerations given to people going through a separation to buy out the matrimonial home. Instead of looking at the transaction like a refinance where you can only borrow up to 80% of the property’s value, lenders will consider one spouse buying out the other up to a 95% loan to value ratio. This comes in handy when dividing assets and liabilities.

Navigating the ins and outs of mortgage financing isn’t something you have to do alone. If you're going through a separation and you’d like to discuss all your mortgage options, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk you through the process.

Fixed-Rate or Variable-Rate Mortgage?

Wed, 05 Oct 2022 07:16:00 GMT

If you're looking to buy a new property, refinance, or renew an existing mortgage, chances are, you're considering either a fixed or variable rate mortgage. Figuring out which one is the best is entirely up to you! So here's some information to help you along the way.

Firstly, let's talk about the fixed-rate mortgage as this is most common and most heavily endorsed by the banks. With a fixed-rate mortgage, your interest rate is "fixed" for a certain term, anywhere from 6 months to 10 years, with the typical term being five years. If market rates fluctuate anytime after you sign on the dotted line, your mortgage rate won't change. You're a rock; your rate is set in stone. Typically a fixed-rate mortgage has a higher rate than a variable.

Alternatively, a variable rate is not set in stone; instead, it fluctuates with the market. The variable rate is a component (either plus or minus) to the prime rate. So if the prime rate (set by the government and banks) is 2.45% and the current variable rate is Prime minus .45%, your effective rate would be 2%. If three months after you sign your mortgage documents, the prime rate goes up by .25%, your rate would then move to 2.25%. Typically, variable rates come with a five-year term, although some lenders allow you to go with a shorter term.

At first glance, the fixed-rate mortgage seems to be the safe bet, while the variable-rate mortgage appears to be the wild card. However, this might not be the case. Here's the problem, what this doesn't account for is the fact that a fixed-rate mortgage and a variable-rate mortgage have two very different ways of calculating the penalty should you need to break your mortgage.

If you decide to break your variable rate mortgage, regardless of how much you have left on your term, you will end up owing three months interest, which works out to roughly two to two and a half payments. Easy to calculate and not that bad.

With a fixed-rate mortgage, you will pay the greater of either three months interest or what is called an interest rate differential (IRD) penalty. As every lender calculates their IRD penalty differently, and that calculation is based on market fluctuations, the contract rate at the time you signed your mortgage, the discount they provided you at that time, and the remaining time left on your term, there is no way to guess what that penalty will be. However, with that said, if you end up paying an IRD, it won't be pleasant.

If you've ever heard horror stories of banks charging outrageous penalties to break a mortgage, this is an interest rate differential. It's not uncommon to see penalties of 10x the amount for a fixed-rate mortgage compared to a variable-rate mortgage or up to 4.5% of the outstanding mortgage balance.

So here's a simple comparison.

A fixed-rate mortgage has a higher initial payment than a variable-rate mortgage but remains stable throughout your term. The penalty for breaking a fixed-rate mortgage is unpredictable and can be upwards of 4.5% of the outstanding mortgage balance.

A variable-rate mortgage has a lower initial payment than a fixed-rate mortgage but fluctuates with prime throughout your term. The penalty for breaking a variable-rate mortgage is predictable at 3 months interest which equals roughly two and a half payments.

The goal of any mortgage should be to pay the least amount of money back to the lender. This is called lowering your overall cost of borrowing. While a fixed-rate mortgage provides you with a more stable payment, the variable rate does a better job of accommodating when "life happens."

If you’ve got questions, connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work through the options together.

Finance Your Home Renovations

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 07:16:22 GMT

If you’re looking to do some home renovations but don’t have all the cash up front to pay for materials and contractors, here are a few ways to use mortgage financing to bring everything together.

Existing Home Owners - Mortgage Refinance

Probably the most straightforward solution, if you’re an existing homeowner, would be to access home equity through a mortgage refinance.

Depending on the terms of your existing mortgage, a mid-term mortgage refinance might make good financial sense; there’s even a chance of lowering your overall cost of borrowing while adding the cost of the renovations to your mortgage.

As your financial situation is unique, it never hurts to have the conversation, run the numbers, and look at your options. Let’s talk!

If you're not in a huge rush, it might be worth waiting until your existing term is up for renewal. This is a great time to refinance as you won’t incur a penalty to break your existing mortgage.

Now, regardless of when you refinance, mid-term or at renewal, you’re able to access up to 80% of the appraised value of your home, assuming you qualify for the increased mortgage amount.

Home Equity Line of Credit

Instead of talking with a bank about an unsecured line of credit, if you have significant home equity, a home equity line of credit (HELOC) could be a better option for you.

An unsecured line of credit usually comes with a pretty high rate. In contrast, a HELOC uses your home as collateral, allowing the lender to give you considerably more favourable terms.

There are several different ways to use a HELOC, so if you’d like to talk more about what this could look like for you, connect anytime!

Buying a Property - Purchase Plus Improvements

If you’re looking to purchase a property that could use some work, some lenders will allow you to add extra money to your mortgage to cover the cost of renovations. This is called a purchase plus improvements. The key thing to keep in mind is that the renovations must increase the value of the property. There is a process to follow and a lot of details to go over, but we can do this together.

So if you’d like to discuss using your mortgage to cover the cost of renovating your home, please connect anytime!

4 Signs You’re Ready for Homeownership

Wed, 21 Sep 2022 07:15:54 GMT

Buying your first home is a big deal. And while you may feel like you’re ready to take that step, here are 4 things that will prove it out.

1. You have at least 5% available for a downpayment.

To buy your first home, you need to come up with at least 5% for a downpayment. From there, you’ll be expected to have roughly 1.5% of the purchase price set aside for closing costs.

If you’ve saved your downpayment by accumulating your own funds, it means you have a positive cash flow which is a good thing. However, if you don’t quite have enough saved up on your own, but you have a family member who is willing to give you a gift to assist you, that works too.

2. You have established credit.

Building a credit score takes some time. Before any lender considers you for mortgage financing, they want to see that you have an established history of repaying the money you’ve already borrowed. Typically two trade lines, for a period of two years, with a minimum amount of $2000, should work!

Now, if you’ve had some credit issues in the past, it doesn’t mean you aren’t ready to be a homeowner. However, it might mean a little more planning is required! A co-signor can be considered here as well.

3. You have the income to make your mortgage payments. And then some.

If you’re going to borrow money to buy a house, the lender wants to make sure that you have the ability to pay it back. Plus interest. The ideal situation is to have a permanent full-time position where you’re past probation. Now, if you rely on any inconsistent forms of income, having a two-year history is required.

A good rule of thumb is to keep the costs of homeownership to under a third of your gross income, leaving you with two-thirds of your income to pay for your life.

4. You’ve discussed mortgage financing with a professional.

Buying your first home can be quite a process. With all the information available online, it’s hard to know where to start. While you might feel ready, there are lots of steps to take; way more than can be outlined in a simple article like this one.

So if you think you’re ready to buy your first home, the best place to start is with a preapproval! Let's discuss your financial situation, talk through your downpayment options, look at your credit score, assess your income and liabilities, and ultimately see what kind of mortgage you can qualify for to become a homeowner!

Please connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you!

What Banks Won’t Tell You About Mortgage Financing

Wed, 14 Sep 2022 07:15:35 GMT

If you’re looking to buy a property or have a mortgage up for renewal, and you’re thinking about connecting with your bank directly, save yourself a lot of money and regret by reading this article first.

Here are four things that your bank won’t tell you, accompanied by four reasons that explain why working with an independent mortgage professional is in your best interest.

Banks have Limited Access to Mortgage Products.

Now, while this one may seem pretty straightforward, if you’re dealing with a single institution, they can only offer mortgages from their product catalogue. This means that you’ll be restricted to their qualifications which are usually very narrow. Working with a single institution significantly limits your options, especially if your financial situation isn’t straightforward.

In contrast, dealing with an independent mortgage professional, you will have access to products from over 200 lenders, including banks, monoline lenders, credit unions, finance companies, alternative lenders, institutional B lenders, Mortgage Investment Corporations, and private funds. Working with an independent mortgage professional will give you considerably more options to secure a better mortgage.

Banks Employ Salespeople, not Mortgage Experts.

Banks don’t employ mortgage experts; they employ salespeople. Banks pay and incentivize salespeople to sell their products. There is a fundamental misalignment of values here. If the bank incentivizes a banker to make a profit for the bank, how can they at the same time advocate for you and your best interest? They can’t.

Banks don’t have your best interest in mind. In fact, the more money they make off of you, the better it is for their bottom line.

However, when you work with an independent mortgage professional, you get the experience of someone who understands the intricacies of mortgage financing and will advocate on your behalf to get you the best mortgage. It’s actually in our best interest to assist you in finding the mortgage with the best terms for you.

Once your mortgage completes, we get paid a standardized finder’s fee by the lender for arranging the financing. So although we get paid by the lender, that lender has had to compete with other lenders to earn your business.

When you work with an independent mortgage professional, everyone wins. You get the best mortgage available, we get paid a standardized finder’s fee, and the lender gets a new borrower.

Banks Rarely Offer You Their Best Terms Upfront.

Banks are in the business of making money, and they’re usually pretty good at it. As such, banks will rarely offer you their best terms at the outset of your negotiation.

This is especially true if you’re looking to refinance your existing mortgage. With over half of Canadians simply accepting the renewal offer they get sent in the mail without question, banks don’t have to put their best rate forward. Instead, they rely on you to be ignorant of the process and will take advantage of your trust in them.

When you work with an independent mortgage professional, we don’t play games with rates and terms. Our goal is always to seek out the lender who has the best mortgage for you from the start of the process, and if there are any negotiations to be had, we handle them for you. There is no reason for us to do otherwise. In fact, the better we do our job, the more likely it is that you’ll be happy with our services and refer your friends and family.

Banks Promote Restrictive Mortgage Products.

As if it’s not bad enough that banks don’t offer their best terms upfront, they actually promote mortgage products that are restrictive in nature. The fine print in your mortgage contract matters; understanding it is challenging. Banks do what they can to make it hard for you to leave.

Now, if you’ve ever heard stories of outrageous penalties being charged, this is what’s called an Interest Rate Differential penalty (IRD). Each lender has its own way of calculating the IRD. Chartered banks are known for their restrictive mortgages and high IRD penalties.

When you work with an independent mortgage professional, we take the time to listen to your goals and assess your mortgage needs based on your life circumstances.

The best mortgage is the one that lowers your overall cost of borrowing. So not only will we walk through the cost of the mortgage financing, but we’ll also clearly outline the costs incurred should you need to break your mortgage before the end of your term. This might be the deciding factor in choosing the right lender and mortgage for you.

Working with an Independent Mortgage Professional is in Your Best Interest.

Banks have limitations to the mortgage products they offer. Working with an independent mortgage professional gives you mortgage options!

Bankers work for the bank; they are incentivized to make money for the bank. An independent mortgage professional advocates on your behalf to get you the best mortgage available.

Banks rarely offer their best terms upfront; they leave negotiations up to you. An independent mortgage professional outlines the best terms from multiple lenders at the start of the process.

Banks promote restrictive mortgage products that make it difficult to leave them. An independent mortgage broker will outline all the costs associated with different mortgage products and recommend the mortgage best suited for your needs.

So if you’d like to talk about the best mortgage product for you, you’ve come to the right place. Please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Sept 7th, 2022

Wed, 07 Sep 2022 14:16:41 GMT

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 75 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

September 7, 2022

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 3¼%, with the Bank Rate at 3½% and the deposit rate at 3¼%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

The global and Canadian economies are evolving broadly in line with the Bank’s July projection. The effects of COVID-19 outbreaks, ongoing supply disruptions, and the war in Ukraine continue to dampen growth and boost prices.

Global inflation remains high and measures of core inflation are moving up in most countries. In response, central banks around the world continue to tighten monetary policy. Economic activity in the United States has moderated, although the US labour market remains tight. China is facing ongoing challenges from COVID shutdowns. Commodity prices have been volatile: oil, wheat and lumber prices have moderated while natural gas prices have risen.

In Canada, CPI inflation eased in July to 7.6% from 8.1% because of a drop in gasoline prices. However, inflation excluding gasoline increased and data indicate a further broadening of price pressures, particularly in services. The Bank’s core measures of inflation continued to move up, ranging from 5% to 5.5% in July. Surveys suggest that short-term inflation expectations remain high. The longer this continues, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched.

The Canadian economy continues to operate in excess demand and labour markets remain tight. Canada’s GDP grew by 3.3% in the second quarter. While this was somewhat weaker than the Bank had projected, indicators of domestic demand were very strong – consumption grew by about 9½% and business investment was up by close to 12%. With higher mortgage rates, the housing market is pulling back as anticipated, following unsustainable growth during the pandemic. The Bank continues to expect the economy to moderate in the second half of this year, as global demand weakens and tighter monetary policy here in Canada begins to bring demand more in line with supply.

Given the outlook for inflation, the Governing Council still judges that the policy interest rate will need to rise further. Quantitative tightening is complementing increases in the policy rate. As the effects of tighter monetary policy work through the economy, we will be assessing how much higher interest rates need to go to return inflation to target. The Governing Council remains resolute in its commitment to price stability and will continue to take action as required to achieve the 2% inflation target.

INFORMATION NOTE

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 26, 2022. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

Standard or Collateral Charge Mortgage. What’s best for you?

Wed, 31 Aug 2022 07:15:01 GMT

When arranging mortgage financing, your mortgage lender will register your mortgage in one of two ways. Either with a standard charge mortgage or a collateral charge mortgage. Let’s look at the differences between the two.

Standard charge mortgage

This is your good old-fashioned mortgage. A standard charge mortgage is the mortgage you most likely think about when you consider mortgage financing. Here, the amount you borrow from the lender is the amount that is registered against the title to protect the lender if you default on your mortgage.

When your mortgage term is up, you can either renew your existing mortgage or, if it makes more financial sense, you can switch your mortgage to another lender. As long as you aren’t changing any of the fine print, the new lender will usually cover the cost of the switch.

A standard charge mortgage has set terms and is non-advanceable. This means that if you need to borrow more money, you'll need to reapply and requalify for a new mortgage. So there will be costs associated with breaking your existing mortgage and costs to register a new one.

Collateral charge mortgage

A collateral charge mortgage is a mortgage that can have multiple parts, usually with a re-advanceable component. It can include many different financing options like a personal loan or line of credit. Your mortgage is registered against the title in a way that should you need to borrow more money down the line; you can do so fairly easily.

A home equity line of credit is a good example of a collateral charge mortgage.

Unlike a standard charge mortgage, here, your lender will register a higher amount than what you actually borrow. This could be for the property's full value, or some lenders will go up to 125% of your property's value.

In the future, if the value of your property appreciates, with a collateral charge mortgage, you don't have to rewrite your existing mortgage to borrow more money (assuming you qualify). This will save you from any costs associated with breaking your existing mortgage and registering a new one.

However, if you’re looking to switch your mortgage to another lender at the end of your term, you might be forced to discharge your mortgage and incur legal fees. Also, by registering your mortgage with a collateral charge, you potentially limit your ability to secure a second mortgage.

So what’s a better option for you?

Well, there are benefits and drawbacks to both. Finding the best option for you really depends on your financial situation and what you believe gives you the most flexibility. This is probably a question better handled in a conversation rather than in an article.

With that said, undoubtedly, the best option is to work with an independent mortgage professional. It’s our job to understand the intricacies of mortgage financing, listen to and assess your needs, and recommend the best mortgage to meet your needs. As we work with many lenders, we can provide you with options. Don’t get stuck dealing with a single institution that may only offer you a collateral charge mortgage when what you need is a standard charge mortgage.

So if you’d like to have a conversation about mortgage financing, please get in touch. It would be a pleasure to work with you and answer any questions you might have.

How To Avoid An Accidental Home Purchase

Wed, 24 Aug 2022 07:15:16 GMT

Buying a property might actually be easier than you think. So, if you have NO desire AT ALL to qualify for a mortgage, here are some great steps you can take to ensure you don’t accidentally buy a property.

Fair warning, this article might get a little cheeky.

Quit your job.

First things first, ditch that job. One of the best ways to make sure you won’t qualify for a mortgage is to be unemployed. Yep, most mortgage lenders aren’t in the practice of lending money to unemployed people!

If you already have a preapproval in place and don’t want to go through with financing, no problems. Unexpectedly quit your job mid-application. Because, even if you’re making a lateral move or taking a better job, any change in employment status can negatively impact your approval.

Spend All Your Savings.

To get a mortgage, you’ll have to bring some money to the table. In Canada, the minimum downpayment required is 5% of the purchase price. Now, if the goal is not to get a mortgage, spending all your money and having absolutely nothing in your account is a surefire way to ensure you won’t qualify for a mortgage. So, if you’ve been looking for a reason to go out and buy a new vehicle, consider this your permission.

Collect as Much Debt as Possible.

After quitting your job and spending all your savings, you should definitely go out and incur as much debt as possible! The higher the payments, the better.

You see, one of the main qualifiers on a mortgage is called your debt-service ratio. This takes into count the amount of money you make compared to the amount of money you owe. So the more debt you have, the less money you’ll have leftover to finance a home.

Stop Making Your Debt Payments

So let’s say you can’t shake your job, you still have a good amount of money in the bank, and you’ve run out of ways to spend money you don’t have. Don’t panic; you can still absolutely wreck your chances of qualifying for a mortgage! Just don’t pay any of your bills on time or stop making your payments altogether.

Why would any lender want to lend you money when you have a track record of not paying back any of the money you’ve already borrowed?

Provide Ugly Supporting Documentation.

Now, if all else fails, the last chance you have to scuttle your chances of getting a mortgage is to provide the lender with really ugly documents. To support your mortgage application, lenders must complete their due diligence. Here are three ways to make sure the lender won’t be able to verify anything.

Firstly, and probably the most straightforward, make sure your name doesn’t appear anywhere on any of your statements. This way, the lender can’t be sure the documents are actually yours or not.

Secondly, when providing bank statements to prove downpayment funds, make sure there are multiple cash deposits over $1000 without explaining where the money came from. This will look like money laundering and will throw up all kinds of red flags.

And lastly, consider blacking out all your “personal information.” Just use a black Sharpie and make your paperwork look like classified FBI documents.

Follow-Through

So there you have it, to avoid an accidental home purchase, you should quit your job, spend all your money, borrow as much money as possible, stop making your payments, and make sure the lender can’t prove anything! This will ensure no one will lend you money to buy a property!

Now, on the off chance that you’d actually like to qualify for a mortgage, you’ve come to the right place. The suggestion would be to actually keep your job, save for a downpayment, limit the amount of debt you carry, make your payments on time, and provide clear documentation to support your mortgage application!

If you'd like to make sure you're on the right track, connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk through the mortgage process with you.

Reposition Your Debts Through Mortgage Financing

Wed, 17 Aug 2022 07:15:55 GMT

If you’re a homeowner looking to optimize your finances, consider taking advantage of your home’s equity to reposition any existing debts you may have.

If you’ve accumulated consumer debt, the payments required to service these debts can make it difficult to manage your daily finances. A consolidation mortgage might be a great option for you!

Simply put, debt repositioning or debt consolidation is when you combine your consumer debt with a mortgage secured to your home. To make this happen, you’ll borrow against your home’s equity.

This can mean refinancing an existing mortgage, securing a home equity line of credit, or taking out a second mortgage. Each mortgage option has its advantages which are best outlined in discussion with an independent mortgage professional.

Some of the types of debts that you can consolidate are:

Credit Card
Unsecured Line of Credit
Car Loan
Student Loans
Personal or Payday Loans

Most unsecured debt carries a high interest rate because the lender doesn't have any collateral to fall back on should you default on the loan. However, as a mortgage is secured to your home, the lender has collateral and can provide you with lower rates and more favourable terms.

Debt consolidation makes sense because it allows you to take high-interest unsecured debts and reposition them into a single low payment.

So, when considering the best mortgage for you, getting a low rate is important, but it’s not everything. Your goal should be to lower your overall cost of borrowing. A mortgage that allows for flexibility in prepayments helps with this. It’s not uncommon to find a mortgage at a great rate that allows you to increase your payments by 15% per payment, double your payments, or make a lump sum payment of up to 15% annually.

As additional payments go directly to the principal repayment of the loan, once you’ve consolidated all your debts into a single payment, it’s smart to take advantage of your prepayment privileges by paying more than just your minimum required mortgage payment, as this will help you become debt-free sooner.

While there is a lot to unpack here, if you’d like to discuss what using a mortgage to reposition your debts could look like for you, here’s a simple plan we can follow:

First, we’ll assess your existing debt to income ratio.
We’ll establish your home’s equity.
We’ll consider all your mortgage options.
Lastly, we’ll reposition your debts to help optimize your finances.

If this sounds like the plan for you, the best place to start is to connect directly. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Buying a Second Property

Wed, 10 Aug 2022 07:15:35 GMT

If you’ve been thinking about buying a second property and you’re looking to put some of the pieces together, you’ve come to the right place!

Whether you’re looking to buy a vacation property, start a rental portfolio, or help accommodate a family member, there are many reasons to buy a second property (while keeping your existing property), which might make sense for you!

Now, while there are many great reasons to buy a second property, there is also a lot to know as you walk through the process. The key here is to have absolute clarity around your why.

Ask yourself, why do you want to buy a second property? This isn’t a decision to be taken lightly or one that should be made too quickly. Buying a second property should be a strategic decision that allows you to accomplish your goals, and it should include an assessment of your overall financial health.

So with clear goals in mind, the best place to start the process is to have a conversation with an independent mortgage professional. This will allow you to assess your financial situation, outline the costs, and put together a plan to make it happen.

While purchasing a second property is similar to buying a primary residence, there are some key differences. Just because you’ve qualified in the past for your existing mortgage doesn’t mean you’ll qualify to purchase a second property.

One key difference is the amount of downpayment you might be required to come up with. A property that is owner-occupied or occupied by a family member on a rent-free basis will require less of a downpayment than if the second property will be used to generate an income. So, depending on the property's intended use, you might have to come up with as much as 25%-35% down.

This is where strategic planning comes in. Consider unlocking the equity in your existing home to finance the downpayment to purchase your second home. Here are a few ways you can go about doing that:

Securing a new mortgage if you own your property clear title
Refinancing your existing mortgage to access additional funds
Securing a home equity line of credit (HELOC)
Getting a second mortgage behind your existing first mortgage
Securing a reverse mortgage

The conversation about buying a second property should include assessing your overall financial health, leveraging your existing assets to lower your overall cost of borrowing, and figuring out the best way to accomplish your goals.

And as it's impossible to outline every scenario in a simple blog post, if you’d like to discuss your goals and put a plan together to finance a second property, connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

What is a Cashback Mortgage?

Wed, 03 Aug 2022 07:15:59 GMT

As the name implies, a cashback mortgage is similar to a standard mortgage, except that you receive a lump sum of cash upon closing. This lump sum will either be a fixed amount of money or a percentage of the mortgage amount, usually between 1-7%, depending on the mortgage term selected.

How you use the cash is entirely up to you. Some of the most common reasons to secure a cashback mortgage are to:

Cover closing costs.
Buy new furniture.
Renovate your property.
Supplement cashflow.
Consolidate higher-interest debt.

Really, you can use the cash for anything you like. It’s tax-free and paid to you directly once the mortgage closes.

Understanding the cost of a cashback mortgage.

Now, while it might appear like a cashback mortgage is a great way to get some free money, it’s not. Banks aren’t altruistic; they’re in the business of making money by lending money. Securing a mortgage that provides you with cash back at closing will cost you a higher interest rate over your mortgage term.

A cashback mortgage is like getting a fixed loan rolled into your mortgage. Your interest rate is increased to cover the additional funds being lent.

Now, with so many different cashback options available and with interest rates constantly changing, it's nearly impossible to run through specific calculations on a simple article to outline how much more you’d pay over the term. So, if you'd like to identify the true cost of securing a cashback mortgage, the best place to start is to discuss your financial situation with an independent mortgage professional.

When you work with an independent mortgage professional instead of a single bank, you receive unbiased advice, more financing options, and a clear picture of the cost associated with securing a mortgage.

Getting cashback at closing is a mortgage feature that makes the bank more money at your expense. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing; the key is to be informed of the costs involved so you can make a good decision.

Eligibility for a cashback mortgage.

Simply put, a cashback mortgage isn’t for everyone. This is a mortgage product that has tougher qualifications than standard mortgage financing. Any lender willing to offer a cashback mortgage will want to see that you have stable employment, a fabulous credit score, and healthy debt service ratios. If your mortgage application is in any way “unique,” the chances of qualifying for a cashback mortgage are pretty slim.

Breaking your mortgage term early.

In addition to paying a higher interest rate to cover the cost of receiving the cashback at closing, a cashback mortgage also limits your options down the line.

If your life circumstances change and you need to break your mortgage mid-term, depending on the conditions set out in your mortgage contract, you’ll most likely be required to either pay all of the cashback received or at least a portion, depending on how long you’ve had the mortgage.

As all cashback mortgages are tied to fixed-rate terms, so in addition to repaying the cashback, you’d also be required to pay the interest rate differential penalty; or 3 months interest, whichever is greater for breaking your mortgage term early.

Sufficed to say, should you need to pay out your mortgage early, breaking your cashback mortgage will be costly. Certainly, this is something to consider when assessing the suitability of this mortgage product.

Get independent mortgage advice.

Understanding the intricacies of mortgage financing can be difficult at the best of times. With all the different terms, rates, and mortgage products available, it’s hard to know which mortgage is best for you.

So while a mortgage that offers a cash incentive upon closing might initially seem like an attractive offer, make sure you seek out the guidance of an independent mortgage professional to help you navigate the costs associated with a cashback mortgage. While it might be a great option for you, there might be other mortgage options that better suit your needs. It's worth a conversation for sure!

If you’d like to discuss what a cashback mortgage or any other mortgage product would look like for you, please get in touch. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

How to Ensure a Smooth Home Purchase

Wed, 27 Jul 2022 07:15:30 GMT

Chances are, buying a home is one of the most important financial decisions you’ll make in your life. And as mortgage financing can be somewhat confusing at the best of times, to alleviate some of the stress and to ensure your home purchase goes as smoothly as possible, here are six very high-level steps you should follow.

While it might seem like the best place to start the home buying process is to browse MLS on your phone and then contact a Realtor to go out and look at properties, it’s not. First, you’re going to want to work with a licensed independent mortgage professional.

When you work with an independent mortgage professional, instead of working with a single bank, you’ll be working with someone who has your best interest in mind and can present you with mortgage options from several financial institutions.

The second step in the home buying process is to put together a mortgage plan. Unless you have enough money in the bank to buy a home with cash, you’re going to need a mortgage. And as mortgage financing can be challenging and not so straightforward, the best time to start planning for a mortgage is right now. Don’t make another move until you discuss your financial situation with an independent mortgage professional. It’s never too early to start planning.

As part of your mortgage plan, you’ll want to figure out what you can afford on paper, assess your credit score, run some financial scenarios, calculate mortgage payments, and have a clear picture of exactly how much money is required for a downpayment and closing costs. You’ll also be able to discuss which mortgage product is best for you, considering different mortgage terms, types, amortizations, and features.

Now, what you qualify to borrow on paper doesn’t necessarily mean you can actually afford the payments in real life. You need to consider your lifestyle and what you spend your money on. Understanding your cash flow is the key. Make a budget to verify you can actually afford your proposed mortgage payments and that you have enough funds to close on the mortgage. No one wants to be house-poor or left scrambling to come up with funds to close at the last minute.

If everything looks good at this point, the next step will be to get a preapproval in place. Now, a pre-approval is more than just typing some numbers into a form or online calculator; you need to complete a mortgage application and submit all the documents requested by your mortgage professional.

Only proceed with looking at properties when you’ve been given the green light from your mortgage professional. When you’ve found a property to purchase, you’ll work very closely with your mortgage professional to arrange mortgage financing in a short period of time. This is where being prepared pays off.

As you’ve already collected and submitted many documents upfront during the preapproval process, you should be set up for success. However, remain flexible and provide any additional documentation required by the lender to secure mortgage financing.

Once you have firm lender approval and you’ve removed conditions on the purchase agreement, don’t change anything about your financial situation until you have the keys. Don’t quit your job, don’t take out a new loan, or don’t make a large withdrawal from your bank account. Put your life into a holding pattern until you take possession of your new home.

So there you have it, six steps to ensuring a smooth home purchase:

Work with an independent mortgage professional.
Put together a mortgage plan.
Figure out what you can actually afford.
Get a pre-approval.
Provide the necessary documentation.
Don’t change anything about your financial situation until you take possession.

If you’d like to discuss your personal financial situation and find the best mortgage product for you, let’s work together. We can figure out a plan to buy a home as stress-free as possible.

Please connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you.

Benefits of Working with an Independent Mortgage Professional

Wed, 20 Jul 2022 07:16:12 GMT

If you need a mortgage, working with an independent mortgage professional will save you money and provide you with better options than dealing with a single financial institution. And if that is the only sentence you read in this entire article, you already know all you need to know.

However, if you’d like to dig a little deeper, here are some reasons that outline why working with an independent mortgage professional is in your best interest.

The best mortgage is the one that costs you the least over the long term. An independent mortgage professional can help you achieve this.

Mortgages aren’t created equally. Oftentimes slick marketing leads us to believe the lowest “sticker price” is the best value. So when it comes to mortgage financing, you might assume the mortgage with the lowest rate is the best option. This isn’t always the case.

When considering a mortgage, your goal should be to find the mortgage that will cost you the least amount of money over the total length of the mortgage. There are many factors to consider, such as your specific financial situation, the rate, initial term length, fixed or variable rate structure, amortization, and the penalties incurred should you need to break your mortgage early; the fine print matters.

An independent mortgage professional can walk through all these factors with you and will help you find the mortgage that best suits your needs. Sometimes taking a mortgage with a slightly higher rate can make sense if it gives you flexibility down the line or helps you avoid huge payout penalties.

Working the numbers with an independent mortgage professional will save you money in the long run instead of just going with what a single lender is offering.

Save time by letting an independent mortgage professional find the best mortgage product for you.

Let's face it, getting a mortgage can be challenging enough on its own. Everyone’s financial situation is a little different and making sense of lender guidelines is a full-time job in itself.

So instead of dealing with multiple lending institutions on your own, when you work with an independent mortgage professional, you submit a single mortgage application that is compared to the lending guidelines of various mortgage lenders. This will save you time as you don’t have to go from bank to bank to ensure you’re getting the best mortgage.

Simply put, an independent mortgage professional works for you and has your best interest in mind, while a bank specialist works for the bank and has the bank's best interest in mind.

It’s no secret that Canadian banks make a lot of money. It seems every quarter they turn billions of dollars in profit (despite the economic environment). They do this at the expense of their customers by charging as much interest as they can and structuring mortgages to their benefit.

It’s all about the alignment of interest. Bank employees work for the bank; the bank pays them to make money for the bank. In contrast, independent mortgage professionals are provincially licensed to work for their clients and are paid a standardized placement or finder’s fee for matching borrowers with lenders. When you work with a single bank, you only have access to the products of that bank. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, you have access to all of the lenders that mortgage professionals have relationships with and all their products.

Working with an independent mortgage professional will save you money, time, and provide you with better mortgage options. Plus, you have the added benefit of working with a licensed professional looking out for your best interest, providing you with the best possible advice.

If you’d like to know more or to discuss mortgage financing, please connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 13th, 2022

Wed, 13 Jul 2022 14:59:31 GMT

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 100 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

July 13, 2022

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 2½%, with the Bank Rate at 2¾% and the deposit rate at 2½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening (QT).

Inflation in Canada is higher and more persistent than the Bank expected in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), and will likely remain around 8% in the next few months. While global factors such as the war in Ukraine and ongoing supply disruptions have been the biggest drivers, domestic price pressures from excess demand are becoming more prominent. More than half of the components that make up the CPI are now rising by more than 5%. With this broadening of price pressures, the Bank’s core measures of inflation have moved up to between 3.9% and 5.4%. Also, surveys indicate more consumers and businesses are expecting inflation to be higher for longer, raising the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched in price- and wage-setting. If that occurs, the economic cost of restoring price stability will be higher.

Global inflation is higher, reflecting the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ongoing supply constraints, and strong demand. Many central banks are tightening monetary policy to combat inflation, and the resulting tighter financial conditions are moderating economic growth. In the United States, high inflation and rising interest rates are contributing to a slowdown in domestic demand. China’s economy is being held back by waves of restrictive measures to contain COVID-19 outbreaks. Oil prices remain high and volatile. The Bank now expects global economic growth to slow to about 3½% this year and 2% in 2023 before strengthening to 3% in 2024.

Further excess demand has built up in the Canadian economy. Labour markets are tight with a record low unemployment rate, widespread labour shortages, and increasing wage pressures. With strong demand, businesses are passing on higher input and labour costs by raising prices. Consumption is robust, led by a rebound in spending on hard-to-distance services. Business investment is solid and exports are being boosted by elevated commodity prices. The Bank estimates that GDP grew by about 4% in the second quarter. Growth is expected to slow to about 2% in the third quarter as consumption growth moderates and housing market activity pulls back following unsustainable strength during the pandemic.

The Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by 3½% in 2022, 1¾% in 2023, and 2½% in 2024. Economic activity will slow as global growth moderates and tighter monetary policy works its way through the economy. This, combined with the resolution of supply disruptions, will bring demand and supply back into balance and alleviate inflationary pressures. Global energy prices are also projected to decline. The July outlook has inflation starting to come back down later this year, easing to about 3% by the end of next year and returning to the 2% target by the end of 2024.

With the economy clearly in excess demand, inflation high and broadening, and more businesses and consumers expecting high inflation to persist for longer, the Governing Council decided to front-load the path to higher interest rates by raising the policy rate by 100 basis points today. The Governing Council continues to judge that interest rates will need to rise further, and the pace of increases will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and inflation. Quantitative tightening continues and is complementing increases in the policy interest rate. The Governing Council is resolute in its commitment to price stability and will continue to take action as required to achieve the 2% inflation target.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 7, 2022. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on October 26, 2022.

Alternative Lending Provides You With Options

Wed, 06 Jul 2022 07:15:53 GMT

Alternative lending refers to any lending practices that fall outside the normal banking channels. Alternative lenders think outside the box and offer solutions to Canadians who wouldn’t otherwise qualify for traditional mortgage financing.

In an ideal world, we’d all qualify for the best mortgage terms available. However, this isn’t the case. Securing the most favourable terms depends on your financial situation. Here are a few circumstances where alternative lending might make sense for you.

Damaged Credit

Bad credit doesn’t disqualify you from mortgage financing. Many alternative lenders look at the strength of your employment, income, and your downpayment or equity to offer you mortgage financing. Credit is important, but it’s not everything, especially if there is a reasonable explanation for the damaged credit.

When dealing with alternative lending, the interest rates will be a little higher than traditional mortgage financing. But if the choice is between buying a property or not, or getting a mortgage or not, having options is a good thing. Alternative lenders provide you with mortgage options. That’s what they do best.

So, if you have damaged credit, consider using an alternative lender to provide you with a short-term mortgage option. This will give you time to establish better credit and secure a mortgage with more favourable terms. Use an alternative lender to bridge that gap!

Self-Employment

If you run your own business, you most likely have considerable write-offs that make sense for tax planning reasons but don’t do so much for your verifiable income. Traditional lenders want to see verifiable income; alternative lenders can be considerably more understanding and offer competitive products.

As interest rates on alternative lending aren’t that far from traditional lending, alternative lending has become the home for most serious self-employed Canadians. While you might pay a little more in interest, oftentimes, that money is saved through corporate structuring and efficient tax planning.

Non-traditional income

Welcome to the new frontier of earning an income.

If you make money through non-traditional employment like Airbnb, tips, commissions, Uber, or Uber eats, alternative lending is more likely to be flexible to your needs.

Most traditional lenders want to see a minimum of two years of established income before considering income on a mortgage application. Not always so with alternative lenders, depending on the strength of your overall application.

Expanded Debt-Service Ratios

With the government stress test significantly lessening Canadians' ability to borrow, the alternative lender channel allows expanded debt-service ratios. This can help finance the more expensive and suitable property for responsible individuals.

Traditional lending restricts your GDS and TDS ratios to 35/42 or 39/44, depending on your credit score. However, alternative lenders, depending on the loan-to-value ratio, can be considerably more flexible. The more money you have as a downpayment, the more you’re able to borrow and expand those debt-service guidelines. It’s not the wild west, but it’s certainly more flexible.

Connect anytime

Alternative lending can be a great solution if your financial situation isn’t all that straightforward. The goal of alternative lending is to provide you with options. You can only access alternative lending through the mortgage broker channel.

Please connect anytime if you’d like to discuss mortgage financing and what alternative lending products might suit your needs; it would be a pleasure to work with you.

What is a Second Mortgage?

Wed, 29 Jun 2022 07:15:12 GMT

If you're not all that familiar with the ins and outs of mortgage financing, the term "second mortgage" might cause a bit of confusion. Many people incorrectly assume that a second mortgage is arranged when your first term is up for renewal or when you sell your first home. They think that the next mortgage you get is your "second mortgage." This is not the case.

A second mortgage is an additional mortgage on a single property, not the second mortgage you get in your lifetime.

When you borrow money to buy a house, your lawyer or notary will register your mortgage on the property title in what is called first position. This means that your mortgage lender has the first claim against the sale proceeds if you sell your property. If you happen to default on your mortgage, this is the security the lender has in repossessing your property. A second mortgage falls in behind the first mortgage on your property title.

When you sell your property, the lawyers will use the sale proceeds to pay off your mortgages in sequence, the first position mortgage is paid out first, and the second mortgage is paid out second. After both mortgages are paid off completely, you get the remaining equity.

When you secure a second mortgage, you continue making payments on your first mortgage as per your mortgage agreement. You must also then fulfill the terms of the second mortgage.

So why would you want a second mortgage? Well, a second mortgage comes in handy when you're looking to access some of your home equity, but you either have excellent terms on your first mortgage that you don't want to break, or you’d incur a huge penalty to break your first mortgage. Instead of refinancing the first mortgage, a second mortgage can be a better option.

A second mortgage is often used as a short-term debt consolidation tool to help provide you with better cash flow. If you’ve accumulated a considerable amount of high-interest unsecured debt, and you have equity in your home, you can secure a second mortgage to lower your overall cost of borrowing.

If you'd like to know more about how a second mortgage works, or if you'd like to discuss anything related to mortgage financing, please connect anytime!

How To Establish New Credit

Wed, 22 Jun 2022 07:15:52 GMT

If you’re new to managing personal finance and you want to learn about credit, you’ve come to the right place. Establishing new credit is a bit of a catch-22. To build a credit history, you need credit. But it’s hard to get credit without having a credit history. So, where do you start?

Well, the first thing you should know is that building credit takes time. It’s not something that happens overnight. If you’re looking to secure mortgage financing, you will want to have a minimum of two trade lines (credit cards, loans, or lines of credit) with a minimum limit of $2500, reporting for at least two years.

If you don’t have any credit yet, the best time to get started is right now. However, that may be difficult because, as we've already identified, without a credit history, most lenders won’t feel confident about taking a chance on you. What’s the solution? Consider a secured credit card.

With a secured credit card, you make a deposit upfront that matches the amount you want to borrow. A reasonable amount would be $1000 deposited on a single secured credit card. You then use your secured credit card to make household purchases and regular utility payments, paying off the total balance each month. If you default on the money borrowed for whatever reason, the lender will retain the money you put up as collateral.

When looking for a secured credit card, be sure to ask whether they report to the two nationwide credit bureaus, Equifax and TransUnion. If the credit card company doesn't report, the credit card account will be useless for your purposes; move on until you find a company that reports to both credit bureaus.

Once your secured credit card begins reporting to the credit bureaus, you begin to have a credit score; usually, this takes about three months. Now you can start to seek out a second trade line in the form of an unsecured credit card. Don’t forget to ensure that this card reports to both of the credit reporting agencies. Another option at this point could be a car loan. From here, you simply want to make all your payments on time!

But what happens if you’re looking to secure mortgage financing before you have a fully established credit report?

Well, if you have someone who would consider co-signing, you can certainly go that route. The mortgage application will depend on their income and credit report, but your name will be on the mortgage. Hopefully, when the mortgage is up for renewal, you’ll have the established credit required to remove them from the mortgage and qualify on your own.

Although establishing credit takes a minimum of two years, it really begins with putting together a plan. If you’d like to discuss anything credit or mortgage-related, please get in touch!

Improving Your Credit Score

Wed, 15 Jun 2022 07:15:43 GMT

Your credit score and how you manage credit are huge factors in qualifying for a mortgage. If you want the best interest rates and mortgage products available on the market, you want a high credit score. Here are a few things you can do to improve your credit score.

Make all your payments on time.

Making your payments on time is so important; in fact, it might just be the most important factor in managing your credit.

Here's how credit works. When you borrow money from a lender, you agree to make payments with interest on a set schedule until the debt is repaid in full. Good credit is established and maintained by making your payments on time. However, If you break the terms of that schedule by not making your payments, the lender will report the missed payments to the credit reporting agencies, and your credit score suffers. It’s that simple.

The more payments you miss, the lower your score will be. If you fail to make payments for over 120 days, the lender will most likely send your debt to be recovered by a collection agency. Collections stay on your report for a long time.

So the moment you realize you have missed a payment or as soon as you have the money for it, make the payment. If something prevents you from making a payment, consider contacting the lender directly to let them know what happened and work out an arrangement to make the payment as soon as possible.

It's good to note that lenders only report late payments after a payment is 30 days late. If you miss a payment on a Friday and catch it the following Monday, you won't have anything to worry about - except maybe an NSF fee.

Now, just because payments don't report until being 30 days late, don’t get comfortable with making late payments; the best advice is to pay your debts on time, as agreed.

Stop acquiring new credit.

If you already have at least two different trade lines, you shouldn’t acquire new trade lines just for the sake of it. Of course, if you need to borrow money, like to purchase a vehicle to commute to work, go ahead and apply. Just remember: having more credit available to you doesn’t really help your credit score. In fact, each time a potential lender looks at your credit report, it may lower your credit score a little bit.

With that said, if you already have two different trade lines and your lender offers you an increase on your limit, take it. A credit card with a $10k limit is better for you than a credit card with a $2k limit because how much you spend compared to your credit card's limit impacts your credit score. This leads us directly into the next point.

Keep a reasonable balance.

The more credit you use compared to the limit you have, the less creditworthy you appear. It’s better to carry a reasonable balance (15-25% of the card’s limit) and pay it off each month than to max out your credit cards and just make the minimum payments. If you have to spend more than 25% of your card limit, try to remain under 60%. That shows good utilization. Paying down your credit cards every month and carrying a zero balance will undoubtedly improve your credit score.

Check your credit report regularly.

Did you know that roughly 20% of credit reports have misinformation on them? Mistakes happen all the time. Lenders misreport information, or people with the same names get merged reports. Any number of things could be inaccurate without you knowing about it. You might even have become a victim of fraud or identity theft.

By checking your credit regularly, you can stay on top of everything and correct any errors promptly. Both of Canada's credit reporting agencies, Equifax and Transunion, have programs that, for a small fee, will monitor and update you on any changes made to your credit report.

Handle collections immediately.

When checking your credit report for accuracy, if you happen to find a collection has been registered against you, deal with it immediately. It could be a closed-out cell phone account with a small balance owing, a final utility bill that got missed, unpaid parking tickets, wage garnishments, or spousal support payments. Regardless of what it is, it will harm your credit score if it's registered on your credit report. The best plan of action is to handle any collections or delinquent accounts as soon as possible.

Use your credit card.

If you have acquired credit cards to build your credit score, but you rarely use them, there is a chance the lender might not report your usage, and that won’t help your credit score. You'll want to make sure that you use your credit at least once every three months. Many people find success using their credit cards for gas and groceries and paying off the outstanding balance each month.

There you have it. Regardless of what your credit looks like now, you will continue to increase your credit score if you follow the points outlined above.

If you're looking to buy a property and you’d like to work through your credit report in detail, let’s put together a plan to get you qualified for a mortgage. Get in touch anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you!

Unsure About the Housing Market? Let's Talk.

Wed, 08 Jun 2022 07:15:56 GMT

If you’ve been thinking about buying a property, whether that be your first home, next home, forever home, or a home to retire into, the current state of the Canadian economy might have you wondering: Is this really the right time to make a move? There is certainly no shortage of doom and gloom in the news out there.

The truth is, that’s a tough question to answer in the best of times. It’s nearly impossible to know for sure what’s going to happen next with the housing market in Canada. It could heat up or it could cool down.

So here’s some advice. Instead of basing your buying decision entirely on external market factors, like the economy or housing market, consider looking for the answers internally. When you stop looking at the market to determine your timing to buy a home, and instead examine the personal reasons you have for wanting to buy a home, the picture can become much clearer.

Here are some questions to consider. Although they are subjective, they will help bring you clarity. Ask yourself:

Does buying a property now put me in a better financial position?
Do I make enough money now to afford a new home and maintain my lifestyle?
Do I feel confident with my current employment status?
Have I saved enough money for a down payment?
How long do I plan on living in this new home?
Is there any scenario where I might have to sell quickly and potentially lose money?
Does buying a property now move me closer to my life goals?
Do I really want to buy now or am I just feeling a lot of pressure to just buy something?
Am I holding back because I'm scared property prices might drop soon?

There’s no doubt that buying a home can be stressful, but it doesn’t have to be. Having a plan in place is the best course of action to help you make good decisions and alleviate that stress.

If you’d like to have a conversation to discuss your plans, ask some questions, and map out what buying a home looks like for you, we can address many of the unknowns together.

The best place to start is to work through a mortgage pre-approval. There is no cost for this service, you’ll learn exactly what you can qualify for, and it will provide a lot of clarity about your situation.

You might decide that it’s best to wait before buying, and that’s just fine. You might find that now’s a perfect time for you to buy! If you'd like to talk, please connect anytime. You’re not in this alone. We can work through everything together.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jun 1st, 2022

Wed, 01 Jun 2022 14:12:43 GMT

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

June 1, 2022

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1½%, with the Bank Rate at 1¾% and the deposit rate at 1½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening (QT).

Inflation globally and in Canada continues to rise, largely driven by higher prices for energy and food. In Canada, CPI inflation reached 6.8% for the month of April – well above the Bank’s forecast – and will likely move even higher in the near term before beginning to ease. As pervasive input price pressures feed through into consumer prices, inflation continues to broaden, with core measures of inflation ranging between 3.2% and 5.1%. Almost 70% of CPI categories now show inflation above 3%. The risk of elevated inflation becoming entrenched has risen. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to target and keep inflation expectations well anchored.

The increase in global inflation is occurring as the global economy slows. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, China’s COVID-related lockdowns, and ongoing supply disruptions are all weighing on activity and boosting inflation. The war has increased uncertainty and is putting further upward pressure on prices for energy and agricultural commodities. This is dampening the outlook, particularly in Europe. In the United States, private domestic demand remains robust, despite the economy contracting in the first quarter of 2022. US labour market strength continues, with wage pressures intensifying. Global financial conditions have tightened and markets have been volatile.

Canadian economic activity is strong and the economy is clearly operating in excess demand. National accounts data for the first quarter of 2022 showed GDP growth of 3.1 percent, in line with the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projection. Job vacancies are elevated, companies are reporting widespread labour shortages, and wage growth has been picking up and broadening across sectors. Housing market activity is moderating from exceptionally high levels. With consumer spending in Canada remaining robust and exports anticipated to strengthen, growth in the second quarter is expected to be solid.

With the economy in excess demand, and inflation persisting well above target and expected to move higher in the near term, the Governing Council continues to judge that interest rates will need to rise further. The policy interest rate remains the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument, with quantitative tightening acting as a complementary tool. The pace of further increases in the policy rate will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and inflation, and the Governing Council is prepared to act more forcefully if needed to meet its commitment to achieve the 2% inflation target.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 13, 2022. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

An Overview of the Home Buying Process

Wed, 25 May 2022 07:16:13 GMT

If you’re in the early stages of planning to buy either your first home or your next home, you’ve come to the right place! Even if you’ve been through it before, the home buying process can be daunting, but it doesn’t have to be when you have the right people on your side!

The purpose of this article is to share a high-level view of the home buying process. Obviously, the finer details can be addressed once you’ve submitted an application for pre-approval. But for now, here are some of the answers to general questions you may have as you work through your early preparations.

Are you credit-worthy?

Having an established credit profile is essential when applying for a mortgage. For your credit to be considered established, you’ll want to have a minimum of two trade lines (credit cards, loans, or lines of credit) with a minimum limit of $2500, reporting for a period of at least two years.

From there, you’ll want to make sure that your debt repayment is as close to flawless as possible. Think of it this way: Why would a lender want to lend you money if you don’t have a history of timely repayment on the loans you already have? Making your payments on time, as agreed, is crucial.

We all know, however, that mistakes can happen and payments might get missed. If that's the case, it’s best to catch up as quickly as possible! Late payments only register on your credit report if you're past due by 30 days.

How will you make your mortgage payments?

When providing you with a mortgage, lenders are trusting you with a lot of money. They'll want to feel really good about your ability to pay that money back, over an agreed period of time, with interest.

The more stable your employment, the better chances you have of securing mortgage financing. Typically, you’ll want to be employed in a permanent position or have your income averaged over a period of two years. If you’re self-employed, expect to provide a lot more documentation to substantiate your income.

How much skin do you have in the game?

If you're borrowing money to buy a home, you’re going to have to bring some money to the table. The best down payment comes from accumulating your own funds supported by documents proving a 90-day history in your bank account. Other down payment sources, such as a gift from a family member or proceeds from another property sale, are completely acceptable.

In Canada, 5% down is the minimum requirement. However, depending on the purchase price, it might be more. Also, you need to be aware that you will likely have to prove access to at least 1.5% of the purchase price to be allocated for closing costs.

How much can you afford?

Here’s the thing. What you can afford on paper and what you can afford in real life are often very different amounts. Just because you feel you can afford the proposed mortgage payments, know that you will have to substantiate everything through documentation.

The amount you actually qualify to borrow is based on many factors, certainly too many to list in an article designed to provide you with an overview of the home buying process. However, with that said, it’s never too early in the home buying process to seek professional advice. Our services come at no cost to you; it would be our pleasure to help.

Working with an independent mortgage professional will allow you to assess your credit-worthiness, provide insight on how a lender will view your income, help you plan for a down payment, and nail down exactly how much you can afford to borrow. And if you need help putting together a plan to improve your financial situation, we can do that too.

If you’d like to discuss your financial situation and put together a plan to secure mortgage financing, please get in touch!

GDS/TDS Ratios Explained

Wed, 18 May 2022 07:15:45 GMT

One of the major qualifiers lenders look at when considering your application for mortgage financing is your debt service ratios.

Now, before we get started, if you prefer to have someone walk through these calculations with you, assess your financial situation, and let you know exactly where you stand, let’s connect. There is no use in dusting off the calculator and running the numbers yourself when we can do it for you!

However, if you’re someone who likes to know the nitty-gritty of how things work instead of simply accepting that's just the way it is, this article is for you. But be warned, there are a lot of mortgage words and some math ahead; with that out of the way, let’s get started!

“Debt servicing” is the measure of your ability to meet all of your financial obligations. There are two ratios that lenders examine to determine whether you can debt service a mortgage.

The first is called the “gross debt service” ratio, or GDS, which is the percentage of your monthly household income that covers your housing costs. The second is called the “total debt service” ratio, or TDS, which is the percentage of your monthly household income covering your housing costs and all your other debts.

GDS is your income compared to the cost of financing the mortgage, including your proposed mortgage payments (principal and interest), property taxes, and heat (PITH), plus a percentage of your condo fees (if applicable).

Here’s how to calculate your GDS.

Principal + Interest + Taxes + Heat / Gross Annual Income

Your TDS is your income compared to your GDS plus the payments made to service any existing debts. Debts include car loans, line of credit, credit card payments, support payments, student loans, and anywhere else you’re contractually obligated to make payments.

Here’s how to calculate your TDS.

Principal + Interest + Taxes + Heat + Other Debts / Gross Annual Income

With the calculations for those ratios in place, the next step is to understand that each lender has guidelines that outline a maximum GDS/TDS. Exceeding these guidelines will result in your mortgage application being declined, so the lower your GDS/TDS, the better.

If you don’t have any outstanding debts, your GDS and TDS will be the same number. This is a good thing!

The maximum ratios vary for conventional mortgage financing based on the lender and mortgage product being offered. However, if your mortgage is high ratio and mortgage default insurance is required, the maximum GDS is 39% with a maximum TDS of 44%.

So how does this play out in real life? Well, let’s say you’re currently looking to purchase a property with a payment of $1700/mth (PITH), and your total annual household income is $90,000 ($7500/mth). The calculations would be $1700 divided by $7500, which equals 0.227, giving you a gross debt service ratio of 22.7%.

A point of clarity here. When calculating the principal and interest portion of the payment, the Government of Canada has instituted a stress test. It requires you to qualify using the government's qualifying rate (which is higher), not the actual contract rate. This is true for both fixed and variable rate mortgages.

Now let’s continue with the scenario. Let’s say that in addition to the payments required to service the property, you have a car payment of $300/mth, child support payments of $500/mth, and between your credit cards and line of credit, you’re responsible for another $700/mth. In total, you pay $1500/mth. So when you add in the $1700/mth PITH, you arrive at a total of $3200/mth for all of your financial obligations. $3200 divided by $7500 equals 0.427, giving you a total debt service ratio of 42.7%.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Based on your GDS alone, you can easily afford the property. But when you factor in all your other expenses, the TDS exceeds the allowable limit of 42% (for an insured mortgage anyway). So why does this matter? Well, as it stands, you wouldn’t qualify for the mortgage, even though you are likely paying more than $1700/mth in rent.

So then, to qualify, it might be as simple as shuffling some of your debt to lower payments. Or maybe you have 10% of the purchase price saved for a downpayment, changing the mortgage structure to 5% down and using the additional 5% to pay out a portion of your debt might be the difference you need to bring it all together.

Here’s the thing, as your actual financial situation is most likely different than the one above, working with an independent mortgage professional is the best way to give yourself options. Don’t do this alone. Your best plan is to seek and rely on the advice provided by an experienced independent mortgage professional. While you might secure a handful of mortgages over your lifetime, we do this every day with people just like you.

It’s never too early to start the conversation about mortgage qualification. Going over your application and assessing your debt service ratios in detail beforehand gives you the time needed to make the financial moves necessary to put yourself in the best financial position.

So if you find yourself questioning what you can afford or if you want to discuss your GDS/TDS ratios to understand the mortgage process a little better, please get in touch. It would be a pleasure to work with you, we can get a preapproval started right away.

Should You Get Pre-approved For A Mortgage?

Wed, 11 May 2022 07:16:10 GMT

If you’re thinking about buying a property, but you’re not sure where to start, you’ve come to the right place! Let’s discuss how getting pre-approved is one of the first steps in your home buying journey.

Just like you wouldn’t go into a restaurant without knowing if you have enough money to buy your meal, it’s not a good idea to be shopping for a home without an understanding of how much you can afford. You can browse MLS from your couch all you want beforehand, but when you’re ready to start looking at properties with a real estate agent, you need a pre-approval.

Now, as there may be some confusion around exactly what a pre-approval does and doesn’t do, let’s discuss it in detail. First of all, a pre-approval is not magic, and it’s not binding. A pre-approval is not a contract that will guarantee mortgage financing despite changes to your financial situation. Instead, a pre-approval is simply the first look at your overall financial health that will point you in the right direction before you’re ready to apply for a mortgage.

Said in another way, a pre-approval is a map that gives you the plan to secure an actual approval. After going through the pre-approval process, you’ll know how to qualify for a mortgage and at what amount.

When considering your mortgage application, lenders look at your income, credit history, assets vs liabilities, and the property itself. Working through a pre-approval will cover all these areas and will uncover any major obstacles that might be in your way of securing financing.

The best time to secure a pre-approval is as soon as possible; it’s never a bad idea to have a plan. Here are a few of the obstacles that a pre-approval can uncover:

You’ve recently changed jobs, and you’re still on probation
Your income relies heavily on extra shifts or commissions
You’re unaware of factual mistakes or collections on your credit report
You don’t have an established credit profile
You don’t have enough money saved for a downpayment
Additional debt is lowering the amount you qualify for
Really anything you don't know that you don't know

Even if you believe you have all your ducks in a row, working through the pre-approval process with an independent mortgage professional will ensure you have the best chance of securing a final approval. As a point of clarity, a pre-approval is not the same as a pre-qualification. This is not typing a few things into a website, calculating some numbers, and thinking you’re all set. A pre-approval includes providing your financial information, looking at your credit report, discussing a plan for securing mortgage financing with a mortgage professional, and even submitting documents ahead of time.

Mortgage financing can be a daunting process; it doesn’t have to be. Having a plan in place and doing as much as you can beforehand is essential to ensuring a smooth home buying experience. As there is no cost for getting a mortgage pre-approval, there is absolutely no risk. Consider starting the process right now!

If you’d like to walk through your financial situation and get pre-approved for a mortgage, let’s talk. It would be a pleasure to work with you!

What is a “No-Frills” Mortgage?

Wed, 04 May 2022 07:15:12 GMT

A no-frills service or product is where non-essential features have been removed from the product or service to keep the price as low as possible.

And while keeping costs low at the expense of non-essential features might be okay when choosing something like which grocery store to shop at, which economy car to purchase, or which budget hotel to spend the night, it’s not a good idea when considering which lender to secure mortgage financing. Here’s why.

When securing mortgage financing, your goal should be to pay the least amount of money over the term. Your plan should include having provisions for unexpected life changes.

Unlike the inconvenience of shopping at a store that doesn’t provide free bags, or driving a car without power windows, or staying at a hotel without any amenities, the so-called “frills” that are stripped away to provide you with the lowest rate mortgage are the very things that could significantly impact your overall cost of borrowing.

Depending on the lender, a “no-frills” mortgage rate might be up to 0.20% lower than a fully-featured mortgage. And while this could potentially save you a few hundreds of dollars over a 5-year term, please understand that it could also potentially cost you thousands (if not tens of thousands) of dollars should you need to break your mortgage early.

So if you’re considering a “no-frills” mortgage, here are a few of the drawbacks to think through:

You'll pay a significantly higher penalty if you need to break your mortgage.
You'll have limited pre-payment privileges.
Potential limitations if you want to port your mortgage to a different property.
You might be limited in your ability to refinance your mortgage (without incurring a considerable penalty).

Simply put, a “no-frills” mortgage is an entirely restrictive mortgage that leaves you without any flexibility. There are many reasons you might need to keep your options open. You might need to break your term because of a job loss or marital breakdown, or maybe you decide to take a new job across the country, or you need to buy a property to accommodate your growing family. Life is unpredictable; flexibility matters.

So why do banks offer a no-frills mortgage anyway? Well, when you deal with a single bank or financial institution, it’s the banker’s job to make as much money from you as possible, even if that means locking you into a very restrictive mortgage product by offering a rock bottom rate. Banks know that 2 out of 3 people break their mortgage within three years (33 months).

However, when you seek the expert advice of an independent mortgage professional, you can expect to see mortgage options from several institutions showcasing mortgage products best suited for your needs. We have your best interest in mind and will help you through the entire process. A mortgage is so much more than just the lowest rate.

If you have any questions about this, or if you’d like to discuss anything else mortgage-related, please get in touch. Working with you would be a pleasure!

3 Questions To Ask Yourself Before Listing Your Home!

Wed, 27 Apr 2022 07:15:23 GMT

Deciding to list your home for sale is a big decision. And while there are many reasons you might want/need to sell, here are 3 questions you should ask yourself; and have answers to, before taking that step.

What is my plan to get my property ready for sale?

Assessing the value of your home is an important first step. Talking with a real estate professional will help accomplish that. They will be able to tell you what comparable properties in your area have sold for and what you can expect to sell your property for. They will also know specific market conditions and be able to help you put a plan together.

But as you’re putting together that plan, here are a few discussion points to work through. A little time/money upfront might increase the final sale price.

Declutter and depersonalize
Minor repairs
A fresh coat of interior/exterior paint
New fixtures
Hire a home stager or designer
Exterior maintenance
Professional pictures and/or virtual tour

But then again, these are all just considerations; selling real estate isn’t an exact science. Current housing market conditions will shape this conversation. The best plan of action is to find a real estate professional you trust, ask a lot of questions, and listen to their advice.

What are the costs associated with selling?

Oftentimes it’s the simple math that can betray you. In your head, you do quick calculations; you take what you think your property will sell for and then subtract what you owe on your mortgage; the rest is profit! Well, not so fast. Costs add up when selling a home. Here is a list of costs you’ll want to consider.

Real estate commissions (plus tax)
Mortgage discharge fees and penalties
Lawyer’s fees
Utilities and property tax account settlements
Hiring movers and/or storage fees

Having the exact figures ahead of time allows you to make a better decision. Now, the real wildcard here is the potential mortgage penalty you might pay if you break your existing mortgage. If you need help figuring this number out, get in touch!

What is my plan going forward?

If you’re already considering selling your home, it would be fair to guess that you have your reasons. But as you move forward, make sure you have a plan that is free of assumptions.

If you plan to move from your existing property to another property that you will be purchasing, make sure you have worked through mortgage financing ahead of time.

Just because you’ve qualified for a mortgage in the past doesn’t mean you’ll qualify for a mortgage in the future. Depending on when you got your last mortgage, a lot could have changed. You’ll want to know exactly what you can qualify for before you sell your existing property.

If you’d like to talk through all your options, connect anytime! It would be a pleasure to work with you and provide you with professional, unbiased advice.

Will Collections Impact Your Mortgage?

Wed, 20 Apr 2022 07:15:57 GMT

A question that comes up from time to time when discussing mortgage financing is, “If I have collections showing on my credit bureau, will that impact my ability to get a mortgage?” The answer might have a broader implication than what you might think; let's spend a little time discussing it.

Collections accounts are reported on your credit bureau when you have a debt that hasn’t been paid as agreed. Now, regardless of the reason for the collection; the collection is a result of delinquency, it’s an account you didn’t realize was in collections, or even if it’s a choice not to pay something because of moral reasons, all open collections will negatively impact your ability to secure new mortgage financing.

Delinquency

If you’re really late on paying on a loan, credit card, line of credit, or mortgage, and the lender has sent that account to collections, as they consider it a bad debt, this will certainly impact your ability to get new mortgage financing. Look at it this way, why would any lender want to extend new credit to you when you have a known history of not paying your existing debts as agreed?

If you happen to be late on your payments and the collection agencies are calling, the best plan would be to deal with the issue head-on. Settle the debts as quickly as possible and work towards establishing your credit. Very few (if any) lenders will even consider your mortgage application with open collections showing on your credit report.

If you’re unaware of bad debts

It happens a lot more than you’d think; people applying for a mortgage are completely unaware that they have delinquent accounts on their credit report. A common reason for this is that collection agencies are hired simply because the lender can’t reach someone.

Here’s an example. Let’s say you’re moving from one province to another for work, you pay the outstanding balance on your utility accounts, change your phone number, and make the move. And while you think you’ve paid the final amount owing, they read your meter, and there is $32 outstanding on your bill. As the utility company has no way of tracking you down, they send that amount to an agency that registers it on your credit report. You don't know any of this has happened and certainly would have paid the amount had you known it was due.

Alternatively, with over 20% of credit reports containing some level of inaccuracy, mistakes happen. If you’ve had collections in the past, there’s a chance they might be reporting inaccurately, even if it's been paid out.

So as far as your mortgage is concerned, it really doesn’t matter if the collection is a reporting error or a valid collection that you weren’t aware of. If it’s on your credit report, it’s your responsibility to prove it’s been remediated. Most lenders will accept documentation proving the account has been paid and won’t require those changes to reflect on your credit report before proceeding with a mortgage application.

So how do you know if you’ve got mistakes on your credit report? Well, you can either access your credit reports on your own or talk with an independent mortgage advisor to put together a mortgage preapproval. The preapproval process will uncover any issues holding you back. If there are any collections on your bureau, you can implement a plan to fix the problem before applying for a mortgage.

Moral Collections

What if you have purposefully chosen not to pay a collection, fine, bill, or debt for moral reasons? Or what if that account is sitting as an unpaid collection on your credit report because you dispute the subject matter?

Here are a few examples.

A disputed phone or utility bill
Unpaid alimony or child support
Unpaid collections for traffic tickets
Unpaid collections for COVID-19 fines

The truth is, lenders don’t care what the collection is for; they just want to see that you’ve dealt with it. They will be reluctant to extend new mortgage financing while you have an active collection reporting on your bureau.

So if you decide to take a moral stand on not paying a collection, please know that you run the risk of having that moral decision impact your ability to secure a mortgage in the future.

If you have any questions about this or anything else mortgage-related, please connect anytime! It would be a pleasure to work with you!

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Apr 13th, 2022

Wed, 13 Apr 2022 14:12:05 GMT

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, begins quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

April 13, 2022

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1%, with the Bank Rate at 1¼% and the deposit rate at 1%. The Bank is also ending reinvestment and will begin quantitative tightening (QT), effective April 25. Maturing Government of Canada bonds on the Bank’s balance sheet will no longer be replaced and, as a result, the size of the balance sheet will decline over time.

Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is causing unimaginable human suffering and new economic uncertainty. Price spikes in oil, natural gas and other commodities are adding to inflation around the world. Supply disruptions resulting from the war are also exacerbating ongoing supply constraints and weighing on activity. These factors are the primary drivers of a substantial upward revision to the Bank’s outlook for inflation in Canada.

The war in Ukraine is disrupting the global recovery, just as most economies are emerging from the impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. European countries are more directly impacted by confidence effects and supply dislocations caused by the war. China’s economy is facing new COVID outbreaks and an ongoing correction in its property market. In the United States, domestic demand remains very strong and the US Federal Reserve has clearly indicated its resolve to use its monetary policy tools to control inflation. As policy stimulus is withdrawn, US growth is expected to moderate to a pace more in line with potential growth. Global financial conditions have tightened and volatility has increased. The Bank now forecasts global growth of about 3½% this year, 2½% in 2023 and 3¼% in 2024.

In Canada, growth is strong and the economy is moving into excess demand. Labour markets are tight, and wage growth is back to its pre-pandemic pace and rising. Businesses increasingly report they are having difficulty meeting demand, and are able to pass on higher input costs by increasing prices. While the COVID-19 virus continues to mutate and circulate, high rates of vaccination have reduced its health and economic impacts. Growth looks to have been stronger in the first quarter than projected in January and is likely to pick up in the second quarter. Consumer spending is strengthening with the lifting of pandemic containment measures. Exports and business investment will continue to recover, supported by strong foreign demand and high commodity prices. Housing market activity, which has been exceptionally high, is expected to moderate.

The Bank forecasts that Canada’s economy will grow by 4¼% this year before slowing to 3¼% in 2023 and 2¼% in 2024. Robust business investment, labour productivity growth and higher immigration will add to the economy’s productive capacity, while higher interest rates should moderate growth in domestic demand.

CPI inflation in Canada is 5.7%, above the Bank’s forecast in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Inflation is being driven by rising energy and food prices and supply disruptions, in combination with strong global and domestic demand. Core measures of inflation have all moved higher as price pressures broaden. CPI inflation is now expected to average almost 6% in the first half of 2022 and remain well above the control range throughout this year. It is then expected to ease to about 2½% in the second half of 2023 and return to the 2% target in 2024. There is an increasing risk that expectations of elevated inflation could become entrenched. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.

With the economy moving into excess demand and inflation persisting well above target, the Governing Council judges that interest rates will need to rise further. The policy interest rate is the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument, and quantitative tightening will complement increases in the policy rate. The timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 1, 2022. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on July 13, 2022.

A market notice providing operational details for QT will be published this morning on the Bank’s web site.

4 Ways to Access Your Home Equity

Wed, 06 Apr 2022 07:15:54 GMT

If you've been a homeowner for many years, it is likely your property value has increased significantly. One advantage of homeownership is the opportunity to build equity. Home equity growth, partnered with the security of living in your own home, is why most Canadians believe homeownership is the best choice for them!

While home equity is one of your greatest assets, accessing home equity is often overlooked when putting together a comprehensive financial plan. So if you’re looking for a way to access some of your home equity, you’ve come to the right place!

Simply put, home equity is the actual market value of your property minus what you owe. For instance, if your home has a market value of $650k and you owe $150k, you have $500k in home equity.

If you want to stay in your home but also access the equity you have built up over the years, there are four options to consider.

Conventional Mortgage Refinance

Assuming you qualify for the mortgage, most lenders will allow you to borrow up to 80% of your property’s value through a conventional refinance.

Let’s say your property is worth $500k and you owe $300k on your existing mortgage. If you were to refinance up to 80%, you would qualify to borrow $400k. After paying out your first mortgage of $300k, you’d end up with $100k (minus any fees to break your mortgage) to spend however you like.

Even if you paid off your mortgage years ago and own your property with a clear title (no mortgage), you can secure a new mortgage on your property.

Reverse Mortgage

A reverse mortgage allows Canadian homeowners 55 or older to turn the equity in their home into tax-free cash. There is no income or credit verification; you maintain ownership of your home, and you aren't required to make any mortgage payments. The full amount of the mortgage will become due when you decide to move or sell.

Unlike a conventional mortgage refinance, reverse mortgages won’t allow you to borrow up to 80% of your home equity. Rather, you can access a lesser amount of equity depending on your age.

The interest rates on a reverse mortgage can be slightly higher than the best rates currently being offered through standard mortgage financing. However, the difference is not outrageous, and this is an option worth considering as the benefits of freeing up cash without mortgage payments provides you with increased flexibility.

Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC)

A Home Equity Line of Credit allows you to set up access to the equity you have in your home but only pay interest if you use it. Qualifying for a HELOC may be challenging as lender criteria can be pretty strict. Unlike a conventional mortgage, a HELOC doesn't usually have an amortization, so you're only required to make the interest payments on the amount you've borrowed.

Second Position Mortgage

If the cost to break your mortgage is really high, but you need access to cash before your existing mortgage renews, consider a second mortgage.

A second mortgage typically has a set amount of time in which you have to repay the loan (term) as well as a fixed interest rate. This rate is usually higher than conventional financing. After you have received the loan proceeds, you can spend the money any way you like, but you will need to make regular payments on the second mortgage until it's paid off.

If you’re looking for a way to access the equity in your home to free up some cash, please get in touch. You’ve got options, and we can work together to find the best option for you!

How to Save Money for a Downpayment

Wed, 30 Mar 2022 07:15:13 GMT

Whether you want to set aside money to buy a car or take a vacation, save up for a down payment on a property, or plan for your retirement, the principles are the same.

However, as you’re reading this article on a website dedicated to helping you secure mortgage financing, we’ll assume you want tips on how to save for a down payment!

The key to saving money is getting clarity - clarity around your income and your expenses, developing and following a clear plan, and seeking help from professionals who can help you see the big picture as well as the details. Although this might seem fundamental, sometimes going back to basics is the best place to start.

Assess your income.

If your goal is to save money, you’ll need to identify just how much money you’ve got to work with! The best way to do this is to write everything down. This could be with paper and a pen or on a spreadsheet; whichever way works best for you is fine. The goal is to have all your income in front of you!

If you’re on a fixed income or receive a salary for work, your calculations might be pretty simple. Use the income you actually take home, not your gross income. Include an average of your variable income sources like tips, overtime, bonuses, or shift differentials. You should also include other income sources like an annual tax return, and child tax or other government benefits.

Spend time to make an exhaustive list of all your income sources.

Track your expenses.

Once you’ve identified what you have to work with on the income side, the next step is to figure out just how much you actually spend to maintain your current lifestyle.

Start by identifying regular bills, then look at your discretionary spending. If you have a budget already in place, you should be able to identify these numbers easily. If not, you can expect that getting clarity around your expenses will be very enlightening. It will be helpful to look through a few months’ worth of bank statements to see just how much money you actually spend.

Information is the key to finding clarity. The more information you have, the more equipped you will be to save money. Just like your income, write down all your expenses. This will allow you to assess and reprioritize where you spend your money.

Develop and follow a plan.

Once you have a clear picture of your income and expenses, you need to figure out how to make more money than you spend. Although that sounds so simple, it really isn’t. The majority of Canadians incur debt because they spend more money than they make. This is why saving money can be so hard.

But if we’re going back to basics, remember this: if you’re spending more money than you're making, you need to either increase your income or decrease your expenses to start saving money. There are countless money-saving strategies on the internet; consider following a few financial bloggers, and have fun learning about what works best for you!

Seek help from professionals.

You’re probably here to learn about how to save money for a down payment because you want to buy a home soon. If that's the case, be assured you're in the right place. Putting together a plan to secure mortgage financing is one plan you don't have to make on your own.

As independent mortgage professionals, it’s our job to help you navigate all aspects of mortgage financing. Just like saving for a down payment is about managing income and expenses, so is getting a mortgage. Income and expenses, along with credit and property, are what a lender looks at when assessing your suitability for a mortgage.

So while you might assume that putting together a plan to save for a down payment is where you should start, it might not actually be the best place to start. Saving money takes time, and while you're doing that, there are many other things you could be doing at the same time, like building credit to increase your chances of qualifying for a mortgage sooner.

When you’re ready to assess your financial situation and put together a plan to save for a down payment and get into a mortgage sooner, please get in touch. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Locking in a Variable Rate Mortgage

Wed, 23 Mar 2022 08:00:03 GMT

If you have a variable rate mortgage and recent economic news has you thinking about locking into a fixed rate, here’s what you can expect will happen. You can expect to pay a higher interest rate over the remainder of your term, while you could end up paying a significantly higher mortgage penalty should you need to break your mortgage before the end of your term.

Now, each lender has a slightly different way that they handle the process of switching from a variable rate to a fixed rate. Still, it’s safe to say that regardless of which lender you’re with, you’ll end up paying more money in interest and potentially way more money down the line in mortgage penalties should you have to break your mortgage.

Interest rates on fixed rate mortgages

Fixed rate mortgages come with a higher interest rate than variable rate mortgages. If you’re a variable rate mortgage holder, this is one of the reasons you went variable in the first place; to secure the lower rate.

The perception is that fixed rates are somewhat “safe” while variable rates are “uncertain.” And while it’s true that because the variable rate is tied to prime, it can increase (or decrease) within your term, there are controls in place to ensure that rates don’t take a roller coaster ride. The Bank of Canada has eight prescheduled rate announcements per year, where they rarely move more than 0.25% per announcement, making it impossible for your variable rate to double overnight.

Penalties on fixed rate mortgages

Each lender has a different way of calculating the cost to break a mortgage. However, generally speaking, breaking a variable rate mortgage will cost roughly three months of interest or approximately 0.5% of the total mortgage balance. While breaking a fixed rate mortgage could cost upwards of 4% of the total mortgage balance should you need to break it early and you’re required to pay an interest rate differential penalty.

For example, on a $500k mortgage balance, the cost to break your variable rate would be roughly $2500, while the cost to break your fixed rate mortgage could be as high as $20,000, eight times more depending on the lender and how they calculate their interest rate differential penalty.

The flexibility of a variable rate mortgage vs the cost of breaking a fixed rate mortgage is likely another reason you went with a variable rate in the first place.

Breaking your mortgage contract

Did you know that almost 60% of Canadians will break their current mortgage at an average of 38 months? And while you might have the best intention of staying with your existing mortgage for the remainder of your term, sometimes life happens, you need to make a change.

Here’s is a list of potential reasons you might need to break your mortgage before the end of the term. Certainly worth reviewing before committing to a fixed rate mortgage.

Sale of your property because of a job relocation.
Purchase of a new home.
Access equity from your home.
Refinance your home to pay off consumer debt.
Refinance your home to fund a new business.
Because you got married, you combine assets and want to live together in a new property.
Because you got divorced, you need to split up your assets and access the equity in your property
Because you or someone close to you got sick
Because you lost your job or because you got a new one
You want to remove someone from the title.
You want to pay off your mortgage before the maturity date.

Essentially, locking your variable rate mortgage into a fixed rate is choosing to voluntarily pay more interest to the lender while giving up some of the flexibility should you need to break your mortgage.

If you’d like to discuss this in greater detail, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk you through all your mortgage options and provide you with professional mortgage advice.

Credit and Mortgage Financing

Wed, 16 Mar 2022 07:15:45 GMT

Credit. The ability of a customer to obtain goods or services before payment, based on the trust that you will make payments in the future. When you borrow money to buy a property, you’ll be required to prove that you have a good history of managing your credit. That is, making good on all your payments.

But what exactly is a “good history of managing credit”? What are lenders looking at when they assess your credit report? If you’re new to managing your credit, an easy way to remember the minimum credit requirements for mortgage financing is the 2/2/2 rule. Two active trade lines established over a minimum period of two years, with a minimum limit of two thousand dollars, is what lenders are looking for.

A trade line could be a credit card, an instalment loan, a car loan, or a line of credit; basically, anytime a lender extends credit to you. Your repayment history is kept on your credit report and generates a credit score. For a tradeline to be considered active, you must have used it for at least one month and then once every three months.

To build a good credit history, both of your tradelines need to be used for at least two years. This history gives the lender confidence that you’ve established good credit habits over a decent length of time.

Two thousand dollars is the bare minimum limit required on your trade lines. So if you have a credit card with a $1000 limit and a line of credit with a $2500 limit, you would be okay as your limit would be $3500. If you’re managing your credit well, chances are you will be offered a limit increase. It’s a good idea to take it. Mortgage Lenders want to know that you can handle borrowing money.

Now, don’t confuse the limit with the balance. You don’t have to carry a balance on your trade lines for them to be considered active. To build credit, it’s best to use your tradelines but pay them off in full every month in the case of credit cards and make all your loan payments on time.

A great way to use your credit is to pay your bills via direct withdrawal from your credit card, then set up a regular transfer from your bank account to pay off the credit card in full every month. Automation becomes your best friend. Just make sure you keep on top of your banking to ensure everything works as it should.

Now, you might be thinking, what about my credit score, isn’t that important when talking about building a credit profile to secure a mortgage? Well, your credit score is important, but if you have two tradelines, reporting for two years, with a minimum limit of two thousand dollars, without missing any payments, your credit score will take care of itself, and you should have no worries.

With that said, it never hurts to take a look at your credit every once and a while to ensure no errors are reported on your credit bureau. So, if you’re thinking about buying a property in the next couple of years and want to make sure that you have good enough credit to qualify, let’s talk.

Connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you and help you to understand better how your credit impacts mortgage qualification.

Purchase Plus Improvements

Wed, 09 Mar 2022 08:15:12 GMT

The best place to start the mortgage process is with a pre-approval. But once you’ve been pre-approved for a mortgage and you’ve been shopping with location in mind, what happens when you can’t find a suitable property?

There's no doubt about it; finding the perfect property within your price range is a difficult task, especially for first-time homebuyers. So, before buyer’s fatigue sets in, maybe you should consider adding the cost of renovations into your purchase.

Buying a property and including the cost of renovations into the mortgage is available through a program called purchase plus improvements. When purchasing a home, you can add the cost of home upgrades into your mortgage, making it a great option if you can’t find something move-in ready and aren’t afraid to do a little work!

But while this sounds simple enough, in all honestly, it’s quite the process. There are some pretty strict rules to follow, but nothing that you can’t handle with the guidance of an independent mortgage professional.

Here’s a quick overview of the process. Firstly, you must provide quotes to the lender ahead of time for the work you would like to complete. It’s good to note that the renovations will have to increase the value of the property accordingly. From there, the lender doesn’t give you the money to do the upgrades; you have to come up with that yourself. However, once the work has been completed and verified by an appraiser, the lender will reimburse you and include the money in your mortgage.

This program isn’t for everyone. Buying a home is a stressful endeavour in and of itself. The added stress of having to undertake renovations right away might not be a good idea. But then again, if you have the financial wherewithal to handle the cost of renovations and like the idea of making it yours from the start, then this might be just the option you’ve been looking for!

Please connect directly; it would be a pleasure to walk through the exact process and outline what securing a purchase plus improvements would look like for you!

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Mar 2nd, 2022

Wed, 02 Mar 2022 15:06:41 GMT

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

March 2, 2022

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to ½ %, with the Bank Rate at ¾ % and the deposit rate at ½ %. The Bank is continuing its reinvestment phase, keeping its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds on its balance sheet roughly constant until such time as it becomes appropriate to allow the size of its balance sheet to decline.

The unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia is a major new source of uncertainty. Prices for oil and other commodities have risen sharply. This will add to inflation around the world, and negative impacts on confidence and new supply disruptions could weigh on global growth. Financial market volatility has increased. The situation remains fluid and we are following events closely.

Global economic data has come in broadly in line with projections in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Economies are emerging from the impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 more quickly than expected, although the virus continues to circulate and the possibility of new variants remains a concern. Demand is robust, particularly in the United States. Global supply bottlenecks remain challenging, although there are indications that some constraints have eased.

Economic growth in Canada was very strong in the fourth quarter of last year at 6.7%. This is stronger than the Bank’s projection and confirms its view that economic slack has been absorbed. Both exports and imports have picked up, consistent with solid global demand. In January, the recovery in Canada’s labour market suffered a setback due to the Omicron variant, with temporary layoffs in service sectors and elevated employee absenteeism. However, the rebound from Omicron now appears to be well in train: household spending is proving resilient and should strengthen further with the lifting of public health restrictions. Housing market activity is more elevated, adding further pressure to house prices. Overall, first-quarter growth is now looking more solid than previously projected.

CPI inflation is currently at 5.1%, as expected in January, and remains well above the Bank’s target range. Price increases have become more pervasive, and measures of core inflation have all risen. Poor harvests and higher transportation costs have pushed up food prices. The invasion of Ukraine is putting further upward pressure on prices for both energy and food-related commodities. All told, inflation is now expected to be higher in the near term than projected in January. Persistently elevated inflation is increasing the risk that longer-run inflation expectations could drift upwards. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to the 2% target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.

The policy rate is the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument. As the economy continues to expand and inflation pressures remain elevated, the Governing Council expects interest rates will need to rise further. The Governing Council will also be considering when to end the reinvestment phase and allow its holdings of Government of Canada bonds to begin to shrink. The resulting quantitative tightening (QT) would complement increases in the policy interest rate. The timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate, and the start of QT, will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 13, 2022. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

How to Handle Missed Payments

Wed, 23 Feb 2022 08:15:32 GMT

If you’ve missed a payment on your credit card or line of credit and you’re wondering how to handle things and if this will impact your creditworthiness down the road, this article is for you.

But before we get started, if you have an overdue balance on any of your credit cards at this exact moment, go, make the minimum payment right now. Seriously, log in to your internet banking and make the minimum payment. The rest can wait.

Here’s the good news, if you’ve just missed a payment by a couple of days, you have nothing to worry about. Credit reporting agencies only record when you’ve been 30, 60, and 90 days late on a payment. So, if you got busy and missed your minimum payment due date but made the payment as soon as you realized your error, as long as you haven’t been over 30 days late, it shouldn’t show up as a blemish on your credit report.

However, there’s nothing wrong with making sure. You can always call your credit card company and let them know what happened. Let them know that you missed the payment but that you paid it as soon as you could. Keeping in contact with them is the key. By giving them a quick call, if you have a history of timely payments, they might even go ahead and refund the interest that accumulated on the missed payment. You never know unless you ask!

Now, if you’re having some cash flow issues, and you’ve been 30, 60, or 90 days late on payments, and you haven’t made the minimum payment, your creditworthiness has probably taken a hit. The best thing you can do is make all the minimum payments on your accounts as soon as possible.

Getting up to date as quickly as possible will mitigate the damage to your credit score. The worst thing you can do is bury your head in the sand and ignore the problem, because it won’t go away.

If you cannot make your payments, the best action plan is to contact your lender regularly until you can. They want to work with you! The last thing they want is radio silence on your end. If they haven’t heard from you after repeated missed payments, they might write off your balance as “bad debt” and assign it to a collection agency. Collections and bad debts look bad on your credit report.

As far as qualifying for a mortgage goes, repeated missed payments will negatively impact your ability to get a mortgage. But once you’re back to making regular payments, the more time that goes by, the better your credit will get. It’s all about timing. Always try to be as current as possible with your payments.

So If you plan to buy a property in the next couple of years, it’s never too early to work through your financing, especially if you’ve missed a payment or two in the last couple of years and you’re unsure of where you stand with your credit.

Please connect directly; it would be a pleasure to walk through your mortgage application and credit report. Let’s look and see exactly where you stand and what steps you need to take to qualify for a mortgage.

Porting Your Mortgage

Wed, 16 Feb 2022 08:15:26 GMT

Porting your mortgage is when you transfer the remainder of your current mortgage term, outstanding principal balance, and interest rate to a new property if you’re selling your existing home and buying a new one.

Now, despite what some big banks would lead you to believe, porting your mortgage is not an easy process. It’s not a magic process that guarantees you will qualify to purchase a new property using the mortgage you had on a previous property.

In addition to re-qualifying for the mortgage you already have, the lender will also assess the property you’re looking to purchase. Many moving parts come into play. You’re more likely to have significant setbacks throughout the process than you are to execute a flawless port. Here are some of the reasons:

You may not qualify for the mortgage

Let’s say you’re moving to a new city to take a new job. If you’re relying on porting your mortgage to buy a new property, you’ll have to substantiate your new income. If you’re on probation or changed professions, there’s a chance the lender will decline your application. Porting a mortgage is a lot like qualifying for a new mortgage, just with more conditions.

The property you are buying has to be approved

So let’s say that your income isn’t an issue and that you qualify for the mortgage. The subject property you want to purchase has to be approved as well. Just because the lender accepted your last property as collateral for the mortgage doesn’t mean the lender will accept the new property. The lender will require an appraisal and scrutinize the condition of the property you’re looking to buy.

Property values are rarely the same

Chances are, if you’re selling a property and buying a new one, there’ll be some price difference. When looking to port a mortgage, if the new property’s value is higher than your previous property, requiring a higher mortgage amount, you’ll most likely have to take a blended rate on the new money, which could increase your payment. If the property value is considerably less, you might incur a penalty to reduce the total mortgage amount.

You still need a downpayment

Porting a mortgage isn’t just a simple case of swapping one property for another while keeping the same mortgage. You’re still required to come up with a downpayment on the new property.

You’ll most likely have to pay a penalty

Most lenders will charge the total discharge penalty when you sell your property and take it from the sale proceeds. The penalty is then refunded when you execute the port and purchase the new property. So if you are relying on the proceeds of sale to come up with your downpayment, you might have to make other arrangements.

Timelines rarely work out

When assessing the housing market, It’s usually a buyer’s market or a seller’s market, not both at the same time. So although you may be able to sell your property overnight, you might not be able to find a suitable property to buy. Alternatively, you may be able to find many suitable properties to purchase while your house sits on the market with no showings.

And, chances are, when you end up selling your property and find a new property to buy, the closing dates rarely match up perfectly.

Different lenders have different port periods

Understanding that different lenders have different port periods is where the fine print in the mortgage documents comes into play. Did you know that depending on the lender, the time you have to port your mortgage can range from one day to six months? So if it’s one day, your lawyer will have to close both the sale of your property and the purchase of your new property on the same day, or the port won’t work.

Or, with a more extended port period, you run the risk of selling your house with the intention of porting the mortgage, only to not be able to find a suitable property to buy.

So while the idea of porting your mortgage can seem like a good idea, and it might even make sense if you have a low rate that you want to carry over to a property of similar value, it’s always a good idea to get professional mortgage advice and look at all your options.

While porting your mortgage is a nice feature to have because it provides you with options, please understand that it is not a guarantee that you’ll be able to swap out properties and keep making the same payments. There’s a lot to know.

If you’re looking to sell your existing property and buy a new one, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk you through the process and help you consider all your options, including a port if that makes the most sense!

Why Downpayment Source Matters

Wed, 09 Feb 2022 08:15:14 GMT

If you’re looking to purchase a property, although you might not think it matters too much, the source of your downpayment means a great deal to the lender. Let’s discuss the lender requirements, what your downpayment tells the lender about your financial situation, a how downpayment helps establish the mortgage loan to value.

Anti-money laundering

Lenders care about your downpayment source because, legally, they have to. To prevent money laundering, lenders have to document the source of the downpayment on every home purchase.

Acceptable forms of downpayment are money from your resources, borrowed funds through an insured program called the FlexDown, or money you receive as a gift from an immediate family member.

To prove the funds are from your resources and not laundered money from the proceeds of crime, you’ll be required to provide bank statements showing the money has been in your account for at least 90 days or that you’ve accumulated the funds through payroll deposits or other acceptable means.

Now, if you’re borrowing all or part of your downpayment, you’ll need to include the costs of carrying the payments on the borrowed downpayment in your debt service ratios. If you’re the recipient of a gift from a direct family member, you’ll need to provide a signed gift letter indicating that the funds are a true gift and have no schedule for repayment. From there, you’ll need to show the money deposit into your account.

Financial suitability

Lenders care about the source of the downpayment because it is an indicator that you are financially able to purchase the property.

Showing the lender that your downpayment is coming from your resources is the best. This demonstrates that you have positive cash flow and that you’re able to save money and manage your finances in a way that indicates you’ll most likely make your mortgage payments on time. If your downpayment is borrowed or from a gift, there’s a chance that they’ll want to scrutinize the rest of your application more closely.

The bigger your downpayment, the better, well, as far as the lender is concerned. The way they see it, there is a direct correlation between how much money you have as equity to the likelihood you will or won’t default on their mortgage. Essentially, the more equity you have, the less likely you will walk away from the mortgage, which lessens their risk.

Downpayment establishes the loan to value (LTV)

Thirdly, your downpayment establishes the loan to value ratio. The loan to value ratio or LTV is the percentage of the property’s value compared to the mortgage amount. In Canada, a lender cannot lend more than 95% of a property’s value. So, if you’re buying a home for $400k, the lender can lend $380k, and you’re responsible for coming up with 5%, $ 20k in this situation.

But you might be asking yourself, how does the source of the downpayment impact LTV? Great question, and to answer this, we have to look at how to establish property value. Simply put, something is worth what someone is willing to pay for it and what someone is willing to sell it for. Of course, within reason, having no external factors coming into play. When dealing with real estate, an appraisal of the property will include comparisons of what other people have agreed to pay for similar properties in the past.

You’ll often hear of situations where buyers and sellers try to inflate the sale price to help finalize the transaction artificially. Any scenario where the buyer isn’t coming up with all of the money for the downpayment, independent of the seller, impacts the LTV.

All details of a real estate transaction purchase and sale have to be disclosed to the lender. If there’s any money transferring behind the scenes, this impacts the LTV, and the lender won’t proceed with financing. Non-disclosure to the lender is mortgage fraud.

So there you have it; hopefully, this provides context to why lenders ask for documents to prove the source of your downpayment. If you’d like to talk about mortgage financing, please connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you.

Understanding a Spousal Buyout Mortgage

Wed, 02 Feb 2022 08:15:23 GMT

If you’re going through or considering a divorce or separation, you might not be aware that there are mortgage products designed to allow you to refinance your property and buy out your ex-spouse.

If you’re like most people, your property is your most significant asset and is where most of your equity is tied up. If this is the case, it’s possible to structure a new mortgage that allows you to purchase the property from your ex-spouse for up to 95% of the property’s value. Alternatively, if your ex-spouse wants to keep the property, they can buy you out using the same program.

It’s called the spousal buyout program. Here are some of the common questions people have about the program.

Is a finalized separation agreement required?

Yes. To qualify, you’ll need to provide the lender with a copy of the signed separation agreement, which clearly outlines asset allocation.

Can the net proceeds be used for home renovations or pay off loans?

No. The net proceeds can only buy out the other owner’s share of equity and/or pay off joint debt as explicitly agreed upon in the finalized separation agreement.

What is the maximum amount that you can access through the program?

The maximum equity you can withdraw is the amount agreed upon in the separation agreement to buy out the other owner’s share of the property and/or retire joint debts (if any), not exceeding 95% loan to value.

What is the maximum permitted loan to value?

The maximum loan to value is the lesser of 95% or the remaining mortgage + the equity required to buy out other owner and/or pay off joint debt (which, in some cases, can total < 95% LTV. The property must be the primary owner-occupied residence.

Do all parties have to be on title?

Yes. All parties to the transaction have to be current registered owners on title. Your solicitor will be required to confirm this with a title search.

Do the parties have to be a married or common-law couple?

No. Not only will the spousal buyout program support married and common-law couples who are divorcing or separating, but it’s also designed for friends or siblings who need an exit from a mortgage. The lender can consider this on an exception basis with insurer approval. In this case, as there won’t be a separation agreement, a standard clause will need to be included in the purchase contract to outline the buyout.

Is a full appraisal required?

Yes. When considering this type of mortgage, a physical appraisal of the property is required as part of the necessary documents to finalize the transaction.

While this is a good start to answering some of the questions you might have about getting a mortgage to help you through a marital breakdown, it’s certainly not comprehensive. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, not only do you get a choice between lenders and considerably more mortgage options, but you get the unbiased mortgage advice to ensure you understand all your options and get the right mortgage for you.

Please connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to discuss your needs directly and provide you with options to help you secure the best mortgage financing available. Also, please be assured that all communication will be held in the strictest of confidence.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 26th, 2022

Wed, 26 Jan 2022 15:04:30 GMT

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, removes exceptional forward guidance.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

January 26, 2022

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ %, with the Bank Rate at ½ % and the deposit rate at ¼ %. With overall economic slack now absorbed, the Bank has removed its exceptional forward guidance on its policy interest rate. The Bank is continuing its reinvestment phase, keeping its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds roughly constant.

The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is strong but uneven. The US economy is growing robustly while growth in some other regions appears more moderate, especially in China due to current weakness in its property sector. Strong global demand for goods combined with supply bottlenecks that hinder production and transportation are pushing up inflation in most regions. As well, oil prices have rebounded to well above pre-pandemic levels following a decline at the onset of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. Financial conditions remain broadly accommodative but have tightened with growing expectations that monetary policy will normalize sooner than was anticipated, and with rising geopolitical tensions. Overall, the Bank projects global GDP growth to moderate from 6¾ % in 2021 to about 3½ % in 2022 and 2023.

In Canada, GDP growth in the second half of 2021 now looks to have been even stronger than expected. The economy entered 2022 with considerable momentum, and a broad set of measures are now indicating that economic slack is absorbed. With strong employment growth, the labour market has tightened significantly. Job vacancies are elevated, hiring intentions are strong, and wage gains are picking up. Elevated housing market activity continues to put upward pressure on house prices.

The Omicron variant is weighing on activity in the first quarter. While its economic impact will depend on how quickly this wave passes, it is expected to be less severe than previous waves. Economic growth is then expected to bounce back and remain robust over the projection horizon, led by consumer spending on services, and supported by strength in exports and business investment. After GDP growth of 4½ % in 2021, the Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by 4% in 2022 and about 3½ % in 2023.

CPI inflation remains well above the target range and core measures of inflation have edged up since October. Persistent supply constraints are feeding through to a broader range of goods prices and, combined with higher food and energy prices, are expected to keep CPI inflation close to 5% in the first half of 2022. As supply shortages diminish, inflation is expected to decline reasonably quickly to about 3% by the end of this year and then gradually ease towards the target over the projection period. Near-term inflation expectations have moved up, but longer-run expectations remain anchored on the 2% target. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to ensure that higher near-term inflation expectations do not become embedded in ongoing inflation.

While COVID-19 continues to affect economic activity unevenly across sectors, the Governing Council judges that overall slack in the economy is absorbed, thus satisfying the condition outlined in the Bank’s forward guidance on its policy interest rate. The Governing Council therefore decided to end its extraordinary commitment to hold its policy rate at the effective lower bound. Looking ahead, the Governing Council expects interest rates will need to increase, with the timing and pace of those increases guided by the Bank’s commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.

The Bank will keep its holdings of Government of Canada bonds on its balance sheet roughly constant at least until it begins to raise the policy interest rate. At that time, the Governing Council will consider exiting the reinvestment phase and reducing the size of its balance sheet by allowing roll-off of maturing Government of Canada bonds.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 2, 2022. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report on April 13, 2022.

Construction Assignments

Wed, 19 Jan 2022 08:15:05 GMT

One of the benefits of working with an independent mortgage professional is having lots of great financing options! Rather than dealing with a single lender with one set of products, independent mortgage professionals work with multiple lenders who offer a wide selection of mortgage financing options that provide more choice.

Increased choice in mortgage products is beneficial when your situation isn’t “normal,” or you don’t quite fit the profile of a standard buyer. Purchasing a new construction home through an assignment contract would be a great example of this.

Purchasing a new construction home through an assignment contract can be tricky as not every lender wants the added perceived risk of dealing with this type of transaction. Most of these lenders won’t come out and say it; instead, they add a significant list of qualifying conditions to make the process harder.

The good news is, there are lenders available exclusively through the broker channel that have favourable policies for assignment purchases.

Here are some of the highlights:

All standard purchase qualifications apply, including applicable income verification, established credit, and required downpayment
Assignments can be at the original purchase price or current market value
Minimum 620 beacon score with no previous bankruptcies or consumer proposals
The full downpayment must come from the purchaser and not include any incentives from the seller.

As far as documentation goes, the lender will want to see the original purchase agreement signed by all parties, the MLS listing, the assignment agreement signed by the builder, the original purchaser, and the new buyer. The lender will also want to see the side agreement between the original purchaser and the new buyer, including the amended purchase price. The lender will want to substantiate the value through a full appraisal.

Now, as every situation is different, this list of conditions is in no way exhaustive but meant to show that assigning a new construction purchase contract is doable while highlighting some of the terms necessary to secure financing.

If you’re looking to purchase new construction through an assignment contract, or if you’d like to discuss purchasing a home through traditional means, please connect anytime! It would be a pleasure to outline the mortgage products on the market that won’t limit your financing options!

Understanding Payment Frequency

Wed, 12 Jan 2022 08:15:12 GMT

You’ve most likely heard that there are two certainties in life; death and taxes. Well, as it relates to your mortgage, the single certainty is that you will pay back what you borrow, plus interest. With that said, the frequency of how often you make payments to the lender is somewhat up to you!

The following looks at the different types of payment frequencies and how they impact your mortgage.

Here are the six payment frequency types

Monthly payments – 12 payments per year
Semi-Monthly payments – 24 payments per year
Bi-weekly payments – 26 payments per year
Weekly payments – 52 payments per year
Accelerated bi-weekly payments – 26 payments per year
Accelerated weekly payments – 52 payments per year

Options one through four are straightforward and designed to match your payment frequency with your employer. So if you get paid monthly, it makes sense to arrange your mortgage payments to come out a few days after payday. If you get paid every second Friday, it might make sense to have your mortgage payments match your payday.

However, options five and six have that word accelerated before the payment frequency. Accelerated bi-weekly and accelerated weekly payments accelerate how fast you pay down your mortgage. Choosing the accelerated option allows you to lower your overall cost of borrowing on autopilot. Here’s how it works.

With the accelerated bi-weekly payment frequency, you make 26 payments in the year. Instead of dividing the total annual payment by 26 payments, you divide the total yearly payment by 24 payments as if you set the payments as semi-monthly. Then you make 26 payments on the bi-weekly frequency at the higher amount.

So let’s use a $1000 payment as the example:

Monthly payments formula: $1000/1 with 12 payments per year. A payment of $1000 is made once per month for a total of $12,000 paid per year.

Semi-monthly formula: $1000/2 with 24 payments per year. A payment of $500 is paid twice per month for a total of $12,000 paid per year.

Bi-weekly formula: $1000 x 12 / 26 with 26 payments per year. A payment of $461.54 is made every second week for a total of $12,000 paid per year.

Accelerated bi-weekly formula: $1000/2 with 26 payments per year. A payment of $500 is made every second week for a total of $13,000 paid per year.

You see, by making the accelerated bi-weekly payments, it’s like you end up making two extra payments each year. By making a higher payment amount, you reduce your mortgage principal, which saves interest on the entire life of your mortgage.

The payments for accelerated weekly payments work the same way. It’s just that you’d be making 52 payments a year instead of 26.

By choosing an accelerated option for your payment frequency, you lower the overall cost of borrowing by making small extra payments as part of your regular payment schedule.

Now, exactly how much you’ll save over the life of your mortgage is hard to nail down. Calculations are hard to do because of the many variables; mortgages come with different amortization periods and terms with varying interest rates along the way. However, an accelerated bi-weekly payment schedule could reduce your amortization by up to three years if maintained throughout the life of your mortgage.

If you’d like to look at some of the numbers as they relate to you and your mortgage, please don’t hesitate to connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you.

Protect Yourself at Renewal

Wed, 05 Jan 2022 08:15:14 GMT

It’s a commonly held belief that if you’ve made your mortgage payments on time throughout the entirety of your mortgage term, that the lender is somehow obligated to renew your mortgage.

The truth is, a lender is never under any obligation to renew your mortgage. When you sign a mortgage contract, the lender draws it up for a defined time, so when that term comes to an end, the lender has every right to call the loan.

Now, granted, most lenders are happy to renew your mortgage, but several factors could come into play to prevent this from happening, including the following:

You’ve missed mortgage payments over the term.
The lender becomes aware that you’ve recently claimed bankruptcy.
The lender becomes aware that you’re going through a separation or divorce.
The lender becomes aware that you lost your job.
Someone on the initial mortgage contract has passed away.
The lender no longer likes the economic climate and/or geographic location of your property.
The lender is no longer licensed to lend money in Canada.

Again, while most lenders are happy to renew your mortgage at the end of the term, you need to understand that they are not under any obligation to do so.

So how do you protect yourself?

Well, the first plan of action is to get out in front of things. At least 120 days before your mortgage term expires, you should be speaking with an independent mortgage professional to discuss all of your options. By giving yourself this lead time and seeking professional advice, you put yourself in the best position to proactively look at all your options and decide what’s best for you.

When assessing your options at the time of renewal, even if the lender offers you a mortgage renewal, staying with your current lender is just one of the options you have. Just because your current lender was the best option when you got your mortgage doesn’t mean they are still the best option this time around. The goal is to assess all your options and choose the one that lowers your overall cost of borrowing. It’s never a good idea to sign a mortgage renewal without looking at all your options.

Also, dealing with an independent mortgage professional instead of directly with the lender ensures you have someone working for you, on your team, instead of seeking guidance from someone with the lender’s best interest in mind.

So if you have a mortgage that’s up for renewal, whether you’re being offered a renewal or not, the best plan of action is to protect yourself by working with an independent mortgage professional. Please connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you!

Getting a Mortgage After Bankruptcy

Wed, 29 Dec 2021 16:00:50 GMT

Sometimes life throws you a financial curveball. Bankruptcy and consumer proposals happen. It doesn’t mean your life is over, and it doesn’t mean you won’t ever qualify for a mortgage again.

The key to financial success here is getting things under control as quickly as possible. You must demonstrate to the potential lenders that what happened in the past won’t happen again in the future.

So if you’re thinking about getting a mortgage post-bankruptcy, lenders will want answers to the following questions:

How long have you been discharged?

Securing a mortgage will be dependent on how long it has been since you were discharged from your bankruptcy or consumer proposal. Most lenders consider the discharge date on both to be your new ground zero.

And while there is no legally defined waiting period for when you can apply for a new mortgage post-bankruptcy, what lenders will assess is how you’re managing your finances after your financial troubles.

Have you established new credit?

You can show lenders that they can trust you after bankruptcy by establishing new credit and managing that credit flawlessly. So as soon as you’ve been discharged, it’s a good idea to get a secured credit card and start rebuilding your credit score.

To be considered completely established, you’ll want to have two years of credit history on two trade lines with a credit limit of $2500 on each trade line. You’ll also want to make sure that you have no late or missed payments.

How much do you have available for a downpayment?

The more money you have to put towards purchasing a property, or the more equity you have in your property in the case of a refinance, the better your chances of getting a mortgage. The more money you bring to the table, the more comfortable a lender will feel about the risk they take of losing their investment should you run into future financial difficulty.

What is your total debt service ratio?

Another consideration lenders will look at is how much money you make compared to the cost of making your mortgage payments. So it probably goes without saying that the more money you make compared to the amount you want to borrow, the better.

Conventional or insured financing.

If you’re looking to get the best mortgage products available, here are some of the things a lender will want to see:

You’ve been discharged for at least two years plus a day.
You’ve established your credit (as listed above).
You have at least 5% down for the first $500k of the purchase and 10% down for anything over $500k.
If you don’t have a 20% downpayment, you will be required to secure mortgage insurance through CMHC, Sagen (formerly Genworth), or Canada Guaranty.
The cost to service the property and all your debts don’t exceed 44% of your gross income.

Alternative lending

As independent mortgage professionals, our job is to provide solutions and strategies for our clients. As such, in addition to dealing with many traditional lending institutions, we also have access to lenders who specialize in working with clients whose financial situation isn't all that straightforward. These private lenders offer alternative lending solutions that consider the overall strength of your mortgage application.

While you won’t qualify for the best rates and terms on the market by going with an alternative lender, if you’re looking for options, you might find that alternative lending is a very reasonable solution for you. Alternative lending isn’t for everyone, but it’s an excellent solution for some, especially if you’ve gone through a bankruptcy or consumer proposal and need a mortgage before fully establishing your credit.

Get in touch anytime.

So whether you’re looking for a plan to help you qualify for a mortgage with the most favourable terms or if you need something more immediate. Please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to outline your options and work on a plan to get you a mortgage.

Bridge Financing and Deposit Lending

Thu, 23 Dec 2021 13:30:52 GMT

Let’s say you have a home that you’ve outgrown; it’s time to make a move to something better suited to your needs and lifestyle. You have no desire to keep two properties, so selling your existing home and moving into something new (to you) is the best idea.

Ideally, when planning out how that looks, most people want to take possession of the new house before moving out of the old one. Not only does this make moving your stuff more manageable, but it also allows you to make the new home a little more “you” by painting or completing some minor renovations before moving in.

But what if you need the money from the sale of your existing home to come up with the downpayment for your next home? This situation is where bridge financing comes in.

Bridge financing allows you to bridge the financial gap between the firm sale of your current home and the purchase of your new home. Bridge financing allows you to access some of the equity in your existing property and use it for the downpayment on the property you are buying.

So now let’s also say that it’s a very competitive housing market where you’re looking to buy. Chances are you’ll want to make the best offer you can and include a significant deposit. If you don’t have immediate access to the cash in your bank account, but you do have equity in your home, a deposit loan allows you to make a very strong offer when negotiating the terms of purchasing your new home.

Now, to secure bridge financing and/or a deposit loan, you must have a firm sale on your existing home. If you don’t have a firm sale on your home, you won’t get the bridge financing or deposit loan because there is no concrete way for a lender to calculate how much equity you have available.

A firm sale is the key to securing bridge financing and a deposit loan.

So if you’d like to know more about bridge financing, deposit loans, or anything else mortgage-related, please connect anytime! It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Getting a Mortgage While on Parental Leave

Wed, 15 Dec 2021 16:00:36 GMT

Chances are if the title of this article piqued your interest enough to get you here, your family is probably growing. Congratulations!

If you’ve thought now is the time to find a new property to accommodate your growing family, but you’re unsure how your parental leave will impact your ability to get a mortgage, you’ve come to the right place!

Here’s how it works. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, it won’t be a problem to qualify your income on a mortgage application while on parental leave, as long as you have documentation proving that you have guaranteed employment when you return to work.

A word of caution, if you walk into your local bank to look for a mortgage and you disclose that you’re currently collecting parental leave, there’s a chance they’ll only allow you to use that income to qualify. This reduction in income isn’t ideal because at 55% of your previous income up to $595/week, you won’t be eligible to borrow as much, limiting your options.

The advantage of working with an independent mortgage professional is choice. You have a choice between lenders and mortgage products, including lenders who use 100% of your return-to-work income.

To qualify, you’ll need an employment letter from your current employer that states the following:

Your employer’s name preferably on the company letterhead
Your position
Your initial start date to ensure you’ve passed any probationary period
Your scheduled return to work date
Your guaranteed salary

For a lender to feel confident about your ability to cover your mortgage payments, they want to see that you have a position waiting for you once your parental leave is over. You might also be required to provide a history of your income for the past couple of years, but that is typical of mortgage financing.

Whether you intend to return to work after your parental leave is over or not, once the mortgage is in place, what you decide to do is entirely up to you. Mortgage qualification requires only that you have a position waiting for you.

If you have any questions about this or anything else mortgage-related, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 8th, 2021

Wed, 08 Dec 2021 15:40:25 GMT

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate and forward guidance

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank’s extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate is being maintained. The Bank is continuing its reinvestment phase, keeping its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds roughly constant.

The global economy continues to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic growth in the United States has accelerated, led by consumption, while growth in some other regions is moderating after a strong third quarter. Inflation has increased further in many countries, reflecting strong demand for goods amid ongoing supply disruptions. The new Omicron COVID-19 variant has prompted a tightening of travel restrictions in many countries and a decline in oil prices, and has injected renewed uncertainty. Accommodative financial conditions are still supporting economic activity.

Canada’s economy grew by about 5½ percent in the third quarter, as expected. Together with a downward revision to the second quarter, this brings the level of GDP to about 1½ percent below its level in the last quarter of 2019, before the pandemic began. Third-quarter growth was led by a rebound in consumption, particularly services, as restrictions were further eased and higher vaccination rates improved confidence. Persistent supply bottlenecks continued to inhibit growth in other components of GDP, including non-commodity exports and business investment.

Recent economic indicators suggest the economy had considerable momentum into the fourth quarter. This includes broad-based job gains in recent months that have brought the employment rate essentially back to its pre-pandemic level. Job vacancies remain elevated and wage growth has also picked up. Housing activity had been moderating, but appears to be regaining strength, notably in resales. The devastating floods in British Columbia and uncertainties arising from the Omicron variant could weigh on growth by compounding supply chain disruptions and reducing demand for some services.

CPI inflation is elevated and the impact of global supply constraints is feeding through to a broader range of goods prices. The effects of these constraints on prices will likely take some time to work their way through, given existing supply backlogs. Gasoline prices, which had been a major factor pushing up CPI inflation, have recently declined. Meanwhile, core measures of inflation are little changed since September. The Bank continues to expect CPI inflation to remain elevated in the first half of 2022 and ease back towards 2 percent in the second half of the year. The Bank is closely watching inflation expectations and labour costs to ensure that the forces pushing up prices do not become embedded in ongoing inflation.

The Governing Council judges that in view of ongoing excess capacity, the economy continues to require considerable monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s October projection, this happens sometime in the middle quarters of 2022. We will provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation target.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 26, 2022. The Bank will publish its full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report at the same time.

The Property Matters in Mortgage Financing

Wed, 01 Dec 2021 16:00:34 GMT

When looking to qualify for a mortgage, typically, a lender will want to review four areas of your mortgage application: income, credit, downpayment/equity and the property itself. Assuming you have a great job, excellent credit, and sufficient money in the bank to qualify for a mortgage, if the property you’re looking to purchase isn’t in good condition, if you don't have a plan, you might get some pushback from the lender.

The property matters to the lender because they hold it as collateral if you default on your mortgage. As such, you can expect that a lender will make every effort to ensure that any property they finance is in good repair. Because in the rare case that you happen to default on your mortgage, they want to know that if they have to repossess, they can sell the property quickly and recoup their money.

So when assessing the property as part of any mortgage transaction, an appraisal is always required to establish value. If your mortgage requires default mortgage insurance through CMHC, Sagen (formerly Genworth), or Canada Guaranty, they’ll likely use an automated system to appraise the property where the assessment happens online. A physical appraisal is required for conventional mortgage applications, which means an appraiser will assess the property on-site.

So why is this important to know? Well, because even if you have a great job, excellent credit, and money in the bank, you shouldn’t assume that you’ll be guaranteed mortgage financing. A preapproval can only take you so far. Once the mortgage process has started, the lender will always assess the property you’re looking to purchase. Understanding this ahead of time prevents misunderstandings and will bring clarity to the mortgage process.

Practically applied, if you’re attempting to buy a property in a hot housing market and you go in with an offer without a condition of financing, once the appraisal is complete, if the lender isn’t satisfied with the state or value of the property, you could lose your deposit.

Now, what happens if you’d like to purchase a property that isn’t in the best condition? Being proactive includes knowing that there is a purchase plus improvements program that can allow you to buy a property and include some of the cost of the renovations in the mortgage. It’s not as simple as just increasing the mortgage amount and then getting the work done, there’s a process to follow, but it’s very doable.

So if you have any questions about financing your next property or potentially using a purchase plus improvements to buy a property that needs a little work, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk you through the process.

Mortgage Options for Older Canadians

Wed, 24 Nov 2021 16:00:12 GMT

Although it’s ideal to have your mortgage paid off by the time you retire, that isn’t always possible in today’s economy. The cost of living is considerably higher than it has ever been, and as a result, many Canadians are putting off retirement, hoping to make just a bit more money to add to that nest egg.

So if you find yourself in the position where you’re considering your mortgage options into retirement, you’ve come to the right place.

The advantage of working with an independent mortgage professional instead of a single bank is choice. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, you won’t be limited to an individual institution’s products; rather, you will have access to considerably more options.

Here are some options available to older Canadians as they plan for mortgage financing through their retirement.

Standard Mortgage Financing

If you’ve got a steady income, decent credit, and equity in your home, there is no reason you shouldn’t qualify for standard mortgage financing, which usually comes at the lowest interest rates and best terms. Some lenders use pension and retirement income to support your mortgage application even if you’ve already retired.

Reverse Mortgage Financing

A reverse mortgage allows Canadian homeowners 55 years and older to borrow money from their homes with no proof of income, no credit check, and no health questions. A reverse mortgage is a fabulous mortgage solution that has helped thousands of older Canadians enhance their lifestyle.

Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC)

A line of credit secured to the equity you have in your home is an excellent tool to allow you to access money when you need it but not pay interest if you don’t need it. Many older Canadians like the idea of rolling all their expenses and income into one account.

Private Financing

If you happen to be in a bit of a tight spot, you have a plan but need a financial solution; private financing might be the answer. Indeed not the first choice for many because of the higher interest rates. However, private financing can provide you with options where a traditional bank can’t.

If you have any questions about securing mortgage financing for your retirement, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you and walk you through all your options.

Can you Trust Online Mortgage Calculators?

Wed, 17 Nov 2021 16:05:39 GMT

You’d think an online calculator is a pretty straightforward device, one that you should be able to place your confidence in, and for the most part, they are. Calculators calculate numbers. The numbers are reliable, but how you interpret those numbers, not so much, especially if the goal is mortgage qualification.

If you rely on the numbers from a “What can I afford” or “Mortgage Qualification” calculator without talking to an independent mortgage professional, you’re going to be misinformed.

Don’t be fooled. Even though an online mortgage calculator can help you calculate mortgage payments or help you assess how additional payments would impact your amortization, they’ll never be able to give you an exact picture of what you can afford and how a lender will consider your mortgage application.

While mortgage calculators are objective, mortgage lending isn’t. It’s 100% subjective. Lenders consider your financial situation, employment, credit history, assets, liabilities, the property you are looking to purchase. Then, they will compare that with whatever internal risk profile they are currently using to assess mortgage lending. Simply put, they don’t just look at the numbers.

An online calculator is a great tool to help you run different financial scenarios and help assess your comfort level with different payment schedules and mortgage amounts. However, if you rely on an online calculator for mortgage qualification purposes, you’ll be disappointed.

The first step in the mortgage qualification process is a preapproval. A preapproval will examine all the variables on your application, assess your financial situation, and provide you with a framework to buy a property based on your unique circumstance.

Securing a preapproval comes at no cost to you and without any obligation to buy. It’ll simply allow you the freedom to move ahead with confidence, knowing exactly where you stand. Something a calculator is unable to do.

Please connect anytime if you’d like to talk more about your financial situation and get a preapproval started. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Protect Your Credit Through a Divorce

Wed, 10 Nov 2021 16:00:14 GMT

Divorces are challenging as there’s a lot to think about in a short amount of time, usually under pressure. And while handling finances is often at the forefront of the discussions related to the separation of assets, unfortunately, managing and maintaining personal credit can be swept aside to deal with later.

So, if you happen to be going through or preparing for a divorce or separation, here are a few considerations that will help keep your credit and finances on track. The goal is to avoid significant setbacks as you look to rebuild your life.

Manage Your Joint Debt

If you have joint debt, you are both 100% responsible for that debt, which means that even if your ex-spouse has the legal responsibility to pay the debt, if your name is on the debt, you can be held responsible for the payments. Any financial obligation with your name on the account that falls into arrears will negatively impact your credit score, regardless of who is legally responsible for making the payments. A divorce settlement doesn’t mean anything to the lender.

The last thing you want is for your ex-spouse’s poor financial management to negatively impact your credit score for the next six to seven years. Go through all your joint credit accounts, and if possible, cancel them and have the remaining balance transferred into a loan or credit card in the name of whoever will be responsible for the remaining debt.

If possible, you should eliminate all joint debts. Now, it’s a good idea to check your credit report about three to six months after making the changes to ensure everything all joint debts have been closed and everything is reporting as it should be. It’s not uncommon for there to be errors on credit reports.

Manage Your Bank Accounts

Just as you should separate all your joint credit accounts, it’s a good idea to open a checking account in your name and start making all deposits there as soon as possible. You’ll want to set up the automatic withdrawals for the expenses and utilities you’ll be responsible for going forward in your own account.

At the same time, you’ll want to close any joint bank accounts you have with your ex-spouse and gain exclusive access to any assets you have. It’s unfortunate, but even in the most amicable situations, money (or lack thereof) can cause people to make bad decisions; you want to protect yourself by protecting your assets.

While opening new accounts, chances are your ex-spouse knows your passwords to online banking and might even know the pin to your bank card. Take this time to change all your passwords to something completely new, don’t just default to what you’ve used in the past. Better safe than sorry.

Setup New Credit in Your Name

There might be a chance that you’ve never had credit in your name alone or that you were a secondary signer on your ex-spouse’s credit card. If this is the case, it would be prudent to set up a small credit card in your name. Don’t worry about the limit; the goal is to get something in your name alone. Down the road, you can change things and work towards establishing a solid credit profile.

If you have any questions about managing your credit through a divorce, please don’t hesitate to connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

If You’re Looking to Sell Your Property, Start Here

Wed, 03 Nov 2021 15:00:09 GMT

And while talking with your mortgage professional might not sound like the most logical place to start, here are a few scenarios that explain why it makes the most sense.

If you’re buying a new property

If you’re not buying a new property

Marital breakdown

If you’d like to discuss the sale of your property and your plans for the future, connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you!

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 27th, 2021

Wed, 27 Oct 2021 14:11:19 GMT

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate and forward guidance, ends quantitative easing.

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank’s extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate is being maintained. The Bank is ending quantitative easing (QE) and moving into the reinvestment phase, during which it will purchase Government of Canada bonds solely to replace maturing bonds.

The global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is progressing. Vaccines are proving highly effective against the virus, although their availability and distribution globally remain uneven and COVID variants pose risks to health and economic activity. In the face of strong global demand for goods, pandemic-related disruptions to production and transportation are constraining growth. Inflation rates have increased in many countries, boosted by these supply bottlenecks and by higher energy prices. While bond yields have risen in recent weeks, financial conditions remain accommodative and continue to support economic activity.

The Bank projects global GDP will grow by 6½ percent in 2021 – a strong pace but less than projected in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) – and by 4¼ percent in 2022 and about 3½ percent in 2023.

In Canada, robust economic growth has resumed, following a pause in the second quarter. Strong employment gains in recent months were concentrated in hard-to-distance sectors and among workers most affected by lockdowns. This has significantly reduced the very uneven impact of the pandemic on workers. As the economy reopens, it is taking time for workers to find the right jobs and for employers to hire people with the right skills. This is contributing to labour shortages in certain sectors, even as slack remains in the overall labour market.

The Bank now forecasts Canada’s economy will grow by 5 percent this year before moderating to 4¼ percent in 2022 and 3¾ percent in 2023. Demand is expected to be supported by strong consumption and business investment, and a rebound in exports as the US economy continues to recover. Housing activity has moderated, but is expected to remain elevated. On the supply side, shortages of manufacturing inputs, transportation bottlenecks, and difficulties in matching jobs to workers are limiting the economy’s productive capacity. Although the impact and persistence of these supply factors are hard to quantify, the output gap is likely to be narrower than the Bank had forecast in July.

The recent increase in CPI inflation was anticipated in July, but the main forces pushing up prices – higher energy prices and pandemic-related supply bottlenecks – now appear to be stronger and more persistent than expected. Core measures of inflation have also risen, but by less than the CPI. The Bank now expects CPI inflation to be elevated into next year, and ease back to around the 2 percent target by late 2022. The Bank is closely watching inflation expectations and labour costs to ensure that the temporary forces pushing up prices do not become embedded in ongoing inflation.

The Governing Council judges that in view of ongoing excess capacity, the economy continues to require considerable monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s projection, this happens sometime in the middle quarters of 2022. In light of the progress made in the economic recovery, the Governing Council has decided to end quantitative easing and keep its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds roughly constant.

We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation target.

Information notes

A market notice outlining details of the reinvestment phase will be published on the Bank’s web site at 10:30 am ET today.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 8, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on January 26, 2022.

Monetary Policy Report October 2021.

Difference Between Deposit and Downpayment

Wed, 20 Oct 2021 15:00:10 GMT

If you’re new to the home buying process, it’s easy to get confused by some of the terms used. The purpose of this article is to clear up any confusion between the deposit and downpayment.

What is a deposit?

Your deposit goes ahead of the downpayment but makes up part of the downpayment.

What is a downpayment?

Your downpayment refers to the initial payment you make when buying a property through mortgage financing.

Example scenario

If you have any questions about the difference between the deposit and the downpayment or any other mortgage terms, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Understanding your Employment Status

Wed, 13 Oct 2021 15:00:09 GMT

Chances are if you’re applying for a mortgage, you feel confident about the state of your current employment or your ability to find a similar position if you need to. However, your actual employment status probably means more to the lender than you might think. You see, to a lender, your employment status is a strong indicator of your employer’s commitment to your continued employment.

So, regardless of how you feel about your position, it’s what can be proven on paper that matters most. Let’s walk through some of the common ways lenders can look at employment status.

Permanent Employment

The gold star of employment. If your employer has made you a permanent employee, it means that your position is as secure as any position can be. When a lender sees permanent status (passed probation), it gives them the confidence that you’re valuable to the company and that they can rely on your income.

Probationary Period

Despite the quality of your job, if you’ve only been with the company for a short while, you’ll be required to prove that you’ve passed any probationary period. Although most probationary periods are typically 3-6 months, they can be longer. You might now even be aware that you’re under probation.

The lender will want to make sure that you’re not under a probationary period because your employment can be terminated without any cause while under probation. Once you’ve made it through your initial evaluation, the lender will be more confident in your employment status.

Now, it’s not the length of time with the employer that the lender is scrutinizing; instead, it’s the status of your probation. So if you’ve only been with a company for one month, but you’ve been working with them as a contractor for a few years, and they’re willing to waive the probationary period based on a previous relationship, that should give the lender all the confidence they need. We’ll have to get that documented.

Parental Leave

Suppose you’re currently on, planning to be on, or just about to be done a parental leave, regardless of the income you’re now collecting, as long as you have an employment letter that outlines your guaranteed return to work position (and date). In that case, you can use your return to work income to qualify on your mortgage application. It’s not the parental leave that the lender has issues with; it’s the ability you have to return to the position you left.

Term Contracts

Term contracts are hands down the most ambiguous and misunderstood employment status as it’s usually well-qualified and educated individuals who are working excellent jobs with no documented proof of future employment.

A term contract indicates that you have a start date and an end date, and you are paid a specific amount for that specified amount of time. Unfortunately, the lack of stability here is not a lot for a lender to go on when evaluating your long-term ability to repay your mortgage.

So to qualify income on a term contract, you want to establish the income you’ve received for at least two years. However, sometimes lenders like to see that your contract has been renewed at least once before considering it as income towards your mortgage application.

In summary

If you’ve recently changed jobs or are thinking about making a career change, and qualifying for a mortgage is on the horizon, or if you have any questions at all, please connect anytime. We can work through the details together and make sure you have a plan in place. It would be a pleasure to work with you!

Using an RRSP for a Home Purchase

Wed, 06 Oct 2021 15:00:30 GMT

Your first home (with some exceptions)

Another exception is for those with a disability or those helping someone with a disability. In this case, you can withdraw from an RRSP for a home purchase at any time.

You have to pay back the RRSP

Access to funds

You can access up to $35,000 individually or $70,00 per couple through the HBP.

Please connect anytime if you’d like to know more about the HBP and how it could work for you as you plan your downpayment. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Downpayment Options

Wed, 29 Sep 2021 15:00:07 GMT

As your downpayment can be a significant amount of money, you probably need a plan to put this money together. So, let’s take a look at some of the options you have to come up with a downpayment.

Money from your resources

You have to prove the source of your downpayment funds to the lender when qualifying for a mortgage to help prevent money laundering.

Funds from the sale of another property

RRSPs through the Home Buyer’s Plan

Gifted downpayment

Borrowed downpayment

It’s possible to borrow your downpayment as long as you include the payments in your debt service ratios. Typically this is 3% of the outstanding balance.

If you’d like to discuss your downpayment or anything else related to mortgage financing; It’s never too early to start the conversation about getting pre-approved for a mortgage. Please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you!

Pay Down Your Mortgage Faster

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 15:00:27 GMT

Being a home owner is excellent, having a huge mortgage isn’t. So, if you have a mortgage that you’re looking to get rid of as quickly as possible, here are four things you should consider doing.

Accelerate your payments

Increase your regular mortgage payments

Make a lump-sum payment

Review your options regularly

If you’ve got questions about your existing mortgage or want to compare your mortgage to options available today, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Lowering Your Overall Cost of Borrowing

Wed, 15 Sep 2021 15:00:15 GMT

Choosing a mortgage with a low rate is a part of lowering your borrowing costs, but it’s certainly not the only factor. There are many other factors to consider; here are a few of them:

How long do you anticipate living in the property? This will help you decide on an appropriate term.
Do you plan on moving for work, or do you need the flexibility to move in the future? This could help you decide if portability is important to you.
What does the prepayment penalty look like if you have to break your term? This is probably the biggest factor in lowering your overall cost of borrowing.
How is the lender’s interest rate differential calculated, what figures do they use? This is very tough to figure out on your own. Get help.
What are the prepayment privileges? If you’d like to pay down your mortgage faster.
How is the mortgage registered on the title? This could impact your ability to switch to another lender upon renewal without incurring new legal costs, or it could mean increased flexibility down the line.
Should you consider a fixed rate, variable rate, HELOC, or a reverse mortgage? There are many different types of mortgages; each has its own pros and cons.
What is the size of your downpayment? Coming up with more money down might lower (or eliminate) mortgage insurance premiums, saving you thousands of dollars.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Sept 8th, 2021

Wed, 08 Sep 2021 14:15:02 GMT

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues forward guidance and current pace of quantitative easing

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate. This is reinforced and supplemented by the Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program, which is being maintained at a target pace of $2 billion per week.

The global economic recovery continued through the second quarter, led by strong US growth, and had solid momentum heading into the third quarter. However, supply chain disruptions are restraining activity in some sectors and rising cases of COVID-19 in many regions pose a risk to the strength of the global recovery. Financial conditions remain highly accommodative.

In Canada, GDP contracted by about 1 percent in the second quarter, weaker than anticipated in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). This largely reflects a contraction in exports, due in part to supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto sector. Housing market activity pulled back from recent high levels, largely as expected. Consumption, business investment and government spending all contributed positively to growth, with domestic demand growing at more than 3 percent.

Employment rebounded through June and July, with hard-to-distance sectors hiring as public health restrictions eased. This is reducing unevenness in the labour market, although considerable slack remains and some groups – particularly low-wage workers – are still disproportionately affected. The Bank continues to expect the economy to strengthen in the second half of 2021, although the fourth wave of COVID-19 infections and ongoing supply bottlenecks could weigh on the recovery.

CPI inflation remains above 3 percent as expected, boosted by base-year effects, gasoline prices, and pandemic-related supply bottlenecks. These factors pushing up inflation are expected to be transitory, but their persistence and magnitude are uncertain and will be monitored closely. Wage increases have been moderate to date, and medium-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored. Core measures of inflation have risen, but by less than the CPI.

The Governing Council judges that the Canadian economy still has considerable excess capacity, and that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s July projection, this happens in the second half of 2022. The Bank's QE program continues to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve. Decisions regarding future adjustments to the pace of net bond purchases will be guided by Governing Council's ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 27, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

Before You Co-Sign a Mortgage

Wed, 01 Sep 2021 15:00:02 GMT

You’re fully responsible for the mortgage.

You’re on the mortgage until they can qualify to remove you.

Co-signing a mortgage impacts your debt service ratio.

As this could significantly impact the amount you could borrow in the future, before you co-sign a mortgage, you’ll want to assess your financial future and decide if co-signing makes sense.

Co-signing a mortgage means helping someone get ahead.

If you have any questions about co-signing on a mortgage or about the mortgage application process in general, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Protect Yourself with a Pre-Approval

Tue, 24 Aug 2021 20:36:37 GMT

Finding that balance between what makes sense in your head and what feels right in your heart is challenging. And the further you are in the process, the more desperate you may feel.

So before you ever look at a property, you should know exactly what you can qualify for so that you can shop within a set price range and you won’t be disappointed.

Protect yourself with a mortgage pre-approval. A pre-approval does a few things

It will outline your buying power. You will be able to shop with confidence, knowing exactly how much you can spend.
It will uncover any issues that might arise in qualifying for a mortgage, for example, mistakes on your credit bureau.
It will outline the necessary supporting documentation required to get a mortgage so you can be prepared.
It will secure a rate for 30 to 120 days, depending on your mortgage product.
It will save your heart from the pain of falling in love with something you can’t afford.

Get a pre-approval before you start shopping; your heart will thank you.

If you’d like to walk through your financial situation and get pre-approved for a mortgage, let’s talk. It would be a pleasure to work with you!

Canadian Inflation Hits Highest Reading in Two Decades

Wed, 18 Aug 2021 16:45:17 GMT

Annual Inflation Hits 3.7% in Canada–A New Election Issue

This morning’s Stats Canada release showed that the July CPI surged to a 3.7% year-over-year pace, well above the 3.1% pace recorded in June. This is now the fourth consecutive month in which inflation is above the1% to 3% target band of the Bank of Canada. And given the flash election, opposition parties are already making hay. “The numbers released today make it clear that under Justin Trudeau, Canadians are experiencing a cost of living crisis,” Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole said in a statement. He went on to suggest that the Liberal government is stoking inflation with its debt-financed government spending programs.

While it is true that deficit spending has surged during the pandemic, the same is also true for nearly every country in the world. Moreover, accelerating inflation is a global phenomenon and most central banks believe it to be temporary. Certainly, Tiff Macklem is firmly of that view, as is the Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Supply disruptions and base effects have largely caused the rise in inflation. Semiconductor production, for example, slumped during the 2020 lockdowns, and then couldn’t be ramped up fast enough when demand for cars and electronics returned, leading the prices of new and used autos to rise at a record pace. Prices for airfares and hotel stays also jumped. Companies found themselves short of workers as they reopened, leading some to offer bonuses or boost wages and subsequently raise prices for consumers.

Central bankers believe that the price pressures are transitory, representing temporary shocks associated with the reopening of the economy. Lumber prices, for example, spiked when demand for new homes returned and have since normalized (see the chart below). To be sure, above-target inflation has heightened uncertainty. The central banks do not want to choke off the economic recovery through misplaced inflation fears. Many Canadians remain out of work, and long-term unemployment is still very high. Moreover, the recent surge of the delta variant proves that the recovery is uncertain.

Governor Tiff Macklem, whose latest forecasts show inflation creeping up to 3.9% in the third quarter before easing at the end of the year, has warned against overreacting to the “temporary” spike .

Shelter Prices Rising Fastest

Prices rose faster year over year in six of the eight major components of Canadian inflation in July, with shelter prices contributing the most to the all-items increase. Conversely, prices for clothing and footwear and alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and recreational cannabis slowed on a year-over-year basis in July compared with June. Year over year, gasoline prices rose less in July (+30.9%) than in June (+32.0%). A base-year effect continued to impact the gasoline index, as prices in July 2020 increased 4.4% on a month-over-month basis when many businesses and services reopened.

In July 2021, gasoline prices increased 3.5% month over month, as oil production by OPEC+ (countries from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus) remained below pre-pandemic levels though global demand increased.

The homeowners’ replacement cost index , which is related to the price of new homes, continued to trend upward, rising 13.8% year over year in July, the largest yearly increase since October 1987.

Similarly, the other owned accommodation expenses index, which includes commission fees on the sale of real estate, was up 13.4% year over year in July.

Year-over-year price growth for goods rose at a faster pace in July (+5.0%) than in June (+4.5%), with durable goods (+5.0%) accelerating the most. The purchase of passenger vehicles index contributed the most to the increase, rising 5.5% year over year in July. The gain was partially attributable to the global shortage of semiconductor chips.

Prices for upholstered furniture rose 13.4% year over year in July, largely due to lower supply and higher input costs.

Core Measures

The average of core inflation readings, a better gauge of underlying price pressures, rose to 2.47% in July, the highest since 2009.

Monthly, prices rose 0.6% versus a consensus estimate of 0.3%. Rising costs to own a home are one of the biggest contributors to the elevated inflation rate, following a surge in real-estate prices over the past year.

Bottom Line

Today’s inflation data likely did little to alter the Bank of Canada’s view that above-target inflation will be a transitory phenomenon. They are already ahead of most central banks in tapering the stimulus coming from quantitative easing. They do not expect to start increasing interest rates until the labour markets have returned to full employment, which they judge to occur in the second half of 2022. In the meantime, pent-up demand in Canada is huge as people tap into their involuntary savings during the lockdown to pay higher prices at restaurants, grocery stores and gas stations. Financial markets appear to be sanguine about the prospect for rate hikes, as bond yields have been trading in a very narrow range.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Canadian Home Sales Slow for Fourth Consecutive Month

Mon, 16 Aug 2021 19:01:26 GMT

The Slowdown In Canadian Housing Continued in July

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing home sales fell 3.5% nationally from June to July 2021--the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Over the same period, the number of newly listed properties dropped 8.8%, and the MLS Home Price Index rose 0.6% and was up 22.2% year-over-year.

While sales are now down a cumulative 28% from the March peak, Canadian housing markets are still historically quite active (see Chart below). In July, the decline in sales activity was not as widespread geographically as in prior months, although sales were down in roughly two-thirds of all local markets. Edmonton and Calgary led the slowdown, but these cities didn't experience falling sales until recently. In Montreal, in contrast, where sales began to moderate at the start of the year, activity edged up in July.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in July 2021 was down 15.2% on a year-over-year basis from the record for that month set last July. July 2021 sales nonetheless still marked the second-best month of July on record.

“While the moderation of sales activity continues to capture most of the headlines these days, it’s record-low inventories that should be our focus,” said Cliff Stevenson, Chair of CREA. Most markets are in sellers' market territory.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes dropped by 8.8% in July compared to June, with declines led by Canada's largest cities – the GTA, Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary. Across the country, new supply was down in about three-quarters of all markets in July.

This was enough to noticeably tighten the sales-to-new listings ratio despite sales activity also slowing on the month. The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 74% in July 2021, up from 69.9% in June. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.7%.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, the tightening of market conditions in July tipped a small majority of local markets back into seller’s market territory, reversing the trend of more balanced markets seen in June.

Another piece of evidence that conditions may be starting to stabilize was the number of months of inventory. There were 2.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of July 2021, unchanged from June. This is extremely low – still indicative of a strong seller’s market at the national level and most local markets. The long-term average for this measure is twice where it stands today.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.6% month-over-month in July 2021, continuing the trend of decelerating month-over-month growth that began in March. That deceleration has yet to show up in any noticeable way on the East Coast, where property is relatively more affordable.

Additionally, a more recent point worth noting (and watching) just in the last month has seen prices for certain property types in certain Ontario markets look like they might be re-accelerating. This could be in line with a re-tightening of market conditions in some areas.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 22.2% on a year-over-year basis in July. While still a substantial gain, it was, as expected, down from the record 24.4% year-over-year increase in June. The reason the year-over-year comparison has started to fall is that we are now more than a year removed from when prices really took off last year, so last year’s price levels are now catching up with this year’s, even though prices are currently still rising from month to month.

Looking across the country, year-over-year price growth averages around 20% in B.C., though it is lower in Vancouver and higher in other parts of the province. Year-over-year price gains in the 10% range were recorded in Alberta and Saskatchewan, while gains are closer to 15% in Manitoba. Ontario sees an average year-over-year rate of price growth in the 30% range. However, as with B.C., gains are notably lower in the GTA and considerably higher in most other parts of the province. The opposite is true in Quebec, where Montreal is in the 25% range, and Quebec City is in the 15% range. Price growth is running a little above 30% in New Brunswick, while Newfoundland and Labrador is in the 10% range.

Bottom Line

Sales activity will continue to gradually cool over the next year, but it will take higher interest rates to soften the housing market in a meaningful way. Local housing markets are cooling off as prospective buyers contend with a dearth of houses for sale. Though increasing vaccination rates have begun to bring a return to normal life in Canada, that’s left the country to contend with one of the developed world’s most severe housing shortages and little prospect of much new supply becoming available soon.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Canadian Job Growth Continued in July As Unemployment Rate Fell to 7.5%

Fri, 06 Aug 2021 16:45:30 GMT

Canada’s labour market continued its recovery in July as health restrictions were lifted, but the gains were shy of expectations. The report signals the economic rebound is intact and shows companies are finding workers as pandemic restrictions vanish. The smaller-than-expected increase, though, could cast some doubt on the pace of hiring. The gains last month were largely in full-time private-sector employment, particularly among youth and women.

The Labour Force Survey showed employment rose 94,000 (+0.5%) in July, adding to the 231,000 (+1.2%) increase in June. The two months reversed the 275,000 jobs lost during lockdowns in April and May. Of the three million jobs lost at the start of the crisis, 2.74 million have now been recovered. The employment rate was 60.3% in July, still 1.5 percentage points below the pre-pandemic rate.

The unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 7.5%, matching the post-February 2020 low hit earlier this year.Employment growth in July was almost entirely in Ontario. Youth aged 15 to 24 and core-aged women aged 25 to 54 accounted for the bulk of gains in the month. Women were hardest hit by the pandemic’s loss of childcare/schooling, so the make-up of employment gains will likely be skewed towards them.

The number of employed people who worked less than half their usual hours fell by 116,000 (-10.1%) in July. Total hours worked were up 1.3% and were 2.7% below their pre-pandemic level.

Self-employment was little changed in July and was down 7.1% (-205,000) compared with February 2020. The number of self-employed workers has seen virtually no growth since the onset of the pandemic.

The number of employees in the public sector fell by 31,000 (-0.7%) in July, the first decline since April 2020. Nearly half of the monthly decrease was in Quebec (-15,000; -1.5%) and was partly due to a larger-than-usual summer decrease in the number of educational services workers. Despite this decline, public sector employment at the national level was up 150,000 (+3.8%) compared with February 2020.

In terms of provinces, Ontario accounted for the majority of July’s improvement, as employment increased by 72k in the province. Manitoba (+7k), Nova Scotia (+4k), and Prince Edward Island (+1k) also saw employment advance on the month. New Brunswick (-3k), Saskatchewan (-5k), and B.C. (-3k) lost jobs in July.

Lastly, total hours worked improved by a robust 1.3% in July, but it is still 2.7% below its pre-pandemic level.

The Canadian jobs report coincided with the release on Friday of surprisingly strong U.S. payroll numbers, where 943,000 positions were added last month.

Bottom Line

According to the Bank of Canada, employment will need to surpass pre-pandemic levels before complete recovery is declared because the population has grown since the start of the crisis.

July was another solid month for the Canadian labour market as the loosening of public health restrictions across the country spurred hiring activity. That said, capacity limits and travel restrictions held back high-touch businesses from operating at full capacity, limiting job gains in July.

Indeed, employment in high-touch services is still well below pre-pandemic levels. Even with gains in July, accommodation and food services employment was nearly 20% below its February 2020 level. It’s important to note that July’s labour survey was taken during the week of July 11th, and restrictions in some provinces were loosened at the end of that week. So, we could see the recovery continue to strengthen in August.

There are growing headwinds, however. Concerns around the Delta variant are rising, and some countries, harder hit by the virus, are re-imposing restrictions. Canada has not yet been compelled to do so due to low hospitalization levels, but cases are rising. While the impressive vaccination drive should keep hospitalization rates low, health worries could dent consumer and business confidence. Indeed, the economy’s path forward will be closely linked to the evolution of the pandemic.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 14th, 2021

Wed, 14 Jul 2021 14:15:54 GMT

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate and forward guidance, adjusts quantitative easing program.

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate. This is reinforced and supplemented by the Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program, which is being adjusted to a target pace of $2 billion per week. This adjustment reflects continued progress towards recovery and the Bank’s increased confidence in the strength of the Canadian economic outlook.

The global economy is recovering strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic, with continued progress on vaccinations, particularly in advanced economies. However, the recovery is still highly uneven and remains dependent on the course of the virus. The recent spread of new COVID-19 variants is a growing concern, especially for regions where vaccinations rates remain low.

Global GDP growth is expected to reach 7 percent this year and then moderate to about 4 ½ percent in 2022 and just over 3 percent in 2023. This a slightly stronger forecast than the one in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and primarily reflects a stronger US outlook. Global financial conditions remain highly accommodative. Rising demand is supporting higher oil prices, while non-energy commodity prices remain elevated. The Canada-US exchange rate is little changed since April.

In Canada, the third wave of the virus slowed growth in the second quarter. However, falling COVID-19 cases, progress on vaccinations and easing containment restrictions all point to a strong pickup in the second half of this year. The Bank now expects GDP growth of around 6 percent in 2021 – a little slower than was expected in April – but has revised up its 2022 forecast to 4 ½ percent and projects 3 ¼ percent growth in 2023.

Consumption is expected to lead the recovery as households return to more normal spending patterns, while housing market activity is projected to ease back from historical highs. Stronger international demand should underpin a solid recovery in exports. As domestic and foreign demand increases and confidence improves, business investment will gain strength. Employment has once again begun to rebound, and we expect the hardest-hit segments of the labour market to post strong gains as the economy re-opens. However, the pace of the recovery will vary among industries and workers, and it could take some time to hire workers with the right skills to fill jobs. The aftermath of lockdowns and ongoing structural changes in the economy both mean that estimates of potential output and when the output gap will close are particularly uncertain.

CPI inflation was 3.6 percent in May, boosted by temporary factors that include base-year effects and stronger gasoline prices, as well as pandemic-related bottlenecks as economies re-open. Core measures of inflation have also risen but by less than the CPI. In some high-contact services, demand is rebounding faster than supply, pushing up prices from low levels. Transitory supply constraints in shipping and value chain disruptions for semiconductors are also translating into higher prices for cars and some other goods. With higher gasoline prices and on-going supply bottlenecks, inflation is likely to remain above 3 percent through the second half of this year and ease back toward 2 percent in 2022, as short-run imbalances diminish and the considerable overall slack in the economy pulls inflation lower. The factors pushing up inflation are transitory, but their persistence and magnitude are uncertain and will be monitored closely.

The Governing Council judges that the Canadian economy still has considerable excess capacity, and that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s July projection, this happens sometime in the second half of 2022. The Bank's QE program continues to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve. Decisions regarding further adjustments to the pace of net bond purchases will be guided by Governing Council's ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 8, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 27, 2021.

Monetary Policy Report - July 2021

Canadian Jobs Market Rebounds in June As Lockdown Eases

Fri, 09 Jul 2021 17:23:27 GMT

Canada’s Jobs Recovery Resumed in June As Lockdown Began to Ease

This morning, Statistics Canada released the June 2021 Labour Force Survey showing employment rose 230,700 (1.2%) in June, rebounding from a cumulative decline over the previous two months of 275,000. Total hours worked were little changed. The national unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points to 7.8%.

Jobs continue to swing back and forth as the various COVID waves drive lockdowns and reopenings. Hopefully, we’re in the last of the reopenings. Services accounted for all of the gains. Hospitality jobs were the biggest gainer, as expected, adding 101k positions, but they remain well below pre-virus levels. Restrictions are expected to continue easing through the summer, which should mean more solid gains over the next couple of months. Other sectors seeing a boost from the reopening were retail/wholesale (+78k), education (+26k) and health care (+20.5k). Goods sectors were down across the board, with losses concentrated in construction (-23k) and manufacturing (-12k).

Beyond the headline increase, one of the bigger stories in this report is the sharp 0.6 ppt rise in the participation rate to 65.2%. That’s the largest increase in a year and leaves the rate 3-4 ticks away from pre-COVID levels. Compare that to the U.S., where the participation rate is still nearly 2 ppts lower than in early 2020. The rise in the participation rate limited the decline in the jobless rate to 0.4 ppts to 7.8%, still some wood to chop there. The rising participation rate should alleviate some concerns about widespread labour shortages.The bulk of the gains were in pandemic-exposed sectors, like retail, food and accommodation, that got hit most by the new containment measures. Employment in accommodation and food services was up 101,000. The retail sector added 75,000 jobs.

Increasing vaccination rates and falling Covid-19 case counts have allowed the country to finally re-open restaurants, bars and retail stores after months of closures. Ontario began allowing patio dining earlier this month, and several cities in Quebec have further relaxed restrictions, allowing indoor dining for the first time this year.

With the June gains, Canada has recovered 2.65 million of the 3 million jobs lost at the height of the pandemic last year. The nation created 263,900 part-time jobs, with full-time employment down 33,200.Employment growth in June was entirely in part-time work and concentrated among youth aged 15 to 24, primarily young women. Increases were greatest in accommodation and food services and retail trade, consistent with the lifting or easing public health restrictions affecting these industries in late May and early June in many jurisdictions.

The number of employed people working less than half their usual hours fell by 276,000 (-19.3%) in June. Total hours worked were little changed and were 4.0% below their pre-pandemic level.

The employment increase in June was in part-time work, which rose by 264,000 (+8.0%) following combined losses of 132,000 over the previous two months. The overall level of part-time employment was essentially the same as in February 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Increases in the month were driven by accommodation and food services and retail trade—two industries where part-time workers represent an above-average proportion of employment—and were concentrated among youth.

After falling by 143,000 over the previous two months, full-time work was little changed in June and was 336,000 (-2.2%) lower than its pre-pandemic level.

Gains were driven by private-sector employees, while self-employment declines.

The number of private-sector employees rose by 251,000 (+2.1%) in June, following two monthly declines. As of June, the number of private-sector employees was 2.5% lower (-313,000) than in February 2020.

In the public sector, employment rose by 43,000 (+1.1%) in June, bringing it to 180,000 (+4.6%) above pre-pandemic levels. Employment in this sector has trended up following the initial wave of the pandemic, particularly driven by increases in health care and social assistance, public administration, and educational services.

The number of self-employed workers fell by 63,000 (-2.3%) in June and was down 7.2% (-207,000) compared with February 2020. Self-employment is a broad category that includes workers in various situations, including working owners of incorporated or unincorporated businesses and independent contractors. Compared with June 2019, declines in the number of self-employed were widespread across multiple industries and were concentrated among the self-employed with paid help.

The employment rate remains below pre-pandemic levels.

To fully understand current and emerging labour market trends, it is essential to consider employment change against the backdrop of population change, which totalled 1.1% (+334,000) between February 2020 and June 2021. To keep pace with this population growth and maintain a stable employment rate—that is, employment as a proportion of the population aged 15 and over—employment would have had to grow by 203,000. Instead, total employment was 340,000 lower in June than in February 2020, and the employment rate was 1.7 percentage points lower (60.1% compared with 61.8%).

Number of Canadians who worked from home drops by nearly 400,000

Among Canadians who worked at least half their usual hours in June, the number who worked from home fell by nearly 400,000 to 4.7 million. For 2.6 million of these people, working from home represented an adaptation to the COVID-19 pandemic, as this was not their usual work location. At the same time, the number of people working at locations other than home rose by approximately 700,000 to 12.3 million.

Almost one-third (31.4%) of workers aged 25 to 54 and more than one-quarter (27.2%) of those aged 55 and older worked from home in June. Due to their concentration in industries where working from home is less feasible, such as accommodation and food services, a far smaller proportion of youth aged 15 to 24 (12.9%) did so.

Regionally , Ontario and Quebec led the way higher, though B.C. and Nova Scotia had solid increases as well. Interestingly, even with restrictions easing through most of the country, only five provinces reported job gains.

Bottom Line

The jobs report is the last major piece of economic data before next week’s Bank of Canada policy decision, where it’s expected to continue paring back its stimulus efforts. The Bank of Canada is among the first from advanced economies to shift to a less expansionary policy, having already cut its purchases of Canadian government bonds to $3 billion weekly from a peak of $5 billion last year.

Analysts anticipate that will come down to C$2 billion per week at the July 14 meeting before eventually falling to a weekly pace of about C$1 billion by early next year. In addition to the bond tapering, the market has priced in at least one interest rate hike by this time next year.

Canada’s economy remains 340,000 jobs shy of pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate was below 6% before the pandemic.

With vaccination rates rising and restrictions easing, economists are predicting a strong rebound in the second half. According to a Bloomberg News survey of economists earlier this month, Canada’s expansion is seen accelerating to an annualized pace of 9.1% in the third quarter, with a 6% gain in the final three months of 2021. Consumer and business confidence regarding the outlook has recently hit record highs.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Canadian Housing Continues to Moderate in May

Tue, 15 Jun 2021 19:34:29 GMT

The Slowdown In Canadian Housing Continued in May

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing home sales fell 7.4% nationally from April to May 2021, building on the 11% decline in April. Over the same period, the number of newly listed properties fell 6.4%, and the MLS Home Price Index rose 1.0%, a marked deceleration from previous months.

Activity nonetheless remains historically high, but in contrast to March’s all-time record, it is now running closer to levels seen in the second half of 2020 (see chart below). Month-over-month declines in sales activity were observed in close to 80% of all local markets. It was a mixed bag of results, with a slowdown in sales observed in most large markets across Canada.

“While housing markets across Canada remain very active, we now have two months of moderating activity in the books, and that goes for demand, supply and prices,” stated Cliff Stevenson, Chair of CREA. “More and more, there is anecdotal evidence of offer fatigue and frustration among buyers, and the urgency to lock down a place to ride out COVID would also be expected to fade at this point given where we are with the pandemic”.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes declined by 6.4% in May compared to April. New listings were down in about 70% of all local markets in May.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 75.4% in May 2021, down slightly from 76.2% posted in April. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.6%, so it remains historically high; although, it has been moderating since peaking at 90.7% back in January.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, only about a quarter of all local markets were in balanced market territory in May, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other three-quarters of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.

As the chart below shows, Edmonton was one market in balance, and the Greater Vancouver Area was moving closer to balance, but others remain a seller’s market.

There were 2.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of May 2021, up from a record-low 1.7 months in March but still well below the long-term average for this measure of over 5 months.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 1% month-over-month in May 2021 – a noticeable deceleration. The most recent deceleration in month-over-month price growth has come from the single-family space compared to the more affordable townhome and apartment segments.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 24.4% on a year-over-year basis in May. Based on data back to 2005, this was another record year-over-year increase; although, it is not likely to go much higher.

While the largest year-over-year gains continue to be posted across Ontario, this is also where month-over-month price growth has been slowing the most. Meanwhile, price growth has continued to accelerate in some other parts of the country, thus reducing the year-over-year growth disparity between Ontario and other provinces.

Bottom Line

The near-uniform nature of the housing market activity (in what is usually a highly regionalized market) is still a key feature of this cycle. Indeed, 22 of 26 markets tracked by CREA saw sales fall in May, while all but one market saw the average transaction price up by double-digits from a year ago (sorry, Thunder Bay). Among the tightest markets in the country based on the sales-to-new listings ratio are the Okanagan and Kawartha Lakes; cottage country is still on fire.

The two-month slowdown in Canadian housing is welcome news. The OECD recently released a report showing that New Zealand, Canada and Sweden have the frothiest housing markets in the world. The UK and the US are near the top as well. Clearly, Covid led many around the world to alter their abode, driving prices higher almost everywhere.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jun 9th, 2021

Wed, 09 Jun 2021 15:15:40 GMT

Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is sustainably achieved, continues quantitative easing

With COVID-19 cases falling in many countries and vaccine coverage rising, global economic activity is picking up. Growth remains uneven across regions, however. The US is experiencing a strong consumer-driven recovery and a rebound is beginning to take shape in Europe, while a resurgence of the virus is hampering the recovery in some emerging market economies. Financial conditions remain highly accommodative, reflected in broadly higher asset prices. Commodity prices have risen further, notably oil, and the Canadian dollar has seen a further appreciation.

In Canada, economic developments have been broadly in line with the outlook in the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Despite the second wave of the virus, first quarter GDP growth came in at a robust 5.6 per cent. While this was lower than the Bank had projected, the underlying details indicate rising confidence and resilient demand. Household spending was stronger than expected, while businesses drew down inventories and increased imports more than anticipated. Renewed lockdowns associated with the third wave are dampening economic activity in the second quarter, largely as anticipated. Recent jobs data show that workers in contact-sensitive sectors have once again been most affected. The employment rate remains well below its pre-pandemic level, with low wage workers, youth and women continuing to bear the brunt of job losses.

With vaccinations proceeding at a faster pace, and provincial containment restrictions on an easing path over the summer, the Canadian economy is expected to rebound strongly, led by consumer spending. Housing market activity is expected to moderate but remain elevated. Strong growth in foreign demand and higher commodity prices should also lead to a solid recovery in exports and business investment. Despite progress on vaccinations, there continues to be uncertainty about the evolution of new COVID-19 variants. More broadly, the risks to the inflation outlook identified in the April MPR remain relevant.

As expected, CPI inflation has risen to around the top of the 1-3 percent inflation-control range, due largely to base-year effects and much stronger gasoline prices. Core measures of inflation have also risen, due primarily to temporary factors and base year effects, but by much less than CPI inflation. While CPI inflation will likely remain near 3 percent through the summer, it is expected to ease later in the year, as base-year effects diminish and excess capacity continues to exert downward pressure.

The Governing Council judges that there remains considerable excess capacity in the Canadian economy, and that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s April projection, this happens sometime in the second half of 2022. The Bank is continuing its QE program to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve. Decisions regarding adjustments to the pace of net bond purchases will be guided by Governing Council’s ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 14, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

Another Weak Canadian Jobs Report For May

Fri, 04 Jun 2021 16:47:13 GMT

Canada’s Jobs Recovery Derailed By Third-Wave Restriction

This morning, Statistics Canada released the May 2021 Labour Force Survey showing another contraction in employment, albeit not as dramatic as in April. With the geographical broadening in lockdown restrictions in May, employment fell by 68,000 (-0.4%), but almost all of the decline was in part-time work.

The number of self-employed workers was virtually unchanged in May but remained 5.0% (-144,000) below its pre-pandemic level.

Among people working part-time in May, almost one-quarter (22.7%) wanted a full-time job, up from 18.5% in February 2020 (not seasonally adjusted).

The number of Canadians working from home held steady at 5.1 million. This is similar to the number of telecommuters in the spring of last year.

After falling in April, total hours worked were little changed in May.

Employment in the goods-producing sector dropped for the first time since April 2020, with decreases in both the manufacturing and construction industries. Ontario and Nova Scotia were the only provinces to register declines in total employment.

Employment increased in Saskatchewan, while there was little change in all other provinces.

Unemployment little changed

The unemployment rate was little changed at 8.2% in May, as the number of people who searched for a job or who were on temporary layoff held steady. The unemployment rate remained lower than the recent peak of 9.4% seen in January 2021 and considerably lower than its peak of 13.7% in May 2020.

The unemployment rate among visible minority Canadians aged 15 to 69 rose 1.5 percentage points to 11.4% in May (not seasonally adjusted).

Long-term unemployment—the number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more—held relatively steady at 478,000 in May.

Full-time employment was little changed in May, following a decline of 129,000 (-0.8%) in April. Before April, full-time employment had steadily trended upwards, following the low in April 2020. In May 2021, the number of full-time workers was down 1.9% (-303,000) from its pre-pandemic level.

Private sector employees in sales and services most affected by restrictions

The number of private-sector employees declined by 60,000 in May (-0.5%), adding to losses observed in April (-204,000; -1.7%). This followed employment gains totalling 427,000 in February and March 2021—demonstrating the extent to which employment for this group of workers has been affected by the easing and tightening public health measures introduced to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.

Compared with February 2020, the number of private-sector employees was down 564,000 (-4.6%), with the gap driven mostly by declines in the number of people working in the accommodation and food services industry, particularly those working in sales and services occupations (not seasonally adjusted).

Employment in construction falls with tightening of public health restrictions in ON

Employment in construction fell by 16,000 (-1.1%) in May, driven by declines in Ontario, where public health restrictions affecting non-essential construction were implemented on April 17. The decrease brought the number of workers in construction down to 3.7% (-55,000) below pre-COVID levels.

Bottom Line

With the easing of COVID restrictions beginning this month, we expect a sharp bounceback in job creation starting in the next employment report. The potential for a sharp rebound and a faster-than-expected full recovery has already prompted the Bank of Canada to start tapering its stimulus with reduced bond buying. Markets are expecting rate hikes by the Bank to begin next year.

Canada’s economy remains 571,100 jobs shy of pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate was below 6% before the pandemic.

The Canadian jobs report coincided with the release of U.S. payroll numbers , which increased by 559,000 last month — short of an expected 675,000–but well above the surprisingly weak job growth in April.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Housing is Driving The Canadian Economy

Thu, 03 Jun 2021 17:26:42 GMT

Housing Drove the Economic Expansion in Q1

Q4 economic growth was much stronger than expected, as was the flash estimate for January '21. This could help explain why interest rates have risen so fast recently and could portend a more optimistic statement from the Bank of Canada next week.

This morning's Stats Canada release showed that the economy grew at a 5.6% annualized rate in the first quarter, after a revised 9.3% pace in the final quarter of last year. That was somewhat below economists' expectations. Housing investment grew at an annualized 43% pace, by far the biggest impetus of the expansion. Residential investment now makes up a record proportion of GDP (see chart below). Compared with the first quarter of 2020, housing investment was up 26.5% and led the recovery. Growth in housing was attributable to an improved job market, higher compensation of employees, and low mortgage rates. After adding $63.6 billion of residential mortgage debt in the last half of 2020, households added $29.6 billion more in the first quarter of 2021.

Residential investment is a component of the Gross Domestic Product accounts and is technically called 'gross fixed capital formation in residential structures' by Statistics Canada. Investment in residential structures is comprised of three components: 1) new construction, 2) renovations and 3) ownership transfer costs. The first two components are obvious.

The home-resale market's contribution to economic activity is reflected in 'ownership transfer costs.' These costs are as follows:

real estate commissions--including realtors and mortgage brokerage fees;
land transfer taxes;
legal costs (fees paid to notaries, surveyors, experts etc.); and
file review costs (inspection and surveying).

The second chart below shows the quarterly percent change in the components of housing investment in inflation-adjusted terms. This chart illustrates the surge in existing home sales since the second quarter of last year (reflected in the red bar). Although the resale market has slowed since the third quarter of last year, it remains a driving force of economic expansion.

Growth in housing investment was broad-based. New construction rose 8.7% (quarter-over-quarter), largely driven by detached units in Ontario and Quebec. Ownership transfer costs increased 13.1%, with the rise in resale activities. Working from home and extra savings from reduced travel heightened the demand for, and scope of, home renovations, which grew 7.0% in the first quarter.

The increase in GDP in the first quarter of 2021 reflected the continued strength of the economy, influenced by favourable mortgage rates, continued government transfers to households and businesses, and an improved labour market. These factors boosted the demand for housing investment while rising input costs heightened construction costs.

The GDP implicit price index, which reflects the overall price of domestically produced goods and services, rose 2.9% in the first quarter, driven by higher prices for construction materials and energy used in Canada and exported. The sharp increase in prices boosted nominal GDP (+4.3%). Compensation of employees rose 2.1%, led by construction and information and cultural industries, and surpassed the pre-pandemic level recorded at the end of 2019.

Strength in oil and gas extraction, manufacturing of petroleum products, and construction industries led to a higher gross operating surplus for non-financial corporations (+11.5%). Higher earnings from commissions and fees bolstered the operating surplus of financial corporations (+3.9%), coinciding with the sizeable increases in the value and volume of stocks traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX).

Most aspects of final sales were solid in Q1, with consumers a bit stronger than expected (2.8% a.r.), government adding (5.8%), and net exports also contributing. In contrast, business investment was one real source of disappointment, with equipment spending surprisingly falling. But the biggest drag came from a drop in inventories , with this factor alone cutting growth 1.4 ppts in Q1, and versus expectations, it could add a touch. The good news is that this should reverse in Q2, supporting activity in the current quarter.

On the monthly figures , there were few big surprises. March's initial flash estimate of +0.9% was nudged up in the official estimate to +1.1% as the economy began to re-open from the second wave. Tougher COVID public health rules slammed the brakes on Canada’s economy in April. Statistics Canada estimates gross domestic product shrank 0.8% in the month, representing the first contraction in a year and a weak handoff heading into the second quarter. April may well be followed by a soft May. Even so, we still expect a strong June will keep Q2 roughly flat overall and look for robust Q3 growth.

Bottom Line
In many respects, Q1 data is ancient history. We know with the resurgence in lockdowns, growth in Q3 will at best be flat. In the hopes that vaccinations will accelerate and Covid case numbers will continue to fall across the country, Q4 will likely see a strong resurgence in growth.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

New Stress Test Qualifications as of June 1st. 2021

Mon, 24 May 2021 18:59:27 GMT

As of June 1st. 2021, if you’re looking to qualify for mortgage financing (either uninsured or insured), you will have to qualify at the greater of the contract rate plus 2% or a new “floor rate” of 5.25%.

A little background.

In early April, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) proposed changes to the stress test for uninsured mortgages and invited feedback from the public closing in early May 2021. Last Thursday, OSFI announced they would be moving ahead with the proposed changes to uninsured mortgages.

Immediately following OSFI’s announcement, the Department of Finance made an announcement indicating that they would follow suit and apply the same changes to the stress test on insured mortgages as well.

“The recent and rapid rise in housing prices is squeezing middle-class Canadians across the entire country and raises concerns about the stability of the overall market,” Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said in a statement. “The federal government will align with OSFI by establishing a new minimum qualifying rate for insured mortgages… It is vitally important that homeownership remains within reach for Canadians.”

What you need to know.

It is estimated that these changes to the stress test will impact 1 in 5 mortgage applications and will reduce buying power by roughly 4% to 4.5%.

The government will review the stress test qualifying rate annually (every December) and communicate any changes well before the spring market.

After June 1st. 2021, you will have to qualify at the great of the contract rate or the floor rate of 5.25%.

If you have an active mortgage or pre-approval in place (before June 1st, 2021), please don’t hesitate to get in touch to see if these recent government changes impact you.

Housing Market Slowed in April as Renewed Lockdown Took Its Toll

Mon, 17 May 2021 22:15:00 GMT

Starting to See A Slowdown In Canadian Housing

Today, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing home sales fell 12.4% nationally from March to April 2021. Over the same period, the number of newly listed properties fell 5.4%, and the MLS Home Price Index rose 2.4%.

While home sales fell month-over-month in April, largely due to the new lockdowns, April sales were still the strongest ever for that month and well above the 10-year monthly average.

Month-over-month declines in sales activity were observed in close to 85% of all local markets, including virtually all of B.C. and Ontario.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes declined by 5.4% in April compared to March. In a market with historically low inventory, where sales activity depends on a steady supply of new listings each month, the synchronous gains in new supply and sales in March followed by synchronous declines in April suggest the slowdown in sales may be partially about the availability of listings as opposed to only a demand story. New listings were down in 70% of all local markets in April.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio eased back to 75.2% in April compared to a peak level of 90.6% back in January. That said, the long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.5%, so it is currently still high historically. The good news is that it is moving in the right direction.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, only about a quarter of all local markets were in balanced market territory in April, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other three-quarters of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.

There were 2 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of April 2021, up from a record-low 1.7 months in March but still well below the long-term average for this measure of a little more than 5 months.

In a separate release, Canadian housing starts fell to 268,600 annualized units in April from the blowout (334.8k) month in March. While down sharply month-over-month, this is still a solid level of new construction activity in Canada by historical standards. In fact, average annualized starts over the past six months run at the strongest level on record, topping building booms in the 1970s and 1980s. All regions but the Prairies and Atlantic Canada saw lower starts in April.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) climbed by 2.4% month-over-month in April 2021 – a historically strong gain but less than in February and March. Most of the recent deceleration in month-over-month price growth has come from the single-family space compared to the more affordable townhome and apartment segments.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 23.1% on a year-over-year basis in April. Based on data back to 2005, this was a record year-over-year increase.

The largest year-over-year gains continue to be posted across Ontario (around 20-50%), followed by markets in B.C., Quebec and New Brunswick (around 10-30%), and lastly by gains in the Prairie provinces and Newfoundland and Labrador (around 5-15%).

The MLS® HPI provides the best way to gauge price trends because averages are strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was slightly under $696,000 in April 2021, up 41.9% from the same month last year. That said, it is important to remember that the national average price dropped by 10% month-over-month last April as the higher-end of every market effectively shut down for a couple of months. That will serve to stretch these year-over-year comparisons over and above what is actually happening to prices until around June.

By segment : Single-detached remains extremely strong, but earlier signs that condo markets in the large cities were tightening up continue to play out. Condo prices were up 8.5% y/y in April, the strongest pace since mid-2018, and price gains are now running even stronger month-to-month in the biggest cities. We continue to expect these markets to come back stronger than most might think.

By region: It’s as close to wall-to-wall strength that we’ve probably ever seen in this country. Long-dormant markets like Calgary and Edmonton are awake again with prices up roughly 9% y/y; Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver remain strong as usual; some smaller markets (think Halifax, Moncton, Southwestern Ontario) are even stronger than the big cities; and cottage country is booming.

Bottom Line

Headlines will probably flag housing market declines in April, but don’t that fool you…this market is still robust across geography and segment, even if we’ve likely seen peak momentum. Activity will likely remain strong this summer, especially if the COVID restrictions are eased, and people begin to get their second vaccine.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Weak April Jobs Report Reflects Canadian Lockdown

Fri, 07 May 2021 17:35:11 GMT

Canada’s Jobs Recovery Impaired by Third-Wave Virus Restrictions

This morning, Statistics Canada released the April 2021 Labour Force Survey showing a major deterioration in the jobs market following the third-wave Covid containment measures. Employment fell by 207,100 (-1.1%) in April, and the unemployment rate rose 0.6 percentage points to 8.1%.

Employment declined in both full-tim e (-129,000; -0.8%) and part-time (-78,000; -2.3%) work. The number of employed people working less than half their usual hours increased by 288,000 (+27.2%).

The number of Canadians working from home grew by 100,000 to 5.1 million.

Total hours worked fell 2.7% in April, driven by declines in educational services, accommodation and food services, and retail trade.

The labour underutilization rate , which captures the full range of available people who want to work, rose 2.3 percentage points to 17.0% in April.

The number of Canadians unemployed for 27 weeks or more–the long-term unemployed–increased to 486,000. This group might well be the most scarred by the pandemic in terms of their job prospects and skill deterioration.

Hardest Hit By Industry Sector

In April, employment fell in several industries directly impacted by public health restrictions, namely retail trade (-84,000); accommodation and food services (-59,000); and information, culture and recreation (-26,000).

Accommodation and food services accounted for more than two-thirds (70.9%) of the overall employment gap (-503,000) compared with February 2020.

Employment increased in public administration (+15,000); professional, scientific and technical services (+15,000); and finance, insurance and real estate (+15,000), three industries where many activities can be performed remotely.

Employment in goods-producing industries was little changed in April.

Fewer people working in Ontario and British Columbia

Following gains over the previous two months, employment in Ontario fell 153,000 (-2.1%) in April.

Employment in British Columbia declined by 43,000 (-1.6%)—the first decrease since substantial employment losses in March and April 2020.

Employment increased in Saskatchewan and New Brunswick, while there was little change in all other provinces.

Bottom Line

The third wave restrictions cut heavily into Canadian employment in April, mostly in line with expectations. However, in contrast to the mild impact on growth from second-wave restrictions, the latest drop may leave more of a mark on the broader economy, with full-time positions also hit this time. On a less downbeat note, the employment-to-population rate remains a full point above January’s level (at 59.6%). The participation rate is also higher than in the second wave at 64.9% (albeit down a bit from the pre-pandemic trend of 65.5%).

Looking ahead, as in prior waves of virus spread, employment will rebound once the government can ease containment measures. And that light at the end of the tunnel is getting closer, with vaccination rates ramping up. In the meantime, government support programs for those losing work remain in place and help put a floor under household purchasing power.

Canada’s economy remains about half a million jobs shy of pre-pandemic levels. The Canadian dollar rose to 82.36 cents US after the report. The yield on Canada’s 5-year bond yield dipped to 0.894%, down a few ticks from Thursday’s close.

The U.S. Labor Department also released soft jobs data Friday that were even more disappointing. U.S. payrolls increased by just 266,000, versus estimates for a 1 million gain.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

What is Bridge Financing?

Thu, 06 May 2021 15:00:02 GMT

Let’s say you have a home that you’ve outgrown, it’s time to make a move to something more suited for your family. You have no desire to keep two houses, so you decide that selling your existing home, and moving into something new is the best idea.

Ideally, when planning out how that looks, most people want to take possession of the new house before having to move out of the old one. Not only does this make moving (your stuff) easier, it allows you to make the house a little more “you” by adding some paint, or doing some small renovations before moving in.

But what if you need the money from the sale of your existing house to come up with the downpayment for your next house? This is where bridge financing comes in. Bridge financing allows you to bridge the financial gap between the firm sale of your current home, and the purchase of your new home. Bridge financing allows you to access some of the equity in your existing property to be used towards the downpayment on the property you are buying.

Now, here is where people get confused, in order to secure bridge financing, you must have a firm sale on your existing house. If your house isn’t sold, you won’t get the bridge financing, because there is no concrete way for a lender to calculate how much equity you have available.

Instead of going through all the fine details of documentation required to apply for bridge financing, or outlining scenarios that may or may not be applicable to you, if you’ve got questions, why don’t you contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime! We’d love to hear from you!

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, But Pares Bond-Buying Program

Wed, 21 Apr 2021 21:54:13 GMT

Bank of Canada Scales Back Bond Buying

Today, the Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. The Bank is also adjusting its bond-buying program from weekly net purchases of Government of Canada (GoC) bonds of $4 billion to $3 billion . This adjustment to the amount of incremental stimulus being added each week reflects the progress made in the economic recovery.

Finally, the Bank now suggests that the remaining slack in the economy could be fully absorbed by the second have of 2022–rather than 2023, suggesting that they may begin raising overnight interest rates before the end of next year. The Bank went on to aver that this timing is more uncertain than usual , however, given the uncertainty around potential output and the highly uneven impacts of the pandemic.

The Bank of Canada now believes that first-quarter growth in Canada is considerably stronger than they were expecting back in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). This partly reflects a better global backdrop, particularly in the United States. The US recovery is supported by a rapid rollout of vaccines and substantial fiscal stimulus, bringing spillover benefits to Canada through higher demand for exports and stronger commodity prices.

“But the most important factor in the unexpected economic strength has been the resilience and adaptability of Canadian households and businesses. Lockdowns through the second wave had much less economic impact than they did through the first wave. The economy bounced back quickly with the eased restrictions posting substantial job gains in February and March. The third wave is a new setback, and we can expect some of these job gains to be reversed. But the performance of the economy in recent months has increased our confidence in the underlying strength in the recovery.”

The Bank went on to say, “With the vaccine rollout progressing, we are expecting strong consumption-led growth in the second half of this year. Fiscal stimulus from the federal and provincial governments will also make an important contribution to growth. Strong growth in foreign demand and higher commodity prices are expected to drive a solid rebound in exports and business investment, leading to a more broad-based recovery. Overall, we now project that the economy will expand by around 6½ percent this year, slowing to about 3¾ percent in 2022 and 3¼ percent in 2023.

Over the next few months, inflation is expected to rise temporarily to around the top of the 1-3 percent inflation-control range. This is largely the result of base-year effects—year-over-year CPI inflation is higher because prices of some goods and services fell sharply at the start of the pandemic. Also, the increase in oil prices since December has driven gasoline prices above their pre-pandemic levels. The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease back toward 2 percent over the second half of 2021 as these base-year effects diminish, and inflation is expected to ease further because of the ongoing drag from excess capacity. As slack is absorbed, inflation should return to 2 percent on a sustained basis sometime in the second half of 2022.

Bank of Canada “Forced” To Taper

When the pandemic first hit, the BoC bought government securities, providing liquidity to assure the full functioning of the market. As liquidity conditions in the Government of Canada (GoC) bond market improved, the primary objective of central bank bond purchases shifted toward a focus on monetary stimulus. The quantitative easing (QE) purchases of bonds continue to put downward pressure on borrowing rates, supporting economic activity. QE also reinforces monetary stimulus provided by the Bank’s forward guidance. This guidance has committed to holding the policy interest rate (the overnight rate) at its effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed, so the inflation target is sustainably achieved.

The Bank’s total ownership of GoC bonds outstanding has increased to about 42 percent. Since March 2020, the Bank has purchased more than 35 percent of total sovereign bonds outstanding, a higher percentage than other central banks (see chart below). Considering the size of Canada’s bond market and its economy, this means that the Bank has provided an extraordinary amount of stimulus. The Bank must continue to taper its purchases to ensure sufficient tradeable GoCs are available for longer-term institutional investors–such as insurance companies and pension funds–that must hold triple-A debt to offset their long-term liabilities.

Bank of Canada Assessment of the Housing Market

In today’s MPR, the Bank of Canada included an assessment of the drivers of the strength in Canadian housing:

Demand has been supported by relatively high disposable incomes and low mortgage rates.
While job losses have risen during the pandemic, they have been concentrated among low-wage earners who tend to rent their homes rather than buy them.
Remote work and more time spent at home have led to stronger demand for larger, single-family homes and housing in suburban and rural areas.
One implication of this shift in demand is a pickup in new housing construction in regions with fewer supply constraints, such as limited availability of land.
Over the past year, the pace of construction has been hampered by containment measures and shortages of materials and skilled workers. These factors are also putting upward pressure on construction costs.
Some potential sellers have been reluctant to show their homes during the pandemic.
Over time, supply is expected to adjust. A large number of building permits have been issued, with a growing share for single-family homes. Housing starts have also risen significantly in recent months, most notably in rural areas.

T he Bank remains concerned about extrapolative expectations leading to overheated price increases and speculative activity (see chart below). They welcome the proposed changes to the Guideline B-20 by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions to help reduce these risks.

Bottom Line

This was a significant BoC announcement, suggesting a turning point in their thinking. The worst of the pandemic is over, the economy has been remarkably resilient, and the Bank can now see the light at the end of the tunnel. That light is now expected in the second half of 2022, rather than 2023. Although the policy rate will remain at its effective lower bound until then, the central bank has already begun to pare back its GoC bond buying.

Some of the Bank’s optimism reflects the comparative strength of the US economy, which is way ahead of Canada’s vaccine distribution.* The spillover effects of that are meaningful in terms of Canadian exports. The fiscal stimulus evident in this week’s federal budget also provides a ballast for the economy. Although an estimated 425,000 people are still insufficiently employed and the third wave containment measures and vaccine rollout are unpredictable, the Bank is more confident now than any time in the past thirteen months that we will attain full-employment by late next year.

*As of April 20, nearly 25% of the US population has been fully vaccinated and 39% have received at least one vaccine. In comparison, as of April 20, only 2.5% of the Canadian population has been fully vaccinated and 25.4% have had one vaccine.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Apr 21st, 2021

Wed, 21 Apr 2021 14:06:57 GMT

Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is sustainably achieved, adjusts quantitative easing program.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

April 21, 2021

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank continues to provide extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate, reinforced and supplemented by the Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program. Effective the week of April 26, weekly net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted to a target of $3 billion. This adjustment to the amount of incremental stimulus being added each week reflects the progress made in the economic recovery.

The outlook has improved for both the global and Canadian economies. Activity has proven more resilient than expected in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the rollout of vaccines is progressing. A number of regions, including Canada, are experiencing a difficult third wave of infections and lockdowns. The more contagious variants of the virus are straining healthcare systems and affecting hard-to-distance activities, and have introduced a new dimension of uncertainty. The recovery remains highly dependent on the evolution of the pandemic and the pace of vaccinations.

Global economic growth is stronger than was forecast in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although the pace varies considerably across countries. After a contraction of 2 ½ percent in 2020, the Bank now projects global GDP to grow by just over 6 ¾ percent in 2021, about 4 percent in 2022, and almost 3 ½ percent in 2023. The recovery in the United States has been particularly strong, owing to fiscal stimulus and rapid vaccine rollouts. The global recovery has lifted commodity prices, including oil, contributing to the strength of the Canadian dollar.

In Canada, growth in the first quarter appears considerably stronger than the Bank’s January forecast, as households and companies adapted to the second wave and associated restrictions. Substantial job gains in February and March boosted employment. However, new lockdowns will pose another setback and the labour market remains difficult for many Canadians, especially low-wage workers, young people and women. As vaccines roll out and the economy reopens, consumption is expected to rebound strongly in the second half of this year and remain robust over the projection. Housing construction and resales are at historic highs, driven by the desire for more living space, low mortgage rates, and limited supply. The Bank will continue to monitor the potential risks associated with the rapid rise in house prices. Meanwhile, strong growth in foreign demand and higher commodity prices are expected to drive a robust recovery in exports and business investment. Additional federal and provincial fiscal stimulus will contribute importantly to growth. The Bank now forecasts real GDP growth of 6 ½ percent in 2021, moderating to around 3 ¾ percent in 2022 and 3 ¼ percent in 2023.

The Bank has revised up its estimate of potential output in light of greater resilience to the pandemic and accelerated digitalization. The virus and lockdowns have had very different impacts across sectors, businesses, and groups of workers, creating an unusual degree of uncertainty about the amount of slack in the economy and how long it will take to be absorbed. To gauge the evolution of slack, the Bank will look at a broad spectrum of indicators, including various measures of labour market conditions.

Over the next few months, inflation is expected to rise temporarily to around the top of the 1-3 percent inflation-control range. This is largely the result of base-year effects—year-over-year CPI inflation is higher because prices of some goods and services fell sharply at the start of the pandemic. In addition, the increase in oil prices since December has driven gasoline prices above their pre-pandemic levels. The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease back toward 2 percent over the second half of 2021 as these base-year effects diminish, and inflation is expected to ease further because of the ongoing drag from excess capacity. As slack is absorbed, inflation should return to 2 per cent on a sustained basis some time in the second half of 2022.

Even as economic prospects improve, the Governing Council judges that there is still considerable excess capacity, and the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. Based on the Bank’s latest projection, this is now expected to happen some time in the second half of 2022. The Bank is continuing its QE program to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve. Decisions regarding further adjustments to the pace of net purchases will be guided by Governing Council’s ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

Information note:

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 9, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on July 14, 2021.

Monetary Policy Report April 2021.

March Existing Home Sales in Canada Hit New Record High As New Listings Surge To Unprecedented Levels

Thu, 15 Apr 2021 20:25:13 GMT

Another record rise in March existing home sales. This time, new listings surge to unprecedented levels, but still not enough to prevent enormous increases in prices.

What is All the Policy Hysteria About?

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing home sales hit another all-time high in March. What was arguably more noteworthy was that new listings hit their highest level on record in seasonally adjusted terms in March. Prices continued to rise as sales dwarfed the new supply.

The number of homes sold across the country rose 5.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 76.2% year-over-year (y-o-y). The 76,259 houses that sold were 14,000 more than the previous monthly sales record set last July. The number of newly listed properties jumped another 7.5% from February to March. Benchmark home prices rose 3.1% from the previous month and were up 20.1% y-o-y.

The month-over-month increase in national sales activity from February to March was broad-based and generally in line with locations where more new listings became available. Sales gains were largest in March in Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Hamilton-Burlington and Ottawa.

“Seeing how many homes were bought and sold in March 2021, one could be forgiven for thinking the market just continues to strengthen, and maybe to some extent it is,” stated Cliff Stevenson, Chair of CREA. "The real issue is not strength in housing markets but imbalance. That demand has been around for months, but with the shortages in supply we have across so much of Canada, a lot of that demand has been pressuring prices. So the big rebound in new supply to start the spring market is the relief valve we need the most to get that demand playing out more on the sales side of things and less on the price side. That said, it will take a lot more than one month of record new listings, but it looks like we may finally be rounding the corner on these extremely unbalanced housing market conditions. It’s great news for frustrated buyers..."

“We spent a lot of time over the last year talking about pent-up demand, but I think now is a good time to talk about pent-up supply, which may be the answer to the question everyone is asking right now,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “2020 was the year that home became everything, so in hindsight it’s not that surprising that so many people who did not have one in which to ride out the pandemic really wanted one, while so many of those who did have a home to hunker down in were not inclined to give it up. Then, it stands to reason that as the uncertainty caused and the danger posed by COVID wind down, some owners who would not sell during a global pandemic will emerge with properties for sale. At the same time, some of the urgency on the demand side could dissipate. We’ll only know in the fullness of time, but March certainly did nothing to disprove the idea. That said, the third wave of COVID-19 could throw a wrench into the works of a potential supply recovery this spring.”

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes climbed a further 7.5% to set a new record in March. With February’s big rebound, new supply is up more than 25% in the last two months.

With the rebound in new supply outpacing recent sales gains, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased back to 80.5% in March compared to a peak level of 90.9% set in January. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.4%, so it is currently still very high historically. The good news is it appears to be moving in the right direction finally.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, less than 20% of all local markets were in balanced market territory in March, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other 80%+ of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above. The first three months of 2021 and the second half of 2020 have seen record numbers of markets in seller’s market territory. For reference, the pre-COVID record of only around 55% of all markets in seller’s territory was set back at the beginning of 2002.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between sales and the supply of listings. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. There were only 1.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of March 2021 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. The long-term average for this measure is a little over five months.

H ome Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) climbed by 3.1% m-o-m in March 2021 – similar to but slightly less than the record gain in February.

While price growth remains the largest in the single-family home space, the pace of those gains decelerated in March while price gains in the more affordable townhome and apartment segments continued to pick up steam. Of the 41 markets now tracked by the index, all but one were up on a m-o-m basis.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 20.1% on a y-o-y basis in March. Based on data back to 2005, this was a record y-o-y increase, surpassing the previous record of 18.6% set back in April 2017.

The largest y-o-y gains continue to be posted across Ontario, followed by markets in B.C., Quebec and New Brunswick, then by single-digit gains in the Prairie provinces and Newfoundland and Labrador.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was a record $716,828 in March 2021, up 31.6% from the same month last year. That said, it is important note that the biggest increase in new supply and thus sales in March was in Greater Vancouver, which raised that market’s share of national activity to its highest level in almost four years.

Detailed home price data by region is reported in the table below.

Bottom Line

The continued strength in the market comes amid a debate in Canada over whether a housing bubble is building and what policymakers should do about it. Last week, Canada’s banking regulator, OSFI, said it is examining whether to set up a new higher minimum benchmark interest rate of 5.25% to determine whether people qualify for uninsured mortgages , and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has said it is looking to impose a tax on foreign, non-resident homeowners . Some economists have argued these steps aren’t enough, though March’s increase in supply may ease some of these concerns.

The simplest explanation for why the housing market has been so strong is the dramatic decline in mortgage rates generated by the Bank of Canada's easing in monetary policy in March 2020 with the onset of the pandemic. The central bank’s policy move did precisely what it was intended to achieve, even though it may now be proving counterproductive. Trying to now halt or temper demand through a myriad of additional complex rules is not only inefficient but also risks unintended consequences.

The dramatic decline in mortgage rates to record low levels boosted the purchasing power of households. Also, many were able to buy further away from expensive cities also easing the burden of home purchases of household expenses. This not only occurred across Canada, but we observed the same phenomenon in many countries around the world. Home price inflation has been greatest the further you go out from city centres.

I agree with Beata Caranci, SVP & Chief Economist of TD Bank when she pointed out that, "Canada already has a number of safety levers in place around household financial risks. In fact, the IMF concluded in January 2020 that Canada’s “macroprudential stance is broadly adequate” and the stance was relatively tight, reflecting the six rounds of tightening mortgage insurance rules by the Department of Finance. Provinces and cities have also enacted measures over the years to discourage speculative activity via taxing vacant properties or upping land transfer taxes."

Buyers are not irrational when they are concerned about being priced out of a home purchase. For the past thirty years, despite all the hype about housing bubbles in cities like Vancouver and Toronto, residential real estate has been a great investment and far less volatile than alternative uses of funds. This has been boosted by Canada's immigration policy which has triggered the strongest population growth among the G7 countries. Property taxes and land transfer taxes are already among the highest in the world and, unlike the US, mortgage payments and property taxes are not tax-deductible.

The bulk of the new housing supply has been in multi-unit housing. The pandemic has highlighted the value of a much-coveted single-family home. That has been reflected in the surge in the prices of such homes, which were still affordable in heretofore untapped markets well beyond the major cities. Why shouldn't today's dual-income households aspire to the same homeownership dreams their parents fulfilled? Even after this boom in housing, which will no doubt slow as the pandemic ends and interest rates return to more normal levels, delinquency rates on outstanding mortgages will remain low. The guardrails put in place by the series of actions since 2016--reducing amortizations, increasing minimum downpayments, and tightening mortgage stress testing requirements--all but guarantee that in the strong economic recovery from the pandemic, credit risks are already sufficiently low.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Blockbuster Canadian Jobs Report for March

Fri, 09 Apr 2021 18:30:30 GMT

Blowout Canadian Job Growth Continued In March

This morning, Statistics Canada released the March 2021 Labour Force Survey showing much stronger-than-expected job growth for the second month in a row, pointing towards a Q1 growth rate of more than 5.5%. This survey reflected labour market conditions during the week of March 14 to 20, when public health restrictions were less restrictive in several provinces than during the prior month.

Employment surged by a whopping 303,100 in March after a gain of 259,200 in February. The jobless rate fell to 7.5%, the lowest since before the pandemic. However, there remain many discouraged workers who are no longer actively looking for jobs but would prefer to be gainfully employed. Many of them might well be mothers who could not afford or find quality daycare or needed to help children with remote learning.

The employment rate–the percentage of the population aged 15 and older that is employed—increased 0.9 percentage points to 60.3%, which was still 1.5 percentage points below the rate seen in February 2020.

Employment gains in March were spread across most provinces, with the largest increases in Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec. Much of the employment increase reflected a continued recovery in industries—including retail trade and accommodation and food services—where employment had fallen in January in response to public health restrictions. Growth in health care and social assistance, educational services, and construction also contributed to the national increase in March.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact the labour market. Compared with February 2020, there were 296,000 (-1.5%) fewer people employed in March 2021 and 247,000 (+30.4%) more people working less than half of their usual hours. The number of workers affected by the COVID-19 economic shutdown peaked at 5.5 million in April 2020, including a drop in employment of 3.0 million and an increase in COVID-related absences from work of 2.5 million.

Among workers who worked at least half their usual hours in March, the number working at locations other than home increased by about 600,000 for the second consecutive month as public health restrictions eased across the country.

While the number of Canadians working from home declined by 200,000 in March, working from home remains an important adaptation to the COVID-19 pandemic. Of the 5.0 million Canadians working from home in March, more than half (2.9 million) were doing so temporarily in response to COVID-19.

Total hours worked rose 2.0% in March, driven by gains in several industries, including educational services, retail trade, and construction. Building on a steady upward trend since April 2020, this brought total hours to within 1.2% of February 2020 levels. Hours worked among the self-employed continued to be much further behind (-7.7%) February 2020 levels, while hours among employees returned to pre-pandemic levels.

The unemployment rate falls to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic

The unemployment rate declined for the second consecutive month, falling 0.7 percentage points to 7.5% in March, the lowest since February 2020. This reflected strong employment growth that exceeded the number of people entering the labour market.

The number of people unemployed fell 148,000 (-8.9%) in March, with the majority (59.0%) of people leaving unemployment becoming employed. Despite sharp reductions in both February and March, the number of people unemployed stood at 1.5 million, up 371,000 (+32.4%) compared with February 2020.

The number of long-term unemployed—people who had been looking for work or on temporary layoff for 27 weeks or more—held steady in March. There were 286,000 (+159.5%) more people in long-term unemployment compared with February 2020. These are the folks that could be permanently scarred by the pandemic and for whom job training may well be helpful.

Bottom Line

While Friday’s jobs report surprised on the upside, there are still concerns around an uneven recovery and the impact of the third-wave shutdown in the economy. As the virus becomes more contagious and lethal, the economic recovery remains at risk, heightened by the vaccine’s very slow rollout. The reduces the importance of this employment report for the Bank of Canada even though it is the last report before the central bank’s April policy decision. No doubt the Bank of Canada will highlight the rising risk of contagion on the economic recovery.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government will release its 2021 budget on April 19 and has already promised an additional spending dose. The Bank of Canada’s next policy decision is on April 21. The Bank will thus maintain the overnight rate at 25 basis points and refrain from tapering quantitative easing.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

OSFI Considers Setting a Minimum Qualifying Rate of 5.25% For Uninsured Mortgages

Thu, 08 Apr 2021 21:07:32 GMT

Banking Regulator Aims To Make It Tougher To Get An Uninsured Mortgage

With several Big-Five bank CEOs calling for regulatory action to slow the red-hot housing market, it didn’t take long for the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), the governor of federally regulated financial institutions, to respond. In a news release issued today, OSFI proposed an increase in uninsured mortgages’ qualifying rate to the higher of the mortgage contract rate plus 200 basis points or 5.25% as a minimum floor.

Based on posted rates of the country’s six largest lenders, the current threshold is at 4.79%. Before the pandemic, the posted rate was widely considered too high relative to much lower contract rates. Remember, Canada’s six largest lenders under OSFI’s jurisdiction set the posted rate each week when they submit to the Bank of Canada the so-called ‘conventional 5-year mortgage rate’. It has increasingly born little relationship to actual contract rates.

OSFI, once again, shows itself to cozy up to the Canadian banking oligopoly. Keep in mind that delinquency rates on the Canadian banks’ mortgage books are very low–both in historical terms and compared with financial institutions in the rest of the world. OSFI couched this proposal in terms of “the importance of sound mortgage underwriting.”

In the release, OSFI said, “The minimum qualifying rate adds a margin of safety that ensures borrowers will have the ability to make mortgage payments in the event of a change in circumstances, such as the reduction of income or a rise in mortgage interest rates. As mortgages are one of the largest exposures that most banks carry, ensuring that borrowers can repay their loans strongly contributes to the continued safety and soundness of Canada’s financial system.”

The comment period ends on May 7. OSFI reported that they would communicate the revised B-20 Guideline by May 24, with an implementation date of June 1, 2021.

This all but ensures that the current boom in home buying will accelerate further in the spring market–providing an impetus for borrowers to get in under the June 1 deadline. OSFI’s move will trigger an even hotter spring housing market as demand is pulled forward just as it was before the January 1, 2018 implementation date of the current B-20 ruling.

This will not impact non-federally regulated FI’s such as credit unions, mono-lines and private lenders, nor does it immediately impact insured-mortgage borrowers.

The federal government is in charge of mortgage qualification for insured mortgages. CMHC and the finance department could well follow OSFI’s lead in tightening qualifying rules for insured loans.

Bottom Line

It is noteworthy to remember that on January 24, 2020, OSFI indicated that it was reviewing the benchmark rate (or floor) used for qualifying uninsured mortgages. At that time, the thought was that the widening gap between the posted rate and the contract mortgage rate was too large and that OSFI and the Bank of Canada would publish a mortgage rate weekly that would better reflect the contract rates. The new qualifying rate would be that contract mortgage rate plus 200 basis points. This consultation was suspended on March 13, 2020 , in response to challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Why The Property Matters

Thu, 01 Apr 2021 15:03:14 GMT

When looking to qualify for a mortgage, typically a lender will want to review four main areas of your mortgage application. Income, credit, downpayment/equity and the property itself. Assuming you have a great job, excellent credit, and sufficient money in the bank to qualify for a mortgage, if the property you’re looking to purchase isn’t in good condition, it’s going to be hard to arrange mortgage financing.

Property matters because the property you are looking to purchase is the collateral the lender holds in case you default on your mortgage.

You can expect that any lender will make every effort to ensure that any property they finance is without defect. Lenders want to see that a property is what is called “prime and marketable”. In the rare case that you happen to default on your mortgage, they want to know that if they have to repossess, they can liquidate (sell off) the property quickly and recoup their money.

So to establish value, an appraisal is always required on every purchase. Now, if your mortgage is insured through an insurer like CMHC or Genworth, they will have used an automated system to appraise the property (you might not even have known an appraisal was done). For conventional mortgage applications, a physical appraisal; where an actual appraiser goes to the property, is required. Typically your broker will order this, and you will be responsible for the cost. the appraiser is not only assessing the property’s value, but rather looking at the bones of the property itself. This is where problems can arise.

Why is this important to know? Well, because a lot of people believe that because they have a great job, excellent credit, and money in the bank, they should be able to buy anything they like. Without understanding that the property matters, some people have gone as far as to put in an offer to purchase without a condition of financing. And have lost their deposit, because the lender wasn’t satisfied with the state of the property and didn’t give them a mortgage.

You don’t want to be in this position. So remember, when looking at the overall mortgage application, the property should be considered, because the property matters!

If you have any questions; about a particular property or anything else, please don’t hesitate to Please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Minimum Required Credit Profile

Mon, 22 Mar 2021 18:05:35 GMT

Credit. The ability of a customer to obtain goods or services before payment, based on the trust that payment will be made in the future. When you borrow money to buy a house, you will be required to prove that you have a good history of managing your credit. But what exactly is a “good history of managing credit”? What are lenders looking at when they assess your credit report?

An easy way to remember the minimum requirements for credit is the 2/2/2 rule. 2 active trade lines for a minimum of 2 years, with a minimum of a $2000 limit.

Two active trade lines. You receive a trade line on your credit report anytime a lender extends you credit. This could be a credit card, an instalment loan, or a line of credit. Your repayment history is kept on your credit report. In order for a trade line to be considered active, you must use it at least once every three months.

Two years. Both your trade lines have to be established for at least two years. This gives the lender confidence that you have established your credit over a decent period of time.

Two thousand dollars. This is the bare minimum limit required on your trade lines. So if you have a credit card with a $1000 limit and a line of credit with a $2500 limit, you would be okay as your limit would be $3500. Sometimes people confuse the limit with the balance. You don’t have to carry a balance on your trade lines for them to be considered active. In fact, it’s best if you use your trade lines, but pay them off in full every month.

A great way to use your credit is to pay your bills via direct withdrawal from your credit card, then setup a regular transfer from your bank account to pay off the credit card in full. Automation becomes your best friend. Just make sure you check that everything is working as it should every once and awhile.

Now, although this all may seem pretty straightforward, there are a lot of situations where people assume they will qualify with a minimum required credit profile, when in fact they don’t. It could be a simple fix, or it could require a lot of time. So, if you are thinking about buying a house in the next couple of years, and want to make sure that your credit profile will be established by the time you are ready to shop, please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime and we can work through your mortgage application.

Canadian Housing Market Still On Fire

Tue, 16 Mar 2021 15:52:39 GMT

Housing Continued to Surge in February

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national home sales hit another all-time high in February 2021. Canadian home sales increased a whopping 6.6% month-on-month (m-o-m), building on the largest winter housing boom in history. On a year-over-year (y-o-y) basis, existing home sales surged an amazing 39.2%. As the chart below shows, February’s activity blew out all previous records for the month.The seasonally adjusted activity was running at an annualized pace of 783,636 units in February. CREA’s revised forecast for 2021 is in the neighbourhood of 700,000 home sales. Strong demand notwithstanding, sales may be hard-pressed to maintain current activity levels in the traditionally busier spring months absent a surge of much-needed new supply. However, that could materialize as current COVID restrictions are increasingly eased and the weather starts to improve.

T he month-over-month increase in national sales activity from January to February was led by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and several other Ontario markets, along with Calgary and some markets in B.C. These offset a considerable decline in Montreal’s sales, where new listings have started 2021 at lower levels compared to those recorded in the second half of last year.

In line with heightened activity since last summer, it was a new record for February by a considerable margin (over 13,000 transactions). For the eighth straight month, sales activity was up in the vast majority of Canadian housing markets compared to the same month the previous year. Among the eight markets that posted year-over-year sales declines in February, minimal supply at the moment is the most likely explanation.

“We are right at the start of the first undisturbed (by policy or lockdown) spring housing market in years, and we also have the most extreme demand-supply imbalance ever by a large margin. So, the question is, what is going on? I think part of it is the demand that built up due to regulatory changes in the years leading up to COVID that is playing out now. Part of it is the demand that is being pulled forward from the future either in search of a home base to ride out the pandemic or to lock down a purchase amid rapidly rising prices while securing a record low mortgage rate,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “But maybe the biggest factor here is the emergence of existing owners with major equity, prompted by the great shake-up that is COVID-19 to pull up stakes and move. First-time buyers, which we have a lot of, are now having to compete with that as well.”

New Listings
The number of newly listed homes rebounded by 15.7% in February, recovering all the ground lost to the drop recorded in January. With sales-to-new listings ratios historically elevated at the moment, indicating almost everything that becomes available is selling, it was not surprising that many of the markets where new supply bounced back in February were the same markets where sales increased that month.

W ith the rebound in new supply outpacing the gain in sales in February, the national sales-to-new listings ratio came off the boil slightly to reach 84% compared to the record 91.2% posted in January. That said, the February reading came in as the second-highest on record. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.4%.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, only about 15% of all local markets were in balanced market territory in February, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other 85% of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above. The first two months of 2021 and the second half of 2020 have seen record numbers of markets in seller’s market territory. For reference, the pre-COVID record of only around 55% of all markets in seller’s territory was set back at the beginning of 2002.

There were only 1.8 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of February 2021 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. The long-term average for this measure is a little over five months. At the local market level, some 40 Ontario markets were under one month of inventory at the end of February.

Home Prices
The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) jumped by 3.3% m-o-m in February 2021 – a record-setting increase. Of the 40 markets now tracked by the index, all but one were up on a m-o-m basis.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 17.3% on a y-o-y basis in February – the biggest gain since April 2017 and close to the highest on record.

The largest y-o-y gains – above 35% range – were recorded in the Lakelands region of Ontario cottage country, Tillsonburg District and Woodstock-Ingersoll.

Y-o-y price increases in the 30-35% were seen in Barrie, Niagara, Bancroft and Area, Grey-Bruce Owen Sound, Kawartha Lakes, London & St. Thomas, North Bay, Northumberland Hills, Quinte & District, Simcoe & District and Southern Georgian Bay.

This was followed by y-o-y price gains in the range of 25-30% in Hamilton, Guelph, Cambridge, Brantford, Huron Perth, Kitchener-Waterloo, Peterborough and the Kawarthas and Greater Moncton.

Prices were up in the range from 20-25% compared to last February in Oakville-Milton and Ottawa, 18.8% in Montreal, 16.1% in Chilliwack, in the 10-15% range on Vancouver Island, the Fraser Valley and Okanagan Valley, Winnipeg, the GTA, Mississauga and Quebec, the 5-10% range in Greater Vancouver, Victoria, Regina and Saskatoon, in the 3.5% range in Calgary and Edmonton, and 2.6% in St. John’s.

Detailed home price data by region is reported in the table below.

Bottom Line

W e all know why the housing boom is happening:

Employment in higher-paying industries has actually risen despite the pandemic, supporting incomes among potential homebuyers.
Mortgage rates plumbed record lows and, while they’re backing up now, they’re still below pre-COVID levels, while many buyers are likely still on pre-approvals with rates locked in.
There’s been a dramatic shift in preferences toward more space, further outside major urban centres (commuting requirements are down and probably assumed to remain down).
Limited travel has created historic demand for second (recreational) properties, and households have equity in existing properties to tap.
Younger households are likely pulling forward moves that would have otherwise happened in the years ahead.
There has to be some FOMO and speculative activity in the market at this point. In January, 6% of all houses listed for sale in Toronto’s suburbs had been bought in the previous 12 months, up from 4% a year earlier, according to brokerage Realosophy.

On the flip side, there is precious little supply to meet that demand, at least in segments that the market wants.

In a separate release, Canadian housing starts pulled back to 245,900 annualized units in February, a still-high level following a near-record print in the prior month. This is not a winter wonder. Starts on a twelve-month average basis are running at 227k annualized, the strongest such pace since 2008, and over the past six months, starts are averaging 242k, the highest since at least 1990. Both single- and multi-unit starts declined in the month, as did all provinces but British Columbia.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Roaring Canadian Jobs Market Signals Economic Rebound

Mon, 15 Mar 2021 15:00:35 GMT

Easing Restrictions Ignite Canadian Job Market In February

This morning, Statistics Canada released the February 2021 Labour Force Survey showing much stronger-than-expected job growth. The early days of the latest easing in COVID restrictions reinvigorated the labour market. Economists were pleasantly surprised by the rapid rebound. To be sure, there remain risks to the outlook, a rise in virus cases because of the prevalence of the new variants, but the resilience of the Canadian economy is notable.

E mployment rose by 259,200 (1.4%) in February, after falling by 266,000 in the prior two months, nearly reversing the effects of the second pandemic wave. The jobless rate fell a whopping 1.2 percentage points to 8.2%, the lowest rate since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020.

Employment gains in February were concentrated in Quebec and Ontario. Most of the gains in these provinces reflected a rebound in industries—particularly retail trade and accommodation and food services–that had been hardest hit by the lockdowns. Broadly, February’s employment increases were concentrated in lower-waged work. These high-contact service sectors remain among the hardest hit during the crisis (see chart below).

February marked one year of unprecedented pandemic-related changes in the Canadian labour market. Compared with 12 months earlier, there were 599,000 (-3.1%) fewer people employed in February, and 406,000 (+50.0%) more people working less than half of their usual hours. The number of workers affected by the COVID-19 economic shutdown peaked at 5.5 million in April 2020, including a drop in employment of 3.0 million and an increase in COVID-related absences from work of 2.5 million. Since the pandemic began one year ago, there remain over 1 million Canadians who have suffered a loss of employment income.

Pandemic-related changes to the labour market have disproportionately affected young women, particularly teenagers. Compared with February 2020, employment losses among women aged 15 to 24 (-181,000; -14.1%) accounted for nearly one-third (30.2%) of the decline in total employment.

Reflecting a rebound in employment following two months of declines, the number of people on temporary layoff fell by 103,000 (-28.6%) in February. The number of long-term unemployed—those who had been looking for work or been on temporary layoff for 27 weeks or more—fell by 49,000 (-9.7%) from a record high of 512,000 in January.

The number of people who wanted a job but were not actively looking for one and therefore did not meet the definition of unemployed decreased by 33,000 (-5.7%) in February. Had people in this group been included in the unemployment count, the adjusted unemployment rate in February would have been 10.7% (down 1.3 percentage points from January).

COVID-19 has widened income inequality in Canada, as well as in the rest of the world. By far, the lowest income workers have been hardest hit by the pandemic. We have seen net job gains over the past year for higher-income workers. The following chart sheds light on why the housing market is so strong.

The jobless rate plunged everywhere except Atlantic Canada.

Bottom Line

While Friday’s jobs report surprised on the upside, there are still concerns around an uneven recovery with most of the job losses since last year concentrated in three industries — accommodation and food services, culture and recreation and ‘other services, including personal care. The March employment report may take on even greater importance for the Bank of Canada since it will be the last set of jobs data before the central bank’s April policy decision. Accelerating vaccinations after a slow start would keep the hiring momentum going.

Another strong jobs report combined with recent data showing surprisingly strong growth in Q4 and Q1 economic activity could set the BoC on the road to tapering its bond-buying.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Bank Of Canada Holds Policy Rate at 0.25% and Maintains QE Program At Current Pace

Wed, 10 Mar 2021 23:19:54 GMT

Bank of Canada Holds Rates and Bond-Buying Steady

Much has changed since the Bank of Canada’s last decision on January 20. While the second pandemic wave was raging, new lockdowns were implemented in late 2020, and there were fears that the economy, in consequence, was likely to grow at a 4.8% annual rate in Q4 and contract in Q1. Instead, the lockdowns were less disruptive than feared, as Q4 growth came in at a surprisingly strong 9.6% annual rate–double the pace expected by the Bank.

R ather than a contraction in Q1 this year, Statistics Canada’s flash estimate for January growth was 0.5% (not annualized). Strength in January came from housing, resources and government spending, and the mild weather likely helped. In today’s decision statement, the central bank acknowledged that “the economy is proving to be more resilient than anticipated to the second wave of the virus and the associated containment measures.” The BoC now expects the economy to grow in the first quarter. “Consumers and businesses are adapting to containment measures, and housing market activity has been much stronger than expected. Improving foreign demand and higher commodity prices have also brightened the prospects for exports and business investment.”

A massive $1.9 trillion stimulus plan in the US is also about to turbocharge Canada’s largest trading partner’s economy, which will be a huge boon to the global economy and explains why commodity prices and bond yields have risen substantially in recent months. The Canadian dollar has been relatively stable against the US dollar but has appreciated against most other currencies.

Economists now expect Canada to expand at a 5.5% pace this year versus a 4% projection by the Bank of Canada in January. Going into today’s meeting, no one expected the Bank to raise the overnight policy rate, but markets were pricing in more than a 50% chance of an increase by this time next year, up from about 25% odds in January.

On the other hand, the BoC continued to emphasize the risks to the outlook and the huge degree of slack in the economy. “The labour market is a long way from recovery, with employment still well below pre-COVID levels. Low-wage workers, young people and women have borne the brunt of the job losses. The spread of more transmissible variants of the virus poses the largest downside risk to activity, as localized outbreaks and restrictions could restrain growth and add choppiness to the recovery.”

The Bank also attributed the recent rise in inflation was due to temporary factors. One year ago, many prices fell with the onslaught of the pandemic, so that year-over-year comparisons will rise for a while because of these base-year effects combined with higher gasoline prices pushed up by the recent run-up in oil prices. The Governing Council expects CPI inflation to moderate as these effects dissipate and excess capacity continues to exert downward pressure.

According to the policy statement, “While economic prospects have improved, the Governing Council judges that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s January projection, this does not happen until 2023.” The Bank will continue its QE program to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve until the recovery is well underway. As the Governing Council continues to gain confidence in the recovery’s strength, the pace of net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted as required. The central bank will “continue to provide the appropriate monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.”

Bottom Line

The Bank gave no indication when it might start to taper its bond-buying. The next decision date is on April 21, when a full economic forecast will be released in the April Monetary Policy Report. Governor Macklem is more dovish than many had expected and will err on the side of caution. When the central bank starts tapering its asset purchases, it will be the equivalent of easing off the accelerator rather than applying the brakes. The Bank of Canada has been buying a minimum of $4 billion in federal government bonds each week to help keep borrowing costs low. That pace may no longer be warranted with an outlook that appears to show the economy absorbing all excess slack by next year, ahead of the Bank of Canada’s 2023 timeline for closing the so-called output gap.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement | March 10th 2021

Wed, 10 Mar 2021 15:11:25 GMT

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program, which continues at its current pace of at least $4 billion per week.

The global economy is recovering from the economic effects of COVID-19, albeit with ongoing unevenness across regions and sectors. The US economic recovery appears to be gaining momentum as virus infections decline and fiscal support boosts incomes and consumption. New fiscal stimulus will increase US consumption and output growth further. Global yield curves have steepened, largely reflecting the improved US growth outlook, but global financial conditions remain highly accommodative. Oil and other commodity prices have risen. The Canadian dollar has been relatively stable against the US dollar, but has appreciated against most other currencies.

In Canada, the economy is proving to be more resilient than anticipated to the second wave of the virus and the associated containment measures. Although activity in hard-to-distance sectors continues to be held back, recent data point to continued recovery in the rest of the economy. GDP grew 9.6% in the final quarter of 2020, led by strong inventory accumulation. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021 is now expected to be positive, rather than the contraction forecast in January. Consumers and businesses are adapting to containment measures, and housing market activity has been much stronger than expected. Improving foreign demand and higher commodity prices have also brightened the prospects for exports and business investment.

Despite the stronger near-term outlook, there is still considerable economic slack and a great deal of uncertainty about the evolution of the virus and the path of economic growth. The labour market is a long way from recovery, with employment still well below pre-COVID levels. Low-wage workers, young people and women have borne the brunt of the job losses. The spread of more transmissible variants of the virus poses the largest downside risk to activity, as localized outbreaks and restrictions could restrain growth and add choppiness to the recovery.

CPI inflation is near the bottom of the 1-3 percent target band but is likely to move temporarily to around the top of the band in the next few months. The expected rise in CPI inflation reflects base-year effects from deep price declines in some goods and services at the outset of the crisis a year ago, combined with higher gasoline prices pushed up by the recent run-up in oil prices. CPI inflation is then expected to moderate as base-year effects dissipate and excess capacity continues to exert downward pressure. Measures of core inflation currently range from 1.3 to 2 percent.

While economic prospects have improved, the Governing Council judges that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s January projection, this does not happen until into 2023. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank will continue its QE program until the recovery is well underway. As the Governing Council continues to gain confidence in the strength of the recovery, the pace of net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted as required. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 21, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

How Can I Pay Down My Mortgage Faster?

Thu, 04 Mar 2021 16:00:03 GMT

Although getting a mortgage is exciting as it allows you to become a homeowner, a mortgage is, in fact, a lot of debt. So if you have a mortgage, your goal should be to get rid of it as quickly as possible.

Here are four things you can do to help pay off your mortgage for good!

Accelerate your payments.

A traditional mortgage splits the amount owing to 12 equal monthly payments. Accelerated biweekly is simply taking a regular monthly payment and dividing it in two, but instead of making 24 payments, you make 26. The extra two payments really accelerate the pay down of your mortgage.

Increase your regular mortgage payments.

Chances are you have the ability to increase your regular mortgage payment by 10-25%. This is a great option if you have some extra cash flow to spend in your budget. This money will go directly towards paying down the principal amount owing on your mortgage and isn’t a prepayment of interest.

Make a lump sum payment.

Depending on your lender and your mortgage product, you should be able to put down anywhere from 10-25% of the original mortgage balance. Some lenders are particular about when you can make these payments, however, if you haven’t taken advantage of a lump sum payment yet this year, you should be eligible.

Review your options regularly.

As your mortgage payments are withdrawn from your account on a set schedule, it’s easy to put your mortgage payments on auto-pilot, especially if you have opted for a longer term. This is why an annual review is a good idea, there may be opportunities to refinance and lower your interest rate.

The point of reviewing your mortgage annually is that you are conscious about making decisions regarding your mortgage and that you ensure you’ve always got the best mortgage for you!

Questions about your mortgage, or want to compare your mortgage to what is currently available? Please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Canadian Economy Ended 2020 On An Extremely Upbeat Note

Wed, 03 Mar 2021 00:45:32 GMT

Strong Canadian Economic Growth in Q4 and January

This morning’s Stats Canada release showed that economic growth in the final quarter of last year was a surprisingly strong 9.6% (annualized). The surge in growth in January was even more interesting, estimated at a 0.5% (not annualized) pace. If these numbers pan out, it means that Canada did not suffer a contraction during the second wave and ensuing lockdown.

The January figure is noteworthy in that retail sales plunged as nonessential stores were closed in key parts of the country as we faced surging numbers of COVID cases. The strength came from resources, housing and government spending and the mild weather likely helped.

At its last meeting in January, the Bank of Canada (BoC) estimated that Q4 growth would come in at 4.8% (half the actual 9.6% pace) and that there would be a net contraction in Q1 of this year. The strength in Q4 emanated from very hot housing, some business investment in machinery, government outlays and a resurgence in inventory accumulation. Inventory build-up is often seen as a negative sign reflecting weak consumer spending. But maybe firms were preparing for a considerable rebound in demand.

Economists on Bay Street are upwardly revising their growth forecasts for this year, and no doubt the BoC will do so again when it meets next Wednesday. Clearly, the economy has been more resilient than expected. Will that change the Bank’s assessment of the continued need for monetary stimulus? Probably not. But it will likely temper their view that the next rate hike will not be until 2023, a sentiment the BoC has asserted regularly in the past.

Consumer spending was weak at the end of last year, not surprisingly given many stores were closed and a stay-at-home order was in place in several highly populated areas. Households have been hoarding cash. The savings rate declined to 12.7% in Q4 from as high as 27.8% earlier in the year, but that is still way above normal. Accumulated savings will provide a backstop for robust consumer spending once the economy opens up.

For all of 2020, the Canadian economy contracted by 5.4%–a substantially harder hit than in the US, which posted a 3.5% decline.

Bottom Line

The stronger-than-expected economy raises the potential that there is enough stimulus in the economy. The Trudeau government appears to be determined to hike government spending meaningfully in the next federal budget (likely coming this Spring). We know it is the government’s predilection to juice the economy for another couple of years, but that could well deserve a rethink.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Are Mortgage Rates Really Going Up?

Tue, 02 Mar 2021 23:06:00 GMT

With all the economic uncertainty caused by a global pandemic, unprecedented unemployment levels, and government stimulus, mortgage rates have been on a steady decline for almost a year. In fact, we’ve hit some historic lows along the way.

Now, despite the Bank of Canada committing to keeping interest rates low into 2023, if you’ve been listening to the media in the last couple of weeks, you may have heard that interest rates are currently on the rise. But if the government is working to keep rates low, it doesn’t make sense for them to be going up? Well, the key here is to compare apples to apples.

The Bank of Canada controls the overnight rate target, impacting the prime rate, which impacts variable-rate mortgages. In contrast, fixed-rate mortgages get their cue from the bond market.

So while variable rates haven’t moved, the bond market has seen a lot of action, which has caused an increase in fixed-rate mortgages. Since February 5th, Canadian bond yields have surged by almost 0.60%, bringing us to record 12-month highs. In the last 2 weeks alone, we’ve seen rate increases of 0.10% to 0.30% on certain fixed mortgage terms.

So what does this mean for you?

Firstly, make sure you have perspective. There isn’t an emergency here, no need to act rashly. While we’ve seen an increase in fixed-rate mortgages by up to 0.30%, we’re still in a very low rate environment. Two years ago, fixed rates were over 3%, while you can still find terms under 2% today. That’s a huge drop.

Just because fixed-rate mortgages have gone up doesn’t mean you’ll qualify for any less of a mortgage. As the government uses a qualifying rate to stress test your mortgage, the actual contract rate isn’t used to qualify your mortgage.

So, if you’re looking to buy a property in the next little while, interest rates are still very low. It’s a great time to get a rate hold and pre-approval. Let’s talk! At the same time, if your existing mortgage is up for renewal soon or you’d like to refinance to access some equity, interest rates are still very low, historically speaking, we should evaluate all your options. Again, let’s talk!

Regardless of your situation, if you would like a little more clarity on how increasing rates impact you, or if you’d like to discuss mortgage financing, please reach out and contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!. We would love to work with you!

Interest Rates & Commodity Prices Surge On Economic Rebound Optimism

Fri, 26 Feb 2021 20:36:34 GMT

Canadian 5-Year Bond Yield Surges

In an unprecedented move, bond yields are spiking around the world. Yields globally are now at levels last seen before the coronavirus spread worldwide. At the same time, commodity prices are surging, including energy, metals and minerals, agricultural products and lumber. The Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package is has triggered fears that if the US economy returns to full employment too quickly, inflation might be the result.

Central banks have attempted to soothe markets, with European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane saying the institution can buy bonds flexibly. Fed Chair Jerome Powell called the recent run-up in yields “a statement of confidence” in the economic outlook. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem told us earlier this week that it’s a long road to recovery for the Canadian economy. The Bank of Canada will continue to provide support every step of the way. Many Bay Street economists took this to mean that he reinforced the BoC’s commitment to keeping the policy rate at its effective lower bound of 25 bps until sometime in 2023.

These global developments have sideswiped Canada. On Tuesday, I warned that the 5-year government bond yield had risen 27 bps to 0.69% since the beginning of this month, shown in the first chart below. This morning, the rise has become exponential, hitting 1.00%, shown in the second chart.

Keep in mind that Canada’s economy has considerable slack with unemployment rising in recent months and the lockdown continuing for at least a couple more weeks in the GTA. Moreover, Canada has fallen far behind other countries in the vaccine rollout. But there is no denying that pent-up demand in Canada is high. Not only have home sales been breaking records, but auto sales and anything housing-related–such as Home Depot earning growth–have skyrocketed.

Savings rates are high, and the big banks have reported a surge in deposit growth as consumers squirrel away those savings. Remember, the Roaring Twenties was a response to the 1918 Pandemic, more than anything else.

The CRB commodity price index, shown below, is on a tear, and the gains are in every sector except gold and orange juice. That means that new home construction costs are also rising, as home sales remain well above listings.

Bottom Line

It’s time to lock-in mortgage rates. For those in the market, preapprovals are prudent. Rising rates will likely trigger more housing activity in the near-term as those thinking of buying might move off the sidelines, pushing prices higher over the first half of this year.

The surge in interest rates would undoubtedly stall or reverse if we see a third wave of new variant COVID cases in advance of a full rollout of the vaccines in Canada. However, there is enough monetary and fiscal stimulus in global markets, and oil prices are expected to continue to rally sufficiently that an ultimate rise in interest rates cannot be far off. This is indicated by the loonie moving to a near a 3-year high.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Mortgage Financing in a Competitive Housing Market.

Thu, 25 Feb 2021 16:00:02 GMT

Canada is an interesting place to buy a property right now. If you’ve paid attention to the media at all over the last few weeks, you’ve probably heard that…

Many people are still out of work due to COVID-19.
The bank of Canada has forecasted rates will stay low for a long time.
Although house prices keep rising, we may be in for a housing crash sooner than later.

While more recently, the media is reporting that…

Canadian house prices are hitting record highs with no stop in sight.
There is very little inventory available in housing markets across Canada.
This week, bond rates have started to rise, and we can likely expect lenders to follow with an increase in fixed rates.

Needless to say, things can change pretty quickly. And while talking about the “Canadian housing market” is a lot like talking about the “weather in Canada”; it varies regionally and will be significantly different depending on where you live, one thing seems to be true, if you’re looking to buy a property, you can expect a competitive housing market.

Some markets will be hotter than others, but buying a home in a competitive housing market can be difficult.

You know you’re in a hot housing market when…

Properties sell within days of listing on MLS.
Properties are selling at or above the asking price.
Properties are selling with competing offers.
Properties are selling with competing offers well over the asking price.

Unfortunately, this can make you feel…

Rushed to make decisions out of your comfort zone.
Like you are being priced out of the market.
Like you won’t ever find a property.
Like you may need to change up your strategy to prevent being outbid by competing offers.

Now, if you get to this point in your home buying journey, you might begin to feel desperate. Understandably so. You might even look for ways to get your offer accepted and consider taking risks you wouldn't otherwise take. You may even consider (or be encouraged to) submit a subject-free offer.

While writing a subject-free offer might seem like a good solution to get your offer accepted, you need to know that it comes with significant risk. The biggest risk you take is that your deposit could be forfeit if you write an unconditional offer and your financing is declined.

The only time a subject-free offer is without risk is when you have enough money to purchase the property with the cash you have in the bank. So if you don’t have the cash to buy the house outright, the smart move is to mitigate your risk by including a “subject to financing” clause in the offer to purchase.

Mortgage financing is never guaranteed. The reason mortgage financing isn’t guaranteed is that securing mortgage financing is not only dependent on you the applicant, but also on the condition and value of the property. So even if you have the most stable income, an incredible credit history, and a large downpayment, if you need a mortgage, all lenders will assess the property’s condition and value before agreeing to mortgage financing.

Their scrutiny of the property is the same regardless of whether you include a subject to financing clause or make your offer unconditional.

Unfortunately, if you’re in a competitive situation, this is where you have to make quick decisions and put your best offer forward, but this is also when you’re at the highest risk of making mistakes. There are many reasons a lender can decline your mortgage application; here are just a few of them.

The property doesn’t appraise for what you offer, forcing you to come up with considerably more for a downpayment. This is especially true in competitive situations.
The MLS listing contains compromising information.
The property was a former grow op or drug lab.
The property has a special assessment pending.
The condo insurance docs aren’t acceptable to the lender.
The property doesn’t meet zoning or size requirements.
The lender finds out there is asbestos, aluminum or knob and tube wiring, or an underground oil tank.
Or anything else they deem too risky to lend money.

So what can you do? Well, the best place to start is to make sure you have all your ducks in a row. Here are things to consider.

Do you have a mortgage preapproval in place?
Do you have all the supporting documents submitted to your mortgage professional
Are you working with a mortgage professional who has outlined the process, including how long they need to arrange financing?
Do you have rock-solid personal guidelines for making an offer? This will help you to avoid making an emotional last-minute decision.
Are you working with a real estate professional who is willing to help you stick to those personal guidelines?

Securing mortgage financing in a competitive housing market is tough. So if you find yourself without a concrete plan, please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime! We deal with high-stress situations like this regularly, and we would love to provide you with the counsel you need.

Market Interest Rates Are Rising Almost Everywhere

Wed, 24 Feb 2021 00:02:36 GMT

Longer-Term Yields are Rising Despite Central Bank Inaction

While central banks hold overnight rates at record lows, anchoring short-term interest rates and the prime rate, mid-to-long-term government yields have been rising since early this month. As the chart below shows, the 5-year Government of Canada bond, upon which mortgage rates are generally tethered, are currently at 0.69%, up 27 basis points since January 29th. This is the highest 5-year yield since late-March 2020. Canadian bond yields have increased more than in the US, perhaps due to the surge in commodity prices, most notably oil, which has climbed 16.9% in just the past month, taking the year-to-date gain to 27%.

Growing government debt arising from fiscal measures to cushion the blow of the pandemic and stimulate the economy has set the stage for higher government bond yields in much of the developed world.

Inflation concerns are mounting. In a rare move, yesterday Statistics Canada revised up its estimate of core inflation–unveiled only five days ago–from 1.5% to 1.77%. The result is an inflation picture that is more elevated than reported last week, at a time when investors are becoming more worried about global price pressures. The core CPI is the Bank of Canada’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, and it has rattled markets that it now appears to be running at nearly a 1.8% year-over-year pace.

While inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months on higher energy costs, policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem see little immediate threat from rising prices, even with extraordinary levels of stimulus coursing through the economy. Despite a temporary pickup early this year, the Bank of Canada doesn’t anticipate inflation will sustainably return to its 2% target until 2023. Macklem speaks in Calgary later today, and he is likely to suggest that the Canadian economy is still far from an inflationary threshold.

The biggest vaccination campaign in history is currently underway. More than 209 million doses have been administered across 92 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg News. The latest pace was roughly 6.24 million doses a day. Israel has administered more than 82 doses of vaccine per 100 people, the UK is at 27.5, and the US is at 19.3. Canada, on the other hand, has administered only 4.1 doses per 100 people, now ranking 43rd in the world (see chart below).

This slow start to the rollout likely portends a longer period of economic underperformance.

Bottom Line

S ome upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates might be in store, although the Big Five Banks have yet to respond, and the qualifying rate remains at 4.79%, well above contract rates. Without any prospect of near-term tightening by the Bank of Canada, variable rate mortgage rates–typically tied to the prime rate–will remain stable. But mortgage rates have moved up at some of the non-bank lenders. No question, the economy’s trajectory and interest rates will be linked to the return to the ‘new normal’ following the pandemic. Good news on the pandemic front inevitably means higher mortgage rates in 2022-23–if not sooner.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Planning Ahead, A Guide to Mortgage Documentation

Fri, 19 Feb 2021 16:00:02 GMT

It doesn’t matter if you are looking to purchase your first home, your next home, or your twentieth home; typically the mortgage documentation required to secure financing will be the same. The earlier on in the process you can collect these documents, and provide them to your broker, the better.

So here we go, here is a list of the most common documents that will be required to secure mortgage financing.

INCOME VERIFICATION

Letter of Employment – Written on company letterhead with a current date, your letter of employment should have your name, start date, position, and list whether you are full or part-time. It should also indicate your salary or the minimum guaranteed hours/week & hourly rate. The letter should be signed with the best contact information to allow for a verbal confirmation.

Pay Stub or Direct Deposit Form – This will confirm your income, and should match what is written on the letter of employment.

T4 Slips – Typically your last two years T4s should work.

Notice of Assessments – Your previous two years of NOAs will help to establish your annual income. We will be looking at your line 150.

Financial Statements – If you happen to be self-employed, having three years of financial statements or T1 Generals will be required.

DOWN PAYMENT VERIFICATION

Bank Statements – 90 days of bank statements are required to show that you have had the downpayment in your possession or have accumulated the funds through payroll deposits. You will want to make sure that your name and account number appear on the statements.

Gift Letter – If all or part of the downpayment is coming by way of a gift, you will have to provide a letter signed by you and the person gifting the money. The amount written on the gift letter will have to be deposited to your bank and substantiated on the bank statements.

RRSP Statements – If part of your downpayment is coming by way of RRSP, you will be required to provide a 90-day history from your RRSP account. If you are using the Home Buyers Plan, there will be an additional form to complete.

Agreement of Purchase and Sale – If your downpayment is coming by way of a sale of another property, the contract indicating the sale price, and your current mortgage statement will prove the equity to be used for the downpayment.

PROPERTY DETAILS

MLS Listing – If you are purchasing a property through a Realtor, please have a copy of the MLS listing so we can verify the property details.

Purchase and Sales Agreement – If you already have an accepted offer, please provide a copy of the purchase and sales agreement including all amendments and counteroffers.

Survey – If you have one, send it along, if not, no worries.

Property Tax Assessment – If you don’t have a copy of the most recent property tax assessment, one can usually be found on the local municipality/city website. The most recent assessment will be required.

OTHER DOCUMENTATION

Solicitor or Notary Information – Please provide the name of your lawyer/notary, the firm, and their contact information.

Mortgage Statement – If you are doing a mortgage refinance, please provide a copy of your current mortgage statement.

VOID Bank Cheque – This is the account that your mortgage payments will be withdrawn from. A pre-authorized debit form works just as well.

As each mortgage is different, the documentation to satisfy each mortgage will vary somewhat. This list is a great place to start, but please know that more documentation may be required depending on your specific financial situation.

If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Canadian Home Sales Hit An All-Time Record High In January

Wed, 17 Feb 2021 20:10:27 GMT

Housing Continued to Surge in January

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national home sales hit another all-time high in January 2021. Canadian home sales increased 2.0% month-on-month (m-o-m) building on December’s 7.0% gain. On a year-over-year (y-o-y) basis, existing home sales surged 35.2%. As the chart below shows, January activity blew out all previous records for the month.

The seasonally adjusted activity was running at an annualized pace of 736,452 units in January, significantly above CREA’s current 2021 forecast for 583,635 home sales this year. Sales will be hard-pressed to maintain current activity levels in the busier months to come, absent a surge of much-needed new supply; However, that could materialize as current COVID-19 restrictions are increasingly eased and the weather starts to improve.

A mixed bag of gains led to the month-over-month increase in national sales activity from December to January, including Edmonton, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), and Chilliwack B.C., Calgary, Montreal and Winnipeg. There was more of a pattern to the declines in January. Many of those were in Ontario markets, following predictions that sales in that part of the country might dip to start the year with so little inventory currently available and many of this year’s sellers likely to remain on the sidelines until spring.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity posted a 35.2% y-o-y gain in January. In line with activity since last summer, it was a new record for January by a considerable margin. For the seventh straight month, sales activity was up in almost all Canadian housing markets compared to the same month the previous year. Among the 11 markets that posted year-over-year sales declines, nine were in Ontario, where supply is extremely limited at the moment.

CREA Chair Costa Poulopoulos said, “The two big challenges facing housing markets this year are the same ones we were facing last year – COVID and a lack of supply. It’s looking like our collective efforts to bring those COVID cases down over the last month and a half are working. With luck, some potential sellers who balked at wading into the market last year will feel more comfortable listing this year.”

New Listings

The dearth of new listings continues to be the biggest problem in the housing market. As we move into the spring market and continue to see fewer COVID cases, the likelihood is that new supply will emerge. But for now, the number of newly listed homes plunged 13.3% in January, led by double-digit declines in the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, London and St. Thomas, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec and Halifax Dartmouth.

With sales edging higher and new supply falling considerably in January, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 90.7% – the highest level on record for the measure by a significant margin. The previous monthly record was 81.5%, set 19 years ago. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.3%.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, only about 20% of all local markets were in balanced market territory in January, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other 80% were above long-term norms, in many cases well above. This was a record for the number of markets in seller’s market territory.

There were only 1.9 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2021 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, some 35 Ontario markets were under one month of inventory at the end of January.

Low available supply is the reason property values will continue to go up. Strong demand pre-pandemic and the historic market rally since summer have cleaned up inventories in many parts of the country. Relative to the 10-year average, active listings had plummeted between 50% and 61% in Ontario, Quebec and most of Atlantic Canada, and 29% in BC by the late stages of 2020. And that’s despite a surge in downtown condo listings since spring in Canada’s largest cities. With so few options to choose from (outside downtown condos), buyers will continue to compete fiercely. Buyers in the Prairie Provinces, and Newfoundland and Labrador, however, will feel less pressure to outbid each other given supply isn’t quite as scarce in these markets.

Home Prices

Viewed from another angle, sellers enter 2021 holding a powerful hand when setting prices in most of Canada. We see this continuing during most of 2021. We expect provincial sales-to-new listings ratios—a reliable gauge of price pressure—to generally stay above the threshold (0.60) where sellers have historically yielded more pricing power. In several cases (including BC, Ontario and Quebec), ratios are well above the threshold, providing plenty of buffer against demand-supply conditions flipping in favour of buyers.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose by 1.9% m-o-m in January 2021. Of the 40 markets now tracked by the index, prices were up on a m-o-m basis in 36.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 13.5% on a y-o-y basis in January – the biggest gain since June 2017.

The largest y-o-y gains – above 30% – were recorded in the Lakelands region of Ontario cottage country, Northumberland Hills, Quinte & District, Tillsonburg District and Woodstock-Ingersoll.

Y-o-y price increases in the 25-30% range were seen in Barrie, Niagara, Grey-Bruce Owen Sound, Huron Perth, Kawartha Lakes, London & St. Thomas, North Bay, Simcoe & District and Southern Georgian Bay.

Y-o-y price gains followed this in the range of 20-25% in Hamilton, Guelph, Oakville-Milton, Bancroft and Area, Brantford, Cambridge, Kitchener-Waterloo, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, Ottawa and Greater Moncton.

Prices were up 16.6% compared to last January in Montreal. Meanwhile, y-o-y price gains were in the 10-15% range on Vancouver Island, Chilliwack, the Okanagan Valley, Winnipeg, the GTA and Mississauga. Prices rose in the 5-10% range in Victoria, Greater Vancouver, Regina and Saskatoon. Home prices were up 2% and 2.2% in Calgary and Edmonton, respectively.

Bottom Line

The rollercoaster that was 2020 left Canada’s housing market more or less where it started the year: full of bidding wars, escalating prices and exasperated buyers unable to find a home they can afford. The pandemic changed some dynamics—it drove many buyers to the suburbs, exurbs and beyond, ground immigration to a virtual halt, triggered a downturn in big cities’ rental markets and caused households to build up their savings—but it didn’t dial down the market’s heat.

The marked shift in housing strength from urban centres–Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal–to perimeter cities is ongoing. For example, Toronto’s prices are up ‘only’ 11.9% y-o-y, but Barrie (+27%) and London (26%) have far outpaced these gains.

Condo price growth has slowed to just 3.1% y-o-y, or a record 14.3 percentage points below the price gains in single-detached homes. That’s by far the widest gap in 20 years and reflects the hunt for space and social distancing.

Housing starts (reported yesterday by CMHC) surged to 282,428 annualized units in January, the second-highest monthly posting since 1990. This figure could be distorted upward by the unseasonably mild January weather in much of the country. But the new high in starts is in line with record sales and solid building permits.

For policymakers, it doesn’t appear that there’s much interest in leaning against a sector that is helping to prop up the economy, especially with years of tightening mortgage rules already in place.

T here appears to be little on the horizon to stop sales or prices from reaching new heights in 2021. Yet, cooling signs will emerge as the year progresses, which will come into fuller view next year. The foremost restraining factors will be a rise in new listings, waning pandemic-induced market churn, a modest creep-up in interest rates and an erosion of affordability. Call it a 2022 soft landing.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Using your RRSP for a downpayment through the HBP.

Tue, 16 Feb 2021 19:09:48 GMT

As the March 1st, 2021 RRSP deadline approaches for the 2020 tax season, if you have money saved for a downpayment but you’re not quite ready to buy a home, here’s a little strategy that might interest you. Did you know that you can use the money saved in an RRSP as a downpayment? It’s called the Home Buyers’ Plan, or HBP for short.

Instead of keeping your downpayment tucked away in a savings account or TFSA, consider using your savings to purchase an RRSP before this year’s RRSP deadline. This will lower your taxable earnings for 2020 and trigger a (bigger) tax refund or lessen the amount of tax you have outstanding. You can then use the money saved towards your goal of homeownership. Admittedly, this won’t play a huge role in building a downpayment, but in times like these, every bit counts!

So here are some of the criteria for using the Home Buyers’ Plan.

You must be considered a first-time homebuyer to use the HBP. This means you have either never bought a home previously, or, in the last four-year period, you did not occupy a home that you or your current spouse or common-law partner owned.

You have 15 years to pay back the RRSP with payments starting in the second year after the withdrawal. While you won’t pay any tax on the money withdrawn from your RRSP for the downpayment, you will have to pay back the total amount you withdrew over 15 years. The CRA will send you an HBP Statement of Account every year, and your repayments will not count as new RRSP contributions as you’ve already received the tax break from those funds.

Funds have to be in your RRSP for at least 90 days to be eligible for use in the HBP. This is a rule not many people are aware of, but it’s pretty important. So if you decide to purchase an RRSP with your savings to be used as part of your downpayment for withdrawal through the HBP, you need to wait at least 90 days before buying a home to make everything work. If you decide to buy a home before the 90 days is up, the RRSP purchase can still be withdrawn, but it will negate the tax savings.

You can access up to $35,000 ($70,00 per couple) from your RRSP account to be used as a downpayment through the HBP. The government increased the accessible amount in 2019.

You can learn more about the Home Buyers' Plan by checking out the CRA website here . Or, if you’d like to discuss how the HBP could work for you and your personal financial situation, contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Canadian Employment Falls to Lowest Level Since August

Fri, 05 Feb 2021 21:52:56 GMT

Extended Lockdowns Batter Jobs Market

This morning, Statistics Canada released the January 2021 Labour Force Survey showing the negative economic impact of extended lockdowns in Ontario and Quebec. The closing of all in-person dining, nonessential retail, recreational facilities and personal care services in these provinces and Alberta and Manitoba took its toll on the labour markets.

Employment fell by 212,800 (-1.2%) in January, much weaker than generally expected. Losses were entirely in part-time work–full-time jobs actually rose 12,600–and were concentrated in the Quebec and Ontario retail trade sectors. As a result, hours worked somehow managed to rise 0.9% in the month.

Friday’s report wipes out months of gains, leaving employment about 4.5% shy of February 2020 pre-COVID levels.

The decline in January followed a revised 52,700 drop (-0.3%) in December and brought employment to its lowest level since August 2020.

Once again, job losses were heavily concentrated in retail and wholesale trade and hotels and restaurants. It is worth noting that 8 of the 16 industrial sectors saw job gains last month.

The unemployment rate rose 0.6 percentage points to 9.4%, the highest rate since August. That unemployment rate is now 3.7 ppts above the pre-COVID level, while the U.S. rate of 6.3% is 2.8 ppts higher over that period. This second consecutive monthly increase brought the unemployment rate to its highest level since August 2020. The number of long-term unemployed (people who have been looking for work or have been on temporary layoff for 27 weeks or more) remained at a record high (512,000)—a reminder that as unemployment has increased in recent months, many people affected by the initial COVID-19 economic shutdown have yet to return to work.

Still, Canada’s labour market is faring better now than it did during the first wave of restrictions in March and April when employment fell by 3 million.

By April 2020–one month into the pandemic–5.5 million workers had been directly affected by the initial widespread COVID-19 economic shutdown, which resulted in a drop in employment of 3.0 million and an increase in COVID-related absences from work of 2.5 million. In January, the equivalent number of affected workers was 1.4 million, including a decrease in employment of 858,000 and a COVID-related increase in absences of 529,000.

Once again, declines in employment occurred mostly among youth and women in the core working age of 25 to 54. These groups also recorded large decreases in part-time employment during the initial downturn in March and April 2020, reflecting that they are more likely to work part-time in industries directly affected by COVID-19 public health measures, including retail trade, and accommodation and food services.

Some industries with a high proportion of full-time employment—including professional, scientific, and technical services; finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing—have recovered to pre-COVID employment levels in recent months and were unchanged in January.

Among Canadians who worked at least half their usual hours, the number working from home increased by nearly 700,000 to 5.4 million in January, surpassing the previous high of 5.1 million in April during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Average hourly wages bounced up again to 6.2% y/y, but that strength is due to the loss of lower-paying jobs in the retail and restaurant industries.

The employment losses were entirely in the two provinces that had the toughest restrictions—Ontario and Quebec—as jobs rose in 7 of the 10 provinces. The table below shows the jobless rate fell in Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Manitoba, PEI and Saskatchewan.

Bottom Line

With the decline in COVID cases in recent weeks, there is some hope that restrictions will be eased. Quebec has already announced it will start to loosen some restrictions on gyms, restaurants and bars in the coming days, and Ontario is on pace to reopen more schools . However, public health officials warn that new variants of the virus remain a risk and urge for continued lockdowns.

There is no question that the bright light at the end of the very dark pandemic tunnel is a widely distributed vaccine. On that score, Canada is faring badly. The Biden administration is working hard to step-up vaccine distribution, but Canada apparently placed its vaccine orders well after the US and UK. Production issues have harshly slowed Canada’s supply of vaccines. While the US and UK have already broadened distribution to all people aged 65 and over, Canada hasn’t even finished vaccinating health care workers and long-term care residents. Reports suggest that significantly more supply will not be forthcoming until April.

The chart below describes the Canadian vaccine rollout. We now rank 34th in the world in terms of total vaccination doses administered per 100 people.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Planning Ahead to Get the Best Terms on Renewal!

Wed, 03 Feb 2021 04:03:25 GMT

If your mortgage term is almost up for renewal, there’s a good chance you’ll be pleasantly surprised with the low-interest rates available on the market today. While the pandemic has caused a lot of economic uncertainty, the result has been very low interest rates. In fact, the Government of Canada has indicated that rates will most likely stay low until 2023.

So if your mortgage is up for renewal in the next 6 months, here’s what you should do.

Start now. Yep, right now.

Getting ahead of your renewal is one of the most important things you can do. This will ensure that you don’t get busy, forget about the deadline, and have to make a rush decision. Or worse yet, your mortgage won't renew into a product you didn’t choose for yourself. You’ll want to weigh your options and make the best choice for you. This can take time. So start now.

One of the benefits of reviewing your renewal with an independent mortgage professional is saving hours of research. We deal with mortgage financing daily; our job is to keep up with all the lenders and their products and provide you with professional advice.

Please connect with us to discuss your renewal. We’d be more than happy to outline all your options.

Don’t sign your lender’s renewal offer.

If you’ve already received a renewal letter from your current lender, the last thing you want to do is just select the term with the lowest rate, sign it, and send it back. You have more options than this.

Renewal documents will showcase rates and products that are good for the lender, not necessarily for you. Mortgage lenders are in the business of making money, and as close to half of people sign their initial renewal offer without negotiating a better rate, lenders don’t feel they have to put their best offer forward. In fact, they make more money by doing the exact opposite.

Just because your current lender was the best choice when you got your last mortgage doesn't mean they're still the best choice now. Make sure to consider all your options, not just the options in front of you. Let’s talk.

Don’t get stuck on the rate.

Modern consumerism has us conditioned to believe that the lowest price is always the best. And although this might be the case when buying stuff at the thrift store, it certainly isn’t when considering mortgage financing. Interest rate is only one thing you should consider when renewing your mortgage.

Your goal should be to assess the quality of your next term by how much it lowers your overall cost of borrowing. Life is full of changes; you’ll want to ensure the features of your mortgage, such as term length, mortgage type, penalties, portability, and prepayment privileges, all line up with your goals. The lowest rate mortgage doesn’t always come with the most flexible terms. And sometimes, it makes sense to take a higher rate for better terms. Professional advice will help a lot as you make your decision.

So there you have it. If your mortgage is up for renewal anytime in the next six months, please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts directly! Let's work together to secure the best mortgage for you.

6 Reasons to Refinance your Mortgage

Tue, 26 Jan 2021 20:51:49 GMT

Is now a good time to refinance your mortgage? Well, maybe! Interest rates are very low right now, and according to the bank of Canada, they will most likely remain low until at least 2023. So while everyone has different reasons to access their home equity, to a maximum of 80% of the property value, here are 6 reasons refinancing your mortgage might make sense to you.

Your mortgage is up for renewal anyway.

If your mortgage is up for renewal and you’re looking at a new term anyway, this is the perfect time to consider adding money to the balance outstanding as there won’t be a cost to break your existing mortgage. Breaking your mortgage mid-term will incur a penalty. Waiting until your term is up won’t.

It lowers your overall cost of borrowing.

The goal with any mortgage is to pay the least amount of money back to the lender as possible. When considering your mortgage options at the outset, this might mean taking the mortgage with the lowest rate, while it might also mean paying a little higher rate in favour of more flexible terms. It’s all about calculating the best option for you at that time.

When considering a refinance, it’s very similar. You should consider breaking your term anytime and paying the penalty if the terms on the new mortgage can save you more money in the coming years.

These aren’t calculations you can easily make on your own. However, in talking with an independent mortgage professional, you should be able to clearly assess if breaking your current mortgage will save you money in the long run.

To consolidate all your debts into one payment.

Life happens. Sometimes a financial reset is in order. If you have high-interest unsecured debt that is eating up your cash flow, bringing everything into one low payment secured by your mortgage could be a great option for you. Not only does this option give you breathing room in your daily life, but it will also help to protect your credit score if you are at risk of missing payments.

Debt restructuring is probably one of the most common reasons people refinance their mortgages.

To increase the value of your home.

Home renovations can be expensive. Saving up to renovate properly can take a long time. The idea of using your home equity to pay for renovations upfront, especially ones that increase the overall value of your home, can make a lot of financial sense.

Also, with more Canadians working from home due to the changes brought about by COVID-19, adding a home office or finishing a basement to increase the livable space in your home might be a great reason to refinance.

To build wealth through investing in property.

Purchasing a rental property can be a great way to build long term wealth. Although there can be some hassle involved in dealing with renters, having a tenant cover the mortgage cost as the property appreciates can be profitable long term.

Depending on your situation, purchasing a condo for your kids while they attend school is another option to invest in property. And while a vacation home might cost you financially, it can be considered a solid investment in your lifestyle.

If you have significant equity, consider a refinance of your existing property to come up with the funds or downpayment require to purchase another property.

Because you can do whatever you want with your money.

The equity you’ve built up in your home is money you have. However, to access that money, you'll either have to sell your home or borrow against it. And as it’s cold in Canada in the winter, having a home to live in is a good idea. So, if you’re looking to refinance your mortgage to access your equity, do it for whatever reason you like.

Maybe you want to start a new business, maybe you want to help a family member through hard times, maybe you want to help your kids pay for their education, or maybe you want to buy a Harley. The truth is, it doesn’t really matter what you do with the money, as long as you pay the lender back what you borrowed plus the interest.

Of course, with that said, some reasons to refinance might be a little bit better than others, but you can weigh the financial cost accordingly. However, as rates are really low right now, depending on the terms of your existing mortgage, a refinance might make sense.

If you’d like to talk about what a refinance looks like given your existing mortgage and financial situation, let’s do a cost/benefit analysis together. Please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Bank of Canada Expects to Hold Overnight Rates Steady Until 2023

Wed, 20 Jan 2021 23:18:56 GMT

The Bank of Canada, this morning, released its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), showing they expect to keep overnight interest rates at its “effective lower bound” of 0.25% until 2023 (see chart below). To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank will continue its Quantitative Easing (QE) program–buying $4 billion of Government of Canada bonds every week until the recovery is well underway. The central bank indicated it could pare purchases once the recovery regains its footing.

According to the Bank’s press release, “The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our projection, this does not happen until into 2023.” Officials are apparently optimistic about the economy’s prospects once the vaccine is sufficiently distributed and injected. There is no indication that they are planning additional measures to ease monetary policy.

This is particularly noteworthy for two reasons: 1) some economists had been speculating that the Bank would lower the overnight rate by 10-to-15 basis points to help mitigate the impact of continued and broadening lockdowns; and, 2) others thought the early development of the vaccine would trigger sufficient growth to warrant a rate hike in 2022. In the Bank’s current view, neither is likely to be the case. Why mess with a minute cut in already record-low interest rates when mortgage lending is still strong? The slow rollout of the vaccine and the mounting second wave of cases assure weak economic activity in Canada at least until the second half of this year.

As well, inflation remains surprisingly muted. In a separate release today, Stats Canada revealed that price pressures in Canada unexpectedly slowed in December as the country endured a new wave of lockdowns. After climbing to the highest since the pandemic in November, the latest reading shows price pressures are still well below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. That’s consistent with the view from policymakers that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

The pandemic’s second wave has hit Canada very hard, and the vaccine rollout has been disappointing (see chart below). Today’s MPR predicts that the economy will contract in the first quarter of this year. Economic weakness could be exacerbated by the Canadian dollar’s strength, which moved to above 79 cents US following today’s BoC announcement. Ten-year yields edged up modestly as well.

Bottom Line

For the year as a whole, economic growth is expected to be around 4% in 2021, compared to a contraction of -5.5% last year. As the inoculated population grows, the Bank forecasts an acceleration in growth to just under 5% in 2022 and a more-normal 2.5% in 2023. According to the January MPR, “The medium-term outlook is stronger than in the October Report because of vaccines’ positive effects, greater fiscal stimulus, stronger foreign demand and higher commodity prices. Meanwhile, potential output has also been revised up, reflecting an improved projection for business investment and less scarring effects on businesses and workers. There is considerable uncertainty around the medium-term outlook for GDP and the path for potential output. Thus, while the output gap is expected to close in 2023, the timing is particularly uncertain.”

Concerning housing activity, the report said, “Demand for housing has continued to show resilience, despite increasing case numbers and tightening restrictions. Housing activity should remain elevated into the start of 2021, supported by low borrowing rates and resilient disposable incomes. Changes in homebuyers’ preferences have also played a role. For example, price growth has been strongest for single-family homes and in areas outside city centers,” shown in the chart below.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 20th, 2021

Wed, 20 Jan 2021 16:34:24 GMT

Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, continues quantitative easing.

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program, which continues at its current pace of at least $4 billion per week.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to take a severe human and economic toll in Canada and around the world. The earlier-than anticipated arrival of effective vaccines will save lives and livelihoods, and has reduced uncertainty from extreme levels. Nevertheless, uncertainty is still elevated, and the outlook remains highly conditional on the path of the virus and the timeline for the effective rollout of vaccines.

The economic recovery has been interrupted in many countries as new waves of COVID-19 infections force governments to re-impose containment measures. However, the arrival of effective vaccines combined with further fiscal and monetary policy support have boosted the medium-term outlook for growth. In its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank projects global growth to average just over 5 percent per year in 2021 and 2022, before slowing to just under 4 percent in 2023. Global financial markets and commodity prices have reacted positively to improving economic prospects. A broad-based decline in the US exchange rate combined with stronger commodity prices have led to a further appreciation of the Canadian dollar.

Canada’s economy had strong momentum through to late 2020, but the resurgence of cases and the reintroduction of lockdown measures are a serious setback. Growth in the first quarter of 2021 is now expected to be negative. Assuming restrictions are lifted later in the first quarter, the Bank expects a strong second-quarter rebound. Consumption is forecast to gain strength as parts of the economy reopen and confidence improves, and exports and business investment will be buoyed by rising foreign demand. Beyond the near term, the outlook for Canada is now stronger and more secure than in the October projection, thanks to earlier-than-expected availability of vaccines and significant ongoing policy stimulus. After a decline in real GDP of 5 ½ percent in 2020, the Bank projects the economy will grow by 4 percent in 2021, almost 5 percent in 2022, and around 2 ½ percent in 2023.

CPI inflation has risen to the low end of the Bank’s 1-3 percent target range in recent months, while measures of core inflation are still below 2 percent. CPI inflation is forecast to rise temporarily to around 2 percent in the first half of the year, as the base-year effects of price declines at the pandemic’s outset — mostly gasoline — dissipate. Excess supply is expected to weigh on inflation throughout the projection period. As it is absorbed, inflation is expected to return sustainably to the 2 percent target in 2023.

In view of the weakness of near-term growth and the protracted nature of the recovery, the Canadian economy will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our projection, this does not happen until into 2023. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank will continue its QE program until the recovery is well underway. As the Governing Council gains confidence in the strength of the recovery, the pace of net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted as required. We remain committed to providing the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 10, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on April 21, 2021.

As announced, starting with this decision the target for the overnight rate will take effect on the business day following each rate announcement.

Here is a copy of the latest monetary policy report for January, 2021.

This article was originally published on the Bank of Canada's website on January 20th, 2021.

Record December Canadian Housing Market Caps Record Year

Fri, 15 Jan 2021 19:35:31 GMT

2020 Was a Blockbuster Year for Housing

Despite the fears leading into the pandemic last Spring, 2020 marked a record number of home resales as new listings lagged and prices climbed. December housing data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today shows national home sales surged 7.2% month-over-month (m-o-m) at a time of the year when housing is normally slow. The chart below shows that resales were impressively above their 10-year average. The seasonally adjusted activity was running at an annualized 714,516-unit pace in December 2020 – the first time on record that monthly sales (at seasonally adjusted annual rates) have ever topped the 700,000 mark. It was a new record for December by a margin of more than 12,000 transactions. For the sixth straight month, sales activity was up in almost all Canadian housing markets compared to the same month in 2019.

The increase in national sales activity from November to December was driven by gains of more than 20% in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Greater Vancouver.

On a year-over-year basis (y-o-y), activity rocketed upward by 47.2% as interest rates hit record lows, housing needs changed owing to the pandemic, and supply was insufficient to meet demand. The housing boom occurred despite the fall in population growth, reflecting the dearth of new immigration. The yearly change in population growth in Canada nosedived in 2020 after climbing powerfully in the prior four years. Despite this headwind, for 2020 as a whole, 551,392 homes traded hands over Canadian MLS® Systems – a new annual record. This is an increase of 12.6% from 2019 and stood 2.3% above the previous record set in 2016.

New Listings

“The stat to watch in 2021 will be new listings, particularly in the spring – how many existing owners will put their homes up for sale?” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “We already have record-setting sales, but we know demand is much stronger than those numbers suggest because we see can see it impacting prices. On New Year’s Day, there were fewer than 100,000 residential listings on all Canadian MLS® Systems, the lowest ever based on records going back three decades. Compare that to five years ago, when there was a quarter of a million listings available for sale. So we have record-high demand and record-low supply to start the year. How that plays out in the sales and price data will depend on how many homes become available to buy in the months ahead. Ideally, we’d like for households to be able to find and acquire the homes that best suit their needs and for housing to remain affordable, but the fact is we’re facing a major supply problem in 2021.”

The number of newly listed homes climbed by 3.4% in December, led by more new listings in the GTA and B.C. Lower Mainland, the same parts of Canada that saw the biggest sales gains in December.

With sales up by more than new supply in December, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 77.4% – among the highest levels on record for the measure. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.2%.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, only about 30% of all local markets were in balanced market territory in December, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other 70% of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.

There were just 2.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of December 2020 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, 29 Ontario markets were under one month of inventory at the end of December.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose by 1.5% m-o-m in December 2020. Of the 40 markets now tracked by the index, only one was down between November and December.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 13% on a y-o-y basis in December – the biggest gain since June 2017 (see chart below).

Home price activity largely reflected the desire of home purchasers to move away from city centres to a greener, less-expensive suburbs and exurbs now that telecommuting appears to be a sustainable option, at least part-time.

The largest y-o-y gains – above 30% – were recorded in Quinte & District, Simcoe & District, Woodstock-Ingersoll and the Lakelands region of the Ontario cottage country (see the table below for details).

Y-o-y price increases in the 25-30% range were seen in Bancroft and Area, Grey Bruce Owen Sound, Kawartha Lakes, North Bay, Northumberland Hills and Tillsonburg District.

This was followed by y-o-y price gains in the range of 20-25% in Barrie, Hamilton, Niagara, Brantford, Cambridge, Huron Perth, Kitchener-Waterloo, London & St. Thomas, Southern Georgian Bay and Ottawa.

Prices were up in the 15-20% range compared to last December in Oakville-Milton, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, Montreal and Greater Moncton.

Meanwhile, y-o-y price gains were in the 10-15% range in the GTA and Mississauga, Quebec City, and the 5-10% range across B.C., and in Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg and St. John’s NL.

Alberta still lagged owing to the still-negative oil market scene, where home prices were up only 1.5% and 2.7% in Calgary and Edmonton, respectively.

The MLS® HPI provides the best way to gauge price trends because averages are strongly distorted by changes in sales activity mix from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was a record $607,280 in December 2020, up 17.1% from the same month last year.

Bottom Line

Housing strength is largely attributable to record-low mortgage rates and strong demand for more spacious accommodation by households that have maintained their income level during the pandemic. The hardest-hit households are low-wage earners in the accommodation, food services, non-essential retail and tourism-related sectors. These are the folks that can least afford it and typically are not homeowners.

We end 2020 with the national average home price up 17.1%–a dramatic surge rather than the 9-18% decline forecast by CMHC last March. Moreover, 2021 is likely to be another strong year for housing. It would not surprise me if annual sales reached a new high in 2021, especially in the first half of the year. There will, however, be cooling signs as the year progresses and especially into 2022. Firstly, supply constraints are a major factor as new listings remain low relative to demand. As well, the pandemic-induced changes in housing needs will have a waning effect over time. As vaccine injections rise across the country and we return to a new normal, interest rates will creep up moderately. This along with higher home prices will slow the pace of activity as affordability erodes.

There will be mitigating factors in 2022: the number of new immigrants is slated to rise to roughly 500,000 that year and demand for short-term Airbnb rentals will rise sharply as tourism revives.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Canadian Jobs Market Tanked in December

Fri, 08 Jan 2021 18:31:56 GMT

Canadian employment fell 62,600 last month, a bit weaker than expected, following seven months of recovery (see chart below). The rapid rise in COVID cases and the ensuing lockdown measures in many key regions caused the net loss in jobs in the mid-December survey. Especially hard hit were workers at restaurants and hotels who suffered a hefty 56,700 employment loss.

The jobless rate rose a tick to 8.6%--well below the peak of 13.7% in April--but still three percentage points above its pre-pandemic level.

However, there were some bright spots as several sectors churned out small gains (see second chart below). Among them were finance, insurance and real estate, as well as scientific and tech services. Manufacturing rose 15,400, and public administration reported solid gains.

On a positive note, full-time jobs actually rose 36,500, and average wages pushed back up and are now 5.6% higher than one year ago. This outsized gain, in part, reflects the loss in so many low-wage jobs.

Part-time jobs were down sharply in December, led by losses among workers aged 24 and under and those aged 55 and older. Also, the number of self-employed workers fell by 62,000, its lowest point since the pandemic began.

The December loss of jobs left employment down 571,600 (or -3.0%) from year-ago levels, the deepest annual decline since 1982--but far better than the April reading of -15% y/y. The 2020 job loss in Canada of -3.0% is also a relatively mild downturn compared to today's US job market release for December, which reported a -6.2% y/y drop in employment. In Canada, the 332,300 y/y loss in accommodation and food services employment alone accounted for 58% of our annual job loss.

Employment was down in nine out of ten provinces last month. The lucky exception was British Columbia. None of the provinces stood out on the low side. The table below shows the unemployment rate by province. Jobless rates rise and fall with labour force participation rates. You are not considered unemployed if you are not seeking work. The number of people counted as either employed or unemployed dropped by 42,000 (-0.2%) in December, the first significant decline since April. Core-aged women and young males were largely responsible for the fall.

Bottom Line

It certainly doesn't appear that the lockdowns will be lifted anytime soon. We keep hitting new records in the number of Covid cases, and the more contagious Covid variant is upon us. What's more, the rollout of the vaccine has been disturbingly slow. So until winter is behind us, there is unlikely to be a meaningful opening of the economy. All things considered, Canada's economy has been relatively resilient. That's not surprising given the government income support--the most generous in the G7 countries. Moreover, financial conditions are extremely accommodative.

Although no one is coming through the pandemic unscathed, most of the employment losses have been lower-paying jobs. Many higher-income earners continue to work from home. And even though the pandemic is worsening, many of Canada's housing markets recorded their strongest December ever. Rock-bottom interest rates, high household savings and changing housing needs turned 2020 into a spectacular year for housing activity.

According to local real estate boards, December resales were surprisingly strong for what is typically a quiet month. Existing home sales surged between 32% y/y in Montreal, Ottawa and Edmonton and 65% y/y in Toronto based on early results. More distant suburbs attracted many families looking for more space with less concern about long commutes when jobs can be conducted at home. Property values continued to appreciate at accelerating rates in most markets. Downtown condo prices still bucked the trend due to ample inventories in Canada’s largest cities—the downturn in the rental market has prompted many condo investors to sell. That said, softer condo prices are now drawing more buyers in. Existing condo sales soared virtually everywhere in December.

Housing is likely to continue to cushion the blow of the pandemic on the overall economy. And while not everyone is sharing in this windfall, it will ultimately help pave the way to better employment gains in the spring.

However, no question that the bright light at the end of the very dark pandemic tunnel is a widely dispersed vaccine. PM Trudeau reasserted this week that the vaccine will be available to all who want it by September 2021. At the pace, it is now getting into people's arms, that will not happen. Just over 0.6% of Canada's population was vaccinated as of Thursday, January 7. By comparison, the US had vaccinated 1.8% of its population by that date, and Israel had inoculated nearly 20%, according to Our World in Data , a nonprofit research project at the University of Oxford. The U.K. had vaccinated about 1.9% of its population by Jan. 3, the latest date for which vaccination numbers were available (see the chart below).

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

4 Ways to Take Control of Your Finances in 2021

Mon, 04 Jan 2021 20:02:03 GMT

The beginning of a new year is an ideal time to review your finances. Hopefully, with the wild ride of 2020 behind us, 2021 is a time we can all move forward. Regardless of where you’re at financially or your financial goals, here are four areas to consider as you take control of your finances in 2021.

Take control of your spending.

If you really want to get ahead, you’ll want to take control of how you spend your money. You do this by getting clarity around how much money you have to spend (income), what you’re required to spend it on (expenses), and then everything else (discretionary spending).

Track your spending and come up with a budget using a spreadsheet. If that seems daunting, consider one of the many financial programs available online. If you’re looking for a little more direction, there are many independent Fee-Only Financial Planners in Canada who can provide you with personalized financial advice for a small fee. Any steps you take here will be better than not taking any steps at all.

Take control of your debt.

If you have debt, you’ll want a plan to get rid of that debt. Start by making a comprehensive list of all the money you owe, the amounts, interest rates, and payment schedules. The key to taking control of your debt is to know exactly how much debt you have.

Make the minimum payments on all your debts while focusing on zeroing the highest interest rate debt first. Once that has been paid off, don’t let up, roll all your payments into the next debt, and so on, until you’re debt-free. Once you’re debt-free, consider rolling all the payments you’ve been making to pay out your debt into your savings account!

Take control of your credit.

How you manage your existing credit determines the credit you’ll be extended in the future. If your goal is to purchase a property, you’ll want to make sure your credit score reflects a history of payments being made as agreed.

Now, even if you’ve made all your payments on time, your credit report might not reflect that, especially if you’ve deferred any payments due to COVID-19. Estimates show that at least 20% of credit reports contain errors. By regularly reviewing your Equifax and Transunion credit bureaus, you can ensure your credit reports don’t have any errors or contain information that might hinder you from getting credit in the future. It's always a good idea to get out ahead of problems before they become problems.

Take control of your mortgage.

If you’re like most Canadians, paying off your mortgage will be your single biggest expense in life, while at the same time, those payments will help build your greatest asset; home equity. Ensuring your mortgage is working for you (and not the bank) is a crucial part of your financial health.

Take control of your mortgage by working with an independent mortgage professional to review your current mortgage and compare it to what is available on the market. If there is money to be saved, it should be saved. The goal of any mortgage should be to lower the overall cost of borrowing over the life of the mortgage. Annual reviews help you accomplish this.

In fact, with all the economic uncertainty caused by COVID-19, mortgage interest rates are currently very low. Now might be a great time to renegotiate the terms of your mortgage, especially if you haven’t done that within the last year. There is no cost to review your mortgage. I would love to outline all your options!

If you’d like to discuss any of this, please don’t hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Canadian Home Sales Hit a New Record For The Month of November

Tue, 15 Dec 2020 16:01:00 GMT

Canadian Housing Remained Strong in November

Today's release of November housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows national home sales continued to run at historically strong levels last month. Competition among buyers remains intense in the detached-home market and townhouses. Still, condo apartment sales-relative-to-new-listings have slowed as new listings surged, especially in the City of Toronto.

Thanks to the lack of tourism and the reduced influx of immigrants, rents in Toronto have declined, changing the economics of condo investing. Many Airbnb properties in the short-term rental pool are now available for long-term rental, and the supply of newly built condos continues to rise. Lower rents have created a negative cash flow situation for some investors who are now anxious to sell. As the supply of condo listings rises, demand has also slowed as many buyers look for less densified space. Combine that with the dearth of tourists and new immigrants, and it's no wonder that the condo sector--especially smaller condos, is the weakest in the housing market.

The Canadian federal government has committed to increased immigration targets for the next three years to make up for the shortfall in 2020. this was featured in a Government of Canada news release stating, "The pandemic has highlighted the contribution of immigrants to the well-being of our communities and across all sectors of the economy. Our health-care system relies on immigrants to keep Canadians safe and healthy. Other industries, such as information technology companies and our farmers and producers, also rely on the talent of newcomers to maintain supply chains, expand their businesses and, in turn, create more jobs for Canadians". Canada aims to welcome 401,000 new immigrants in 2021, 411,000 in 2022 and 421,000 in 2023.

The newly available vaccine will also encourage a return of short-term renters, but probably not until 2022 at the earliest.

Home Sales

Home sales edged down moderately for extremely high levels in both October and November. Notwithstanding this, monthly activity is still running well above historical levels (see chart below).

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity posted a 32.1% y-o-y gain in November – the same as in October. It was a new record for that month by a margin of well over 11,000 transactions. For the fifth straight month, year-over-year sales activity was up in almost all Canadian housing markets compared to the same month in 2019. Among the few markets that were down on a year-over-year basis, it is likely the handful from Ontario reflect a supply issue rather than a demand issue.

This year, some 511,449 homes have traded hands over Canadian MLS® Systems, up 10.5% from the first 11 months of 2019. It was the second-highest January to November sales figure on record, trailing 2016 by only 0.3% at this point.

Shaun Cathcart, CREA's Senior Economist, said, "It will be a photo finish, but it’s looking like 2020 will be a record year for home sales in Canada despite historically low supply. We’re almost in 2021, and market conditions nationally are the tightest they have ever been, and sales activity continues to set records. Much like this virus, I don’t see it all turning into a pumpkin on New Year’s Eve, but at least vaccination is a light at the end of the tunnel. Immigration and population growth will ramp back up, mortgage rates are expected to remain very low, and a place to call home is more important than ever. On top of that, the COVID-related shake-up to so much of daily life will likely continue to result in more people choosing to pull up stakes and move around. If anything, our forecast for another annual sales record in 2021 may be on the low side.”

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes declined by 1.6% in November, led by fewer new listings in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Ottawa.

With sales and new supply down by the same percentages in November, the national sales-to-new listings ratio was unchanged at 74.8% – still among the highest levels on record for the measure. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.2%.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, only about 30% of all local markets were in balanced market territory in November, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other 70% of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.

There were just 2.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2020 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, some 21 Ontario markets were under one month of inventory at the end of November.Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose by 1.2% m-o-m in November 2020. Of the 40 markets now tracked by the index, all but one were up between October and November.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 11.6% on a y-o-y basis in November – the biggest gain since July 2017 (see chart below).

The table below shows the changing preferences of homebuyers for less densely populated areas outside the city core. With more people working from home, shorter commuting times don't seem to be as important as before.

The largest y-o-y gains – between 25- 30% – were recorded in Quinte & District, Tillsonburg District, Woodstock-Ingersoll, and many Ontario cottage country areas.

Y-o-y price increases in the 20-25% range were seen in Barrie, Bancroft and Area, Brantford, Huron Perth, London & St. Thomas, North Bay, Simcoe & District, Southern Georgian Bay and Ottawa.

Y-o-y price gains in the range of 15-20% were posted in Hamilton, Niagara, Guelph, Cambridge, Grey-Bruce Owen Sound, Kitchener-Waterloo, Northumberland Hills, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, Montreal and Greater Moncton.

Prices were up in the 10-15% range in the GTA, Oakville-Milton and Mississauga.

Meanwhile, y-o-y price gains were in the 5-10% range in Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Chilliwack, Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island, the Okanagan Valley, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Quebec City and St. John’s NL. Price gains also climbed to around 1-2% y-o-y in Calgary and Edmonton.

The MLS® HPI provides the best way to gauge price trends because averages are strongly distorted by changes in sales activity mix from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was just over $603,000 in November 2020, up 13.8% from the same month last year.

Bottom Line

Housing strength is largely attributable to record-low mortgage rates and strong demand for more spacious accommodation by households that have maintained their income level during the pandemic. The hardest-hit households are low-wage earners in the accommodation, food services, non-essential retail and tourism-related sectors. These are the folks that can least afford it and typically are not homeowners. The good news is that the housing market is contributing to the recovery in economic activity.

The level of sales is firm and holding up better than most pundits had expected. Despite the historic setback to the market earlier this year caused by the pandemic, CREA projects national sales will hit a record of 544,413 units in 2020, representing an 11.1% increase from 2019, and rise again next year by 7.2% to around 584,000 units.

This article was written by Dr Sherry Cooper, DLCs Chief Economist.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 9 2020

Wed, 09 Dec 2020 15:26:17 GMT

Bank of Canada will maintain current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, continues its quantitative easing program

The rebound in the global and Canadian economies has unfolded largely as the Bank had anticipated in its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). More recently, news on the development of effective vaccines is providing reassurance that the pandemic will end and more normal activities will resume, although the pace and breadth of the global rollout of vaccinations remain uncertain. Near term, new waves of infections are expected to set back recoveries in many parts of the world. Accommodative policy and financial conditions are continuing to provide support across most regions. Stronger demand is pushing up prices for most commodities, including oil. A broad-based decline in the US exchange rate has contributed to a further appreciation of the Canadian dollar.

In Canada, national accounts data for the third quarter were consistent with the Bank’s expectations of a sharp economic rebound following the precipitous decline in the second quarter. The labour market continues to recoup the jobs that were lost at the start of the pandemic, albeit at a slower pace. However, activity remains highly uneven across different sectors and groups of workers. Economic momentum heading into the fourth quarter appears to be stronger than was expected in October but, in recent weeks, record high cases of COVID-19 in many parts of Canada are forcing re-imposition of restrictions. This can be expected to weigh on growth in the first quarter of 2021 and contribute to a choppy trajectory until a vaccine is widely available. The federal government’s recently announced measures should help maintain business and household incomes during this second wave of the pandemic and support the recovery.

CPI inflation in October picked up to 0.7 percent, largely reflecting higher prices for fresh fruits and vegetables. While this suggests a slightly firmer track for inflation in the fourth quarter, the outlook for inflation remains in line with the October MPR projection. Measures of core inflation are all below 2 percent, and considerable economic slack is expected to continue to weigh on inflation for some time.

Canada’s economic recovery will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our October projection, this does not happen until into 2023. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank will continue its QE program until the recovery is well underway and will adjust it as required to help bring inflation back to target on a sustainable basis. We remain committed to providing the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 20, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

Subsequent to the Bank’s previously announced review of the publication time of its interest rate announcements, the Bank re-confirms that it will remain at 10:00 (ET). As announced, starting in January the target for the overnight rate will take effect on the business day following each rate announcement.

Jobs Growth Slows in November Struck By Second Wave

Fri, 04 Dec 2020 20:30:36 GMT

Canada's Jobs Recovery Slowed Again in November With Second Wave

The November Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Stats Canada, showed an employment increase of 62,000 compared to 83,600 in October--well below the 378,000 gain in September. This was the weakest job growth in the past six months since the economic recovery began (see chart below). The rapid runup in COVID cases continues to dampen the recovery.

Virtually all of the job gains last month were in full-time work. Among those who worked part-time in November, more than one-fifth (22.6%; 808,000) wanted full-time work (30 hours or more per week) but could not find it. This was up 5.2 percentage points from 12 months earlier, with above-average increases among men aged 25 to 54 (up 13.2 percentage points to 46.4%).

Among those who worked at least half of their usual hours, 4.6 million worked from home in November. This was an increase of approximately 250,000 from October and included 2.5 million who do not usually work from home. Among the same group, the number of people working at locations other than home fell by approximately 100,000 to 12.2 million.

The unemployment rate fell to 8.6% in November, compared to 8.9% in October--well below the record-high 13.7% in May.

Hospitals and schools drive growth in public sector employment

The number of public sector employees grew by 32,000 (+0.8%) in November and exceeded its pre-COVID February level by 1.5%. On a year-over-year basis, the number of public sector workers was up 61,000 (+1.6%), driven mostly by increases in hospitals and elementary and secondary schools (not seasonally adjusted).

The number of private-sector employees was little changed in November but was down by 411,000 (-3.3%) compared with 12 months earlier. This decline was largest in accommodation and food services, while employment in professional, scientific and technical services increased (see chart below).

Growth in self-employment stalled in November, and this group remained furthest from November 2019 (-4.5%; -131,000) and from the February pre-COVID level (-4.7%; -136,000).

Employment declines in leisure activities & accommodation and food services

In November, employment in information, culture and recreation declined by 26,000 (-3.5%), the first notable decline for this industry since April. Employment fell for a second consecutive month in Quebec, where restrictions on public gatherings had been notably tightened as of the Labour Force Survey reference week. At the national level, employment in information, culture and recreation was 10.5% lower in November than in February (see chart below).

Employment in accommodation and food services declined for the second consecutive month, falling by 24,000 (-2.4%) in November, with the drop being shared between Ontario, Manitoba and Quebec. Nearly 1 in 10 (8.9%) employees in accommodation and food services worked less than half their usual hours in November—the third-highest share among all industries, following business, building and other support services (10.3%), and transportation and warehousing (9.2%) (not seasonally adjusted).

Statistics Canada conducted the Canadian Survey on Business Conditions to collect information on businesses' expectations moving forward from mid-September to late October. Almost one-quarter of businesses in accommodation and food services (22.5%) expected to reduce their number of employees over the next three months, more than double the average across all businesses (10.4%).

Second consecutive employment increase in retail trade

In retail trade, employment grew for the second consecutive month, rising 1.5% in November (+32,000), with most of the month-over-month increase in Ontario. Shutdowns of in-person shopping at non-essential retailers were introduced in Toronto and Peel on November 23, after the LFS reference week. They may be reflected in the December LFS results. December results may also shed light on the effect of tighter restrictions in other provinces such as Manitoba and Alberta.

At the national level, the employment increase in November brought retail trade within 3.7% of its pre-COVID employment level.

Employment growth resumes for construction and transportation and warehousing

Employment in construction rose by 26,000 (+1.9%) in November, the first increase since July, largely due to a 5.5% (+28,000) increase in Ontario. Nationally, employment in construction was 5.7% below its February level.

After pausing in October, employment growth resumed in transportation and warehousing in November (+20,000; +2.1%). The increase was largely the result of gains in Ontario and British Columbia, bringing employment in this industry to within 6.4% of its pre-COVID level.

Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing now exceeding pre-COVID employment levels

Employment rose for the third consecutive month in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing, up by 15,000 (+1.2%). The recent employment growth in this industry pushed it fully into recovery territory, surpassing its February level by 2.3%.

Employment up in natural resources for the second consecutive month

In natural resources, employment rose for the second consecutive month, rising 3.1% in November (+10,000) and returning to its pre-COVID level. The month-over-month gain was nearly equally split between Alberta and British Columbia. Data for this industry over the next few months may shed light on Alberta's impact, ending its limits on oil production in December, allowing producers to utilize available pipeline capacity and increase employment.

Labour market conditions vary across provincesEmployment increased in six provinces: Ontario, British Columbia and in all four Atlantic provinces. Manitoba experienced its first employment loss since April, while the number of people with a job or business held steady in Quebec, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

By November, employment levels in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick had returned to pre-COVID levels. Employment was nearest February levels in British Columbia (-1.5%) in November and farthest in Manitoba (-4.8%) and Alberta (-4.9%).

Employment growth continues to slow in Central Canada

Following average monthly employment growth of 3.1% from June to September, Ontario saw slow growth in October. This continued in November, as employment rose by 37,000 (+0.5%), mostly in full-time work. Employment in the Toronto CMA was at a standstill in November after increasing for five consecutive months. The Ontario unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 9.1%.

The largest employment gain was in construction, an industry not affected by recent restrictions. Simultaneously, there were declines in accommodation and food services amid the tightening of public health measures in the City of Toronto and the Region of Peel.

Employment in Quebec was little changed for the second consecutive month. In the Montréal CMA , employment was flat for the second consecutive month following average monthly growth of 3.8% from May to September. The Quebec unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 7.2% as fewer people were on temporary layoff.

Employment fell in accommodation and food services and information, culture and recreation, coinciding with the targeted public health measures since October. Employment increased in professional, scientific and technical services.

Continued employment growth in British Columbia

Just before the start of the LFS reference week of November 8 to 14, the Vancouver Coastal Health Region and the Fraser Health Region introduced new restrictions on social gatherings, travel, gyms, and indoor sports facilities as new COVID-related workplace safety requirements.

Despite these new restrictions, employment in British Columbia grew by 24,000 (+1.0%) in November, adding to the gains over the previous six months (+335,000). Losses in part-time employment partly offset gains in full-time work. Several industries saw increases, including accommodation and food services, transportation and warehousing, wholesale and retail trade, and construction. The unemployment rate fell 0.9 percentage points to 7.1%.

Employment grew (+1.2%) in the Vancouver CMA , albeit slower than in the previous two months.

More people working in Atlantic Canada

Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick all had employment gains in November.

Nova Scotia posted the largest employment increase among the Atlantic provinces, up 10,000 (+2.2%), continuing the upward trend since April. The increase in November was mostly in full-time work. The unemployment rate fell 2.3 percentage points to 6.4%, the lowest since March 2019 and the lowest among the provinces.

New Brunswick posted its first significant employment gain (+4,200; +1.2%) since the substantial increases in May and June. The increase in November was nearly all in full-time work, and the unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 9.6%.

Employment in Newfoundland and Labrador rose for the seventh consecutive month, up 2,300 (+1.0%) in November, and regained all of the losses sustained since February. The unemployment rate in November was little changed at 12.2%. Industries with employment losses at the start of the pandemic, such as natural resources, construction and manufacturing, saw small increases in subsequent months and offset the declines in March and April. Others, such as healthcare and social assistance and public administration, continued to gain employment in recent months, pushing their employment above February levels.

Prince Edward Island also had more people working in November (+1,000; +1.3%), and the unemployment rate was 10.2%.

Employment losses in Manitoba

Employment in Manitoba decreased by 18,000 in November, nearly all in part-time work. This was the first notable decline since April and coincided with tighter public health measures introduced in early November for the Winnipeg metropolitan region and the rest of the province by the LFS reference week. The largest employment decrease was in accommodation and food services. The unemployment rate was little changed in November at 7.4% as fewer Manitobans participated in the labour market.

In both Saskatchewan and Alberta, there was little employment change in November. As of the LFS reference week of November 8 to November 14, both provinces had largely avoided introducing tighter public health measures. The unemployment rate in Saskatchewan increased 0.5 percentage points to 6.9%, with more people looking for work, while the Alberta unemployment rate was little changed at 11.1%.

Bottom Line

The economic recovery remains dependent on the evolution of the pandemic. The best news we've had in the past month is the successful development of efficacious vaccines. The timing of approvals and distribution is uncertain, but it is safe to say that the worst of the pandemic will continue this winter, with a seasonal reprieve in the spring and summer. By then, the distribution of the vaccine will hopefully be well underway. That means that 2021 will be a transition year, and in 2022 we can expect the economy can move from recovery to expansion.

There was good news in this Labour Force Report. Although job gains slowed, total hours worked rose by an impressive 1.2% m/m. Following a decent 0.8% rise in the prior month, this big gain "builds in" a strong 14% annualized gain for all Q4 for hours worked. Note that total hours are one of Ottawa's three new "guardrails" for judging when to rein in fiscal stimulus; both of the other two also improved, with unemployment falling 81,000 and the employment rate nudging up 0.1 tick to 59.5% (it's still 2.3 ppt below pre-Covid levels). Average hourly wages eased again, as expected, but remain robust at 5.0% y/y.

We suspect the job cuts in the hospitality sector, and possibly retail, will bite much deeper in next month's report, as restrictions tightened notably immediately after this survey period. Overall, the report is firmer than expected and suggests that the economy is dealing a bit better than anticipated with the early stages of the second wave.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was syndicated with permission.

Is Your Mortgage Up For Renewal In The Next 3-6 Months?

Wed, 02 Dec 2020 04:00:23 GMT

While this potential second wave of COVID-19 is causing uncertainty in the Canadian economy, understandably, many homeowners are on edge. And although it might feel right to sit tight and see how things pan out, if your mortgage is up for renewal in the next 3-6 months, now is actually the best time to have a conversation with an independent mortgage professional to discuss your mortgage options.

This is especially true if you’ve seen a reduction of income due to the pandemic, taken any government assistance, or if you’ve deferred (or missed) any of your mortgage payments. Any of the above might not impact your renewal, but the whole reason you plan ahead on things like this is to make sure you aren’t left without options by leaving it to the last minute. We haven’t seen the full impact COVID-19 has had on mortgage financing, don’t wait until the last minute to secure your renewal. Planning ahead is the smart move.

Did you know that many Canadians sign the renewal letter they receive in the mail from their current lender without a second thought? They assume that the lender is looking out for their best interest. The truth is, all lenders know this and rarely offer their best rate or terms at the onset of negotiations. And that is exactly what a mortgage renewal is, a negotiation.

Don’t be led to believe that a mortgage renewal is a simple transaction, that you should just take what your lender offers you, look at all your options. Now, this doesn’t mean just looking at all the terms offered by one lender; it means looking at products from multiple lenders. You do this by working with an independent mortgage professional.

When you work with an independent mortgage professional, you receive the expertise of a trained banking professional who is working for you and not the bank; at no cost to you!

As we move into an uncertain economic future, you might want to look at mortgage terms and options that might be different from what you’ve gone with in the past. Just because you took a 5-year term previously doesn’t mean you have to go with another 5-year term. You have lots of options.

Interest rates are at an all-time low, making it a perfect time to ensure you’re getting the best deal on a mortgage. We’d love to help you with that. Contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime! ! At the very least, by having a quick conversation, we can assess your financial situation and see if the renewal letter you received is a good deal.

Canada's Fiscal Response To COVID Is The Largest In the Industrialized World

Mon, 30 Nov 2020 23:54:43 GMT

Federal Fiscal Update--Finance Minister Freeland's Debut

Justin Trudeau’s government, which has delivered the biggest Covid-19 fiscal response in the industrialized world, announced plans for another dose of stimulus and vowed to continue priming the pump as long as needed.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland unveiled $51.7 billion of new spending over two years in a mini-budget Monday, led by an enhanced wages subsidy for business. Freeland also pledged, without detailing, another $70 billion to $100 billion of additional stimulus over three years to spur the recovery.

But the finance minister clearly heeded calls for fiscal prudence. She put off any major structural spending announcements, promised any additional stimulus will be temporary and introduced new taxes on digital giants including Netflix, Amazon, and Airbnb, to help pay for it all.

“Our government will make carefully judged, targeted and meaningful investments to create jobs and boost growth,” Freeland said. It will provide “the fiscal support the Canadian economy needs to operate at its full capacity and to stop Covid-19 from doing long-term damage to our economic potential.”

Freeland revised higher the nation’s projected deficit this year to $381.6 billion, or 17.5% of GDP. That’s up from a deficit of 1.7% of GDP last year. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund, no major economy will show a bigger fiscal swing in 2020.

The budgetary red ink is projected at $121 billion next year, before any additional stimulus. In total, spending linked to the government’s COVID response accounted for C$75 billion of this year’s deficit, and C$51 billion next year.

Based on Monday’s projections, the deficit is seen gradually narrowing to about $51 billion in two years and $25 billion by 2025.

The planned stimulus over the next three years will total no more than 4% of GDP, which the document said is in line with the Bank of Canada’s estimate of the level of slack in the economy. Freeland said, “fiscal guardrails” tied to the labour market would help determine the extent of the additional stimulus.

Among the measures announced today, Freeland boosted the government's wage subsidy program (Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy, CEWS) to cover as much as 75% of payroll costs for businesses and extended its commercial rent subsidy and lockdown support top-ups until March. Both were slated to run out on December 20. The current cap on CEWS was 65%.

The federal government plans to create a new funding program to help restaurants, tourism companies and other businesses in industries hardest hit by COVID-19.

The Highly Affected Sectors Credit Availability Program (HASCAP), which was announced in the government’s fiscal update Monday, will offer eligible businesses loans of up to $1 million, with a 10-year term.

The money will be lent by banks or other financial institutions, but guaranteed by the federal government.

“We know that businesses in tourism, hospitality, travel, arts and culture have been particularly hard-hit. So we’re creating a new stream of support for those businesses that need it most — a credit availability program with 100-per-cent government-backed loan support and favourable terms for businesses that have lost revenue as people stay home to fight the spread of the virus,” Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said in her prepared speech to the House of Commons.

Establishing a national childcare plan is a key long-term goal, with Freeland vowing a detailed plan in next year’s budget. In her forward to the fiscal update, she described the daycare strategy as “a feminist plan” that also “makes sound business sense.”

As a start, the Liberals are proposing in their fiscal update to spend $420 million in grants and bursaries to help provinces and territories train and retain qualified early childhood educators.

The Liberals are also proposing to spend $20 million over five years to build a child-care secretariat to guide federal policy work, plus $15 million in ongoing spending for a similar Indigenous-focused body.

The money is designed to lay the foundation for what will likely be a big-money promise in the coming budget.

Current federal spending on child care expires near the end of the decade, but the Liberals are proposing now to keep the money flowing, starting with $870 million a year in 2028.

There is also money for action on climate change. The government allocated C$2.6 billion in grants for homeowners to improve efficiency and $150 million over three years for electric vehicle charging stations.

The government also detailed some help for the hard-hit tourism sector, including funding for airports. But with Transport Minister Marc Garneau’s negotiations with airlines underway, there is no specific money for carriers including Air Canada and WestJet Airlines Ltd.

Bottom Line

There will continue to be great concern about the largest budget deficits since World War II. Does Canada really need the proportionately largest COVID fiscal response in the industrialized world? The outlook is somewhat less dire than when the government released a fiscal snapshot in July. The unemployment rate at 8.9% is down materially from May’s 13.7% high but well above February’s 5.6%. The economy recovered ground through the third quarter, although the second wave of pandemic and ensuing restrictions undoubtedly will topple economic activity this quarter.

There is little worry that the government can sustain a massive deficit this year. It can, given low debt levels entering the crisis and historically low interest rates. But now that it has no fiscal guardrails, there’s a risk debt-to-GDP will continue to rise in the medium term if it continues to spend ambitiously.

The government is adding a new revenue source by taxing large digital companies. Still, in time, with this level of spending, they will be tempted to raise taxes on domestic sources, for example, hikes in the GST and higher capital gains taxes. This would be misguided, given the fragility of the recovery.

There is a greater risk that the government is overdoing the stimulus with vaccines on the horizon than undergoing it. Canada's programs have been generous and household-focused compared to our G7 peers. The government must be strategic in assuring that new program spending is focused on future growth, beyond the pandemic, so that our debt-to-GDP will resume its downward trend. The risk is that once created; it is difficult to rein in spending.

This article was written by Dr Sherry Cooper, DLC's Chief Economist and was published with permission.

Should I Get A Mortgage Pre-Approval?

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 16:08:31 GMT

Should I get a Mortgage Pre Approval?

Going through the pre-approval process is important. However, the actual term ‘pre-approval’ is often misunderstood. It’s not magic, and it’s certainly not binding.

Let’s be clear, a pre-approval isn’t for the lender; it’s for you!

And yes, if you’re considering buying a property, you should start with a pre-approval. But be aware that simply having a pre-approval isn’t all you need to secure mortgage financing.

When you sit down with your mortgage broker, we’ll discuss your financial situation, work through a lender product review, access your credit report, and review all income and downpayment documents. At the end of the pre-approval process, you should be clear just how much you qualify to purchase and how much this will cost. A pre-approval should never be relied on as a sure-fire bet for future mortgage financing. There is a lot more to work through.

While we can work together to preview and catch any significant areas of concern such as unpaid/unfiled taxes, employment probation, or clarity around downpayment origins, please understand that lenders do not offer a formal live review of documents, so it’s important to protect yourself as best you can.

The best way to do this is to include a condition (or ‘subject’) clause along the lines of ‘subject to receiving and approving satisfactory financing’. There are several variables that can derail a final approval once you write an offer on a property, this clause protects you while everything is sorted out. This is arguably the single most important clause in a purchase contract, and should not be taken lightly (even in cases of multiple competing offers).

So the bottom line is, start with a pre-approval, but protect yourself by allowing enough time in the purchase transaction to finalize the mortgage financing. If you have any questions about this or anything else mortgage related, please don’t hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

3 Reasons to Use an Independent Mortgage Professional!

Tue, 17 Nov 2020 19:47:12 GMT

If you need to borrow money to finance any property, working with an independent mortgage professional will save you money, time, and provide you with better options than your bank.

And if that is the only sentence you read in this entire article, you already know all you need to. However, if you’d like to dig a little deeper, here are three reasons why working with an independent mortgage professional is in your best interest.

The best mortgage is the one that costs you the least over the life of your mortgage. An independent mortgage professional will guide you.

All mortgages are NOT created equal. Unfortunately, slick marketing and consumerism have led us to believe that the lowest “sticker price” equals the best value. As it relates to mortgages, we’re led to believe that the lowest rate equals the best mortgage. However, this is entirely wrong.

When considering which mortgage is the best for you, you’ll want to find one that will cost you the least over the total length of the mortgage. There are so many more factors to consider than just rates, such as the initial term, fixed or variable, amortization, or any potential penalty to break the mortgage (should you need to sell the property before the end of your term).

An independent mortgage professional will outline all your options, and help you find the mortgage that best suits your needs. Sometimes taking a mortgage with a bit of a higher rate makes sense if it gives you flexibility down the line to avoid huge payout penalties.

Save time and protect yourself by submitting one mortgage application, and let an independent mortgage professional find the best product for you.

Let’s face it; getting a mortgage can be challenging enough on its own. Everyone’s financial situation is a little different and making sense of lender guidelines is a full-time job in itself. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, you submit a single mortgage application, all your documentation is collected upfront, and one credit report is taken.

Your mortgage professional will then compare your mortgage application and financial situation to various lender guidelines and provide you with the best mortgage options (from their expert opinion). By allowing your mortgage professional to do all the research with multiple lenders, you save time while being provided with more options than you’d have available to you if you did all the work on your own, a win-win situation.

An independent mortgage professional works for you, on your behalf, while a bank specialist works for the bank and has the banks best interest in mind.

It’s no secret that Canadian banks make A LOT of money. It seems every quarter they turn billions of dollars in profit (despite the economic environment). They do this at the expense of their customers by charging as much interest as they can while locking clients into mortgages with fine print that costs them a lot of money down the line if they need to break their mortgage.

Bank employee’s work for the bank, they are paid by the bank to make money for the bank. In contrast, independent mortgage professionals are provincially licenced to work for their clients and are paid a standardized placement or finder’s fee for matching borrowers with lenders.

When you work with a single bank, you only have access to the products of that bank. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, you have access to all of the lenders that mortgage professional works with and all of their products.

If your goal is to find the best mortgage, one that costs you the least over time, you need product options. And independent mortgage professional provides you with this.

If you’d like to discuss mortgage financing, as an independent mortgage professional, we would love to work with you. Contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

What Will Mortgage Financing Look Like In 2021?

Tue, 03 Nov 2020 22:05:34 GMT

There is no doubt that 2020 was one for the books. It will be remembered as a year like no other. COVID-19 has caused significant national economic disruption, to say the least. While we’ve seen government intervention, record unemployment, mortgage payment deferrals, record low-interest rates, we’ve also seen continued growth in the housing market.

So what can we expect as we complete the final quarter in 2020 and move into 2021? Well, low interest rates and increased scrutiny on all mortgage applications are most likely in the cards.

Low interest rates

Right now, both fixed and variable rate mortgage rates are at all-time lows. The cost to borrow money for a mortgage has never been cheaper. According to the Bank of Canada, we can expect them to stay low for the foreseeable future. “Interest rates are very low, and they are going to be there for a long time. Canadians and Canadian businesses are facing an unusual amount of uncertainty, so we have been unusually clear about the future path for interest rates.”

And while low interest rates are a good thing for financing property now, unfortunately, they won’t be as easy to access as in previous years.

More scrutiny on mortgage applications

While we don’t expect lender or insurer guidelines to change much in the coming months, securing mortgage financing in a post-COVID economy has already proven to be harder as lenders apply increased scrutiny to each application. Every mortgage application is being looked at more deeply, and additional documentation is being requested to substantiate your application. Lenders are being more cautious about who they’re lending money to.

If you’re self-employed or rely on overtime, bonuses, or picking up additional shifts to make ends meet, securing a mortgage is going to be more difficult for you. As lenders look at a 2 year average for employment, if you took a hit to your income in 2020, that will impact you in 2021. Any type of non-guaranteed income will be more scrutinized.

If the pandemic impacted your employment and you deferred any payments (credit card, loan, line of credit, or mortgage), expect to be questioned. Lenders will ask for your story; they will want to know why you had to defer payments and how you are now in a better financial position.

Unfortunately, one of the common complaints about getting a mortgage is that it is very document-intensive. Lenders want to see a lot of supporting documents for every mortgage application. And moving into mortgage financing in 2021, you can expect even more requests for supporting documents.

Have a plan in place

So while the housing market continues to grow and low rates make it a good time to buy, the best way to prepare for increased scrutiny and documentation on your mortgage application is to plan ahead.

If your mortgage is up for renewal, you’d like to refinance, or you’re planning on buying a new property, the best thing to do is to get started immediately. Getting together your documents will take time; having a plan on what that looks like is the way to go.

I would love to have a conversation and outline all your options. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 28th, 2020

Wed, 28 Oct 2020 14:08:03 GMT

Bank of Canada will maintain current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, recalibrates its quantitative easing program

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program. The Bank is recalibrating the QE program to shift purchases towards longer-term bonds, which have more direct influence on the borrowing rates that are most important for households and businesses. At the same time, total purchases will be gradually reduced to at least $4 billion a week. The Governing Council judges that, with these combined adjustments, the QE program is providing at least as much monetary stimulus as before.

The global and Canadian economic outlooks have evolved largely as anticipated in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with rapid expansions as economies reopened giving way to slower growth, despite considerable remaining excess capacity. Looking ahead, rising COVID-19 infections are likely to weigh on the economic outlook in many countries, and growth will continue to rely heavily on policy support.

In the United States, GDP growth rebounded strongly but appears to be slowing considerably. China’s economic output is back to pre-pandemic levels and its recovery continues to broaden. Emerging-market economies have been hit harder, especially those with severe outbreaks. The recovery in Europe is slowing amid mounting lockdowns. Overall, global GDP is projected to contract by about 4 percent in 2020 before growing by just over 4 ½ percent, on average, in 2021–22.

Oil prices remain about 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, non-energy commodity prices, on average, have more than fully recovered. Despite continued low oil prices, the Canadian dollar has appreciated since July, largely reflecting a broad-based depreciation of the US dollar.

In Canada, the rebound in employment and GDP was stronger than expected as the economy reopened through the summer. The economy is now transitioning to a more moderate recuperation phase. In the fourth quarter, growth is expected to slow markedly, due in part to rising COVID-19 case numbers. The economic effects of the pandemic are highly uneven across sectors and are particularly affecting low-income workers. Recognizing these challenges, governments have extended and modified business and income support programs.

After a decline of about 5 ½ percent in 2020, the Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by almost 4 percent on average in 2021 and 2022. Growth will likely be choppy as domestic demand is influenced by the evolution of the virus and its impact on consumer and business confidence. Considering the likely long-lasting effects of the pandemic, the Bank has revised down its estimate of Canada’s potential growth over the projection horizon.

CPI inflation was at 0.5 percent in September and is expected to stay below the Bank’s target band of 1 to 3 percent until early 2021, largely due to low energy prices. Measures of core inflation are all below 2 percent, consistent with an economy where demand has fallen by more than supply. Inflation is expected to remain below target throughout the projection horizon.

As the economy recuperates, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our current projection, this does not happen until into 2023. The Bank is continuing its QE program and recalibrating it as described above. The program will continue until the recovery is well underway. We are committed to providing the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 9, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on January 20, 2021.

Here is a link to the latest Monetary Policy Report.

Canadian Home Sales and Prices Set Records Again in September

Wed, 21 Oct 2020 17:35:26 GMT

Today's release of September housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows national home sales rose 0.9% on a month-over-month (m-o-m) (see chart below). This continues the rebound in housing that began five months ago amid record-tight market conditions.

"Along with historic supply shortages in a number of regions, fierce competition among buyers has been putting upward pressure on home prices. Much of that was pent-up demand from the spring that came forward as our economies opened back up over the summer," said Costa Poulopoulos, Chair of CREA.

According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA's Senior Economist, “Reasons have been cited for this – pent-up demand from the lockdowns, Government support to date, ultra-low interest rates, and the composition of job losses to name a few. I would also remind everyone that sales were almost setting records and markets were almost this tight back in February so we were already close to where things are now, as far away from Goldilocks territory as we had ever been before. But I think another wildcard factor to consider, which has no historical precedent, is the value of one’s home during this time. Home has been our workplace, our kids’ schools, the gym, the park and more. Personal space is more important than ever.”

The modest uptick in home sales nationally reflected diverse results regionally with about 60% of local markets seeing gains. Increases in Ottawa, Greater Vancouver, Vancouver Island, Calgary and Hamilton-Burlington sales were mostly offset by declines in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Montreal; although, activity in the two largest Canadian markets is still historically very strong.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity posted a 45.6% y-o-y gain in September. It was a new record for the month of September by a margin of 20,000 transactions, the equivalent of a normal month of September with an entire month of December tacked on. Sales activity was up in almost all Canadian housing markets on a year-over-year basis.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes declined by 10.2% in September, reversing the surge to record levels seen August. New supply was down in two-thirds of local markets, led by declines in and around Vancouver and the GTA.

With sales edging up in September and new supply dropping back, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 77.2% – the highest in almost 20 years and the third-highest monthly level on record for the measure.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, about a third of all local markets were in balanced market territory, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other two-thirds of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.

There were just 2.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2020 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, a number of Ontario markets are now into weeks of inventory rather than months. Much of the province of Ontario is close to or under one month of inventory.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose by 1.3% m-o-m in September 2020. Of the 39 markets now tracked by the index, all but two were up between August and September.

As buyers are moving further away from city centres, CREA added a large number of Ontario markets to the MLS® HPI this month. The list includes Bancroft and Area, Brantford Region, Cambridge, Grey Bruce Owen Sound, Huron Perth, Kawartha Lakes, Kitchener-Waterloo, the Lakelands (Muskoka-Haliburton-Orillia-Parry Sound), London & St. Thomas, Mississauga, North Bay, Northumberland Hills, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, Quinte & District, Simcoe & District, Southern Georgian Bay, Tillsonburg District and Woodstock-Ingersoll.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 10.3% on a y-o-y basis in September – the biggest gain since August 2017. The largest y-o-y gains in the 22-23% range were recorded in Bancroft and Area, Quinte & District, Ottawa and Woodstock-Ingersoll.

This was followed by y-o-y price gains in the range of 15-20% in Barrie, Hamilton, Niagara, Guelph, Brantford, Cambridge, Grey Bruce-Owen Sound, Huron Perth, the Lakelands, London & St. Thomas, North Bay, Simcoe & District, Southern Georgian Bay, Tillsonburg District and Montreal.

Prices were up in the 10-15% range compared to last September in the GTA, Oakville-Milton, Kawartha Lakes, Kitchener-Waterloo, Mississauga, Northumberland Hills, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, and Greater Moncton.

Meanwhile, y-o-y price gains were around 5% in Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, the Okanagan Valley, Regina, Saskatoon and Quebec City. Gains were about half that in Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island, as well and in St. John’s, and prices were more or less flat y-o-y in Calgary and Edmonton.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price set another record in September 2020, topping the $600,000 mark for the first time ever at more than $604,000. This was up 17.5% from the same month last year.

Bottom Line

Housing strength is largely attributable to record-low mortgage rates and pent-up demand by households that have maintained their level of income during the pandemic. The hardest-hit households are low-wage earners in the accommodation, food services, and travel sectors. These are the folks that can least afford it and typically are not homeowners.

The good news is that the housing market is contributing to the recovery in economic activity.

Stronger-Than-Expected Canadian Jobs Report in September

Tue, 13 Oct 2020 16:39:36 GMT

Canada Has Recouped Three-Quarters Of Pandemic Job Losses

The September Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Statistics Canada, reflects labour market conditions during the week of September 13 to 19, six months after the onset of the COVID-19 economic shutdown. As Canadian families adapted to new back-to-school routines at the beginning of September, public health restrictions had been substantially eased across the country, and many businesses and workplaces had re-opened. Throughout the month, some restrictions were re-imposed in response to increases in the number of COVID-19 cases. In British Columbia, new rules and guidelines related to bars and restaurants were implemented on September 8. In Ontario, limits on social gatherings were tightened for the hot spots of Toronto, Peel and Ottawa on September 17 and the rest of the province on September 19.

Employment gains unexpectedly accelerated in September, increasing by 378,200, more than double the consensus forecast on a broadly based pickup in hiring. This was the fifth consecutive month of job gains, which has now retraced three-quarters of the 3 million jobs lost during March and April. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% in August to 9.0% in September. Most economists had expected a job gain of 150,000 and a jobless rate of 9.8%.

Another piece of good news is that most of the net new jobs were in full-time work. The number of Canadians who were employed but worked less than half their usual hours for reasons likely related to COVID-19 fell by 108,000 (-7.1%) in September.

September gains brought employment to within 720,000 (-3.7%) of its pre-COVID February level. The accommodation and food services (-188,000) and retail trade (-146,000) industries remained furthest from full recovery, while youth employment was 263,000 (-10.3%) below February levels.

Among Canadians who worked most of their usual hours, the proportion working from home edged down from August to September, from 26.4% to 25.6%.

Employment increased in every province except New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island in September, with the largest gains in Ontario and Quebec.

As a result of the COVID-19 economic shutdown, the unemployment rate more than doubled from 5.6% in February to a record high of 13.7% in May. The 9.0% jobless rate in September marks a rapid improvement. By comparison, during the 2008/2009 recession, the unemployment rate rose from 6.2% in October 2008 to peak at 8.7% in June 2009. It then took approximately nine years to return to its pre-recession rate.

Employment in accommodation and food services rose by 72,000 (+7.4%) in September. This was the fifth consecutive monthly increase and brought total gains since the initial easing of COVID-19 restrictions in May to 427,000. Nevertheless, this industry's employment was the furthest from recovery in September, down 15.3% (-188,000) from its pre-pandemic February level.

The accommodation and food services industry is likely to continue to face many challenges over the coming months. While outdoor dining is likely to become impractical during the winter months and as some COVID restrictions are re-introduced, a recent study indicated that Canadians plan to reduce spending at restaurants.

Following four months of increases, employment in retail trade held steady in September. Compared with February, employment in this industry was down by 146,000 (-6.4%). After increasing sharply in May and June, following the initial easing of COVID-19 restrictions, retail sales slowed markedly in July.

In construction, a long road to recovery remains.

Employment in construction remained little changed for the second consecutive month in September and was down by 120,000 (-8.1%) compared with its pre-COVID level. Compared with February, employment in construction was down the most in Ontario (-54,000; -9.5%) and British Columbia (-39,000; -16.3%).

Construction consists of three subsectors: construction of buildings, heavy and civil engineering construction, and specialty trade contractors. According to the latest results from the Survey of Employment Payrolls and Hours , employment in construction fell from February to July in each of these subsectors, with the largest decline among specialty trade contractors. The release of investment in building construction for July showed that investment in building construction was slightly lower in July than in February.

Manufacturing employment almost fully recovered, but lagging in Alberta.

While some industries face a long recovery to pre-COVID employment levels, some sectors—including manufacturing—have almost fully recovered.

The pace of employment growth in manufacturing picked up in September (+68,000; +4.1%), following two months of modest growth over the summer. The September gains brought the total employment change in this industry to a level similar to that of February. While employment in manufacturing remained well below pre-pandemic levels in Alberta (-17,000; -12.1%) and to a lesser extent in Quebec (-15,000; -3.1%), employment was above the pre-COVID level in Ontario (+17,000; +2.3%).

Employment in educational services rises in September and surpasses pre-COVID levels.

Employment in educational services grew by 68,000 (+5.0%) in September, led by Ontario and Quebec. After declining by 11.5% from February to April, employment in the industry has increased for five consecutive months and has reached a level 2.6% higher than in February.

As students returned to school in August and September, some jurisdictions increased staffing levels to support classroom adaptations. On a year-over-year basis, employment in educational services was up by 32,000 (+2.3%) in September, driven by an increase in elementary and secondary school teachers and educational counsellors (not seasonally adjusted).

Bottom Line

The labour market impact of the COVID-19 economic shutdown has been particularly severe for low-wage employees (defined as those who earned less than $16.03 per hour, or two-thirds of the 2019 annual median wage of $24.04/hour). From February to April, employment among low-wage employees fell by 38.1%, compared with a decline of 12.7% for all other paid employees (not seasonally adjusted).

Almost half of the year-over-year decline in low-wage employees in September was accounted for by three industries: retail trade; accommodation and food services; and business, building and other support services industries.

The pandemic has disproportionately hit low-wage workers and youth, explaining why housing activity has been so strong. Low-wage employees and youth are typically not homebuyers or sellers.

Moreover, the RBC COVID Consumer Spending Tracker for the week of October 5 shows that spending trends continued solid with few signs of second-wave worries impacting consumer confidence yet.

According to RBC:

"Among retail categories, clothing spending continued to climb, returning to year-ago levels.
Spending on apparel, gifts, and jewelry was up 1.5% relative to last year.
Other retail categories held on to gains from the past few months.
Despite plateauing in dollar terms, entertainment spending ticked up relative to last year.
During the summer, high golf spending likely continued into early fall— rather than slowing down as it would have in a normal year.
Slower spending on accommodation and car rentals accelerated a downward trend in travel-related purchases that have dominated in the last several weeks.
Travel spending had recovered partially from pandemic lows; it was still down about 60% in peak summer. It worsened again as the weather cooled.
Simultaneously, automotive spending fell slightly, in line with seasonal trends, as the summer road trip season came to an end.
Labour Day saw the strongest restaurant spending since before the pandemic, but the uptick was fleeting.
Spending on dining out quickly fell back to -6% relative to a year ago, a level it’s hovered around since July."

Recently released data from the real estate boards in Toronto and Vancouver showed strong sales activity and significant further upward pressure on prices. In the GTA, a surge in new listings of high-rise condos meant that the upward pressure on home prices was driven by the ground-oriented market segments, including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses. Home sales and new listing activity reached record levels in Metro Vancouver last month. The heightened demand from home buyers is keeping overall supply levels down. This is creating upward pressure on home prices, which have been edging up since the spring.

The CREA data for the whole country will be out on the 15th of October. This adjusts the price data for types of homes sold, giving us a better idea of how significant price pressures have been and in which sectors—more on that next week.

This article was written by Dr Sherry Cooper, DLC's chief economist and was published here with permission.

Will a Temporary Loss of Income Impact Your Mortgage Post-COVID-19?

Thu, 08 Oct 2020 17:22:43 GMT

While unemployment peaked over 13% at the onset, it's hard to quantify just how many Canadians had some form of a reduction in their income over the last year. Especially if you're self-employed or your income varies year to year because you receive a bonus, pick up shifts, freelance, or you earn income that isn't guaranteed.

If you earn variable income, and you've seen a reduction in income because of the pandemic, this has the potential to impact how much mortgage you qualify for up to the next three years.

Here's why. For income that isn't guaranteed, when assessing your mortgage application, most of the time, lenders will look at a 2-year average. So let's say you're looking to secure a mortgage now in 2020, the lender will want to see documentation proving what you earned in 2018 and 2019, and they will take a 2-year average.

If your income is lower in 2020 because of the pandemic, once we come to tax time in 2021, your 2-year average will now include that reduction in revenue for the next couple of years, even if you are back to making what you did pre-pandemic. It will be the same case in 2022 (and into 2023), as any lender will want to see your 2-year average between 2020 and 2021. Less income in 2020 could mean qualifying for a lower mortgage amount over the next few years.

The advantage of working with an independent mortgage professional is the ability we have to represent you to several lenders who all offer different products and have different guidelines. So while one lender might be hard and fast on the 2-year average, depending on your industry, another lender might make an exception.

Additionally, depending on where the housing market is at and how much the economy has rebounded in 2021, lenders might consider COVID-19 and be flexible or implement amended guidelines. However, we will have to wait and see on that. But for the most part, if your income is lower because of COVID, it will impact you going forward, feel free to get in touch if you have any questions or hear anything in the news that you'd like clarified.

So what can you do about this today? Well, if you're currently looking to purchase a property or you have a mortgage that's almost up for renewal, or if you'd like to refinance before 2021, it's definitely in your best interest to talk with an independent mortgage professional about all your options as soon as possible.

Alternatively, if you're not looking to secure a mortgage right now, it's always a good idea to have a plan in place for when you do. It never hurts to plan ahead, especially when you have time and can make up some of the lost income with additional income in the future.

If you'd like to discuss your financial situation and see exactly how your income impacts your mortgage qualification, please don't hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime! , We would love to work through everything with you!

Ultra-Low Interest Rates

Tue, 06 Oct 2020 17:34:49 GMT

Chances are if you’ve been paying attention to the news as the Canadian economy continues to work through the COVID-19 pandemic, you’ve heard that interest rates are at an all-time low. And it would appear that they will remain low for a while. In fact, the Bank of Canada recently hinted that they don’t expect rates to go up until at least 2023. That’s good news if you need to borrow money!

So what does this mean for you? Well, if you are borrowing money for really any reason, you’ll most likely be paying lower interest for the foreseeable future, including any secured line of credits, car loans, student loans, and personal loans. As for mortgage financing, you’ve got options!

If you’re an existing variable rate mortgage holder, the prime rate is currently 2.45%. You are paying that, plus or minus a component to prime. The variable rate spread is presently coming down at several lenders, so if you’d like to have a look at your mortgage to see if a refinance makes sense to save you money, please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

If you’re a fixed rate mortgage holder, this means there could be a pretty significant penalty for breaking your existing mortgage. However, depending on the time remaining on your current term, and the rate you are currently paying, it might make sense to break your existing mortgage, pay the penalty, and refinance into a lower rate. There is no cost to run the numbers. If we can save you money in the long term on your mortgage, it might make sense to refinance. Now, depending on the terms of your mortgage, it might make sense to wait a year or two to refinance, but we won’t know that until we look at the details. We are more than happy to provide you with several financial scenarios.

If you’re currently looking to purchase a property and you’re seeking new mortgage financing, you should know that although interest rates are at an all-time low, the government of Canada forces you to qualify at what they call the qualifying rate which is currently 4.79%. So while you can find a five year fixed rate around 2% now, you have to prove that you can afford double that amount in interest. The idea here is that it protects you against a rate hike when your term is complete. Unfortunately, it leaves you qualifying for a considerably lower mortgage amount now.

So is now a good time to refinance or buy? Well, that depends on your financial situation. But there is nothing wrong with taking a look and putting together a mortgage application to assess your situation. We would love to work with you so that you can take advantage of these low interest rates. Please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Mortgage Post Bankruptcy

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 02 Oct 2020 16:21:06 GMT

This should come as no surprise, but sometimes life throws you a financial curveball. Bankruptcy and consumer proposals happen. It doesn't mean your life is over, and it doesn't mean you won't ever qualify for a mortgage again. The key here is to get a plan in place and show that you've got things under control. You must be able demonstrate to anyone considering you for financing that what happened in the past won't happen again in the future.

Mortgage financing post bankruptcy is possible, it's just different than your standard mortgage financing in that the following considerations must be taken into account.

Firstly, financing will be dependent on how long it has been since you were discharged from your bankruptcy, or how long since you completed your consumer proposal. Most lenders consider the discharge date on both to be your new ground zero.
Secondly, financing will be dependent on how you have been re-establishing your credit since your discharge date. Also, how in depth that credit is. A $700 Visa is nice, but a $5000 Line of Credit carries a little more weight.

In order to qualify for mortgage financing with a mainstream lender, they will want to see a minimum of the following before they will give you a mortgage. You must be discharged for at least 2 years, have at least a 5% downpayment from your own resources (although 10% is a safer bet), 2 years of credit established through 2 trade lines with a minimum credit amount of $2500 each, and no late or missed payments. This would be the bare minimum to qualify.

As mortgage professionals, our job is to provide solutions and strategies for our clients. As such we have access to lenders who aren't mainstream. These alternative lenders will consider extending mortgage financing when clients have a larger downpayment. You're looking at 20%-25% downpayment minimum, and the interest rates will be a little higher than mainstream lending. Alternative lending isn't for everyone, but it's a great solution for some, especially those who have gone through a bankruptcy or consumer proposal.

So whether you're looking for a plan to help you qualify for a mortgage with the most favourable terms, or if you need something more immediate. Please don't hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime! . We would love to help outline your financing options and give you a plan so that you can get a mortgage post bankruptcy.

Another Record-Setting Month For Canadian Housing

Tue, 15 Sep 2020 16:15:55 GMT

Canadian Housing Market Sets Record Highs in August

Today's release of August housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed a blockbuster August with both sales and new listings hitting their highest levels in 40 years of data--exceeding the record July activity levels. This continues the rebound in housing that began four months ago.

National home sales rose a further 6.2% on a month-over-month (m-o-m) basis in August, raising them to another new all-time monthly record (see chart below).

Unlike the previous two months in which activity was up right across the country, sales in August were up in about 60% of local markets. Gains were led by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and British Columbia’s Lower Mainland. With ongoing supply shortages in so many parts of Canada, it is interesting to note that the GTA and Lower Mainland also saw a considerable amount of new supply become available in August.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity posted a 33.5% y-o-y gain in August. It was a new record for the month of August, and the sixth-highest monthly sales figure of any month on record. Transactions were up compared to last August in almost all Canadian housing markets.

So far this year, over 340,000 homes have traded hands over the Canadian MLS Systems, which was up 0.8% from the same period in 2019 despite the COVID-19 pandemic-induced recession.

“It has been a record-setting summer in many housing markets across Canada as REALTORS® and their clients play catch up following the loss of so much of the 2020 spring market,” stated Costa Poulopoulos, Chair of CREA. "Many markets dealing with inventory shortages have been seeing fierce competition among buyers this summer; although, that was something that had been anticipated for 2020 prior to COVID-19. It really does seem that the spring market shifted into the summer."

According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA's Senior Economist, "Activity shows signs of moderating in September." e.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes posted a further 10.6% gain in August compared to July. New supply was up in close to three-quarters of local markets, led by gains in the Lower Mainland, GTA and Ottawa.

With the August increase in new supply outpacing the rise in sales for the first time since the rebound began in May, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 69.4% in August compared to 72.3% posted in July. That said, it was still among the highest levels on record for this measure.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, only about a third of all local markets were in balanced market territory, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other two-thirds of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.

There were just 2.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of August 2020 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, a number of Ontario markets are now into weeks of inventory rather than months. So supply constraints are still prevalent in many parts of the country, especially in Ontario.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose by 1.7% m-o-m in August 2020 (see chart and table below). This compares to a 2.3% m-o-m jump in July 2020 – the second largest increase on record (after March 2017) going back 15 years. Of the 21 markets currently tracked by the index, m-o-m gains were posted everywhere but Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 9.4% on a y-o-y basis in August – the biggest gain since late 2017.

The largest y-o-y gains were recorded in Ottawa (+19.9%) and Montreal (+16.4%), followed by increases in the 10% - 15% range in the GTA and surrounding Greater Golden Horseshoe markets. Moncton prices were also up in that range in August.

Prices were fairly flat on a y-o-y basis in Calgary, Edmonton and St. John’s, while climbing in the 3.5% - 5.5% range across B.C.

The MLS® HPI provides the best way to gauge price trends because averages are strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price set another record in August 2020 at more than $586,000, up 18.5% from the same month last year.

Bottom Line

CMHC forecasted back in May that the national average sales prices will fall 9%-to-18% in 2020 and not return to yearend-2019 levels until as late as 2022. Instead, the national average sales price as of August has posted a 18.5% gain.

Housing strength is largely attributable to pent-up demand by households that have maintained their level of income during the pandemic. The hardest-hit households are low-wage earners in the accommodation, food services, and travel sectors. These are the folks that can least afford it and typically are not homeowners.

The good news is that the housing market is contributing to the recovery in economic activity.
________________________________________________________________________
CMHC Annual Residential Mortgage Industry Report

The Residential Mortgage Industry report provides an in-depth view of the residential mortgage market in Canada: from mortgage origination to funding, covering insured and uninsured mortgages, and encompasses activity from all mortgage lender types. It is based on data available at the end of the second quarter of 2020. The following are key highlights:

Mortgage lender type trends

The report shows that in 2019, Canada’s big six banks maintained their strong foothold in the housing finance market, with a 67% market share of newly extended mortgages (see chart below).
Mortgage Finance Companies (MFCs) hold 20% of the insured mortgage space and credit unions stand at 12%.
Mortgage delinquencies of 90 days or more remained at low levels for all mortgage lender types, which suggests that a steady share of mortgage holders continued to be able to make their payments or were able to defer their mortgage payments.
MICs continued to represent 1% in nationwide outstanding mortgages, valued at approximately between $14 billion and $15 billion in mortgage debt.
Some MICs offered mortgage deferrals and other types of accommodations to financially strained mortgage consumers. An estimated 10% of mortgage consumers asked for a mortgage deferral.
Mortgage Funding TrendsDeposits continued to be the primary source of mortgage funding for the big six banks (66%) and credit unions (77%).
Covered bonds made up 17% of total mortgage funding for Canada’s big six banks at the end of the first quarter of 2020, representing an increase of 4% from 2019.
Private securitization continued to account for a very small share of the mortgage funding mix in Canada, with just 1.1%. However, the residential mortgage-backed securities market appears to be expanding.

This article was written by Dr Sherry Cooper, DLC's Chief Economist and was published here with permission.

Bank of Canada Holds Rate At 25 bps

Thu, 10 Sep 2020 15:56:25 GMT

Bank of Canada Relies on Quantitative Easing

As promised, the Bank held its target overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 25 basis points with the clear notion that negative policy rates are not in the cards. Instead, the central bank will rely on large-scale asset purchases--quantitative easing (QE--of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. QE adds liquidity to the financial system and keeps market yields low. The Bank began aggressive QE with the beginning of the pandemic and will not cease until the economy has recovered, and inflation is sustainably at 2%. This could be years away, as for example, Ontario has paused reopening plans with the virus numbers ticking up. Many public health officials are expecting infections to rise with the opening of schools and the turn to colder weather. The government is preparing for a possible second wave. Policymakers, however, have dialled back language on more aggressive action.

The Bank has stated, "Both the global and Canadian economies are evolving broadly in line with the scenario in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with activity bouncing back as countries lift containment measures. The Bank continues to expect this strong reopening phase to be followed by a protracted and uneven recuperation phase, which will be heavily reliant on policy support. The pace of the recovery remains highly dependent on the path of the COVID-19 pandemic and the evolution of social distancing measures required to contain its spread."

In Canada, real GDP fell by 11.5% (39% annualized) in the second quarter, resulting in a decline of just over 13% in the first half of the year, mainly in line with the Bank's July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) central scenario. All components of aggregate demand weakened, as expected. Global financial conditions have remained accommodative. Although prices for some commodities have firmed, oil prices remain weak.

As the economy reopens, the bounce-back in activity in the third quarter looks to be faster than anticipated in July. Economic activity has been supported by government programs to replace incomes and subsidize wages. Core funding markets are functioning well, and this has led to a decline in the use of the Bank's short-term liquidity programs. Monetary policy is working to support household spending and business investment by making borrowing more affordable.

Housing activity has been particularly robust with substantial existing home sales in July and August. With record-low mortgage rates, buyers are satisfying their demand for more space and for moving further from city-center congestion. This urban exodus is more than anecdotal. You can get more for your money, and with many people working from home, long commutes don't seem to be as relevant. The chart below shows that the outer suburbs of Toronto have seen the most significant increase in sales since the market picked up in early June.

Also, the construction of new homes surged to the highest level in more than a decade in August following a sharp increase in July. The greatest strength was in Toronto and Vancouver, particularly in multiple units.

Household spending rebounded sharply over the summer, with stronger-than-expected goods consumption and housing activity. There has also been a large but uneven rebound in employment. Exports are recovering in response to strengthening foreign demand, but are still well below pre-pandemic levels. Business confidence and investment remain subdued. While recent data during the reopening phase is encouraging, the Bank continues to expect the recuperation phase to be slow and choppy as the economy copes with ongoing uncertainty and structural challenges.

CPI inflation is close to zero, with downward pressure from energy prices and travel services, and is expected to remain well below target in the near term. Measures of core inflation are between 1.3% and 1.9%, reflecting the large degree of economic slack, with the core measure most influenced by services prices showing the weakest growth.

Bottom Line

The Bank also suggested that "as the economy moves from reopening to recuperation, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank is continuing its large-scale asset purchase program at the current pace. This QE program will continue until the recovery is well underway and will be calibrated to provide the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective."

The next policy meeting will be held on October 28 when the Bank will release its new forecast in the MPR. A rate hike is unlikely this year or in 2021.

This article was written by Dr Sherry Cooper, DLC's Chief Economist.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Sept 9th, 2020

Wed, 09 Sep 2020 14:05:26 GMT

Bank of Canada maintains commitment to current level of policy rate, continues program of quantitative easing.

Both the global and Canadian economies are evolving broadly in line with the scenario in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with activity bouncing back as countries lift containment measures. The Bank continues to expect this strong reopening phase to be followed by a protracted and uneven recuperation phase, which will be heavily reliant on policy support. The pace of the recovery remains highly dependent on the path of the COVID-19 pandemic and the evolution of social distancing measures required to contain its spread.

The rebound in the United States has been stronger than expected, while economic performance among emerging markets has been more mixed. Global financial conditions have remained accommodative. Although prices for some commodities have firmed, oil prices remain weak.

In Canada, real GDP fell by 11.5 percent (39 percent annualized) in the second quarter, resulting in a decline of just over 13 percent in the first half of the year, largely in line with the Bank’s July MPR central scenario. All components of aggregate demand weakened, as expected.

As the economy reopens, the bounce-back in activity in the third quarter looks to be faster than anticipated in July. Economic activity has been supported by government programs to replace incomes and subsidize wages. Core funding markets are functioning well, and this has led to a decline in the use of the Bank’s short-term liquidity programs. Monetary policy is working to support household spending and business investment by making borrowing more affordable.

Household spending rebounded sharply over the summer, with stronger-than-expected goods consumption and housing activity largely reflecting pent-up demand. There has also been a large but uneven rebound in employment. Exports are recovering in response to strengthening foreign demand, but are still well below pre-pandemic levels. Business confidence and investment remain subdued. While recent data during the reopening phase is encouraging, the Bank continues to expect the recuperation phase to be slow and choppy as the economy copes with ongoing uncertainty and structural challenges.

CPI inflation is close to zero, with downward pressure from energy prices and travel services, and is expected to remain well below target in the near term. Measures of core inflation are between 1.3 percent and 1.9 percent, reflecting the large degree of economic slack, with the core measure most influenced by services prices showing the weakest growth.

As the economy moves from reopening to recuperation, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank is continuing its large-scale asset purchase program at the current pace. This QE program will continue until the recovery is well underway and will be calibrated to provide the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 28, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

Strong August Jobs Report in Canada

Mon, 07 Sep 2020 18:02:04 GMT

Canada Has Recouped Two-Thirds Of Pandemic Job Losses

The August Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Statistics Canada, reflects labour market conditions as of the week of August 9 to 15, five months after the onset of the COVID-19 economic shutdown. By mid-August, public health restrictions had substantially eased across the country and more businesses and workplaces had re-opened.

Employment rebounded in August by 246,000 net new jobs, a slowdown from the 419,000 gain in July and June's 953,000 rise. This slowdown was expected with the initial recovery boost from easing containment measures in the spring fading through the summer.

The great news is that 84% of the headline jobs gain in August was in full-time positions. This follows the surge in part-time jobs in July. Full-time employment stood at 93.9% of pre-pandemic levels in August, compared with 96.1% for part-time work. In the months prior to the COVID-19 economic shutdown, full-time employment had reached record highs, while growth in part-time work was relatively flat. Compared with 12 months earlier, full-time employment was down 5.4% in August, while part-time work decreased by 5.1%. And an elevated share of those working part-time is doing so despite preferring full-time work. Hours worked increased more than employment in August--but are still down more relative to pre-shock February levels (-8.6%) than the headline employment count (-5.7%).

The August job growth brought employment to within 1.1 million of its pre-COVID February level, thereby recouping two-thirds of all the lost jobs.

The number of Canadians who were employed but worked less than half their usual hours for reasons likely related to COVID-19 fell by 259,000 (-14.6%) in August. Combined with declines in May, June and July, this left COVID-related absences from work at 713,000 (+88.3%) above February levels.

As of the week of August 9 to 15, the total number of Canadian workers affected by the COVID-19 economic shutdown stood at 1.8 million. In April, this number reached a peak of 5.5 million, including a 3.0 million drop in employment and a 2.5 million increase in COVID-related absences from work.

The number of Canadians working from home declined for the fourth consecutive month. In April, at the height of the COVID-19 economic shutdown, 3.4 million Canadians who worked their usual hours had adjusted to public health restrictions by beginning to work from home. This number has fallen each month since May when the gradual easing of public health restrictions began and reached 2.5 million in August.

Among Canadians who worked their usual hours in August, the total number working from home fell by nearly 300,000 compared with July, while the number working at locations other than home increased by almost 400,000.

The Jobless Rate Continued to Fall in August

The unemployment rate fell 0.7 percentage points to 10.2% in August. As a result of the COVID-19 economic shutdown, the unemployment rate had surged from 5.6% in February to a record high of 13.7% in May. By way of comparison, during the 2008/2009 recession, the unemployment rate rose from 6.2% in October 2008 and reached a peak of 8.7% in June 2009. It took approximately nine years before it returned to its pre-recession rate.

The unemployment rate fell most sharply in August among core-aged women aged 25 to 54 years old, down 1.2 percentage points to 7.5%, the lowest unemployment rate among all major groups. This decline was largely due to employment increases, as overall labour force participation was unchanged from July. The unemployment rate for core-aged men fell 0.7 percentage points to 8.1%, also the result of increased employment, with little change in their labour market participation.

Employment gains in the services sector continued to outpace that of the goods-producing sector. Employment growth in the services sector was driven by gains in educational services, accommodation and food services and the "other services" industry. In the goods sector, gains in manufacturing were partially offset by declines in natural resources.

Accommodation and food services as well as retail trade were among the industries hardest hit by the initial COVID-19 economic shutdown. By April, employment had fallen to half (-50.0%) of its pre-pandemic level in accommodation and food services and to 77.1% of its pre-COVID-19 level in retail trade. Starting in May, employment rebounded in both sectors as many provinces began reopening their economy.

Employment growth in accommodation and food services rose by 18.4% per month on average from May to July. In August, however, the pace of growth in the industry slowed to 5.3% (+49,000). Despite these recent gains, employment in accommodation and food services was at 78.9% of its February level. August marked the fifth full month of international travel restrictions, which continues to affect industries with strong ties to tourism.

The number of people employed in retail trade edged up 0.7% (+14,000) in August, following average monthly increases of 6.3% over the previous three months. Employment in retail trade reached 93.4% of its pre-COVID-19 level but fell just below the rate of recovery for total employment (94.3%).

While employment remained below pre-COVID-19 levels, retail sales in June were higher than in February and are expected to continue to rise in July, based on preliminary estimates. This highlights potential structural changes within the industry as employers have been able to increase their sales despite a smaller workforce.

Employment Increased in Most Provinces in August--Led by Ontario and Quebec

Employment in Ontario rose by 142,000 in August (+2.0%), nearly all in full-time work, while the unemployment rate fell by 0.7 percentage points to 10.6%. Combined with the employment increases in June and July (+529,000), the gains in August brought employment in Ontario to within 93.6% of its pre-pandemic level.

In the census metro area (CMA) of Toronto, employment increased by 121,000 (+3.8%), nearly double the growth rate of the province, and reached 93.3% of its pre-pandemic level.

In Quebec, employment increased by 54,000 (+1.3%) in August, building on gains of 576,000 over the previous three months, and bringing employment in the province to within 95.7% of its pre-COVID level.

In the Montréal CMA, employment grew by 38,000 (+1.8%) in August and reached 96.0% of its pre-pandemic level.

Employment rose in most Western provinces in August. British Columbia reported the largest increase, up 15,000 (+0.6%). Employment reached 94.1% of its February level and the unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points to 10.7%.

While employment in Alberta was little changed, the unemployment rate declined by a full percentage point to 11.8% as fewer people looked for work.

In Atlantic Canada, Nova Scotia had the largest employment gain in August, up 7,200 (+1.6%), mostly in part-time work. The unemployment rate was little changed at 10.3%, as more Nova Scotians participated in the labour market. After notable increases in May and June, employment in New Brunswick held steady for the second consecutive month.

Bottom Line

This was still a relatively strong employment report even though job gains have slowed. Canada's employment recovery has outpaced the US, recouping two-thirds of the lost jobs compared to only a 50% gain south of the border. The hardest-hit has been both low-wage workers and youth, which helps to explain why housing activity has been so strong. Low-wage employees and youth are typically not homebuyers or sellers. Moreover, consumer spending in Canada has solidified very near to pre-COVID levels. Spending on entertainment, dining and self-care has risen recently as more businesses open up and is now approaching year-ago levels. Total credit or debit card spending is up about 5% relative to the same time last year. Canadians are venturing out more around their home towns, but not going much further.

According to RBC :

"While online spending remained prevalent in some areas (e.g., groceries), in-person transactions continued to recover.
Spending indicates Canadians were comfortable going out to dinner, even if to a patio. Restaurant spending was buoyed by Canadians seeking in-person dining experiences and was down just over 4% from last year’s level.
The share of online transactions at restaurants decreased to 17% from one-third at its post-crisis peak.
Health and self-care spending increased through mid-August, as gym reopenings led to an uptick in fitness spending.
Entertainment spending picked up further into August and was down 10% relative to last year.
Spending was supported by still-strong spending on golf and to a lesser degree digital goods.
More recently, Canadians began spending again on professional sports, lotteries, hobbies, and local attractions."

Recent data from the local real estate boards in Toronto and Vancouver showed strong sales activity and significant further upward pressure on prices. The CREA data for the whole country will be out on the 15th of September. This adjusts the price data for types of homes sold, giving us a better idea of how significant price pressures have been.

Canadian Q2 GDP Growth Plunge--Rebounds Since April

Tue, 01 Sep 2020 18:12:57 GMT

Canadian Economy Took a Record Nosedive in Q2

Canadian real GDP plunged 11.5% in the second quarter, or -38.7% at an annualized rate, the worst quarterly decline on record (see chart below). This followed an 8.2% plunge in Q1. The worst of the contraction occurred early in the quarter as the lockdown in March and April wreaked havoc on activity. Since then, the economy has shown surprisingly strong signs of recovery.

StatsCan revealed today that GDP rose 6.5% in June following the 4.8% rise in May and an estimated 3.0% growth in July. Even so, Canada's recovery is expected to be bumpy and long. No doubt, not all businesses and sectors will expand in sync, and not all jobs will be recovered.

One of the brightest spots in the recovery has been housing, where activity surged in July, reflective of record-low mortgage rates and pent-up demand. Apparently, many homebound Canadians are reassessing their housing needs. Demand for increased space, especially in the suburbs or exurbs, has been robust.

Virtually every sector of the economy was battered in Q2. Household spending dived 43% while business investment collapsed at a 57% annual rate. Virus containment weighed on both, with a fall in oil prices exacerbating the decline in oil & gas investment. Net exports were the only sector that added to economic activity, but only because imports fell more than exports as housebound consumers and shuttered businesses had little need for imported products.

On a year-over-year basis, the monthly rise in June and July will leave GDP down a much milder 5%, but still worse than the -4.7% drop during the financial crisis. The surge in June--itself a record bounce--reflects the gradual re-opening of the economy, with retail, wholesale and manufacturing leading the way. Retail trade jumped 22.3% in June, surpassing its pre-pandemic level of activity. Motor vehicle dealers contributed most to growth.

Following a 17.3% jump in May, the construction sector rose 9.4% in June as a continued easing of emergency restrictions across the country contributed to the return to nearly normal levels of activity at construction sites. Residential construction grew 7.1% as increases in multi-unit dwellings construction and home alterations and improvements more than offset lower single-unit construction. Non-residential construction rose 11.0%, surpassing the pre-pandemic level of activity, as all three components were up.

Real estate and rental and leasing grew 2.5% in June. Activity at the offices of real estate agents and brokers jumped 65.2% in the month, following a 56.4% increase in May, as home resale activity in all major urban centres saw double-digit increases. The output of real estate agents and brokers was about 7% below February's pre-pandemic level, but other data show it was up sharply in July, hitting new record highs.

Government Provided A Much-Needed Cushion

Household disposable income surged last quarter despite the pandemic thanks to government income support (see chart below). The rise in income, coupled with the massive decline in consumer spending as well as the deferral of mortgage payments for many triggered a surge in the savings rate. The household saving rate jumped to 28.2% from 7.6% in the prior quarter. Savings rates, of course, are generally higher for higher income brackets.

Bottom Line

The plunge in economic activity in the second quarter--though awful--was not as deep as the Bank of Canada expected (-43%) in its most recent Monetary Policy Report. As well, the rebound since the end of April has been stronger than expected, especially in the housing sector. To be sure, labour market conditions are still very soft with the jobless rate at 10.9% in July, but the new programs announced last week by the federal government to replace CERB will help ease the transition for people still looking for work.

A possible resurgence in the virus remains a risk unless an effective vaccine can be distributed. The economy will operate below capacity into the next year, but perhaps not as drastically below capacity as previously feared.

Canadian Housing Market Very Strong in July

Mon, 17 Aug 2020 18:26:36 GMT

Today's release of July housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed a blockbuster July with both sales and new listings hitting their highest levels in 40 years of data. This continues the rebound in housing that began three months ago.

National home sales rose 26% month-over-month (m-o-m) in July, which translates to a 30.5% gain from a year ago (see chart below). July's sales activity was the strongest for any month in history. According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA's Senior Economist, “A big part of what we’re seeing right now is the snapback in activity that would have otherwise happened earlier this year. Recall that before the lockdowns, we were heading into the tightest spring market in almost 20 years. Things may have gone quiet for a few months, but ultimately the market we’re seeing right now is mostly the same one we were heading into back in March. That said, there are some new factors at play as well. There are listings that will come to the market because of COVID-19, but many properties are also not being listed right now due to the virus, as evidenced by inventories that are currently at a 16-year low. Some purchases will no doubt be delayed, but the new-found importance of home, lack of a daily commute for many, a desire for more outdoor and personal space, room for a home office, etc. will certainly also spur activity that otherwise would not have happened in a non-COVID-19 world.”

For the third month in a row, transactions were up on a month-over-month basis across the country. Among Canada’s largest markets, sales rose by 49.5% in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), 43.9% in Greater Vancouver, 39.1% in Montreal, 36.6% in the Fraser Valley, 31.8% in Hamilton-Burlington, 28.7% in Ottawa, 16.9% in London and St. Thomas, 15.7% in Calgary, 12.1% in Winnipeg, 9.7% in Edmonton and 5.4% in Quebec City.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes climbed by another 7.6% in July compared to June, to a level of 71,879--the highest level for any July in history. New supply was only up in about 60% of local markets, as the rebound in supply appears to be tapering off in many parts of the country. The national increase in July was dominated by gains in the GTA. More supply is expected to come on the market in future months, particularly once a vaccine is widely available.

With the ongoing rebound in sales activity now far outpacing the recovery in new supply, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 73.9% in July compared to 63.1% posted in June. It was one of the highest levels on record for this measure, behind just a few months back in late 2001 and early 2002.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratios with long-term averages, only about a third of all local markets were in balanced market territory, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average, in July 2020. The other two-thirds of markets were all above long-term norms, in many cases well above.

Housing markets are very tight, especially in Ontario, as demand has far outpaced supply. There were just 2.8 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of July 2020 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, a number of Ontario markets shifted from months of inventory to weeks of inventory in July.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) jumped by 2.3% m-o-m in July 2020 – the second largest increase on record (after March 2017) going back 15 years. (see Table below). Of the 20 markets currently tracked by the index, they all posted m-o-m increases in July.

The biggest m-o-m gains, in the range of 3%, were recorded in the GTA outside of the city of Toronto, Guelph, Ottawa and Montreal; although, generally speaking, most markets east of Saskatchewan are seeing prices accelerate in line with strong sales numbers. Price gains were more modestly positive in B.C. and Alberta.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 7.4% on a y-o-y basis in July the biggest gain since late 2017.

The MLS® HPI provides the best way to gauge price trends because averages are strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in July 2020 was a record $571,500, up 14.3% from the same month last year.

The national average price is heavily influenced by sales in the Greater Vancouver and the GTA, two of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations cuts around $117,000 from the national average price. The extent to which sales continue to fluctuate in these two markets relative to others could have further compositional effects on the national average price, both up and down.

Bottom Line

CMHC has recently forecast that national average sales prices will fall 9%-to-18% in 2020 and not return to yearend-2019 levels until as late as 2022. I continue to believe that this forecast is overly pessimistic. Here we are in the second half of 2020, and the national average sales price has risen 14.3% year-over-year.

The good news is that the housing market is contributing to the recovery in economic activity. While the course of the virus is uncertain, Canada's government has handled the COVID-19 situation very well from both a public health and a fiscal and monetary perspective. The future course of the economy here will depend on the virus. While no one knows what that will be, suffice it to say that Canada's economy is en route to a full recovery, but it may well be a long and bumpy one.

COVID Supercharges Canadian Housing. Yet CMHC Still Gloomy

Thu, 13 Aug 2020 17:38:19 GMT

Pandemic Triggers Red-Hot Summer Housing Market

We will get the full story on July housing in Canada when the Canadian Real Estate Association releases its July data in the next few days, but local real estate boards have reported a robust July market. Even in Calgary, year-over-year sales have jumped by double digits. Sales in Montreal were up more than 45% y-o-y, while Ottawa and the GTA were also very strong. Out west, Vancouver and other hot spots in BC saw the results of pent up activity, from both homebuyers and sellers, that had been accumulating over the past year.

Remember, had it not been for the pandemic, a record spring sales season was in the cards. The lockdown postponed that strength, with sales jumping sharply in May, June and July. Supply continues to remain limited relative to demand, and the Bank of Canada is looking towards housing as a leading sector in the recovery.

Record-low interest rates have boosted affordability everywhere. The Bank of Canada has made it clear that interest rates will remain low for an extended period. Mortgage rates have fallen, as have interest rates on home equity lines of credit. Even five of the Big Six banks have cut their advertised 5-year fixed mortgage rates (posted rates) by about 15 basis points to 4.79%.

These rates have been very sticky on the downside, as banks are reluctant to cut posted rates, which are is used to calculate the penalty for breaking a mortgage. Indeed, the gap between the posted rate and the 5-year government of Canada bond yield is historically wide. So is the gap between posted rates and actual contract mortgage rates at the very same banks.

The Bank of Canada posted rate is the qualifying rate for the mortgage stress test for insured and uninsured mortgages at the federally-regulated lenders--the so-called B-20 rule. That qualifying rate is set to fall from its current level of 4.94% to 4.79% later today when the central bank is due to update its figure.

Last February, following months of pressure from the real estate industry, the Department of Finance and the federal banking regulator announced they would rejig the "floor" of stress tests that borrowers must pass to qualify for insured and uninsured home loans. Then came COVID-19, and a sweeping government rescue that included regulatory relief for lenders. As part of the response, the change to the stress test, which was planned for April, was suspended indefinitely.

Last month, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions announced it would "gradually restart" policy work in the fall. Still, it made no mention of resuming consultations on the change to its stress test for uninsured mortgages, a vital component of the regulator's B-20 guideline. If the new rules had been implemented, it is estimated that the qualifying rate floor would be roughly 4.09% rather than the new rate of 4.79%.

Several factors, in addition to low interest rates, have contributed to the housing market surge. Having spent so many months working from home, many people are looking for more space. With a significant number of businesses announcing that telecommuting will be the new normal, at least most of the time, buyers are moving to more remote suburban locations where their dollars buy more space. This has been reflected in the slowdown in the condo market. This is not just a Canadian phenomenon but is evident in the US and parts of Europe as well.

Despite the surprising strength in homebuying during COVID, CMHC continues to blast warnings.

CMHC Wants To Expose The "Dark Economic Underbelly"

Yesterday, Evan Siddall, the CEO at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp, published an August 10 letter to the financial industry imploring lenders to "reconsider" offering mortgages to highly leveraged households, saying excessive borrowing will worsen the pain of the coming economic adjustment. Evan Siddall said the Crown corporation had lost market share due to restrictions it imposed on high-risk borrowers earlier this summer. Private mortgage insurers have picked up that business, weakening CMHC's position and threatening the agency's ability to protect the mortgage market in the event of a crisis, he said.

CMHC continues to project that house prices will fall later this year, and next, "once government income supports unwind, bankruptcies increase and unemployment starts to bite." A highlighted sentence in the letter says, "We don't think our national mortgage insurance regime should be used to help people buy homes with negative equity. But by offering 95 percent loan-to-value mortgages subject to a 4 percent capitalized insurance fee in the midst of an economic calamity, that's what insurance providers are doing." Siddall, who steps down from his position at the end of the year, goes on to say that we risk exposing too many people to foreclosure.

CMHC announced in June it would narrow eligibility criteria to require higher credit scores and lower debt burdens to qualify for a mortgage. The move, which took effect on July 1, was intended to protect new home buyers from falling prices and reduce taxpayer risk to any market correction.

" We have sustained a reduction in our market share to promote a more competitive marketplace for your benefit,” Siddall said in the letter. “However, we are approaching a level of minimum market share that we require to be able to protect the mortgage market in times of crisis. We require your support to prevent further erosion of our market presence.”

CMHC’s private-sector competitors, Genworth MI Canada Inc. and Canada Guaranty Mortgage Insurance Co., opted not to follow along with the rule changes and have increased their market share, as a result, said Siddall.

Siddall concluded with two requests for lenders: “We would hope you would reconsider highly leveraged household lending. Please put our country’s long-term outlook ahead of short-term profitability. Second, please don’t aggravate the impact by undermining CMHC’s market presence unnecessarily.”

CMHC’s ability to respond effectively in a crisis will be weakened if its market share deteriorates significantly further, he said. “If you want us in wartime, please support us in peacetime.”

This article was written by Dr Sherry Cooper, DLC's chief economist.

Better-Than-Expected Canadian Jobs Report in July

Mon, 10 Aug 2020 17:57:28 GMT

The July Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Statistics Canada, reflects labour market conditions as of the week of July 12 to 18. Although public health restrictions had been substantially eased in most parts of the country—with the exception of some regions of Ontario, including Toronto—some measures remained in place, including physical distancing requirements and restrictions on large gatherings.

From February to April, 5.5 million Canadian workers--30% of the workforce--were affected by the COVID-19 economic shutdown. This included a drop in employment of 3.0 million and a COVID-related increase in absences from work of 2.5 million. Today's jobs report showed that total employment rose by 418,500 (+2.4%). This is on the heels of a 953,000 (5.8%) gain in June and 290,000 in May. Altogether, this brought employment to within 1.3 million (-7.0%) of its pre-COVID February level.

The number of Canadians who were employed but worked less than half their usual hours for reasons likely virus-related dropped by 412,000 (-18.8%) in July. Combined with declines recorded in May and June, this left COVID-related absences from work at just under 1 million (+972,000; +120.3%) above February levels.

By the week of July 12 to July 18, the total number of affected workers stood at 2.3 million, a reduction since April of 58.0%.

Most employment gains in July were in part-time work

Most of the employment gains in July were in part-time work, which increased by 345,000 (+11.3%), compared with a much smaller increase of 73,000 (+0.5%) in full-time work.

The COVID-19 labour market shock was felt particularly hard in part-time work. From February to April, losses in part-time work (-29.6%) were significantly heavier than in full-time employment (-12.5%). This was due to a number of factors, including part-time work being more prevalent in industries that were most affected by the COVID-19 economic shutdown, namely retail trade and accommodation and food services.

Growth in part-time employment has outpaced full-time growth in each of the past three months. With July gains, part-time work is now closer to its pre-COVID level (-5.0%) than full-time employment (-7.5%).

The relatively flat growth in full-time work in recent months is reflected in an increase in the proportion of part-time workers doing so involuntarily. In July 2019, 22.2% of those working less than 30 hours per week would have preferred full-time work. One year later, this proportion had increased 7.6 percentage points to 29.7%, an indication that the COVID-19 economic shutdown and subsequent re-opening has resulted in a reduction, at least temporarily, in the number of hours being offered by employers.

Stronger employment gains for women in July, but men continue to be closer to pre-shutdown levels

In July, employment rose faster among women (+3.4% or +275,000) than men (+1.5% or +144,000). Due to heavier employment losses among women in March, however, employment in July was closer to its pre-shutdown level for men than for women.

Employment was little changed in July among both male and female core-aged workers with children under 18. As in June, employment in July was furthest away from pre-shutdown levels among mothers whose youngest child was aged 6 to 17.

The number of Canadians working from home continued to fall in July

Among those who were employed and not absent from work, the number working from home dropped by 400,000, compared with an increase of 300,000 in the number working at locations other than home. Despite this decline, the number of Canadians who worked from home in July (4.6 million) remained significantly higher than the number who usually do so (1.6 million).

The pace of improvement from July on is likely to continue to slow. Compared to February, there were still 274,000 fewer people working in goods production jobs in July. There were still 309,000 fewer workers in accommodation and food services, 109,000 fewer in information, culture, and recreation, over that period - and those services jobs will probably be slower to return with households still sticking closer to home. The recovery in the goods-producing side of the economy will be limited at some point by ongoing weakness in the oil & gas sector.

U nemployment Rate Continues to Drop From May's Record High

The unemployment rate was 10.9% in July, falling 1.4 percentage points for the second consecutive month and down from a record high of 13.7% in May. The unemployment rate was 5.6% in February.

The number of unemployed people fell for the second consecutive month in July, down 269,000 (-11.0%). Despite this decrease, almost 2.2 million Canadians were unemployed in July, nearly twice as many (+92.6%) as in February (1.1 million).

In July, temporary layoffs declined sharply for a second consecutive month, down 384,000 (-45.5%). Among those on temporary layoff in June, approximately half became employed in July, either returning to their old job or starting a new one (not seasonally adjusted). Despite the sharp declines in June and July, the number of people on temporary layoff (460,000) was more than four times higher than it was in February.

In July, the number of people searching for work increased 115,000 (+7.1%), mainly the result of people entering the labour force to look for work.

Employment Increases in Most Provinces in July--Led by Ontario and Quebec

In Ontario, employment rose by 151,000 (+2.2%) in July, building on an increase of 378,000 in June and bringing jobs to 91.7% of its pre-pandemic February level. The initial easing of COVID-19 restrictions occurred later in Ontario than in most other provinces. Additional easing was introduced in most regions of the province on July 17, at the end of the survey week.

Employment in the census metropolitan area of Toronto increased by 2.2% in July. This was the same rate of increase as the province, despite the loosening of the COVID-19 restrictions occurring later in the provincial capital than in most other regions. Employment in Toronto reached 89.9% of its February level.

Employment in Quebec increased by 98,000 (+2.4%) in July, adding to gains in the previous two months and bringing employment to 94.4% of its pre-COVID level. The increase in employment in July was all in part-time work. The unemployment rate decreased 1.2 percentage points to 9.5%, the third consecutive monthly decrease.

Employment rose more slowly in Montréal (+28,000; +1.3%) than in the rest of Quebec and reached 94.4% of its February level.

The number of employed British Columbians increased by 70,000 (+3.0%) in July, reaching 93.5% of the February employment level. The unemployment rate fell by 1.9 percentage points to 11.1%.

In Vancouver, employment increased by 48,000 (+3.8%) to reach 89.9% of the February level, a degree of recovery lower than the province as a whole.

In Alberta, employment increased by 67,000 (+3.2%) in July, including gains in both full-time and part-time work. The unemployment rate for the province fell by 2.7 percentage points in July to 12.8%, the first decline since the COVID-19 economic shutdown.

In Saskatchewan, employment rose by 13,000 (+2.5%), while the unemployment rate fell 2.8 percentage points to 8.8%.

Employment in Manitoba increased (+12,000) for the third consecutive month, and the unemployment rate declined by 1.9 percentage points to 8.2%.

Employment in Newfoundland and Labrador increased by 4,300 (+2.1%) in July, and the unemployment rate dropped 0.9 percentage points to 15.6%.

In Nova Scotia, employment rose by 3,400 (+0.8%) in July, reaching 92.7% of its February level. The unemployment rate in the province declined by 2.2 percentage points to 10.8%.

Employment in Prince Edward Island rose by 1,100 in July (+1.5%), adding to the gains in the previous two months. The unemployment rate declined by 3.5 percentage points to 11.7%.

In New Brunswick, employment was little changed in July after recording employment gains of 39,000 from April to June. Employment in the province—which was among the first to begin easing COVID-19 restrictions—was at 96.6% of its pre-COVID February level, the most complete employment recovery of all provinces to date.

Bottom Line

This was a strong jobs report, but the low-hanging fruit has already been picked. Undoubtedly, Canada's economy is still digging itself out of a deep hole, and some jobs are gone for good. Accommodation and food services are still hard hit, as is leisure and entertainment.

Many small and some large businesses will not survive. But new sectors are proliferating as the pandemic accelerated the technological forces that were already in train. I expect to see strong job growth in the following new and burgeoning areas: telemedicine, big data, artificial intelligence, cloud services, cybersecurity, 5G, driverless transportation and clean energy. Online shopping will also continue to proliferate as Canadians have learned to use delivery services and online retail.

Unfortunately, those who can afford it least were hardest hit in the pandemic-shutdown. Many of the lost jobs will not return.

Canada has done an excellent job of flattening the pandemic curve, but as evidenced by what is happening in the US, we cannot let our guard down. As many students return to the classroom, the risk of disease spread will undoubtedly rise. Also, we have no idea what colder weather will bring or when a vaccine will be widely available. We must continue to prepare for the worst but hope for the best. In the meantime, our economy is proving its underlying resilience, and our government policies are cushioning the blow to those that are suffering the most.

South of the Border--US COVID Situation Is A Disaster

Nearly every country has struggled with the pandemic and made mistakes along the way. But the US stands alone among affluent countries in the failure of its pandemic response. In the past month, about 1.9 million Americans have tested positive for the virus. That's more than five times as many as in all of Europe, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Australia, combined.

"Even though some of these countries saw worrying new outbreaks over the past month, including 50,000 new cases in Spain ... the outbreaks still pale in comparison to those in the United States. Florida, with a population less than half of Spain, has reported nearly 300,000 cases in the same period," wrote David Leonhardt of the New York Times yesterday.

Moreover, the end of July saw the expiration of the $600/week federal top-up of unemployment benefits, which to-date has been successful at providing a floor for household income, and subsequently helps boost household spending. As well, the prohibition of eviction has ended as Congress continues to wrangle on a new relief package.

Larry Kudlow, the administration's chief economist, declared last week that a "V-shaped recovery" was still on track. There is no way that will be possible given the suspension or reduction in federal assistance, the rapidly depleting funds of the state and local governments who are, by law, not allowed to run budget deficits, and the continued surge in the disease.

Today's July jobs report in the US showed the economic rebound was still making headway as payrolls increased by 1.76 million in July, beating economists estimates. The unemployment rate fell to 10.2%, while a broader gauge of joblessness also declined to 16.5%.

The path forward for the US will remain quite difficult as businesses use up the last of their federal loans and reduced unemployment benefits pressure consumer spending. The rebound in the US economy is fragile, as high-frequency data continue to indicate. For the week of July 31st, new COVID cases continue to worsen. Some states have had to halt or even backpedal reopening plans; same-store sales are falling, as are restaurant bookings, electricity demand, airline tickets and public transit ridership.

At the time of this writing, the latest headlines are screaming that "US Virus Aid Talks Are On the Brink of Collapse," as Trump mulls over an executive order on some jobless aid. American consumer confidence can't help but be badly battered by such incompetence, as the world looks on in utter disbelief.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC's Chief Economist.

Do You Need Time For Your Retirement Investments To Recover?

Wed, 05 Aug 2020 19:43:35 GMT

COVID-19 is wreaking havoc on retirement investments, particularly for those who rely on dividends as part of their income. Over the past decade, many older Canadians have taken a riskier approach with retirement investments because of low bond yields and interest rates caused by the financial crisis in 2008.

Instead of playing it safe, many retirees have turned to the stock market for better returns and dividend income. With global markets in a highly volatile state due to the pandemic, right now it is challenging to move investments to safer ground, and many companies have put dividend payments on hold.

If you need immediate cash to ride out the remainder of the pandemic, you may think you need to liquidate some investments. But what if there were other options that can provide the much-needed cash without taking investment losses? Consider borrowing from your home equity instead of liquidating investments prematurely. Here’s why this makes sense.

Take advantage of low interest rates

Uncertainty in the economy has caused the government to lower interest rates. Mortgage rates are at historic lows, and borrowing money at this point in time doesn’t cost a lot. By gaining access to your home equity through mortgage financing, you can somewhat bridge the gap. You can increase your cash flow until the markets, economy, and your investment portfolio recover.

Historically, stock markets have always recovered.

Bloomberg’s Canadian retirement expert Dale Jackson explains, “The S&P 500 lost half its value between October 2007 when the meltdown began and its March 2009 bottom. By October 2013, the S&P 500 topped its pre-meltdown high and has since doubled from there (pre-pandemic). It wasn’t until June 2014 that the TSX topped its pre-meltdown high. It has since rallied an additional 20 per cent (pre-pandemic).”

If the markets recovered both the Great Depression and Great Recession, there’s little reason to fear it won’t happen post-pandemic. The timing of the recovery, however, is uncertain.

Strategically tapping into home equity

You may be reluctant to use home equity to provide for living expenses until the post-pandemic economy recovers. And that is understandable. You worked hard to pay off your mortgage, why would you want a new one?

Well, if you’re faced with the choice of selling investments at a loss, or borrowing against your home equity to give yourself time to bridge the current cash flow gap and allow your investments to recover, it really becomes a matter of calculating the dollars and cents.

This is where expert financial planning comes in. You should be considering ALL your options, not just the ones we’ve been conditioned to consider over the years.

Unfortunately, there is no guidebook for navigating a global pandemic. However, there are options you can consider, now is a good time to consider them.

Reverse Mortgage

If you’re 55+ and occupying your home as your primary residence, you should seriously consider a reverse mortgage. It’s the ultimate mortgage deferral option.

You’ve likely seen commercial ads for reverse mortgages. And while some people think this is a risky way to access funds, if you intend to live in your home throughout your retirement years, it can be an inexpensive source of funds. Especially given our current low-rate environment.

One common misconception is that the bank owns your home if you get a reverse mortgage. This just simply isn’t true. A reverse mortgage is like any other mortgage, however, instead of making regular payments, the mortgage amount increases each year and is due when you choose to sell your house.

Other mortgage options

If you’ve got a steady pension income, you may be able to qualify for conventional mortgage financing. However, if you’re still paying off your first mortgage, you can apply for a second mortgage based on the remaining equity in your home.

It should be noted that a second mortgage is a high-risk option with significantly higher interest rates. If you’re cash-strapped already and are having trouble making payments on your first mortgage, there’s no benefit gained by adding a second payment.

Another option to consider is a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC), which operates much like a bank overdraft. It’s a pool of funds attached to your home that can be used when cash flow is low and paid back when cash flow improves. Interest rates are typically low because the line of credit is secured by your home equity. Further, interest is calculated based on actual borrowing not on the amount approved.

Avoid Fear-Based Decisions

Making fear-based investment decisions rarely work out. Because these are uncertain times, it’s important to consult with financial experts to discuss your options and allay your concerns.

Remember you’re not alone. Millions of Canadians are in similar circumstances. There are options. As part of a solid financial plan, using your home equity can provide funds that act as a bridge to avoid investment losses until the economy and market recover.

If you’d like to discuss your financial situation, contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime! . We would love to work through all your options with you!

Canada's Economy Is Outperforming the US

Fri, 31 Jul 2020 18:03:32 GMT

Canadian Economy Recovers Almost Half Its COVID-Induced Loss in May and June

The Canadian economy bounced back sharply in May and June as Canadian provinces eased lockdown measures.

GDP expanded 4.5% in May, and activity in June was even more robust at an estimated 5% rise. Cumulatively, GDP rose 10% in May and June, after plummeting more than 18% in March and April. These figures are calculated on a month-over-month basis.

These figures point to about a 40% annual rate decline in second-quarter GDP in Canada, which is roughly in line with economists' projections. South of the border, the US posted a 33% contraction in GDP for the second quarter, the most massive plunge on record (see details below). It's not surprising that Canada's economy tanked by more than the US in Q2, as Canada enacted more aggressive restrictions earlier than the US and eased them more slowly. These public health restrictions were well worth it, as Canada has had far greater success at flattening the curve of new cases and deaths. Moreover, Canada's economy will likely outpace the US in Q3, showing the benefit of allowing the public health considerations to dominate.

Canadian output was up in most sub-sectors in May, with double-digit monthly gains by retailers coinciding with the reopening of many stores. Construction, too, recorded a strong rebound, with activity up 17.6% month-over-month in the sector.

Activity at food services and bars rose 35.1% in May as dining rooms and patios began to open in certain parts of the country, while other restaurants continued relying exclusively on take-out and delivery. Meanwhile, accommodation services dropped 2.3%, as ongoing restrictions on international and interprovincial travel kept most Canadians at home.

Real estate and rental and leasing increased 1.5% in May following a 3.4% decline in April. Activity at the offices of real estate agents and brokers jumped 57.1% in the month, as home resale activity in nearly all major urban centres increased in conjunction with a substantial increase in the number of newly listed homes. Nevertheless, the output of real estate agents and brokers remained 44% below February's level.

Arts, entertainment, and recreation declined another 2.9%. We expect some of these services industries to continue to lag the recovery as demand will be slow to rise due to remaining safety protocols and concerns about virus spread.

Oil production remained sluggish in May, down another 2.7% from April and drilling activity has yet to show signs of a significant rebound into the summer.

US Economy Shrinks at a Record 32.9% Pace in Q2

US gross domestic product shrank 9.5% in the second quarter from the first, a drop that equals an annualized pace of 32.9%, the Commerce Department's initial estimate showed on Thursday. That's the steepest annualized decline in quarterly records dating back to 1947. The drop in GDP in the quarter was close to expectations but was still alone more than twice the total 6-quarter peak-to-trough decline in the 2008/09 recession.

Consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of GDP, slumped an annualized 34.6%, also the most on record. While employment, spending and production have improved since reopenings picked up in May and massive federal stimulus reached Americans, a recent surge in infections has tempered the pace of the recovery.

US Jobless Claims

A separate report Thursday showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased for a second straight week. Initial claims through regular state programs rose to 1.43 million in the week ended July 25, up 12,000 from the prior week, the Labor Department said. There were 17 million Americans filing for ongoing benefits through those programs in the period ended July 18, up 867,000 from the prior week.

While the economic restart has helped put 7.5 million Americans back to work in May and June combined, payrolls are down more than 14.5 million from their pre-pandemic peak.

"We have seen some signs in recent weeks that the increase in virus cases, and the renewed measures to control it, are starting to weigh on economic activity," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a news conference Wednesday after the central bank's two-day policy meeting. "On balance, it looks like the data are pointing to a slowing in the pace of the recovery," though it was too soon to say how extensive -- or sustained -- this period would be, he said. This is a reminder that there are limits to how much the economy can rebound to a 'new normal' in the absence of a vaccine or more effective treatments.

According to Bloomberg News , The US economy has stalled for the fourth consecutive week as new virus cases continue to surge and some lockdown measures have been reinstated. In the week ending July 24, we saw a decline in US public transit ridership, airline passengers, mortgage applications, consumer confidence, and same-store sales.

With the election only three months away, American voters will have to decide whether to re-elect President Donald Trump to a second term against a backdrop of the virus-induced recession and his response to the health crisis. Not surprisingly, Donald Trump floated the idea of delaying the election in a tweet yesterday morning, suggesting once again the false claim that widespread mail-in voting would make the election “inaccurate and fraudulent.” The president has no power to postpone or cancel an election on his own, and his comment triggered a hugely negative response from both his own party and the Democrats.

In the meantime, a $600 weekly supplement to unemployment benefits that has provided a key economic lifeline for millions of Americans ends today with Republicans and Democrats still quarrelling over a path forward. This, while US coronavirus deaths now top 152,000, hitting records in Texas and Florida and Dr. Anthony Fauci warns that the disease is spreading rapidly to the Midwest.

Bottom Line

The Canadian economy is outpacing the US in the early recovery period.

Some of the initial bounce-back in Canada – particularly in the housing market – probably reflects the release of pent-up demand generated during the lockdown. Unprecedented income supports have also helped prop up near-term household purchasing power. Payments from CERB alone looked larger than total wage losses through the downturn in April, and we expect to see more of the same in May payroll employment and wage numbers in the week ahead.

The threat of a resurgence in virus spread will still limit the amount that the economy can recover over the second half of this year – and activity in the oil and gas sector still looks exceptionally soft. We still expect GDP to be more than 5% below year-ago levels, and the unemployment rate elevated, in Q4. But there is some scope for Canada to outperform the US in the very near-term, provided virus spread can remain relatively well contained.

According to early advance data for July published by RBC economics, retail and recreation activity in Canada continues to recover more quickly than in the US states suffering surging COVID cases (see chart below).

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper and was included in her regular newsletter, but we loved it, so we added it to our blog. You're welcome.

Does Payment Frequency Make a Difference?

Mon, 27 Jul 2020 19:09:04 GMT

It has been said that there are two certainties in life; death and taxes. Well, as it relates to your mortgage, the single certainty is that you will pay back what you borrowed, plus interest. However, how you make your mortgage payments, the payment frequency, is somewhat up to you! The following is a look at the different types of payment frequencies and how they will impact you and your bottom line.

Here are the 6 main payment frequency types

Monthly payments – 12 payments per year
Semi-Monthly payments – 24 payments per year
Bi-weekly payments – 26 payments per year
Weekly payments – 52 payments per year
Accelerated bi-weekly payments – 26 payments per year
Accelerated weekly payments – 52 payments per year

Options one through four are designed to match your payment frequency with your employer. So if you get paid monthly, it makes sense to arrange your mortgage payments to come out a few days after payday. If you’re paid every second Friday, it might make sense to have your mortgage payments match your payday! These are lifestyle choices, and will of course pay down your mortgage as agreed in your mortgage contract, and will run the full length of your amortization.

However, options five and six have that word accelerated attached… and they do just that, they accelerate how fast you are able to pay down your mortgage. Here’s how that works.

With the accelerated bi-weekly payment frequency, you make 26 payments in the year, but instead of making the total annual payment divided by 26 payments, you divide the total annual payment by 24 payments (as if the payments were being set as semi-monthly) and you make 26 payments at the higher amount.

So let’s say your monthly payment is $2000.

Bi-weekly payment : $2000 x 12 / 26 = $923.07

Accelerated bi-weekly payment $2000 x 12 / 24 = $1000

You see, by making the accelerated bi-weekly payments, it’s like you’re actually making two extra payments each year. It’s these extra payments that add up and reduce your mortgage principal, which then saves you interest on the total life of your mortgage.

The payments for accelerated weekly work the same way, it’s just that you’d be making 52 payments a year instead of 26.

Essentially by choosing an accelerated option for your payment frequency, you are lowering the overall cost of borrowing, and making small extra payments as part of your regular cash flow.

Now, It’s hard to nail down exactly how much interest you would save over the course of a 25 year amortization, because your total mortgage is broken up into terms with different interest rates along the way. However, given today’s rates, an accelerated bi-weekly payment schedule could reduce your amortization by up to three and a half years.

If you’d like to have a look at some of the mortgage numbers as they relate to you, please don’t hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts, we’d love to work with you and help you find the mortgage (and the mortgage payment frequency) that best suits your needs.

Bank of Canada emphasizes that interest rates will remain low for a very long time.

Mon, 20 Jul 2020 21:19:20 GMT

Bank of Canada Holds Target Rate Steady Until Inflation Sustainably Hits 2%

The Bank of Canada under the new governor, Tiff Macklem, wants to be "unusually clear" that interest rates will remain low for a very long time. To do that, they are using "forward guidance"--indicating that they will not raise rates until capacity is absorbed and inflation hits its 2% target on a sustainable basis, which they estimate will take at least two years. As well, they indicate that the risks to their "central" outlook are to the downside, which would extend the period over which interest rates will remain extremely low. The Bank also made it clear that they are not considering negative interest rates. The benchmark interest rate remains at 0.25%, which is deemed to be its the lower bound.

The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, with large-scale asset purchases of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. The provincial and corporate bond purchase programs will continue as announced. The Bank stands ready to adjust its programs if market conditions warrant.

With the benchmark rate at its effective lower bound, the Bank's quantitative easing is the way it is lowering mid- to longer-term interest rates, reducing the borrowing costs for Canadian households and businesses. The Bank assumes that the virus will be with us for the entire forecast range, which is two years.

The Bank released its new economic forecast in today's July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The MPR presents a central scenario for global and Canadian growth rather than the usual economic projections. The central scenario is based on assumptions outlined in the MPR, including that there is no widespread second wave of the virus in Canada or globally.

The Canadian economy is starting to recover as it re-opens from the shutdowns needed to limit the virus spread. With economic activity in the second quarter estimated to have been 15 percent below its level at the end of 2019, this is the most profound decline in economic activity since the Great Depression, but considerably less severe than the worst scenarios presented in the April MPR. Decisive and necessary fiscal and monetary policy actions have supported incomes and kept credit flowing, cushioning the fall and laying the foundation for recovery.

Mincing no words, the MPR acknowledged that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a "worldwide health-care emergency as well as an economic calamity." The course of the pandemic is inherently unknowable, and its evolution over time and across regions remains highly uncertain.

In Canada, the number of new COVID-19 cases has fallen sharply from its April high, and the economic recovery has begun in all provinces and territories and across many sectors. Consequently, economic activity is picking up notably as measures to contain the virus are relaxed. The Bank of Canada expects a sharp rebound in economic activity in the reopening phase of the recovery, followed by a more prolonged recuperation phase, which will be uneven across regions and sectors (Figure 1 below). As a result, Canada’s economic output will likely take some time to return to its pre-COVID-19 level. Many workers and businesses can expect to face an extended period of difficulty.

There are early signs that the reopening of businesses and pent-up demand are leading to an initial bounce-back in employment and output. In the central scenario, roughly 40 percent of the collapse in the first half of the year is made up in the third quarter. Subsequently, the Bank expects the economy's recuperation to slow as the pandemic continues to affect confidence and consumer behaviour and as the economy works through structural challenges. As a result, in the central scenario, real GDP declines by 7.8 percent in 2020 and resumes with growth of 5.1 percent in 2021 and 3.7 percent in 2022. The Bank expects economic slack to persist as the recovery in demand lags that of supply, creating significant disinflationary pressures.

Bottom Line

Governor Macklem said in the press conference that what he wants Canadians to take away from today's Bank of Canada's actions is " Canadian interest rates are very low and will remain very low for a very long period." The reopening of the Canadian economy is well underway. Economic activity hit bottom in April and began expanding in May and accelerated in June. About 1.25 million of the 3.0 million jobs that were lost in March-April, were added in May and June.

Some activities, including motor vehicle sales, have already seen a strong pickup since April. Likewise, housing activity fell sharply during the lockdown but is beginning to recover quickly. In contrast, some of the hardest-hit businesses, such as restaurants, travel and personal care services, have only just started to see improvements in recent weeks and are expected to continue to face significant challenges.

The chart below, from July's MPR, shows that household spending patterns have shifted since the onset of the pandemic. Some of these shifts might last. In the central scenario, the effects of the downturn and lower immigration hold down housing activity over the next few years. After a near-term boost from pent-up demand, residential investment slowly increases as income and confidence recover.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC's chief economist.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement July 15th 2020

Wed, 15 Jul 2020 14:45:08 GMT

Bank of Canada will maintain current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, continues program of quantitative easing.

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, with large-scale asset purchases of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. The Bank’s short-term liquidity programs announced since March to improve market functioning are having their intended effect and, with reduced market strains, their use has declined. The provincial and corporate bond purchase programs will continue as announced. The Bank stands ready to adjust its programs if market conditions warrant.

While economies are re-opening, the global and Canadian outlook is extremely uncertain, given the unpredictability of the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reflecting this, the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents a central scenario for global and Canadian growth rather than the usual economic projections. The central scenario is based on assumptions outlined in the MPR, including that there is no widespread second wave of the virus.

After a sharp drop in the first half of 2020, global economic activity is picking up. This return to growth reflects the relaxation of necessary containment measures put in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus, combined with extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy support. As a result, financial conditions have improved. The prices of most commodities, including oil, have risen from very low levels. In the central scenario, the global economy overall shrinks by about 5 percent in 2020 and then grows by around 5 percent on average in 2021 and 2022. The timing and pace of the recovery varies among regions and could be hampered by a resurgence of infections and the limited capacity of some countries to contain the virus or support their economies.

The Canadian economy is starting to recover as it re-opens from the shutdowns needed to limit the virus spread. With economic activity in the second quarter estimated to have been 15 percent below its level at the end of 2019, this is the deepest decline in economic activity since the Great Depression, but considerably less severe than the worst scenarios presented in the April MPR. Decisive and necessary fiscal and monetary policy actions have supported incomes and kept credit flowing, cushioning the fall and laying the foundation for recovery. Since early June, the government has announced additional support programs, and extended others.

CPI inflation is close to zero, pulled down by sharp declines in components such as gasoline and travel services. The Bank’s core measures of inflation have drifted down, although by much less than the CPI, and are now between 1.4 and 1.9 percent. Inflation is expected to remain weak before gradually strengthening toward 2 percent as the drag from low gas prices and other temporary effects dissipates and demand recovers, reducing economic slack.

As the economy moves from reopening to recuperation, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In addition, to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank is continuing its large-scale asset purchase program at a pace of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. This QE program is making borrowing more affordable for households and businesses and will continue until the recovery is well underway. To support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective, the Bank is prepared to provide further monetary stimulus as needed.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 9, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 28, 2020.

Here is a copy of the Monetary Policy Report for July 2020.

Strong June Jobs Report in Canada

Fri, 10 Jul 2020 18:26:56 GMT

Robust Jobs Report in June, Much Better Than Expected

The June Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Statistics Canada, reflects labour market conditions as of the week of June 14 to June 20. By that time, public health restrictions had been eased in most parts of the country. Tighter restrictions remained, however, in much of southwestern Ontario, including Toronto. Even though businesses reopened, physical distancing and other requirements reduced the employment impact of the easing lockdown provisions.

From February to April, 5.5 million Canadian workers--30% of the workforce-- either lost their jobs or saw their hours significantly scaled back. Yet, nearly 8.2 million Canadians receive the $2,000 per month Canadian Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) payments. Is this a disincentive for some workers to return to work?

The benefits have been recently extended by eight weeks to roughly the end of August, and the NDP is urging Ottawa to continue them until early October. If you earn more than $1,000 per month, you lose the full $2,000 monthly payment, so clearly, this might preclude some from seeking new work or returning to their original employers.

CERB has cushioned the blow of the pandemic on households and helped to boost consumer confidence. Nevertheless, keep it in mind in assessing the speed at which the jobless are returning to work.

Blowout Jobs Report in June

By the week of June 14 to June 20, the number of workers affected by the COVID-19 economic shutdown was 3.1 million, down 43% since April.

Building on an initial recovery of 290,000 in May, employment rose by nearly one million in June (+953,000; +5.8%), with gains split between full-time work (+488,000 or +3.5%) and part-time work (+465,000 or +17.9%). With these two consecutive monthly increases, the total level of employment in June was 1.8 million (-9.2%) lower than in February.

The speed of job recovery has been much faster than in previous recessions, just as the pandemic-induced decline in jobs was more sudden. Men are closer to pre-shutdown employment levels than women in all age groups. The hardest-hit sectors, accommodation, food services, retail trade and personal services are heavily dominated by female employees. The burden of daycare with schools closed likely fell more heavily on women as evidenced by the higher unemployment rate for women with young children.

Unemployment Rate Drops in June After Reaching a Record High in May

The unemployment rate was 12.3% in June, a drop of 1.4 percentage points from a record-high of 13.7% in May. While this was the most significant monthly decline on record, the unemployment rate remains much higher than in February, when it was 5.6%.

Employment Increases in All Provinces

In Ontario , where the easing of COVID-19 restrictions began in late May and expanded on June 12, employment rose by 378,000 (+5.9%) in June, the first increase since the COVID-19 economic shutdown. The proportion of employed people who worked less than half of their usual hours declined by 6.5 percentage points to 14.1% in Ontario. The unemployment rate declined 1.4 percentage points to 12.2% as the number of people on temporary layoff declined (see table below).

In Toronto, where the easing of some COVID-19 restrictions was delayed until June 24, the recovery rate was slightly below that of Ontario in June. The employment level in Toronto was 89.6% of the February level, compared with 94.5% for the rest of the province (not adjusted for seasonality).

Quebec recorded employment gains of 248,000 (+6.5%) in June, adding to similar gains (+231,000) in May and bringing employment to 92.2% of its February level. At the same time, the number of unemployed people in the province declined for the second consecutive month in June (-119,000), pushing the unemployment rate down 3.0 percentage points to 10.7%. The decline in unemployment in Quebec was entirely driven by fewer people on temporary layoff.

The number of people employed in British Columbia rose by 118,000 (+5.4%) in June, following an increase of 43,000 in May. The proportion of employed people who worked less than half of their usual hours declined by 2.9 percentage points to 14.6%. The number of unemployed in the province was little changed in June, and the unemployment rate edged down 0.4 percentage points to 13.0%.

In the Western provinces, employment increased in Saskatchewan (+30,000) for the first time since the COVID-19 economic shutdown and rose for the second consecutive month in both Alberta (+92,000) and Manitoba (+29,000).

In New Brunswick , the first province to begin easing COVID-19 restrictions, employment increased by 22,000 in June. Combined with May gains, this brought employment in the province to 97.1% of its pre-COVID February level, the most complete employment recovery of all provinces to date.

Employment increased for the second consecutive month in Nova Scotia (+29,000), Newfoundland and Labrador (+6,000) and Prince Edward Island (+1,700).

Sectoral Variation in Job Growth

Those sectors that require proximity of workers to customers (accommodation and food services and retail trade other than online) remained hardest hit by the medically-induced job losses. As well, a high proportion of jobs in both the health care and social assistance and educational services industries involve proximity to others. Employment increased in all of these sectors, but remain well below pre-COVID levels.

Also hard hit was employment in businesses that rely on the gathering of large groups (information, culture and recreation industry). This sector was subject to some of the earliest public health restrictions in the form of the size of gatherings as all provinces continue to limit the number of people allowed to gather in public.

In several services-producing industries—such as wholesale trade, public administration, and finance, insurance, real estate and rental and leasing—fewer than 40% of jobs involve proximity with others. In many of these industries, employment in June was at or near pre-COVID-shutdown levels.

Monthly employment gains were recorded in wholesale trade (+38,000) and finance, insurance, real estate and rental and leasing (+17,000). Employment returned to pre-COVID-19 levels in wholesale trade, while it was 1.0% lower than pre-COVID-19 levels in finance, insurance, real estate and rental and leasing.

In most industries where few jobs require close physical proximity with others, workers have shifted to working from home on a large scale. In finance, insurance, real estate and rental and leasing, 6 in 10 (61.2%) were working from home during the week of June 14, more than double the proportion (28.5%) who usually do so. A larger-than-usual percentage of workers also continued to work from home in professional, scientific and technical services (73.2%) and public administration (53.8%).

After avoiding significant job losses in the first month of the COVID-19 economic shutdown, both the construction and manufacturing industries experienced heavy losses in April, followed by an initial recovery in May.

In June, employment in construction was 157,000 higher than in April, reaching 89.3% of its February level. In the manufacturing sector, employment gains in May and June totalled 160,000, bringing employment to 91.9% of its February level.

In each of the construction and manufacturing industries, both the proportion of people working less than 50% of their usual work hours and the number of people on temporary layoff fell markedly in June. Construction recorded a 53.8% decrease in the number of people on temporary layoff (not adjusted for seasonality).

Bottom Line

This was an unambiguously strong jobs report, and we will likely see a continued rebound in employment as long as the economy can open further. Undoubtedly, however, Canada's economy is still digging itself out of a deep hole, and some jobs are gone for good. But new sectors are growing rapidly as the pandemic accelerated the technological forces that were already in train. I expect to see strong job growth in the following new and burgeoning areas: telemedicine, big data, artificial intelligence, cloud services, cybersecurity, 5G, driverless transportation and clean energy. Online shopping will also continue to proliferate as Canadians have learned to use delivery services and online retail.

These new jobs require training and a high degree of expertise. Those who have suffered permanent job losses will need to adapt. What we do not want to see is government programs that slow the rate of adaptation or support businesses that are no longer viable. Support for those most in need with little likelihood of adaptation will remain necessary.

This article was written by Dr Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist for DLC.

Latest Bank of Canada Business Sentiment

Tue, 07 Jul 2020 22:10:58 GMT

The Bank of Canada released its Summer Business Outlook Survey (BOS)* this morning, covering an interview period from mid-May to early June. In all provinces and all sectors, the sentiment was hugely negative owing to the impact of the pandemic and falling oil prices.

Since the previous survey, conducted before concerns about COVID-19 has intensified, but as oil prices had already started to fall, business confidence plunged. Surprisingly, however, the business sentiment was not as negative as during the 2007-09 global financial crisis (see Chart 1 below). This was mainly due to the government support offered to cushion the blow of the pandemic. Also, many firms expect a reasonably quick rebound in operations after a temporary decline in sales, unlike the 2007–09 crisis when businesses anticipated persistent weakness in demand.

Highlights of the BOS:

Forward-looking sales indicators have collapsed. Many businesses referred to elevated uncertainty. Still, roughly half of firms anticipate that their sales will recover to pre-pandemic levels within the next year.
Businesses in most regions and sectors intend to cut their investment spending significantly. Hiring plans are muted, although a quarter of firms plan to refill some positions after recent layoffs.
Reports of capacity pressures and labour shortages have fallen significantly. This suggests a substantial widening in economic slack.
Expectations for input and output price growth, as well as for overall inflation, are all down considerably.
Credit conditions have tightened significantly, but government measures are a helpful offset.

_______________________________
*The Business Outlook Survey summarizes interviews conducted by the Bank’s regional offices with the senior management of about 100 firms selected in accordance with the composition of the gross domestic product of Canada’s business sector. This survey was conducted by phone and video conference from May 12 to June 5, 2020.

BoC Consumer Expectations Survey--Q2 2020

This survey was conducted from May 11 to June 1, in the throws of the ongoing pandemic. Of most concern to consumers was the prospect of losing their jobs. Many believed finding another job would be difficult. As well, consumer expectations for wage growth declined significantly.

According to the survey, consumer expectations for interest rates have fallen sharply, although they expect rates to rise over the 1-year to 5-year horizon, albeit moderately. At the same time, expectations for average house price growth have dropped to zero for Canada as a whole. For Ontario, respondents expect the average home price to rise by 1% over the next year. In BC, people see home prices falling a moderate -0.30%, with Albertan respondents suggesting a price decline of -4.3% (see the chart below). It is important to note that oil prices have risen considerably since the completion of this survey. All of these forecasts are well below the figures in the Q1 study.

It is noteworthy that all of these expectations are well below the CMHC forecast for the national average home price to fall 9%-to-18% over the coming year.

This article was written by DLC's chief economist Dr Sherry Cooper.

Canadian GDP Down in April With Modest Uptick in May

Tue, 30 Jun 2020 16:45:35 GMT

The pandemic shutdown put every sector of the economy into a medically induced coma, so it was no surprise that the first full month of lockdown would be ugly. Indeed, consensus estimates were worse than the 11.6% drop in economic activity reported this morning by Statistics Canada (see chart below). April's contraction followed the March decline of 7.5%. All 20 industrial sectors of the economy were depressed, producing the largest monthly slump since the series started in 1961.

Services-producing sectors recorded a 9.7% drop, led by retail trade and transportation. Goods-producing industries saw a 17% decline in output. The economy at the end of April was 18.2% lower than its February level, the month before the COVID-19 measures began.

Nothing like this has ever happened in our lifetimes; we are in uncharted territory, and the virus will determine the future course of the economy. Policymakers in Canada have done a commendable job in cushioning the blow of the lockdown and its lasting impact on the economy. Importantly, Canada has posted a sustained decline in the number of cases owing to the enforced lockdown measures. Canada's success is in direct contrast to the disastrous surge in COVID cases in roughly 20 US states where the economy opened prematurely, and public health initiatives were grossly mismanaged. It is crucial, however, that we not assume the worst is over and let down our guard. The World Health Organization said yesterday that "the worst was yet to come." Moreover, the timing of a vaccine is unknown, and Canada remains susceptible to contamination from incoming American truckers, travellers and virus spread if we open too quickly.

Highlights of the economic contraction in April were:

Air transportation plummeted 93.7%, reflecting the reduced movement of both goods and passengers.
Accommodation and food services dropped 42.4%, following a 37.1% decline in March. The sector was down a whopping 64% from its level of activity in February.
Real estate declined 3.5% in April following a 1.2% decline in March. Activity at the offices of real estate agents and brokers plunged 57.2% in April, as home resale activity in nearly all major urban centres came to a standstill.
Personal and laundry services (provided by hair salons, beauty parlours, funeral homes, dry cleaners, etc.) dropped 39.3%, while private household services offered by maids, cooks, gardeners, etc. fell more than one-third.

The good news is that StatsCan said today that preliminary information indicates an approximate 3.0% increase in real GDP for May. Output across several industrial sectors--including manufacturing, retail and wholesale as well as the public sector (health, education and public administration)--increased in May, as activities gradually resumed in phases in different regions of the country.

Consumer Providing Support

On a more positive note, the economists at Royal Bank reported yesterday that personal spending had rebounded sharply since early April, judging by debit and credit card purchases (see chart below). Overall card volumes were near year-earlier levels by June 16th, down 2% year-over-year. Reopening across the country spurred spending at clothing stores and on personal services such as haircuts and massages. Early indications suggest online shopping remains popular despite the opening of bricks and mortar stores.

The reopening of the economy, along with federal government income support, has boosted consumer confidence and spending. The Canadian Emergency Response Benefit program (CERB) provides eligible consumers who had stopped working because of COVID $2,000 per four-week period. Trudeau recently extended the CERB from 16 weeks to 20 weeks.

Consumer confidence has climbed for nine straight weeks according to the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index, a weekly composite measure of financial health and economic expectations. The index currently stands at 46. That's up nearly 10 points from early May and is slowly nearing the 50-point mark, above which views are considered to be net positive.

One unintended problem, however, is that the CERB is becoming a disincentive to work. If a recipient earns more than $1,000 per month, he or she loses the full $2,000 payment. Also, for some, the CERB allotment is more than they earned at their previous job, so they are reluctant to return to work when their businesses open. The stipend is now making it difficult for restaurants, retail stores, cleaning services and trades to get their workers back. The government needs to start winding down direct cash support, but instead, it extended the payments until the end of August.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was published with permission.

Governor Macklem Affirms No Negative Interest Rates

Wed, 24 Jun 2020 20:11:31 GMT

First Formal Remarks By Tiff Macklem, Bank of Canada Governor

There were no surprises this morning from Governor Macklem's virtual presentation to the Canadian Clubs of Canada. His opening written statement was quite brief and it was followed up with a Q and A. Here are the key points that he emphasized.

Negative interest rates are off the table as they "lead to distortions in the behaviour of financial markets."
Therefore, no additional Bank of Canada rate cuts is coming.
The BoC will continue its securities purchase program to provide liquidity to financial markets.
In response to questions, he said he expects lasting damage to demand and supply in the economy. He said the recovery will be "long and bumpy" and "slow and gradual".
The inflation target of 2% will remain the beacon for BoC policy. Currently, inflation is below target.
"This recession is a deep one. Women have been particularly hard hit because they work disproportionately in the hard-hit service sector and women are disproportionately caring for children and the elderly".
Fiscal support programs lay the foundation for the recovery of particular groups.
Oil-producing regions are hard hit by the oil price shock. The price of oil has moved up recently to WTI $40, but the pandemic clearly "weakens oil demand".
Household debt levels are a concern . Fiscal transfers help and households have reduced their spending. The role of the BoC is to provide the required stimulus to encourage households to spend. The macroprudential measures already in place will discourage highly indebted households from taking on more debt.
He expects "pretty good growth in jobs and GDP in Q3". Beyond that is more uncertain as we will need to repair the economy.
All institutions must speed up actions to deal with climate change, including the BoC. We will need to get a handle on the implications of this for the economy.
Chartered banks are more conservative in their lending practices since the pandemic hit. The securities-purchase programs are intended to keep credit flowing from the banks. The banks are an important shock absorber during this recession. Conditions in financial markets are much improved since the beginning of the crisis. "Markets have normalized and credit is flowing more freely".
Both the government and the BoC have introduced extraordinary programs to deal with this crisis. He said, however, that we could use "additional international assistance and cooperation".
Real estate question --How much risk does this sector represent? The Governor commented that different sectors will behave differently Warehouse and fulfillment centre demand is quite strong. Commercial real estate outlook is uncertain-- particularly office space and shopping malls. Housing--he commented that "sharp drops in housing activity" has led to "little change in prices" thus far. This will vary by region and type of housing in the future.
"The pace of change is accelerating. Societies around the world are having trouble keeping up. The central bank must get ahead of this" and be prepared for the unknowns, be agile and resolute.
Asked about the potential for a second wave of a pandemic, he said, "The outlook is fraught with uncertainty. The biggest uncertainty is the course of the virus. There will be increases in the number of cases. We need testing and tracing with quick responses locally. We need to determine how to open up safely."
When asked for his last word, he said, "We are going to get through this. Canadians are resourceful, business ingenuity is strong, this will be a long slow recovery and there will be setbacks. We have avoided the worst scenario. Not all jobs will come back. The Bank is laser-focused on supporting this recovery and getting Canadians back to work".

This article was written by Dr Sherry Cooper DLC's Chief Economist. It was published to her newsletter on June 22nd 2020.

Canadian Home Sales and New Listings Recover One-Third of Pandemic Loss in May

Mon, 15 Jun 2020 18:13:11 GMT

There was good news today on the housing front. Home sales surged by a record 56.9% in May from April's unprecedented collapse. Data released this morning from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed national home sales recovered roughly one-third of the COVID-induced loss between February and April (see chart below). On a year-over-year (y-o-y) basis, sales activity was still down almost 40%, but the jump in sales and an even larger surge in new listings shows pent-up demand remains for housing as buyers wish to take advantage of historically low mortgage rates.

Transactions were up on a month-over-month (m-o-m) basis across the country. Among Canada’s largest markets, sales rose by 53% in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), 92.3% in Montreal, 31.5% in Greater Vancouver, 20.5% in the Fraser Valley, 68.7% in Calgary, 46.5% in Edmonton, 45.6% in Winnipeg, 69.4% in Hamilton-Burlington and 30.5% in Ottawa. Not surprisingly, the cities with the smallest gains posted the smallest declines in prior months.

More importantly, anecdotal data suggest that housing activity has been steadily rising from the middle of April until the first week in June.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes shot up by a record 69% in May compared to the prior month with gains recorded across the country.

With new listings having recovered by more than sales in May, the national sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 58.8% compared to 63.3% posted in April. While this statistic has moved lower, the bigger picture is that this measure of market balance has been remarkably stable considering the extent to which current economic and social conditions are impacting both buyers and sellers.

There were 5.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of May 2020, down from 9 months in April. The temporary jump in this measure recorded in April reflected the fact that sales were expected to fall right away amid lockdowns; whereas, other variables like active listings would be expected to fall at a much slower pace. The CREA report suggests many sellers who already had homes on the market before mid-March may have left the listings up for now but drastically curtailed the extent to which they were showing their homes during the lockdown. With many of those now coming off the market, overall active listings have fallen by about a quarter as of the end of May, bringing them down among the lowest levels on record for that time of the year.

Home Prices

Home prices were little changed in May compared to April across Canada. Of the 19 markets tracked by the MLS Home Price Index (HPI), 18 recorded either m-o-m increases or smaller decreases than in April. Five markets posted price gains in May following a decline in April (see the table below for local details).

In general, since the pandemic crisis began small declines in prices have been posted in British Columbia while declining trends already in place in Alberta have accelerated. With the recent surge in oil prices, however, sales activity has actually improved across the Prairies and price trends have been stabilizing.

Despite the pandemic, home prices in the Greater Golden Horsehoe area around and including Toronto have fallen very little and remain well above year-ago levels. In Ottawa, Montreal and Moncton, prices have continued to climb, albeit at a slower pace than before.

Bottom Line

CMHC has recently forecast that national average sales prices will fall 9%-to-18% in 2020 and not return to yearend-2019 levels until as late as 2022. I continue to believe that this forecast is overly pessimistic. Firstly, average sales prices are highly misleading, especially on a national basis because they vary so much depending on the location of the activity, as well as the types of property sold.

There is no national housing market. All housing markets are local. A glance at Table 1 above shows a wide variation in regional sales price action, but if anything, trends appear to be converging on moderate positive pressure on prices. Today's economic recession is like no other. The record stimulus introduced by the Bank of Canada and the federal government will assure that the housing markets will continue to function, even with social-distancing measures in place, and those who enjoy steady employment will proceed in due course with regular housing decisions.

Those who permanently lose their jobs are the real concern. Many of those people will be in the hardest hit and slowest-to-recover sectors of our economy, such as hospitality (accommodation and food), non-essential retail trade, and the leisure industry (arts, entertainment and recreation). Statistics Canada census data for 2016 in the table below, shows that the homeownership rate in these sectors is relatively low. Unfortunately, most of those who will be hardest hit by the pandemic can least afford it. This is an issue that fiscal policy must address, investing in retraining programs and universal income guarantees.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper and originally included in her regular newsletter.

Genworth and Canada Guaranty Won’t Adopt CMHC’s New Mortgage Rules

Tue, 09 Jun 2020 16:00:27 GMT

Following the announcement of CMHC’s new mortgage rules last week, Canada’s other two mortgage insurers, Genworth Canada and Canada Guaranty, confirmed Monday they will not be following CMHC’s lead.

“Genworth MI Canada Inc….confirms that it has no plans to change its underwriting policy related to debt service ratio limits, minimum credit score and down payment requirements,” the company said in a release .

Similarly, Canada Guaranty said it “confirms that no changes to underwriting policy are contemplated as a result of recent industry announcements.”

To recap CMHC’s mortgage rule changes, the following will apply to insured mortgages (those with less than 20% down payment) as of July 1, 2020:

Maximum Gross Debt Service (GDS) ratios will be lowered to 35% (from 39%)
Maximum Total Debt Service (TDS) ratios will be lowered to 42% (from 44%)
The minimum credit score needed to qualify will rise to 680 (from 600) for at least one household borrower
Many non-traditional sources of down payment that “increase indebtedness” will be banned
- It has been confirmed, however, that borrowers will continue to be able to use a loan from their RRSP through the Home Buyers Plan, a home equity line of credit (HELOC) on one of their second properties, or a HELOC on a property owned by their parents if the money is gifted.

“We acknowledge the potential ‘pro-cyclical’ negative impacts on housing markets of CMHC’s decision to tighten underwriting,” CMHC CEO Evan Siddall wrote on Twitter in response to criticism. “However, the benefits of preventing over-borrowing far exceed these costs. Not acting also exposes young families to the tragic prospect of foreclosure.”

Why the Other Insurers Won’t Adopt the New Rules

In explaining its decision, Genworth Canada President and CEO Stuart Levings said the company’s current underwriting policies for insured mortgages already allow it to “prudently” manage its risk exposure.

“Genworth Canada believes that its risk management framework, its dynamic underwriting policies and processes and its ongoing monitoring of conditions and market developments allow it to prudently adjudicate and manage its mortgage insurance exposure,” Levings noted, “including its exposure to this segment of borrowers with lower credit scores or higher debt service ratios.”

Similarly, Canada Guaranty said it has been well-served by its existing underwriting criteria over the years and sees no need to make adjustments now.

“Canada Guaranty utilizes a dynamic underwriting process where our underwriting policies are consistently updated to reflect evolving economic environments and emerging mortgage default patterns,” Mary Putnam, VP, Sales and Marketing of Canada Guaranty, said in a release, adding this has resulted in the lowest loss ratio in the industry.

“Recent insurer announcements relating to down payment and minimum credit score represent a very small component of Canada Guaranty’s business, and we will continue to be prudent in these areas,” she said. “Given implementation of the qualifying stress test and historic default patterns, Canada Guaranty does not anticipate borrower debt service ratios at time of origination to be a significant predictor of mortgage defaults.”

Observers saw the announcements as a positive for borrowers who will continue to have some options in the markets should they not be able to meet CMHC’s stricter qualification standards.

“We like this decision,” noted National Bank of Canada analyst Jaeme Gloyn. “The decision will help soften potential negative impacts to the housing/mortgage market as we argued against tinkering with mortgage underwriting criteria in light of the COVID-driven housing market slowdown.”

NBC had estimated that CMHC’s new rules relating to debt service ratios and credit scores could have impacted up to 20% of CMHC-insured borrowers.

This article was written by Steve Huebl and originally published on Canadian Mortgage trends on June 8th 2020. This is a portion of the original article.

CMHC Makes It Harder To Qualify For An Insured Mortgage

Fri, 05 Jun 2020 01:43:15 GMT

CMHC Tightens Housing Credit Availability Just When the Economy Needs All The Help It Can Get

Once again, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is tightening the criteria to get a mortgage with less than a 20% downpayment. Any potential homebuyer with less than a 20% downpayment must purchase default insurance on their loan and have a minimum downpayment of 5%. CMHC is a federal Crown Corporation that provides such default insurance. Its mandate is to help Canadians access affordable housing options . Providing mortgage insurance to homebuyers is one of its main activities. Mortgage default insurance protects lenders in the event a borrower ever stopped making payments and defaulted on their mortgage loan--a very infrequent occurrence in Canada.

There are private providers of default insurance as well--Genworth Financial Canada and Canada Guaranty. CMHC is the only insurer of mortgages for multi-unit residential properties, including large rental buildings, student housing and nursing and retirement homes. It is the largest provider of mortgage default insurance by far and is also the primary insurer for housing in small and rural communities.

Investment properties are not eligible for mortgage insurance. Because of this, the buyer needs at least a 20% downpayment to buy an investment property. Homes costing more than $1 million, as well, are not eligible for mortgage insurance. Typically the lender chooses the mortgage insurer.

Why Is CMHC Tightening Qualifications?

The economics team at CMHC has predicted that owing to the pandemic lockdown, home prices will likely fall by 9% to 18% over the next 12 months. They also believe that it will take at least two years for prices to return to pre-pandemic levels. The CMHC forecast for the economy is more pessimistic than many other forecasts, particularly that of the Bank of Canada, which asserted yesterday that the outlook for the economy was better than their April forecast suggested. Moreover, CMHC acknowledges the high degree of uncertainty associated with any forecast at this time. The Crown Corporation highlights the post-shutdown job losses, business closures and the drop in immigration that adversely affect Canadian housing.

They also have emphasized the 15% of existing mortgages that are now in deferral and believe there is a risk that 20% of all mortgages could be in arrears when deferrals end. Their stated justification for tightening qualification requirements is "to protect future home buyers and reduce risk."

What Are These Changes In Underwriting Policies

Effective July 1, the following changes will apply for new applications for homeowner transactional and portfolio mortgage insurance:

The maximum gross debt service (GDS) ratio drops from 39 to 35
The maximum total debt service (TDS) ratio drops from 44 to 42
The minimum credit score rises from 600 to 680 for at least one borrower
Non-traditional sources of downpayment that increase indebtedness will no longer be treated as equity for insurance purposes

CMHC goes on to say that "To further manage the risk to our insurance business, and ultimately taxpayers, during this uncertain time, we have also suspended refinancing for multi-unit mortgage insurance except when the funds are used for repairs or reinvestment in housing. Consultations have begun on the repositioning of our multi-unit mortgage insurance products."

Here's What We Know So Far

Anecdotal reports suggest that it is likely that private default insurers will not match CMHC's lower debt ratios. They might, however, be more selective in their approval processes.

Canadian fiscal and monetary authorities are expending huge sums to keep the economy afloat, cushion the blow of the shutdown, and to make sure ample credit is available. These actions are intended to minimize unnecessary insolvencies. It is, therefore, surprising that a federal Crown Corporation would take these procyclical actions now.

The exact impact of these changes will not be known until more details are available: How the Big Banks will respond with their own prime mortgage underwriting rules; how these new rules will apply to the securitization market; and how far the private default insurers will go along with these new rules.

Suffice it to say that this batters buyer and seller confidence and, all other things equal, has a net negative impact on the near-term housing outlook. Most importantly, in my view, these changes are unnecessary to protect the prudence of Canada's home lending practices. Mortgage delinquency rates are meagre, and even the Bank of Canada's forecast is for delinquencies to remain less than 1% of all outstanding mortgages. Moreover, homebuyers with jobs who meet former qualifications would undoubtedly have a longer than two-year time horizon when buying their first homes. They were already qualifying at the posted rate that is more than 250 basis points above the contract rate. If anything, the pandemic recession assures that interest rates will remain very low over the next two years.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC's Chief Economist.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement June 3rd 2020

Wed, 03 Jun 2020 15:27:19 GMT

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent.

Incoming data confirm the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy. This impact appears to have peaked, although uncertainty about how the recovery will unfold remains high. Massive policy responses in advanced economies have helped to replace lost income and cushion the effect of economic shutdowns. Financial conditions have improved, and commodity prices have risen in recent weeks after falling sharply earlier this year. Because different countries’ containment measures will be lifted at different times, the global recovery likely will be protracted and uneven.

In Canada, the pandemic has led to historic losses in output and jobs. Still, the Canadian economy appears to have avoided the most severe scenario presented in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The level of real GDP in the first quarter was 2.1 percent lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019. This GDP reading is in the middle of the Bank’s April monitoring range and reflects the combined impact of falling oil prices and widespread shutdowns. The level of real GDP in the second quarter will likely show a further decline of 10-20 percent, as continued shutdowns and sharply lower investment in the energy sector take a further toll on output. Decisive and targeted fiscal actions, combined with lower interest rates, are buffering the impact of the shutdown on disposable income and helping to lay the foundation for economic recovery. While the outlook for the second half of 2020 and beyond remains heavily clouded, the Bank expects the economy to resume growth in the third quarter.

CPI inflation has decreased to near zero, as anticipated in the April MPR, mainly due to lower prices for gasoline. The Bank expects temporary factors to keep CPI inflation below the target band in the near term. The Bank’s core measures of inflation have drifted down, although by much less than the CPI, and are now between 1.6 and 2 percent.

The Bank’s programs to improve market function are having their intended effect. After significant strains in March, short-term funding conditions have improved. Therefore, the Bank is reducing the frequency of its term repo operations to once per week, and its program to purchase bankers’ acceptances to bi-weekly operations. The Bank stands ready to adjust these programs if market conditions warrant. Meanwhile, its other programs to purchase federal, provincial, and corporate debt are continuing at their present frequency and scope.

As market function improves and containment restrictions ease, the Bank’s focus will shift to supporting the resumption of growth in output and employment. The Bank maintains its commitment to continue large-scale asset purchases until the economic recovery is well underway. Any further policy actions would be calibrated to provide the necessary degree of monetary policy accommodation required to achieve the inflation target.

INFORMATION NOTES

Tiff Macklem assumes his role as the Bank’s tenth Governor today. He participated as an observer in Governing Council’s deliberations for this policy interest rate decision and endorses the rate decision and measures announced in this press release.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 15, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

Latest in Mortgage News June 2020

Mon, 01 Jun 2020 19:05:27 GMT

2.5 years for home prices to make new highs says CMHC

Canada’s housing sector indicators, including prices, sales and home starts, aren’t expected to return to pre-COVID levels until at least the end of 2022, according to CMHC’s latest Spring Housing Outlook .

“Following large declines in 2020, housing starts, sales and prices are expected to start to recover by mid-2021 as pandemic containment measures are lifted and economic conditions improve,” said the housing agency’s chief economist, Bob Dugan.

“Sales and prices are likely to remain below their pre-COVID19 levels by the end of our forecast horizon in 2022,” Dugan added, while admitting the “precise timing and speed of the recovery is highly uncertain.”

The report reiterated the agency’s forecast that house prices could decline anywhere from 9-18%, adding that oil-producing regions could see declines up to 25%.

Sales, meanwhile, are expected to fall 19-29% this year from pre-COVID levels due to job losses.

“Our forecast is a little on the pessimistic side…it is just a very tough time for the economy,” Dugan told BNN Bloomberg .

Meanwhile, many banks have forecast home price declines of closer to 10%, including CIBC economists who said earlier this month they expect prices to fall between 5% and 10% before starting to recover.

In a recent report , CIBC economists Benjamin Tal and Katherine Judge noted there are “clear early signs that the market is starting to wake up,” with activity in the first two weeks of May “notably stronger” compared to the first two weeks of April.

Delinquencies Expected to Rise

Speaking of forecasts, TransUnion Canada has revised its 2020 Credit Forecast to account for the impact of COVID-19.

The credit monitoring agency now expects the national mortgage delinquency rate (those who fall 90+ days behind on their mortgage payments) to rise to 0.9% by the end of the year. That’s triple the delinquency rate of 0.3% reported in both Q4 2019 and the first quarter of 2020.

Non-mortgage delinquencies, such as credit cards, auto loans and other personal loans, are expected to top 6.3% by year end, a moderate increase from 5.6% in Q4 2019 and 5.8% in Q1 2020.

“The various government relief benefits, combined with deferral programs provided by lenders, can act to offset some of the COVID-related delinquency,” Matt Fabian, director of financial services research and consulting at TransUnion, said in a release. “However, each of these measures may contribute to long-term risk at a future time, as consumers will generally still be responsible for paying these deferred obligations at some point in the future.”

Reverse Mortgage Rates Hit a New Low

Seniors in the market for a reverse mortgage can now find a 5-year fixed term for under 4.00% for the first time.

Last week, Equitable Bank — one of just two reverse mortgage providers in Canada — lowered its reverse mortgage rates across the board by 15 bps, including its 5-year “lump sum” rate to 3.99% .

As the name implies, to take advantage of this lower rate, the borrower must withdraw the desired funds all at once, as opposed to borrowing in smaller amounts over time, which reduces interest costs. The rate for the standard 5-year fixed reverse mortgage is now 4.69%, down from 5.74% just one year ago.

Bank of Canada Expected to Leave Rates on Hold

The Bank of Canada meets this week (June 3) for the first time with Tiff Macklem as Governor. Markets and economists are in agreement that the Bank will leave its key lending rate unchanged at 0.25%.

“With the overnight rate already at 0.25% and the Bank of Canada’s recent guidance that it considers that the effective lower bound, a change in interest rates is unlikely,” said Alicia Macdonald, Associate director of Economic Forecasting at the Conference Board of Canada.

“Negative interest rates are back in the spotlight. Markets are pricing them in in the U.S., although not yet in Canada where the policy rate is still higher,” added Capital Economics senior economist Stephen Brown. “Overall, we do not think the Bank will pull its policy rate negative soon, even with a new Governor taking the helm.”

Overnight Index Swap markets are pricing in a 15% chance of an additional rate cut by the end of the year.

This article was written by Steve Huebl and originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends May 31st 2020.

Lockdowns Hit Canadian Q1 GDP

Fri, 29 May 2020 16:45:34 GMT

Near-Record Decline in Q1 GDP Better Than Flash Estimate

The hand-wringing about the Q1 GDP data released today misses the point that the data were actually better than expected. The Canadian economy declined at an 8.2% annualized rate in the first quarter, less harsh than the earlier estimate by StatsCan of -10%. Of course, every sector of the economy was hit by the enforced shutdown, but not by nearly as much as most economists anticipated. For the month of March, the decline was 7.2%, less dire than the -9% earlier estimate.

In light of the current unprecedented national and global economic environment, StatsCan is providing leading indicators fo economic activity. Their preliminary flash estimate for April is an 11% decline in real GDP. This estimate will be revised as more info becomes available, but the March and April decreases are likely to be the largest consecutive monthly declines on record.

The Economy Has Bottomed

It looks increasingly likely that we are already past the bottom of the latest economic downturn, with GDP potentially getting back on a positive growth trajectory as early as May.

That won't be enough to prevent a historically large drop in Q2 output-- likely multiples of the decline in Q1--but it would leave the data tracking along the more "optimistic" end of the -15% to -30% growth range estimated by the Bank of Canada in their last Monetary Policy Report. Government support programs for those losing work have been unprecedented--household disposable income actually edged up slightly in Q1 despite the large drop in overall economic activity, boosted by government transfers. With the decline in spending in March and April and the rise in disposable income, the savings rate is soaring. All of us are saving money by doing our own cooking and cleaning. We aren't travelling and shopping is certainly limited, not to mention the savings on gasoline, entertainment, hairstyling and gym memberships. Hopefully, this could provide a cushion to support spending and the economy will turn sharply higher in Q3.

Still, the three million jobs lost over March and April will not be recouped quickly. The lockdown is easing only gradually, and any activities requiring large gatherings--think tourism, conferences, concerts, movies and sports--will remain closed until there is a vaccine or effective treatment. We expect things will begin to get better from this point, but still look for the unemployment rate to remain elevated at 8.5% in Q4 of this year. It is currently 13%.

The Housing Outlook

Much has been made of the recent CMHC Housing Market Outlook report released this week. The gloomy outlook of up to an 18% drop in home prices, a delayed recovery not until 2022, and a 20% arrears rate garnered headlines. First-time homebuyers were warned that housing was no longer a good investment, at least not over a three-year horizon. But the CMHC's own data shows that home prices have risen an average of 5% annually over the past twenty-five years. And though no one's retirement nest egg should consist solely of their residential real estate, a home is one of the few investments that you can actually use. People buy homes for many reasons well beyond wealth accumulation. The pride of ownership and lifestyle choice dominates the decision to buy for many.

Also this week, the Governor of the Bank of Canada suggested that the doomsters were overly pessimistic and asserted his view that the economy would recover from its medically induced coma much faster than the pessimists were suggesting. Clearly, none of us have a crystal ball, nor have we ever before experienced a pandemic recession. While we rise from the abyss, the pain may well be far from over. People are still losing jobs and many businesses continue to sink. Any recovery is dependent on whether the virus cases keep slowing and whether there is a second wave of infections.

But oil prices have risen sharply, a major boon for Alberta and some high-frequency data have improved. The stock market is well off its lows, interest rates have fallen sharply and the qualifying rate for mortgage stress tests has fallen to 4.94%. Actual mortgage rates are near record lows and are likely to remain low for the foreseeable future.

In time, immigration to Canada will restart, and foreign students will return. New businesses are blossoming even now and many sectors will continue to advance. To name a few, we are seeing burgeoning growth in telemedicine, artificial intelligence, big data analysis, cloud services, cybersecurity, 5G, home entertainment, virtual everything, home fitness, DYI renovations, indeed, DIY anything.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper and originally published on her newsletter.

Risks to Economic Outlook “Overblown,” But Rates to Stay Low: Poloz

Mon, 25 May 2020 15:47:52 GMT

Canada’s economy may prove surprisingly resilient in its recovery following the COVID-19 lockdown, according to Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz.

In his final press conference before stepping down as BoC Governor next month, Poloz said, “I’m relatively optimistic…compared with what the talk is.”

His more positive assessment comes just one week after the head of the CMHC shocked many with a surprisingly bearish forecast for Canada’s economic prospects.

While Poloz said the central bank needs to be prepared for any range of outcomes, he remains confident that the Bank’s extraordinary fiscal stimulus measures—including cutting rates to near-zero and injecting more than $300 billion into financial markets—will allow large parts of the economy and many Canadians to pick up where they left off prior to the crisis.

“We have to be able to manage the risks around those things, so I’m not going to dismiss” pessimistic scenarios, Poloz said during an online media roundtable. “But, me personally, I do think on balance what I’m hearing, the flow that I’m hearing, is a little too dire, a little bit overblown.”

Poloz added that he doesn’t see this economic crisis as following the same path as previous recessions or depressions, largely due to the historic income supplements provided by the government, mortgage payment deferrals provided by the banks and other lenders, and the Bank of Canada’s foray into quantitative easing.

Additionally, he noted that the current economic crisis was caused by government-imposed shutdowns as opposed to behavioural factors. As a result, the economy is currently tracking the Bank’s best-case recovery scenario of a sharp drop in output of 15%.

Once the economy is fully “turned back on,” in the coming weeks, “you should see a very rapid return to production,” he added.

When asked about a potential second wave of the virus, Poloz said the economic impact could be similar to that estimated in the Bank’s worst-cast economic scenario, where Q2 GDP plunges by 30% compared to Q4 2019.

Interest Rates to Remain Low

Canada’s key lending rate is currently at 0.25% following the 150 basis points in interest rate cuts the Bank delivered in March. And Poloz suggested rates will remain historically low for the foreseeable future.

“We are in an era where interest rates are probably going to stay low, for demographic reasons and economic growth reasons. I don’t know how low really, but they’re just not going to be like where they were 20 years ago or 30 years ago,” Poloz said. “So central banks will have less room to maneuver.”

There has been speculation as to whether they may yet fall further.

Overnight index swaps markets are currently pricing in a 17% chance of a quarter-point cut at the Bank’s June meeting, and a 25% chance of a cut before the end of the year.

Senior RBC economist Josh Nye agreed with the BoC’s assessment of a “reasonable bounce-back in economic activity once containment measures are lifted,” but cautioned that a full recovery could be years away, which would work to suppress interest rates longer term.

“Excess supply should keep inflation below the BoC’s target (and) monetary policy is currently focused on improving financial market functioning,” Nye wrote . “But as we enter the recovery phase, QE and low interest rates will be relied upon to stimulate growth.”

This article was written by Steve Huebl and published on Canadian Mortgage Trends May 25th 2020

CMHC's Latest Outlook

Fri, 22 May 2020 00:00:00 GMT

Up to 18% Drop in Home Prices, 20% Arrears Rate

The head of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation delivered a particularly gloomy forecast while testifying remotely before the House of Commons Finance Committee on Tuesday.

Among those predictions, CMHC CEO Evan Siddall said:

Home prices could fall from their peak by 9% to 18% over the next year
Mortgage arrears could top 20%
Mortgage deferrals could jump to 20% from 12% by September
Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to rise from 99% pre-COVID to 130% by Q3
The debt-to-disposable income ratio “will” soar from the current 176% to 230% through 2021
And he hinted at a policy change of raising the minimum down payment to 10% from 5%, saying it would offer “more of a cushion against possible losses”

All of this could happen “if our economy has not recovered sufficiently,” according to Siddall.

“The resulting combination of higher mortgage debt, declining house prices and increased unemployment is cause for concern for Canada’s longer-term financial stability,” he said in his prepared remarks .

He added that a “debt deferral cliff” is coming this fall when mortgage payment deferral programs come to an end and people need to start making payments again. As a result, CMHC said mortgage arrears could soar to 20% of all mortgages.

In comparison, the Bank of Canada currently expects the arrears rate to peak at 0.80% by the third quarter of 2021.

A Move to 10% Minimum Down Payments?

Siddall also addressed potential losses for those putting the minimum 5% down on their home purchases.

“Unless we act, a first-time homebuyer purchasing a $300,000 home with a 5% down payment stands to lose over $45,000 on their $15,000 investment if prices fall just 10%,” he said, adding those calculations include the mortgage insurance premium and costs associated with a forced sale.

“In comparison, a 10% down payment offers more of a cushion against possible losses…We are therefore evaluating whether we should change our underwriting policies in light of developing market conditions.”

Currently, 10% down payments are only required on the portion of a home price above $500,000.

Reaction to CMHC’s Forecasts

Some of CMHC’s forecasts deviate significantly from many other industry estimates. For example, RBC and Capital Economics expect a 5% decline in home prices compared to last year, while CIBC is forecasting a 5-10% decline. While Moody’s expects a baseline decline of 8%, its worst-case scenarios allow for a 20-30% decline by 2022, with recoveries forecast by the middle to latter part of the decade.

Responding to Siddall’s claim to these forecasts will play out if the economy fails to recover “sufficiently,” CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal told the Globe & Mail: “That’s a very broad statement…Is it a worst-case scenario, or the base case? I think he was highlighting a worst-case scenario,” he said.

Meanwhile, BMO’s Douglas Porter called the agency’s 18% home price decline estimate “oddly specific” due to the large degree of outlook uncertainty.

RBC economists added weight to Siddall’s musings about a potentially higher minimum down payment: “…Mr. Siddall’s views are respected within Ottawa. As a result, we think there is a reasonable chance that higher minimum down payments may happen.” They add that, should that happen, “the magnitude and timing are unclear, especially since any change might further weaken the economy or at the very least is likely to prolong a recovery in housing market activity.”

In closing, Siddall noted that “our support for homeownership cannot be unlimited.”

“If housing affordability is our aim, as surely it must be, then there must be a limit to the demand we help to create, especially when supply isn’t keeping up.”

He acknowledged that rapid house-price gains over the past 20 years have provided the average homeowner with a tax-free gain of $340,000 in the value of their home, he added, “$300,000 of that gain has been created by increased borrowing. These house prices and debt levels are increasingly out of reach for young people.”

This article was written by Steve Huebl and originally published on Canadian Mortgage Trends on May 21st 2020.

Canadian Home Sales and New Listings Plunge in April 2020

Wed, 20 May 2020 20:18:08 GMT

The pandemic shutdown has put every sector of the economy into a medically induced coma, so, of course, the housing sector is no exception. Data released this morning from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed national home sales fell a record 56.8% in April, compared to an already depressed March, in the first full month of COVOD-19 lockdown (see chart below). Transactions were down across the country.

Among Canada's largest markets, sales fell by 66.2% in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), 64.4% in Montreal, 57.9% in Greater Vancouver, 54.8% in the Fraser Valley, 53.1% in Calgary, 46.6% in Edmonton, 42% in Winnipeg, 59.8% in Hamilton-Burlington and 51.5% in Ottawa.

The residential real estate industry is not standing still, however. Technological innovation is creating new ways of buying and selling homes. According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA's Chief Economist, "Preliminary data for May suggests things may have already started to pick up a bit for both sales and new listings, in line with evidence that realtors and their clients have adopted new and existing virtual technology tools. These tools have allowed quite a bit of essential business to safely continue, and will likely remain key for some time."

I have heard agents discussing software that virtually "stages" properties, allowing potential buyers to see the possibilities of existing and renovated floor plans and options in decor and design. The software replaces the need for expensive "physical" staging and can be far more creative. Where there is challenge, there is opportunity, and the people that create and adopt these innovative virtual solutions could be big winners.

Keeping the lid on price pressures, the number of newly listed homes across Canada declined by 55.7% m-o-m in April. The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index declined by only 0.6% last month, the first decline since last May. While some downward pressure on prices is not surprising, the comparatively small change underscores the extent to which the bigger picture is that both buying and selling is currently on pause.

Mortgage Qualifying Rate Set To Drop

The mortgage qualifying rate, the so-called Big Bank posted rate, has been above 5% since the OSFI stress test began on January 1, 2018. Despite dramatic declines in the government of Canada bond yield, which currently hovers at a mere 0.388%, and a huge fall in contract mortgage rates, the banks have kept their posted rates elevated. The minimum stress test rate began in 2018 at 5.34%, then finally fell to 5.19% and more recently to 5.04%--all still at a historically wide margin above market-determined rates.

In the past week, RBC and BMO have cut their 5-year posted rates slightly further to 4.94%. If no other banks follow, the Bank of Canada's OSFI stress test rate will fall to 4.99%. If at least one otherl bank goes to 4.94%, the qualifying rate will drop to 4.94%. Every little bit helps.

Highlights of the Bank of Canada 'Financial System Review' (FSR)

With the first news of the COVID-19 pandemic threat, the BoC report said that "uncertainty about just how bad things could get created shock waves in financial markets, leading to a widespread flight to cash and difficulty selling assets. Policy actions are working to:

restore market functioning
ensure that financial institutions have adequate liquidity
give Canadian households and businesses access to the credit they need"

The Bank of Canada's actions have put a floor under the economy. These along with the federal government spending initiatives and the mortgage deferral program have cushioned the blow to households and businesses. Governor Poloz said, "our goal in the short-term is to help Canadian households and businesses bridge the crisis period. Our longer-term goal is to provide a strong foundation for a recovery in jobs and growth."

With the economic outlook remaining highly uncertain, the BoC erred on the side of caution in projecting mortgage arrears and non-performing business loans based on the more severe economic scenario it laid out in the April Monetary Policy Report. The pessimistic reading would be that even with policymakers’ extraordinary actions, that scenario would see mortgage and business loan delinquencies eclipse previous peaks. A more optimistic reading would be that policy support has prevented a significantly worse outcome, and a resilient financial system will be able to absorb losses and leave the foundation in place for an eventual economic recovery. And, as Governor Poloz mentioned, a better economic scenario is still within reach as many provinces are beginning to gradually re-open their economies.

The projections in today’s FSR are based on a scenario in which Canadian GDP is 30% lower in Q2 and recovers slowly thereafter. In that scenario, mortgage arrears are projected to increase to 0.8% by mid-2021 from 0.25% at the end of 2019--nearly double the peak in arrears seen in 2009. Meanwhile, non-performing business loans are forecast to rise to 6.4% at the end of this year from 1% at the end of last year, significantly higher than past peaks of less than 5% in 2003 and 2010.

The upshot is that while we might see a significant increase in mortgage arrears and troubled loans over the next two years in this pessimistic economic scenario, these outcomes would have been much worse without the extraordinary programs that have been put in place to support businesses and households. That has important implications for the banking sector. The BoC’s analysis suggests that, with these policy measures, large bank’s existing capital buffers should be sufficient to absorb losses. Without those interventions, “banks would be faring much worse, with important negative effects on the availability of credit to households and businesses.”

Households:

1 in 5 households don’t have enough cash or liquid assets to cover two months of mortgage payments
Government support programs (CERB payments and CEWS wage subsidies) will cover a large share of households’ “core” spending (food, shelter, and telecoms)
Loan payment deferrals (banks have allowed more than 700,000 households to delay mortgage payments) and new borrowing can help offset remaining income losses
Still, some households are likely to fall behind on their debt payments (first credit cards and auto loans, then mortgages)—something we’re already seeing in Alberta and Saskatchewan

Businesses:

There have been some signs of reduced funding stress in April: The Bank of Canada's bankers' acceptance program is shrinking, the drawdowns of credit lines have slowed as some borrowers are repaying, and corporate debt issuance picked up significantly in April after ceasing in March.
Surveys show higher-than-normal rejection rates for small- and medium-sized businesses requesting additional funding from financial institutions
Upcoming corporate debt refinancing needs are in line with historical levels, but many borrowers will face in increased costs of funds owing to elevated corporate risk spreads
Nearly three-quarters of investment-grade corporate bonds are rated BBB (the lowest investment grade rating)—downgrades would double the stock of high-yield debt and significantly increase funding costs for those borrowers
Firms in the industries most affected by COVID-19 tend to have smaller cash buffers, and a sharp drop in revenues will make it difficult to meet fixed costs including debt payments. What started as a cash flow problem could develop into a solvency issue for some businesses
The energy sector is facing particular challenges: it has had to rely more on credit lines, has the highest refinancing needs over the next six months and faces the most potential downgrades

Banks:

BoC’s term repos have provided ample liquidity to the banking system and reduced funding costs, hence the drop in some banks' posted and contract mortgage rates
Take-up of term repos has slowed in recent weeks—an indication of improved market functioning
Regulators have eased capital and liquidity requirements

Governments:

The BoC’s asset purchases have helped improve liquidity in the key Government of Canada securities market (the baseline for many other bond markets)
The FSR made little mention of government debt sustainability, but in his press conference Governor Poloz noted that overall government debt levels are similar to 20 years ago, and federal debt is significantly lower, giving the federal government plenty of room to maneuver

Bottom Line:
Of course, the pandemic shutdown has strained the financial wherewithal of many households and businesses. That was deemed the price we must pay to mitigate the severe health threat and contain its spread. The BoC report acknowledges the economic fallout of the necessary measures and promises to take additional actions to assure the economy returns to its full potential growth path as soon as feasibly possible. Cushioning the blow for those most in need.

Nevertheless, there are businesses that will close permanently and others that will scoop up declining competitors. Some will benefit from the new opportunities created by social distancing, enhanced sanitation, remote activity, new forms of entertainment and advances in healthcare. Others will no doubt die, although many of these companies were at death's door before the pandemic emerged. Creative destruction is always painful for the losers, but it opens the way for many new winners and those existing businesses and individuals that are creative enough to adapt quickly to the changing environment.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was originally published on her newsletter.

What you Need to Know About Accessing Home Equity - COVID-19

Wed, 13 May 2020 16:56:09 GMT

As the initial shock of living through a global pandemic wears off and restrictions start to loosen, it would seem that Canada is en route to de-COVID soon (time will tell).

If you’ve been waiting until things flatten out before making any significant financial decisions, now might be a good to time start working through your options. If those options include accessing the equity from your home; for whatever reason, here are some of the things to consider moving forward.

Expect heightened scrutiny

Due to COVID-19, lenders are currently dealing with a tremendous amount of uncertainty, as many Canadians are still out of work and deferring mortgage payments, appraisal values are in question, and sales in the housing market have slowed down considerably. And for most lenders, the best way to deal with uncertainty is by being cautious.

Moving forward, you can expect heightened scrutiny on any mortgage transaction. Qualification standards are no longer hard and fast rules, but rather guidelines. So although you may qualify to access up to 80% of your property’s value based on the government regulations, depending on the lender, they might only be comfortable lending to 75% or less.

Part of this heightened scrutiny will also include a more in-depth assessment of your employment. Lenders want to see evidence of stable income to ensure you have the means to make your new mortgage payments.

So if you’ve experienced any type of job loss or reduced hours, if you have deferred your mortgage payments, or if you’ve accessed any government relief programs, qualifying to refinance your mortgage won’t be a walk in the park.

55+? Consider a reverse mortgage

For those Canadians 55+ who have significant home equity, a reverse mortgage is worth serious consideration. Qualifying for a reverse mortgage is way less complicated compared to traditional mortgage financing as there are no income or credit requirements. Any money borrowed is tax-free and does not impact CPP or OAS qualifications.

Instead of making regular payments to reduce the total balance outstanding, the interest is added to the total mortgage amount and increases each year.

Accessing home equity, without having to make regular payments, has proven to be the ultimate in cash flow management and a useful tool in helping older Canadians live their desired lifestyle.

You need a plan

Despite the uncertainty, mortgage lenders are still in the business of lending money. It is still possible to refinance your mortgage and access your home equity, but if a lender assesses you’re using your home as a personal ATM, it’s probably not going to work out.

So, the best plan of action is to have a plan of action. That starts with working with an independent mortgage professional who understands the lending landscape and can provide you with mortgage options at many different lenders.

If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime, together we can look at all your options and figure out a plan going forward.

Historic Job Losses in April in Canada as the Economy Bottoms

Fri, 08 May 2020 16:21:54 GMT

Pandemic Batters Canadian Jobs Market

A Recession Like No Other

The Canadian economy has been put in a medically induced coma. Never before in modern history have we seen a forced shutdown in the global economy, so not surprisingly, the incoming data for April are terrible. There is a good chance, however, that April will mark the bottom in economic activity as regions begin to ease restrictions.

The economy will revive, but the psychological shock is perhaps the most unnerving. Rest assured, however, that as severe as this is, there are real opportunities here along with the challenges. There are economic winners, not just losers. More on that later.

Employment in Canada collapsed in April, with 2 million jobs lost, taking the unemployment rate to 13.0%, just a tick below the prior postwar record of 13.2% in 1982 (see chart below). The record decline is on the heels of the 1 million job loss in March, bringing the cumulative two-month total to 15.7% of the pre-virus workforce.

Economists had been expecting double the job destruction--a 4 million position decline in April--in reaction to the reports that over 7 million Canadians had applied for CERB. Today's news reflected labour market conditions during the week of April 12 to April 18. The applications for CERB are more recent, so we may well see these additional losses reflected in the May report.

The 13% unemployment rate underestimates the actual level of joblessness. In April, the unemployment rate would have been 17.8% if the labour force participation rate had not fallen. Compared to a year ago, there were 1.5 million more workers on permanent layoff not looking for work in April - and so not counted as unemployed.

Also, the number of people who were employed but worked less than half of their usual hours for reasons related to COVID-19 increased by 2.5 million from February to April. As of the week of April 12, the cumulative effect of the COVID-19 economic shutdown—the number of Canadians who were either not employed or working substantially reduced hours—was 5.5 million, or more than one-quarter of February's employment level.

In April, both full-time (-1,472,000; -9.7%) and part-time (-522,000; -17.1%) employment fell. Cumulative losses since February totalled 1,946,000 (-12.5%) in full-time work and 1,059,000 (-29.6%) in part-time employment.

Decline In Employment Is Unprecedented

The magnitude of the decline in employment since February (-15.7%) far exceeds declines observed in previous labour market downturns. For example, the deep 1981-1982 recession resulted in a total employment decline of 612,000 (-5.4%) over approximately 17 months.

More of the drop in employment now is the result of temporary layoffs. In April, almost all (97%) of the newly-unemployed were on temporary layoff, whereas in previous recessions, most of the dismissals were considered permanent.

In April, more than one-third (36.7%) of the potential labour force did not work or worked less than half of their usual hours, illustrating the continuing impact of the COVID-19 economic shutdown on the labour market. But job losses were also still weighted, on balance, more heavily in lower-wage jobs. Average wage growth for those remaining in employment spiked sharply higher as a result to 11% above year-ago levels.

All provinces have been hard-hit

Employment declined in all provinces for the second month in a row. Compared with February, employment dropped by more than 10% in all regions, led by Quebec (-18.7% or -821,000). Quebec leads the country in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.

The unemployment rate rose markedly in all provinces in April. In Quebec, the rate rose to 17.0%, the highest level since comparable data became available in 1976, and the highest among all provinces (see table below). The number of unemployed people increased at a faster pace in Quebec (+101.0% or +367,000) than in other regions.

Employment dropped sharply from February to April in each of Canada's three largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs). As a proportion of February employment, Montréal recorded the largest decline (-18.0%; -404,000), followed by Vancouver (-17.4%; -256,000) and Toronto (-15.2%; -539,000).

In Montréal, the unemployment rate was 18.2% in April, an increase of 13.4 percentage points since February. In comparison, the unemployment rate in Montréal peaked at 10.2% during the 2008/2009 recession. In Toronto, the unemployment rate was 11.1% in April (up 5.6 percentage points since February), and in Vancouver, it was 10.8% (up 6.2 percentage points).

Employment Losses By Sector

In March, almost all employment losses were in the services-producing sector. In April, by contrast, employment losses were proportionally larger in goods (-15.8%; -621,000) than in services (-9.6%; -1.4 million). Losses in the goods-producing sector were led by construction (-314,000; -21.1%) and manufacturing (-267,000; -15.7%).

Within the services sector, employment losses continued in several industries, led by wholesale and retail trade (-375,000; -14.0%) and accommodation and food services (-321,000; -34.3%).

Industries that continued to be relatively less affected by the COVID-19 economic shutdown included utilities; public administration; and finance, insurance and real estate.

In both the services-producing and the goods-producing sectors, the employment decreases observed in the two months since February were proportionally larger than the losses observed during each of the three significant labour market downturns since 1980.

As economic activity resumes industry by industry following the COVID-19 economic shutdown, the time required for recovery will be a critical question.

After the previous downturns, employment in services recovered relatively quickly, returning to pre-downturn levels in an average of four months. On the other hand, it took an average of more than six years for goods-producing employment to return to pre-recession levels following the 1981-1982 and 1990-1992 recessions. After the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, it took 10 years for employment in the goods-producing sector to return to pre-crisis levels.

Green Shoots

As bad as things are, there is some evidence that the economy is approaching a bottom. Business shutdowns are easing in most provinces, and while it will be some time before we see a complete reopening, early signs of improvement are evident. Business sentiment appears to have improved somewhat towards the end of April, as evidenced by data from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. The Royal Bank economists report that credit card spending looked less weak at the end of April. Housing starts for April held up better than expected. And, most importantly, the spread of coronavirus has eased, and regions are starting to relax some of the rules to flatten the curve.

Concerning the housing market, before the pandemic, we were going into the spring season with the prospect of record sales activity in much of the country. Aside from oil country--Alberta and Saskatchewan--all indications were for a red-hot housing market. So the underlying fundamentals for housing remain positive as the economy recovers. How long that will take depends on the course of the virus and whether we see a second wave in late fall.

Interest rates have plummeted. Thanks to the 150 basis point decline in the prime rate, variable rate mortgage rates have fallen for the first time since late 2018. Once the Bank of Canada was able to establish enough liquidity in financial markets, even fixed-rate mortgage rates have fallen.

The posted mortgage rate appears stuck at 5.04%, far above contract rates; but with any luck at all, this qualifying rate for mortgage stress tests will ease in the coming months. The Bank of Canada will remain extremely accommodative. In my view, interest rates will not rise until 2022.

Opportunities--There Will Be Winners

Even now, some businesses are enjoying a surge in revenues and profitability. Just to put a more positive note on this period of rapid change, I jotted down a list of companies that are thriving. Top of the list is Shopify, a Canadian company that helps businesses provide online shopping services. Shopify is now the most highly valued company in Canada, as measured by its stock market valuation, surpassing the Royal Bank.

Many who never relied on online shopping have become converts during the lockdown. Amazon is another business that is benefiting, but Amazon needs more competition, and many Canadians would welcome some homegrown online rivals.

Loblaws, with its groceries and drug stores, is booming. So are the cleaning products companies like Clorox and paper products company Kimberly Clark. Staying at home has boosted sales at Wayfair, the online furniture and home products site. Peloton and suppliers of dumbbells and other fitness equipment are seeing increased revenues as people look for in-home alternatives to the locked-down gyms and health clubs.

Demand for cloud services has boosted revenues at Microsoft and Dropbox. Home entertainment is booming, think Netflix and YouTube. Zoom and Cisco (Webex) are also big winners. Qualcomm stands to gain from a more rapid move to 5G. And Accenture and Booz Allen, among other business and government consultants, are busy helping companies reinvent their operations in a post-pandemic world.

In times of enormous uncertainty and volatility, people need expert advice and hand-holding, particularly concerning their finances. That's where mortgage professionals come in along with financial planners, realtors, accountants and tax lawyers.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC's Chief Economist, and was originally published on her newsletter.

2020 Mortgage Forecasts

Tue, 05 May 2020 16:38:07 GMT

Defaults to Jump, Originations to Tumble, Sales to “Suffer”

There’s no doubt that Canada’s mortgage and real estate industries will suffer in the short term due to the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. But how long will the pain last and how far out might the recovery be?

Those are questions being asked by many in the industry, and some have put forth their best guesses. Here’s a look at the latest mortgage-related forecasts for the remainder of 2020 and into 2021…

Mortgage Arrears to Rise in 2021?

So long as mortgage deferrals and government income assistance remain in place, no major increases are expected in Canadian mortgage arrears in the short term.

Once mortgage deferrals expire and fiscal stimulus supporting households starts to run out, the arrears rate could jump as much as 50%, peaking by Q1 2021, according to some forecasts.

“Assuming government support tapers off in 2021, and based on the historical relationship between employment and mortgage arrears, we see potential for the mortgage arrears rate to average ~35 bps in 2021 vs. 24 bps currently (as of October 2019),” according to TD.

RBC Capital Markets reached the same conclusion, saying, “…It is unlikely that we will see a material increase in delinquency rates until mortgage deferrals expire.”

By comparison, mortgage arrears reached a peak of 0.45% during the financial crisis of 2007-08—still well below the delinquency rate of 11%+ seen in the U.S. during the financial crisis, however.

But some say signs of strain are already starting to appear in certain credit segments.

“There’s early tentative credit card data coming in from credit card trust portfolios. And as expected, the arrears rates are starting to rise [and] the loss rates are starting to move up,” Ben Rabidoux, president at North Cove Advisors, told yahoo! Finance .

Mortgage Originations to Slump

The mortgage industry as a whole is expected to face some strong headwinds “over the near-term as employment trends weaken, credit loss provisioning moves higher, and housing / mortgage activity pulls back materially,” TD noted in a report.

New mortgage originations could fall by as much as 35-40% in the second and third quarters of 2020, TD said, with a recovery taking hold by the fall.

On the positive side, “mortgage spreads have widened out and deposit costs have come down, suggesting funding conditions and liquidity has improved for the mortgage lenders,” TD noted.

Home Sales, Prices to Suffer Short Term Pain

Canadian real estate is currently in a “deep freeze,” with both buyers and sellers having moved to the sidelines to wait out the uncertainty of the ongoing pandemic, according to TD Economics .

“In light of the pandemic, we envision Canadian home sales remaining below their pre-virus level for the remainder of the year. Sales are poised to plunge at a historic pace in April, while gradually recovering their lost steps in subsequent months as buyers remain cautious,” notes economist Rishi Sondhi, adding that this forecast assumes a gradual re-opening of economies throughout the month of May.

“Under these assumptions, Canadian home prices suffer an outsized decline in the second quarter. After which, national average home price growth should proceed at a positive, but subdued pace for the remainder of the year.”

This forecast is similar to others we’ve reported on previously , which anticipate modest price declines in the short term before returning once again to positive growth.

Capital Economics economist Stephen Brown forecasts a 5% decline in prices in the coming months, while RBC Economics’ Robert Hogue expects Canada’s composite benchmark prices to fall briefly over the second half of 2020 by an average of 2.9% year-over-year.

Moody’s, on the other hand, is forecasting a 10% decline in home prices from their peak.

This article was written by Steve Huebl and originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends on May 5th 2020.

What you Need to Know About Appraisals During COVID-19

Wed, 29 Apr 2020 18:56:39 GMT

If you’re looking to purchase or refinance a property while most of Canada is self-isolating to stop the spread of COVID-19, you probably have some questions around how the pandemic is impacting appraisals.

If you’re looking to put a plan together that involves mortgage financing, the best place to start is to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts directly. We would love to work with you!

However, here a few questions that you may be asking about appraisals and some general information.

1. Can I get an appraisal without having someone come into my property?

Rest assured that to prevent the spread of COVID-19, it is possible to have an appraisal completed without anyone coming into your personal space to view and assess the property.

Instead, the appraiser will use information from MLS data, municipal permits, and property assessment information, as well as information provided by the client or owner to find the property’s value.

Be aware that as the provincial government starts reopening and loosening regulations around social distancing and self-isolation, this might change.

2. Is there anything I can provide to assist with the appraisal?

As the appraiser won’t be able to assess the property physically, consider providing some interior photos. Your pictures could then be included in the report in place of photos that they would typically take themselves.

Alternatively, if you’re a little more tech-savvy, consider a video tour of your property carried out by a Zoom Call, FaceTime, WhatsApp, or Marco Polo.

In these times, appraisers are very flexible; it’s a good idea to be available, and as helpful as possible.

3. Will the banks accept an appraisal if the property wasn’t physically inspected?

As we’re living in unprecedented times, the real estate industry is taking Public Health Authority guidelines and advice seriously and is working together to help stop the spread of COVID-19. This includes adapting the way business is done, and accepting that alternatives to the ordinary course of business may be required.

At this time, most lenders are accepting property valuation from accredited appraisers, even if the property hasn’t been physically inspected. Your team of real estate professionals will be able to provide you with guidance at the appropriate time.

4. Are property values coming in lower because of COVID-19

While this is a tough question to answer, here are the facts.

An appraiser’s job is to assess the property to establish a value, so that a lender can confidently provide mortgage financing while protecting their investment, making sure there is sufficient equity in case of default.

Establishing property value includes scrutinizing comparable listings; assessing what has sold, at what price, within a reasonable time frame. While also considering how long that property sat on the market.

In the middle of a global pandemic, nothing can be considered normal.

Unfortunately, as we’re living through a time of uncertainty, pessimism and conservatism will most likely lead to lower appraisal values.

As MLS data will undoubtedly show a significant drop in sales activity during COVID-19, it might be harder for appraisers to find “comparable properties” to use in assessing another property’s value. However, if the values of the properties that did sell remain steady, there is cause to believe that appraised values could remain stable as well. Only time will tell.

If you have any more questions, please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts directly.

Where Are House Prices Headed?

Mon, 27 Apr 2020 15:54:32 GMT

Given the sharp drop-off in sales in recent weeks, many are speculating as to what that means for house prices in the coming months.

Home prices started the year off hot, threatening to test 2016’s red-hot levels with growth of 8.7% year-over-year, and that strength continued right up into March.

The Canadian Real Estate Association reported a 15.2% year-over-year increase in prices in March, with transactions up in about 60% of local markets.
The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, which measures changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, reported a 3.8% year-over-year increase in prices — its strongest pace since June 2018.

But plummeting sales and record unemployment due to COVID-19 are now threatening to drag those prices back down.

“For now, we have pencilled in a 5% drop in nationwide house prices in the next few months. That is based on the assumption that there will be some forced sellers in the near term,” noted Stephen Brown of Capital Economics.

“That will include those who had already bought a new home without selling their previous one, which was becoming increasingly common in Toronto, and those investors that were previously targeting the short-term rental market and have now suffered steep hits to their income.”

For its part, TRREB is forecasting average prices in 2020 to remain near 2019 levels, “buoyed by the 15% year-over-year growth experienced in Q1 2020.”

“As we recover from this temporary downturn, potentially later this year, homebuyers will move off the sidelines in increasing numbers as they satisfy pent-up demand for ownership housing,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB’s Chief Market Analyst. “Increasingly, these buyers will be faced with the persistent lack of listings inventory that was a serious problem before the onset of COVID-19.

RBC Economics’ Robert Hogue said he expects “some degree of support to hold initially as both buyers and sellers go into hiatus,” but that within a matter of months, surging unemployment and market illiquidity will “compel a growing number of tight-squeezed sellers to make price concessions.”

He expects Canada’s composite benchmark prices to fall briefly over the second half of 2020 by an average of 2.9% year-over-year. “The surge in activity we expect in 2021 will tilt the scale back in favour of sellers and swing the price dynamics around,” he added.

But not everyone is so certain that market confidence will recover so quickly.

Scott Ingram, a Toronto Real Estate Agent, said in an interview with CBC News he expects April’s full-month sales figures to “fall off a cliff.”

“Not in my time watching the Toronto real estate market have I seen sales slow right down as quickly as this,” he told the CBC. “We don’t know where prices are going… I mean, why would you buy something now if you perceive prices are going to go down in the future, which may very well be.”

This article is a portion of COVID-19’s Impact on Real Estate published on Canadian Mortgage Trends on April 27th, written by Steve Huebl.

3 Things to Know When Getting a Mortgage in COVID-19

Tue, 21 Apr 2020 22:45:36 GMT

If you're thinking about buying a new property, refinancing your existing mortgage, or if your mortgage is up for renewal, you might be wondering if getting a mortgage is even possible amid a global pandemic? Be assured that it is possible, mortgages are being written, and we're open for business (virtually).

Although it may not be business as usual. Mortgage brokers are still brokering, lenders are lending, real estate agents are selling houses, appraisers are appraising (virtually), inspectors are inspecting (some in hazmat suits), while lawyers continue to do what it is that lawyers do. Albeit in a climate of social distancing, with the increased use of technology.

Here are 3 things to consider while you plan for mortgage financing during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Everything is taking more time | Prepare yourself

As almost everyone involved in getting you a mortgage has had to alter the way they regularly do business, entire workforces are shifting from in-person to online. Despite the uptake in technology, things are taking a little longer than usual. Compounded by the fact that lenders are dealing with high submission volumes from clients wanting to defer mortgage payments, processing new mortgage applications can take longer than in previous months.

Your best plan of action is to prepare yourself ahead of time. Everyone is under a lot of pressure, so do everything you can to make sure your proverbial ducks are in a row and that you allow enough time to get everything done. Get as much of your personal documentation together upfront and be as organized as possible, it will go a long way in making for a smooth transaction.

Technology is keeping things running.

While many of the typical steps in the home buying process have been disrupted, with the use of technology, it is possible to buy a home while isolating in COVID-19.

Mortgage, real estate, and lawyer's documents should all be signed online. Although new technology can be scary, e-signatures allow transactions to take place, while doing your part to keep a social distance.

Admittedly, not the same as walking through a property, virtual tours allow you to get a sense of feel for a property more so than simple pictures. A lot of listings should have a virtual tour, while many real estate professionals are hosting virtual open houses, where they can take you on a virtual journey through the property using their phone.

Appraisers aren't required to complete a physical inspection any longer to determine a property's value; instead, everything happens online. An appraiser will use information from MLS data, municipal permits, property assessment information, client or owner information, and any other available source to estimate the physical characteristics of the house interior and the remainder of the property to come up with a valuation.

If you're looking to refinance or renew an existing property, the same is true, with the use of e-signatures and virtual appraisals, you can get a new mortgage, assuming you qualify.

You should expect more scrutiny on your mortgage application!

With over half of Canadians claiming to have lost work due to the COVID-19 coronavirus, it's not surprising that lenders are making a move towards extra scrutiny when assessing your overall application and employment documents. Lenders want to ensure your job stability now but also if things get worse down the line, you have good job prospects in the future.

As far as income goes, in a COVID-19 world, past job performance and income isn't a reliable indicator of future performance and income, everything has changed, and lenders are doing their due diligence. Lenders are becoming more conservative and risk-averse.

Lenders are starting to ask for income documents upfront. There is no use entertaining your mortgage application if they aren't confident about your prospects of employment.

Also, for self-employed borrowers, in addition to the standard required documentation of your past business income, you might be required to provide additional documentation going forward. Including, but not limited to: a description of your business activities, number of employees (including how many are actively working or laid off), current business status (operating or shut down), along with bank statements to prove stable income.

So although it might take a little longer than usual to get a mortgage, and you can most likely expect more scrutiny on your application, with the increased use of technology, mortgage financing is still possible.

If you'd like to discuss your personal financial situation, and how to go about getting a mortgage in these unprecedented economic times, we might not be able to get together in person for a coffee, but we're open for business virtually and would love to help; Contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Bank of Canada Puts the Economy on Life Support

Thu, 16 Apr 2020 00:00:00 GMT

On the heels of a devastating decline in the Canadian economy, the Bank of Canada is taking unprecedented actions. With record job losses, plunging confidence and a shutdown of most businesses, this month's newly released Monetary Policy Report (MPR) is a portrait of extreme financial stress and a sharp and sudden contraction across the globe. COVID-19 and the collapse in oil prices are having a never-before-seen economic impact and policy response.
The Bank's MPR says, "Until the outbreak is contained, a substantial proportion of economic activity will be affected. The suddenness of these effects has created shockwaves in financial markets, leading to a general flight to safety, a sharp repricing of risky assets and a breakdown in the functioning of many markets." It goes on to state, "While the global and Canadian economies are expected to rebound once the medical emergency ends, the timing and strength of the recovery will depend heavily on how the pandemic unfolds and what measures are required to contain it. The recovery will also depend on how households and businesses behave in response. None of these can be forecast with any degree of confidence."

"The Canadian economy was in a solid position ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak but has since been hit by widespread shutdowns and lower oil prices. One early measure of the extent of the damage was an unprecedented drop in employment in March, with more than one million jobs lost across Canada. Many more workers reported shorter hours, and by early April, some six million Canadians had applied for the Canada Emergency Response Benefit."

"The sudden halt in global activity will be followed by regional recoveries at different times, depending on the duration and severity of the outbreak in each region. This means that the global economic recovery, when it comes, could be protracted and uneven."

Today's MPR breaks with tradition. It does not provide a detailed economic forecast. Such forecasts are useless given the degree of uncertainty and the lack of former relevant precedents. However, Bank analysis of alternative scenarios suggests the level of real activity was down 1%-to-3% in the first quarter of this year and will be 15%-to-30% lower in the second quarter than in Q4 of 2019. Inflation is forecast at 0%, mainly owing to the fall in gasoline prices.

"Fiscal programs, designed to expand according to the magnitude of the shock, will help individuals and businesses weather this shutdown phase of the pandemic, and support incomes and confidence leading into the recovery. These programs have been complemented by actions taken by other federal agencies and provincial governments."

The Bank of Canada, along with all other central banks, have taken measures to support the functioning of core financial markets and provide liquidity to financial institutions, including making large-scale asset purchases and sharply lowering interest rates. The Bank reduced overnight interest rates in three steps last month by 150 basis points to 0.25%, which the Bank considers its "effective lower bound". It did not cut this policy rate again today, as promised, believing that negative interest rates are not the appropriate policy response. The Bank has also conducted lending operations to financial institutions and asset purchases in core funding markets, amounting to around $200 billion.

"These actions have served to ease market dysfunction and help keep credit channels open, although they remain strained . The next challenge for markets will be managing increased demand for near-term financing by federal and provincial governments, and businesses and households. The situation calls for special actions by the central bank."

The Bank of Canada, in its efforts to provide liquidity to all strained financial markets, has, in essence, become the buyer of last resort. Under its previously-announced program, the Bank will continue to purchase at least $5 billion in Government of Canada securities per week in the secondary market. It will increase the level of purchases as required to maintain the proper functioning of the government bond market. Also, the Bank is temporarily increasing the amount of Treasury Bills it acquires at auctions to up to 40%, effective immediately.

The Bank announced new measures to provide additional support for Canada's financial system. It will commence a new Provincial Bond Purchase Program of up to $50 billion, to supplement its Provincial Money Market Purchase Program. Further, the Bank is announcing a new Corporate Bond Purchase Program , in which the Bank will acquire up to a total of $10 billion in investment-grade corporate bonds in the secondary market. Both of these programs will be put in place in the coming weeks. Finally, the Bank is further enhancing its term repo facility to permit funding for up to 24 months.

The Bank will support all Canadian financial markets, with the exception of the stock market, and it "stands ready to adjust the scale or duration of its programs if necessary. All the Bank's actions are aimed at helping to bridge the current period of containment and create the conditions for a sustainable recovery and achievement of the inflation target over time."

This is exactly what the central bank needs to do to instill confidence that Canadian financial markets will remain viable. These measures are a warranted offset to panic selling. Too many investors are prone to panic in times like these, which has a snowball effect that must be avoided. As long as people are confident that the Bank of Canada is a backstop, panic can be mitigated. The Bank of Canada deserves high marks for responding effectively to this crisis and remaining on guard . Governor Poloz and the Governing Council saw it early for what it is, a Black Swan of enormous proportions.

As a result, Canada will not only weather the pandemic storm better than many other countries, but we will come out of this economic and financial tsunami in better condition.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was originally published as part of her client newsletter.

Bank of Canada Maintains Overnight Rate Target and Unveils New Market Operations

Wed, 15 Apr 2020 14:12:21 GMT

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at ¼ percent, which the Bank considers its effective lower bound. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. The Bank also announced new measures to provide additional support to Canada’s financial system.

The necessary efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic have caused a sudden and deep contraction in economic activity and employment worldwide. In financial markets, this has driven a flight to safety and a sharp repricing of a wide range of assets. It has also pushed down prices for commodities, especially oil. In this environment, the Canadian dollar has depreciated since January, although by less than many other currencies. The sudden halt in global activity will be followed by regional recoveries at different times, depending on the duration and severity of the outbreak in each region. This means that the global economic recovery, when it comes, could be protracted and uneven.

The Canadian economy was in a solid position ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak, but has since been hit by widespread shutdowns and lower oil prices. One early measure of the extent of the damage was an unprecedented drop in employment in March, with more than one million jobs lost across Canada. Many more workers reported shorter hours, and by early April some six million Canadians had applied for the Canada Emergency Response Benefit.

The outlook is too uncertain at this point to provide a complete forecast. However, Bank analysis of alternative scenarios suggests the level of real activity was down 1-3 percent in the first quarter of 2020, and will be 15-30 percent lower in the second quarter than in fourth-quarter 2019. CPI inflation is expected to be close to 0 percent in the second quarter of 2020. This is primarily due to the transitory effects of lower gasoline prices.

The pandemic-driven contraction has prompted decisive policy action to support individuals and businesses and to lay the foundation for economic recovery once containment measures start to ease. Fiscal programs, designed to expand according to the magnitude of the shock, will help individuals and businesses weather this shutdown phase of the pandemic, and support incomes and confidence leading into the recovery. These programs have been complemented by actions taken by other federal agencies and provincial governments.

For its part, the Bank of Canada has taken measures to improve market function so that monetary policy actions have their intended effect on the economy. This helps ensure that households and businesses continue to have access to the credit they need to bridge this difficult time, and that lower interest rates find their way to ultimate borrowers. The Bank has lowered its target for the overnight rate 150 basis points over the last three weeks, to its effective lower bound. It has also conducted lending operations to financial institutions and asset purchases in core funding markets amounting to around $200 billion.

These actions have served to ease market dysfunction and help keep credit channels open, although they remain strained. The next challenge for markets will be managing increased demand for near-term financing by federal and provincial governments, and businesses and households. The situation calls for special actions by the central bank. To this end, the Bank is furthering its efforts with several important steps.

Under its previously-announced program, the Bank will continue to purchase at least $5 billion in Government of Canada securities per week in the secondary market, and will increase the level of purchases as required to maintain proper functioning of the government bond market. Also, the Bank is temporarily increasing the amount of Treasury Bills it acquires at auctions to up to 40 percent, effective immediately.

The Bank is also announcing today the development of a new Provincial Bond Purchase Program of up to $50 billion, to supplement its Provincial Money Market Purchase Program. Further, the Bank is announcing a new Corporate Bond Purchase Program, in which the Bank will acquire up to a total of $10 billion in investment grade corporate bonds in the secondary market. Both of these programs will be put in place in the coming weeks. Finally, the Bank is further enhancing its term repo facility to permit funding for up to 24 months.

These measures will work in combination to ease pressure on Canadian borrowers. As containment restrictions are eased and economic activity resumes, fiscal and monetary policy actions will help underpin confidence and stimulate spending by consumers and businesses to restore growth. The Bank’s Governing Council stands ready to adjust the scale or duration of its programs if necessary. All the Bank’s actions are aimed at helping to bridge the current period of containment and create the conditions for a sustainable recovery and achievement of the inflation target over time.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 3, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on July 15, 2020.

Here is a copy of the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report for April 2020.

Into COVID-19, Perspective from Canadian Lenders

Tue, 14 Apr 2020 15:57:31 GMT

In a recent series of panel discussions put on by Mortgage Professionals Canada, a cross-section of some of the country’s top lenders and insurers provided updates on how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted operations and shaped their outlook.

Similar to the previous sessions , the overwhelming message continued to be one of empathy towards struggling borrowers, as well as resilience and positivity for the future.

Here are some of the key takeaways from the additional panel discussions…

Adapting to the New World

Boris Bozic, Founder and CEO, Merix Financial: “We executed our business continuity plan with great efficiency. In 48 hours, we had 98% of our staff working from home and fully functional. Just as we settled in, the universe decided to conspire against all of us. A global pandemic, a major technology failure (Filogix denial of service attack) and rising interest rates. The fallout was a little messy.” Bozic added that at the same time they saw submissions subsequently reach “unprecedented” levels.
Yousry Bissada, President and CEO of Home Trust: “Like every other lender, we were inundated with 300-400% more calls right off the mark. The number one question initially was ‘If I got in trouble, would you take care of me?’ and the answer is ‘absolutely’…Home is in a good position. We are well-capitalized…and in our case, having gone through what home did in 2017 unintentionally trained a lot of our employees on how to, as soon as you hit the alarm, just say ‘battle stations everybody’ and you know where to go.”
Stuart Levings, President and CEO, Genworth Canada: On the subject of mortgage deferrals and the role brokers can play, Levings said, “Absolutely it’s important for brokers to be thinking through what’s the right counsel for borrowers. And right now, it’s not a given that six-months deferral is the right answer for every borrower. It’s not free, you are going to be paying more interest and there is capitalization of that interest.
Andy Charles, President and CEO, Canada Guaranty: In terms of working with the other mortgage insurers (CMHC and Genworth), Charles said, “I have never seen this level of cooperation in terms of ensuring consistency of policy, consistency of messaging and overall working in a manner that helps streamline the current operational challenges some of the lending institutions are feeling right now…”

Adoption of e-signing and other technology

Andrew Moor, President and CEO, Equitable Bank: “We’ve had an electronic signature platform in place for about a year now, and frankly it’s been a frustration to me that there hasn’t been the same uptake from brokers that I would expect, and this has changed that.”
Rene Quercia VP, Mobile Mortgage Specialists & Broker Sales at TD Canada Trust: “We’ve had e-signature for a while, but frankly our challenge has always been in the authentication process and ensuring we’re dealing with the actual customer that we think we’re dealing with…we’ve come a long way in a matter of the last few weeks of initiating this so we can now go completely digital on the application process.”
Chris Brossard, CEO of CMLS Financial: “We’re seeing some very creative uses of technology (when it comes to appraisals). With digital signatures, we are certainly willing and able for certain documents, such as renewal letters, commitments, and others. But I think everyone’s aware that the Electronic Commerce Act prohibits certain things like powers of attorney, documents of title, wills, and certain other things, they require a wet signature. So, I think for the here and now, we can all get by. But I think we also have to ask ourselves as an industry, where do we go from here.”
Stuart Levings, President and CEO, Genworth Canada: “We still get about close to 90% of our collateral decisioning done by an electronic medium, so for that 10-ish percent that we do still appraise, we’re absolutely looking to try and do drive-bys or accept a modified appraisal if we require that. So, 100% in line where I think the industry has gone with this.”

Changes to underwriting criteria, appraisals:

Andy Charles, President and CEO, Canada Guaranty: “Technology has changed where we can all be working from home, so I think we can all be comfortable that the modified appraisal approach gives us values that are certainly good enough and probably our approach to appraisals will change after this incident.” Charles added that only about 10% of Canada Guaranty’s business requires appraisals. “I’m pleased that 90% of our adjudication process for property valuations is leveraging data, but for that 10% where we do require an appraisal, we’re being very open and flexible on.”
Boris Bozic, President and CEO, Merix Financial: “We have modified appraisals now that we’re accepting, and virtual inspections. This is all based on the guidance that was provided to us by all the insurers…so yes, we have fully embraced the ‘peekaboo’ approach that’s going on today, and I say that a little bit facetiously, but these circumstances require some creative ways of getting this done. Quite frankly, at the end of the day we still have to verify the valuation of the property.”

Looking Forward

Boris Bozic, President and CEO, Merix Financial: “For the next 90 days, I think it’s going to be uncomfortable for all of us…whatever challenges we face, Merix Financial and Paradigm Quest will execute with care and understanding.”
Andy Charles, President and CEO, Canada Guaranty: “I am very confident that once we flatten that proverbial curve, all the underlying economic financial programs to ensure the smooth running of our industry will start to kick in. I’m optimistic on that front and we’re doing everything possible to support that as well.”
Stuart Levings, President and CEO, Genworth Canada: “There is definitely a bit of a calm before perhaps the future storm, which is when some of these measures run out, some of the payment deferrals come to an end. We are definitely looking at how we increase our resources around the home ownership assistance program in our company and the teams that will be there to really help borrowers who are in need as we transition out of some of these bridging efforts that the government has implemented.”

This article was written by Steve Huber and originally published on the Canadian Mortgage trends Blog on April 14th.

Record Job Losses, Yet Loonie and Stock Market Rally

Thu, 09 Apr 2020 21:45:15 GMT

Canada Loses over one million jobs in March

Employment in Canada collapsed in March, with over one million jobs lost, wiping away over three years of job creation in a single month and highlighting the economic pain the coronavirus pandemic has swiftly delivered. The decline in jobs in Canada, on a proportional basis, was steeper than in the U.S. The record plunge was anticipated after officials here revealed that in the span of roughly a month, 5 million people, about 20% of the country's labour force, have applied for emergency income support. This reflects Canada's relatively rapid widespread implementation of social distancing.

The sharp increase in unemployment initially caught policymakers by surprise, prompting them to shift their response toward wage subsidies in order to prevent across-the-board layoffs. About 70% of direct stimulus spending is now targeted at keeping workers on payrolls.

The net number of new jobs plunged by 1.01 million from February, the largest decline in records dating back to 1976 , Statistics Canada said Thursday in Ottawa. The jobless rate surged from 5.6% in February to 7.8% in March.

Actual hours worked declined by 14% from a year ago, and 15% from the previous month, both records.

The March Labour Force Survey ( LFS ) results reflect labour market conditions during the week of March 15 to 21. By then, a sequence of unprecedented government interventions related to COVID-19—including the closure of non-essential businesses, travel restrictions, and public health measures directing Canadians to limit public interactions—had been put in place. These interventions resulted in a dramatic slowdown in economic activity and a sudden shock to the Canadian labour market. today's data might just be a preview of even worse numbers ahead as the economy heads for its deepest downdraft since the Great Depression.

As bad as these numbers are, Statistics Canada said they do not fully measure the size and extent of the impact of COVOD-19 on Canadian workers and businesses. Additional measures are required to do that which include the number of Canadians who kept their job but worked reduced hours, and the number of people who did not look for work because of ongoing business closures. Of those who were employed in March, the number who did not work any hours during the reference week (March 15 to 21) increased by 1.3 million, while the number who worked less than half of their usual hours increased by 800,000. These increases in absences from work can be attributed to COVID-19 and bring the total number of Canadians who were affected by either job loss or reduced hours to 3.1 million.

Regionally, employment fell in all provinces, with Ontario (-403,000 or -5.3%), Quebec (-264,000 or -6.0%), British Columbia (-132,000 or -5.2%) and Alberta (-117,000 or -5.0%) the hardest hit.

The unemployment rate increased in all provinces except Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island. The largest increases were in Quebec (+3.6 percentage points to 8.1%), British Columbia (+2.2 percentage points to 7.2%) and Ontario (+2.1 percentage points to 7.6%). See the table below for the jobless rate in each province.

In March, the number of people who were out of the labour force—that is, those who were neither employed nor unemployed—increased by 644,000. Of those not in the labour force, 219,000 had worked recently and wanted a job but did not search for one, an increase of 193,000 (+743%). Because they had not looked for work and they were not temporarily laid off, these people are not counted as unemployed. Since historically the number of people in this group is generally very small and stable, the full monthly increase can be reasonably attributed to COVID-19.

Employment decreased more sharply in March among employees in the private sector (-830,200 or -6.7%) than in the public sector (-144,600 or -3.7%).

The number of self-employed workers decreased relatively little in March (-1.2% or -35,900) and was virtually unchanged compared with 12 months earlier. The number of own-account self-employed workers with no employees increased by 1.2% in March (not adjusted for seasonality). Most of this increase was due to an increase in the healthcare and social assistance industry (+16.7%), which offset declines in several other industries. At the onset of a sudden labour market shock, self-employed workers are likely to continue to report an attachment to their business, even as business conditions deteriorate.

The service sector was hardest hit, with almost all of the 1 million decline in employment concentrated in that category. The largest employment declines were recorded in industries that involve public-facing activities or limited ability to work from home. This includes accommodation and food services (-23.9%); information, culture and recreation (-13.3%); educational services (-9.1%); and wholesale and retail trade (-7.2%).

Smaller employment declines were observed in most other sectors, including those related to essential services, such as health care and social assistance (-4.0%). Employment was little changed in public administration; construction; and professional, scientific and technical services. Surprisingly, employment in natural resources rose despite the collapse of oil prices in March.

Females were also more likely to lose jobs than their male counterparts. Among core-aged workers, female employment dropped more than twice that of men, which might reflect the dominance of males in the construction industry, which was in large measure considered essential work in March. The private sector was responsible for a majority of the losses with employment dropping by 830,200.

Bottom Line: The chart below shows the unprecedented magnitude of the drop in employment last month compared to other recession periods. But this is not your typical recession. This was a government-induced work stoppage to protect us from COVID-19--to flatten the curve of new cases so that our healthcare system could better accommodate the onslaught of critically ill patients. While these are still early days, the data suggests that Canada's early and dramatic nationwide response to the pandemic has been the right thing to do . We only need to look as near as the United States, where shutdowns were piecemeal, tentative and late. The number of COVID-19 cases is more than 22 times larger in the US than in Canada, while the population is only ten times the size.

To be sure, economic growth in the second quarter will be dismal . The economists at the Royal Bank have just posted a forecasted growth rate of an unprecedented -32% in Q2 and a jobless rate rising to 14.6%. They see a bounceback of +20% growth in the third quarter, although it will take until 2022 until Canadian GDP returns to its pre-pandemic level. Underpinning this forecast is the assumption that the economy will be in lockdown for about 12 weeks, with activity only gradually returning to normal after that.

According to the Royal Bank report, "Home resales are expected to fall 20% this year. Job losses, reduced work hours and income, as well as equity-market declines, will keep many buyers out of the market. Governments and banks have policies in place to help owners through this tough patch which should limit forced-selling and a glut of properties coming onto the market. But that doesn’t mean prices won’t come under downward pressure. As in many other industries, we expect the recovery in housing will be gradual. Low interest rates will be a stabilizing force, though it will take a rebound in the labour market as well as a pickup in immigration before sales really accelerate. Our view is that most of the recovery will occur in 2021."

Policymakers have been extremely aggressive in providing income and wage supports. The central bank is unlikely to reduce interest rates below the current overnight rate of 0.25%, but the BoC will continue large-scale purchases of government bonds, mortgage-backed securities (along with CMHC), bankers' acceptances and commercial paper--reducing the cost of funds for the banks and improving liquidity in all markets. " All told, the government support measures add up to 11.5% of GDP making the entire package one of the largest of the developed countries. "

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC's Chief Economist. We shared it on our blog because it has lots of great information. Concerned with your financial situation? Give any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts a call anytime.

Are Interest Rates Going Up and Down at the Same Time? COVID-19

Wed, 08 Apr 2020 00:16:51 GMT

If you’re paying more attention to the Canadian economy due to COVID-19, and it seems like you’re getting mixed messages; that mortgage interest rates are going both up and down at the same time, you’re not that far off. There are a lot of moving parts, and to find clarity, we need to make sure we’re comparing apples to apples, and oranges to oranges.

Let’s begin by acknowledging that not all interest rates are the same. The term “interest rates” can mean a lot of different things in news story headlines.

The Government “overnight rate” is different from the “qualifying rate”, which is different from the banks “prime rate”, which is different from “variable rates”, which is different from the “discount on a variable rate” which is different from “fixed rates”.

Here’s a list of the different types of mortgage rates, a quick summary of what they are, the direction they’re going, and how they impact you.

Target for the Overnight Rate.

Also known as the policy rate, this is the rate that the Bank of Canada (The Government) controls. When the Bank of Canada changes the Target for the Overnight Rate, this change affects other interest rates in the economy.

Typically there are only eight days in the year for the Bank of Canada to announce if they will change the rate. However, given the recent COVID-19, the Bank of Canada has made special announcements.

The overnight rate was set with a target of 1.75% for a long time before the pandemic.

March 4th 2020, the rate was lowered to 1.25%. March 16th 2020, the rate was lowered to 0.75% in an emergency rate cut. March 27th 2020, the rate was lowered to 0.25% in a second emergency rate cut.

The overnight rate now sits at 0.25% with April 15th 2020, as the next scheduled announcement date.

By cutting interest rates, the government hopes to stimulate economic growth. Lower financing costs encourages borrowing and investing, which is what our government believes will get us through this pandemic.

Qualifying Rate

Also known as the Benchmark Qualifying Rate or the five year qualifying posted rate, this is another rate set by the government. If you’re getting an insured mortgage, the government wants to make sure you will be able to afford your mortgage at the end of your term (in case interest rates go up). So they make you qualify for your mortgage at a higher rate than you will actually be paying.

The government has recently dropped the qualifying rate from 5.19% to 5.04%. This decrease, like the drop in the overnight rate, is meant to help stimulate the economy. The average Canadian will qualify to borrow an additional $10,000 with this drop.

Banks Prime Rate

The banks prime lending rate isn’t the same as the overnight rate; however, the banks prime lending rate is impacted by the overnight rate. Each bank sets its own prime lending rate. When the Bank of Canada moves the overnight rate, typically the prime rate at each bank will follow.

Because of the emergency rate cut on March 27th, banks lowered their prime lending rate to 2.45%. Some banks moved immediately, while some made the change effective April 1st, which means the savings will be seen on May 1st, but they all did lower their prime rates.

The prime lending rate is used by banks to determine rates on floating mortgage products (like the variable rate), lines of credit, home equity lines of credit (HELOC), and some credit cards.

If you currently have a variable rate mortgage or a HELOC, a lower prime rate means that you are now paying less interest on your existing mortgage, this is a good thing.

Variable Rate Mortgage

A variable rate mortgage is a mortgage that fluctuates with the prime lending rate. Typically, the mortgage rate will change with the prime lending rate and includes a “component” or “discount” to the prime rate +/- a specified amount, such as Prime - 0.45%. The lender sets this component to prime.

So, if you have a variable rate mortgage at Prime -0.45%, the rate you’d be paying today (with a prime rate of 2.45%) is 2%.

This is where it gets a little confusing because while the government is trying to stimulate the economy by lowering the overnight rate, banks have followed by lowering their prime rate, but at the same time have increased the component to prime - by the same amount of 0.5% or in some cases even more.

Although there are immediate savings for existing variable rate mortgage holders, anyone looking to get a new variable rate mortgage will do so at a higher rate than a few weeks ago.

Fixed Rate Mortgage

As its name suggests, a fixed rate mortgage is where your mortgage rate stays the same throughout your term. Your rate isn’t tied to the prime lending rate but rather is unmoved by outside factors. With all the uncertainty in the Canadian economy, lenders have actually been increasing rates for new fixed rate mortgages.

So while the government is doing all they can to keep rates low, why are banks increasing fixed rate mortgages?

Well, banks are in the business of making money, and given that over 2 million Canadians have applied for some kind of assistance to get through COVID-19, the fear is that mortgage delinquency will go up considerably as the coronavirus financially impacts people.

Banks are increasing fixed rates to protect themselves against economic uncertainty.

So what does this mean for you? Well, as everyone’s financial situation is different, it’s impossible to give blanket advice that applies to everyone. But here is some general advice.

Existing Variable Rate Holders

You’re doing well. The recent drop in the banks prime rate to 2.45% has lowered the amount of interest you are paying on your mortgage. You have a discount to prime for the remainder of your term that isn’t currently available in the market. Your mortgage rate is one of the lowest in Canadian history.

As the next announcement by the government will be April 15th 2020, there is a chance your rate could go even lower.

If at this time, you’re considering locking your variable rate into a fixed rate, that would significantly increase the amount of interest you are paying. As fixed rates have increased over the last weeks, this isn’t a good option right now.

The reason you went variable in the first place is the reason you should stay variable at this point. With all the economic uncertainty, the prime rate won’t be going up anytime soon.

Existing Fixed Rate Mortgage Holders

Your fixed rate is set lower than the fixed rates currently being offered. If you break your term now, you will incur a higher penalty. So unless you must make a move, it would probably be best just to stay the course.

Hopefully, fixed rates will go down when the economic uncertainty winds down, and rates will be in a good spot when your term comes up for renewal.

Are you looking for a new mortgage?

The most important thing for you going forward is flexibility. Variable rates are still historically low, and although fixed rate mortgages have gone up over the last weeks, there are still lots of great mortgage options available on the market.

The best place to start is to contact us directly so we can go over your financial situation and discuss the best plan for you to move ahead in these uncertain times.

So although it may appear that mortgage interest rates are going both up and down at the same time, understanding what is meant by “interest rates” is crucial. The government is lowering rates to stimulate the economy, while banks are trying to protect themselves against future losses by increasing rates while they can.

How Lenders are Handling COVID-19

Mon, 06 Apr 2020 17:44:51 GMT

If you are experiencing financial instability from job loss or reduction of hours due to COVID-19, you might be eligible to defer your mortgage payments. The best course of action is to get in touch with your lender directly, and in the coming months, any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts would love to help you explore all your mortgage options.

Click here for a list of all major Canadian lenders , their contact info, and a link to their COVID-19 resource pages.

Prime Rate Falls After BoC Delivers Second Emergency Rate Cut

Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:05:52 GMT

It’s official, Canada’s prime rate will fall to 2.45% following the Bank of Canada’s emergency rate cut on Friday.

RBC once again led the way by confirming it would match the BoC’s 50-bps rate cut by dropping its prime rate to 2.45%. Scotiabank, TD, BMO and CIBC then followed in quick succession, announcing that the rate changes would come into effect on Monday.

The change will again affect all existing floating mortgage rates, as well as lines of credit and home equity lines of credit.

Those shopping for new variable-rate mortgages, however, may not find the kind of deals they would expect with such a low overnight rate.

Liquidity concerns and risk premiums have caused mortgage lenders to begin hiking their rates, as we reported recently .

After the Bank of Canada’s last 50-bps rate cut on March 16, many banks responded by lowering their prime rate by an equal amount. However, many were also reducing their discounts on prime, or in a growing number of cases started adding premiums, all but cancelling out the BoC’s rate cut.

Mortgage shoppers will have to wait and see what happens this week, but the rate hikes don’t appear to be done yet.

The Bank of Canada’s Actions to Date

Friday’s rate announcement marks the second emergency inter-meeting rate cut by the Bank of Canada. The country’s key lending rate has now fallen from 1.75% at the start of the month to its current rate of 0.25%. The last time the overnight rate fell so much in the span of a month was in 1992.

“The spread of COVID-19 is having serious consequences for Canadians and for the economy, as is the abrupt decline in world oil prices,” the BoC said in a statement .

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz

“The pandemic-driven contraction has prompted decisive fiscal policy action in Canada to support individuals and businesses and to minimize any permanent damage to the structure of the economy.”

Questions as to whether the Bank of Canada may resort to negative interest rates were answered on Friday when Poloz confirmed the Bank would not drop rates into negative territory, saying “this unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound.”

“…at 0.25%, the policy rate is now as low as it will go and will stay there for a long time,” wrote Derek Holt, VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank. “We forecast no further change in the BoC overnight rate throughout 2020–21 at a minimum.”

Instead, the Bank announced a new program involving a minimum $5-billion per week in market purchases of government bonds to address “strains in the Government of Canada debt market and to enhance the effectiveness of all other actions taken so far.”

“Crucially, this is just the minimum… Governor Stephen Poloz implied that the Bank is likely to purchase a lot more in the short term to reduce market stress,” noted Stephen Brown of Capital Economics. “…this looks likely to morph into a traditional (quantitative easing) program as the Bank left the door open for it to remain in place well after market conditions improve.”

This article was written by Steve Huebl and originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends on March 29th 2020.

Bank of Canada Cuts Rates 50 bps to 0.25% | Dr. Sherry Cooper Commentary

Fri, 27 Mar 2020 16:05:45 GMT

Bank of Canada Moves to Restore "Financial Market Functionality"

The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¼ percent. This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic (see chart below).

Strains in the commercial paper and government securities markets triggered today's action to engage in quantitative easing. The Governing Council has been meeting every day during the pandemic crisis. Market illiquidity is a significant problem and one the Bank considers foundational. These large-scale purchases of financial assets are intended to improve the functioning of financial markets.

Credit risk spreads have widened sharply in recent days. People are moving to cash. Liquidity has dried up in all financial markets, even government-guaranteed markets such as Canadian Mortgage-Backed securities (CMBs) and GoC bills and bonds. The commercial paper market--used by businesses for short-term financing--has become nonfunctional. The Bank is making large-scale purchases of financial assets in illiquid markets to improve market functioning across the yield curve. They are not attempting to change the shape of the curve for now but might do so in the future.

These large-scale purchases will create the liquidity that the financial system is demanding so that financial intermediation can function. Risk has risen, which creates the need for more significant cash injections.

At the press conference today, Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins refrained from speculating what other measures the Bank might take in the future. When asked, "Where is the bottom?" She responded, "That depends on the resolution of the Covid-19 health issues."

The Bank will discuss the economic outlook in its Monetary Policy Report at their regularly scheduled meeting on April 15. In response to questions, Governor Poloz said it is challenging to assess what the impact of the shutdown of the economy will be. A negative cycle of pessimism is clearly in place. The Bank's rate cuts help to reduce monthly payments on floating rate debt. He is hoping to maintain consumer confidence and expectations of a return to normalcy.

The oil price cut alone would have been sufficient reason for the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates. The Covid-19 medical emergency and the shutdown dramatically exacerbates the situation. All that monetary policy can do is to cushion the blow and avoid structural problems to the economy. The overnight rate of 0.25% is consistent with market rates along the yield curve.

High household debt levels have historically been a concern. Monetary policy easing helps to bridge the gap until the health concerns are resolved. The housing market, according to Wilkins, is no longer a concern for excessive borrowing by cash-strapped households.

At this point, the Bank is not contemplating negative interest rate s. Monetary policy has little further room to maneuver, given interest rates are already very low. With businesses closed, lower interest rates do not encourage consumers to go out and spend money.

Large-scale debt purchases by the Bank will continue for an extended period to provide liquidity. The Bank can do this in virtually unlimited quantities as needed. The policymakers are also focussing on the period after the crisis. They want the economy to have an excellent foundation for growth when the economy resumes its normal functioning.

Fiscal stimulus is crucial at this time. The newly introduced income support for people who are not covered by the Employment Insurance system is a particularly important safety net for the economy. There are many other elements of the fiscal stimulus, and the government stands ready to do more as needed.

The Canadian dollar has moved down on the Bank's latest emergency action. The loonie has also been battered by the dramatic decline in oil prices. Canada is getting a double whammy from the pandemic and the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The loonie's decline feeds through to rising prices of imports. However, the pandemic has disrupted trade and imports have fallen.

The Bank of Canada suggested as well that they are meeting twice a week with the leadership of the Big-Six Banks. The cost of funds for the banks has risen sharply. CMHC is buying large volumes of mortgages from the banks, which, along with CMB purchases by the central bank, will shore up liquidity. The banks are well-capitalized and robust. The level of collaboration between the Bank of Canada and the Big Six is very high.

The Stock Market Has Had Three Good Days

As the chart below shows, the Toronto Stock Exchange has retraced some of its losses in the past three days as the US and Canada have announced very aggressive fiscal stimulus. As well, the Bank of Canada has now lowered interest rates three times this month, with a cumulative easing of 1.5 percentage points. The Federal Reserve has also cut by 150 basis points over the same period. In addition to lowering borrowing costs, the central bank has also announced in recent days a slew of new liquidity measures to inject cash into the banking system and money markets and to ensure it can handle any market-wide stresses in the financial system.

The economic pain is just getting started in Canada with the spike in joblessness and the shutdown of all but essential services. Similarly, the US posted its highest level of initial unemployment insurance claims in history--3.83 million, which compares to a previous high of 685,000 during the financial crisis just over a decade ago. These are the earliest indicator of a virus-slammed economy, with much more to come. All of this is without precedent, but rest assured that policy leaders will continue to do whatever it takes to cushion the blow of the pandemic on consumers and businesses and to bridge a return to normalcy.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper DLCs Chief Economist, she's keeping us informed during these turbulent economic times!

Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target to ¼ percent

Fri, 27 Mar 2020 15:27:17 GMT

The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The spread of COVID-19 is having serious consequences for Canadians and for the economy, as is the abrupt decline in world oil prices. The pandemic-driven contraction has prompted decisive fiscal policy action in Canada to support individuals and businesses and to minimize any permanent damage to the structure of the economy.

The Bank is playing an important complementary role in this effort. Its interest rate setting cushions the impact of the shocks by easing the cost of borrowing. Its efforts to maintain the functioning of the financial system are helping keep credit available to people and companies. The intent of our decision today is to support the financial system in its central role of providing credit in the economy, and to lay the foundation for the economy’s return to normalcy.

The Bank’s efforts have been primarily focused on ensuring the availability of credit by providing liquidity to help markets continue to function. To promote credit availability, the Bank has expanded its various term repo facilities. To preserve market function, the Bank is conducting Government of Canada bond buybacks and switches, purchases of Canada Mortgage Bonds and banker’s acceptances, and purchases of provincial money market instruments. All these additional measures have been detailed on the Bank’s website and will be extended or augmented as needed.

Today, the Bank is launching two new programs.

First, the Commercial Paper Purchase Program (CPPP) will help to alleviate strains in short-term funding markets and thereby preserve a key source of funding for businesses. Details of the program will be available on the Bank’s web site.

Second, to address strains in the Government of Canada debt market and to enhance the effectiveness of all other actions taken so far, the Bank will begin acquiring Government of Canada securities in the secondary market. Purchases will begin with a minimum of $5 billion per week, across the yield curve. The program will be adjusted as conditions warrant, but will continue until the economic recovery is well underway. The Bank’s balance sheet will expand as a result of these purchases.

The Bank is closely monitoring economic and financial conditions, in coordination with other G7 central banks and fiscal authorities, and will update its outlook in mid-April. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to take further action as required to support the Canadian economy and financial system and to keep inflation on target.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 15, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

Is Now a Good Time To Buy? (Covid-19)

Wed, 25 Mar 2020 03:09:11 GMT

If you’ve been thinking about buying a new home, chances are the instability of the Canadian economy and the impact Covid-19 has you second-guessing yourself. And chances are, at this point in time, you are probably right to do so.

Right now there is uncertainty in the Canadian housing market. We’re in uncharted waters and the full impact of Covid-19 has yet to be seen. Obviously, as people continue to self-isolate, we can expect sales numbers to drop.

But as real estate agents find new ways to make house-hunting accessible online through virtual tours, coupled with incredibly low interest rates, it’s certainly not as cut and dry as might be expected.

So, is right now a good time to buy a home? Well, that’s tough to answer, but what if you looked at it another way?

Instead of basing your buying decision on external market factors, consider asking yourself, is now a good time to buy a home for me?

When you stop looking at the market to determine your timing to buy a home, and instead examine your personal financial situation and your reasons for buying a home, the picture becomes clearer.

Consider asking yourself the following:

Does buying a new home now put me in a better or worse financial position?
Is there a chance I could lose my job or get laid off because of Covid-19?
Have I saved enough money for a downpayment?
Do I have a plan in place if I get sick and I’m not able to work for any length of time?
Is there any scenario where I might have to sell quickly and potentially lose money?
Do I really want to buy, or am I feeling the pressure that if I don’t buy now, I might never be able to?
Am I scared that if I buy now, the market will crash the second I do?

Regardless if you decide now is a good time to buy, or to wait, consider putting a plan in place! A plan makes all the difference.

If you decide to wait, consider ways to save a little extra money for the downpayment or to squirrel away in your emergency fund. Interest rates won’t be going through the roof anytime soon (slight fluctuations are normal), so don’t feel you need to be in a hurry.

If you decide now is a good time to buy start with a mortgage pre-approval. Contact us anytime; we can go over your financial situation, complete an online mortgage application and put together a plan.

Although Covid-19 has significantly impacted the way we live our lives, life will go on. People will continue to buy and sell houses, albeit maybe not as many for a while. But we all need places to live and we can’t let fear make our decisions for us.

Having a plan in place is what allows you to have certainty in these uncertain times!

Deferring Mortgage Payments. (Covid-19)

Tue, 24 Mar 2020 00:58:03 GMT

In response to the Covid-19 crisis; for those individuals financially affected, banks and the government have announced that payment relief may be available for up to 6 months of deferred mortgage payments.

As information is changing daily, or hourly, if you have any questions, please contact us directly to discuss your financial situation. The following information is a general guideline, each lender deals with things a little differently. So, here’s what you need to know.

Do you qualify for deferred payments?

Just because lenders are offering deferred mortgage payments, doesn’t mean you will qualify. Lenders are looking at each case individually and will only offer deferral upon their sole discretion. If you haven’t experienced income disruption, you won’t be eligible for payment deferral.

To qualify, you will have to prove not only that you have been directly financially impacted by Covid-19, but that you have no other means of making your mortgage payments. In other words, you have to prove genuine financial hardship.

Before making an application to your lender for deferred payments, you should consider applying for EI and continue making your payments as scheduled. Good advice is only to contact your lender if you have an immediate need and you would otherwise default on your payments.

Deferred doesn’t mean free

To be clear, deferred does not mean free. If you defer your payments for up to 6 months, you will still be responsible for paying that money to the lender. In fact, at most lenders, deferred payments could be added on to the principal mortgage amount and could incur additional interest.

Once your payments are resumed, they might increase your regular payment to maintain your existing amortization schedule.

Applying to defer your mortgage payments

If you are in a place where your only option is to defer payments, so you don’t get behind or default on your mortgage, you should contact your lender directly. Should you call and not get through, consider sending an email. Here is a template for you to follow. Edit as required.

Subject: “your name” & “mortgage #”

My name is “your name”. I would like to inquire about mortgage payment relief. My income has been disrupted by the Covid-19 virus, and I have limited means to make upcoming mortgage payments.

My address is “insert address”, and my contact information is “provide the best way to contact you”.

Please advise of the next steps.

“your name.”

Will deferring mortgage payments impact your credit score?

The simple answer is, no. A lender approved deferral is not like missing a mortgage payment. However, if you don’t communicate with your lender and just skip a payment, it could negatively impact your credit score.

Now, the truth is, payment deferral shouldn't impact your credit score, BUT, in these unprecedented times, and with the overwhelming number of deferral applications and banks having never handled anything like this before, it wouldn’t be a big stretch to imagine that mistakes could be made. Misinformation could get misreported to the credit bureaus.

Other mortgage options

Payment deferral isn’t the only option you have at this time. You may qualify for any of the following:

A mortgage refinance

Restoration of your original amortization (to lower your payment)

Hold a payment (during a temporary suspension of income)

Negotiated reduction of payments

If you are in a place where the Covid-19 has financially impacted you, and you need someone to discuss all your options - including deferring payments, please contact us anytime.

Let's discuss your financial situation and work together on a plan to get you through this!

Big Banks Announce Mortgage Deferral Relief for Homeowners

Thu, 19 Mar 2020 15:32:34 GMT

Canada’s big banks announced this week that those struggling due to the COVID-19 crisis will be able to defer their mortgage payments for up to six months.

The coordinated announcement came from the Bank of Montreal, CIBC, National Bank of Canada, RBC Royal Bank, Scotiabank and TD Bank, and will be granted on a case-by-case basis to assist those disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

“These measures are an important first step and underscore the resilience of Canada’s financial system and the strength of our major banks,” the joint news release reads. “Banks will monitor evolving economic conditions and consider other measures if necessary.”

The announcement has clearly come as a relief to many who have been laid off temporarily and worried about how they will cover their mortgage payments in the coming months.

One mortgage broker-owner wrote on Twitter that his office had received 26 calls before noon on Tuesday from clients inquiring about the 6-month deferral option.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), which provides default insurance for insured loans, also announced that it will allow up to 6-month deferrals for mortgage payments.

In a Twitter post, CMHC President and CEO Evan Siddall thanked the banks for stepping up to assist mortgage-holders. But he also reminded borrowers that these deferrals are not a blanket measure available to all mortgagors.

“Mortgage deferrals are being offered to those who NEED them. This is a compassionate program by banks, mortgage lenders, @CMHC_ca , @GenworthCanada and @CanadaGuaranty ,” he wrote in a separate post. “It is a deferral, not a general amnesty. No shortcuts, only relief: we all need to pay our bills if we can.

In addition to the mortgage payment deferral measure, CMHC published a reminder that it and other mortgage insurers offer additional tools to lenders that can assist homeowners struggling though financial difficulty. “Our default management tools include: payment deferral, loan re-amortization, capitalization of outstanding interest arrears and other eligible expenses and special payment arrangements,” it noted in a statement .

How Are Other Mortgage Lenders Responding?

MCAP

MCAP, one of the country’s largest independent mortgage financing companies, has reached out to its clients reminding them of existing mortgage features they can take advantage of. Those include MCAP’s Skip a Payment Program, where homeowners may skip a payment at any time, as well as its Hold a Payment Program, which allows payments to be deferred for a specified period of time.

“Given recent global events, MCAP understands that these may be difficult times for its homeowners,” the company posted in an online notice to clients.

While its call centre is experiencing heavy volumes, clients can contact MCAP here .

Equitable Bank

“At Equitable Bank, we are standing alongside Canada’s six largest banks to help provide financial relief to Canadians impacted financially by COVID-19,” noted CEO Andrew Moor in a statement . “We are committed to working with personal and small business banking customers on a case-by-case basis to provide flexible solutions that help them manage through challenges such as pay disruption, childcare disruption due to school closures, or challenges resulting from the COVID-19 virus itself. This support will include up to a six-month payment deferral for mortgages.”

Moor told CMT that nearly the entire EQ Bank team is now working from home for the safety of them and the community, and that clients can best reach out with questions via email at customerservice@eqbank.ca .

“Obviously there are a lot of calls and it is tough to live up to the service standards we aspire to, but our customers should be assured that we will get back to them and will act in a sensible and compassionate manner,” he said. “Equitable Bank is here to help our customers.”

Home Trust

Home Trust, one of Canada’s leading alternative lenders, published its own statement on Tuesday.

“At Home Trust, we recognize that the COVID-19 virus is creating unprecedented challenging circumstances for everybody,” it reads. “We are committed to work with our customers on an individual basis to support you as you manage through these extraordinary times. If you have been directly impacted by COVID-19 and need to better understand your options with Home, please reach out to us…”

Those wanting more information can contact homehelps@hometrust.ca or call 1-855-270-3630, but are warned of high call volumes.

If you are in a place where you might need to defer your mortgage payments, please don't hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts for advise in these tough times, we're here to help!

This article was written by Steve Huebl and was originally published on Canadian Mortgage Trends on March 19th 2020

The Canadian Housing Market | March 2020

Mon, 16 Mar 2020 18:28:01 GMT

An assessment of the Canadian housing market by Dr. Sherry Cooper.

The Canadian Real Estate Association announced this morning that home sales recorded over the Canadian MLS Systems rose 5.9% in February, marking one of the more substantial month-over-month gains of the past decade. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity stood 26.9% above year-ago levels--keeping in mind that activity was quite weak one year ago. February 2019 marked a decade-low for the month, so a good part of the significant y-o-y gain reflects low levels of activity recorded at the time. February 2020 also benefited from an additional day due to the leap year.

The CREA President, Jason Stephen, said, "Home prices are accelerating in markets where listings are in increasingly short supply, specifically in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes which together account for about two-thirds of national sales activity. Meanwhile, ample supply across the Prairies and in Newfoundland and Labrador means increased competition among sellers."

The number of newly listed homes jumped 7.3% in February compared to January, more than erasing the declines of late last year. New supply gains were posted in some large markets, including the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Kitchener-Waterloo, Windsor-Essex, Ottawa and Montreal.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.7% in February 2020 compared to January, marking its ninth consecutive monthly gain. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in February 2020 was around $540,000, up 15.2% from the same month the previous year. See the table below for the regional move in prices.

But this is old news, particularly given all that has happened in the past two weeks. What comes next for the housing market? That depends on the course of the pandemic. Lower interest rates would typically be great news for the housing market, particularly for first-time homebuyers. But social distancing is hardly consistent with open houses and home shopping.

Moreover, volatility and instability reduce consumer confidence. Buyers that parked their downpayment savings in the stock markets have lost nearly a third of their money on paper. And how many sellers want a trail of strangers wandering through their homes during the pandemic. So the housing market, like everything else, is likely going to slow over the near term.

The Bank of Canada is hopeful that its rate cuts will stabilize the housing market from what might have otherwise been a substantial shutdown. Lower rates will filter through to lower monthly payments for floating-rate mortgage borrowers. Expect the Bank to cut rates again to near-zero levels, following in the footsteps of the Fed. So far, as of this writing, the Canadian banks have not responded to Friday's BoC rate cut. The prime rate went down a full 50 bps on March 5 after the Bank cut its key rate by that amount on March 4. But so far, the Big-Six banks have not responded to the 75 bps cut three days ago.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC's Chief Economist

US Fed Cuts Overnight Rate But Markets Plummet

Mon, 16 Mar 2020 18:18:34 GMT

Fed takes emergency action on Sunday as virus pushes economy toward recession.

In an unprecedented Sunday afternoon meeting, the US Federal Reserve cut their key policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) to a level of 0%-to-0.25% (see chart below). Also, the Committee announced increased access to the discount window where the Fed makes loans to banks. The Fed is the lender-of-last-resort and is signalling that it will provide liquidity wherever needed. As well, with interest rates already so low, the Fed is well aware that rate cuts can only do so much. Thus, they are returning to quantitative easing--the buying of large volumes of U.S. government Treasury bills and bonds as well as mortgage-backed securities (MBS), to inject liquidity into the financial system.

The Treasury and US MBS markets are usually the deepest, most liquid markets in the world. But over the past two weeks, liquidity has dried up. Financial instability has risen sharply with the high level of volatility. Banks have experienced significant withdrawals as consumers are hoarding cash like everything else. The cost of funds to banks has risen sharply because of the enhanced perception of risk. With the collapse in oil prices, banks exposed to the oil sector are building up reserves for nonperforming loans. As businesses everywhere in nearly every sector shutdown, the risk of delinquencies rises further. Consumers who are housebound spend less money, and those who are freelancers or hourly wage earners might not get paid. Moreover, the shuttering of schools puts an added burden on parents who have no other daycare options for their kids.

All of this disruption, which according to the Center for Disease Control, could last months--the CDC recommended yesterday the shutdown of meetings of more than 50 people for eight weeks--has led to rising concern about the riskiness of banks. Bank shares have plummeted, and the yields on bank bonds have surged. Besides, banks and other mortgage lenders are fearful of being inundated with requests for refinancings, especially in the US, where penalties for breaking a mortgage are much lower than in Canada. Because of the refinancing surge in the US, the price of MBSs has fallen sharply, raising their yields and making the market highly illiquid.

The rising risk premiums, likely recession and illiquidity are causing banks in Canada and the US to raise some mortgage rates. Lenders are tightening the discount off the prime rate on variable-rate mortgage loans. Some fixed rates have edged higher as well. Such spread widening between mortgage rates and government yields happened during the financial crisis. Bank balance sheets will expand as troubled businesses and consumers extend their borrowings on their open lines of credit. Many will be unable to make timely interest payments. Loan loss reserves, already climbing, will rise further. Liquid deposits will be depleted as many are forced to live off of savings while shying away from selling stocks at markedly depressed prices.

These are not normal times. The Fed's actions did nothing to calm markets. Indeed, stocks and bond yields plummeted in overnight trade, and the stock markets opened sharply lower in North America. The S&P 500 opened down over 8% while the TSX opened down 11%, triggering a circuit-breaker time out. This is the third time in a week the circuit breaker has hit. The TSX is down roughly 35% from its recent high (see chart below). The S&P 500 is down over 20%. The relative underperfomance of the Canadian stock market reflects our out-sized representation of the energy sector. The two weakest sectors in the TSX are the energy and financial sectors.

The world knows that the Fed and other central banks are running out of ammunition. Governor Powell said yesterday that he would not take the key fed funds rate into negative territory but instead would use "forward guidance" and asset purchases (quantitative easing) going forward.

The good news is that the banks are highly capitalized and much more resilient than during the financial crisis. Central banks since that time have put in place measures to monitor financial stability. Last Friday, the Canadian Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) reduced the capital requirements for Canadian banks to free up $300 billion for banks to support troubled borrowers. OSFI warned against the use of these funds to by back stocks or raise dividends.

OSFI also suspended the proposed revision in the qualifying mortgage rate slated to begin April 6. The posted mortgage rate, published weekly by the Bank of Canada, will remain the qualifying mortgage rate. It is currently 5.19%, but it is expected to fall this week to around 4.95%.

But in these extraordinary times, there is a loss of confidence in the financial system. Some are calling for a full shutdown of the stock markets--but imagine the panic if no one could sell assets. There would truly be a run on the banks. Now is not a time to panic.

Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target to ¾ percent (Official Announcement)

Fri, 13 Mar 2020 22:24:38 GMT

The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¾ percent, effective Monday, March 16, 2020. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 percent and the deposit rate is ½ percent. This unscheduled rate decision is a proactive measure taken in light of the negative shocks to Canada’s economy arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent sharp drop in oil prices.

It is clear that the spread of the coronavirus is having serious consequences for Canadian families, and for Canada’s economy. In addition, lower prices for oil, even since our last scheduled rate decision on March 4, will weigh heavily on the economy, particularly in energy intensive regions.

The Bank will provide a full update of its outlook for the Canadian and global economies on April 15. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target.

The Bank has also taken steps to ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity. These additional measures have been announced in separate notices on the Bank’s website. The Bank is closely monitoring economic and financial conditions, in coordination with other G7 central banks and fiscal authorities.

Information note

If you have any questions about what this means for you and your mortgage, please don't hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime, we're here to help!

Content Type(s) : Press , Press Releases

Easing of the Economic Impact of Pandemic In Canada

Fri, 13 Mar 2020 22:19:29 GMT

Today we saw an exceptional co-ordinated government package to help cushion the blow of the pandemic and oil price rout on the Canadian economy.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada would introduce a “significant” fiscal stimulus package, as part of a coordinated effort with other Group of Seven countries to counter the virus-driven global economic slowdown and calm markets. In an exceptional press conference held at 2 pm today, Finance Minister Morneau sat at the side of the Governor of the Bank of Canada, and the head of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) to announce measures to soothe financial markets, boost confidence and support the Canadian economy.

Only nine days after the Bank of Canada cut the overnight policy rate by 50 basis points to 1.25%, Governor Poloz announced another 50 bps reduction in the policy rate to a level of 0.75%. Here is the Bank of Canada’s official statemen t :

"The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¾%. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1%, and the deposit rate is ½ percent. This unscheduled rate decision is a proactive measure taken in light of the negative shocks to Canada’s economy arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent sharp drop in oil prices.
It is clear that the spread of the coronavirus is having serious consequences for Canadian families, and for Canada’s economy. In addition, lower prices for oil, even since our last scheduled rate decision on March 4, will weigh heavily on the economy, particularly in energy-intensive regions.
The Bank will provide a full update of its outlook for the Canadian and global economies on April 15. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target."
The Bank has also taken steps to ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity. These additional measures were announced in separate notices on the Bank’s website . The Bank is closely monitoring economic and financial conditions, in coordination with other G7 central banks and fiscal authorities."

At the press conference, a reporter asked Poloz whether he would take the policy rate down to negative levels. He responded that he "does not like negative interest rates." And that "there is sufficient fiscal firepower in Canada" so that, hopefully, "negative interest rates are not likely to be needed."

He also commented, "Combined with the other measures announced today, lower interest rates will help to support confidence in businesses and households. For example, borrowing costs will be lowered both for new purchases of homes and through variable-rate mortgages and mortgage renewals."

Today, the Bank also announced a new Bankers' Acceptance Purchase Facility. This facility will support a key funding market for small- and medium-sized businesses at a time when they may have increased funding needs, and credit conditions are tightening. The facility will buy 1-month BAs starting the week of March 23. More details are forthcoming. This comes in addition to introducing a 6-month and 12-month bi-weekly repo operation yesterday.

Finance Minister Morneau announced he would deliver a fiscal stimulus package next week that will include an additional $10 billion in new funding to the country’s two business financing agencies -- the Business Development Bank of Canada and Export Development Canada. This announcement follows $1 billion of funding for the country's public health response outlined earlier this week , which came with some modest measures to support disrupted workers.

So significant fiscal stimulus measures are coming next week . There were no details on the size of these measures, but something on the order of 1% of GDP seems like a reasonable estimate. Mr. Morneau also noted that the government is looking at providing direct aid to individuals and families. The floodgates are about to be flung open.

The final bit of stimulus came from OSFI's lowering capital requirements for the Big Six Canadian banks. Jeremy Rudin, head of Canada’s banking regulator, announced he would reduce the nation’s "domestic stability buffer" by 1.25 percentage points of risk-weighted assets, effective immediately. The buffer will drop to 1%, from its prior level of 2.25%. He said that the government is looking at providing direct aid to individuals and families. This action will free up about $300 bln in funds for the big banks to lend. It will also offer some solace to the stock market, where bank stock prices have plunged in the past two weeks. Concern about the Canadian banks' balance sheets is always rife when markets are stressed.

In another move, the government announced that it is suspending consultation on the proposed change to the uninsured mortgage stress test. The insured stress test revision will start on April 6 as planned. OSFI wants to wait until markets return to more normal activity before making a final decision on the insured qualifying rate. Hopefully, banks will cut their posted mortgage rates in response to the combined 100 bp decline in the overnight rate and the plunge in 5-year bond government yields (see chart below). As of yesterday, March 12, the BoC Daily Digest held the conventional mortgage rate (5-year, aka the posted rate) steady at 5.19%.

We will now watch what the Canadian banks do in response to these actions . Will they cut their prime rates another full 50 basis points? And will they pass that on to borrowers of variable-rate mortgage money? Monday will be an interesting day.

Bottom Line: This is an excellent start to getting ahead of what will likely be a very challenging period for the Canadian economy. However, we need to see more of the details. Look for additional fiscal stimulus to be announced in the coming days and weeks (from the federal government as well as the provinces), and expect the Bank of Canada to ease policy rates another 50 bps to a level of 0.25% for the overnight benchmark rate by April. And, if conditions deteriorate more than anticipated, there's room for the BoC, government and OSFI to do more.

This is in direct contrast to the inept and disjointed policy response south of the border. Hopefully, the financial markets will take note that Canada is far better equipped both financially as well as from a public health perspective than our recent stock market performance has suggested.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper.

Mortgage Options Into Retirement

Thu, 12 Mar 2020 15:40:44 GMT

Although it’s ideal to have your mortgage paid off by the time you retire, in today’s economy, that isn’t always possible. The cost of living is considerably higher than it has ever been, and as a result, a lot of Canadians are putting off retirement, hoping to make just a little more money to add to that nest egg.

So if you find yourself in the position where you’re considering your mortgage options into retirement, you’ve come to the right place. The advantage of working with an independent mortgage professional (as opposed to a single bank) is choice. When you deal with a broker, you won’t be limited to an individual institution’s products; instead, you will have access to considerably more options.

Here are some options available to older Canadians as they plan for mortgage financing through their retirement.

Standard Mortgage Financing

If you’ve got a steady income, decent credit, and equity in your home, there is no reason you shouldn’t qualify for standard mortgage financing which usually comes at the lowest interest rates and best terms. Even if you’ve already retired, some lenders use pension and retirement income to support your mortgage application.

Reverse Mortgage Financing

A reverse mortgage allows Canadian homeowners 55 years and older to borrow money from their home with no proof of income, no credit check, and no health questions. A reverse mortgage is a fabulous mortgage solution that has helped thousands of older Canadians to enhance their lifestyle.

Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC)

A line of credit secured to the equity you have in your home is an excellent tool to allow you to access money when you need it, but not pay interest if you don’t. A lot of Canadians like the idea of rolling all their expenses and income into one account.

Private Financing

If you happen to be in a bit of a tight spot, you have a plan, but you need a financial solution, private financing might be the answer. Certainly not the first choice for many (typically higher interest rates) however private financing can provide you with options your typical bank can’t.

If you have any questions about securing mortgage financing into your retirement, contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime! We would love to provide you with options!

Canada’s Prime Rate Falls to 3.45% Following BoC Rate Cut

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 05 Mar 2020 15:25:57 GMT

Canada’s prime rate fell to 3.45% today for the first time since July 2018.

This is good news for floating-rate mortgage holders and those with Home Equity Lines of Credit or regular lines of credit. And it’s all thanks to Canada’s big banks passing along the full 50-bps rate cut delivered by the Bank of Canada yesterday.

Many were expecting the banks to keep some of those savings for themselves to shore up their own balance sheets, but RBC Royal Bank led the way yesterday evening by announcing the full 50-bps reduction to its prime rate. The rest of the country’s big banks quickly followed suit, save for National Bank of Canada (as of this posting).

Another exception is TD Bank’s mortgage prime rate, which remains 15 bps higher at 3.60%, as opposed to its regular prime rate of 3.45% that applies to Home Equity Lines of Credit.

All of this followed the Bank of Canada’s decision to drop its overnight target rate by 0.50% to 1.25% on Wednesday — where it hadn’t been since October 2018 — due to fears of a deepening economic downturn caused by the coronavirus, a.k.a., Covid-19.

“…The COVID-19 virus is a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks,” the Bank said in its statement , adding that additional policy easing isn’t out of the question.

“… the outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January,” it added. “As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target.”

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Additional Easing Expected in April

Many observers and the markets at large expect the Bank of Canada to deliver another 25-bps rate cut next month, and potentially another quarter-point cut before the end of the year, which would bring Canada’s overnight rate to 0.75%.

“The growing risk of COVID-19 to the outlook suggests that the Bank of Canada will follow today’s 50-bp cut in interest rates with an additional 25-bps cut in April,” noted Stephen Brown of Capital Economics. “Given the Governing Council’s lingering concerns that looser policy will boost an already red-hot housing market, however, we think the Bank is unlikely to go further than that.”

Brian DePratto, Senior Economist at TD Economics, added the Bank’s move was “an important message…that the relevant authorities are ready and willing to act to support economic activity in the face of negative shocks.”

“And, as much as lower rates will further fan the flames of housing markets, the key five-year interest rate is in large part beyond the Bank of Canada’s control, reflecting global factors such as the Federal Reserve’s shock 50-basis-point cut [Tuesday] (and market expectations of further cuts south of the border),” he added.

What it Means for Mortgage Rates?

Yesterday’s BoC rate cut and subsequent fall in the prime rate will affect those with floating rates. But those looking for fixed mortgage rates will also see rates continue to decline due to the dramatic fall in Canadian bond yields over the past several months.

Bond yields, which lead fixed mortgage rates, have fallen from 1.69% since January of this year to under 0.90% today. Average fixed rates have subsequently fallen from a high of 2.50% in December 2018 to 2.44% currently, and we’re continuing to see lenders lower rates each passing week.

But the big winners yesterday were floating-rate mortgage holders, who will see their mortgage rates fall half-a-percent. That will result in interest cost savings of about $500 a year per $100,000 of mortgage, according to RateSpy.com.

Those with adjustable-rate mortgages will see their payments drop by about $24 per $100,000 of mortgage, while those with variable-rate mortgages will continue to make the same monthly payment but see their portion going towards principal increase while the interest portion decreases.

More Fuel for Home Prices

Coincidentally, on the same day of the BoC’s interest rate announcement, the Toronto Real Estate Board announced that the average home price in the Greater Toronto Area rose nearly 17% year-over-year in February to $910,290 (or $989,218 in the City of Toronto).

Home sales, meanwhile, were up nearly 46%.

Many have speculated that interest rate easing from the Bank of Canada would be added fuel for the country’s hottest housing markets, further driving up prices.

Not only that, but the Department of Finance announced recently it will be introducing a new qualifying rate for the insured mortgage stress test (those with less than 20% down payment) starting April 6.

That will make it easier for more buyers to qualify for larger mortgages (or qualify, period). That, in turn, will add to demand, which is already being driven by a lack of supply as well as buyers’ fear of missing out (FOMO) in certain hot markets.

“People are not concerned about coronavirus, people are not concerned about recession,” John Pasalis, president of Toronto property brokerage Realosophy Realty, told Bloomberg News . “The only things they’re worried about is buying a home — and if they don’t buy now they might spend more in the future.”

If you have any questions about what this means for you and your mortgage, please don't hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

This article was written by Steve Huebl and originally published on Canadian Mortgage Trends on March 5th 2020, but we liked it, so we shared it with you on our blog as well!

Interest rates hit record lows. 5-year yield in Canada plunges to 0.82%.

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 04 Mar 2020 18:57:21 GMT

The Bank of Canada Brings Out The Big Guns

Following yesterday's surprise emergency 50 basis point (bp) rate cut by the Fed, the Bank of Canada followed suit today and signalled it is poised to do more if necessary. The BoC lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 bps to 1.25%, suggesting that "the COVID-19 virus is a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks." This is the first time the Bank has eased monetary policy in four years.

According to the BoC's press release, "COVID-19 represents a significant health threat to people in a growing number of countries. In consequence, business activity in some regions has fallen sharply, and supply chains have been disrupted. This has pulled down commodity prices, and the Canadian dollar has depreciated. Global markets are reacting to the spread of the virus by repricing risk across a broad set of assets, making financial conditions less accommodative. It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity." The press release went on to promise that "as the situation evolves, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target."

Moving the full 50 basis points is a powerful message from the Bank of Canada. Particularly given that Governor Poloz has long been bucking the tide of monetary easing by more than 30 central banks around the world, concerned about adding fuel to a red hot housing market, especially in Toronto. Other central banks will no doubt follow, although already-negative interest rates hamper the euro-area and Japan.

Canadian interest rates, which have been falling rapidly since mid-February, nosedived in response to the Bank's announcement. The 5-yield Government of Canada bond yield plunged to a mere 0.82% (see chart below), about half its level at the start of the year.

Fixed-rate mortgage rates have fallen as well, although not as much as government bond yields. The prime rate, which has been stuck at 3.95% since October 2018 when the Bank of Canada last changed (hiked) its overnight rate, is going to fall, but not by the full 50 bps as the cost of funds for banks has risen with the surge in credit spreads. A cut in the prime rate will lower variable-rate mortgage rates.

Many expect the Fed to cut rates again when it meets later this month at its regularly scheduled policy meeting, and the Canadian central bank is now expected to cut interest rates again in April. Of course, monetary easing does not address supply-chain disruptions or travel cancellations. Easing is meant to flood the system with liquidity and improve consumer and business confidence--just as happened in response to the financial crisis. Expect fiscal stimulus as well in the upcoming federal budget.

All of this will boost housing demand even though reduced travel from China might crimp sales in Vancouver. A potential recession is not good for housing, but lower interest rates certainly fuel what was already a hot spring sales market . Data released today by the Toronto Real Estate Board show that Toronto home prices soared in February, and sales jumped despite low inventories. The number of transactions jumped 46% from February 2019, which was a 10-year sales low as the market struggled with tougher mortgage rules and higher interest rates. February sales were up by about 15% compared to January.

This article was written by DLC's chief economist Dr Sherry Cooper and was originally published on her client newsletter.

Bank of Canada lowers rate by 50 basis points

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 04 Mar 2020 15:18:41 GMT

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement March 4th 2020

The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to 1 ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ½ percent and the deposit rate is 1 percent.

While Canada’s economy has been operating close to potential with inflation on target, the COVID-19 virus is a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks, and monetary and fiscal authorities are responding.

Before the outbreak, the global economy was showing signs of stabilizing, as the Bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, COVID-19 represents a significant health threat to people in a growing number of countries. In consequence, business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted. This has pulled down commodity prices and the Canadian dollar has depreciated. Global markets are reacting to the spread of the virus by repricing risk across a broad set of assets, making financial conditions less accommodative. It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity.

In Canada, GDP growth slowed to 0.3 percent during the fourth quarter of 2019, in line with the Bank’s forecast, although its composition was different. Consumption was stronger than expected, supported by healthy labour income growth. Residential investment continued to grow, albeit at a more moderate pace than earlier in the year. Meanwhile, both business investment and exports weakened.

It is becoming clear that the first quarter of 2020 will be weaker than the Bank had expected. The drop in Canada’s terms of trade, if sustained, will weigh on income growth. Meanwhile, business investment does not appear to be recovering as was expected following positive trade policy developments. In addition, rail line blockades, strikes by Ontario teachers, and winter storms in some regions are dampening economic activity in the first quarter.

CPI inflation in January was stronger than expected, due to temporary factors. Core measures of inflation all remain around 2 percent, consistent with an economy that has been operating close to potential.

In light of all these developments, the outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target. While markets continue to function well, the Bank will continue to ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity.

The Bank continues to closely monitor economic and financial conditions, in coordination with other G7 central banks and fiscal authorities.

Information note

The remaining announcement dates for 2020 are as follows:

April 15, 2020
June 3, 2020
July 15, 2020
September 9, 2020
October 28, 2020
December 9, 2020

Will the Bank of Canada cut rates next Announcement?

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 02 Mar 2020 21:43:16 GMT

Growing fallout from the coronavirus — including tanking stock markets and falling oil prices — means the Bank of Canada is increasingly likely to cut interest rates this week.

Just days ago, the market consensus was that the Bank of Canada would wait until its April meeting before lowering rates by 25 bps, in order to give the Governing Council more time to assess the situation.

But panic selling on the world’s stock markets, as well as a 25%+ drop in the price in WTI crude oil since the start of the year, means markets are nearly fully expecting the Bank of Canada to move its rate cut to its upcoming meeting this Wednesday.

Not only that, but markets are suddenly pricing in three quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year.

Economists at RBC Economics are among those anticipating a rate cut this week.

“The plunge in global equity markets and sharp drop in commodity prices, in particular oil, are bumping up the risks that the confidence hit in financial markets will be mirrored in household and business sentiment,” said RBC’s Deputy Chief Economist, Dawn Desjardins. “The data doesn’t show this yet but with markets extrapolating what looked like a modest hit to global growth from the coronavirus into a full-fledged economic downturn, the bank is likely to want to lean against any deterioration in confidence.”

She added that the bank’s revised call for a rate cut does not remove the possibility for an additional rate cut in April.

“The Bank of Canada doesn’t want to further stoke this fire [household debt-to-income ratios reaching new highs] via rate cuts that could encourage home-buying behaviour,” added economists at TD Economics, who also expect a rate cut this week. “But the unfortunate truth is that it probably can’t do much to manage this market.”

Stephen Brown, Chief Economist at Capital Economics, added that increased confidence of price growth among homeowners may be welcomed by the BoC in this time of growing fear in equity markets.

“We think the Bank would only cut if it were convinced that the disruption caused by the virus elsewhere in the world has already been enough to seriously jeopardize domestic growth…The sharp downward moves in commodity prices are a bigger immediate risk, but volatile market moves may not be enough to persuade the Bank to cut either,” Brown wrote. “All that said, it clearly would not take much more to change the Bank’s mind. While it has been worried about the effects of looser policy on house prices, it may become more welcoming of a further boost to housing wealth if equity values continue to plummet.”

Derek Holt, head of capital markets at Scotiabank, urged the Bank to cut rates right away given the latest developments.

“The Bank of Canada needs to cut. Now. Enough dithering,” he wrote on Friday. “The greater risk to financial stability is not giving the economy a shot in the arm.”

This article is an excerpt from: " BoC Increasingly Likely to Deliver a Surprise Rate Cut This Week " written by Steve Huebl and originally published on Canadian Mortgage Trends Mach 2nd 2020.

Have Questions About the New Stress Test Rate? Here Are Some Answers…

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 21 Feb 2020 15:11:52 GMT

The Department of Finance created shockwaves this week with its announcement that it will be revamping how insured mortgages are stress tested.

Now that the dust has settled, here’s a more in-depth look at the implications.

But first, a quick recap of what’s changing come April 6, 2020:

Current stress test rate for insured mortgages (typically those with less than 20% equity): 5 . 19%
- Based on the Big 6 banks’ posted 5-year fixed rates.
New stress test rate (if it were in effect today): ~4.89%
- Based on a rate equal to the weekly median 5-year fixed insured mortgage rate plus 2%.

Could the new benchmark rate eventually be higher than the current qualification rate?

According to estimates from Mortgage Professionals Canada’s chief economist Will Dunning, yes.

He plotted his estimate of the typical “special offer” rate advertised by major lenders, and as recently as late-2018, the new qualifying rate would have been nearly 40 basis points higher than the new qualifying rate. Dunning notes, however, that it would be beneficial to have official data provided directly from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) to remove some of the guess work from estimating the official average insured mortgage rate.

“Given the history, it’s highly possible that there will be future times when the new qualifying rate will be higher than the posted rate, but I don’t see that as important: the posted rate should never have been part of the mortgage stress tests,” Dunning told CMT.

How will the rate be calculated, exactly?

That’s still to be determined, at least publicly. The Bank of Canada says it can’t confirm if the new benchmark rate will be based on all insured applications (such as 2- to 4-unit properties, self-employed borrowers, second homes, rental properties, etc.) or just a core group.

How much of the mortgage market will be impacted by the stress test rate change?

As of 2018, insured mortgages accounted for less than a third of new mortgages. Although, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced it is also considering a similar change in its formula for stress testing uninsured mortgages (those with less than 20% equity).

How much does it help the average buyer?

There’s no question the new formula for stress testing insured mortgage will help many buyers who are currently just on the cusp of being able to pass the stress test.

Consider that the current stress test rate of 5.19% is a full 283 basis points higher than the lowest available insured mortgage rate on the market.

The new formula will narrow that gap by 30 basis points after April 6. This will decrease the income required to buy a $300,000 home by roughly $1,500, assuming a 5% down payment and 25-year amortization.

Alternatively, it will allow those who can easily pass the stress test to purchase about 5% more home. As Ron Butler of Butler Mortgage Inc. told us, “Someone who qualified for a $500K mortgage (previously) will qualify for $525K in April.”

Does the move go far enough to help buyers?

It depends on who you ask. Industry representatives say the changes are welcome, but that there’s still room for improvement to assist young and aspiring homeowners struggling to enter the housing market.

“A stress test at 4.89% is better than one at 5.19%, but this test threshold is still too high, for several reasons,” MPC’s Chief Economist Will Dunning told CMT.

“Most importantly, the tests fail to acknowledge that by the time of a renewal in five years, the borrower’s income will have increased, usually by more than 10%, and they will have more capacity to make payments. The calculations should, but don’t, take this into consideration.”

Dunning adds that after a five-year term of the borrower faithfully making payments, the outstanding principal will have been reduced by 14-15%. “The design of the test doesn’t properly account for this, and therefore it over-estimates how much the payments would increase. And, it increasingly looks unlikely that rates will rise by anywhere near the 2 percentage points that the revised test will assume.”

Paul Taylor, President and CEO, Mortgage Professionals Canada told BNN Bloomberg that he’s not sure if the change will help qualify a “tremendous” number of additional buyers.

“It certainly will help some folks on the margin,” he said. “But it’s certainly good news for the marketplace from a policy perspective.”

Taylor added the association would like to see the test closer to 75 basis points above a buyer’s contract rate (as opposed to 200 bps) based on calculations that take into account income growth and mortgage principal payment over the term of the mortgage.

Responding to concerns of the change contributing to increased home prices, Taylor said this: “I think the lack of supply is really what is causing the increase in those prices. There are just far more people than there are housing products available for them. This particular change…is not really going to affect the prices in isolation. I think it’s the rest of the dynamics in the market that are going to create the increases that everybody is expecting.”

If you have any questions about how the new stress test could impact your mortgage application, please don't hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts.

This article was written by Steve Huebl from Canadian Mortgage Trends and originally published on Feb 21st 2020, we used a portion of the article to share on our blog!

New Stress Test On Insured Mortgages

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 18 Feb 2020 20:22:21 GMT

Minister Morneau Announces New Benchmark Rate for Qualifying For Insured Mortgages

The new qualifying rate will be the mortgage contract rate or a newly created benchmark very close to it plus 200 basis points, in either case. The News Release from the Department of Finance Canada states, "the Government of Canada has introduced measures to help more Canadians achieve their housing needs while also taking measured actions to contain risks in the housing market. A stable and healthy housing market is part of a strong economy, which is vital to building and supporting a strong middle class."

These changes will come into effect on April 6, 2020. The new benchmark rate will be the weekly median 5-year fixed insured mortgage rate from mortgage insurance applications, plus 2%.

This follows a recent review by federal financial agencies, which concluded that the minimum qualifying rate should be more dynamic to reflect the evolution of market conditions better. Overall, the review concluded that the mortgage stress test is working to ensure that home buyers are able to afford their homes even if interest rates rise, incomes change, or families are faced with unforeseen expenses.

This adjustment to the stress test will allow it to be more representative of the mortgage rates offered by lenders and more responsive to market conditions.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) also announced today that it is considering the same new benchmark rate to determine the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages.

The existing qualification rule, which was introduced in 2016 for insured mortgages and in 2018 for uninsured mortgages, wasn't responsive enough to the recent drop in lending interest rates -- effectively making the stress test too tight. The earlier rule established the big-six bank posted rate plus 2 percentage points as the qualifying rate. Banks have increasingly held back from adjusting their posted rates when 5-year market yields moved downward. With rates falling sharply in recent weeks, especially since the coronavirus scare, the gap between posted and contract mortgage rates has widened even more than what was already evident in the past two years.

This move, effective April 6, should reduce the qualifying rate by about 30 basis points if contract rates remain at roughly today's levels. According to a Department of Finance official, "As of February 18, 2020, based on the weekly median 5-year fixed insured mortgage rate from insured mortgage applications received by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the new benchmark rate would be roughly 4.89%." That's 30 basis points less than today's benchmark rate of 5.19%.

The Bank of Canada will calculate this new benchmark weekly, based on actual rates from mortgage insurance applications, as underwritten by Canada's three default insurers.

OSFI confirmed today that it, too, is considering the new benchmark rate for its minimum stress test rate on uninsured mortgages (mortgages with at least 20% equity).

"The proposed new benchmark for uninsured mortgages is based on rates from mortgage applications submitted by a wide variety of lenders, which makes it more representative of both the broader market and fluctuations in actual contract rates," OSFI said in its release .

"In addition to introducing a more accurate floor, OSFI's proposal maintains cohesion between the benchmarks used to qualify both uninsured and insured mortgages." (Thank goodness, as the last thing the mortgage market needs is more complexity.)

The new rules will certainly add to what was already likely to be a buoyant spring housing market. While it might boost buying power by just 3% (depending on what the new benchmark turns out to be on April 6), the psychological boost will be positive. Homebuyers—particularly first-time buyers—are already worried about affordability, given the double-digit gains of the last 12 months.

If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper DLC's Chief Economist.

January Home Sales Slow Mostly Owing To a Dearth of New Listings

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 14 Feb 2020 16:36:14 GMT

Home Sales Slip A Bit In January As Supply Tightens Pushing Up Prices

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national existing-home sales dipped between December and January owing to a dearth of new listings, especially in the GTA. As the CREA chart below shows, the pace of monthly home resales nevertheless remained strong.

Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems declined by 2.9% in January 2020, although they remain among the stronger monthly readings of the last few years.

Transactions were down in a little over half of all local markets in January, with the national result most impacted by a slowdown of more than 18% in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. According to CREA, "While there were few notable gains in January, it should be noted that many of the weaker results have come alongside a shortage of new supply in markets where inventories are already very tight."

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was still up 11.5% compared to January 2019, marking the best sales figures for the month in 12 years. Transactions surpassed year-ago levels in about two-thirds of all local markets, including most of the largest urban markets. Some of the larger markets where sales were down, such as Ottawa and Windsor-Essex, are currently among some of the tightest supplied markets in Canada.

“Home price growth continues to pick up in housing markets where listings are in short supply, particularly in Southern, Central and Eastern Ontario,” said Jason Stephen, president of CREA. “Meanwhile, ample supply across the Prairies and in Newfoundland and Labrador is resulting in ongoing competition among sellers."

In many tight housing markets, potential sellers appear to be waiting until the spring to list their properties when the weather is better and more buyers are actively looking.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes was little changed in January, edging up a slight 0.2% on the heels of a series of declines which have left new listings at a near-decade low. January’s small month-over-month (m-o-m) change came as the result of declines in a number of larger markets, including Calgary, Edmonton and Montreal, which were offset by gains in the York and Durham Regions of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) where new supply bounced back at the start of 2020 following a sharp slowdown towards the end of last year.

With sales down and new listings up slightly in January, the national sales-to-new listings ratio fell back to 65.1% compared to 67.2% posted in December 2019. Even so, the long-term average for this measure of housing market balance is 53.8%. It has been significantly above that long-term average for the last four months. Barring an unforeseen change in recent trends between the balance of supply and demand for homes, price gains appear poised to accelerate in 2020 .

Indeed, concern is growing that Canada's largest housing market may be about to experience a new round of froth, similar to 2016. “It’s looking more and more like early-2016 all over again for the Toronto housing market. This is not a good sign,” wrote RBC Economics senior economist Robert Hogue. “Those were the days when things started to heat up uncomfortably, propelling property values sky-high in the ensuing year.”

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, close to two-thirds of all local markets were in balanced market territory in January 2020. Apart from a few areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan, the remainder were all favouring sellers. As the chart below shows, the GTA housing market is in sellers' market territory.

There were 4.2 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2020 – the same as in November and December and the lowest level since the summer of 2007. This measure of market balance is now a full month below its long-term average of 5.2 months.

National measures of market balance continue to mask significant and increasing regional variations. The number of months of inventory has swollen far beyond long-term averages in the Prairie provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador, giving homebuyers ample choice in these regions. By contrast, the measure is running well below long-term averages in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritime provinces, resulting in increased competition among buyers for listings and providing fertile ground for price gains. The measure is still in balanced market territory in British Columbia overall but is tightening in the Vancouver area as the chart below indicates.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.8% in January 2020 compared to December, marking its eighth consecutive monthly gain. It is now up 5.5% from last year’s lowest point in May and has set new records in each of the past six months (see the CREA chart below) . The MLS® HPI in January was up from the previous month in 14 of the 18 markets tracked by the index. (see CREA table below).

Home price trends have generally been stabilizing in most Prairie markets in recent months following lengthy declines. Meanwhile, prices are clearly on the rise again in British Columbia and in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). Further east, price growth in Ottawa, Montreal and Moncton continues as it has for some time now, with Montreal and particularly Ottawa having strengthened noticeably in recent months.

Comparing home prices to year-ago levels yields considerable variations across the country, although for the most part trends are still regionally split along east/west lines, with rising gains from Ontario east, and a mixed bag of smaller gains and declines in B.C. and the Prairies.

Home prices in Greater Vancouver (-1.2%) remain slightly below year-ago levels, but declines are still shrinking. Meanwhile, January saw prices back in positive y-o-y territory in the Fraser Valley (+0.3%). Elsewhere in British Columbia, home prices logged y-o-y increases in the Okanagan Valley (+3.5%), Victoria (+3.4%) and elsewhere on Vancouver Island (+4%).

Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon continued to post small y-o-y price declines, while the y-o-y gap has now widened to -6.9% in Regina.

In Ontario, home price growth has re-accelerated across most of the GGH, with a number of markets getting close to double digits. Meanwhile, price gains in recent years have continued uninterrupted in Ottawa (+13.7%), Montreal (+9.8%) and Moncton (+6.4%).

All benchmark home categories tracked by the index accelerated further into positive territory on a y-o-y basis, with similar sized gains among the different property types. Condo apartment unit prices posted the biggest y-o-y increase (+5%) followed closely by two-storey single-family homes (+4.8%), one-storey single-family homes (+4.4%) and townhouse/row units (+4.2%). Earlier this cycle, condo prices markedly outpaced the single-family sector, but in the past year, detached homes have more than caught up.

Also, note in the table below that the benchmark home price in Toronto-area Oakville-Milton at $1.05 million is now above the benchmark price in Greater Vancouver of $1,026. The GTA has a much larger and more diverse housing market with a benchmark price of $.841 million.

Consumer Unsecured Debt is a Bigger Problem Than Mortgage Debt

Bottom Line: Housing markets in Canada are strengthening as interest rates continue to fall, job growth is robust, wage gains are sizable and foreign immigration boosts demand. While the stress test qualifying rate remains stuck at 5.19%, market forces emanating from the coronavirus epidemic are pushing down market rates, and TD Bank has cut its posted rate to 4.99%. If downward pressure continues, which is likely given the news out of China, other big banks may follow the TD lead, reducing the qualifying rate. Regardless, contract mortgage rates are once again under downward pressure.

The Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut its overnight benchmark rate when it meets again March 4. It will point to the resilience of the Canadian economy and the debt exposure of Canadian households. To be sure, much has been made of the eye-catching fact that consumer insolvencies rose by 9.5% in 2019, the most substantial annual increase since the 2008-09 recession. But it should be emphasized that this reflected excessive credit card and auto loans, not mortgage debt.

Consumer insolvencies are comprised of household bankruptcies and proposals (see chart below). Bankruptcies are falling and have been since the economic recovery began in 2009. Last year’s increase reflected a rise in the number of “proposals”—offers to pay creditors a percentage of what is owed and extend the repayment schedule, a remedy available to individuals with up to $250,000 in unsecured debt.

Mortgage debt, on the other hand, has been rock solid. The latest data from the Canadian Bankers Association shows just 0.23% of mortgages were more than 90 days in arrears as of August 2019, matching the lowest rate since 1990. That is not to say mortgage debt isn’t a source of stress for some households—mortgages account for 45% of the average household’s debt servicing costs. But those having trouble making debt payments are likely prioritizing their mortgages over credit cards and auto loans. There has also been an increase in insolvencies among individuals without mortgage debt.

The Bank of Canada and the regulators would do better to focus on the curtailment of excessive unsecured household borrowing than to fixate on mortgage stress testing alone.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper and was originally included in her newsletter. She's awesome, we like her.

TD Posted Rate Lowered to 4.99%

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 10 Feb 2020 20:41:18 GMT

Market interest rates have fallen sharply since the coronavirus-led investor flight to the safety of government bonds. The 5-year government bond yield--a harbinger of conventional mortgage rates--now stands at 1.34%, down sharply from the 1.60+% range it was trading in before the virus became global news (see chart below).

This morning, one of the Big-Six banks finally reacted. TD cut its posted 5-year fixed rate to 4.99%. TD's posted rate had previously been at 5.34%, making this a 36 basis point cut. Other banks had lowered their qualifying rate to 5.19% last July, leading the Bank of Canada to cut its 5-year conventional mortgage rate to 5.19%. This is the qualifying rate under the B-20 rule introduced on January 1, 2018.

Even the regulators have been questioning the efficacy and fairness of using the big-bank posted rate as a qualifying rate for mortgage stress testing.

On January 24, the Assistant Superintendent of OSFI's Regulation Sector, Ben Gully, gave a speech at the C.D. Howe Institute suggesting that the B-20 qualifying mortgage rate historically would be no more than 200 basis points above contract rates. He said that OSFI chose the "best available rate at the time."

He went on to say that for many years, the difference between the benchmark rate and the average contract rate was 200 bps. However, this gap "has been widening more recently, suggesting that the benchmark is less responsive to market changes than when it was first proposed. We are reviewing this aspect of our qualifying rate, as the posted rate is not playing the role that we intended. As always, we will share our results with our federal partners. This will help to inform the advice OSFI might provide to the Minister, as requested in the mandate letter to him. "

By keeping posted rates too high, the Big-Six banks have inflated the qualifying rate, making it more difficult than necessary to pass the stress test to get a mortgage.

While TD's rate cut is welcome news, its posted rate is still too high by historical standards. Given today's average contract rates, the posted rate should be at least 20 bps lower still.

Banks have a strong incentive to inflate their posted mortgage rate. For one thing, they are the basis for the calculation of big-bank mortgage penalties. Also, they are the minimum qualifying rate.

The posted rate does not appropriately reflect the state of the mortgage market as few borrowers would pay this rate. Interestingly, banks often move this rate in lock-step, or close to it, reflecting their dominant oligopolistic position in the marketplace.

If a couple of the other big banks follow TD's lead, the Bank of Canada benchmark rate will be below 5% for the first time since January 2018 when the new B-20 rules were adopted. Lowering the stress test rate by 20 bps from 5.19% to 4.99% would require roughly 1.8% less income to qualify for a mortgage on the average Canadian home price (assuming a 20% downpayment), increasing buying power by 2%. This doesn't sound like much, but it can have a meaningful psychological impact on already improving housing markets. The latest CREA data shows that the national average home price surged 9.6% year-over-year in December. A lower stress test rate would make a busy spring housing market even more active.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper and originally shared on her newsletter Feb 8th 2020.

5 Things You Need to Know Before You Co-Sign a Mortgage!

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 03 Feb 2020 20:10:15 GMT

So you're thinking about co-signing for a mortgage? Okay, do you really know what that means, do you know what you are getting yourself into? Co-signing isn't necessarily a bad thing, but there is certainly a lot of misinformation floating around on the subject. Although it's nice to be in a position to help someone close to you qualify for a mortgage, It's not a decision that should be made lightly. Co-signing on a mortgage could have a significant impact on your future.

Here are some things you should consider before co-signing a mortgage application.

1. Regardless if you're the principal borrower, co-borrower, or co-signor, If you're on the mortgage, you're 100% responsible for the debt of the mortgage and everything that goes along with that. Although the term co-signor makes it sound like you are somehow removed from the actual mortgage, you have all the same legal obligations as everyone else on the mortgage.

2. If the person who you're co-signing for is unable to make the payments for any reason, you will be expected to make them on their behalf. By signing the mortgage documents, you assume full responsibility for the payments (even if it's not you making them).

3. If payments aren't being made, there is a chance the lender will take legal action against you. This includes all available collection methods such as obtaining a judgement in court or garnisheeing your wage or bank accounts. Worse case scenario, they could actually go after your property or assets in order to cover their loses. Now, this is highly unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility.

4. Once the initial term has been completed, you will not automatically be removed from the mortgage. The person who you co-signed for will have to make a new application for the mortgage in their own name and qualify on their own merit. If they don't qualify at this time, you will be kept on the mortgage for the next term.

5. When you co-sign for a mortgage, all of the debt of the co-signed mortgage is counted against you. This means that if you're looking to buy another property in the future, you will have to include the payments of the co-signed mortgage in your debt service ratios, even though you're not the one making the payments. This could significantly impact the amount you can borrow in the future.

If you have any questions about co-signing on a mortgage, or about the mortgage application process in general, we'd love to discuss it with you. Please don't hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Maternity/Parental Leave, and Qualifying for a Mortgage

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 27 Jan 2020 17:42:38 GMT

So your family is growing! Congratulations!

If you’ve thought now is the time to find a new property to accommodate your growing family, but you’re unsure how your maternity or parental leave will impact your ability to get a mortgage, you’ve come to the right place!

Here’s the skinny. It won’t be a problem to qualify your income on a mortgage application, as long as you have documentation proving that you have a guaranteed position to return to.

While taking parental/maternity leave, if you walk into your local bank to get qualified, there is a chance they will only allow you to use the income you are currently receiving to qualify for a mortgage (55% of your income up to $562/week). This means you will qualify for significantly less, as your income is a fraction of what it is when you’re working.

The advantage of working with a mortgage broker is that you have a choice between mortgage products and institutions. This includes lenders who will use 100% of your return to work income. To do this, you need an employment letter from your employer that states the following:

Your employer’s name
Your position
Your initial start date
Your return to work date
Your salary

From there, you might also need to provide a history of income, but that is typical to mortgage financing.

What you decide to do; whether you return to work after your parental/maternity leave or not, is entirely up to you. However, for a lender to feel confident in your ability to cover your mortgage payments while qualifying, you will need to have a position waiting for you once your leave is over, and the letter to prove it.

If you have any questions about this or anything else mortgage qualification related, please don’t hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 22nd, 2020

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 22 Jan 2020 15:36:20 GMT

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 percent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ percent.

The global economy is showing signs of stabilization, and some recent trade developments have been positive. However, there remains a high degree of uncertainty and geopolitical tensions have re-emerged, with tragic consequences. The Canadian economy has been resilient but indicators since the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR) have been mixed.

Data for Canada indicate that growth in the near term will be weaker, and the output gap wider, than the Bank projected in October. The Bank now estimates growth of 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2020. Exports fell in late 2019, and business investment appears to have weakened after a strong third quarter. Job creation has slowed and indicators of consumer confidence and spending have been unexpectedly soft. In contrast, residential investment was robust through most of 2019, moderating to a still-solid pace in the fourth quarter.

Some of the slowdown in growth in late 2019 was related to special factors that include strikes, poor weather, and inventory adjustments. The weaker data could also signal that global economic conditions have been affecting Canada’s economy to a greater extent than was predicted. Moreover, during the past year Canadians have been saving a larger share of their incomes, which could signal increased consumer caution. This could dampen consumer spending but help to alleviate financial vulnerabilities at the same time.

Looking ahead, Canadian business investment and exports are expected to contribute modestly to growth, supported by stronger global activity and demand. The Bank is also projecting a pickup in household spending, supported by population and income growth, as well as by the recent federal income tax cut. In its January MPR, the Bank projects the global economy will grow by just over 3 percent in 2020 and 3 ¼ percent in 2021. For Canada, the Bank now forecasts real GDP will grow by 1.6 percent this year and 2 percent in 2021, following 1.6 percent growth in 2019.

While the output gap has widened in recent months, measures of inflation remain around 2 percent. This is consistent with an economy that, until recently, has been operating close to capacity. The Bank expects inflation will stay around the 2 percent target over the projection horizon, with some fluctuations in 2020 from volatility in energy prices. Meanwhile, labour markets in most regions have little slack and wages continue to firm.

In determining the future path for the Bank’s policy interest rate, Governing Council will be watching closely to see if the recent slowdown in growth is more persistent than forecast. In assessing incoming data, the Bank will be paying particular attention to developments in consumer spending, the housing market, and business investment.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 4, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on April 15, 2020.

The remaining announcement dates for 2020 are as follows:

March 4, 2020
April 15, 2020
June 3, 2020
July 15, 2020
September 9, 2020
October 28, 2020
December 9, 2020

To view the monetary policy report, follow this link.

Weak New Listings Slow Canadian Home Sales as Prices Continue to Rise.

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 15 Jan 2020 18:26:03 GMT

Sellers Housing Market Now in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national existing-home sales dipped between November and December owing to a dearth of new listings, especially in the GTA.

National home sales edged down 0.9% in the final month of 2019, ending a streak of monthly gains that began last March. Activity is now about 18% above the six-year low reached in February 2019 but ends the year about 7% below the peak recorded in 2016 and 2017 (see chart below).

There was an almost even split between the number of local markets where activity rose and those where it declined, with higher sales in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Calgary and Montreal offsetting declines in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Ottawa.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 22.7% compared to the quiet month of December in 2018. Transactions surpassed year-ago levels across most of Canada, including all of the largest urban markets.

The December decline in home sales is not a sign of weakness but is instead the result of diminishing supply. Excess demand continues to push up prices in most regions of Canada. Demand has been boosted by low interest rates, strong population growth and strong labour markets that have triggered significant gains in household incomes. Mitigating this, in part, is the mortgage stress-test, which continues to sideline some potential buyers.

According to Gregory Klump, CREA's Chief Economist, "The momentum for home price gains picked up as last year came to a close. If the recent past is prelude, then price trends in British Columbia, the GTA, Ottawa and Montreal look set to lift the national result this year, despite the continuation of a weak pricing environment among housing markets across the Prairie region."

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes slid a further 1.8% in December following a 2.7% decline the month before, leaving supply close to its lowest level in a decade.

Slightly higher sales and a drop in new listings further tightened the national sales-to-new listings ratio to 66.3%, which is well above the long-term average of 53.7%. If current trends continue, the balance between supply and demand makes further home price gains likely.

December’s drop was driven mainly by fewer new listings in the GTA and Ottawa–the same markets most responsible for the decline in sales. Listings available for purchase are now running at a 12-year low. The number of housing markets with a shortage of listings is on the rise; should current trends persist, fewer available listings will likely increasingly weigh on sales activity.

With new listings having declined by more than sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio further tightened to 66.9% in December 2019 – the highest reading since the spring of 2004. The long-term average for this measure of housing market balance is 53.7%. Price gains appear poised to accelerate in 2020.

Considering the degree and duration to which market balance readings are above or below their long-term averages is the best way of gauging whether local housing market conditions favour buyers or sellers. Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of their long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, just over half of all local markets were in balanced market territory in December 2019. That list still includes Greater Vancouver (GVA) but no longer consists of the GTA, where market balance favours sellers in purchase negotiations (see chart below). By contrast, an oversupply of homes relative to demand across much of Alberta and Saskatchewan means sales negotiations remain tilted in favour of buyers. Meanwhile, an ongoing shortage of homes available for purchase across most of Ontario, Quebec and the Maritime provinces means sellers there hold the upper hand in sales negotiations.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between sales and the supply of listings. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. There were 4.2 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of December 2019 – the lowest level recorded since the summer of 2007. This measure of market balance has been falling further below its long-term average of 5.3 months. While still within balanced market territory, its current reading suggests that sales negotiations are becoming increasingly tilted in favour of sellers.

There remain significant and increasing disparities in housing market activity across regions of Canada. The number of months of inventory has swollen far beyond long-term averages in Prairie provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador, giving homebuyers ample choice in these regions. By contrast, the measure is running well below long-term averages in Ontario, Quebec and Maritime provinces, resulting in increased competition among buyers for listings and providing fertile ground for price gains. The measure is still within balanced market territory in British Columbia but is becoming increasingly tilted in favour of sellers.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.8%, marking its seventh consecutive monthly gain. It is now up nationally 4.7% from last year’s lowest point posted in May. The MLS® HPI in December was up from the previous month in 14 of the 18 markets tracked by the index. ( see table below).

Home price trends have generally been stabilizing in the Prairies in recent months following lengthy declines but are clearly on the rise again in British Columbia and Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). Further east, price growth in Ottawa and Montreal has been ongoing for some time and strengthened toward the end of 2019.

Comparing home prices to year-ago levels yields considerable variations across the country, although for the most part has been regionally split along east/west lines, with declines in the Lower Mainland and major Prairie markets and gains in central and eastern Canada.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) Aggregate Composite MLS® (HPI) rose 3.4% y-o-y in December 2019, the biggest year-over-year gain since March 2018.

Home prices in Greater Vancouver (-3.1%) and the Fraser Valley (-2%) remain below year-ago levels, but declines are shrinking. Elsewhere in British Columbia, home prices logged y-o-y increases in the Okanagan Valley (+4.2%), Victoria (+2.3%) and elsewhere on Vancouver Island (+4.2%).

Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon posted y-o-y price declines of around -1% to -2%, while the gap has widened to -4.6% in Regina.

In Ontario, home price growth has re-accelerated well above consumer price inflation across most of the GGH. Meanwhile, price gains in recent years have continued uninterrupted in Ottawa, Montreal and Moncton.

All benchmark home categories tracked by the index accelerated further into positive territory on a y-o-y basis. One-storey single-family home prices posted the most significant increase (3.6%) followed closely by apartment units (3.4%) and two-storey single-family homes (3.3%). Townhouse/row unit prices climbed a slightly more modest 2.7% compared to December 2018.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in December 2019 was around $517,000, up 9.6% from the same month the previous year.

The national average price is heavily skewed by sales in the GVA and GTA, two of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations cuts more than $117,000 from the national average price, trimming it to around $400,000 and reducing the y-o-y gain to 6.7%.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC's chief economist and was originally included in her regular newsletter published on Jan 15th 2020.

Sigh of Relief as December Jobs Report Rebounds

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 10 Jan 2020 16:27:34 GMT

Employment rebounds following shockingly weak jobs report in November. Good news for the economy.

For this notoriously volatile data series, it is particularly true that 'one month does not a trend make.' Following last month's dismal employment report, job growth rebounded in December, erasing almost half of the earlier decline (even more if you exclude transitory factors in November). As well, the unemployment rate reversed much of its November spike, capping the second-best year of job growth since the recession and supporting the Bank of Canada's view that the Canadian economy is resilient.

Canada's economy created 35,200 net new jobs in December, bringing the total number of jobs added to 320,300 in 2019, the second-most since 2007. The jobless rate ticked down three basis points to 5.6% and wage gains decelerated to a still-healthy 3.8% from a year earlier.

All of the job creation was in full-time employment in the private sector. Provincially, employment gains in December were led by Ontario and Quebec; British Columbia led declines. Construction jobs increased markedly, with BC and Ontario contributing the most to the rise. Following two months of decline, employment in manufacturing was little changed in December. The trade war has hit manufacturing hard, and even though a trade deal will be signed by China and the US next week, it does not eliminate the bulk of the tariffs imposed in the past year.

In December, BC continued to have the lowest jobless rate in the country at 4.8% (see Table below). Ontario and Quebec are now running neck-in-neck following a period of stronger job growth in Quebec. Atlantic Canada remains in the last place with secularly high unemployment rates--a long-standing situation.

Bottom Line : the December employment report confirms the Bank of Canada's current policy stance that despite headwinds, the Canadian economy remains relatively resilient and that further interest rate cuts are unnecessary. This assessment can change on a dime in today's uncertain world, but for now, the central bank is likely to remain on hold. Interest rates have risen in the past six-to-eight weeks owing to market forces. The fourth-quarter GDP growth in Canada has slowed markedly on weakness in consumer and business spending; hence the Bank will be monitoring closely upcoming data. We are forecasting roughly 1.8% growth in the economy in 2020, about in line with the 2019 pace. With very tight labour markets, the output gap has closed, and the economy will run at the longer-run potential growth pace consistent with our forecast.

Consumer Confidence Down

Canadian consumers appear to be less sanguine about the outlook than economists. In an end-of-year survey for Bloomberg News by Nanos Research Group, 55% of Canadians said there’s at least a “somewhat likely” chance of a recession this year. Only 33% reported a recession is unlikely, with 12% unsure. According to Bloomberg News, " the downbeat perceptions reflect a pervasive sense of caution that has dogged the country’s households for more than a year and impacted their behaviour."

Excluding housing, annual growth in total household consumption has averaged 1.1% in real terms over the past four quarters, the slowest pace outside recession since at least 1962. Another sign of cautiousness: savings rates are inching higher and are now at their highest level since 2015.

Bloomberg reports that "there are also indications that consumer worries have levelled off. The results are little changed from a similar poll taken at the end of November. A separate gauge of consumer confidence -- the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index -- saw a rebound in December from a two-month slide, as stock markets surged at the end of last year and sentiment around real estate recovered."

Not surprisingly, recession concerns are most pronounced in prairie provinces like Alberta, where almost three-quarters of households see a chance of a 2020 contraction. Alberta has been hard hit by the plunge in oil prices since mid-2014 and is only slowly recovering. A majority of respondents in British Columbia and Ontario are also concerned a downturn is imminent. Quebec was the only province where optimists outnumbered pessimists.

Consumer confidence in the US has also declined, yet the stock markets in both countries continue to post record highs. We are in the eleventh year of economic expansion, the longest expansion on record, although it is not the strongest. Unlike the US, Canada has benefitted from a surge in immigration in the past three years, boosting growth.

Canadian housing markets have rebounded considerably from the Jan 1, 2018 imposition of the B-20 mortgage stress tests and fiscal stimulus is likely in the next budget, cutting taxes for the middle class and boosting government spending. Such stimulus will likely forestall further weakening in the economy.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper and was originally published on Jan 10, 2020, included in her regular newsletter.

The great debate: Gen-X Vs. Millennial

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 06 Jan 2020 17:27:41 GMT

When it comes to buying a home, who has/had it worse?

If you’ve ever been around a Gen-Xer and Millennial together, you’ve probably heard this debate before: Who had it easier trying to get into the housing market?

Undoubtedly, the millennial will claim there is no struggle greater than the one they currently face, while the Gen-Xer will tell their younger cohort that they are spoiled and don’t understand how hard it was to adult in the 90s.

So, are millennials better or worse off than Gen-Xers at the same age?

A report earlier this year from Stats Canada set out to settle the debate with some interesting findings.

For starters, the study found on average young millennials earned more than young Gen-Xers. Specifically, Gen-Xers between the age of 25 and 34 in 1999 earned on average $51,000 annually compared to millennials who earned $66,500 in 2016.

The study found that millennials in 2016 also had higher assets and net worth then their grunge-era counterparts in 1999 at $154,000 to just $76,700 respectively.

However, millennials were found to be more indebted, with a debt-to-after-tax-ratio at 216 per cent compared to 125 per cent for Gen-Xers.

The study also found millennials are taking on larger mortgages then previous generations. The median mortgage debt on the principal

residences of a millennial between the ages of 30 and 34 in 2016 was $218,000 compared to $117,500 for Gen-Xers in 1999.

Interestingly, though their median net worth is higher, there are greater differences in economic well-being among millennials, specifically, millennials in the top 10 per cent held 55 per cent of all total net worth accumulated by their generation.

The study also found that millennials are entering the housing market at similar rates as previous young generations.

So, who can claim the biggest hardship to getting into market? That would depend on how you want to spin the facts. Instead, maybe the key is in the finding that millennials are getting into the market at the same level as their parents and grandparents did before them.

Of course, there have been a number of market factors and challenges each generation has had to face. Consider late boomers trying to get into the housing market with interest rates at nearly 20 per cent in the early 80s, or the recession and economic malaise of the 1990s.

At the end of the day, and this study proves it, young people in every generation have found a way to look past the challenges in their face, and fulfill the dream of homeownership. And if you’re a young person ready to buy or soon to be, any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts would be happy to help get you there.

Pride in Ownership Can Pay Off

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 30 Dec 2019 15:44:49 GMT

Any prospective homebuyer knows this situation well. You’re set up for a viewing but when you get there the condition is less than ideal. Maybe the toilets are dirty, or the cluttered kitchen is hiding its full potential. Immediately, you’re turned off and you’ve moved on to another property.

For the owner, that’s sale opportunity lost.

In a lot cases, buyers can’t really see beyond what’s in front of them. A messy place not only makes your home harder to see, it can cost you money.

Depending on who you talk to in the real estate industry, a messy home compared to a clean house could fetch up to a $20,000 swing.

That’s a lot of money for a weekend of washing walls, decluttering, taking the trash out, running the vacuum and putting some elbow grease.

There are few simple things during this time of year that can help make your home stand out above the rest.

1) While winter can be lovely, it can also get a little messy. Especially around the yard with all those snowy and muddy days. If you want to boost the curb appeal before prospective buyers step foot in your home, you’ll want to make sure you clean your walkways. Don’t be afraid to take advantage of a dry day to keep your garden looking presentable. A little maintenance goes a long way!

2) Winter is all about colour. It’s time to put away all those bright colours for the more earthy tones of the season. If you’re not sure, those are browns, greys, orange and greens. Change your bed spreads, pillows and rugs to match the season. It doesn’t hurt to throw up a fresh coat of paint or an accent wall in an olive or burnt orange hue.

3) Winter also seems to have a smell. And you can recreate that in your home. The fresh scent of cinnamon or ginger are perfect for the season. You don’t want to go overboard, but nothing feels more welcoming then a home that smells of love and food. You can also decorate your home with the fruit of the season in a decorative bowl. It doesn’t even have to be in the kitchen. It can be right at the front entrance.

4) The change of season is a great time to make sure your maintenance is up to date. For the exterior, that means cleaning your gutters, windows and deck. If you have a pool, making sure it’s properly covered and tucked away for the winter. Inside, make sure the furnace and all your electrical components are working including your appliances. Nothing turns off a buyer more than looking at a home in disrepair.

5) The days are short and the weather tends to be a little unpredictable, so you’ll want to ensure your home is bright. If you’ve got some burned out lights both inside and out, replace them. And before a buyer comes in for showing, turn on all your lights. Keep your blinds and curtains open to let in as much light.

If you’re about to put your prized possession on the market, treat it like one and take pride in ownership.

This article was originally published as part of the Dominion Lending Centres December Newsletter.

Canadian housing market continued to strengthen in November.

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 17 Dec 2019 11:16:44 GMT

November Data Confirm Canadian Housing Rebound

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales rose for the ninth consecutive month and now stands a full 20% above the six-year low reached in February 2019. While the chart below shows that monthly home sales are now well above their 10-year average, they remain 6%-to7% below the record pace posted in 2016 and 2017.

There was an almost even split between the number of local markets where activity rose and those where it declined. Higher sales across much of British Columbia and in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) offset a decline in activity in Calgary.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 11.3% year-over-year in November. Transactions surpassed year-ago levels in almost all of Canada’s largest urban markets.

“Sales continue to improve in some regions and not so much in others,” said Jason Stephen, president of CREA. “The mortgage stress-test doesn’t help relieve the ongoing shortage of housing in markets where sales have improved, and it continues to hammer housing demand in markets with ample supply."

According to Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist, "Home prices look set to continue rising in housing markets where sales are recovering amid an ongoing shortage of supply. By the same token, home prices will likely continue trending lower in places where there’s a significant overhang of supply, perpetuated in part by the B-20 mortgage stress-test that continues to sideline homebuyers there.” Weakness continues to be most evident in Alberta and Saskatchewan where the economy has been hard hit by lower commodity prices and delinquency rates have edged upward.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes slid a further 2.7%, putting them among the lowest levels posted in the past decade. November’s decline was driven primarily by fewer new listings in the GTA.

Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of their long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions. Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, just over half of all local markets were in balanced market territory in November. That list includes the GTA and Lower Mainland of British Columbia, but market balance there is tightening. By contrast, an oversupply of homes relative to demand across much of Alberta and Saskatchewan means sales negotiations remain tilted in favour of buyers.

Meanwhile, an ongoing shortage of supply of homes available for purchase across most of Ontario, Quebec and the Maritime provinces means sellers there hold the upper hand in sales negotiations. There were just 4.2 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2019 – the lowest level recorded since the summer of 2007. This measure of market balance has been retreating further below its long-term average of 5.3 months. While still just within balanced market territory, its current reading suggests that sales negotiations are becoming increasingly tilted in favour of sellers.

National measures of market balance continue to mask significant and increasing regional variations. The number of months of inventory has swollen far beyond long-term averages in Prairie provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador, giving homebuyers ample choice in these regions. By contrast, the measure is running well below long-term averages in Ontario, Quebec and Maritime provinces, resulting in increased competition among buyers for listings and providing fertile ground for price gains. The measure is still within balanced market territory in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia but is becoming increasingly tilted in favour of sellers.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.8%. Marking its sixth consecutive monthly gain, it now stands almost 4% above its low point reached last May. The MLS® HPI in November was up from the previous month in 14 of the 18 markets tracked by the index. (Table 1)

Home price trends have generally been stabilizing in the Prairies in recent months. While that remains the case in Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon, prices in Regina have again moved lower. By contrast, home price trends have clearly started to recover in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. Meanwhile, prices continue to rebound in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region while continuing to trend higher in housing markets to the east of it.

Comparing home prices to year-ago levels yields considerable variations across the country, with a mix of gains and declines in western Canada together with price gains in eastern Canada.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) Aggregate Composite MLS® (HPI) was up 2.6% y-o-y in November 2019, the biggest year-over-year gain since March 2018.

Home prices in Greater Vancouver (-4.6%) and the Fraser Valley (-2.9%) remain below year-ago levels but declines are shrinking. Elsewhere in British Columbia, home prices logged y-o-y increases in the Okanagan Valley (+1.4%), Victoria (+1.5%) and elsewhere on Vancouver Island (+2.8%).

Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon posted price declines of around -2% y-o-y, while the gap widened to -5.5% y-o-y in Regina.

In Ontario, price growth has re-accelerated well ahead of overall consumer price inflation across most of the GGH. Meanwhile, price growth in recent years has continued uninterrupted in Ottawa, Montreal and Moncton.

All benchmark home categories tracked by the index accelerated further into positive territory on a y-o-y basis. Two-storey single-family home prices posted the biggest increase, rising 2.8% y-o-y. Price gains were almost as strong for apartment units (+2.6% y-o-y) and one-storey single-family homes (+2.5% y o y), while townhouse/row prices climbed a more modest 1.5% compared to November 2018.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper and was included in her client newsletter, but we thought it contained some pretty good information so we shared it on our blog, just for you! Have a fabulous day!

Weakest Canadian Employment Report in a Decade

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 09 Dec 2019 18:07:09 GMT

Shockingly weak jobs report in November on the heels of tepid report in October. Will BoC rethink its stance?

Huge Decline in Jobs in November As Jobless Rate Surges

One month does not a trend make. Statistics Canada announced this morning that the country lost 71,200 jobs in November , the worst performance in a decade. What's more, the details of the jobs report are no better than the headline. Full-time employment was down 38.4k, and the private sector shed 50.2k. The jobless rate also rose sharply, up four ticks (the most significant monthly jump since the recession), to 5.9%. Hours worked fell 0.3%, and remain an area of persistent disappointment—they’re now up just 0.25% y/y, much more muted than the 1.6% annual job gain.

The one area of strength was wages , with growth accelerating to match a cycle high at 4.5% y/y. But wages tend to lag the labour market cycle, so if this weakness is the start of something bigger, wages gains are likely to slow.

The monthly moves were soft, no matter how you slice them. Both full-time (-38.4k) and part-time employment (-32.8k) were down. Similarly, private sector employment (-50.2k) led the way, but self-employment (-18.7k) and the public sector (-2.3k) also saw net losses.

Until last month, we saw a long string of robust job reports in what is usually a very volatile data series, so a correction is not surprising. But this report appears to be more than a statistical quirk and belies the Bank of Canada's statements this week that the Canadian economy remains resilient. Employment is still up 26k per month in 2019 to date consistent with a 1.6% y/y gain, and most of that comes from full-time work. And some of the drop in November reflected a decline in public administration jobs retracing October's gain that might have been related to the federal election. Nevertheless, the 0.4 percentage point uptick in the jobless rate is the largest since the financial crisis in early 2009, and manufacturing jobs were down more than 50k over the past two months.

By industry, job declines were widespread in the month, with only 5 of 16 major sectors posting improvement. Net losses were shared across both the goods and service sectors. Manufacturing (-27.5k) shed jobs for a second month, and notable declines were seen in public administration (-24.9k, likely a reflection of post-election adjustment) and accommodation and food services (-11k).

By region, Ontario and PEI were the only provinces to manage job growth last month, with all others deeply in the red. Quebec stands out, shedding 45.1k net positions in a second monthly employment decline and pushing the unemployment up to 5.6% (from 5.0%; the largest monthly increase in nearly eight years). Quebec's jobless rate is now equivalent to that in Ontario. Things were not much better out west: Alberta and B.C. both lost 18.2k net positions. In the case of the former, this was enough to send the unemployment rate up half a point, to 7.2%. Ontario bucked the trend, adding 15.4k net positions, just shy of erasing the prior month's drop. Still, the unemployment rate in the province rose to 5.3% (from 5.0%), as more people joined the labour force. (See the table below.)

Job growth slowed in the second half of this year. Over that period, the average monthly job gain has been a paltry 5.9k compared to an average monthly gain of 24.4k over the past year. For private sector employment, the equivalent figure flipped into negative territory (-4.3k) for the first time in more than a year.

Bottom Line : Today's report means that the Bank of Canada will be keeping an even more watchful eye on the jobs report. The year-on-year pace of net hiring has decelerated for three straight months now, driven in large part by a slowing pace of private-sector hiring. It seems a safe bet that even if we see some recovery in the coming months, the substantial gains of recent years are unlikely to be repeated.

The Bank of Canada has been emphasizing Canada's economic resilience in its recent communications. One month of soft jobs data will hardly break that narrative, but coming after a modest October, it is not hard to imagine a hair more worry about the durability of growth. The bigger question is whether this weakness persists, and more importantly if it feeds into consumer spending behaviour and housing activity, the Bank's key bellwethers.

We continue to believe that the BoC will cut rates in 2020, owing mainly to Canada's vulnerability to trade uncertainty. The loonie sold off sharply on the employment news, particularly so because of the stronger-than-expected labour market report released this morning in the US.

In October, employment increased in British Columbia and Newfoundland and Labrador and was little changed in the other provinces. Employment declined in manufacturing and construction. At the same time, net new jobs were up in public administration and finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing. The number of self-employed workers decreased, while the number of employees in the public sector increased for the second consecutive month.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper, it was originally included in her subscriber email list and published with permission.

Final Bank of Canada Rate Announcement for 2019

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 04 Dec 2019 15:08:10 GMT

Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ percent

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 percent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ percent.

The Bank’s October projection for global economic growth appears to be intact. There is nascent evidence that the global economy is stabilizing, with growth still expected to edge higher over the next couple of years. Financial markets have been supported by central bank actions and waning recession concerns, while being buffeted by news on the trade front. Indeed, ongoing trade conflicts and related uncertainty are still weighing on global economic activity, and remain the biggest source of risk to the outlook. In this context, commodity prices and the Canadian dollar have remained relatively stable.

Growth in Canada slowed in the third quarter of 2019 to 1.3 percent, as expected. Consumer spending expanded moderately, underpinned by stronger wage growth. Housing investment was also a source of strength, supported by population growth and low mortgage rates. The Bank continues to monitor the evolution of financial vulnerabilities related to the household sector. As expected, exports contracted, driven by non-energy commodities. However, investment spending unexpectedly showed strong growth, notably in transportation equipment and engineering projects. The Bank will be assessing the extent to which this points to renewed momentum in investment.

CPI inflation in Canada remains at target, and measures of core inflation are around 2 percent, consistent with an economy operating near capacity. Inflation will increase temporarily in the coming months due to year-over-year movements in gasoline prices. The Bank continues to expect inflation to track close to the 2 percent target over the next two years.

Based on developments since October, Governing Council judges it appropriate to maintain the current level of the overnight rate target. Future interest rate decisions will be guided by the Bank’s continuing assessment of the adverse impact of trade conflicts against the sources of resilience in the Canadian economy – notably consumer spending and housing activity. Fiscal policy developments will also figure into the Bank’s updated outlook in January.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 22, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

The announcement dates for 2020 are as follows:

January 22, 2020
March 4, 2020
April 15, 2020
June 3, 2020
July 15, 2020
September 9, 2020
October 28, 2020
December 9, 2020

Improving Your Credit Score isn’t as Hard as You Think

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 21 Nov 2019 16:30:30 GMT

If you’re credit challenged but want to get into the housing market, it can be a tough road to hoe. But improving your credit to a point where a lender will give you chance, is very doable.

First, I won’t bore you with the detailed minutia of credit scores. Basically, what you need to know is a score above 680 puts you in a good position to get financing, while below will make it tough and improvement is needed.

Your credit score tells lenders some basic stuff about your credit: How long you’ve had credit, your ability to pay back that credit and how much you owe. And so your credit score is affected by how much debt you’re carrying in regards to limit, how many cards or tradelines you have and your history of repayment.

If you’re a young person and new to the world of credit, consider the 2-2-2 rule to help build up your credit. Lenders want to see two forms or revolving credit, like credit cards, with limits no less than $2,000 and a clean history of payment for two years. It’s also good to note, a great credit score will also include keeping a balance on all those cards at any given time below 30 per cent of the limit.

To ensure your score stays in playoff form, make sure to pay off any collections, like parking tickets, and correct any old or incorrect reporting on your credit score by contacting Equifax to have it removed. Some people also forget their credit cards have an annual fee and fail to pay them off too.

This cannot be stressed enough, if you want to keep or attain a good credit score, you have to pay your credit cards or tradelines on time regardless of whether you owe $1 or $1 million.

There is a tendency when things get really bad to consider declaring bankruptcy or a consumer proposal. A consumer proposal is a formal, legally binding process to pay creditors a percentage of what is owed to them.

You really want to avoid these two options. Instead, there are companies out there that will perform the same function and negotiate your debts, but it won’t impact your credit or carry the stigma of bankruptcy or a consumer proposal.

Lastly, if you already own a home and have some equity, but you’re still drowning in credit debt, consider refinancing your mortgage. Sure, you might not get the great rate you have now or you might get dinged for breaking your mortgage early, but using the equity in your home to get rid of high interest credit payments could keep more money in your pocket at the end of the day.

This article originally appeared on the monthly DLC Newsletter

Canadian Housing Market Continued To Strengthen In October

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 18 Nov 2019 16:35:04 GMT

October Data Confirm That Housing Is in Full Rebound

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales rose for the eighth consecutive month. Activity held steady in October at the relatively robust September pace following a string of monthly increases that began in March. Existing home sales are now almost 20% above the six-year low reached in February 2019, but remain 7% below the heights reached in 2016 and 2017 when many fretted over a housing bubble (see chart below).

Housing activity in roughly half of the local markets rose offset by the other half that fell. Higher sales in Greater Vancouver (GVA), the neighbouring Fraser Valley and Ottawa offset a monthly decline in activity in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), particularly in Central Toronto, and Hamilton-Burlington.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity rose 12.9% year-over-year. Transactions were up from year-ago levels in 80% of all local markets in October, including all of Canada’s largest urban markets.

All was not rosy, however. “It’s a full-blown buyer’s market or on the cusp of one in a number of housing markets across the Prairies and in Newfoundland,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Homebuyers there have the upper hand in purchase negotiations and the mortgage stress-test has contributed to that by reducing the number of competing buyers who can qualify for mortgage financing while market conditions are in their favour.”

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes fell by 1.8% in October, with the GTA and Ottawa posting the most significant declines. Almost a third of all housing markets posted a monthly decrease of at least 5%, while about a fifth of all markets posted a monthly increase of at least 5%.

Steady sales and fewer new listings further tightened the national sales-to-new listings ratio to 63.7%. This measure has been increasingly rising above its long-term average of 53.6%. Its current reading suggests that sales negotiations are becoming more and more tilted in favour of sellers; however, the national measure continues to mask significant regional variations.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, just over two-thirds of all local markets were in balanced market territory in October 2019, including the GTA and Lower Mainland of British Columbia. Nonetheless, sales negotiations remain tilted in favour of buyers in housing markets located in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador.

There were 4.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of October 2019—the lowest level recorded since April 2017. This measure of market balance has been retreating further below its long-term average of 5.3 months. While still within balanced market territory, its current reading suggests that sales negotiations are becoming more tilted in favour of sellers.

National measures of market balance continue to mask significant regional variations. The number of months of inventory has swollen far beyond long-term averages in the Prairie provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador, giving homebuyers an ample choice in these regions. By contrast, the measure is running well below long-term averages in Ontario, Quebec and Maritime provinces, resulting in increased competition among buyers for listings and providing fertile ground for price gains. The measure is still well centred within balanced market territory in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.6%, marking its fifth consecutive monthly gain. Seasonally adjusted MLS® HPI readings in October were up from the previous month in 14 of the 18 markets tracked by the index. (Table below)

Recently, home price trends have generally been stabilizing in the Lower Mainland and the Prairies. While that remains the case in Calgary and Saskatoon, home prices in Edmonton and Regina continue to decline. By contrast, home price trends have started to recover in the GVA and the neighbouring Fraser Valley.

Meanwhile, price growth continues to rebound in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). In markets further east, price growth has been trending higher for the last three or four years.

Comparing home prices to year-ago levels yields considerable variations across the country, with mostly declines in western Canada and mostly price gains in eastern Canada.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) Aggregate Composite MLS® (HPI) was up 1.8% y-o-y in October 2019, the biggest year-over-year gain since November 2018.

Home prices in the GVA (-6.4%) and the Fraser Valley (-4.2%) are still below year-ago levels, although declines are becoming smaller.

Elsewhere in British Columbia, home prices logged y-o-y increases on Vancouver Island and in the Okanagan Valley (3.1% and 2%, respectively) while having edged marginally higher in Victoria (0.5% y-o-y).

Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon posted price declines in the range of -1.5% to -2.5% on a y-o-y basis in October, while the gap between this year and last year widened sharply to -6.8% in Regina.

Bottom Line

This report is in line with other recent indicators that suggest housing has recovered from a slump earlier, helped by low mortgage rates. The run of robust housing data gave the Bank of Canada another reason-- along with healthy j ob gains and higher wage rates -- to hold interest rates steady. However, the central bank has become more cautious in its outlook. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, one of the few central bankers to resist the global push toward easier monetary policy, acknowledged he’s begun to consider the merits of joining other countries in lowering borrowing costs.

At a press conference after the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep the current 1.75% policy interest rate unchanged for an eighth straight meeting, Poloz said his governing council discussed the possibility of implementing an “insurance” cut to counter the global economic headwinds. But, the council decided against it because of the potential costs to such a move. These include driving up inflation already at the central bank’s 2% target and fueling household debt levels that are among the highest in the world.

“Governing Council considered whether the downside risks to the Canadian economy were sufficient at this time to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy as a form of insurance against those risks, and we concluded that they were not,” Poloz said. The Bank of Canada “is mindful that the resilience of Canada’s economy will be increasingly tested as trade conflicts and uncertainty persist.”

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, but we liked it, so we shared it on our blog. It was originally published on Nov 15th as part of her regular newsletter.

Tips for homebuying with family members

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 14 Nov 2019 00:00:00 GMT

Pooling resources with parents or siblings opens possibilities when it comes to buying a home everyone can afford. Homebuying requires careful planning though, since there’s so much at stake—and money is the least of it; we’re talking love and loyalty here.

If you want to buy a home with family members (and still be on speaking terms during family functions) this is what you need to consider.

Answer this: Why are you moving in together?

Perhaps mom and dad need to downsize and want to be closer to their children. Maybe one of those children needs after-school care for the kids, or someone has gone through a divorce and needs family support…

Besides saving money, families considering buying a home together often have non-financial issues that make it a good choice. Agree on how you’ll all help each other—cooking communal meals; driving parents to medical appointments or kids to school; etc.

Now you need to separate those personal arrangements from the legal aspects of buying a home together. This isn’t Thanksgiving dinner, it’s business.

Hire a lawyer.

All homebuyers should use a lawyer, and that’s especially true for families buying together. Be prepared to spend more on legal services too. Why? There’s more to cover.

The following commitments and promises should be considered when preparing binding legal documents.

Disclose your financial standing.

All potential co-owners should share their credit report (it’s free here ) with the group. You may want wine for this meeting.

If you’re applying for a mortgage together (the Family Plan Program is designed to help with this) you need to know where each person stands to determine how that could impact all family members.

Be prepared to tell your clan how much you have for a downpayment and how much you can pay monthly. Add up everyone’s contribution and use our calculator here to figure out how much family home you can afford.

Imagine the future.

A home should be a long-term commitment, but life happens: job loss or out-of-town promotion, a baby, illness—those are just a few things that impact your life. Discuss what impact they could have on your housing arrangement.

For example, under what circumstances could the property be sold? For instance: What happens if not all co-owners want to sell at the same time?

Consider setting a minimum amount of time that everyone will commit. (Your mortgage term is a good place to start.) Then plan for what could happen after that.

For example, you may want to do some research around what financial options are available to you when one owner wishes to leave – such as buying out that owner’s share. Or, the empty unit could be rented to generate income that would pay back, over time, the owner who wanted to sell.

The solutions will be as unique as your family. Talk it all through first.

Consider upkeep and upgrades.

Decide how to cover emergency expenses, like a roof or HVAC repair, and less urgent improvements, such as exterior painting.

An easy approach is to open a high interest-rate savings account and have everyone contribute to it monthly.

Here’s where things get tricky: Let’s say you want to upgrade bathroom and kitchen fixtures. That will make your personal space extra nice, but it could also improve the building’s energy efficiency and resale value. Will all family members contribute financially to your upgrades?

These may seem like details for later, but small grievances can snowball into big resentments. Tackle them before signing day. And remember, for any transaction of this nature, it is crucial to consult with a mortgage professional before proceeding.

This article was written by Genworth Canada and first appeared on their website here.

If you're considering the purchase of a property with family members, talk with any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts, we'd love to help arrange financing.

Using the Interest on a Second Mortgage as a Tax Write-Off

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 08 Nov 2019 00:55:15 GMT

We all know owning a second rental property is a great way to invest and build your wealth portfolio. Unfortunately, a lot of homeowners sitting on plenty of equity are afraid to use that money for a downpayment to purchase a rental or investment property. The idea of a second or third mortgage tends to spook people away. While there are always financial risks in any investment, there’s a little-known incentive that might make you take the leap from homeowner to real estate mogul.

You can expense the interest on a mortgage as long as the INTENT for the funds are used on an investment property.

Thus, when you’re refinancing or taking equity, you can pull money from your existing owner-occupied home and use the funds on a rental property. Now the interest on the money you pulled out (and only that money, not any existing money) can be written off or expensed against your rental income.

You could expense your rental income down to a negative which in turn lowers your overall taxable income. Putting even more money back into your pocket. It might only lead to a savings of a few hundred dollars a month, but not many people know it’s an option and is an extra incentive to consider.

You’ll definitely want to talk to your accountant and your mortgage broker to get more details.

There are also a few things to consider if you’re going down this route for an investment property.

You must claim your rental income on your tax return. It’s tax evasion if you don’t.

Mortgage rates are also typically cheaper for owner-occupied homes compared to rental or investment homes. Don’t be tempted to tell your broker or lender the house use will be owner occupied when it will actually be a rental because you want the lower rate. That is mortgage fraud. You could get charged and or the lender could call the balance.

While taking on a second or third mortgage might seem a little daunting at, there are some options available to save you money and your mortgage broker can help. Contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts if you would like to talk about all your options!

This article was originally shared as part of the Dominion Lending Centres monthly newsletter, but we liked it, so we shared it here.

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady As Fed Likely to Cut Rates for the Third Time.

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 31 Oct 2019 12:41:12 GMT

Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate Steady Amid Global Uncertainty

It is rare for the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve to announce rate decisions on the same day, but today's announcements highlight the stark differences in policy in the two countries. The Bank this morning announced they would maintain their target for the overnight rate at 1.75% for the eighth straight meeting. The Fed is widely expected to cut its target for the fed funds rate by another 25 basis points, taking it below the key rate in Canada for the first time since 2016. More than 30 central banks have cut interest rates in the past year and the Bank of Canada in today's Policy Statement highlighted the weakening in the global economic outlook since the release of its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In today's MPR, the Bank revised down its forecast for global economic growth this year to below 3.0%, reflecting a downward revision in growth in the United States to 2.3% (from 2.5%), the Euro area (to 1.1% from 1.2%), oil-importing emerging market economies and the rest of the world. China's growth pace remains at a 30-year low of 6.1%.

Trade conflicts and uncertainty are weakening the world economy to its slowest pace since the 2007-09 economic and financial crisis. The slowdown has been most pronounced in business investment and the manufacturing sector and has coincided with a contraction in global trade (Chart 1). Despite the manufacturing slowdown, unemployment rates continue to be near historic lows in many advanced economies, as growth in employment in service sectors has remained resilient.

Growth is projected to strengthen modestly to around 3.25% by 2021, with a pickup in some emerging-market economies (EMEs) more than offsetting slower growth in the United States and China.

Canada has not been immune to these developments. Commodity prices have fallen amid concerns about global demand. Despite this, the Canada-US exchange rate is still near its July level, and the Canadian dollar has strengthened against other currencies.

Growth in Canada is expected to slow in the second half of this year to a rate below its potential. This reflects the uncertainty associated with trade conflicts, the continuing adjustment in the energy sector, and the unwinding of temporary factors that boosted growth in the second quarter. Business investment and exports are likely to contract before expanding again in 2020 and 2021. At the same time, government spending and lower borrowing rates are supporting domestic demand, and activity in the services sector remains robust. Employment is showing continuing strength and wage growth is picking up, although with some variation among regions. Consumer spending has been choppy but will be supported by solid income growth. Meanwhile, housing activity is picking up in most markets. The Bank continues to monitor the evolution of financial vulnerabilities in light of lower mortgage rates and past changes to housing market policies.

Canadian Economy Boosted By Housing

The Canadian economy grew at a moderate pace over the past year, supported by a healthy labour market and the recent turnaround in housing. However, global trade conflicts and related uncertainty dampened business investment and export activities, and investment in the energy sector continued to decline. The impact on growth of both global headwinds and energy transportation constraints is expected to diminish, and the pace of economic expansion should gradually pick up in 2020 and 2021.

In 2020 and 2021, Canada’s economy is anticipated to grow near potential. Consumer spending is projected to increase at a steady pace, and housing activity to continue its ongoing recovery. Overall, investment and exports are anticipated to grow moderately. In the energy sector, investment is forecast to stabilize, and oil exports should improve as pipeline and rail capacity gradually expands.

I n today's MPR, the Bank states that housing resales have been catching up to underlying demand (see chart 7 from the MPR). Housing markets generally reflect regional economic conditions. Housing starts and resales have been particularly robust in Quebec and Ontario, where labour markets have been strong. These provinces will likely continue to be the main drivers of the growth in residential investment. In Alberta, where the oil industry is expected to stabilize, modest improvements in housing are expected. In British Columbia, residential investment has recovered in recent months and should remain near current levels, reflecting the creation of new households.

Bottom Line

The dovish tone of today's policy statement suggests that the Bank of Canada has become more cautious in its holding pattern amid a weakening global economy. The central bank “is mindful that the resilience of Canada’s economy will be increasingly tested as trade conflicts and uncertainty persist,” policymakers led by Governor Stephen Poloz said in the statement. “In considering the appropriate path for monetary policy, the Bank will be monitoring the extent to which the global slowdown spreads beyond manufacturing and investment.”

The statement and the fresh batch of more pessimistic growth forecasts will raise questions about the central bank’s commitment to a neutral stance on rates, particularly in the face of global easing in many other countries that has made the Bank of Canada an outlier. If the Federal Reserve lowers its interest rates later today, as expected, the Bank of Canada would have the highest policy rate in the industrialized world .

It may well be that the Bank of Canada cuts rates early next year. Mitigating this prospect is that the Bank was more bullish on consumption and housing--fueled by the robust labour market. Another source of future growth is additional fiscal stimulus from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's newly elected Liberal government, which has promised to implement new spending and tax cuts next year. For now, the Bank is maintaining a neutral stance.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC's Chief Economist and was published with permission.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 2019

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 30 Oct 2019 14:16:04 GMT

Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ percent

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 percent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ percent.

The outlook for the global economy has weakened further since the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report ( MPR ). Ongoing trade conflicts and uncertainty are restraining business investment, trade, and global growth. A growing number of countries have responded with monetary and other policy measures to support their economies. Still, global growth is expected to slow to around 3 percent this year before edging up over the next two years. Canada has not been immune to these developments. Commodity prices have fallen amid concerns about global demand. Despite this, the Canada-US exchange rate is still near its July level, and the Canadian dollar has strengthened against other currencies.

Growth in Canada is expected to slow in the second half of this year to a rate below its potential. This reflects the uncertainty associated with trade conflicts, continuing adjustment in the energy sector, and the unwinding of temporary factors that boosted growth in the second quarter. Business investment and exports are likely to contract before expanding again in 2020 and 2021. At the same time, government spending and lower borrowing rates are supporting domestic demand, and activity in the services sector remains robust. Employment is showing continuing strength and wage growth is picking up, although with some variation among regions. Consumer spending has been choppy, but will be supported by solid income growth. Meanwhile, housing activity is picking up in most markets. The Bank continues to monitor the evolution of financial vulnerabilities in light of lower mortgage rates and past changes to housing market policies.

The Bank projects real GDP will grow by 1.5 percent this year, 1.7 percent in 2020 and 1.8 percent in 2021. This implies that the current modest output gap will narrow over the projection horizon. Measures of inflation are all around 2 percent. CPI inflation likely will dip temporarily in 2020 as the effect of a previous spike in energy prices fades. Overall, the Bank expects inflation to track close to the 2 percent target over the projection horizon.

All things considered, Governing Council judges it appropriate to maintain the current level of the overnight rate target. Governing Council is mindful that the resilience of Canada’s economy will be increasingly tested as trade conflicts and uncertainty persist. In considering the appropriate path for monetary policy, the Bank will be monitoring the extent to which the global slowdown spreads beyond manufacturing and investment. In this context, it will pay close attention to the sources of resilience in the Canadian economy – notably consumer spending and housing activity – as well as to fiscal policy developments.

Information note:

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 4, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on January 22, 2020.

Click here to read a copy of the Monetary Policy Report

How Much Difference Will Extra Payments Make Towards My Mortgage?

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 22 Oct 2019 17:05:33 GMT

Have you ever wondered how much difference extra payments actually make in paying down your mortgage? Let's take a look and maybe do a little math.

The first (and largest) factor to look at is the amortization, which is the remainder of your mortgage’s life. A majority of mortgages today start with 25-year amortizations. If you have made only regular payments for 5 years on a 25-year mortgage, your remaining amortization will be 20 years. Pretty simple, right?

Someone making an extra payment on a mortgage with 20 years left will save WAY more interest than someone making the same payment on a mortgage with 5 years left. The more years remaining on a mortgage, the more impact your extra payment will make.

The second factor to keep in mind is the mortgage interest rate. Your interest rate will change many times over the life of your mortgage, divided up by mortgage terms. If you agree to a 5-year term, you will only have that interest rate for 5 years, and then it will be time to renew at a different interest rate. At the time of this writing, mortgage rates are exceptionally low (even after some recent increases in 2018), and based on the last rate decision from the Bank of Canada on April 24/2019, they do not appear to be increasing anytime in 2019.

So what does that mean for you? Well, it depends if you are renewing this year, or 3 years from now. If you are renewing this year, you may want to consider your investment options for a lump sum amount, as opposed to paying down your mortgage. Paying down your mortgage makes the most sense when your amortization is high, and interest rates are also high (or going higher). If you’re renewing in three years time, then you may still want to consider paying down your mortgage, especially if you think mortgage rates will be higher at your renewal. The more you can pay when your mortgage is below 4%, the better payoff it will be if rates increase above 5%.

This is all conjecture and guesswork, especially when deciding between paying down your mortgage or investing more. However, mortgage rates have been abnormally low for a while now, and for whatever reason, the government of Canada selected a benchmark rate above 5% to qualify for a mortgage. Where interest rates go is anyone’s best guess, but it’s nice to be ahead of the game on your mortgage than trying to play catch-up with higher interest rates.

So let’s talk dollar amounts. For all of my examples, I’m going to use a $250,000 mortgage at 3.49% with 20 years remaining - that works out to a payment of $1445.40. If you switch to an accelerated bi-weekly, you’ll pay $722.70 every two weeks (half of the monthly amount), but you’ll save over $12,000 over the next 20 years because you will be making a couple of extra payments per year. Those payments really add up.

With the same mortgage (back on the regular monthly payment), let’s say you have $10,000 floating around your accounts, and you decide to use that money to pay down your mortgage. You’ll have saved around $9,500 in interest thanks to that payment. If you did BOTH the accelerated bi-weekly schedule and the $10,000 payment, it combines to over $20,000 of saved interest.

One more calculation with this mortgage - let’s say that, instead of any of the options described here, you decide to increase the monthly payment from $1445.40 to $1600 even. In just the 5 years time, you would save almost $6000 in interest over the life of the entire mortgage. But if mortgage rates stayed the same for the entire life of the mortgage, and you kept up the additional payment of only $154.60/month, you would pay off the mortgage 3.5 years sooner, AND save almost $15,000 in interest.

In summary, paying down your mortgage can feel good, both in your mind and in your wallet. It makes the most sense to pay down your mortgage when both amortization and interest rates are high. It can sometimes be difficult choosing between investing more and paying down your mortgage, but you can think of your mortgage interest rate as a guaranteed return, which is typically better than your GIC options.

If you'd like to discuss your financial situation and and want to review your mortgage to make sure you have the best mortgage available, please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Canadian Housing Market Continues Rebound in September

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 17 Oct 2019 16:02:18 GMT

September Data Confirm That Housing Is in Full Rebound

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales rose for the seventh consecutive month. Activity rose another 0.6% month-over-month in September to 512,000 units (seasonally-adjusted and annualized). This was the highest level in 21 months and 6.6% above the 10-year average shown in the chart below. Existing home sales were 18% above the six-year low posted in February 2019, but they remain 8% below highs reached in 2016 and 2017.

Activity accelerated in slightly more than half of all local markets, led by Greater Vancouver (GVA) and the Fraser Valley, which together constitute the Lower Mainland of British Columbia.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was up 15.5% year-over-year, reflecting the combination of slow sales in September 2018 and a rebound in activity this year. Transactions were up from year-ago levels in all of Canada’s largest urban markets, including the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Hamilton-Burlington, Ottawa and Montreal.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes rose by 0.6% last month compared to 1.1% in August. The small increase in sales combined with the modest decline in new supply tightened the national sales-to-new listings ratio to 61.3% in September. This measure has been increasingly rising above its long-term average of 53.6%. At this point, this measure remains in balanced market territory but is favouring sellers more than buyers.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, three-quarters of all local markets were in balanced market territory in September 2019, including the GTA and Lower Mainland of British Columbia. Of the remainder, the ratio was in sellers market territory in all housing markets except Saskatoon and Southeast Saskatchewan.

There were 4.5 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2019 – the lowest level recorded since December 2017. This measure of market balance has been increasingly retreating below its long-term average of 5.3 months.

This is not to say that things are solid across the board. Small month-over-month (m-o-m) resales declines in Calgary and Edmonton in September are a reminder that the recovery remains tentative in several markets where the economy is soft. Home prices are still down from a year ago in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and it will take a little longer for any recovery in demand to firm up pricing in those areas.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.5% m-o-m in September 2019, marking a fourth consecutive gain for the measure.

Seasonally adjusted MLS® HPI readings in September were up from the previous month in 13 of the 18 markets tracked by the index. (Table 1)

In recent months, home prices have generally been stabilizing in the Lower Mainland and the Prairies, where previously they were falling. Meanwhile, price growth has begun to rebound among markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), rejoining the ongoing price gains in housing markets located further east.

Comparing home prices to year-ago levels yields considerable variations across the country, with mostly declines in western Canada and mostly price gains in eastern Canada.

Home prices in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley remain furthest below year-ago levels (-7.3% and -4.8%, respectively), although declines are becoming smaller. Elsewhere in British Columbia, home prices on Vancouver Island and in the Okanagan Valley logged y-o-y increases (4% and 1.1%, respectively) while they edged slightly higher in Victoria (+0.4% y-o-y).

Prairie markets posted price declines ranging from about 1% to around 4% on a y-o-y basis in September. Over the same period, y-o-y price growth has re-accelerated well ahead of overall consumer price inflation across most of the GGH. Meanwhile, price growth in recent years has continued uninterrupted in Ottawa, Montreal and Moncton.

All benchmark home categories tracked by the index returned to positive y-o-y territory in August 2019 and gains further increased in September. Two-storey single-family home prices were up most, rising 1.7% y-o-y. One-storey single-family home prices rose 1.4% y-o-y, while townhouse/row and apartment units edged up 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively.

Bottom Line

This report is in line with other recent indicators that suggest housing has recovered from a slump earlier, helped by falling mortgage rates. The run of robust housing data gives the Bank of Canada another reason-- along with healthy j ob gains, higher wage rates and stronger than expected output growth in Q2 -- to hold interest rates steady.

As a result of some apparent easing in trade tensions between the US and China, interest rates have risen sharply over the past month. The Government of Canada bond yield is now 1.57% compared to 1.42% a month ago. Mortgage rates have edged up as well. The federal election is a wild card. Promises made during the federal election campaign could heat things further. Proposed measures include an expansion of the first-time homebuyer incentive; an extension of the maximum amortization period for insured mortgages; an easing the mortgage stress test; and, an increase in the homebuyer tax credit. Such measures could ultimately boost demand at a time when supply is tight overall. We’ll be awaiting details and the timing of any housing-related announcements by the next government to gauge the full impact on the market.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC's Chief Economist. We like her a lot.

4 Ways Alternative Lending Beats Traditional Bank Financing

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 16 Oct 2019 00:00:00 GMT

Alternative lending refers to lending practices that fall outside the normal banking channels. These are lenders that think outside the box and offer lending solutions to Canadians who wouldn’t otherwise qualify for traditional bank products.

Although we all like to think that we’re going to qualify for the best mortgages available, this isn’t always the case. Sometimes life just gets in the way! So here are four times that alternative lending beats your typical banking practices.

Damaged Credit

Life happens, businesses and marriages break down, health can be taken for granted and then taken away. Regardless of why credit has been damaged, there are alternative lenders that look at the strength of employment and income, and the downpayment or equity to offer a new mortgage.

Although the rates can be a little higher here, if it’s the choice between buying a property or not, having options is always a good thing and that’s what the alternative lenders will do, offer options.

If you do have damaged credit, the goal is to be working towards establishing better credit and moving back into a typical mortgage as soon as possible. Use an alternative lender to bridge that gap!

Self-Employment

If you run your own business, you most likely have considerable write-offs that make sense for tax planning reasons but don’t do so much for your verifiable income. Traditional lenders want to see verifiable income, alternative lenders can be considerably more understanding and offer very competitive products.

As the rates on alternative lending aren’t that far from A lending, alternative lending has become the home for most serious self-employed Canadians. Yes, you might pay a little more in interest rates, but oftentimes that money is saved through corporate structuring.

Non-traditional income

Welcome to the new frontier of earning an income.

If you make money through non-traditional employment like Airbnb, tips, commissions, uber, or uber eats, alternative lending is more likely to be flexible to your needs. Most traditional lenders want to see a minimum of two years of established income before considering income on a mortgage application. Not always so with alternative lenders (depending on the strength of your overall application).

Expanded Debt-Service Ratios

With the government stress test significantly lessening Canadians ability to borrow, it’s a good point to note that there are lenders in the alternative channel that allow expanded debt-service ratios which can help finance more expensive (and suitable) property for responsible individuals.

Typical A channel lenders are restricted to GDS and TDS ratios of 35/42 or 39/44 (depending on credit). However, alternative lenders, depending on the loan-to-value ratio can be considerably more flexible. The more money you have as a downpayment, the more you’re able to borrow and expand those debt-service guidelines.

So there you have it, 4 ways alternative lending beats out traditional bank financing. If you would like to discuss mortgage financing, please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Another Strong Jobs Report in Canada | Sept 2019

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 11 Oct 2019 16:24:45 GMT

Robust Canadian Jobs Report in September

The Canadian jobs market continued to surprise on the high-side--on track for one of its best years on record. This provides further confirmation to the Bank of Canada that additional easing in monetary policy is not necessary. The economy added 53,700 jobs in September, well above expectation, taking the year-to-date jobs gain to just over 358,000, the most in the first nine months of a year since 2002. The economy added 70,000 full-time jobs in September, with part-time employment down 16,300. Canada has added almost 300,000 new full-time jobs this year.

In September, employment increased in Ontario and Nova Scotia, while it held steady in other provinces.

More people were working in health care and social assistance, as well as in accommodation and food services. At the same time, there were declines in information, culture and recreation, and natural resources.

The number of self-employed workers increased, as did the number of employees in the public sector. The number of private-sector employees was virtually unchanged, although it was up 2.3% year-over-year.

The outsized jobs gain reduced the unemployment rate to 5.5% from 5.7% in August, near its lowest level in the past forty years. One difference in the September report from recent trends is that most of the job gains reflected mostly lower unemployment levels rather than rising labour force participation. The number of unemployed Canadians fell by 46,900 in September, while the labour force increased by just 6,800.

Wage Gains Rose Last Month

Another positive underpinning for the Canadian economy was the sustained rise in household incomes. The total hours worked last month were up 1.3% from a year earlier. Hourly pay rose 4.3% year-over-year in September, accelerating from a 3.7% pace in August. The last few months have posted the sharpest year-over-year increases in wage rates in a decade.

Bottom Line: This report lends ammo to the Bank of Canada to buck the tide of global monetary easing, at least for now. Few economists and investors believe, however, the country will be immune to a slowing global economy. Many expect the Bank of Canada will eventually be forced to cut interest rates. Swaps trading suggests one cut is still priced in over the next year.

The Bank of Canada's next rate decision is October 30. There is so much geopolitical uncertainty in the world, emanating mostly from the US that no one can rule out a BoC rate cut sometime in the next year. The Canadian election results on October 21 will at least eliminate one uncertain issue, but a minority government were it to result, would only add to the uncertain stew.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC's Chief Economist, and we've shared it here with permission.

Is Renewing with the Same Lender a Good Idea?

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 08 Oct 2019 17:14:24 GMT

Your Canadian Mortgage Expert will have the answer!

If you’re in a mortgage that’s coming up for renewal in the coming months and you’re considering just staying with your current lender, you wouldn’t be alone.

According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) Residential Mortgage Industry Report released in the summer, in 2018, the number of mortgage renewals with the same lender increased by 16 per cent over the previous year

The report suggested one of the factors that may have contributed to large increases in loan renewals with the same institution are the tighter approval criteria. In other words, people are worried they may not qualify for a new mortgage if they switch lenders, so they’re staying put.

You’ll remember in the fall of 2017, OSFI, (the Office of Superintendent of Financial Institutions) the agency that regulates the financial industry, announced tighter rules on mortgages. The biggest change related to uninsured mortgages, or homebuyers with 20 per cent or more for a down payment. These people are now required to go through a “stress test” or qualify using a minimum qualifying rate.

The changes came a year after a similar stress test was introduced for insured mortgages.

If the tighter mortgage rules still have you stressed as you face a mortgage renewal, the CMHC report noted the approval rate for same lender renewals remained stable at 99 per cent. Renewals are not specifically subject to the new stress test and are more likely to meet current lender criteria, the reported noted.

So, does that mean you should just automatically renew your mortgage with the same lender when your term is up? Not necessarily. You need to reach out to a mortgage professional to get the best advice.

For starters, most lenders, especially the big banks, will send you a renewal letter when there’s about three months left on the term. Sometimes that letter could come with six months left. Typically, the lender will offer you a rate at that time and all you’ll have to do is sign at the bottom line to roll over your mortgage.

But beware, lenders often offer a higher rate than a new client because they’re hoping the ease of renewal will keep you from seeking out a new lender and lower rate.

In some cases, it may be best to just sign and roll over your mortgage. There are a few things to consider. If you decide to change lenders, you’ll basically have to go through an approval process again. That entails getting all your documents, lawyer’s fees and appraisals.

You’ll have to ask yourself, is it worth the effort to save a few basis points off your rate, or a few hundred dollars over a term to make the switch?

For some it won’t be. But, if a switch can lead to saving thousands of dollars, it would certainly be something to consider. While everyone’s situation is different, the larger the mortgage, the bigger the savings will be if you can find a lower rate.

Often, homeowners will just use a bank their parents recommend for their first mortgage. But they might find themselves not happy with the service or terms of the mortgage and may just want to switch to a different lender as the mortgage comes up for renewal.

If that’s a situation you find yourself in, you have options, and your Canadian Mortgage Expert can help you make the best decision.

This article originally appeared as part of the DLC monthly newsletter.

Half of Canada’s Big Housing Markets Are Unaffordable

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 01 Oct 2019 15:38:47 GMT

A new study of 15 major urban centres across Canada shows that housing un affordability continues to be a major concern in nearly half of those markets.

A median-income earner wouldn’t qualify for a mortgage large enough to fund their home purchase in seven key markets, including the Greater Vancouver and Toronto areas, Victoria, Hamilton-Burlington, Kitchener-Waterloo and London-St. Thomas, according to a newly released report from Zoocasa.

Instead, buyers there would need to supplement the mortgage with a “hefty” down payment, the report notes. In Vancouver, for example, a median-income earner making $72,662 would qualify for a mortgage of $241,994 — about $751,300 less than the average home price.

“That would take a household setting aside 20% of their income annually a total of 52 years to save the required funds,” the report notes. Similarly in Toronto, prospective buyers would need to save for 32 years to amass the required down payment.

Zoocasa’s editor-in-chief, Penelope Graham, told the Huffington Post that taking decades to save for a downpayment is “not realistic for anyone, but it’s a way to illustrate what the (affordability) gap is like. We wanted to highlight the median income―just how different market conditions can be across Canada.”

At the other end of the spectrum, the Prairies are home to many of the most affordable markets, including Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg and Edmonton.

If you are looking to get into the housing market, but have no idea where to start, please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime, we'd love to walk you through the process!

This article was originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends on Sept 29th 2019, written by Steve Huebl.

The 10 Don’ts of Mortgage Closing

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 26 Sep 2019 05:42:02 GMT

Okay, so here we are... we have worked together to secure financing for your mortgage. You are getting a great rate, favourable terms that meet your mortgage goals, the lender is satisfied with all the supporting documents, we are broker complete, and the only thing left to do is wait for the day the lawyers advance the funds for the mortgage. Here is a list of things you should NEVER do in the time between your financing complete date (when everything is setup and looks good) and your closing date (the day the lender actually advances funds).

Never make changes to your financial situation without first consulting me. Changes to your financial situation before your mortgage closes could actually cause your mortgage to be declined.

So without delay, here are the 10 Don'ts of Mortgage Closing... inspired by real life situations.

1. Don't quit your job.

This might sound obvious, but if you quit your job we will have to report this change in employment status to the lender. From there you will be required to support your mortgage application with your new employment details. Even if you have taken on a new job that pays twice as much in the same industry, there still might be a probationary period and the lender might not feel comfortable with proceeding. If you are thinking of making changes to your employment status... contact me first, it might be alright to proceed, but then again it might just be best to wait until your mortgage closes! Let's talk it out.

2. Don't do anything that would reduce your income.

Kinda like point one, don't change your status at your existing employer. Getting a raise is fine, but dropping from Full Time to Part Time status is not a good idea. The reduced income will change your debt services ratios on your application and you might not qualify.

3. Don't apply for new credit.

I realize that you are excited to get your new house, especially if this is your first house, however now is not the time to go shopping on credit or take out new credit cards. So if you find yourself at the Brick, shopping for new furniture and they want you to finance your purchase right now... don't. By applying for new credit and taking out new credit, you can jeopardize your mortgage.

4. Don't get rid of existing credit.

Okay, in the same way that it's not a good idea to take on new credit, it's best not to close any existing credit either. The lender has agreed to lend you the money for a mortgage based on your current financial situation and this includes the strength of your credit profile. Mortgage lenders and insurers have a minimum credit profile required to lend you money, if you close active accounts, you could fall into an unacceptable credit situation.

5. Don't co-sign for a loan or mortgage for someone else.

You may have the best intentions in the world, but if you co-sign for any type of debt for someone else, you are 100% responsible for the full payments incurred on that loan. This extra debt is added to your expenses and may throw your ratios out of line.

6. Don't stop paying your bills.

Although this is still good advice for people purchasing homes, it is more often an issue in a refinance situation. If we are just waiting on the proceeds of a refinance in order to consolidate some of your debts, you must continue making your payments as scheduled. If you choose not to make your payments, it will reflect on your credit bureau and it could impact your ability to get your mortgage. Best advice is to continue making all your payments until the refinance has gone through and your balances have been brought to zero.

7. Don't spend your closing costs.

Typically the lender wants to see you with 1.5% saved up to cover closing costs... this money is used to cover the expense of closing your mortgage, like paying your lawyer for their services. So you might think that because you shouldn't take out new credit to buy furniture, you can use this money instead. Bad idea. If you don't pay the lawyer... you aren't getting your house, and the furniture will have to be delivered curb side. And it's cold in Canada. You get the picture. However just in case you don't, I included it below.

8. Don't change your real estate purchase contract.

Often times when you are purchasing a property there will be things that show up after the fact on an inspection and you might want to make changes to the contract. Although not a huge deal, it can make a difference for financing. So if financing is complete, it is best practice to check with me before you go and make any changes to the purchase contract.

9. Don't list your property for sale.

If we have set up a refinance for your property and your goal is to eventually sell it... wait until the funds have been advanced before listing it. Why would a lender want to lend you money on a mortgage when you are clearly going to sell it right away (even if we arranged a short term).

10. Don't accept unsolicited mortgage advice from unlicensed or unqualified individuals.

Although this point is least likely to impact the approval of your mortgage status, it is frustrating when people who don't have the first clue about your unique situation give you unsolicited advice about what you should do with your mortgage, making you second guess yourself. Now, if you have any questions at all, I am more than happy to discuss them with you. I am a mortgage professional and I help clients finance property everyday, I know the unique in's and out's, do's and don'ts of mortgages. Placing a lot of value on unsolicited mortgage advice from a non-licensed person doesn't make a lot of sense and might lead you to make some of the mistakes as listed in the 9 previous points!

So in summary, the only thing you should do while you are waiting for the advance of your mortgage funds is to continue living your life like you have been living it! Keep going to work and paying your bills on time!

Now... what about after your mortgage has funded? You are now free to do whatever you like! Go ahead... quit your job, go to part time status, apply for new credit to buy a couch and 78" TV, close your credit cards, co-sign for a mortgage, sell your place, or soak in as much unsolicited advice as you want! It's up to you! But just make sure your mortgage has funded first. Also it is good to note, if you do quit your job, make sure you have enough cash on hand to continue making your mortgage payments! The funny thing about mortgages is if you don't make your payments, the lender will take your property and sell it to someone else and you will be left on that curbside couch (as pictured above). Obviously, if you have any questions, we would love to answer them for you, please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Can't Find the Perfect Property In Your Price Range?

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 24 Sep 2019 21:16:16 GMT

You're pre-approved for a mortgage, you've been shopping with location in mind, but unfortunately the perfect property isn't jumping out at you. There is no doubt about it, finding the perfect property (within your price range) is a difficult task, especially for first time home buyers. So, before you go and let buyer's fatigue set in, maybe you should consider adding the cost of renovations into your purchase.

Let me introduce you to the purchase plus improvements program! When purchasing a home, buyers can add the cost of home upgrades into their mortgage. The program is designed to allow for 10% of the purchase price to a maximum of $40K to be added to the mortgage for renovations and updates. A great option if you can't find something move in ready, and aren't afraid to do a little work!

Sounds simple enough, but in all honestly, it's quite the process, there are some pretty strict rules to follow. Firstly, you must provide quotes to the lender ahead of time for the work that you would like to have completed. It is good to note that the renovations will have to increase the value of the property accordingly. Secondly, the lender doesn't give you the money to do the renovations, you have to come up with that yourself. Once the work has been completed, (verified by an appraiser) the lender will reimburse you via your lawyer's trust account.

Obviously this program isn't for everyone, buying a home is a stressful endeavor to begin with, the added stress of having to undertake renovations right away might not be a good idea. But then again, if you have the financial wherewithal to handle the cost of renovations and like the idea of making it yours from the start, then this might be just the option you have been looking for!

If you would like to know more about the purchase plus improvements program, and how this program might work for you, Contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

6 Things all Co-signors should consider

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 16 Sep 2019 15:28:15 GMT

Co-signing on a loan may seem like an easy way to help a loved one (child, family member, friend, etc.) live out their dream of owning a home. In today’s market conditions, a co-signor can offer a solution to overcome the high market prices and stress testing measure. For example, if you have a damaged credit score, not enough income, or another reason that a lender will not approve the mortgage loan, a co-signor addition on the loan can satisfy the lenders needs and lessen the risk associated with the loan. However, as a co-signor there are considerations.

1. If you act as a co-signor or guarantor, you are entrusting your entire credit history to the borrowers. What this mean is that late payments on the loan will not only hurt them, but it will also impact you.

2. Understand your current situations—taxes, legal, and estate. Co-signing is a large obligation that could harm you financially if the primary borrowers cannot pay.

3. Try to understand, upfront, how many years the co-borrower agreement will be in place and know if you can make changes to things mid-term if the borrower becomes able to assume the original mortgage on their own.

4. Consider the implications this will have regarding your personal income taxes. You may have an obligation to pay capital gains taxes and we would highly recommend talking to an accountant prior to signing off.

5. Co-signors should seek independent legal advice to ensure they fully understand their rights, obligations and the implications. A lawyer can lay it out clearly for you as well as help to point out any things you should take note of.

6. Carefully think about the character and stability of the people that you are being asked to co-sign for. Do you trust them? Are you aware of their financial situation to some degree? Are you willing to put yourself at risk potentially to take on this responsibility? Another consideration is to think about your finances down the road and determine how much flexibility will be needed for yourself and your family too! If you have plans of your own that will require a loan, refinancing your home, etc. being a co-signor can have an impact.

Co-signing for a loan is a large responsibility but when it is set-up correctly and all options are considered, it can be an excellent way to help a family member, child, or friend reach their dream of homeownership. If you are considering being a co-signor or wondering if you will require a co-signor on your mortgage, reach out to a mortgage professional. They are always happy to answer any questions and guide you through processes like this.

This article was included in the DLC monthly newsletter and published here with permission.

What You Should Know About the Government’s New FTHB Incentive

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 11 Sep 2019 02:36:29 GMT

Launched on September 2nd 2019, the first time home buyer’s incentive is designed to help qualified first time home buyers reduce their monthly expenses. The goal is to make housing more affordable. The government of Canada has set aside $241M for the program and has estimated it will help 100,000 Canadians over the next 3 years.

Program highlights.

Your mortgage must be default insured, CMHC‌ will provide 5% of the downpayment for an existing home, or 10% downpayment for a new build construction.

Your income must be less than $120,000 per year and you must meet the criteria of being a first time home buyer. The insured mortgage plus incentive cannot be more than four times your household income.

There are no repayments required while you have your mortgage, however, you can pay it back anytime or upon the sale of your property. There will be some risk-sharing with the government.

Consumer Sentiment

According to a recent survey completed titled “Home Buying is Hard Work” by Mortgage Professionals Canada, Canadians are in “moderate agreement” that the new First-Time Home Buyer Incentive will “make it easier for Canadians to afford a home.”

However, among existing homeowners, most say they would not have used the program when they bought their first home, while most respondents also said they would not be willing to give up equity in their home.

Mortgage Professionals Canada Chief Economist Will Dunning expects the program will result in less than 5,000 incremental first-time purchases per year.

The More You Know

If you’re looking to buy your first home, and are considering the first time home buyer’s incentive program, the most important thing you can do is collect all the information and consider all your options.

Unfortunately, understanding mortgages can be difficult. There is a lot of information to consider when simply qualifying for a mortgage, without adding the stress of government programs, and what these programs mean for you, long term.

The good news is that you don’t have to navigate everything alone.

As an independent mortgage professional, my job is to help you qualify for the best mortgage available, using the best programs and incentives available. We’d love to walk you through all your options and explain in detail the ramifications of using a program like the first time home buyers incentive. It might be a fit for you, however, it might not be. Let’s talk!

Please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Canadians Not Deterred By Homeownership Obstacles

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 09 Sep 2019 14:41:49 GMT

Those dreaming of homeownership face a long list of obstacles: high prices, low supply and ever-changing mortgage rules and qualification requirements, to name a few.

But that hasn’t shaken Canadians’ desire to have a place to call their own, according to the latest consumer survey from Mortgage Professionals Canada.

For those who already own a home, 90% are happy with their purchase, while those considering homeownership see positive long-term financial benefits.

An overwhelming 76% of Canadians believe they’d be financially better off as a homeowner vs. just 8% who feel they would be better off renting.

But the findings acknowledge the path to homeownership isn’t always an easy one. Out of a list of six major decisions, homebuying ranks as the second-most stressful (behind moving to another city).

“Buying a home is complicated and challenging and stressful. Yet we still buy homes. We do it because we believe that it will make us better off than if we rent,” says the report’s author, Mortgage Professionals Canada Chief Economist Will Dunning.

“In most situations, owning a home provides a positive (and tax-free) ‘rate of return’ on the owner’s investment of equity, and that rate of return rises over time.”

Paul Taylor , President and CEO of MPC, says the association has learned much about the resilience of the Canadian homebuyer through its past surveys. “We’ve learned that Canadians are generally very prudent and considerate with their financial decisions.”

Here are some of the key findings from Dunning’s latest survey :

Consumer Sentiment

While Canadians agree (6.52 out of 10) with the following statement, “interest rates have meant that a lot of Canadians became homeowners over the past few years who probably should not be homeowners,” the level of agreement has fallen from the long-term average of 6.93.
They also continue to agree that “real estate in Canada is a good long-term investment” (7.16) and that mortgages are “good debt” (6.99).
Concerning the current economic outlook for the next 12 months, the survey found Canadians are mildly optimistic (6.07), slightly above the neutral score of 5.5.

The B-20 stress test

Only half of Canadians are aware of the stress test requirements
- While this isn’t necessarily alarming, given that most people aren’t imminently buying a house and don’t need to be familiar with the rules, Dunning noted, “this limited awareness is also present among people who expect to buy a home during the coming year: there is a risk that some buyers could have unexpected difficulty in obtaining the financing they need.”
Respondents agreed (6.84 out of 10) that the stress tests will “ensure that homebuyers will still be able to afford their homes if interest rates rise by a large amount in the future.”
However, those surveyed also agree (6.62 out of 10) that the stress tests “will result in more people having to turn to more expensive mortgage options from lenders.”

The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive

Canadians are in “moderate agreement” that the new First-Time Home Buyer Incentive (FTHBI), which launched on September 2, will “make it easier for Canadians to afford a home.”
However, among existing homeowners, most say they would not have used the program when they bought their first home.
Most respondents also said they would not be willing to give up equity in their home.
Dunning expects the program will result in less than 5,000 incremental first-time purchases per year.

30-Year Amortizations

The idea of raising the maximum amortization period to 30 years (which was reduced to 25 years in 2012) has a certain degree of support among Canadians.
Respondents agreed (6.71 out of 10) that bringing back 30-year amortizations would “allow homeowners to control their payments in the critical early stages of their mortgage.”
There was also a feeling that it would “result in more Canadians being worse off overall at the end of their mortgage” (6.15 out of 10) and would “result in more Canadians purchasing homes that they can’t afford”(6.72 out of 10).
Compared to the FTHBI, 44% favoured a return to 30-year amortizations vs. 27% who preferred the FTHBI.

This article was written by Steve Huebl from Canadian Mortgage Trends and was originally published on Sept 6th 2019, but we thought we'd share it here on our blog as it contains lots of great information. Need mortgage advice? Don't hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Spectacular Gain in Canadian Employment in August

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 06 Sep 2019 19:32:17 GMT

Canadian job growth rebounds sharply in August following three consecutive months of weakness.

Canadian Jobs Surge Following a Three-Month Slowdown

The Bank of Canada's reticence to signal coming rate cuts has been vindicated by the rebounding jobs report released today for August. Following a strong posting for real GDP growth in the second quarter, Canadian job growth surprised on the upside with a gain of 81,100 in August. The August job gains were one of the best months on record in August, a surprising show of strength by a labour market that has relentlessly powered the country’s expansion. Over the past year, employment increased 471,000--up 2.5%--the most since 2003. Full-time employment rose +306,000 or +2.5% over the past year, while part-time work increased +165,000 or +4.8%. Over the same period, hours worked rose by 1.2%.

Last month's job gains were mostly in part-time work. The unemployment rate remained at 5.7% as discouraged workers returned to the labour market, helping to mitigate the fear of worker shortages. The bulk of the employment increase last month was in Ontario and Quebec, where the jobless rate fell to 4.7% in Quebec and 5.6% in Ontario (see table below). The Quebec economy and housing markets have been on a roll this year.

The number of private-sector employees increased in August, more than offsetting the decline in July.

There were more people employed in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing; educational services; and in professional, scientific and technical services. In contrast, employment declined in business, building and other support services.

The rebound in the housing market in most provinces since the end of the first quarter boosted the finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing sector, bringing the year-over-year (y/y) gain to 3.9%. The increase in August was in Quebec and Ontario. Construction employment increased by 8.4% y/y in Quebec and 4.3% in Ontario. Housing-related jobs in the service sector (finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing) posted y/y gains of 5.5% in Ontario and 2.7% in Quebec.

In direct contrast, the BC housing market's slowdown took its toll. Construction jobs fell y/y by -0.3%, although housing-related service sector jobs rose a still-strong 4.5% y/y.

Wage gains slowed but remained strong. Hourly pay was up 3.7% in August from a year earlier. While that’s down from 4.5% in July, it’s still well above average in recent years. Permanent worker pay slowed to an annual pace of 3.8%.

Bottom Line: Overall, today’s jobs numbers will leave the BoC comfortable with the neutral stance it took this week. Markets seem to agree, with the Canadian dollar strengthening further this morning.

US Jobs Report Disappoints

In contrast, business hiring stumbled in August in the US, likely confirming expectations for a second straight Federal Reserve interest-rate cut when they meet again September 17-18. The jobless rate held steady at 3.7%, and wage growth ticked lower but held above 3%.

Although the unemployment rate held steady at multi-decade lows, the headline employment gain of 130,000 was disappointing. Private payrolls rose 96,000, a three-month low, after a downwardly revised 131,000 advance the prior month, according to a Labor Department report Friday that trailed the median estimate of economists for a 150,000 gain. Total nonfarm payrolls climbed a below-forecast 130,000, which was boosted by 25,000 temporary government workers to prepare for the 2020 Census count.

Fears abound that economic growth in the US is slowing under the weight of escalating international trade tensions and the slowdown in the global economy. Calls may grow for the Fed to cut interest rates this month by a half-point instead of a quarter-point.

The US manufacturing sector is showing clear signs of struggling, and the White House continues to pressure the Fed about the need for even more aggressive interest rate cuts. As well, the payroll figures showed weakness in several sectors. Manufacturing added an anemic 3,000 jobs, and retailers cut positions for a seventh straight month and education and health services hired the fewest people since February.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Sept 4th, 2019

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 04 Sep 2019 16:44:53 GMT

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 percent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ percent.

As the US-China trade conflict has escalated, world trade has contracted and business investment has weakened. This is weighing more heavily on global economic momentum than the Bank had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Meanwhile, growth in the United States has moderated but remains solid, supported by consumer and government spending. Commodity prices have drifted down as concerns about global growth prospects have increased. These concerns, combined with policy responses by some central banks, have pushed bond yields to historic lows and inverted yield curves in a number of economies, including Canada.

In Canada, growth in the second quarter was strong and exceeded the Bank’s July expectation, although some of this strength is expected to be temporary. The rebound was driven by stronger energy production and robust export growth, both recovering from very weak performance in the first quarter. Housing activity has regained strength more quickly than expected as resales and housing starts catch up to underlying demand, supported by lower mortgage rates. This could add to already-high household debt levels, although mortgage underwriting rules should help to contain the buildup of vulnerabilities. Wages have picked up further, boosting labour income, yet consumption spending was unexpectedly soft in the quarter. Business investment contracted sharply after a strong first quarter, amid heightened trade uncertainty. Given this composition of growth, the Bank expects economic activity to slow in the second half of the year.

Inflation is at the 2 percent target. CPI inflation in July was stronger than expected, largely because of temporary factors. These include higher prices for air travel, mobile phones, and some food items, which are offsetting the effects of lower gasoline prices. Measures of core inflation all remain around 2 percent.

In sum, Canada’s economy is operating close to potential and inflation is on target. However, escalating trade conflicts and related uncertainty are taking a toll on the global and Canadian economies. In this context, the current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate. As the Bank works to update its projection in light of incoming data, Governing Council will pay particular attention to global developments and their impact on the outlook for Canadian growth and inflation.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 30, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

How Interest Rates are Like Gas Prices

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 03 Sep 2019 02:28:56 GMT

Have you ever noticed that just like gas prices, interest rates seem to go up and down for no reason at all?

How come it feels like right before you are ready to buy a property, rumours of interest rate changes will start to flood the media? Or why do gas prices always seem to go up right before the long weekend (when you are heading out of town)? You could spend a lifetime trying to figure these things out. However, knowing why these things happen isn't as important as knowing what to do when they happen!

How to Protect Yourself from Rising Interest Rates!

Allow me to share a few things you can do to protect yourself from rising interest rates if you are looking to purchase a property in the near future.

Be Prepared. Know Your Mortgage Options

Unlike most gas stations where gas is gas regardless of where you fill up, not all mortgage products are created equal. Just because a mortgage product has a lower sticker price attached, doesn't mean it's necessarily a better deal. You really have to understand the fine print in order to make the best choice for you.

As your unbiased mortgage professional, I can help you understand all the products available to you and how the fine print will impact the overall cost of the mortgage. I can help you understand the difference between fixed and variable rates, the impact of shorter vs longer terms and amortizations, pre-payment privileges, and potential mortgage penalties.

By understanding your options, you can make a decision that is based on your financial situation and goals rather than based on fluctuating interest rates. Protect yourself emotionally by not placing such a high value on an arbitrary "sticker price" (rate) instead focus on finding the best mortgage product available for you at the time you are purchasing.

Be Prepared. Get a Pre-approval With a Rate Hold

If you are shopping for a property, not only should you be pre-approved for the mortgage, but you should have a rate hold in place as well.

A pre-approval is a lender's written commitment to offer you a mortgage assuming the details in the application are proven accurate. A pre-approval is not a guarantee that you will get the mortgage, just that they have looked at the initial application and believe you are a enough of a qualified applicant to proceed once you have found a property to purchase.

The pre-approval process consists of the following:

A mortgage application - to assess your financial situation (employment, credit and downpayment).
Collection of documents - to support the application.
Submission of the application - for lender review.
A response from the lender - indicating they will consider lending to you based on a set purchase price limit, specific product, and acceptable property.
A rate hold - the time you have to close the mortgage while they will guarantee it at a certain rate.

So as part of the pre-approval, it's really the rate hold that protects you against rising interest rates. A rate hold is a lender's commitment to hold a certain rate on a certain product for a certain time frame. For example, if you like the 5 year fixed term (product), and a lender is offering 2.64% (rate) a rate hold can be secured that will guarantee the rate anywhere from 30-120 days (time frame), this is the time you have to take possession of the property.

Some lenders offer more aggressive rates (lower rates) but limit the hold to a shorter time period, usually 30-60 days. This is why some banks, lenders, or brokers advertise "Rate Specials". However it should be noted that not all rate specials come with a rate hold. Some rates are only available for applications where an offer to purchase has been accepted on a property.

If your rate hold expires, it is easy enough to get another one in place with an updated application. Also, if rates drop while you have a hold in place, and you find a property to purchase, typically we are able to drop the rate for you at closing. It's as easy as that!

Now... if you made it this far and you're looking for advice on how to get the best price at the pump, unfortunately we can't help you out there, that is a mystery to everyone! But if you want to know more about securing a pre-approval and a rate hold, please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Employment Status | How it Impacts Your Mortgage Application

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 29 Aug 2019 04:51:45 GMT

Chances are, if you're applying for a mortgage, you feel confident about the state of your current employment, or your ability to find a similar position if you needed to. However, your actual employment status probably means more to the lender than you might think. You see, to a lender, your employment status is a strong indicator of your employer's commitment to your continued employment.

So, regardless how you feel about your position, it's what can be proven on paper that matters most. Let's walk through some of the common ways employment status can be looked at.

Permanent Employment. This is the gold star, if your employer has made you a permanent employee, it means that your position is as secure as any position can be. When a lender see's permanent status (passed probation), it gives them the confidence that you're valuable to the company and that your income can be relied on.

Probationary Period. If you've only been employed with a company for a short period of time, you're going to have to prove that you've passed any probationary period. Although most probationary periods are typically 3-6 months, they can be longer. The lender will want to make sure that you're not under a probationary period because an employer can terminate your employment without any cause while you're under probation. There isn't a lot of confidence for the lender if you haven't made it through your initial evaluation.

Now, it's not really the length of time with the employer that is being scrutinized here, it's the status of your probation. So if you've only been with a company for 1 month, but you've been working with them as a contractor for a few years, and they're willing to waive the probationary period based on a previous relationship, that should give the lender the confidence they need. You'll just need to get that documented.

Parental Leave. If you're currently on, planning to be on, or just about to be done a parental leave, regardless of the income you're currently collecting, as long as you have an employment letter that outlines your guaranteed return to work position (and date), you can use your return to work income to qualify on your mortgage application. It's not the parental leave that the lender has issues with, it's the ability you have to return to the position you left.

Term Contracts. This is hands down the most ambiguous and misunderstood employment status as it's usually well qualified and educated individuals who are working excellent jobs with no documented proof of future employment. A term contract specifies that you will be paid to do a certain job from a start date to an end date. This is not a lot for a lender to go on when evaluating your long term ability to repay your mortgage. The real conflict here is that although most term contracts get renewed or extended, your employer is not making any guarantees.

So in order to qualify income on a term contract, there are several different ways lenders look at it. The best would be to establish the income on at least a 2 year period This is where the 2 year NOA or T4s come into play, the lender would simply take a 2 year average and use that. However sometimes lenders also like to see that the contract has been renewed at least once before considering it as income towards your mortgage application.

If you've recently changed jobs, or are thinking about making a career change, and qualifying for a mortgage is on the horizon, or if you have any questions at all, please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime. We can work through the details together and make sure you have a plan in place.

What You Can Expect When Locking in a Variable Rate

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 27 Aug 2019 19:09:31 GMT

If you have a variable rate mortgage, and recent economic news has you thinking about locking into a fixed rate, here is what you can expect will happen.

Firstly, your lender will be very happy as they will now make considerably more money off you. Not only will your interest rate increase, but the cost of breaking your mortgage will increase as well.

Now, each lender has a different way of handling this process, but it's very safe to say that regardless of which lender you are with, you will end up paying more money in interest, and potentially way more money if you have to break your mortgage.

Higher Rates

Fixed rates are always higher than variable rates. If you're a variable rate mortgage holder, this is most likely the reason you went variable in the first place. The perception is that fixed rates are somewhat "safe" while variable rates are "uncertain". It is true, as the variable rate is tied to prime, it can increase (or decrease) within your term. However, there are controls in place in Canada to ensure that rates don't take a roller coaster ride. As the Bank of Canada has scheduled rate announcements, 8 times per year, and they rarely move more than 0.25% per move, it's impossible for your variable rate to double overnight.

Increased Penalty

Obviously each lender has a different way of calculating the cost to break a mortgage, with the Big Banks being absolutely the worst, but a general rule of thumb is that breaking a variable rate mortgage will cost roughly 3 months interest or roughly 0.5% of the total mortgage balance, while breaking a 5 year fixed rate mortgage will roughly cost 4% of the total mortgage balance. So on a $500k mortgage balance, the cost to break your variable rate would be roughly $2500, while the cost to break your fixed rate mortgage could be as high as $20,000, eight times more.

Reasons People Break Mortgages

Did you know that 6 out of 10 Canadians will break their current mortgage at an average of 38 months? As we've discussed, locking in your variable rate to a fixed rate will increase the cost of breaking your mortgage. Despite our best intentions, sometimes life happens, and we need flexibility.

So here is a list of potential reasons you might need to break your mortgage.

Sale of your home (you have to move).
Purchase of a new home.
Access equity from your home.
Refinance your home to pay off consumer debt.
Refinance your home to fund a new business.
Because you got married (you combine assets and want to live together in a new home)
Because you got divorced. (you need to split up your assets and access the equity in your home)
Because you (or someone close to you) got sick.
Because you lost your job or because you got a new one.
Because you got relocated for work.
You want to remove someone from the title.
You want to pay off your mortgage before the maturity date.

Essentially, locking your variable rate mortgage into a fixed rate is voluntarily paying more interest to the bank, while giving up some of the flexibility to break your mortgage.

If you would like to discuss your personal financial situation, regardless if you have a mortgage or not, we'd love to talk with you. Please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Mortgage Stress Test Sidelining Young Buyers

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 22 Aug 2019 16:46:06 GMT

New data shows the country’s youngest buyers are being affected most by the government’s mortgage stress tests.

Mortgage originations were down 8.9% overall in Q2, while those among buyers between the ages of 18 and 25 were down 13.4% compared to last year, according to TransUnion’s latest Industry Insights Report .

This marks the fourth consecutive quarter that mortgage originations and balances were down on an annualized basis.

“The new mortgage regulations seem to be having the intended effect in cooling the overheated housing market and broadly preventing consumers from overextending themselves with mortgage debt,” said Matt Fabian, TransUnion’s director of financial services research and consulting in the release.

“However, there are signs of some potentially unintended consequences. We have started to see an uptick in co-borrowing as the means of getting a foothold on the property ladder, where multiple consumers make an application together—in effect combining the power of their salaries,” he added. “Although this is nothing new, it is now often with the help of a parent, other relative or a friend rather than just a partner or a spouse.”

Stress Test Harder on Younger Buyers

The youngest demographic of buyers is most affected by the new mortgage rules due to being at the early stages of their careers and, typically, receiving lower salaries compared to the other cohorts, making it harder to pass the stress tests.

Those with a down payment of 20% or more must qualify at the greater of the contract rate or the Bank of Canada’s benchmark rate (currently 5.19%), while uninsured mortgages are stress-tested at the greater of the benchmark rate or the contract rate plus 200 basis points.

“This limits both their ability to qualify under the mortgage stress test rules, as well as the size of mortgages they can obtain,” the report notes. “In many of the major Canadian housing markets, many younger consumers have now been effectively priced out of buying.”

Debt Levels Increasing

While mortgage debt is trending downward, overall debt held by Canadians rose 4.3% year-over-year to $1.88 trillion.

Again, millennials led the trend with their debt levels jumping 12.3% to $515.9 billion, reaching parity for the first time with the total debt held by Baby Boomers.

“This trend represents a fundamental shift in generational lending, as banks and other institutions continue to adapt and evolve their business models to provide more options and more tailored customer experience for Millennials and Gen Z,” the report noted.

Lenders Tightening Lending Limits

The report also revealed that lenders may be taking a cautious approach to new lending, given a decline in the size of new credit limits in the quarter.

The data shows a 3.6% decline in the average mortgage size (to $276,579) and a 19.7% drop in the average line of credit limit (to $42,004).

However, limits for auto loans and credit cards were higher, up 1.9% and 0.8%, respectively.

This article was written by Steve Huebl from Canadian Mortgage Trends and was originally published on August 21st.

Can you Trust an Online Mortgage Calculator?

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 15 Aug 2019 14:48:53 GMT

You'd think an online calculator is a pretty straight forward device, one that you should be able to place your full confidence in, and for the most part they are. Calculators calculate numbers, the numbers are reliable, but how you interpret those numbers... not so much, especially if the goal is mortgage qualification.

If you rely on the numbers from a "What can I afford" or "Mortgage Qualification" calculator without talking to one of our Canadian Mortgage Experts, you're going to be misinformed. Don't be fooled, while an online mortgage calculator can help you calculate mortgage payments, or help you assess how additional payments would impact your amortization, they will never be able to give you an exact picture of what you can actually afford and how a lender will consider your mortgage application.

While mortgage calculators are objective, mortgage lending isn't. It's 100% subjective. A lender will consider your financial situation, employment, credit history, assets, liabilities, the property you are looking to purchase, and then compare that with whatever risk profile they currently have the appetite to lend to. Simply put, they don't just look at the numbers.

An online calculator is a great tool to help you to run different financial scenarios and to help you assess your comfort level with different payment schedules and mortgage amounts, but please don't rely on an online calculator for mortgage qualification purposes, you will be disappointed.

When the time is right, the very first step in the mortgage qualification process is a mortgage preapproval. A preapproval will take a look at all the variables on your application, assess your financial situation, and provide you with a framework to buy a property, based on your unique circumstance. Securing a preapproval comes at no cost to you and you aren't obligated to buy. It will simply allow you the freedom to move ahead with confidence, knowing exactly where you stand. Something a calculator is unable to do.

If you would like to talk more about your financial situation, please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts.

Canadian Employment Dips in July as Unemployment Rate Rises

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 13 Aug 2019 14:36:48 GMT

Jobs Stall for Second Month In A Row, But Wage Growth Surges

The booming labour market in Canada seems to have vanished, at least for now, as employment declined and the unemployment rate rose again in July. Whether it is the summer doldrums, a trained worker shortage or the beginning of a slower second-half economy is yet to be seen. But the news is troubling in the wake of the accelerating trade tensions between China and the US. The US-Sino trade war has already sideswiped Canada, and President Xi Jinping does not face an election. He is not backing down, despite threats of a 10% additional tariff on all Chinese imports to the US. Trump's response to denounce China as a currency manipulator has no teeth, raising doubts of the White House claim that trade wars are easy to win.

Agriculture and manufacturing in Canada, China, the US and the rest of the world have already been hard hit. Businesses spending on capital equipment and software has slowed dramatically in the face of so much uncertainty. The global economy has slowed, and bond yields around the world have fallen sharply as money is moving to the safe havens of government bonds and gold. Yield curves in Europe and the US are now inverted, which is often a sign of coming recession.

In Canada this week, the 10-year government bond yield fell to 1.22% compared to 1.58% one month ago and 2.33% one year ago. The 5-year bond yield is also at 1.22%, down a whopping 14 basis points in one week. The best 5-year fixed mortgage rate has now dropped to roughly 2.30%, although borrowers still have to qualify at the Bank of Canada posted rate of 5.19%.

Consumer spending has held up, and housing activity is strengthening in Canada and the US. But if the economy slows and job markets weaken further, it is only a matter of time before households tighten their belts.

Canada's labour market lost 24,200 jobs in July according to Statistics Canada, versus expectations for a gain of 15,000. That follows a decline of 2,200 jobs in June. The unemployment rate rose to 5.7%, a second monthly increase after reaching a 40-year low of 5.4% in May. Hours worked on a year-over-year basis slowed sharply, and the number of people employed by private sector companies plunged by the most since the last recession.

One of the few positive signs was accelerating wages, with hourly pay up 4.5% in July from a year ago (see chart below). That's the most robust annual pay rise in a decade. Another area of strength was the construction sector, which recorded a 25,000 gain in employment.

Bottom Line: The disappointing jobs report and the broadening trade tensions will likely spur the notion that a Bank of Canada rate cut is coming. Accelerating wages might delay such a move. But if the global economy continues to slow, the Bank might add its name to the very long list of central bank rate cuts, which now includes the Fed. What has changed from my view just last week that the BoC would be on hold for the rest of the y

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper, and was originally included in her email subscription but we liked the information and thought it would be nice to share with you. We roll like that.

4 Costs to Consider as a First-Time Homebuyer

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 07 Aug 2019 15:56:53 GMT

Oftentimes even the most organized and detail oriented first-time homebuyer can overlook some unexpected costs that come with the purchase of their new home. We are outlining four of the costs that we most commonly see overlooked by homebuyers in hopes that we can better prepare you—and save you from a few surprises!

Closing Costs

Congratulations! Your offer was just accepted on your new home, you’re one step closer to adding a major asset to your portfolio! We don't want to shock or dampen the excitement of this moment. However, it's important that you factor in closing costs right at the beginning of your purchase. The best time to do this is before even applying for your pre-approval or making any offers on a home. Closing costs may include:

• insurance
• taxes (Land Transfer, Property, and others depending on what province you are in)
• legal/notary fees
• inspection/appraisal fees.

A general rule of thumb is to set aside 1.5 per cent of the purchase price to account for the closing costs above. To plan ahead, consider speaking to a mortgage broker and your realtor. They can help you determine just how much you should set aside to accommodate those additional closing costs.

Utility Bills

If you've gotten used to living in a small space, such as a condo or an apartment, you may be surprised how much more water, heat, and energy you consume in a larger space such as a detached home or a townhouse. It's important to prepare for these as you do not want to have a “surprise” when your bill arrives in the mail and it's nearly double what you are used to spending!

Factoring in these bills is also crucial if you are going from renting to owning! Often times the landlord will cover a portion of your utility bills or your cable/internet depending on the contract you had with your landlord. Of course, once you are a homeowner, you are covering the entire cost! Ask family members, friends, even your mortgage broker or realtor what is a realistic cost for things such as cable and internet, water, heat, etc. You’d be surprised how fast they can add up!

Renovations and Updates

Unless you bought a newly built, brand new home, there is undoubtedly going to be future renovations and updates that you will need to do on your home. They may not need to happen right when you move in, but sometimes the unexpected does happen and having money set aside can make a world of difference! When you have your home inspection completed, make a prioritized list of what will need to be fixed/updated first and set aside money each month for it. In addition to the “must do” updates/renovations, new property owners may also want to make aesthetic improvements, whether they mean to reside there or not. Naturally, a homeowner wants to make the place feel more like their own, and investors want to add value their investment or make adjustments to make the asset more aesthetically pleasing.

Ongoing Maintenance

Homes require maintenance—all the time! Ask any homeowner and they will tell you that there is always home maintenance in one form or another happening.
A few common home maintenance costs may include:

• Gutter cleaning
• Roof repair/maintenance
• Drywall repair
• Furnace cleaning
• HVAC and Duct cleaning
• General plumbing and electrical fixes

Every home is different in regards to how much you should budget annually for regular maintenance. It will depend on the age of your home, square footage, climate in your region, and overall condition of your home.

In closing, property ownership shouldn't be dampened by financial rules caused by lack of preparation. All of these costs, as well as additional other costs, are easy to plan ahead for and to ensure that you have budget set aside each and every single month to make sure that you stay on track. As a rule of thumb, the CMHC states that your housing costs including mortgage payment should not exceed 39 per cent of your monthly income. Treat this number as a point of reference when you're doing your budget and consider leaving room for the unexpected. It'll give you peace of mind on the long run and allow you to actually enjoy your new home!

This article was originally included in the August 2019 DLC Newsletter, but it contained some great information, so we included it here for your reading pleasure, you're welcome.

Mortgage Default Rates Are Not A Problem

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 05 Aug 2019 17:16:15 GMT

There is always a lot of talk about the growing debt in the personal finances of everyday Canadians. And to some extent, it may be true. No doubt, many consumers have gotten used to throwing things on a credit card and then moving on to the next big purchase. The federal government was so concerned about personal debt, they enacted a bunch of rules related to qualifying for a mortgage in an effort to cool off the market. The politicians in Ottawa were concerned a sub-prime mortgage fiasco like the one that devastated the U.S. and world economy a decade ago would happen in Canada. You could argue, the intentions of these tougher qualifying rules were noble, but evidence suggests these measures weren’t really warranted. The most recent numbers by the Canadian Bankers Association (CBA) seems to dispel the concerns by the federal government.

According to the CBA, at the end of January 2019, just .25 per cent of mortgages through the major banks were in arrears of three months or more. For more perspective, out of the 4.75 million mortgages in Canada through the banks, 11,742 were in arrears. That’s basically statistically insignificant. And what it also seems to suggest, is that Canadians are actually very responsible when it comes to paying their biggest bill on time.

A closer look at the numbers also appear to blow Ottawa’s case for tough mortgage rules out of the water.

The hottest markets during the last decade were Ontario and B.C. Home prices skyrocketed in cities like Vancouver and Toronto, the average price of a single-family home climbed to more than $1 million.

There was a wide concern that homebuyers were taking on too much mortgage and would end up under water. Again, the CBA’s stats seem to suggest otherwise. Both B.C. and Ontario have the lowest rate of arrears among the provinces. In Ontario, just .10 per cent of mortgages are in arrears, while in B.C., it’s slightly higher at .15 per cent. Just 955 mortgages in B.C. were in arrears at the end of January 2019 out of more than 643,000. The Atlantic province had the highest percentage of mortgages in arrears at .52 per cent.

Obviously any amount of people struggling to keep their home is unfortunate. It would be ideal if not a single homeowner defaulted on their mortgage. With an election this fall, it’s anyone’s guess where the mortgage qualifying rules are going to go. But statistically speaking, the mortgage industry is on very solid ground and Canadians are more than capable of paying their mortgage on time.

This article was originally included in the August 2019 DLC Newsletter, but it contained some great information, so we included it here for your reading pleasure, you're welcome.

Parents to the Rescue for Young Homebuyers

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 29 Jul 2019 17:23:17 GMT

Following a huge run-up in prices over the last several years, housing has become very expensive in many of the country’s key markets.

Just ask the 24% of Canadian parents who say they’ve had to help their children over the age of 18 buy a home.

And when it comes to renting, 35% of parents with children over 18 say they help with rent payments, according to the Housing Affordability Study commissioned by FP Canada.

Expectations are high among parents of those under 18 that they’ll also be on the hook when it comes time for their children to buy their first home. Nearly half (48%) say they intend to help their children with their first home purchase, up from 43% in 2017.

“With house prices at unprecedented levels in many regions of the country, it’s nearly impossible for many young Canadians to get into the market without assistance from their parents,” Kelley Keehn, consumer advocate for FP Canada, said in a statement.

“That’s putting pressure on parents to take drastic steps to help their children buy a home, including tapping into their retirement savings or their own home equity.”

Repercussions for the parents

With more cash flow going to support their children’s shelter costs, a growing number of Canadians are finding that assistance is coming at the expense of their retirement plans.

Nearly 4 in 10 (39%) say helping their children to buy a home will postpone their retirement—up from 27% in 2017.

Another 30% say they’ll have to tap into retirement savings in order to help with their children’s home purchase (up from 21% two years ago), while 26% plan to tap into their home equity (up from 23%).

Illustrating the lengths some parents will go to help their children enter the housing market, 34% admit that assistance will prevent them from paying off their own debt (up from 22%).

“Even though it’s natural to want to help your children, it’s essential to carefully consider the impact on your own financial security before helping with such a huge purchase,” Keehn added.

Other key findings:

Older parents (55+) were more likely to have assisted their children with buying a home (27%) vs. 15% of parents who are younger than 55.
Those in Atlantic Canada (32%), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (32%) were more likely to have helped.
Parents living in urban areas are “significantly” more likely to dip into retirement savings or home equity to assist their children than those living in rural areas.

This article was written by Steve Huebl and was originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends blog on July 26th 2019.

How to Protect your Credit Through a Divorce

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 24 Jul 2019 15:45:28 GMT

No secret here, divorces are challenging, there are a lot of things to think about in a short amount of time. Although finances are often at the forefront of the discussions as it relates to the separation of assets, managing and maintaining personal credit can be swept to the side to deal with later. And unfortunately, this can be devastating as you try to rebuild your life down the road.

So, if you happen to be going through or preparing for a divorce, here are a few things you can do to ensure you make it through with your credit intact.

MANAGE YOUR JOINT DEBT

If you have joint debt, you are both 100% responsible for that debt. Your responsibility for that debt continues even if the debt has been allocated to be paid by your ex-spouse in the divorce settlement. A divorce settlement doesn’t mean anything to the lender.

The problem here is if your ex-spouse falls behind on their payments; if the debt has your name on it, your credit report will be negatively impacted for the next 6 – 7 years.

What you need to do is go through all your joint credit accounts and if possible, cancel them and have the remaining balance transferred into a loan or credit card in the name of whoever will be responsible for the remaining debt. You should not have any joint debts remaining.

It’s also a good idea to check your credit report about 3 – 6 months after making the changes to ensure the changes were made. It’s not uncommon for reporting errors to take place.

MANAGE YOUR BANK ACCOUNTS

Just as you should separate all your joint credit accounts, it’s a good idea to open a checking account in your name and start making all your deposits there as soon as possible. You will want to set up the automatic withdrawals for the expenses and utilities you will be responsible for going forward in your personal account.

At the same time, you will want to close any joint bank accounts you have with your ex-spouse and gain sole access to any assets you have. It’s unfortunate, but even in the most amicable situations, money (or lack thereof) can cause people to make bad decisions, you want to protect yourself by protecting your assets. The last thing you want is for your ex-spouse to drain your bank account.

In addition to opening new accounts, chances are your ex-spouse knows your passwords to online banking and might even know the pin to your bank card. While you’re opening new accounts, take this time to change all your passwords to something completely new, don’t just default to what you’ve always used.

SETUP NEW CREDIT IN YOUR NAME

There might be a chance that you’ve never had credit in your name alone, or that you were a secondary signer on your ex-spouse’s credit card. If this is the case, it would be prudent to set up a small credit card in your name. Don’t worry about the limit, the goal is to just get something in your name alone, down the road things can be changed, and you can work towards establishing a solid credit profile.

If you have any questions about managing your credit through a divorce, please don’t hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts. As mortgage experts, understanding how credit impacts your ability to borrow money in the future is what we work with every day.

Canadian Qualifying Mortgage Rate Lowered to 5.19%

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 19 Jul 2019 15:26:30 GMT

Qualifying Mortgage Rate Falls For First Time Since B-20

The interest rate used by the federally regulated banks in mortgage stress tests has declined for the first time since 2016, making it a bit easier to get a mortgage. This is particularly important for first-time homeowners who have been struggling to pass the B-20 stress test. The benchmark posted 5-year fixed rate has fallen from 5.34% to 5.19%. It’s the first change since May 9, 2018. And it’s the first decrease since Sept. 7, 2016, despite a 106-basis-point nosedive in Canada’s 5-year bond rate since November 8 (see chart below).

The benchmark qualifying mortgage rate is announced each week by the banks and "posted" by the Bank of Canada every Thursday as the "conventional 5-year mortgage rate." The Bank of Canada surveys the six major banks’ posted 5-year fixed rates every Wednesday and uses a mode average of those rates to set the official benchmark. Over the past 18-months, since the revised B-20 stress test was implemented, posted rates have been almost 200 basis points above the rates banks are willing to offer, and the banks expect the borrower to negotiate the interest rate down. Less savvy homebuyers can find themselves paying mortgages rates well above the rates more experienced homebuyers do. Mortgage brokers do not use posted rates, instead offering the best rates from the start.

The benchmark rate (also known as, stress test rate or “mortgage qualifying rate ”) is what federally regulated lenders use to calculate borrowers’ theoretical mortgage payments. A mortgage applicant must then prove they can afford such a payment. In other words, prove that amount doesn’t cause them to exceed the lender’s standard debt-ratio limits.

The rate is purposely inflated to ensure people can afford higher rates in the future.

The impact of the B-20 stress test has been very significant and continues to be felt in all corners of the housing market. As expected, the new mortgage rules distorted sales activity both before and after implementation. According to TD Bank economists in a recent report , "The B-20 has lowered Canadian home sales by about 40k between 2017Q4 and 2018Q4, with disproportionate impacts on the overvalued Toronto and Vancouver markets and first-time homebuyers...All else equal, if the B-20 regulation was removed immediately, home sales and prices could be 8% and 6% higher, respectively, by the end of 2020, compared to current projections."

According to Rate Spy, for a borrower buying a home with 5% down, today’s drop in the stress-test rate means:

Someone making $50,000 a year can afford $2,800 ( 1.3% ) more home
Someone making $100,000 a year can afford $5,900 ( 1.3% ) more home

(Assumes no other debts and a 25-year amortization. Figures are rounded and approximate.)

For a borrower buying a home with 20% down, today’s drop in the stress-test rate means:

Someone making $50,000 a year can afford $4,000 ( 1.4% ) more home
Someone making $100,000 a year can afford $8,300 ( 1.4% ) more home

(Assumes no other debts and a 30-year amortization. Figures are rounded and approximate.)

Bottom Line: Almost no one saw this coming due to the stress test rate's obscure and arcane calculation method (see Note below). This 15 basis point drop in in the qualifying rate will not turn the housing market around in the hardest-hit regions, but it will be an incremental positive psychological boost for buyers. It should also counter, in some small part, what’s been the slowest lending growth in five years .

Note: Here's the scoop on why the qualifying rate fell. According to the Bank of Canada:

“There are currently two modes at equal distance from the simple 6-bank average. Therefore, the Bank would use its assets booked in CAD to determine the mode. We use the latest M4 return data released on OSFI’s website to do so. To obtain the value of assets booked in CAD, simply do the subtraction of total assets in foreign currency from total assets in total currency.”

The BoC explains further:

“Prior to July 15th, we were using April’s asset data to determine the typical rate as that was what was published on OSFI ’s website. On July 15th, OSFI published the asset data for May, and that is what we used yesterday to determine the 5-year mortgage rate. As a result, the rate changed from 5.34% to 5.19%.” Got that?

The Rolling Barrage

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 16 Jul 2019 15:39:15 GMT

From the desk of Carola Singer

Carola Singer, one of our Canadian Mortgage Experts in Calgary Alberta asked that we share this to our network, so here you go!

Hello CME family,

I just wanted to share something amazing I decided to get behind.

My friend Scott Casey, who served with Shawn in the military, is the president of Military Minds Inc. and the founder of the Rolling Barrage. In 2017 he started the Rolling Barrage, a coast-to coast motorcycle rally to raise awareness about PTSD among military veterans, serving members, first responders and law enforcement. so no-one has to suffer in silence and to end the stigma of PTSD. This will be the third year they will dip their tires in the Atlantic Ocean on August 5th and make their way across Canada concluding the ride in Burnaby, BC on August 21st. In the last two years we had about 1000 riders across Canada who took part from 1 day to the full pull.

This has been an amazing journey so far with incredible support. All the funds raised go into a trust account and the Rolling Barrage supports vetted charities such as Rally Point (Nova Scotia), Sheep Dog Lodge (Alberta), Camp My Way (BC), Honor House (BC), etc. Last year they also stopped in Humboldt and all the money raised there stayed in the community.

Everyone involved is a volunteer which is amazing for a big undertaking like this. Every stop will have its own meet ups and we can expect to see first responder escorts and support along the way.

It's been a lot of work and I've met some amazing people and the support and kindness have been overwhelming. This has actually turned into more than I imagined. It's about building community and relationships and making a rumble across Canada bringing people together.

Shawn and I will be joining the ride from Okotoks to Kelowna.

Anyone can join whether it's by joining the ride, standing on the side of the road waiving as we are coming through or joining us at the meet and greets at various locations. You don't have to be military, first responder or law enforcement.

I wanted to share this cause you just never know who would be interested in joining us whether it's for half hour or the full pull, anywhere across the country.

Scott actually lives in BC and has been on national news over the years and was a keynote speaker in Vancouver at the Chamber AGM a couple of months ago. On his "spare" time he works full time at a mine in Merrit. This is a podcast he recently did about the Rolling Barrage: https://phoenixincanada.podbean.com/e/the-rolling-barrage/?fbclid=IwAR2e6CDx4MZ8UvVtPt3213TztmiMfi7eroGDAlNJITGkX_wnqcvE0ftvxWY

If you feel our "little" event worth sharing, I would be very grateful on behalf of the Rolling Barrage.

For any questions go to the website or feel free to contact me (Carola) at 403.479.1115 and I will connect you with the person in your area

Our website: www.therollingbarrage.com

Social Media:

FB: The Rolling Barrage

Instagram: The Rolling Barrage

Bank of Canada holds overnight rate at 1.75%

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 11 Jul 2019 17:59:16 GMT

Bank of Canada Maintains Overnight Rate and Raises 2019 Forecast

The Bank of Canada held the target overnight rate at 1.75% for the sixth consecutive decision and showed little willingness to ease monetary policy, as stronger domestic growth offsets the risk of mounting global trade tensions. There has been ongoing speculation that the Bank of Canada would be pushed into cutting interest rates by the Fed. I do not believe the Bank will let the US dictate monetary policy when the Canadian economy is clearly on the mend. To be sure, trade tensions have slowed the global economic outlook, especially in curbing manufacturing activity, business investment, and lowering commodity prices. But the Bank as already incorporated these effects in previous Monetary Policy Reports (MPR) and today's forecast has made further adjustments in light of weaker sentiment and activity in other major economies.

The Governing Council stated in today's press release that central banks in the US and Europe have signalled their readiness to cut interest rates and further policy stimulus has been implemented in China. Thus, global financial conditions have eased substantially. The Bank now expects global GDP to grow by 3% in 2019 and to strengthen to 3.25% in 2020 and 2021, with the US slowing to a pace near its potential of around 2%. Escalation of trade tensions remains the most significant downside risk to the global and Canadian outlooks.

The Bank of Canada released the July MPR today, showing that following temporary weakness in late 2018 and early 2019, Canada's economy is returning to growth around potential, as they have expected. Growth in the second quarter is stronger than earlier predicted, mostly due to some temporary factors, including the reversal of weather-related slowdowns in the first quarter and a surge in oil production. Consumption has strengthened, supported by a healthy labour market. At the national level, the housing market is stabilizing, although there remain significant adjustments underway in BC. A meaningful decline in longer-term mortgage rates is supporting housing activity. The Bank now expects real GDP growth to average 1.3% in 2019 and about 2% in 2020 and 2021.

Inflation remains at roughly the 2% target, with some upward pressure from higher food and auto prices. Core measures of inflation are also close to 2%. CPI inflation will likely dip this year because of the dynamics of gasoline prices and some other temporary factors. As slack in the economy is absorbed, and these temporary effects wane, inflation is expected to return sustainably to 2% by mid-2020.

Bottom Line: The Canadian economy is returning to potential growth. "As the Governing Council continues to monitor incoming data, it will pay particular attention to developments in the energy sector and the impact of trade conflicts on the prospects for Canadian growth and inflation." With this statement, Governor Poloz puts Canadian rates firmly on hold as Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals openness to a rate cut as uncertainty dims the US outlook.

The Canadian central bank is in no hurry to move interest rates in either direction and has signalled it will remain on hold indefinitely, barring an unexpected exogenous shock.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLCs Chief Economist, it was originally shared on her newsletter.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement July 10th, 2019

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 10 Jul 2019 14:08:34 GMT

Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ percent

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 percent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ percent.

Evidence has been accumulating that ongoing trade tensions are having a material effect on the global economic outlook. The Bank had already incorporated such negative effects in previous Monetary Policy Reports (MPR) and in this forecast has made further adjustments in light of weaker sentiment and activity in major economies. Trade conflicts between the United States and China, in particular, are curbing manufacturing activity and business investment and pushing down commodity prices.

Policy is responding to the slowdown: central banks in the US and Europe have signalled their readiness to provide more accommodative monetary policy and further policy stimulus has been implemented in China. In this context, global financial conditions have eased substantially. The Bank now expects global GDP to grow by 3 percent in 2019 and to strengthen to around 3 ¼ percent in 2020 and 2021, with the US slowing to a pace near its potential. Escalation of trade conflicts remains the biggest downside risk to the global and Canadian outlooks.

Following temporary weakness in late 2018 and early 2019, Canada’s economy is returning to growth around potential, as expected. Growth in the second quarter appears to be stronger than predicted due to some temporary factors, including the reversal of weather-related slowdowns in the first quarter and a surge in oil production. Consumption is being supported by a healthy labour market. At the national level, the housing market is stabilizing, although there are still significant adjustments underway in some regions. A material decline in longer-term mortgage rates is supporting housing activity. Exports rebounded in the second quarter and will grow moderately as foreign demand continues to expand. However, ongoing trade conflicts and competitiveness challenges are dampening the outlook for trade and investment. The Bank projects real GDP growth to average 1.3 percent in 2019 and about 2 percent in 2020 and 2021.

Inflation remains around the 2 percent target, with some recent upward pressure from higher food and automobile prices. Core measures of inflation are also close to 2 percent. CPI inflation will likely dip this year because of the dynamics of gasoline prices and some other temporary factors. As slack in the economy is absorbed and these temporary effects wane, inflation is expected to return sustainably to 2 percent by mid-2020.

Recent data show the Canadian economy is returning to potential growth. However, the outlook is clouded by persistent trade tensions. Taken together, the degree of accommodation being provided by the current policy interest rate remains appropriate. As Governing Council continues to monitor incoming data, it will pay particular attention to developments in the energy sector and the impact of trade conflicts on the prospects for Canadian growth and inflation.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 4, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 30, 2019.

The remaining announcement dates in 2019 are as follows:

September 4th 2019
October 30th 2019*
December 4th 2019

* Monetary Policy Report published

Here is a link to the Monetary Policy Report for July 2019.

A home inspection can give you peace of mind

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 08 Jul 2019 16:40:16 GMT

We’ve all heard the unfortunate stories. Someone with not enough insurance coverage is injured or killed in a tragedy leaving behind a mountain of debt for their loved ones. Often, you don’t want to spend the extra money on insurance, but when something happens it’s the best investment of your life.

The same can be said when you buy a home. It’s easy to get caught up in the moment when you’re looking for your forever home. You see all the glitter, but maybe fail to see not everything is gold. And that’s where a home inspection can come into play. For a roughly $500 investment on the biggest purchase of your life, it should be a no-brainer to have a home inspection, whether the home is 100 years old or brand new.

In many cases, people don’t bother to do a home inspection on a brand new build because they believe there will be no issues. But they me be surprised to learn that even brand new builds can have problems. And certainly with older homes, there are a plethora of issues, ranging from asbestos and electrical to the foundation.

Getting an inspection will not only give you peace of mind when you sign on the dotted line, but it can also give your realtor an opportunity to negotiate any changes that need to be made to the contract.

But like anything these days, you’ll want to find a reputable home inspector who knows what they’re doing and knows what to look for. There are a number of resources to help you find the best

inspector, including the Canadian Association of Home & Property Inspectors (CAHPI).

Even a thorough home inspection may not be able to turn up all the issues with a home. Below is a list of some of the most common latent defects in a home.

1) Bathing Area Issues
Problem: Hidden water damage behind shower/ bathtub surround
Implications: Extra costs will occur, water leaks

2) Pest Infestation
Problem: pest activity in areas of homes
Implications: Damage to home can occur, extra costs can arise, fire/safety hazards, air quality issues

3) Plumbing Pipes
Problem: Polybutylene plastic fittings prone to leaking, insurability issues
Implications: Water damage and or extra costs can occur, high insurance premiums and deductibles

4) Hidden Water Leaks
Problem: Hidden water leaks
Implications: Water damage and extra costs will occur, structural damage, air quality issues

5) Grade Levels
Problem: Landscaping too high on structure of home
Implications: Structural problems, extra costs can and will occur

This article was originally included in the DLC newsletter for July 2019.

5 mortgage tips to help you afford a home

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 04 Jul 2019 15:56:00 GMT

Buying a home is more difficult now than ever—and this is not news to anyone!

No matter where you live, the recent stress testing measures, increase in housing prices in major cities, and continued increase of the cost of living all combine to make home ownership a daunting task. But we do want to offer some help and solutions for young families looking to get into the market as we truly to believe it’s not impossible and have helped many families do just that!

Take a step outside of the downtown core. Typically, property right in the heart of the city r is more expensive due to the location and the continued demand. Stepping out to one of the outlying suburban areas can offer more affordable options and can also lend you with an increased inventory of properties within your price point.
Consider finding a rent to own property. A Rent to Own (RTO) property can allow you to rent a property while subsequently saving up for a down payment.
Talk to a mortgage broker. Speaking with a broker and going through a pre-qualification process can help you by allowing you to see the areas in which you will need to improve to help make you more attractive to lenders. This can include things such as:
a) Increasing your credit score
b) Decreasing your overall debt or consolidating your current debt.
c) Looking at increasing your overall income options and the ways in which you can do that.
Consider using a co-signor(s) for your mortgage to start with. One solution we have found that works well for certain clients is having a co-signor(s) on the mortgage with a planned exit strategy to remove them once the client’s personal income increases or they are able to qualify for the mortgage on your own (ex. By paying down debts and/or improving their credit score). This solution is situation specific, so speak to your broker for more details.
Save, Save, and Save some more. We know this is common sense but speaking with a financial advisor can help show you ways in which you can save and make your money work for you. We can happily recommend a few as can your mortgage broker.

We know that the state of real estate can seem overwhelming and depressing at times. Keep in mind though that not all hope is lost, and you do have options available to you! Remember the “dream” of the white picket fence detached home is not for everyone…now more than ever mutli-family properties such as townhouses and condos are offering more and more amenities and beautiful properties for less. The bottom line is considering all your options and work with a dedicated broker who can help you reach your goals—whatever they might be!

This article was originally included in the DLC newsletter for July 2019.

What happens when a home sale falls through?

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 01 Jul 2019 00:00:00 GMT

Every homebuyer eagerly anticipates closing day. With the home purchase process completed, ownership of the property transfers from the seller to the buyer – you!

Closing date is negotiated as a condition of sale. You’ll typically have several weeks between the date that your agreement to purchase (sales contract) is signed and your closing date.

During that time, you and your real estate team will work to ensure that all the conditions of the sale are met so you can take possession on the agreed-upon date.

But what happens if a home sale falls through and you are unable to close?

Reasons why a home sale could fall through

It’s worth noting that the vast majority of purchase agreements close as expected. But the most common reasons why a sale may fall through are the following:

The homebuyer fails to qualify for a mortgage.
The homebuyer makes an offer to purchase a home based on the condition that they can sell their existing property first – and fails to do so.
The homebuyer’s lender appraises the property at a value significantly lower than the agreed-upon purchase price. If the buyer can’t make up the shortfall from savings or the seller won’t lower the price, the buyer can no longer afford the property.
There are title insurance or home inspection surprises. If a title report shows claims against the property or if a home inspection reveals serious flaws, it will jeopardize the sale.
The homebuyer gets cold feet, changing his or her mind for any reason.

TIP: The best way to reduce the odds of failing to close on a home you want is to get mortgage pre-approval from the mortgage professionals at DLC Canadian Mortgage Experts before you start house hunting.

Avoid making an offer on a potential money pit by scheduling a pre-sale inspection.

Your home sale falls through. Now what?

If you ever experience a sobering “it’s just not gonna happen” moment, contact your REALTOR® immediately.

If appropriate, they will send the seller’s agent a mutual release form, which releases both parties from the purchase agreement. As the buyer, you will endeavor to get your sales deposit back, and the seller is free to sell the home to someone else.

Problems arise if the seller refuses to sign the mutual release form.

Who gets the deposit?

If the seller refuses to sign the mutual release form, your deposit, which is held in a trust account, remains in trust until it is released by court order.

A disgruntled seller may decide to sue for damages that result from the failed purchase agreement. For example, they may end up selling the property to another buyer for less, resulting in a financial loss.

Or let’s say they purchased a home conditional on the sale of their existing home, and because you backed out, they either fail to close on that home or they must take out bridge financing to save the sale. They’ll probably want compensation for the extra costs and hassle.

While failure to close is an uncommon occurrence, it causes headaches for both buyers and sellers. Try avoiding it by getting mortgage pre-approval before you start house hunting, and by booking a pre-sale home inspection.

Most important, hire a real estate team. These experts can use their experience and professionalism to guide you through your sale, managing any bumps along the way.

This article was written by Marc Shendale, Vice President Business Development of Genworth Canada. It was originally published here.

Breaking up with your mortgage can be hard to do

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 27 Jun 2019 00:00:00 GMT

It’s hard to look past what’s right in front of you. That can be said for a lot of things in life, including a mortgage.

So it should come as no surprise that roughly six-in-10 homeowners with the standard five-year fixed rate mortgage break their terms within three years. And as brokers, we’ve heard all of the reasons. Some are good and some are less fortunate. There are those who want to leverage recent large increased in property value for investment terms, or they want to get some equity out of their home to do some renovations. In other cases, it can be life events like divorce, new relationship, the kids going off to college, or just paying down some built up credit card or consumer debt. Some people are lucky enough to be in a position to pay off the mortgage early.

In fact, if you’re reading this and have had a mortgage long enough, one of the things listed above has probably come into your life. But they all come at a cost. So as you sit down to either renew or get a new mortgage, take some time to think about the future. Not five months ahead, but five, seven or even 10 years ahead.

If you’re really not sure what the future that far away is going to look like, you need to consider some options before you sign on the dotted line. It could save you money.

If you’re a fixed-rate person, it’s important to understand how your lender is going to calculate the penalty when you break the mortgage.

Big banks calculate penalties based on the discount they gave you off of their posted rates at the time you first got your mortgage. They take their new posted rate for the amount of time you have left in your mortgage (3-years, 4-years etc.), apply the same Discount they first gave you and then calculate how much interest they would lose as the difference between the two for the rest of the term calculated on your current balance. That is your penalty and it can be quite hefty.

But other lenders like credit unions will use the interest rate differential or three month interest penalty.

What can you do? You could sign on for a fixed-year rate for a shorter term, like three years. That just obviously shortens the length of the mortgage. Or you can also consider a variable rate since the penalties to break the term are much lower.

While it may be tempting to just stick with the big bank, you’ll want to talk to a mortgage broker first. Mortgage brokers have access to all kinds of lenders from credit unions to monolines (a monoline is considered a company specializing in a single type of financial service, like a mortgage) which can arrange better terms if you do need to cut your mortgage early.

This articles was originally published as part of the Dominion Lending Centres newsletter, but we liked it, so we published it on our blog as well. If you’d like personalized advice on how to break your mortgage, any one of our Canadian Mortgage Experts would love to talk with you.

My Home Sweepstakes 2019 | MCAP

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 20 Jun 2019 12:59:40 GMT

If you have a mortgage with MCAP, this is for you!

If you're an MCAP mortgage holder, you're going to want to check this out. Enter each month for your chance at winning some amazing prizes. If you've got a mortgage up for renewal, any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts would love to discuss all your options... including those at MCAP.

Check out https://www.mcapsweepstakes.com/ or read the PDF embedded below.

Any questions, please don't hesitate to contact us anytime! We'd love to hear from you.

Canada's Housing Market Slowly Improves

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 17 Jun 2019 17:50:28 GMT

Housing resales rise for the third consecutive month.

May Shows Signs of Improvement In BC and Alberta

Statistics released late last week by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales increased in May. Together with monthly gains in the previous two months, activity in May reached its highest level since early last year when the new B-20 stress testing was introduced. While last month's home sales stood 8.9% above the six-year low posted in February 2019, this latest uptick has only just returned May's sales level to its 10-year historical average (see chart below). Nationwide, sales were up 1.9% month-over-month, and relative to a year ago, sales rose 6.7% marking the biggest year-over-year gain since the booming summer of 2016.

Sales were up in only half of all local markets, but that list included almost all large markets, led by gains in both the Greater Vancouver (GVA) and Greater Toronto (GTA) areas. There were encouraging bursts of activity in Victoria, Calgary and, to a lesser degree, Edmonton. Resale activity was up 24% from April in Vancouver, Victoria posted a 10% gain, and Calgary resales rose 6.6% month-over-month.

These are early signs that the cyclical bottom has been reached in that region of the country. Market conditions are still soft, though. Property values remain under downward pressure for now with the MLS Home Price Index down from a year ago in May in Vancouver (-8.9%), Calgary (-4.3%) and Edmonton (-3.7%). That said, the rate of decline moderated in Calgary and Edmonton, which is a further sign that these markets are stabilizing.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes edged downward by 1.2% in May. With sales up and new listings down, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 57.4% in May compared to 55.7% in April. Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, almost three-quarters of all local markets were in balanced market territory in May 2019.

There were 5.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of May 2019, down from 5.3 in April and 5.6 months back in February. Like the sales-to-new listings ratio, the number of months of inventory is within close reach its long-term average of 5.3 months.

Housing market balance varies significantly by region. The number of months of inventory has swollen far beyond long-term averages in Prairie provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador, giving homebuyers in those parts of the country ample choice. By contrast, the measure remains well below long-term averages for Ontario and Maritime provinces, resulting in increased competition among buyers for listings and fertile ground for price gains.

Home Prices

MLS® HPI data are now available on a seasonally adjusted basis in addition to the actual (not seasonally adjusted) figures. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI edged down 0.2% in May 2019 compared to April and stood 1.4% below the peak reached in December 2018.

Seasonally adjusted MLS® HPI readings in May were up from the previous month in 12 of the 18 markets tracked by the index; however, home price declines in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia contributed to the monthly decline in the overall index. Markets where prices rose in May from the month before include Victoria (0.5%), Edmonton (0.2%), Saskatoon (0.4%), Ottawa (0.7%), Niagara (0.2%), Oakville (0.8%), Guelph (0.5%), Barrie (3.6%), Montreal (0.5%) and Greater Moncton (0.5%), with gains of 0.1% in the GTA and Regina. By contrast, readings were down from the month before in the GVA (-1.0%), Fraser Valley (-1.1%), the Okanagan Valley (-1.3%), Calgary (-0.1%) and Hamilton (-0.7%), while holding steady on Vancouver Island outside Victoria.

Trends continue to vary widely among the 18 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI. Results remain mixed in British Columbia, with prices down on a y/y basis in the GVA (-8.9%), the Fraser Valley (-5.9%) and the Okanagan Valley (-0.7%). Meanwhile, prices edged up 1% in Victoria and climbed 4.7% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Among Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets tracked by the index, MLS® HPI benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in Guelph (+5.7%), the Niagara Region (+5.4%), Hamilton-Burlington (+3.4%), Oakville-Milton (+3.4%) and the GTA (+3.1%). By contrast, home prices in Barrie and District held below year-ago levels (-6.1%).

Across the Prairies, supply remains historically elevated relative to sales and home prices remain below year-ago levels. Benchmark prices were down by 4.3% in Calgary, 3.6% in Edmonton, 3.9% in Regina and 1.3% in Saskatoon. The home pricing environment will likely remain weak in these cities until demand and supply return to better balance.

Home prices rose 8% y/y in Ottawa (led by a 12.2% increase in townhouse/row unit prices), 6.3% in Greater Montreal (led by a 7.6% increase in condo apartment unit prices), and 2% in Greater Moncton (led by a 15.9% increase in apartment unit prices). (see Table 1 below)

Bottom Line: The Bank of Canada is counting on a rebound in economic activity in the current quarter and believes growth will accelerate further in Q4 and 2020. That should keep the Bank on the sidelines for some time. Currently, the markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July and to continue to do so in 2020. Indeed, President Trump is lobbying hard for rate cuts. It is unlikely that the Bank of Canada will follow the Fed unless the trade war with China worsens. Political pressure is mounting on the administration to reduce trade tensions. Trade uncertainty is the only thing right now that would derail the Canadian recovery.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper and was originally published as part of her newsletter.

5 Ways to Stay Cool Without Air Conditioning

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 13 Jun 2019 14:12:34 GMT

With Summer just around the corner, some timely Homeowner advice!

1. When it’s cooler outside than inside, open your windows instead of using air conditioning. Use a window fan, blowing toward the outside, to pull cool air in through other windows and to push hot air out. When it’s hotter outside than inside, close your windows and draw window coverings against direct sunlight.

2. On hot days, delay heat-producing tasks, such as dishwashing, baking or doing laundry, until the cooler evening or early morning hours.

3. Caulk around window and door frames, use weather stripping on exterior doors, and have a professional seal gaps where air can travel between the attic and your living space.

4. Use energy-efficient lighting in your home. CFL and LED light bulbs operate cooler and cost less to use because most of their energy produces light instead of heat. Incandescent light bulbs, on the other hand, lose 90% of their energy as heat.

5. Leafy shade trees planted on the east and west sides of your home can improve comfort and decrease cooling needs by blocking heat and sunlight. You’ll still have the benefit of heat from the sun in the winter, after the leaves fall. Check with your local garden centre for recommendations.

This article was taken from the June 2019 edition of the DLC Newsletter,

Is Owning a Home Truly the Best Bet?

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 11 Jun 2019 11:27:38 GMT

If you’re reading this and just bought your fist home, or you’ve been a homeowner for years, there’s good news. You can feel confident you made the right decision for your long-term economic wellbeing. That’s according to the findings of a study by Mortgage Professionals Canada, the national association that represents the mortgage industry.

The organization decided to take a deep dive and compare owning versus renting in Canada, and conclude which one option would be the best financial decision in the long run.

As it turns out, the cost of ownership was lower than the cost of renting in more than three quarters of the 266 combinations or cases studied, which included locations and types of dwellings.

As of the second quarter of 2018, the monthly cost of owning was lower than the cost of renting for 72 (just 27% of the 266 cases).

But, the study noted, costs of homeownership include considerable amounts of repayment of mortgage principal. This is a form of saving. When this saving is considered, the “net” or “effective” cost of homeownership is correspondingly reduced.

On a net basis, the cost of ownership is lower than the cost of renting in 202 of the 266 cases (76%), according to the study.

On average across the 266 cases, the monthly cost of owning exceeds the cost of renting an equivalent dwelling by $541 per month. But, when the principal repayment is considered, the net cost of owning is $449 less than the cost of renting.

MPC’s study also found the largest element of the ownership cost (the mortgage payment) is fixed for some time. The result is that the cost of renting will increase more rapidly than the cost of homeownership. The analysis projects the costs of owning and renting for five years and 10 years, assuming that all of the cost components (apart from the mortgage payments) rise by 2.5% per year. The study concluded that homeownership becomes increasingly advantageous over time.

The study concluded by the time the mortgage is fully repaid in 25 years (or less) the cost of owning will be vastly lower than the cost of renting, in every one of the 266 cases. On average across the 266 cases, the cost of owning is projected at $1,549 per month versus $4,655 for renting equivalent dwellings.

This article originally appeared in the DLC Newsletter for June 2019.

Surprisingly Strong Canadian Jobs Report in May

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 07 Jun 2019 16:51:51 GMT

Another Strong Employment Report Signals Rebound In Canadian Economy

It appears that the Bank of Canada's optimism that the Canadian economy's growth will pick up in the third and fourth quarters of this year is well founded. Not only was the employment report very robust for two consecutive months, but the jobless rate has fallen to its lowest level since at least 1976.

Also, Canada's trade deficit, reported today, hit a six-month low in April, as exports continue to rebound from a recent slump. Consumer spending and business investment are also making a big comeback. Household spending has accelerated, despite concerns over bloated debt loads, assisted by easing rates on loans, substantial jobs gains, stabilizing housing markets and improving financial markets.

The Bank of Canada forecasts that growth will accelerate to an annualized 1.3% in the second quarter--following the meagre 0.4% expansion in Q1--and pick up further in the second half of this year, before accelerating back to above 2% growth by 2020. This comeback begs the question--why were markets expecting a rate cut by the bank in December? That expectation may well change after this morning's Statistics Canada releases. Of course, one caveat remains, which is the uncertainty surrounding a trade war with China and Mexico. If the trade situation were to worsen, Canada's economy would undoubtedly be sideswiped.

Canadian employment rose by 27,700 in May, bring the number of jobs created over the past year to a whopping 453,100. The jobless rate plunged to 5.4%, from 5.7% in April, the lowest in data going back to 1976. Economists had been forecasting employment to rise by only 5,000 last month after Canada recorded a record gain of 106,500 in April. The loonie jumped on the news.

The composition of the job gain was particularly heartening, as the rise was all in full-time employment. On the other hand, jobs by those who are self-employed increased by 61,500--the gig economy is alive and well.

The most substantial job gains were in Ontario and BC.

Wage growth continued to be strong in May as pay gains for permanent workers sere steady at 2.6%.

In direct contrast, the US jobs report, also released today, was weaker than expected. US payrolls and wage gains cooled as Trump's trade war weighed on the economy. US employers added the fewest workers in three months, and wage gains eased, suggesting broader economic weakness and boosting expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut as President Donald Trump’s trade policies weigh on growth.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper and included in her regular newsletter.

3 steps to take you from Pre-approval to getting the keys

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 04 Jun 2019 14:16:16 GMT

Picture this: You’ve finally been able to put away enough for a down-payment on your dream home. It’s taken you five years of diligent saving, but you did it! You have also been diligently working on improving your credit score and paying off debts and are at a place of financial stability. So, first of all, KUDOS TO YOU! Second…now what do you do? Here are the three steps that will take you from browsing new homes to getting the keys to your new place.

STEP 1: PRE-APPROVAL

This should actually be the step BEFORE house hunting. Visiting your Canadian Mortgage Expert to get pre-approved is the first step anyone looking to buy a home should do. When you meet with your broker for the first time they will:

Have you fill out an application (or you might be able to fill out one online)
Pull your credit
Determine what your maximum purchase price will be.

Be aware that you will also be asked for additional information when you visit your broker to apply, including a letter of employment/pay stub, down payment verification, two years notice of assessment and/or T4’s, a void cheque, and a number of other potential documents.

Once you are pre-approved it’s house hunting time for you! The benefit of having this done BEFORE you start looking is that you can work with your realtor to find properties within that price range.

When you do find just the right home for you, it’s on to step two.

STEP 2: APPROVAL

If you were able to provide the bulk of the paperwork for your pre-approval, then it will be smooth sailing from here. You may have to supply a few pieces of updated information but otherwise, it’s up to the lender to do the hard work at this point.

Now that you have final sign-off and are waiting for the final conditions to be met, it’s on to step three.

STEP 3: FINAL STEPS

Now that you have final sign-off and are waiting for the final conditions to be met, it’s on to step three.

Your broker will notify you once the conditions have all been met, and the lender will send the paperwork over to the Lawyer’s office. The lawyer will take a few days to go through the mortgage and prepare it for your final sign off. When you go, you will be asked to present:

Void Cheque
Two forms of identification
Balance of the down payment in the form of a bank draft

On the day of funding, the lender will send the funds to the lawyer who sends them to the seller’s lawyer who upon receiving the funds will give you the all clear.

All that’s left is to hand you the keys to your new home!

As one final step, keep asking questions at each stage of the mortgage process. You should check in with your Canadian Mortgage Expert if you have any questions along the way. We will be happy to guide you through the process of not only getting a mortgage but also having a mortgage too!

This article was originally included in the DLC newsletter for June 2019.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement May 29th, 2019

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 29 May 2019 14:23:35 GMT

Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ per cent

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

Recent Canadian economic data are in line with the projections in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with accumulating evidence that the slowdown in late 2018 and early 2019 is being followed by a pickup starting in the second quarter. The oil sector is beginning to recover as production increases and prices remain above recent lows. Meanwhile, housing market indicators point to a more stable national market, albeit with continued weakness in some regions.

Continued strong job growth suggests that businesses see the weakness in the past two quarters as temporary. Recent data support a pickup in both consumer spending and exports in the second quarter, and it appears that overall growth in business investment has firmed. That said, inventories rose sharply in the first quarter, which may dampen production growth in coming months.

The global economy is also evolving largely as expected since April, although the recent escalation of trade conflicts is heightening uncertainty about economic prospects. In addition, trade restrictions introduced by China are having direct effects on Canadian exports. In contrast, the removal of steel and aluminum tariffs and increasing prospects for the ratification of CUSMA will have positive implications for Canadian exports and investment.

Inflation has evolved in line with the Bank’s April projection. The Bank expects CPI inflation to remain around the 2 per cent target in the coming months. Core inflation measures all remain close to 2 per cent.

Overall, recent data have reinforced Governing Council’s view that the slowdown in late 2018 and early 2019 was temporary, although global trade risks have increased. In this context, the degree of accommodation being provided by the current policy interest rate remains appropriate. In taking future policy decisions, Governing Council will remain data dependent and especially attentive to developments in household spending, oil markets and the global trade environment.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 10, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

The remaining announcement dates in 2019 are as follows:

July 10th 2019*
September 4th 2019
October 30th 2019*
December 4th 2019

* Monetary Policy Report published

Thinking of Selling? Call us first!

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 21 May 2019 18:24:21 GMT

If you’ve been thinking about selling your existing property, for whatever reason, it would be in your best interest to give your Canadian Mortgage Expert a call before you list for sale.

Here are a few scenarios that explain why…

BUYING A NEW PROPERTY!

You have to live somewhere! If you plan on buying a new home using the equity from the sale of your existing home, you will most likely require a new mortgage. And just because you have qualified for a mortgage in the past doesn’t guarantee you will qualify for a mortgage in the future. Making sure that your financing is in place before you go and list your house will make sure that you don’t end up homeless!

This advice is good regardless if you are looking to purchase a home of lesser, the same, or greater value. We can also look at the options your existing mortgage has, you might actually be able to port your existing mortgage. Mortgage qualification is a tricky thing, it’s best if you make your plans with an independent mortgage professional.

NOT BUYING A NEW PROPERTY.

Even if you aren’t buying a new property, and you want to sell your existing property, it’s still a good idea to contact a broker first as we can look at the cost of breaking your mortgage together. Unless you have an open mortgage, or a line of credit, there will be a penalty to break your mortgage. We can work together on a plan to minimize your penalty, sometimes it’s just a matter of waiting a few months. But you will never know unless you ask!

MARITAL BREAKDOWN

Marriages break down, it’s not ideal, but it happens. Oftentimes people who are going through a marital breakdown just want closure, and make decisions without really thinking them through. Instead of simply selling the family home, there are special programs that allow the home to be purchased by one of the parties involved as long as a legal separation agreement is in place.

So although you may think that the most logical person to call first when you’re thinking of selling your home might be your Real Estate Agent, it’s actually best if you have a financial plan already in place by the time you give them a call.

So if you’re thinking of selling, please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts, we'd love to walk you through all your options!

Scheer Would Scrap Stress Test on Switches, Consider 30-Year Amortizations

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 15 May 2019 14:56:17 GMT

A Conservative win in the October federal election would mean an end to stress testing mortgage switches, as well as additional measures aimed at improving housing affordability.

Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer made that promise on Friday while speaking to the Canadian Home Builders’ Association (CHBA).

“Housing affordability has become a critical issue across the country, and one that has reached crisis levels in bigger cities like Toronto and Vancouver,” he said . “Government policies and never-ending tax hikes have pushed the dream of homeownership further away by making it harder to qualify for mortgages.”

He noted that the stress test on uninsured mortgages introduced by the Liberal government last year has had “some major unintended consequences” and that his party is “absolutely committed to reviewing it.”

But one thing is certain—a Conservative win would mean the end of stress testing mortgage switches. The stress test currently applies to mortgage renewals if a borrower decides to switch lenders, usually to get a better rate, whereas they don’t face the stress test if they remain with their existing lender.

“That has the consequence of the bank that you’re with kind of having you over the barrel,” Scheer said. “I don’t see the public policy goal that that achieves…that’s something that we’re committed to removing.”

He added that bringing back 30-year amortizations on insured mortgages is also “something we’re absolutely looking at.” The last time 30-year amortizations were available on insured mortgages was in 2012, before they were shortened to 25 years by OSFI.

Scheer criticized the current government’s policy changes as unfairly “choking off” access for first-time buyers who have the ability to pay and meet their monthly obligations.

As a result, he says many have been forced to turn to private equity firms that charge higher rates. “If you’re looking at how the government policy has had an impact on Canadians… it’s making them pay higher interest fees on borrowing because they’ve been moved to one of those private firms.”

Need to Address the Supply Side

The Conservatives’ approach to addressing affordability would not just focus on the demand side of the equation, such as mortgage qualifications and down payments, Scheer said.

“We need to address the supply side as well. That means we need to make it easier for people like you to build more homes,” he told the CHBA. He promised to work with provincial and municipal partners to “address processes, red tape, timelines, and explore ways to facilitate bringing more housing units on the market to bring down costs.”

He cited a C.D. Howe Institute report on barriers to housing that calculated the extra costs on single-detached housing due to excessive regulation now runs in the six-figures. “We need to bring those regulatory burdens down.”

This article was written by Steve Huebl and originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends website on May 13th, 2019. Republished with permission.

Accessing your Home’s Equity to Invest

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 13 May 2019 14:17:47 GMT

To tap into your home’s equity, it all starts with refinancing your home. If you own a home, the equity you have built up in it is one of the most valuable assets you have available to you. It is also much more accessible than taking out a large loan. In many cases, home equity loans and lines of credit can offer you a lower interest rate as compared to other types of loans while providing you with access to credit for investment purposes. You can view an excellent comparison of loans here.

Often times we see clients who refinance in order to:

Renovate their home
Purchase a secondary property for investment purposes
Debt consolidation
Business Development
Assisting their children’s post-secondary education
Financing through a “life event” such as illness

In this particular article, we are going to highlight the value of utilizing your home’s equity to reinvest in other investments such as:

rental properties
stocks
bonds
mutual funds
RRSP’s
RESP’s

The first question that people ask is how much can I borrow? Generally speaking, you can borrow up to 80% of the appraised value of your house. For example, if your home value of $650,000 assuming one qualifies, they can access up to 80% of $650,000 which would be $520,000, if their current mortgage is $450,000 they may be able to get a home equity line of credit for $70,000 (totaling $520,000).

Working with your mortgage broker, you can go through the refinance and approval process if this is something you are interested in accessing. It is always a good idea to consult with your broker and understand the personality of your mortgage—there may be limitations of how much equity you can access and the conditions relating to the refinancing. There are also potential costs associated with this type of refinance including:

appraisal fees
title search
title insurance
legal costs

Keep in mind that these potential costs can be rolled within your new loan amount and will not be “out of pocket.”
Now, if you have been approved and are utilizing your home equity for one of the above investments (after speaking to your financial planner/advisor first) and can expect to see a higher rate of return than the interest you are paying to borrow the money, then it is worth considering. We emphasize that you should always proceed with caution and get advice from sound professionals before choosing to invest your hard-earned money.

We have found that this type of investing works extremely well for many and is a safer and less risky way to access funds for further investment purposes. We recognize that this option may not be suitable or comfortable for some, but it is a viable way to capitalize on the equity sitting in your home and make it work for you! If you have questions or are interested in learning more, please do not hesitate to contact a mortgage professional near you.

This article was originally published as part of the DLC Newsletter. Contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts if you'd like to learn how to use your home equity to invest. 

Poloz Weighs In On Mortgages

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 09 May 2019 19:27:40 GMT

Governor Poloz's proposed innovations for Canada's mortgage market are less than meets the eye.

Poloz Says Mortgage Market Should Offer More Options

In a speech early this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said that it is time for some fresh ideas for Canada's mortgage market. He suggested that changes could include encouraging longer than 5-year duration fixed-rate mortgage loans, the creation of a market for private mortgage-backed securities and the launch of shared-equity mortgages for first-time homebuyers proposed in the March federal budget.

Taking these in turn, only two percent of all fixed-rate loans issued in 2018 had durations longer than five years. For borrowers, this would mean less interest-rate risk if they dealt with fewer renewals; however, this is not the full story.

Firstly, 65% of all 5-year mortgage holders break their mortgage by around month 33. Also, some banks and many mortgage brokers offer fixed-rate loans with durations of 7, 8, or even 10 years. However, the borrower pays dearly for this insurance against rising rates. Since the introduction of mortgage stress tests, many borrowers have trouble qualifying for loans as it is. Most want lower, rather than higher, monthly payments and demand for longer-duration mortgages is so low because they cost a full 100 basis points or more above existing 5-year mortgage loans. Besides, interest rates have been low and even falling over most of the period since 1982. Fear of significant rate spikes has diminished dramatically.

Poloz agrees there is some momentum in Canada towards the creation of a private market for mortgage-backed securities. He said it would provide a more flexible source of long-term funds for mortgages not insured by CMHC. To the extent that enhanced sources of capital would reduce the cost of funding for lenders, it might reduce the rate spread between 5-year and longer-duration mortgages, making them more attractive. But, again, perceived rate risk and the actual less than 5-year duration of most mortgages begs the question of why Poloz is providing an answer to a question no one is asking.

Indeed, data show that Millennials in Canada are buying homes in Canada's most expensive cities. Royal Bank economists found that "apart from a short-lived slowdown in 2015 resulting from changes in the temporary foreign worker program, the population aged 20-to-34 in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal has grown solidly over the last dozen years. ...The inflow of millennial immigrants is poised to grow in the coming years. Canada will increase its annual immigration target from 330,000 in 2019 to 350,000 in 2021, and our largest cities will likely get the lion’s share of newcomers. In recent years, Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal together welcomed approximately half of all new immigrants aged 20-34."

Finally, the shared-equity mortgage for first-time homebuyers may well prove to be unpopular. A similar program was offered in British Columbia a few years ago, and there were very few takers.

The BC Home Owner Mortgage and Equity Partnership program, introduced in late 2016, was cancelled effective March 31, 2018, due to lack of interest. The province anticipated that the program would provide 42,000 loans over three years. However, as of January 31, 2018, there were fewer than 3,000 loans approved.

The new federal program will provide a larger downpayment for first-time buyers, but it only applies to homes priced just over $500,000 or less, which might help in some parts of the country, but in higher-cost regions homes that cheap are slim pickings.

Canadians don't want to share the equity gains in their homes, as most first-time buyers don't imagine that their home equity could decline. Governor Poloz, himself, forecast in the same speech that he's confident Canada's housing market will return to growth later this year. Population and job growth has been rapid pointing to the resumption of growth in depressed housing markets later this year.

Poloz is a champion of the B-20 guidelines, saying they have done what they were intended to do --remove the froth from bubbly housing markets. During the press conference following his speech, reporters asked if the governor would support a reduction in the roughly 200 basis point spread between the qualifying rate and the contract rate to which he responded in essence-- a resounding, No.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper; DLC's chief economist, and was originally published as part of her regular client newsletter on May 8th 2019.

Get to Know Your Lender

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 07 May 2019 15:33:40 GMT

One of the biggest aspects of a mortgage is figuring out the best lender. Since every file is unique, a good mortgage broker will likely tell you there’s no “best” lender. Instead, it will be those unique qualities in your mortgage that will determine which lender you’re going to use.

In a typical mortgage, there are three potential types of lenders: the big banks, credit unions and monolines.

A Bank

A bank is a financial institution that accepts deposits, lends money and transfers funds. They are listed as public, licensed corporations and have declared earnings that are paid to stockholders. A key point: they are regulated by the federal government-Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Everyone knows the big banks and they are considered to be trusted. If you decide to use a fixed-rate mortgage from a big bank, keep in mind the penalty to break the mortgage will be larger than other lenders. The big banks are best for a variable rate, since the penalty will be smaller.

Credit Unions

Credit unions also deposit, lend and transfer funds. However, after that, we run into some differences between the two. Credit Unions have an elected Board of Directors that consist of elected members from their community. They are local and community-based organizations and unlike the banks, they are not federally but provincially regulated. The advantage to a credit union is they are not subject to the recent stress test rules announced for uninsured mortgages, so they can still service debt under the older rules. The credit unions calculation for penalties are typically friendlier to the borrower and if there are credit issues, they tend to be more understanding than the big banks.

Monolines

Monolines specialize in a single type of financial service, such as consumer credit, home mortgages, or a sole class of insurance. While monolines are often used by mortgage brokers because they are broker friendly, there are some advantages to the consumer. Monolines usually offer better discounted rates, while how they calculate the penalties can be friendly to the client. The biggest knock is they’re just not as well-known or trusted like a bank. It should be noted the major investors in monolines are the big banks, so there’s nothing really to fear.

Now that you know a little about the lenders, you need to know how a mortgage broker can help. A typical broker will have access to up to 90 lenders. That can be a real advantage, because if your mortgage isn’t fitting into the right box, a great broker will turn over every stone and work with the lenders to find a solution. And since a broker has a number of different lenders to choose from, they’ll understand each of the lender’s guidelines to get you the right mortgage.

This article was originally published as part of the DLC Newsletter for May 2019. If you have any questions about which lender might be the best fit for your next mortgage, please don't hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts.

More Research on Stress Test Impacts

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 03 May 2019 00:00:00 GMT

The stress test continues to be the focus of much research, with new data released recently on the full extent of its impacts on the housing market.

We’ve summarized the latest findings, which look at the stress test’s impacts on home sales and prices over the past year, as well as the current state of consumer awareness.

TD Says 40,000 Buyers Sidelined by B-20

New research from TD Economics estimates that the B-20 regulation (stress test) resulted in 40,000 fewer home sales over the course of 2018, with “disproportionate impacts on the overvalued Toronto and Vancouver markets and on first-time homebuyers.”

The report’s authors note it also impacted the supply side of the equation, with fewer existing homes on the market and fewer new units in the pipeline, which has put more strain on “already-tight” rental supply as would-be buyers were forced to continue renting.

“For the most part, the B-20 rules have contributed to bringing down housing activity to a more sustainable level,” reads the report. “However, developments should be closely monitored. There is certainly scope to tweak the guidelines if circumstances change and/or housing markets undershoot expectations.”

It adds that if B-20 was removed immediately, it would result in home sales rising 15% by 2020 (seven percentage points above current projections), and prices rising 10% (six percentage points above current projections).

Mortgage Professionals Canada CEO Paul Taylor said he agrees with the conclusion that prices would rise with the complete removal of the stress test, but noted that’s not what the association is advocating for. Rather, it’s proposing an easing of the stress test to 75 bps (from 200 bps) to help those who are having difficulty entering the housing market. “We’re not trying to add fuel to a fire, we just want to stop pouring quite so much water on it,” he told the Globe and Mail .

Bank of Canada Weighs in on Stress Test Impacts

The Bank of Canada recently released its own research into the effects of the stress test, finding that the new rules were responsible only for a small part of the decline in home sales.

Instead, the BoC says the bulk of the drop was caused by “deteriorating affordability” and a “dissipation of previous froth” in key markets in Ontario and B.C.

“The direct impact of recent mortgage rule changes, in contrast, is estimated to be relatively small,” the report reads.

“Of course, the housing market is currently in uncharted territory,” the report adds. “Several policy measures are working their way through the system within the context of record household indebtedness and elevated housing imbalances.”

Majority of Canadians Don’t Understand the Stress Test

Despite the stress test having been in effect for nearly a year and a half, many Canadians admit to not understanding the new rules and how they affect their finances.

A new survey from TD Bank found 43% of Canadians aren’t confident in their knowledge on the stress test, while a majority, 59%, said they don’t understand how the rules affect them.

This reinforces the value mortgage brokers can bring to the table when it comes to helping borrowers navigate the new regulatory environment.

Other findings from the survey include:

81% of respondents don’t understand how a potential rise in mortgage rates will affect them financially
31% are not confident in their understanding of mortgage prepayment rules
28% do not understand the difference between a pre-approval and pre-qualification

Stress Test Blamed for 24-Year Low in Vancouver Home Sales

Home sales in Vancouver continued to fall in April, reaching a 24-year low, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

Overall sales were down 29.1% from a year ago, while prices are down 8.5%. The benchmark price for all property types has now fallen for 11 consecutive months, to $1,008,400.

Ashley Smith, REBGV president, said the downward trend is being driven by reduced demand rather than increased supply.

“The federal government’s mortgage stress test has reduced buyers’ purchasing power by about 20%, which is causing people at the entry-level side of the market to struggle to secure financing,” she said. “Suppressing housing activity through government policy not only reduces home sales, it harms the job market, economic growth and creates pent-up demand.”

This article was written by Steve Huebl from Canadian Mortgage Trends and was originally published on May 3rd 2019.

Millennials Moving to the ‘Burbs to Find Their Dream Home

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 29 Apr 2019 10:56:31 GMT

It used to be that most city-dwelling millennials wouldn’t consider moving to the suburbs, at least not until the later stages of life.

But a growing number of millennial first-time homebuyers (those aged 25-34) are now making the move in order to find — and be able to afford — their perfect home, according to TD’s Spring Homebuying Survey.

Of the 8 in 10 millennials who aspire to own their own home, the survey found that two-thirds are willing to forego the conveniences of city living in exchange for a home that meets their needs.

“We’re now seeing millennials looking beyond the city for their housing needs, particularly as they start thinking about their needs for the future, like having more space to raise a family,” Pat Giles, Vice President, Real Estate Secured Lending at TD, said in a release. “As a result, many are choosing the suburbs to either make the move to a new home or upsize from their current one, a shift from just a few years ago when city living was this generation’s preference.”

Four years ago, the same survey found that 38% of millennials preferred to live in the city vs. 33% today.

The number one driver of this shifting trend is affordability, with 64% of respondents citing high home prices as the reason for house hunting beyond the city limits. Other factors include increased outdoor space (63%) and larger living areas (62%).

While buying a home in the suburbs may offer improved affordability, it does come with its own costs, both in terms of access to amenities and increased commute times. But most millennial buyers say they’re ok with that and willing to make the sacrifice.

More than half (58%) said they are willing to eat out less, while 56% would cut down on shopping and 50% would reduce their entertainment spend.

Extended commutes are less appealing, however. Only 27% said they would be willing to spend more time travelling to and from work, with 45% saying the ability to live close to work is a key purchasing factor.

Similar Trend in the U.S.

This latest data comes on the heels of a Wall Street Journal piece that explored a similar trend taking place across the U.S.

“Rising mortgage rates and home prices, especially in urban centers, are once again motivating buyers to drive until they can afford a home,” reporter Laura Kusisto wrote.

The research found millennial homebuyers are most likely to seek homes in the the suburbs or beyond (an area referred to as the “exurbs”). On average, these homes are located more than 25 kilometres from central business districts.

In recent years millennials have been largely responsible for driving demand of rental apartments in downtown areas, a trend many thought would continue.

“And yet, as they begin to marry and have children, millennials are proving like generations before them that they are willing to move to more affordable outlying areas,” Kusisto wrote.

This article was written by Steve Huebl and was originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends website , but as we like arranging financing for millennial clients, we decided it was worth a share here (with permission).

If you need a mortgage, don't hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement April 24th, 2019

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 24 Apr 2019 14:06:34 GMT

No changes to the overnight rate this announcement period.

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

Global economic growth has slowed by more than the Bank forecast in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Ongoing uncertainty related to trade conflicts has undermined business sentiment and activity, contributing to a synchronous slowdown across many countries. In response, many central banks have signalled a slower pace of monetary policy normalization. Financial conditions and market sentiment have improved as a result, pushing up prices for oil and other commodities.

Global economic activity is expected to pick up during 2019 and average 3 ¼ per cent over the projection period, supported by accommodative financial conditions and as a number of temporary factors weighing on growth fade. This is roughly in line with the global economy’s potential and a modest downgrade to the Bank’s January projection.

In Canada, growth during the first half of 2019 is now expected to be slower than was anticipated in January. Last year’s oil price decline and ongoing transportation constraints have curbed investment and exports in the energy sector. Investment and exports outside the energy sector, meanwhile, have been negatively affected by trade policy uncertainty and the global slowdown. Weaker-than-anticipated housing and consumption also contributed to slower growth.

The Bank expects growth to pick up, starting in the second quarter of this year. Housing activity is expected to stabilize given continued population gains, the fading effects of past housing policy changes, and improved global financial conditions. Consumption will be underpinned by strong growth in employment income. Outside of the oil and gas sector, investment will be supported by high rates of capacity utilization and exports will expand with strengthening global demand. Meanwhile, the contribution to growth from government spending has been revised down in light of Ontario’s new budget.

Overall, the Bank projects real GDP growth of 1.2 per cent in 2019 and around 2 per cent in 2020 and 2021. This forecast implies a modest widening of the output gap, which will be absorbed over the projection period.

CPI and measures of core inflation are all close to 2 per cent. CPI inflation will likely dip in the third quarter, largely because of the dynamics of gasoline prices, before returning to about 2 per cent by year end. Taking into account the effects of the new carbon pollution charge, as well as modest excess capacity, the Bank expects inflation to remain around 2 per cent through 2020 and 2021.

Given all of these developments, Governing Council judges that an accommodative policy interest rate continues to be warranted. We will continue to evaluate the appropriate degree of monetary policy accommodation as new data arrive. In particular, we are monitoring developments in household spending, oil markets, and global trade policy to gauge the extent to which the factors weighing on growth and the inflation outlook are dissipating.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is May 29, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on July 10, 2019.

To view the Monetary Policy Report, follow this link.

The remaining announcement dates in 2019 are as follows:

May 29th 2019
July 10th 2019*
September 4th 2019
October 30th 2019*
December 4th 2019

* Monetary Policy Report published

Top 20 Small Market Brokers 2019

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 23 Apr 2019 11:37:06 GMT

Congratulations to Christine Buemann for being recognized as a top broker in Canada.

Each year the Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine collects data on mortgage brokers across the country and features the brokers who did the most mortgage volume compiled in a list of the top 75 Brokers. They also compile a list of the Top 20 brokers who have impressive mortgage volume in markets where the MLS-identified average home price is less than $365k.

We're so proud of Christine Buemann for making this Top 20 Small Market Broker list with $43M in annual mortgage volume, 146 mortgages written, in Prince George, BC. Congrats Christine, you make us all proud!

If you'd like to check out the article online - go to the Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine here. Page 42.

Top 75 Brokers in Canada 2019

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 18 Apr 2019 13:59:55 GMT

Canadian Mortgage Experts among top brokers in Canada.

Each year the Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine collects data on mortgage brokers across the country and features the brokers who did the most mortgage volume compiled in a list of the top 75 Brokers.

We're proud to have several of our Canadian Mortgage Experts be featured in this list. Huge congratulations are in order to the following individuals:

Christian Amurao - placing 66th with 154 mortgages, for $63.45M in funded volume.

Chad Oyhenart - placing 56th with 142 mortgages, for $67M in funded volume.

Alex McFadyen - placing 36th with 199 mortgages, for $84.53M in funded volume.

We couldn't be happier to have these brokers as part of our team at Canadian Mortgage Experts.

If you'd like to check out the article online - go to the Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine here. Page 20.

Moving up or down the property ladder

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 15 Apr 2019 16:41:01 GMT

At some point, the place that we thought would be our forever home for one reason or another just isn’t working. That’s the time to consider moving up in size or potentially downsizing depending on where you are in life.

If you’re feeling squeezed or have a little one on the way, your current digs may not be enough. If you want to upsize during your mortgage cycle, keep in mind you’ll be breaking your mortgage and will have to go through the entire qualification process again.

That means you will need to re-qualify at the current rates offered by lenders and be subject to government changes and recent “stress test” rules. You’ll also be breaking your mortgage which will come with a variety of penalties depending on the terms in your mortgage and the lender. You may be able to port the mortgage, essentially taking the existing mortgage and its terms and transferring it to another property, but not all mortgages are portable. You’ll need to talk to a mortgage broker to find out if this is an option for you.

Moving on UP

If you’re trying to move from a condo or apartment to a single-family home, it’s all about the pros and cons. First, you have to decide if you can afford to make the move and buy something bigger. A larger purchase price comes with larger closing costs. Depending on the province in which you reside, you’re Property Transfer Tax will be larger and you’ll be paying realtor fees on the sale of the home you’re leaving. Canadians typically pay between 2.5 and five per cent their home’s selling price in realtor fees.

Don’t forget the costs of owning a single family home. Unlike a strata, you are responsible for all the maintenance of your home. One rule of thumb is to consider saving one per cent of the purchase price of your home each year for maintenance.

If your home cost $500,000, that would mean $5,000 a year in savings. The good news is you won’t have to pay a monthly strata fee and you won’t be kept up at night worrying about a special assessment for major repairs on the building.

Scaling it DOWN

There comes a time when owning a home becomes a little too much to handle. The cleaning, the yardwork and the maintenance can be a pain. And why keep extra bedrooms when they’re just collecting dust? It may be time to downsize. If you’re mortgage free, depending on where you live, you could actually be sitting on a gold mine. While you may be in for a windfall, there are costs to selling your existing home for something smaller and cheaper.

Realtor commission (between 2.5 and five per cent depending on where you live in the country and what you are able to negotiate). In Toronto for example, the standard realtor rate is 5%. So for a $1,000,000 home, you would need to pay the realtor $50,000.
Closing costs and legal fees - approximately 1.5 per cent of the purchase price
Miscellaneous costs - $1,000-plus (moving expenses, upgrading appliances and buying new furniture)

You also need to consider strata or condo fees and the potential for special assessments on the building and all the standard costs that come with buying a place, even if there’s no mortgage.

Another more recent option to the real estate landscape is reverse mortgage. A reverse mortgage is a loan secured against the value of your home. It is exclusively for homeowners aged 55 years and older. It enables the homeowners to convert up to 55% of the home's value into tax-free cash. With a reverse mortgage, you maintain ownership of your home. You only have to repay the loan once you chose to move or sell.

This article was written for the DLC Newsletter in April of 2019, if you need any mortgage advice, any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts would love to talk with you, contact us anytime!

Update on CMHC’s First-Time Home Buyers Incentive

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 08 Apr 2019 14:57:22 GMT

Details have been few and far between on the government’s new First-Time Home Buyers Incentive (FTHBI) since it was announced in last month’s budget. But CMHC has finally provided a little more clarification.

In a statement released on its website, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CHMC), which will administer the FTHBI, acknowledged that, “we still have work to do. While we can’t yet share all program specifics, we can nonetheless elaborate on the program’s intent and some of the rationale behind its design.”

CMHC noted that some of that work will involve consultations with lenders and other industry stakeholders “to make sure the program works as intended.”

The program will see the CMHC provide 5% of a first-time buyer’s down payment for the purchase of existing homes, or 10% for the purchase of a new build. The mortgage must be default-insured.

Among the criticism levelled against the FTHBI is that the maximum purchase price permitted under the program — now confirmed at $505,000 — won’t do much to assist first-time buyers in the country’s largest markets — Vancouver and Toronto — where prices are significantly higher.

“Despite the income and borrowing limits, we are confident this program can work in all markets, including Vancouver and Toronto,” CMHC countered in its statement. “The average insured home in Canada is worth $284,000, less than the national average house price of $470,000 and this program applies up to a house price of $505,000, assuming a 5% down payment. However, we shouldn’t confuse market average prices ($1 million in Vancouver and $770,000 in Toronto) with starter home prices.”

The agency noted that 23% of transactions in the Toronto area are for under $500,000, and that 10% of Vancouver purchases are under that threshold.

CMHC also said it’s difficult to estimate what the uptake for the program will be like once it’s rolled out in September, but that “based on last year’s activity…more than 2,000 homebuyers in Toronto would have been eligible for the FTHBI and over 1,000 in Greater Vancouver.”

While many details are yet to be worked out over the coming months, CMHC summarized some of the intents and benefits of the program:

A way to assist first-time homebuyers without adding to their financial burden.
No monthly payments.
The program will require borrowers to meet minimum insured mortgage down payment requirements, “ensuring they are invested in their purchase.”
While aimed at first-time buyers, the program will result in freed up rental supply and will thus ease pressure on rents, CMHC says.
The cost of the program is capped at $1.25 billion over three years. It is also limited to a maximum combined income of $120,000 and total borrowing limited to four times income.

The agency also argued that the FTHBI is more desirable from a housing affordability perspective compared to some of the other policy changes many had been calling for, including tweaks to the mortgage stress test.

CMHC said it doesn’t expect the FTHBI’s inflation effect to be beyond a maximum of 0.2-0.4%.

“Limiting house price inflation will keep housing more affordable, more so than some of the other suggested policy and regulatory changes,” CMHC’s statement said. “For example, a reduction of one per cent in the mortgage insurance stress test or an extended amortization limit of 30 years would have added to indebtedness and resulted in house price inflation of five to six times more than this maximum.”

This article was written by Steve Huebl and was originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends blog on April 5th 2019.

Protecting your pre-approval

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 03 Apr 2019 14:31:11 GMT

People mistakenly believe once they’ve been pre-approved or approved by a lender it’s all done.

But what they don’t realize a lender may pull their credit 30 days prior to close. They also don’t realize lenders can request updated documents in that time. And, if some of the original information that got you the mortgage approval in the first place changes, and for the worse, you could lose your financing. Here’s a short list of actions that could put your approval on pause:

Having additional credit reports pulled by another broker or lender

The lender will often pull your credit again right before financing. If the lender sees that other brokers or lenders have pulled your credit, the lender views this as credit seeking and it can put your funding in jeopardy.

Applying for additional credit elsewhere

The lender calculates your debt based on the amount of credit you have. If you are applying for new credit, the obvious assumption is that you are planning on using it. Don’t get any new credit until the closing date is passed.

Closing out credit accounts

Credit is not a bad thing… unless you are having a hard time managing it. Old credit shows a long history of being able to handle credit. Lenders like that, so don't rush to cut up your credit cards just yet. If you can, make above your minimum monthly payments to get in a better standing with your current accounts.

Moving money around without a paper trail

When you settle with the bank on the contract of the mortgage, the lender will require bank statements showing your saved money. They look at the history along with the balance. If there are any unusual deposits, you will need to explain where the money came from. Be prepared to show a paper trail. If your downpayment comes from savings, keep in mind the bank will want 90 days bank statements to ensure the money is accounted for.

Increasing your debt

The lender always looks at your debt-to-income ratio. If you increase your debt, you can risk going over the maximum amount of debt compared to your income.

The biggest, and most common offence to this rule is buying a new car or obtaining a big box store credit card.

Don't be tempted! If you want to keep your current pre-approval amount, keep your ratio steady.

If you have any questions or want to arrange for a mortgage preapproval, any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts would love to help!

This article was originally included in the DLC Newsletter for April of 2019.

Impacts of the Stress Test

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 26 Mar 2019 18:13:30 GMT

There’s been a lot of talk about the government’s mortgage stress test recently—particularly since it was left untouched in last week’s federal budget, despite high expectations of at least some tweaks.

But a recent report from Teranet shows some of the tangible impacts the stress test has had on the mortgage market, namely that Canada’s big banks appear to have been the biggest losers from the new rules.

The Big 5 banks saw their share of mortgages in Ontario decline to 72.6% in 2018 from 75.3% in 2017, according to Teranet, which heads Ontario’s electronic registry system.

On the flip-side, credit unions and private lenders, which don’t fall under the rules of the stress test, came out as the biggest winners, with their market share in Ontario both rising 0.8% over the same time period, followed by Trust companies with a 0.7% share gain.

Private lenders accounted for 6.7% of mortgage originations in 2018, up from 4.9% in 2016. In Toronto, private lenders have an even higher market share, at 8.9%.

Chris Nichilo, founder of private lending firm Magnetic Capital Group, told the Globe and Mail they’ve seen a significant increase in demand from those unable to qualify for a conventional mortgage under the stress test. He added that the upsurge in demand has allowed private lenders to start dropping rates as funding becomes increasingly available.

“It’s becoming a more competitive space—there’s a lot more money in the marketplace than there ever was,” he said.

While these market share figures are for Ontario only, they provide a good indication of shifting market share dynamics across the country, given that there are no national statistics on market share for all mortgage lenders.

Decline in Mortgage Refis and Switches

Another fallout of the stress test was a 24% fall in mortgage refinances and switches—or 50,000 mortgages—in just a year’s time, the Teranet report found.

“This may be due to mortgagors staying through their term and not exploring options for a refinance or switch as aggressively as they may have done before,” it noted.

Mortgage switches in favour of the Big 5 banks fell 5.5 percentage points (8,000 switches) to 54.5% in 2018. Meanwhile, switches from the big banks to other lenders increased 2.1 percentage points to 34.3%.

“This, combined with the fact that the Big-5 have lost nearly 3% market share, point to the stress test negatively impacting the Big-5,” Teranet concluded.

Economic Consequences of the Stress Test

In a separate report penned by Will Dunning, Chief Economist at Mortgage Professionals Canada, highlighted several economic consequences of the stress test, including an 11% year-over-year decline in home resale activity (down 15% from 2016).

He also commented on the reduction in home prices seen so far, which CMHC CEO Evan Siddall applauded in a Toronto Star opinion piece .

“Houses are something like $40,000 (5.3%) cheaper in Toronto because of the stress test—and double that (over $80,000 or 7.9% per cent) in Vancouver,” Siddall wrote. “So, while the medicine may taste awful, it’s working well.”

While first-time homebuyers in the country’s most competitive markets will cheer the reduction in prices, Dunning says they come with an economic cost.

“Combining the effects of reduced housing activity with the ‘negative housing wealth effect,’ the mortgage stress tests will cause employment in Canada to be at least 200,000 lower than it would otherwise be, once adjustments have fully occurred,” he noted.

The Stress Test and the Federal Election

While the Liberal government ignored calls to tweak the stress test in its budget last week—instead implementing alternative changes to address affordability—the stress test is likely to figure heavily in the upcoming fall election.

Opposition parties have already weighed in on housing unaffordability, and specifically the mortgage rules.

Conservative MP and Shadow Minister of Finance Tom Kmiec recently penned a piece outlining how the stress test has negatively affected the homeownership aspirations of thousands of young families across the country.

“Despite the best of intentions, it is clear that these new mortgage rules have stymied a national housing market in recovery, robbed young families of the ability to step into their first home and spun the wheel of fortune in favour of wealthy cash buyers and leveraged investment funds,” he wrote .

Meanwhile, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has so far proposed two measures addressed at improving housing affordability, including calling on the CMHC to support co-housing as a mortgage option, and the re-introduction of 30-year amortizations, which could be used to lower monthly mortgage payments.

Bringing back 30-year amortizations is one of 10 ideas put forth by Mortgage Professionals Canada in its recently released recommendations to policy-makers.

The association also calls for: the de-coupling of the stress test rate from the Bank of Canada posted rate, instead setting it at 0.75% above the contracted rate; allowing refinances on mortgages with up to 75% loan to value (currently the maximum is 80%); and exempting mortgage renewals with new lenders from being subject to the stress test if the mortgage holder has met their mortgage payment obligations for five years of their amortization period.

“Our association has never asked for outright removal of the stress tests; we are reasonably asking for a reduction of them…” MPC President and CEO Paul Taylor noted in a public statement. “Without some adjustments, homes will continue to be on sale for the wealthy and unattainable for the young middle class we promised to support.”

This article was written by Steve Huebl and was originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends on March 26th 2019.

Canadian Awards Nominations 2019

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 22 Mar 2019 14:49:25 GMT

Congratulations to everyone at CME for the nominations this year!

We're proud of everyone at Canadian Mortgage Experts for their commitment and dedication to their clients. We're also proud to have our company recognized as one of the best in the country with some of the best brokers in the country (as evidenced by the CMA Brokerage of the Year).

Here are some of the nominations we received in 2019 for the Canadian Mortgage Awards and for the Mortgage Awards of Excellence.

We're so proud to have CME Cares - our charitable initiative receive the following nomination:

Congrats are in order for Adam, Dean, and Deryk, for their nomination of the Canadian Mortgage Award for Private Lending Broker of the Year. The team at The Funding Department is top shelf and VERY deserving of this nomination.

Well done Alex Mcfadyen - nominated for the Canadian Mortgage Award - Young Gun of the Year. The Mortgage Pug making things happen!

And it's really nice to see Chad Oyhenart getting the nod for Broker of the Year - as part of the CME management team, not only does Chad help direct the number 1 DLC Franchise in Canada, he also has a thriving broker business himself. Well done Chad.

What the Canadian Federal Budget did for housing

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 20 Mar 2019 15:23:23 GMT

Federal Budget 2019--Actions for Homebuyers

In its fourth fiscal plan, the Trudeau government spent its entire revenue windfall leaving the deficit projection little changed. In this election budget, Finance Minister Bill Morneau announced $22.8 billion over six years in new spending initiative mostly for homebuyers, students and seniors. Trudeau promised in his first budget to have eliminated all red ink by this year. He will instead head for an October election with an annual deficit of nearly $20 billion. Ottawa is projecting a string of double-digit deficits through the end of 2022 (see Table and Chart below).

The key debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to be 30.8% this fiscal year and edges downward only very slowly to 30% over the four-year forecast horizon.

Today's budget offered help to young homebuyers, many of whom find it very difficult to afford to purchase in some of our more expensive cities. There were two measures targetted at first-time homebuyers:

Maximum Withdrawal from RRSPs Is Increased

The simplest to understand is the $10,000 increase in the federal Home Buyers' Plan (HBP) maximum tax-free withdrawal from RRSPs to $35,000, effective immediately. This allowable withdrawal for first-time buyers will now also apply to people experiencing the breakdown of a marriage or common-law partnership who don't meet the usual requirement of being a first-time homebuyer.

The new limit would apply to HBP withdrawals made after March 19, 2019.

Those taking advantage of the higher HBP limit will have to keep in mind that the repayment timeline is unchanged. Home buyers must put the money back into their RRSP over 15 years to avoid full ordinary income taxation on HBP withdrawal. Now Canadians using these funds will have to repay a maximum of $35,000 – instead of $25,000 – over the same period.

The Boldest Move: The CMHC First-Time Homebuyer Incentive

A $1.25 billion fund administered by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) over three years will provide 5% of the cost of an existing home and 10% of the price of a new home through what amounts to an interest-free loan to be repaid when the property is sold. The money would go to first-time home buyers applying for insured mortgages. The key stipulations are:

Users must have a downpayment of at least 5%, but less than 20%;
Household income must be less than $120,000;
The purchase price cannot be more than four times the buyers' household income.

For example, say you’re hoping to buy a $400,000 home with the minimum required 5% down payment, which works out to be $20,000. With the new incentive, you could receive up to $40,000 (for a new home) through the CMHC. Now, instead of taking out a $380,000 mortgage, you’d need to borrow only $340,000. This would lower your monthly mortgage bill from over $1,970 to less than $1,750. The incentive is 10% for buyers purchasing a newly built home and 5% for existing homes.

Homeowners would eventually have to repay this so-called 'shared mortgage,' likely at resale, though it is unclear how this would work. CMHC might share in any capital gain (or loss)-- receiving 5% or 10% of the sale price (not the purchase price). At the time of this writing, these details had not been hammered out.

These stipulations effectively limit purchases under this plan to properties priced at less than $500,000 ($480,000 maximum in insured mortgage and incentive, plus the downpayment), which is close to the national average sales price of $468,350 (which is down 5.2% from the average price one year ago). However, the national average price is heavily skewed by sales in Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area, two of Canada's most active and expensive markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculations cuts close to $100,000 off the national average price, trimming it to just under $371,000. What this tells us is that the relief for first-time homebuyers is pretty meagre for young people living in our two most expensive regions.

Arguably, the max price point of $500,000 for this plan is where the affordability challenge only really begins in our higher-priced housing markets. The most acute affordability problems surround medium-sized and larger condo units or single-detached homes in the GTA and GVA; yet, most of these are beyond the price range covered by the CMHC plan. The impact, of course, would be broader in other regions, but affordability in many of those is historically quite normal. The most significant impact will be in low-priced new builds.

Also, mortgage applicants under this plan still have to qualify under the federal stress test , which ensures that borrowers will be able to keep up with the payments even if interest rates rise by roughly two full percentage. The incentive, however, would substantially lower the bar for test takers, as applicants would have to qualify for a lower mortgage.

Before the budget, many stakeholders had been arguing that with the rapid slowdown in the economy and the Bank of Canada unlikely to raise interest rates this year, the B-20 stress test is too onerous and should be eased.

The government is hoping to have the plan up and running by September.

Bottom Line: These housing measures are focussed on the demand side of the market, rather than encouraging the construction of new affordable housing. And while the budget does earmark $10 billion over nine years for new rental homes, it does not propose tax breaks or reduced red tape for homebuilders.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper DLC's Chief Economist.

Insurance Products When You Own a Home

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 19 Mar 2019 17:20:01 GMT

When it comes to your home, big or small, be prepared to be bombarded by a number of insurance products to keep you protected. While it can seem overwhelming, it’s a good idea to get familiar with the basics of some of the insurance you will either need to have, or choose as an optional.

Title Insurance: Title insurance is an insurance policy that protects residential or commercial property owners and their lenders against losses related to the property’s title or ownership. It is not a requirement in many parts of Canada, but don’t dismiss it outright.

Title Insurance can protect you from existing liens on the property’s title, but it’s most common use is protection against title fraud. Title fraud typically involves someone using stolen personal information, or forged documents to transfer your home’s title to him/herself, without your knowledge. The fraudster then gets a mortgage on your home and disappears with the money. Title Insurance is a one-time fee or premium with the cost based on the value of your property. You can purchase title insurance through your lawyer or title insurance company like First Canadian Title Company.

Mortgage Protection Insurance: Just before you sign off on your mortgage, your broker is required to tell you about mortgage protection insurance. While this insurance is also optional, don’t dismiss it outright. Almost every broker has a story of someone who passed on the extra coverage and tragedy hit. The majority of people skip over getting mortgage insurance for two reasons: they don’t want to spend the money, or they already have some type of life insurance policy through work.

But if you have spouse and kids, you need to think about whether they can carry on with the mortgage payment. If they can’t they’ll be forced to sell. For a few dollars a month extra, it may not be a bad idea.

There are also a number of different policies that could work for your budget. Manulife’s Mortgage Protection Plan offers you immediate insurance and can be canceled at any given time.

While you think you may be covered through your work, you need to take a closer look at the policy.

Mortgage insurance is a debt replacement while life insurance is an income replacement. You need to understand the difference. You also need to see just how much you’re going to get through your life insurance policy. Unless you’re a police office or firefighter, you may end up being surprised just how little you end up with at the end of the day.

Property/fire insurance: Before you close on your home, your lender is going to require you have home insurance. While there are different types of coverage, home insurance generally covers you from damage to the home that is accidental or unexpected like a fire. It can also cover the contents of the home depending on your insurance package. If you’re buying a condo or a strata, you’re also going to need similar condo insurance that covers you for your unit.

Consider this: Just because you have home insurance doesn’t mean you’re covered in the event of a flood or earthquake. Depending on where you live, you may need to purchase additional coverage to be protected from a natural disaster. It’s best to talk to your insurance provider to make sure you’ve got the coverage you need. Don't know anyone? Talk to any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts, we'd love to make an introduction.

This article was included in the DLC monthly newsletter for March 2019, but we posted it here, because we care about you. Deeply.

Home Sales Fall Sharply in February 2019

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 15 Mar 2019 17:38:01 GMT

February Home Sales Weaken Sharply--Was It Weather or Stress Tests?

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales dropped sharply from January to February, plummeting 9.1% to its lowest level since November 2012. The month-over-month decline was the biggest since the B-20 stress test was introduced in January of last year.

The number of existing home sales was down in three-quarters of all local markets, including all major cities. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was down 4.4% to reach the lowest level for the month of February since 2009. It was also almost 12% below the 10-year February average. In British Columbia, Alberta as well as Newfoundland and Labrador, sales were more than 20% below their 10-year average for the month.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes declined by 3.2% in February, led by GTA regional municipalities that surround the City of Toronto, in addition to Hamilton-Burlington, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg.

With sales down by more than new listings in February, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 54.1% compared to 57.6% in January. Looking beyond its monthly volatility, this measure of market balance has remained close to the long-term average of 53.5% since early 2018.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, about 70% of all local markets were in balanced-market territory in February 2019.

There were 5.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of February 2019, a three-and-a-half-year high and above its long-term average of 5.3 months. That said, there are significant regional differences. The number of months of inventory has swollen far above its long-term average in Prairie provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador; as a result, homebuyers there have an ample choice of listings available for purchase. By contrast, the measure remains well below its long-term average in Ontario and the Maritimes.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) was little changed (-0.1%) y/y in February 2019. That said, it still marked the first decline in almost a decade.

Condo apartment units recorded a y/y price increase of 2.4% in February, while townhouse/row unit prices were up 1%. By comparison, one and two-storey single-family home prices were down 1.7% and 1% y/y in February.

Trends continue to vary widely among the 17 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI. Results remain mixed in British Columbia, with prices down on a y/y basis in Greater Vancouver (-6.1%) and the Fraser Valley (-2.8%). By contrast, prices posted a y/y increase of 3% in Victoria and were up 7.7% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Among Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets tracked by the index, MLS® HPI benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in Guelph (+6.8%), the Niagara Region (+6.5%), Hamilton-Burlington (+5%) and the GTA (+2.3%). By contrast, home prices were little changed (+0.2%) on a y/y basis in Oakville-Milton, while in Barrie and District prices remain below year-ago levels (-4.3%).

Across the Prairies, supply is historically elevated relative to sales, and home prices are down from year-ago levels. Benchmark prices were down by 4.4% in Calgary, 4.5% in Edmonton, 5.1% in Regina and 3% in Saskatoon. The home pricing environment will likely remain weak in these cities until demand and supply come back into better balance.

Home prices rose 7.4% y/y in Ottawa (led by a 10.8% increase in townhouse/row unit prices), 6.2% in Greater Montreal (led by a 7.8% increase in apartment unit prices) and 1.6% in Greater Moncton (led by a 7.9% increase in townhouse/row unit prices).(see Table 1 below).

Bottom Line

It appears that the housing slowdown is deepening, adding to the weakness in the overall economy. Some of the softening in February might have been weather-related, but tighter mortgage credit availability was no doubt an issue as well. Many are now calling for an easing in the stress test qualification rate from the posted five-year fixed rate, currently at 5.34%, to closer to the actual conventional rate, about 200 basis points lower.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau, who is set to deliver his pre-election budget next week, is also being pressured to extend mortgage terms from 25 years to 30 years to help ease the situation.

“For aspiring homebuyers being kept on the sidelines by the mortgage stress-test, it’s a bitter pill to swallow when policymakers say the policy is working as intended,” said Barb Sukkau, CREA’s president. “Fewer qualified buyers means sellers are affected too.”

Today's housing release comes one day after Statistics Canada announced that Canadian home values fell last year for the first time in 30 years amid falling prices in the Vancouver region--the priciest in the country--even as household debt burdens hit another record high. The 0.6% decline in house prices is the first decrease in countrywide home values in data going back to 1990.

Households meanwhile experienced a rise in debt burdens at the end of last year, with the debt to disposable income ratio hitting a record 174% in the fourth quarter. The deterioration reflects a sharp slowdown in income growth at the end of 2018.

Canadians are also spending a larger proportion of their income on servicing the debt. The debt service ratio rose to 14.9%, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2007.

In a separate report, the agency said new home prices fell 0.1% in January from a year earlier -- the first decline since 2009. While the index doesn’t include condominiums, the weakness was driven by declines in the Toronto and Vancouver regions, which fell 1.5% and 0.3% respectively.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper and was originally published as part of her regular newsletter.

Mortgage Financing Through a Divorce

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 12 Mar 2019 15:43:58 GMT

Going through a divorce doesn’t mean you have to split from your home.

When we tie the knot with our soulmate, we assume it’s going to be forever. It’s pretty much written in the vows. Unfortunately not all marriages have fairytale endings. In fact, a very significant amount of marriages in Canada end in divorce. The most recent data suggests 38 per cent of all marriages in Canada don’t last until death. The average marriage lasts 14 years, with 42 per cent of divorces occurring in marriages lasting between 10 and 24 years.

The reasons for the divorce rate are many and complicated and not really necessary to discuss here.

What we do know is, divorces can get ugly and be costly for both individuals involved. And if the marriage is years old, there’s likely a home or property that gets caught in the middle.

A typical divorce scenario sees that when the couple breaks up, the matrimonial home is sold and what’s left over is split. In almost all cases, even when one party wants to keep the home, the lawyers, the banks and the professionals always suggest selling the home. It makes sense, since most couples get a mortgage they can afford together, not on their own. But if the home is full of memories, or children are involved, it can be an extremely painful situation.

There is a unique alternative very few professionals even know exists.

All three of Canada’s mortgage insurance providers, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Genworth Financial and Canada Guaranty, offer what's called a Spousal Buyout Program.

This program allows one party to refinance the matrimonial home up to 95 per cent of its appraised value, and pay out any debts related to the marriage.

Traditionally, you can only refinance on an existing mortgage up to 80 per cent of the appraised value.

The program is considered a purchase, so all the requirements and qualifications needed in a traditional mortgage still apply. In this case, you’ll also need a purchase agreement and a separation agreement with all the debts and payments spelled out.

The spousal buyout program is a one-time opportunity. It can be used to pay off other debts outside the separation agreement, but it depends on which one of the three insurers you use.

Even with a helpful loan-to-value ratio, some people still can’t afford to take on the home on their own. The program also allows people to bring on a cosigner, often a new partner or family member.

At the end of the day, divorce is unfortunate. The programs allows you to keep your home and your kids can stay where they’ve grown up. And that makes the situation at least somewhat more bearable.

If you do find yourself in a divorce and you’re not sure what to do about your home, contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts before making any decisions. We can walk you through the process.

This article was originally included in the DLC Newsletter for March 2019.

Another Strong Jobs Report, But Bank of Canada Won't Budge

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 08 Mar 2019 15:28:59 GMT

February Canadian Jobs Report Remains Strong, But Slump Continues

The employment report is the lone bright spot in an economy that has slumped across the board. According to today's jobs report from Statistics Canada, the economy added 55,900 net new jobs last month, all of them full-time positions. This is the second consecutive monthly job surge for an economy that has barely grown in the past five months (see chart below). The two-month accretion is the best start to a year since 1981. Canada's economy has added 290,000 jobs since August, the most substantial six-month rise since the early 2000s. Moreover, there are still a half-million job vacancies which continue to attract foreign workers.

The Canadian dollar shot up on the news, bouncing back from its plunge on Wednesday when the Bank of Canada signalled that the widespread weakness would keep the Bank on the sidelines for longer than expected.

In a speech yesterday, Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson said policymakers spent “a lot of time” in policy deliberations discussing four-quarter output data that she said were weak in certain areas -- citing business investment, housing and consumption. The soft data mean the economy will probably be weaker in the first half of this year than the Bank of Canada had been anticipating as recently as January, Patterson said. She characterized the data picture as “mixed” and said the economy is likely to rebound later in 2019, boosted by the robust labour market. In January, the Bank of Canada forecasts a rebound in the second quarter of this year.

The employment gains in recent months come amid an otherwise dismal performance for the economy amid stresses in the oil sector, weakening housing markets, diminishing trade prospects, volatility in global financial markets and waning consumer and business confidence. Economists were forecasting an employment gain of just 1,200 in February.

The unemployment rate in February was unchanged at 5.8% as the number of people searching for work held steady. The strength, however, was not widespread across the country. Ontario was the sole province with a notable employment rise last month while the jobless rate was unchanged as more people were looking for work. Net new jobs declined in Manitoba and were little changed in the remaining provinces.

Even the wage picture is improving. Annual average hourly wage gains accelerated to 2.3% last month from 2% in January, with pay for permanent employees up 2.2% compared to 1.8% previously.

Bottom Line: The Bank of Canada will remain on hold until the strength in the labour market filters into consumer and business spending. The headwinds of global uncertainty, energy market weakness and the housing slowdown contribute to the Bank's cautious stance. The Canadian trade gap hit a record high in December, reported earlier this week, almost entirely due to the collapse in crude oil prices. It was a fifth straight monthly decline in Canadian exports. Also, the US tariffs on steel and aluminum exports continue to weigh on the economy. It appears there is little prospect that the renegotiated Canada-Mexico-US trade deal will be confirmed by the US Congress this year, adding to the uncertainty.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC's Chief Economist, it was originally published as part of her regular newsletter.

Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ per cent

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 06 Mar 2019 15:28:03 GMT

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

Recent data suggest that the slowdown in the global economy has been more pronounced and widespread than the Bank had forecast in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). While the sources of moderation appear to be multiple, trade tensions and uncertainty are weighing heavily on confidence and economic activity. It is difficult to disentangle these confidence effects from other adverse factors, but it is clear that global economic prospects would be buoyed by the resolution of trade conflicts.

Many central banks have acknowledged the building headwinds to growth, and financial conditions have eased as a result. Meanwhile, progress in US-China trade talks and policy stimulus in China have improved market sentiment and contributed to firmer commodity prices.

For Canada, the Bank was projecting a temporary slowdown in late 2018 and early 2019, mainly because of last year’s drop in oil prices. The Bank had forecast weak exports and investment in the energy sector and a decline in household spending in oil-producing provinces. However, the slowdown in the fourth quarter was sharper and more broadly based. Consumer spending and the housing market were soft, despite strong growth in employment and labour income. Both exports and business investment also fell short of expectations. After growing at a pace of 1.8 per cent in 2018, it now appears that the economy will be weaker in the first half of 2019 than the Bank projected in January.

Core inflation measures remain close to 2 per cent. CPI inflation eased to 1.4 per cent in January, largely because of lower gasoline prices. The Bank expects CPI inflation to be slightly below the 2 per cent target through most of 2019, reflecting the impact of temporary factors, including the drag from lower energy prices and a wider output gap.

Governing Council judges that the outlook continues to warrant a policy interest rate that is below its neutral range. Given the mixed picture that the data present, it will take time to gauge the persistence of below-potential growth and the implications for the inflation outlook. With increased uncertainty about the timing of future rate increases, Governing Council will be watching closely developments in household spending, oil markets, and global trade policy.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 24, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

The remaining announcement dates in 2019 are as follows:

April 24th 2019*
May 29th 2019
July 10th 2019*
September 4th 2019
October 30th 2019*
December 4th 2019

* Monetary Policy Report published

Homeownership Rates in Canada Still Among Highest Globally

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 05 Mar 2019 17:13:12 GMT

Canadians sure do love owning their homes!

Despite housing affordability concerns across the country, homeownership rates in Canada remain among some of the highest in the world.

As of 2016 (the most recent data available), Canada boasts an overall homeownership rate of 67.8%, down slightly from a peak of 69% in 2011, according to research from RBC Economic Research. Comparatively, the U.S. has a homeownership rate of 63.4%.

Even for those aged 35 and under, more than 40% of households own their own homes.

“We take issue with the notion that Canada has a homeownership problem,” reads the RBC report. “…the proportion of all Canadian households who own a home is one of the highest among advanced economies.”

The report cautions the federal government to “tread carefully” when considering measures to address the issue of affordability.

It argues that those measures—such as relaxing the mortgage stress test , extending amortizations for insured mortgages or increasing the allowable RRSP takeout for first-time homebuyers—would only bring short-term relief to homeowners and do nothing to address the issue of high household debt.

RBC adds that the measures focus on boosting demand and increasing buyers’ purchasing power, which on their own would likely inflate prices and lead to a further deterioration of affordability down the road.

Addressing the Supply Issue

“[Those measures alone] do nothing to address what we believe is the root of Canada’s housing woes: gaps in the mix of housing options in some of Canada’s larger markets,” reads the report. “In our view, the longer-lasting remedy to Canada’s affordability crisis lies first and foremost on the supply side of the equation.”

It adds that solving supply isn’t the federal government’s responsibility alone, and calls on all levels of government to work together to develop solutions.

“What millennials in Vancouver and Toronto really need is more inventory of homes they can afford, and a better mix of housing options—be it to own or rent,” the report says.

“At the very least, the collective goal should be to remove barriers (regulatory, administrative or otherwise) inhibiting home developers and builders to respond quickly to the demand for new housing—especially when that demand is rising rapidly.”

More Homeownership Stats

Some additional stats on homeownership trends in Canada include:

Calgary has among the highest homeownership rate among global cities at 73%.
Toronto (66.5%) and Vancouver (63.7%), the least affordable markets in Canada, still have homeownership rates double those in cities like Berlin (37.2%) and Paris (33.2%).
Among Canada’s large cities, Montreal has the lowest overall homeownership rate at 55.7%
For those under the age of 35, the homeownership rate was the highest in Calgary (50.6%), and lowest in Victoria (27.4%).

This article was written by Steve Huebl and was originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends on March 4th 2019.

3 Misconceptions of Reverse Mortgages in Canada

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 28 Feb 2019 15:55:00 GMT

One of the benefits of working with a Canadian Mortgage Expert is choice. When you work with a single bank or financial institution, you are limited to the products they offer. When you deal with a mortgage broker, you gain access to products from many lenders. Some of these products are very specialized and provide financing solutions as unique as the people they were developed for.

One such product is a reverse mortgage. In Canada, HomEquity Bank offers the CHIP reverse mortgage to homeowners 55+. It’s certainly not for everyone, but while mortgage products are becoming increasingly difficult to qualify for in Canada, it’s certainly worth considering if you meet the criteria.

The following points were adapted from an article was written by Roland Mackintosh, a business development manager at HomEquity.

If you have any questions about your financial situation, your current mortgage, or learning more about a CHIP reverse mortgage (for you or your parents), please don't hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts.

The top 3 misconceptions about Reverse Mortgages are as follows:

1. The bank owns your home.
2. Your estate can owe more than your home
3. The best time to take a Reverse Mortgage is at the end of your retirement

Let’s examine each misconception in more detail.

THE BANK OWNS YOUR HOME.

Over 50% of Canadian homeowners over the age of 65, believe the bank owns your home once you’ve taken a reverse mortgage. Not true! We simply register our position on the title of the home, exactly the same as any other mortgage instrument, with the main difference in the flexibility of not having to make P&I payments on the reverse mortgage.

YOUR ESTATE CAN OWE MORE THAN YOUR HOME.

A reverse mortgage, unlike most traditional mortgages in Canada, is a non-recourse debt. Non-recourse means if a borrower defaults on the loan, the issuer can seize the home asset, but cannot seek any further compensation from the borrower – even if the collateral asset does not fully cover the full value of the loan. Therefore, when the last homeowner dies (and the reverse mortgage is due), the estate will never be responsible for paying back more than the fair market value of the home. The estate is fully protected – this is not the case for almost any other mortgage loan in Canada, which is full recourse debt. So read the fine print the next time you offer to co-sign for a loan for mom!

THE BEST TIME TO TAKE A REVERSE MORTGAGE IS AT THE END OF YOUR RETIREMENT.

This is a common mistake that reflects an “old-school” financial planning mentality. For the majority of Canadians (without a nice government pension), the old school financial planning mentality is about cash-flow, and is as follows:

a) Begin drawing down non-taxable assets to supplement your retirement income.
b) Once your non-taxable assets are depleted, begin drawing down more of your registered assets (RSP/RIF) to supplement retirement income.
c) Once your registered assets are depleted, sell your home, downsize and re-invest to generate enough cash-flow to last you until you die.

The problem with the “old-school” financial planning model is two-fold:

1. 91% of Canadian seniors have no plans to sell their home ( CBC News “Canadian Boomers Want To Stay In Their Homes As They Age ).

2. You are missing out on a huge tax-saving opportunity by not taking out a reverse mortgage in the beginning of your retirement.

“Research has consistently shown that strategic uses of reverse mortgages can be used to improve a retiree’s financial situation, and that reverse mortgages generally provide more strategic benefits when used early in retirement as opposed to being used as a last resort.” – Jamie Hopkins, Forbes

In Canada, a reverse mortgage can be set-up to provide homeowners with a monthly draw out of the approved amount. For example: client is approved for $240,000 and decides to take $1,000/month. This is deposited into the clients’ bank account over the next 20-years. Interest accumulates only on the amount drawn (ie: not on the full dollar amount at the onset).

This strategy allows clients to draw down less income from their registered assets to support their retirement lifestyle. In turn, this can create some excellent tax savings, since home equity is non-taxable. Imagine lowering your nominal tax bracket by 5 – 10% each and every year over a 20 year period? The tax savings can be huge. You are also able to preserve your investable assets, which historically, can generate a higher rate of return when invested over a greater period of time.

Advice for Single Homebuyers

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 26 Feb 2019 17:40:28 GMT

More than a third of first-time homebuyers in Canada are single. If you’re thinking of joining this group, here’s what you need to do and know before jumping into homeownership.

Study the market.

Identify neighbourhoods you want to live in and check to see how much properties in that area are selling for.

Next, figure out how much you can afford. Remember to include estimates for property tax, utilities, insurance and any other expenses you don’t pay as a renter (condo fees, for example).

Assemble your team.

A home purchase should involve financial, legal and real estate professionals. Before first-time homebuyers start exploring properties, they should get a copy of their credit report ( www.equifax.ca ) and examine it closely.

If there is a history of missed or late payments, both of which can bring your number down, start a plan to change your standing by making regular payments on time. (Caution: there is no quick fix for a credit report; beware of companies that offer to change or “fix” yours for a fee.)

If you don’t already work with a financial advisor, consider booking a meeting with one. Reviewing your entire financial picture—debts and assets, insurance and investments, as well as budgets—is something that a professional can help you understand and offer strategies to improve.

Ramp-up savings.

Pare back expenses before making a home purchase. Why? Finalizing the deal on homeownership will include one-time expenses (closing costs and land transfer taxes, for starters) that need to be paid before move-in day. Homeownership will also bring new on-going expenses (such as property tax and utilities).

Subtract what you currently pay for housing from the estimated cost of living in the new home. Put the difference in a high-interest savings account. Here is a test: if you can make that payment every month, then you likely can afford the home you have your eye on. For tips on creative ways to save for a down payment go to read:

Consider help from family.

According to a recent Genworth Canada First-Time Homeownership Survey , first-time homebuyers in Toronto and Vancouver tend to have higher down payments than buyers in other parts of the country. That is due partly to larger savings of buyers in those areas, but also to larger gifts and loans from family.

A gift or loan from family can be a great help, but this is an arrangement that shouldn’t depend only on a hug and a handshake. Consider drawing up a contract spelling out the specifics of the deal.

How much money is being provided? Does it need to be paid back and, if so, when? If your family member will be sharing the home with you, how much will each of you be putting towards regular expenses, the down payment, or the closing costs? In whose names will the utility bills be set up, and whose name will be on the property title?

Hire a lawyer to do this paper work. That doesn’t have to involve many billable hours, especially if, before meeting the lawyer, you have an open conversation with your family and agree on answers to the above.

Another avenue worth exploring is the Genworth Canada Family Plan , which is meant to help another family member get into a home for a variety of reasons, including a parent who wishes to help an adult entrepreneurial child buy a home, or a parent helping to buy a home for an adult child at a post-secondary educational facility. With the Family Plan it’s important to note that the individual occupying the home must be on title to the property along with the co-applicant. This is not intended for use as a secondary dwelling. The down payment must be from their own resources, so gifts are ineligible.

Protect yourself

Although 35% of first-time homebuyers are buying on their own, many will partner up later.

If you start a relationship and allow another person to move into your home, that person may eventually have legal rights in relation to your home. How does that happen? If you live together long enough, you and your partner may become common-law spouses and that may trigger rights and responsibilities for you both.

When do you and your partner go from couple to common-law? The amount of time you spend living together is the main determining factor and varies from province to province.

How can first-time homeowners protect themselves? With an honest conversation about expectations and specific responsibilities. The main question is what will happen to the home if you split up? Consider a cohabitation agreement (again, with the help of a lawyer) to cover everything you agree to verbally.

Make sure to also outline the nitty-gritty details of day-to-day finances: how will you split the regular bills and when will they be paid? Which one of you will be responsible for making sure those payments are made on time? If there is a major expense, such as a roof repair or furnace replacement, will you both contribute?

For more tips on creative ways to save for a down payment go to www.homeownership.ca.

This article was written by Marc Shendale, Vice President of Business Development of Genworth Canada.

Your Credit Score

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 19 Feb 2019 14:12:06 GMT

Here's what you need to know about improving your credit score.

Along with employment stability, and downpayment/equity, your credit score and how you manage your credit is a huge factor in qualifying for a mortgage. If you want the best interest rates available on the market, the higher your credit score the better.

However, if you’ve had credit mishaps in the past, don’t let it stop you from improving your score now. Everyone has a credit score, and regardless of where it is on the scale of 300-900, there is always room for improvement. So here are some things to consider that will help boost your credit score.

Make all your payments on time. This is so important. Probably the most important factor. When any lender extends credit to you, you agree to make payments on a schedule. When you break that schedule, you show the lender you can’t be trusted. The lender reports the missed payments to the credit reporting agencies, and your credit score is lowered. It’s that simple. So what if you miss a payment? The second you realize it, or have the money, make the payment. It’s also a good idea to contact the lender, let them know what happened and tell them that the payment has been made. Although lenders only report after payments have been missed for 30 days, don’t let that stop you from making all your payments on time.

Stop acquiring new credit. Assuming you have at least 2 different trade lines with a minimum $2500 balance each, you shouldn’t just go out and acquire new credit. Now, if you need a car loan, that’s fine, make an application, but having more credit available to you just for the sake of it doesn’t help your credit score. In fact, each time a lender looks at your credit report, it will lower your credit score a little bit.

Keep a reasonable balance. The more credit you use compared to the limit, the less credit worthy you will appear. So it’s better to carry a minimal balance compared to maxing out your credit cards, and just making the minimum payments. It’s a good idea to keep your spending to 20%-30% of the limit of the card or line of credit. That shows good utilization.

Check your credit report periodically. Did you know that roughly 20% of credit reports have misinformation on them? Mistakes happen all the time, lenders misreport information, people with the same names get merged reports, you miss a final bill from a utility and it gets sent to collection without you knowing. By checking your credit periodically, you can stay on top of everything and correct any errors before they become a problem. Equifax Canada has a great program. As does Transunion.

Pay out collections immediately. It happens more than you would think. Closed cell phone contracts with a small balance owing, or a utility final billing that got missed, parking tickets, or wage garnishments, or spousal support payments. They can all show up on your credit bureau, and they won’t drop off until they are handled. So if you have any of these on your credit report, you should consider taking care of them as soon as possible. Then make sure to follow up, and ensure they have been removed.

Use your credit card. On the other side of the coin, you want to make sure that you at least periodically use your credit at least every three months. Loan payments are great in that they come out of your account on a schedule, if you only have credit cards, and never use them, there is a chance the lender might not report your usage, and that won’t help your credit score. A simple way to go is to use a credit card for gas and groceries, and pay it off every month.

So there you have it, regardless of what your credit looks like now, if you follow the points outlined above, you will continue to increase your credit score.

If you would like to work through your credit report, and put together a plan so you can qualify for a mortgage, please don’t hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts anytime!

Canadian Home Sales Improve January 2019

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 15 Feb 2019 16:52:42 GMT

January existing home sales rise for the first time in five months.

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales improved in January, climbing 3.6% from December '18 to January '19. Last year's annual sales were the weakest since 2012.

As the chart below shows, national monthly home sales remain below their 10-year moving average and are decidedly lower than in the boom years of 2016 and 2017. Households are still adjusting to the tightened mortgage qualification rules introduced in January 2018. The number of homes trading hands was up from the previous month in half of all local markets, led by Montreal, Ottawa and Winnipeg.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales were down 4% from year-ago levels and posted the weakest January since 2015. Year-over-year (y/y) sales were below the 10-year average for January on a national basis and in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Housing market conditions remain weakest in the Prairie region, and the Lower Mainland of B.C. Housing has been more fragile than the Bank of Canada expected, notwithstanding the tighter mortgage regulations combined with previous actions by provincial governments and CMHC to slow housing activity. The slowdown in housing has contributed meaningfully to the weakness in Canadian economic activity.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes edged up 1% in January, led by a jump in new supply in Greater Vancouver and Hamilton-Burlington.

With sales up by more than new listings, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 56.7% compared to 55.3% posted in December. This measure of market balance has remained close to its long-term average of 53.5% for the last year.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, more than half of all local markets were in balanced market territory in January 2019.

There were 5.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2019, in line with its long-term average. That said, the well-balanced national reading masks significant regional differences. The number of months of inventory has swollen far above its long-term average in Prairie provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador; as a result, homebuyers there have an ample choice of listings available for purchase. By contrast, the measure remains well below its long-term average in Ontario and Prince Edward Island, consistent with seller’s market conditions. In other provinces, sales and inventory are more balanced.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) was up 0.8% y/y in January 2019 – the smallest increase since June 2018.

Following a well-established pattern, condo apartment units recorded the largest y/y price increase in January (+3.3%), followed by townhouse/row units (+1.5%). By comparison, two-storey single-family home prices were little changed (+0.1%) while one-storey single-family home prices edged down (-1.1%).

Trends continue to vary widely among the 17 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI. Results were mixed in British Columbia. Prices were down on a y/y basis in Greater Vancouver (-4.5%) and the Fraser Valley (-0.8%). By contrast, prices posted a y/y increase of 4.2% in Victoria and were up 9.3% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Among housing markets tracked by the index in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region, MLS® HPI benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in Guelph (+6.8%), the Niagara Region (+6.8%), Hamilton-Burlington (+6.4%), Oakville-Milton (+3.3%) and the GTA (+3%). Home prices in Barrie and District remain slightly below year-ago levels (-1.1%).

Among Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets tracked by the index, MLS® HPI benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in Guelph (+7.2%), the Niagara Region (+7%), Hamilton-Burlington (+5%), Oakville-Milton (+3.9%) and the GTA (+2.7%). By contrast, home prices in Barrie and District remain below year-ago levels (-2.7%).

Across the Prairies, supply is historically elevated relative to sales, causing benchmark home prices to remain down from year-ago levels in Calgary (-3.9%), Edmonton (-2.9%), Regina (-3.8%) and Saskatoon (-2%). The home pricing environment will likely remain weak in these cities until elevated supply is reduced.

Home prices rose 7.1% y/y in Ottawa (led by a 9.5% increase in townhouse/row unit prices), 6.3% in Greater Montreal (led by a 9.2% increase in townhouse/row unit prices) and 1% in Greater Moncton (led by a 15.1% increase in townhouse/row unit prices). (see Table 1 below).

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada meets again on March 6th and it is highly unlikely they will hike interest rates. The Canadian economy has been burdened with a weakened oil sector, reduced trade and a weak housing market. Although job growth has been stronger than expected, wage gains have moderated and inflation pressures are muted.

We are likely in store for a prolonged period of modest housing gains in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, stability or softening in much of British Columbia and further weakening in the Prairies, Alberta, and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Sluggish sales and modestly rising prices nationally are likely in prospect for 2019. While there will still be some significant regional divergences, there is no need for further policy actions to affect demand. Indeed, a growing chorus has been calling for lowering the mortgage qualification rate from the posted five-year fixed rate, currently 5.34%, to closer to the actual conventional rate, about 200 basis points lower.

Qualified to Make Sure you Qualify

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 12 Feb 2019 16:36:11 GMT

If you need open-heart surgery, you want to be sure the doctor in the operating room knows what they’re doing. You want to know they’ve got the professional education, skills and experience to carry out the life-saving procedure.

You would expect nothing less from the person handling the biggest financial decision of your life - your mortgage broker.

Though a mortgage broker doesn’t need quite the same qualifications as a heart surgeon, there are still rigorous standards each mortgage professional must meet to do their job.

While regulations can vary in each province, mortgage professionals need to be registered with a government body and be licensed to carry out broker activities.

First, each broker must complete a provincially approved course for mortgage brokering. These courses are offered through various colleges and institutions and can take days or months to complete.

In B.C. for example, mortgage brokers need to pass a course to be registered with the Financial Institutions Commission, or FICOM, and then update their licence every two years.

Agencies like FICOM have the power to investigate public complaints, hand out fines, and suspend or revoke licences of brokers.

“The Registrar of Mortgage Brokers protects the public and enhances mortgage broker industry integrity by enforcing mortgage broker suitability requirements and reducing and preventing market misconduct under the Mortgage Brokers Act and Regulations,” notes the FICOM website.

Not only are courses for mortgage brokers a good foundation, bit it’s these organization’s background and criminal checks that are most important.

Consumers can take comfort in knowing that their mortgage broker has gone through a rigorous screening process before they have any contact with them. The standards in place are also good at weeding out people in the industry.

There are a number of online resources available to the public through the various licensing agencies. Don’t be afraid to ask your mortgage broker about their background; they’ll be more than proud to share with you their qualifications.

This article was published as part of the DLC Newsletter for February 2019.

Surprising January Canadian Employment Stats

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 08 Feb 2019 19:06:37 GMT

January Data From Local Real Estate Boards

In separate releases, the local real estate boards in Canada's largest housing markets released data this week showing home sales fell sharply in Vancouver, edged upward in Toronto and continued robust in Montreal. Overall, higher interest rates, the mortgage stress test and in the case of Vancouver, measures adopted a year ago by the BC and municipal governments still keep many buyers on the sidelines.

In Vancouver, home sales are in a deep slump, declining 39% year/year in January, though they were up 3% month/month. Sales in January were the weakest for that month since 2009--the depth of the financial crisis. Hardest hurt were sales of luxury properties.

The Vancouver benchmark price fell 4.5%, which was the most significant decline since the recession. The area’s composite benchmark price now has decreased by 7.7% since the cyclical peak in June 2018.

The number of listings rose sharply from a year earlier as sellers rushed to market fearing further price declines. In Vancouver, supply-demand conditions now favour buyers.

Toronto home sales edged higher in January, rising 0.6% year/year. Sales were up 3.4% compared to December 2018. The benchmark price rose 2.7% compared to January 2018. The condo apartment market segment continues to lead the price gains. Toronto area supply-demand conditions remain balanced.

Montreal saw a 15% year/year increase in sales last month. Demand remains robust as the number of active listings fell sharply. Benchmark prices of single-family homes increased 3% year/year, while condos prices rose 2%.

Montreal is now a highly desirable sellers' market, which is especially true in the single-family home segment in direct contrast to the underperformance of that sector in the GVA and the GTA over the past year.

CMHC Says Overvaluation Decreasing But Housing Still 'Vulnerable'

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said this week that the country's overall real estate market remains 'vulnerable' despite an easing in overvaluation in cities like Toronto and Victoria in the third quarter of 2018. CMHC is using old data, as we already have numbers through yearend 2018 and preliminary data for January, all showing that overheating in Toronto and Vancouver has dissipated.

Many Calling for Mortgage Stress Test Review

Local real estate boards, mortgage professionals' trade groups and some economists are calling for some relief on the stringency of the federal regulator's mortgage stress test. According to Phil Moore, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, “Today’s market conditions are largely the result of the mortgage stress test that the federal government imposed at the beginning of last year. This measure, coupled with an increase in mortgage rates, took away as much as 25% of purchasing power from many homebuyers trying to enter the market.”

Economists at CIBC and BMO this week highlighted that the tightened qualification requirements for mortgage applicants had slowed activity measurably. While raising the qualification rate by 200 basis points might have made sense eighteen months ago, when housing markets were red hot in Vancouver and Toronto and interest rates were at record lows, we are in a very different place in the economic cycle today.

The Bank of Canada has raised the overnight benchmark policy rate by 75 basis points since the introduction of the new measures, which begs the question of whether 200 basis points is still the right number.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) introduced the B20 rules in January 2018 aiming to thwart a credit bubble amid inflated household debt burdens and frothy housing markets. The new rules force people who want a new uninsured mortgage to demonstrate they can manage payments at rates two percentage points above what’s being offered by a lender. The new rules have been very effective in cooling household borrowing and reversing the gains in overheated housing markets.

Indeed, mortgage growth has shrunk to a 17-year low in Canada. Residential mortgage growth was posted at 3.1% in December from a year earlier, the slowest pace since May 2001, and half the growth rate of two years ago.

The slowdown in housing has had a material effect on the economy as a whole. Weakened economic growth has moved the Bank of Canada to the sidelines. While the Bank is now more cautious in jacking up the policy rate to a neutral level, the residential mortgage market is now--in a stress-test perspective--well into restrictive territory. For example, the Bank's policy rate is at 1.75% (well below the 2.5% rate the BoC considers neutral), while posted mortgage rate used for stress testing is at 5.34%.

This week, OSFI defended the B20 rule suggesting that "The stress test is, quite simply, a safety buffer that ensures a borrower doesn’t stretch their borrowing capacity to its maximum, leaving no room to absorb unforeseen events."

Canadian Job Market Surges in January

Statistics Canada released its January Labour Force Survey this morning showing employment increases of 66,800 versus expectation of merely a 5,000 job gain. The surge was led by record private-sector hiring and service sector jobs for youth. This is good news for an economy facing considerable headwinds in the oil sector, weakening housing activity, volatile financial markets and falling consumer confidence. If sustained, the strong employment data will ease some concerns about the length and depth of the current soft patch.

Even with the strength in job creation, the unemployment rate jumped 0.2 percentage points to 5.8% as more people looked for work--a sign of strength. This suggests there is more capacity in the economy before inflation pressures begin to mount--a big point for the Bank of Canada. Economic growth is now hovering around 1%, but the Bank of Canada expects it to recover to about a 2% pace in the second half of this year. The central bank will remain on the sidelines until it can verify that a rebound is occurring.

Wage gains remained depressed, a key indicator for the Bank. Average hourly wages were up 2% from a year ago, with pay for permanent employees up 1.8%.

Alberta, which has been flattened by slumping oil prices and production cuts, posted a second consecutive monthly decline in employment. Ontario led the job surge followed by Quebec.

Provincial Unemployment Rates
(% 2019, In Ascending Order)

Province	Jan	Dec
British Columbia	4.7	4.4
Quebec	5.4	5.5
Saskatchewan	5.5	5.6
Manitoba	5.5	6.0
Ontario	5.7	5.4
Alberta	6.8	6.4
Nova Scotia	6.9	7.0
New Brunswick	8.2	8.4
Prince Edward Island	9.9	9.6
Newfoundland and Labrador	11.4	11.7

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper. She's awesome.

Alternative Lending, What you Need to Know!

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 05 Feb 2019 17:07:00 GMT

Most homebuyers, when it comes to their financing, want the best rate possible. And that usually means turning to either the big banks, credit unions, or monoline lenders. In the mortgage business, these lenders a typically called, “A” lenders. If you’ve got good credit, a good job and decent down payment, you’re probably looking at one of these A lenders.

But there are some people who don’t fit into conventional lending, and that’s where you might hear the term, Alt A, or alternative lender. What’s an alternative lender? An alternative lender is a mortgage company backed by investors offering mortgage financing with different guidelines on credit and debt servicing and a focus on the property and exit plan.

Alternative lenders are typically there for people coming out of a bankruptcy, with bruised credit, or are self-employed and need to prove some sort of cash flow.

Borrowers will generally need to have minimum 20 to 25 per cent down, there will be applicable lender and broker fees and rates will be higher than conventional lenders. But the rates may not be as high as you think. Some of these Alt A lenders are offering one-year rates between 4.35 and 5.8 per cent. And using an A lender can be a great stepping stone to getting back into a conventional mortgage with the best discounted rate and no fees.

With addition of tougher mortgage rules and stress tests, more people are turning to an alternative lender out of necessity.

If someone has enough equity, there’s always a lender who can assist with financing, but it will come with higher rates and fees.

If you find yourself on the outside of conventional lending, a well-qualified mortgage professional can help you navigate the alternative lending space to help you get the best product that fits your needs.

This article originally appeared as part of the DLC Newsletter for February 2019.

BC Speculation Tax

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 31 Jan 2019 18:30:45 GMT

Speculation and Vacancy Tax

The speculation and vacancy tax is a key measure in tackling the housing crisis in major urban centres in British Columbia, where home prices and rents have skyrocketed out of reach for many British Columbians.

The provincial government is taking action because people who live and work in B.C. deserve an affordable place to call home.

The speculation and vacancy tax is a part of government's 30-Point Plan to make housing more affordable for people in our province.

This new annual tax is designed to:

Target foreign and domestic speculators who own residences in B.C. but don’t pay taxes here
Turn empty homes into good housing for people
Raise revenue that will directly support affordable housing

All owners of residential property in the designated taxable regions of B.C. must complete an annual declaration . Over 99% of British Columbians are estimated to be exempt from the tax.

How to Exempt Yourself

To claim your exemption, you must register your property by March 31, 2019 – and it’s easy to do, either by phone or online. The information you’ll need to register your property declaration will be mailed by mid-February to all owners of residential property within the taxable regions.

Please note that if your property has more than one owner, even if the other owner is your spouse, a separate declaration must be made for each owner.

How the Tax Will Be Charged If You're Not Exempt

The speculation and vacancy tax rate varies depending on the owner’s tax residency and whether the owner is a Canadian citizen or permanent resident of Canada, or a member of a satellite family .

By levying the highest tax rate on foreign owners and satellite families (those who earn a majority of income outside the province and pay little to no income tax in B.C.), the speculation and vacancy tax is a way to make sure these property owners are paying their fair share in taxes.

The speculation and vacancy tax applies based on ownership as of December 31 each year.

Note : The speculation and vacancy tax is distinct from the empty homes tax in the City of Vancouver .

Read our answers to questions on the speculation and vacancy tax and learn about how to declare , the taxable regions and the available exemptions .

Subscribe to receive updates as new information about the speculation and vacancy tax becomes available.

This was originally published on the BC Government website here.

Making 2019 your Turnaround Year

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 29 Jan 2019 19:46:21 GMT

Now that we're well into the new year, why not talk about making it your best year yet!

Everyone shares information about making the best of the new year at the very start of the new year, when we're all in recovery mode!

It’s actually become a bit of a cliché to talk about resolutions at the start of the New Year. You’ve been inundated with pitches to exercise more, “eat right” or pick up a new hobby. These resolutions start out with the best of intentions but ultimately most of us can’t manage to keep them. Within a few days or weeks, we’re back to our old habits. Perhaps only a psychiatrist knows why we can’t keep our resolutions.

So we thought we'd share this list at the end of the month, maybe when you need it most (and have time to take it in)!

While giving up the sweets might seem like an impossible task, getting into some good financial habits is easier than you think. And there is no better time to look at what you might be doing right and perhaps wrong when it comes to your finances and make a change to see a more prosperous 2019. These are by no means brand new ideas but rather tried and tested concepts worth considering.

Set and write down your financial goals for the year. Having these goals written down will help you stay on task. Review them as often as you need to.

Review your household budget. Sometimes we get caught off guard by just how much money we’re spending every month. Take a good look at those expenses, and if there are a few items you can cut, go for it. Everyone has something they spend their money on they think they can’t live without. But being fiscally responsible takes some discipline.

These are just some basic tips to follow. With so many experts and places to look for financial advice, there’s really no excuse not to use the turn of the calendar to get started.

Pay down your credit cards. Credit can be a great thing. It helps get you out of a bind when you need it, or help with an important purchase you can pay for later. But having too much credit-card debt can hurt in the long run. Try to pay off as much of your credit-card debt as you can. Every little bit helps.

Plan for an annual review day. That means sitting down with your accountant, financial planner, even your mortgage broker to see where you are with your finances. Can you pay a little more for your mortgage? Is there a new government policy or an investment that you haven’t heard about from which you could benefit? Financial professionals are up to speed on all the latest options and can advise you accordingly.

Be realistic. We’re constantly squeezed between the things we want to buy and the bills we have to pay. You’re not likely going to go from zero to hero financially in a month, but taking a few easy steps, making good choices and chipping away at your debt will start to pay off.

Perspective for the year ahead!

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 21 Jan 2019 19:38:53 GMT

Stay cool in the 2019 market!

With each New Year, comes the promise of renewal. But for some, the changing calendar can bring anxiety. Especially when it comes to finances. And if you’re getting all worried about mortgage rates after seeing frequent increases the last 18 months, you really shouldn’t fret, and here’s why.

We’ve been spoiled as borrowers for years. Interest rates have been at generational lows for some time. It’s given many of us the opportunity to get into the housing market and find our dream homes. But what goes down must always come up? Maybe that’s not completely correct, but it was only a matter of time before rates climbed back to a more traditional area. As we left 2018, the Bank of Canada rate was 1 3/4 per cent. The reality is, if the economists have it right, rates are going to continue to rise for the next 12 to 24 months. The best fixed-rate mortgage could be at six per cent when all is said and done.

So rather than be scared, be educated.

Fixed rates are typically tied to the world economy where the variable rate is linked to the Canadian economy. When the economy is stable, variable rates will remain low to stimulate buying.

Adding to the rise in rates are the government stress test rules. In the fall of 2017, OSFI, (the Office of Superintendent of Financial Institutions) the agency that regulates the financial industry, announced tighter rules on mortgages. The biggest change related to uninsured mortgages, or homebuyers with 20 per cent or more for a downpayment. These people are now required to go through a “stress test” or qualify using a minimum qualifying rate.

The changes came a year after a similar stress test was introduced for insured mortgages.

It will be up to the federal government if the rise in rates will make them reconsider the stress tests in place. But unless something changes, rates are going to rise. It’s important to keep in mind, a quarter point increase in the BOC rate equates to $13 on every $100,000 of mortgage. It’s not insignificant, especially if you’re carrying a million dollar mortgage, but it’s also very survivable.

In fact, the rates are the only thing we have no control over. There are some things you can do to take the power back. If you’re carrying some hefty credit and consumer debt, a refinance is something to consider. Yes, refinancing your mortgage mid-cycle might mean you lose that ultra-low rate you got a couple years ago, but getting rid of your high-interest debt could save you thousands a year. It may also be the time to have a conversation with your mortgage broker about a transfer. If you got a mortgage prior to 2016, making a switch and resetting your amortization at the rates now may be better than waiting a couple years when your mortgage is up for renewal.

Don’t get hung up on what the rates are doing and where they’re at. There’s lots of things to consider, but fear isn’t one of them.

This article was originally included in the Dominion Lending Centres January 2019 Newsletter.

Canadian Home Sales Fall Further in December

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 16 Jan 2019 16:38:53 GMT

December existing home sales decline for the fourth consecutive month.

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales dipped for the fourth consecutive month, down 2.5% from November to December, capping the weakest annual sales since 2012. According to last week's Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report, housing activity in Canada has fallen by more than the Bank's economists had expected owing to tighter mortgage-qualification restrictions and rising interest rates.

Monthly declines in home sales since September have fully reversed their summer rally and returned monthly sales to near their lowest level since early 2013.

Transactions declined in about 60% of all local markets in December, led by lower activity in Greater Vancouver, Vancouver Island, Ottawa, London & St. Thomas, and Halifax-Dartmouth, together with a regionally diverse mix of other large and medium-sized urban centres.

On a not seasonally adjusted basis, actual activity was down 19% year-over-year in December 2018 and stood almost 12% below the ten-year average for the month. Sales were down from year-ago levels in three-quarters of all local markets, led overwhelmingly by the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, the Okanagan Region, Calgary, Edmonton, the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton-Burlington. Sales had been boosted in December 2017 by homebuyers rushing to purchase before the new federal mortgage stress test took effect at the beginning of this year.

The Bank of Canada forecasts that the housing market will remain soft this year, undermining economic growth as the mortgage stress test has rendered housing unaffordable for many potential homebuyers.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes remained little changed (+0.2%) from November to December, with declines in close to half of all local markets offset by gains in the remainder.

With sales down and new listings steady in December, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 53.3% compared to 54.8% in November. This measure of market balance has remained close to its long-term average of 53.5% since the beginning of 2018.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, about two-thirds of all local markets were in balanced market territory in December 2018.

There were 5.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of December 2018. While this remains close to its long-term average of 5.3 months, the number of months of inventory has swollen far above its long-term average in Prairie provinces as well as in Newfoundland & Labrador. By contrast, the measure remains well below its long-term average in Ontario and Prince Edward Island. In other provinces, sales and inventory are more balanced.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) was up 1.6% y/y in December 2018. The increase is smaller but still broadly in line with y/y gains posted since July.

Following a well-established pattern, condo apartment units posted the largest y/y price gains in December (+4.9%), followed by townhouse/row units (+3.1%). By comparison, two-storey single-family homes posted a small increase (+0.4%) while one-storey single-family home prices eased slightly (-0.3%).

Trends continue to vary widely among the 17 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI. Results were mixed in British Columbia. Prices are now down on a y/y basis in Greater Vancouver (-2.7%) but remain above year-ago levels in the Fraser Valley (+2.5%). Meanwhile, prices posted a y/y increase of 6.4% in Victoria and rose 11% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Among housing markets tracked by the index in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region, MLS® HPI benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in Guelph (+6.8%), the Niagara Region (+6.8%), Hamilton-Burlington (+6.4%), Oakville-Milton (+3.3%) and the GTA (+3%). Home prices in Barrie and District remain slightly below year-ago levels (-1.1%).

Across the Prairies where supply is historically elevated relative to sales, benchmark home prices remained below year-ago levels in Calgary (-3.2%), Edmonton (-2%), Regina (-5.2%) and Saskatoon (-1.2%). The home pricing environment is likely to remain weak in these housing markets until elevated supply reflective of the weak oil market is reduced and becomes more balanced in relation to demand.

Home prices rose 6.9% y/y in Ottawa (led by an 8.3% increase in townhouse/row unit prices), 6% in Greater Montreal (driven by a 9.1% increase in townhouse/row unit prices) and 2.5% in Greater Moncton (led by a 12.2% increase in townhouse/row unit prices). (Table 1, unfortunately, CREA did not update the table with December data as of this writing).

Bottom Line

We are likely in store for a prolonged period of modest housing gains in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, stability or softening in British Columbia and further weakening in the Prairies, Alberta, and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Sluggish sales and modestly rising prices nationally are likely in store for 2019. While there will still be some significant regional divergences, there is no need for further policy actions to affect demand.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper, it was originally posted on her blog and newsletter, but we decided to share it here on our blog as well.

Getting Rid of Your Mortgage

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 15 Jan 2019 21:35:32 GMT

4 strategies to pay off your mortgage.

Mortgages are interesting to say the least. On the one hand it’s mortgages that empower homeownership, while on the other hand, they represent a huge amount of debt. And for most of us, the biggest debt we’ll ever have.

At Canadian Mortgage Experts, we understand that even though you work really hard to qualify for a mortgage, once you have it, you should want to get rid of it as quickly as possible.

So let’s look at four ways you can get rid of your mortgage.

Accelerate Your Payment Frequency

Sounds simple enough, but making the change from a monthly payment to an accelerated bi-weekly payment is one of the easiest ways to turbo-charge the repayment of your mortgage over time. Chances are you won’t even notice a difference.Typically, on monthly payments, your mortgage is split into 12 equal payments. Accelerated bi-weekly payments divide your payments in half, but rather than 24 payments, you make 26. It’s the extra 2 payments each year that accelerate the repayment of your mortgage.

Annual Financial/Mortgage Review

When you signed your original mortgage documents, chances are you locked into a term between 1-10 years. Most Canadians opt for the 5 year term and as such because they feel locked-in, they turn on the auto-pilot and rarely evaluate their mortgage mid-term. An annual mortgage review is a great idea, not because your mortgage has changed, but because most likely your financial situation has. Maybe you’ve gotten a raise at work, received a bonus or family inheritance. In this case you should consider increasing your mortgage payments or make a lump sum payment against the principal balance outstanding.

Call your Canadian Mortgage Expert at Renewal

Did you know that up to three quarters of Canadians simply sign the renewal letter they get from their lender without looking for a better deal? This can be a huge mistake. One of the best ways to make sure you’re paying the least amount of interest over the course of your mortgage, is to make sure that you get the best mortgage product every time you negotiate a new term. When your mortgage is up for renewal, make sure to talk with your Canadian Mortgage Expert. Don’t have one? That’s okay, contact CME directly and we'll help you find a broker near you!

Consider a Reverse Mortgage

Now, a reverse mortgage is still a mortgage, and in no way are we suggesting that it isn’t. However, if you’re in the later years of your life, you have a great deal of home equity, but for any number of reasons you’re struggling to meet the financial obligation of making payments on a standard mortgage, a reverse mortgage might be for you. A reverse mortgage is designed for seniors 55 years and older, requires no income or credit check to qualify and has no regular set repayment. Although a reverse mortgage is still debt, it’s the freedom you get from not making payments that will make you feel like your’e mortgage free.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 9th 2019

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 09 Jan 2019 15:12:25 GMT

Bank of Canada maintains interest rates

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

The global economic expansion continues to moderate, with growth forecast to slow to 3.4 per cent in 2019 from 3.7 per cent in 2018. In particular, growth in the United States remains solid but is expected to slow to a more sustainable pace through 2019. However, there are increasing signs that the US-China trade conflict is weighing on global demand and commodity prices.

Global benchmark prices for oil have been about 25 per cent lower than assumed in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The lower prices primarily reflect sustained increases in US oil supply and, more recently, increased worries about global demand. These worries among market participants have also been reflected in bond and equity markets.

The drop in global oil prices has a material impact on the Canadian outlook, resulting in lower terms of trade and national income. As well, transportation constraints and rising production have combined to push up oil inventories in the west and exert even more downward pressure on Canadian benchmark prices. While price differentials have narrowed in recent weeks following announced mandatory production cuts in Alberta, investment in Canada’s oil sector is projected to weaken further.

These developments are occurring in the context of a Canadian economy that has been performing well overall. Growth has been running close to potential, employment growth has been strong and unemployment is at a 40-year low. Looking ahead, exports and non-energy investment are projected to grow solidly, supported by foreign demand, the CUSMA, the lower Canadian dollar, and federal tax measures targeted at investment.

Meanwhile, consumption spending and housing investment have been weaker than expected as housing markets adjust to municipal and provincial measures, changes to mortgage guidelines, and higher interest rates. Household spending will be dampened further by slow growth in oil-producing provinces. The Bank will continue to monitor these adjustments.

The Bank projects real GDP will grow by 1.7 per cent in 2019, 0.4 percentage points slower than the October outlook. This revised forecast reflects a temporary slowing in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019. This will open up a modest amount of excess capacity, primarily in oil-producing regions. Nevertheless, indicators of demand should start to show renewed momentum in early 2019, leading to above-potential growth of 2.1 per cent in 2020.

Core inflation measures remain clustered close to 2 per cent. As expected, CPI inflation eased to 1.7% in November, due to lower gasoline prices. CPI inflation is projected to edge further down and be below 2 per cent through much of 2019, owing mainly to lower gasoline prices. On the other hand, the lower level of the Canadian dollar will exert some upward pressure on inflation. As these transitory effects unwind and excess capacity is absorbed, inflation will return to around the 2 per cent target by late 2019.

Weighing all of these factors, Governing Council continues to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise over time into a neutral range to achieve the inflation target. The appropriate pace of rate increases will depend on how the outlook evolves, with a particular focus on developments in oil markets, the Canadian housing market, and global trade policy.

INFORMATION NOTE

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 6, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on April 24, 2019.

The remaining announcement dates in 2019 are as follows:

March 6th 2019
April 24th 2019*
May 29th 2019
July 10th 2019*
September 4th 2019
October 30th 2019*
December 4th 2019

* Monetary Policy Report published

To read the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report for January 9th 2019, click here.

Should I Buy in 2019?

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 03 Jan 2019 17:29:01 GMT

Is now a good time to buy a property?

If you've been thinking about buying a new home; whether that be your first home, your next home, your forever home, or your retirement home, with all the negative news leading into 2019 (plummeting house prices and rising interest rates), you might be asking yourself.. is right now a good time to buy a home? Well... what if we told you that was the wrong question?

Inevitably, the media will continue to report that housing prices are ready to skyrocket, while at the same time reporting that they have peaked, while at the same time we should prepare for a housing apocalypse. It's hard to know what is going to happen with the housing market next week, let alone in years to come.

So instead of basing your buying decision on external market factors, consider asking yourself, is now a good time to buy a home for me ?

When you stop looking at the market to determine your timing to buy a home, and instead examine your reasons for buying a home, the picture becomes clearer. Here are some things you should consider, although they are subjective, they are things you can control.

Does buying a new home now put me in a better financial position?
Do I feel comfortable with my current employment status?
Do I make enough money now to afford a new home and still be comfortable?
Have I saved enough money for a downpayment?
How long do I plan on living in this new home?
Is there any scenario where I might have to sell quickly and potentially lose money?
Do I really want to buy, or am I feeling pressure that if I don't buy now, I might never be able to?
Am I scared that if I buy now, the market will crumble the second I do?

Having a plan in place is the best course of action to help you make a good decision. By sitting down with someone to discuss your plans, and to map out what buying a new home looks like for you, you can alleviate a lot of the unknowns. Instead of looking at external market factors, focus on the internal ones. A mortgage preapproval allows you to see what you can actually qualify for. It's the best place to start.

Please contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts, we'd love to work with you, and answer any questions you might have.

Thanks for a great 2018, welcome 2019!

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 31 Dec 2018 18:28:37 GMT

We'd just like to give a huge shout out to all the clients who trusted Canadian Mortgage Experts with mortgage financing in 2018. Thank you!

Although 2018 saw considerable challenges with mortgage qualification, we are so proud of our team of mortgage experts and how they persevered to offer expert counsel to clients and how they fought to get the best mortgages possible.

As a company, we well surpassed a Billion dollars in annual mortgage volume and continued to be the number one franchise with the largest brokerage in Canada.

We look forward to what 2019 will bring as we continue to make decisions we believe best serve our client’s best interests. If you have any questions about your mortgage in 2019, please don’t hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts, we’re committed to your financial success.

Happy new year!

From all of us at CME.

2019 Mortgage Forecasts

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 26 Dec 2018 22:00:34 GMT

The Latest in Mortgage News

We’re about to turn the page on what was a challenging year for the mortgage and housing markets. But so far 2019 isn’t looking like it will be much better.

That’s according to a slew of forecasts that have been released recently, most of which forecast moderating home sales, falling home prices and weaker economic growth that will lead to interest rates flatlining for much of the year.

Here’s a sampling of some of the latest forecasts on where home sales, prices and interest rates are headed in the new year and beyond:

CREA Forecasts Pessimistic Year Ahead for Housing

The Canadian Real Estate Association is forecasting national home sales to post double-digit declines in 2019, falling to the lowest level in five years.

Despite supportive population growth, the association says much of the headwinds are the result of government policy designed to throw cold water on the housing market.

“While economic and demographic fundamentals remain supportive for housing demand in many parts of the country, policy headwinds together with rising interest rates are limiting access to mortgage financing and negatively impacting homebuyer sentiment,” CREA said in its 2019 forecast.

“At the same time, growth in home prices has slowed sharply in some regions. Indeed, home prices are declining in parts of the country where the supply of homes available for purchase is elevated relative to sales,” it added.

British Columbia and Ontario will account for the lion’s share of the national sales decline in 2018. Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador will also fall to multi-year lows. By contrast, activity remains historically strong in Quebec and in the Maritimes, particularly in New Brunswick.

The national average price is projected to ease to $488,600 this year, down 4.2% from 2017.

CMHC: Housing Activity to Moderate in 2019 and 2020

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is also predicting a housing slowdown next year, according to its 2018 Housing Market Outlook .

It expects housing starts to fall to a range of 194,000 to 204,500 units.

“Our key takeaway from this year’s outlook is moderation in Canada’s housing markets for 2019 into 2020,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist. “Housing starts are expected to decline from the higher levels we’ve seen recently. We expect resales in 2019 and 2020 to remain below recent peaks while prices should reach levels that are more in line with economic fundamentals such as income, job and population growth.”

Here are CMHC’s forecasts for select Canadian metro areas:

Metro Vancouver: Lower sales and higher inventories are expected over the next two years, resulting in lower prices compared to market highs.
Toronto: The GTA will see balanced conditions with moderate sales growth and home price growth in line with inflation. Rising homeownership costs are expected to feed a strong rental market.
Calgary: Expected population and employment growth are expected to lift sales in 2019 and 2020, though the average MLS price will continue to face downward pressure before rising again in 2020.
Montreal: Housing starts and sales are to be sustained by rising net migration. Demand for resale single-detached homes are expected to remain relatively strong.

Interest Rate Forecasts for 2019

Falling inflation in both Canada and the U.S., as well as weakening economic forecasts for the year ahead, have led to tempered forecasts for interest rate hikes in 2019.

Just months ago a January hike was all but certain, but the next rate hike is now unlikely until the spring or summer at the earliest, according to rate forecasts.

There are even some, like Capital Economics, who are calling for a rate cut by next December.

“…we think that weak prospects for domestic demand will cause the Bank [of Canada] to remain on hold for most of 2019, before cutting rates at the tail end of next year,” reads the Canada Economic Outlook report.

In the B.C. Real Estate Association’s latest Mortgage Rate Forecast , it forecasts the BoC will be forced to scale back its rate-hike plans, and will now take until 2020 to raise its overnight target rate from the current 1.75% to 2.50%.

“We expect the bank will at most be able to raise its policy rate twice next year, though we are leaning toward a single rate hike as the most likely outcome,” reads the report. “Variable rates may rise modestly with a higher prime rate, while 5-year fixed rates will likely remain relatively flat and may even decline in the first quarter of 2019.” The association foresees the average 5-year fixed rate to drop to 3.64% in the first quarter of 2019, before rising to 3.74% by Q2.

Real Estate Firms Expect Modest Home Price Growth in 2019

Two separate forecasts from real estate brokerages Royal LePage and Re/Max are both forecasting modest house price increases next year.

Royal LePage expects the median home price to grow by 1.2% next year, with prices in the Greater Toronto Area to rise 1.3% to an average of $854,552. In Vancouver, prices are forecast to rise just 0.6% to $1.29 million, while prices in Montreal are forecast to record the largest increase by rising 3% to an average of $421,306.

The national housing market will remain in a “correctional cycle,” with home prices rising at a “snail’s pace,” said CEO Phil Soper.

Re/Max, meanwhile, is forecasting home sales to rise an average of 1.7% nationally. The largest increases are expected in London, ON (+17%), Chilliwack, B.C. (+13%) and Windsor, ON (+13%).

Re/Max’s annual report also expects that first-time buyers will “dominate” the housing market in 2019, with young couples and families focusing on condos and townhomes in the $350,000 to $500,000 price range.

This article was written by Steve Huebl and was originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends blog on December 21st 2018.

Canadian Home Sales Weakened Further in November

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 17 Dec 2018 17:04:14 GMT

November existing home sales decline for third consecutive month.

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales dipped for the third consecutive month, down 2.3% from October to November and down a whopping 12.6% year-over-year. Transactions declined in just over half of all local markets, with lower activity in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA) and Hamilton-Burlington offsetting increased sales in Edmonton. Sales were down from year-ago levels in three-quarters of all local markets, including the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Calgary, the GTA and Hamilton-Burlington.

These data suggest a double-digit national sales decline in 2018, falling to its lowest level in five years even though the economy is reaching full employment. Next year's growth in sales and prices will likely be moderated by recent policy changes from different levels of government, in addition to upward pressure on interest rates.

Many had expected a rebound in sales in British Columbia, but so far it has not materialized. The rebound in sales in Ontario last summer has now run its course and activity in Alberta has edged lower. Housing transactions in Quebec, in contrast, were strong.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes fell by 3.3% between October and November, with new supply declining in roughly 70% of all local markets.

With new listings having declined by more than sales in November, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened slightly to 54.8% compared to 54.2% in October. This measure of market balance has remained close to its long-term average of 53.4% since the beginning of 2018.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, about 60% of all local markets were in balanced market territory in November 2018. There were 5.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2018. While this remains in line with its long-term average of 5.3 months, the number of months of inventory is well above its long-term average in the Prairie provinces as well as in Newfoundland & Labrador. By contrast, the measure is well below its long-term average in Ontario, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. In other provinces, sales and inventory are more balanced.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) was up 2.3% y/y in October 2018, down once again on a month-over-month basis.

Following a well-established pattern, condo apartment units posted the largest year-over-year price gains in November (+6%), followed by townhouse/row units (+4%). By comparison, one-storey single-family homes posted a modest increase (+0.4%) while two-storey single-family home prices held steady (+0.1%).

Trends continue to vary widely among the 17 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI. In British Columbia, home price gains have been steadily diminishing on a y/y basis in the Fraser Valley (+4.7%) and Victoria (+7.2%). By contrast, price gains picked up elsewhere on Vancouver Island (+12.6%) and, for the first time in five years, were down (-1.4%) from year-ago levels in the GVA. On a month-over-month basis, prices fell 1.9% in Greater Vancouver in November, the most since 2008, adding to the recent series of price declines in Canada's most expensive housing market.

Among housing markets tracked by the index in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region, MLS® HPI benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in Guelph (+9.3%), the Niagara Region (+7.2%), Hamilton-Burlington (+6.3%), Oakville-Milton (+3.4%) and the GTA (+2.7%). Meanwhile, home prices in Barrie and District remain below year-ago levels (-2.1%).

Across the Prairies, benchmark home prices remained below year-ago levels in Calgary (-2.9%), Edmonton (-1.9%), Regina (-4%) and Saskatoon (-0.3%). Excess supply of listings relative to demand will continue to put downward pressure on prices until economic activity in the region strengthens.

In contrast, home prices rose 6.6% y/y in Ottawa (led by a 7.3% increase in two-storey single-family home prices), 6.2% in Greater Montreal (driven by a 9.4% increase in townhouse/row unit prices) and 4.2% in Greater Moncton (led by an 11.2% increase in townhouse/row unit prices). (Table 1)

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in November 2018 was just over $488,000, down 2.9% from the same month last year.

Sales in Greater Vancouver and the GTA, two of Canada’s most active and expensive markets, bias upward heavily skew the national average price. Excluding these two markets from calculations cuts almost $110,000 from the national average price, trimming it to just over $378,000.

The Canadian housing market has slowed considerably since mid-2017 and is ending the year on a quiet note. Two offsetting forces are impacting housing—strong population growth and rising rates. Sluggish sales and modestly rising prices nationally are likely in store for 2019. While there will still be some significant regional divergences, there is no need for further policy actions to affect demand.

The foundation of your construction mortgage

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 11 Dec 2018 17:41:36 GMT

It can be a real process finding the perfect home that fits all your needs. And for some, the market doesn’t offer them anything they want. Instead, they’ve got their own idea of their ideal home and they want to build it from the ground up. It’s certainly a reasonable option, but there are some things you need to know related to financing before you dive into construction.

Raw land usually comes in two forms; serviced lots and un-serviced lots. In order to buy a lot, you will need between 25% and 50% down.

To qualify for a mortgage you’ll need:

To complete a mortgage application
You need to provide credit bureaus and income documents showing that you qualify for the amount of money you wish to borrow.
You need to provide a detailed construction budget.
You need to submit a copy of the purchase agreement, including all addendums and amendments.
Builder information and resume (if requested) and project contract
Full set of legible construction drawings scaled to legal size paper or smaller
HPO registration (Home Owner Protection forms or registration of new home)
You base the amount to be borrowed on the appraisal based on a completed project

The budget is the most important piece of information that the lender wants to see. It should include “hard” and “soft” costs. There is usually “reserve” money set aside to ensure there is enough money in the anticipated event of over budget costs. The reserve money is usually 10%-25% cash flow based on the budget for the project. This is on top of the down payment.

Examples of Soft costs:

Building Permits
Course of Construction Insurance
Engineering Reports
Legal Costs
New Home Warranty

Examples of hard costs:

Demolition
Excavation
Damp proofing/Backfilling
Concrete Slab/Basement

Lumber/Framing
Exterior & Garage Doors
Roofing
Windows & Skylights

Lenders will lend up to a maximum amount determined by the guidelines of the individual lender.

For example, based on the lender loaning up to 75% of the total cost (with 25% down):

Land purchase price (as is) $200,000

Total soft and hard costs $400,000

Total Cost (as complete) $600,000 x 75% = $450,000 available to loan

Keep in mind, the lender will also consider the appraised value of the finished product. In this example, the completed appraised value of the home would have to be at least $600,000 to qualify for the amount available to loan. The appraised value is determined before the project begins.

Construction loans are released in draws (guidelines are based on the lender). Between Draws, there is an appraisal/progress report that is ordered by the lender. This is at the client’s cost. These reports are usually around $200 per report, depending on the appraiser.

There are a couple more things to consider.

Construction loans are usually fully opened and can be repaid at any time. And the interest is charged only on amounts drawn. Once construction is complete and project completion has been verified by the lender, the construction mortgage is “moved over” to a normal mortgage.

A lender will always take into consideration the marketability of a property. They will look at not only the location based on demographic but also the location based on geography. For instance, a lot that is in a secluded area where no sales of lots have occurred in the last five years and mostly consisting of rock face may not be a property that they are willing to lend on.

Construction mortgages can be more complicated than a conventional mortgage, but your mortgage broker can help you stick handle through the process from construction financing to mortgage financing. Contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts for more information.

This article was originally included in the December 2018 DLC Newsletter.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 5th, 2018

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 05 Dec 2018 15:09:02 GMT

"Household credit and regional housing markets appear to be stabilizing following a significant slowdown in recent quarters."

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

The global economic expansion is moderating largely as expected, but signs are emerging that trade conflicts are weighing more heavily on global demand. Recent encouraging developments at the G20 meetings are a reminder that there are upside as well as downside risks around trade policy. Growth in major advanced economies has slowed, although activity in the United States remains above potential.

Oil prices have fallen sharply since the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), reflecting a combination of geopolitical developments, uncertainty about global growth prospects, and expansion of U.S. shale oil production. Benchmarks for western Canadian oil – both heavy and, more recently, light – have been pulled down even further by transportation constraints and a buildup of inventories. In light of these developments and associated cutbacks in production, activity in Canada’s energy sector will likely be materially weaker than expected.

The Canadian economy as a whole grew in line with the Bank’s projection in the third quarter, although data suggest less momentum going into the fourth quarter. Business investment fell in the third quarter, in large part due to heightened trade uncertainty during the summer. Business investment outside the energy sector is expected to strengthen with the signing of the USMCA, new federal government tax measures, and ongoing capacity constraints. Along with strong foreign demand, this increase in productive capacity should support continued growth in exports.

Household credit and regional housing markets appear to be stabilizing following a significant slowdown in recent quarters. The Bank continues to monitor the impact on both builders and buyers of tighter mortgage rules, regional housing policy changes, and higher interest rates.

Inflation has been evolving as expected and the Bank’s core measures are all tracking 2 per cent, consistent with an economy that has been operating close to its capacity. CPI inflation, at 2.4 per cent in October, is just above target but is expected to ease in coming months by more than the Bank had previously forecast, due to lower gasoline prices. Downward historical revisions by Statistics Canada to GDP, together with recent macroeconomic developments, indicate there may be additional room for non-inflationary growth. The Bank will reassess all of these factors in its new projection for the January MPR.

Weighing all of these developments, Governing Council continues to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise into a neutral range to achieve the inflation target. The appropriate pace of rate increases will depend on a number of factors. These include the effect of higher interest rates on consumption and housing, and global trade policy developments. The persistence of the oil price shock, the evolution of business investment, and the Bank’s assessment of the economy’s capacity will also factor importantly into our decisions about the future stance of monetary policy.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 9, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

Here are the announcement dates set for 2019.

January 9th 2019*
March 6th 2019
April 24th 2019*
May 29th 2019
July 10th 2019*
September 4th 2019
October 30th 2019*
December 4th 2019

* Monetary Policy Report published

Is It Time For a Mortgage Checkup?

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 04 Dec 2018 17:38:53 GMT

It’s coming up on the end of the year. It’s most likely been another busy year for you; when is it not right? While there’s so much to do as we get into the holiday spirit, this is a great time to reflect on your finances, more specifically your mortgage. Maybe you’ve had your mortgage for a couple years and it’s not top of mind. But things have not only changed in the mortgage industry, but also likely your own finances.

If you’re paying more than four per cent on any debts, now’s the time to look and possibly refinance the debt into your mortgage.

Mortgage Brokers work on so many files where people don’t realize their consumer debt is handcuffing and limiting them on what they’re able to do.

Their clients are concerned they’ll pay a penalty to refinance or lose their rate, but they don’t look at the long-term picture and realize how much they can save.

Yes, it’s gotten harder to refinance with all the government regulations and stress tests, but it can be done and it might save you money. Just remember, if you do decide get rid of the consumer debt, you need to make sure you don’t go down that hole again.

Once you’ve consolidated, look at your trade lines and keep what you need, not what you want and change spending behaviors where you can.

If you’re feeling good about your financial situation and have a little extra cash each month, consider your payment privileges.

If you do have pre-payment privileges, accelerated payments are fantastic if you use them.

A full-frill mortgage product could have a number of pre-payment privileges including accelerated payments of up to 20 per cent of your monthly payment, double monthly payments, and annual payments of up to 20 per cent of the full loan amount.

You might be surprised how much time you can knock off your mortgage by accelerated payments.

For example, on a 30-year mortgage, a one-time 10 per cent increase on your monthly payment can shave four years off your mortgage. If you bumped up your payment by 10 per cent each year, you would be mortgage free in 13 years. If 10 per cent is too high, five per cent gets you mortgage free in 18 years.

These are just a couple ways a mortgage checkup can help save you some money and get you on the right path for 2019.

If you'd like to discuss your options - any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts would love to help!

This article was included in the December 2019 DLC Newsletter.

Q3 Canadian GDP Growth Slowed On The Back of Weak Housing and Business Investment

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 30 Nov 2018 17:03:27 GMT

Canadian Economy grew at a 2% annual rate in Q3, as expected

This morning, Stats Canada released the third quarter GDP figures indicating an expected slowdown to 2.0% growth (all figures quoted in annual rates), compared to a 2.9% pace in Q2. Over the first three quarters of this year, quarterly growth has averaged 2.2% which is down from the 3.0% annual growth recorded in 2017. The Canadian economy is at or near full capacity, so slower growth is not a bad thing.

However, while the headline growth of 2.0% was on trend, the details of the report are troubling. The bulk of the growth last quarter came from a contraction in imports--hardly a sign of a robust economy--leaving final domestic demand--which excludes trade--negative for the first time since early 2016. The softness in imports reflected a contraction in refined energy products as well as aircraft and other transportation equipment.

The NAFTA trade battle over the summer took its toll on the economy as households and businesses sharply curtailed their spending. Consumer spending grew at its slowest pace in more than two years, while businesses posted an unexpected drop in investment and trimmed inventories. Consumer spending moderated, as overall household consumption rose just 1.2%, held back by durable goods spending (-2.7%) as Canadians bought fewer vehicles for a third straight quarter.

The biggest surprise in the report was the sharp decline in non-residential business investment (-7.1%). Spending on non-residential structures fell 5.2%, while machinery and equipment spending, which includes computer software and hardware, plunged at a 9.8% annual rate. Business spending was weighed down by softer oil and gas investment.

Though residential investment was expected to decline, the reported 5.9% drop in Q3 was more significant than expected. Despite an uptick in home sales activity, residential investment weakened as both new construction of housing and renovation activity pulled back (see Note below). Investment in new residential construction posted its largest decline since the second quarter of 2009 when the financial crisis was hammering the global economy. The uptick in home sales was reflected in a sharp uptick in ownership transfer costs, which includes real estate commissions, land transfer taxes, legal fees and file review costs (inspection and surveying).

On the income side, compensation of employees rose 2.7% (4.0% on a year-on-year basis), leaving overall wage gains over the quarter at a modest 2.2% year-on-year. The household savings rate rose to 4.0% from an upwardly revised 3.4% in Q1.

Looking at the monthly data for September, there was not much momentum going into the final quarter of this year. Monthly GDP in September declined -0.1% as just half of major industries expanded. It was mainly down in goods production (-0.7%) as oil and gas extraction pulled back, hit in part by maintenance work. Substantial gains in services (+0.2%) were not enough to keep the headline in positive territory.

The projected further weakening in Q4 will be abetted by the transitory downward impact from the recent postal strike. The risks are on the downside for the Bank of Canada's forecast of 2.3% growth in the final quarter of this year. Currently, it appears that growth in Q4 will be closer to 1% than 2%.

Implications for the Bank of Canada

The headline 2% growth rate was spot on the Bank of Canada's expectation, but certainly, the Bank will note the weakness in the underlying data. Potentially more important is the deep reduction in the price of oil for Canadian producers already struggling with transportation bottlenecks that have been pummelling the energy sector and depressing growth in Alberta. Cuts in oil production are likely to hit economic activity in the current quarter, with a full recovery not expected until at least mid-2019.

As well, the GM shutdown in Oshawa, Ontario raises concerns about the viability of the Canadian auto industry and adds to the weakness in the economic outlook. The two largest export sectors in Canada are energy and autos, so weakness in these sectors will keep the Bank of Canada on the sidelines in December, notably as consumers may well be tapped out. Markets had been expecting a rate hike in January, but the latest data suggest that the prospects of such a move have dropped significantly.

Notes:

*Housing investment in the GDP accounts is technically called "Gross fixed capital formation in residential structures". It includes three major elements:

new residential construction;
renovations; and
ownership transfer costs.

New residential construction is the most significant component. Renovations to existing residential structures are the second largest element of housing investment. Ownership transfer costs include all costs associated with the transfer of a residential asset from one owner to another. These costs are as follows:

real estate commissions;
land transfer taxes;
legal costs (fees paid to notaries, surveyors, experts, etc.); and
file review costs (inspection and surveying).

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper and originally shared on her newsletter subscription, but we like Dr. Sherry and thought we'd share the love here on our blog. Have a fabulous day!

What is Mortgage Fraud

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 27 Nov 2018 00:10:51 GMT

How to protect yourself when purchasing or refinancing a home

Have you ever wondered about how to protect yourself from mortgage fraud? Although the chances of you becoming a victim of mortgage fraud is relatively small, if you do become a victim, it will certainly have a long lasting negative impact on your life. So best to be aware of the warning signs. So here’s some information from the Government of Canada provided through the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation that outlines mortgage fraud, and what you can do to protect yourself.

Beware of promises of “easy money” in real estate. Consumers who knowingly misrepresent information when buying or refinancing a home are committing mortgage fraud.

What is mortgage fraud?

Mortgage fraud occurs when someone deliberately misrepresents information to obtain mortgage financing that would not have been granted if the truth had been known. This can include:

Misstating your position or inflating your income or length of service at your job.
Misrepresenting the amount and/or source of your down payment.
Purchasing a rental property and misrepresenting it as owner-occupied.
Not disclosing existing mortgage and/or debt obligations.
Misrepresenting property details or omitting information in order to inflate the property value.
Adding co-borrowers who will not be residing in the home and do not intend to take responsibility for the mortgage.
Another common form of fraud is when a con artist convinces someone with good credit to act as a “straw buyer”.

A straw buyer is someone who agrees to put his or her name on a mortgage application on behalf of another person. In return for their participation, straw buyers may be offered cash or promised high returns when the property is sold. Often, straw buyers are deceived into believing they will not be responsible for the mortgage payments.

Consequences of misrepresentation

Borrowers who misrepresent information and straw buyers who allow a property to be purchased in their name are committing mortgage fraud and will be liable for any financial shortfall in the event of default. They may also be held criminally responsible for their misrepresentation.

What can you do to protect yourself?

To protect yourself and your family from becoming victims of, or accomplices to mortgage fraud, be an informed consumer. This means:

Never deliberately misrepresent information when applying for a mortgage.
Never accept money, guarantee a loan or add your name to a mortgage unless you fully intend to purchase the property. If you allow your personal information to be used for a mortgage, even for a brief period, you could be held responsible for the entire debt even after the property is sold.
Always know who you are doing business with. Use licensed or accredited mortgage and real estate professionals.
Never sign legal documents without reading them thoroughly and being sure you understand them. If uncertain, obtain a second legal opinion or, if necessary, the services of a translator.
Get independent legal advice from your own lawyer / notary. Talk to your lawyer / notary about title insurance and other alternative methods of protection.
Your lawyer will advise you if anyone other than the seller has a financial interest in the home or if there are any outstanding liens or tax arrears.
Contact the local provincial Land Titles Office to obtain the sales history of any property you are thinking about buying, and consider having it inspected and appraised. An accredited appraiser will provide the property sales and MLS history.
If a deposit is required, make sure the funds are payable to and held “in trust” by the vendor’s realty company or a lawyer / notary.
Be wary of anyone who approaches you with an offer to make “easy money” in real estate. Remember: if a deal sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

There are also simple steps you can take to protect yourself from another common form of fraud: identity theft. These include:

Never give out your personal information until you know who you are dealing with and how your information will be used. This includes requests for information in person, by mail, or over the phone or Internet.
Never reply to e-mails or phone calls that ask for your banking information, credit card details, passwords or other personal or sensitive information, particularly if you did not initiate the exchange.
Review your mail, bank statements and other financial statements on a regular basis to look for any inconsistencies. If you do not receive a bill on time, follow up with your creditors or service providers. You may also wish to contact your local Postal Outlet to ensure your mail has not been held or re-routed.
Shred or destroy all personal and financial documents before you throw them away.
Obtain and verify your credit report at least annually by contacting Canada’s two credit-reporting agencies: Equifax Canada at www.equifax.ca and TransUnion Canada at www.transunion.ca .

Reporting fraud

If you suspect that you or someone you know has been the victim of mortgage fraud, please contact your local police department or The Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre.

On-line: www.antifraudcentre-centreantifraude.ca
Toll Free: 1-888-495-8501
Toll Free Fax: 1-888-654-9426

To find out more about mortgage fraud, visit the fraud prevention section of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP) website at http://mortgageconsumer.org/protect-yourself-from-real-estate-fraud .

This article was originally published on the CMHC website here.

The Young And The Mortgage (less)

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 21 Nov 2018 00:00:00 GMT

For many young people, the idea of homeownership can feel out of reach, if not a daunting proposition. They know they want the dream of homeownership, but they’re not sure how to get there. Especially when it comes to financing and getting a mortgage. The good news: There’s so much information and so many professionals out there to lend a hand.

If you’re a young first time homebuyer, there are a few things to consider as you get ready for your journey.

It’s important for young people to know as first-time homebuyers they have certain privileges of which they can take advantage.

First-time homebuyers:

are exempt from property transfer taxes on a home less than $500,000
can use $25,000 from their RRSPs for a down payment and pay it back within 15 years
Need only five per cent as a down payment

If you’re a couple going into your first purchase together, use one as a guarantor. A guarantor guarantees payments will be made, but they have no claim to the property and they are not on the title. This means they also aren’t using their first-time homebuyer status and can save it for a second purchase down the road.

There are also some common misconceptions, or mistakes, young people tend to make as first-time homebuyers.

Newbies to real estate tend to want to try and save up for a larger down payment. But they’ll do so at the expense of paying off their existing debts. Instead of trying to put 10 per cent down, put down five per cent and take that extra money to pay off consumer debt, like credit cards and car payments.

Speaking of debt, a lot of young people will find themselves with student loans to pay back. While it’s always good to pay off as much as you can, they may not be as big of an albatross as you think, provided it’s not reported on your credit bureau. Every lender calculates student loan payments differently, which may or may not hurt your chances of getting a mortgage. But you are better off focusing on your unsecured lines of credit or credit cards before tackling your student loans.

Let’s face it, applying for a mortgage can be intimidating. You’re baring your financial soul to strangers who determine whether your dream will actually come true.

But your mortgage broker is there to help. They work for you, not the other way around.

The mortgage broker is the professional, but you’re the boss. Ask questions and be comfortable in what you’re being told.

You’re doing a disservice to yourself if you accept anything less than excellent communication and customer service.

This article was originally published as part of the DLC Newsletter in November of 2018.

Canadian Home Sales Weakened In October

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 16 Nov 2018 15:12:16 GMT

Canadian home sales decline for the second consecutive month in October.

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales declined for the second consecutive month in October, edging back by 1.6% month-over-month (m/m) and down 3.7% from year-ago levels. Year-over-year sales in October are now about in line with their 10-year monthly average (see chart below). Existing home sales activity has picked up from levels early this year, but it is still considerably below the boom days of 2016 and early-2017 before the foreign purchase tax was introduced in Ontario (in April 2017), the new OSFI rules were implemented (in January 2018), and Bank of Canada tightening gained momentum.

Home transactions last month declined in more than half of all local markets, led by Hamilton-Burlington, Montreal and Edmonton. Although activity did improve modestly in many markets, it was offset by a decline in sales elsewhere by a factor of two. On a year-over-year (y/y) basis, sales were down in slightly more than half of all local markets as lower sales in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley more than offset the rise in sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Montreal by a wide margin.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes edged down 1.1% between September and October, led by the GTA, Calgary and Victoria. The decline in new supply among these markets more than offset an increase in new supply in Edmonton and Greater Vancouver.

As for the balance between sales and listings, the national sales-to-new listings ratio in October came in at 54.2% — close to September's reading of 54.4% and its long-term average of 53.4%. Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, about two-thirds of all local markets were in balanced market territory in October 2018.

There were 5.3 months of unsold inventory on a national basis at the end of October 2018. While this remains in line with its long-term national average, the number of months of inventory is well above its long-term average in the Prairie provinces and in Newfoundland & Labrador, where downward pressure on home prices is likely to continue. By contrast, Ontario and Prince Edward Island are the two provinces where the measure remains more than one standard deviation below its long-term average pointing to stable prices or modest gains. In other provinces, the number of months of inventory is closer to its long-term average and suggests that sales and inventory are well balanced.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) was up 2.3% y/y in October 2018 with similar gains posted in each of the three previous months.

Following a well-established pattern, condo apartment units posted the largest y/y price gains in October (+7.4%), followed by townhouse/row units (+3.9%). By comparison, one-storey single-family homes posted a modest increase (+0.6%) while two-storey single-family home prices held steady.

Trends continue to vary widely among the 17 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI. In British Columbia, home price gains have been diminishing on a y/y basis (Greater Vancouver: +1%; Fraser Valley: +6.8%; Victoria +8.5%; elsewhere on Vancouver Island: +11.8%). Vancouver’s market balance is the weakest in almost six years, and prices for both condos and single-detached homes are now falling outright (the former were previously sturdy).

By contrast, MLS® HPI benchmark price comparisons are improving on a y/y basis among housing markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region of Ontario that are tracked by the index. Home prices were up from year-ago levels in Guelph (+9.3%), Hamilton-Burlington (+6.8%), the Niagara Region (+6.3%), the GTA (+2.6%) and Oakville-Milton (+2.2%). While home prices in Barrie and District remain slightly below year-ago levels (-0.9%), declines there are shrinking; if current price momentum persists, home prices in December are on track to turn positive compared to December 2017.

Across the Prairies, benchmark home prices remained below year-ago levels in Calgary (-2.6%), Edmonton (-2.4%), Regina (-3.6%) and Saskatoon (-0.9%).

Home prices rose by 6.6% y/y in Ottawa (led by a 7.4% increase in two-storey single-family home prices), by 6.3% in Greater Montreal (driven by a 9.8% increase in townhouse/row unit prices) and by 4.2% in Greater Moncton (led by a 12.4% increase in townhouse/row unit prices) (see table below).

Bottom Line

Housing markets continue to adjust to regulatory and government tightening as well as to higher mortgage rates. The speculative frenzy has cooled, and multiple bidding situations are no longer commonplace in Toronto and surrounding areas. The housing markets in the GGH appear to have bottomed. However, prices still look soggy at the higher end of the single-family home market.

The slowdown in housing markets in the Lower Mainland of BC accelerated last month as the sector continues to reverberate from provincial actions to dampen activity, as well as the broader regulatory changes and higher interest rates.

We are likely in store for a prolonged period of modest housing gains in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, stability or softening in British Columbia and further weakening in the Prairies, Albert, and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Montreal and Ottawa remain the areas of relative strength among the biggest cities. Sales dipped in both cities month-over-month in October, but they are both up a solid 11% from a year ago. In Montreal, we’ve seen some evidence that increased foreign buying activity is mixing with strong domestic fundamentals, pushing benchmark prices up 6.3% y/y. Ottawa has been boosted by a wave a federal government spending and hiring, with price growth similarly running at 6.6% y/y, though now softening from its recent high.

The Bank of Canada is expected to continue gradually tightening monetary policy. Residential mortgage credit growth has slowed to a 17-year low and, for the first time in a decade, borrowers will be refinancing 5-year fixed rate mortgages at higher interest rates.

Bank Of Canada Reports Dramatic Drop in Highly Indebted Borrowers

In a separate report, the Bank of Canada announced this week that the quality of new mortgage lending in Canada had improved markedly owing to tighter mortgage qualification rules and higher interest rates, both of which have pushed marginal buyers out of the market. This was Ottawa's intention all along in its multiple initiatives to dampen the housing market over the past several years.

The share of new mortgages going to highly indebted borrowers--those with loan-to-income ratios of above 450%--dropped to 13% in the second quarter of this year, down from more than 18% last year. Hence, the Bank believes that there is strengthening resiliency in the financial system, aided in part by an improving economy that has prompted five rate increases since the middle of last year.

The Bank of Canada report on the mortgage market found that not only are the number of new mortgage borrowers declining, but the riskiest ones are being weeded out. The number of new uninsured borrowers considered highly-indebted fell by 39% in the second quarter from year-ago levels, with Toronto posting the most significant declines.

The Bank also commented that the tighter regulations have had one side effect--shifting market share away from the country’s six biggest banks to other institutions such as credit unions and private lenders, which they see as a potential new source of risk. The overall riskiness of new mortgages has decreased “because the proportion of risky borrowers has declined across cities,” the report found. “As well, the regional composition has shifted, with a somewhat larger share of new mortgages recently coming from areas outside Toronto and Vancouver.”

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC's chief economist. It was published as part of her newsletter subscription on Nov 15th 2018.

Using Your Pre-Payment Privileges

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 13 Nov 2018 15:50:08 GMT

You could say a mortgage has a personality. While it might seem like an unusual way to describe what is basically a financial transaction, it’s actually apt. Mortgages do have personalities. That’s because there are so many details and aspects to any mortgage. And if you’re about to sign on the dotted line, it’s important to get to know the personality of the mortgage before you do.

One feature of a mortgage is accelerated payments, or pre-payment privileges.

Before we get into all the great things that can come from accelerated payments, you need to know that not every mortgage will have pre-payment privileges. It comes back to the mortgage personality; no-frill mortgages that have super low rates may seem tempting, but you probably won’t get other benefits, like pre-payment privileges. You need to make sure your mortgage broker explains all the personalities of your mortgage.

If you do have these pre-payment privileges, accelerated payments are fantastic if you use them.

You might be surprised how much time you can knock off your mortgage by accelerated payments.

Making a double mortgage payment once a year can also cut four years off your mortgage.

Don’t forget, anything you put down also goes directly to the principal of the mortgage rather than the interest.

If you’re signing on to a new mortgage, you might be thinking of a short amortization period, like 10 years, because you don’t want to be making mortgage payments well into your golden years. No one really does. But that’s where accelerated payments can pick up the slack.

Instead, it’s worth considering taking that 25 or 30-year mortgage and using accelerated payments to make up the difference.

If life throws you a curveball and you’re in a short amortization period like 10 years, you may find yourself stretching to make payments.

Rather than setting a shorter amortization and a payment you’re contracted to make, use pre-payment privileges and accelerated payments to get the amortization you can control, rather than the payments controlling you.

While the benefits are literally in front of your face, statistically, not many people will choose to make accelerated payments once the mortgage gets going. If you really want to take advantage, set up accelerated payments the day you sign your mortgage.

Your mortgage broker can give you all the details you needs to make the best decision.

This article was originally published as part of the DLC Newsletter in November of 2018.

The Latest in Mortgage News – What the Stats are Telling Us

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 07 Nov 2018 16:20:54 GMT

A number of reports and surveys have been released over the past couple of weeks providing insight into everything from borrowing trends and consumers’ financial health to the current state of the real estate market.

Here’s a recap of some of the most recent data releases:

One Fifth of GTA Refi Deals Now Through Private Lending

Higher interest rates and tougher mortgage rules are causing Toronto homeowners to turn to private lenders in growing numbers.

A full 20% of refinancing mortgage deals in Q2 went through private lenders, according to a report from Toronto brokerage Realosophy and Teranet. That’s a 67% increase over the last two years.

In dollar figures, private lending grew to $1.5 billion in Q2 from $920 million over the same period.

The largest demographic segment using private financing is Generation X (those in their 30s and 40s), comprising 42% of all private mortgage transactions.

“ A portion of this increase may be driven by owners who prefer to do major renovations to their existing home vs. upsizing to another house,” the report hypothesizes. “Private lenders are often more willing than traditional banks to provide construction financing. But another possible explanation is that private debt is being used to help finance existing real estate investments — an explanation that is supported by the fact that the growth in private financing was highest in municipalities that had the highest rate of investor demand.”

CMHC: Canadian Housing Market Remains “Highly Vulnerable”

Despite easing home prices, Canada’s housing market remains “highly vulnerable,” the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) warned in its latest quarterly report .

It noted that stricter mortgage rules, rising interest rates and smaller growth in inflation-adjusted disposable income have resulted in a decline in housing demand and falling prices.

Even so, markets such as Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria and Hamilton still have “a high degree of vulnerability” as a result of imbalances in the housing market, which it attributes to overbuilding, overvaluation, overheating and price acceleration.

The report draws attention to Winnipeg, which it says is particularly concerning as inventory of newly completed but unsold units has been accumulating over the past two quarters.

Montreal, too, is witnessing a resale market that is “close to overheating” as demand outstrips supply, the report notes.

Toronto Home Prices Inch Upwards as Vancouver Sales Plummet

The Toronto Real Estate Board reported that the average selling price in Canada’s largest city rose 1% from September to a seasonally adjusted $810,881 in October. The benchmark price is up 2.6% from this time last year.

New listings were down 2.7% from a year ago, which supports the view that the market could tighten as a result of the lack of supply.

“A strong regional economy and steady population growth will continue to support the demand for housing ownership as we move into 2019,” board President Garry Bhaura said in the report.

Meanwhile in Vancouver, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported a 34.9% year-over-year decrease in home sales from October 2017. Since last month sales have increased 23.3%.

With sales down, the supply of homes in Greater Vancouver is reaching historical highs, up 7.4% from last year.

“The supply of homes for sale today is beginning to return to levels that we haven’t seen in our market in about four years,” Phil Moore, REBGV president said. “For homebuyers, this means you have more selection to choose from. For sellers, it means your home may face more competition from other listings in the marketplace.”

Home prices in the region are down between 3% and 5%, depending on the housing type, since June.

Concerning Stats on HELOC Usage

The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada provided some statistics on how Canadians are using their Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) during a speech by FCAC Commissioner Lucie Tedesco at the National Mortgage Conference in Montreal.

Here are some of the agency’s findings:

In 2016, of the ~3 million HELOC accounts held by Canadians, 80% were held under readvanceable mortgages. “Since then, this type of mortgage has steadily increased in popularity,” said Tedesco.
25% of HELOC holders are only paying the interest on their HELOCs most months.
- 62% of this group said they planned on paying off their HELOCs over five years. “This seems overly optimistic, considering that the average HELOC balance is $70,000,” Tedesco added. “Clearly, there is a need to strengthen the financial literacy of consumers in general and, specifically, in regard to HELOCs.”

Canadians Stressing Out Over Finances

The percentage of Canadians stressing out over their finances is reaching a boiling point, according to a new survey from Capital One Canada and Credit Canada Debt Solutions.

A full 30% of those surveyed cited financial stress as a larger worry than their overall health, with 44% saying it’s impacting their mental health.

“These results demonstrate that most Canadians worry about their finances every day for about an hour, which is equivalent to the amount of time we spend eating,” said Laurie Campbell, Credit Canada’s CEO.

Some additional findings:

76% of Canadians have missed out on special experiences to save money
56% say they’re willing to make drastic sacrifices to become debt-free
60% reported taking steps to alleviate their financial stress

This article was written by Steve Huebl and originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends here on November 6th 2018.

September 2018 | DLC Top Performers Awards

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 05 Nov 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Canadian Mortgage Experts is proud to announce the September 2018 line-up of top performing brokers.

These brokers have placed in the Top 50 of Dominion Lending Centres nationally, ranked in Total Monthly Revenue and Mortgages Funded Monthly. Congratulations to Christian Amurao, Jeff Ingram and Joel Olson for their outstanding accomplishments!

Jobless Rate Falls in Canada, But Wage Growth Slows

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Fri, 02 Nov 2018 17:09:43 GMT

Canadian Jobless Rate Fell To 40-Year Lows

Canada posted moderate employment gains as the unemployment rate dipped once again to historically low levels, which was the result of fewer people look for work. Despite very tight labour markets and rising job vacancy rates, wage growth weakened in October.

Statistics Canada released data today that showed a moderate 11.2k gain in employment, but also a falling labour force, which was down 18.2k. In consequence, the jobless rate fell back to 5.8% in October, matching a four-decade low. This is consistent with just under 2% economic growth as the Bank of Canada expects. This modest gain in employment suggests the Bank will hold interest rates steady in December, especially given that wage gains have slowed for the fifth consecutive month.

Continuing the see-saw pattern of late, full-time employment was in the driver's seat, with 33.9k net positions added. Part-time work fell 22.6k. The overall gains were driven by the private sector (+20.3k) as public sector employment pulled back (-30.8k), leaving a 21.8k gain in self-employment.

These indicators are consistent with business surveys that are getting louder in their complaints that it’s difficult to find workers. But there is little evidence that firms are offering better pay to attract and retain employees. Wages were up 2.2% from a year ago, the slowest pace in more than a year and down from as high as 3.9% earlier this year. Wage gains for permanent workers were 1.9%, also the slowest in more than a year. This reduces the likelihood of a rate hike in December. The Bank of Canada's wage common measure has been more stable at 2.3% so far this year. This is a better indicator of the underlying trend, but no doubt it’s still short of what we would expect at this point in the cycle.

Also, the participation rate fell to 65.2% last month, the lowest level in 20 years as the labour force increased by just 62.5k so far this year--one of the smallest 10-month gains in recent history. It is notable, however, that the participation rate for 25-54 year-olds--the core labour force--rose to a record high.

On a regional basis, employment rose slightly in Saskatchewan, while there was little change in all the other provinces (see table below).

More people were employed in business, building and other support services; wholesale and retail trade; and health care and social assistance. In contrast, there were fewer workers in "other services;" finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing; and natural resources. Employment in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing declined by 15,000 in October, offsetting an increase the month before. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the industry was little changed as housing starts, and resales have slowed, especially in BC and ON.

Bottom LIne : Income growth will be crucial in enabling households to manage debt loads in a rising rate environment and by extension a key determinant of the pace of future Bank of Canada interest rate hikes. Today's jobs report along with other less timely data suggest the Bank of Canada will refrain from raising interest rates in December.

US Posted A Strong October Jobs Report

Hiring rebounded sharply last month in the US as non-farm payrolls added 250k new jobs, compared to 118k in September, which was restrained by disruption from Hurricane Florence. The unemployment rate held at its cycle-low 3.7%.

The closely watched measure of wage growth--average hourly earnings-- rose 0.2% on the month. On a year-over-year basis, wages in the US were up 3.1%, a new post-recession high.

This is an unambiguously positive report. Hiring bounced back from a hurricane-dampened September. The number of Americans with jobs relative to the population reached a new post-recession high. And, perhaps most notably, wages continue to make progress.

With the Fed just having moved in September, we are not anticipating another hike at next week’s FOMC meeting as the central bank adheres to a gradual pace of tightening. However, our forecast does anticipate a 25-basis point increase at the next policy meeting in December followed by similar-sized hikes every quarter through next year. This results in the upper end of the fed funds rate range finishing 2019 at 3.50% compared to 2.25% currently.

This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper.

Top DLC Brokerage Awards | September 2018

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 31 Oct 2018 23:08:45 GMT

Canadian Mortgage Experts is proud to have placed first for both Top 20 Monthly Revenue and Top 20 Mortgages Funded Monthly in September of 2018.

These acknowledgements are proof that CME is a collection of the most profitable and professional brokers in the country. We believe that when we put our client’s needs first, we’re rewarded with their trust, which leads to referrals, which leads to more profitable business opportunities.

Thanks to all the CME brokers who make this company what it is, and to all our clients who trust us to assist them with some of the biggest financial decisions of their lives!

CME's CMP Women of Influence 2018

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 25 Oct 2018 21:13:18 GMT

Congratulations to Christine Buemann, Illona Bronson, and Tonia Jacobson Marshall

We're very excited to announce that three of our Dominion Lending Centres Canadian Mortgage Experts have been included in the Canadian Mortgage Professional (CMP) Women of Influence list. The list is put together by the Canadian Mortgage Professional magazine, with the idea to acknowledge women who are leading the way in what has traditionally been a male dominated industry.

What a great honour for our brokers to be recognized in this capacity. Congratulations to Christine Buemann, Illona Bronson, and Tonia Jacobson Marshall!

Please join us in congratulating these women who have made the Canadian mortgage industry a better place. We're so proud to have them on our team!

The Art of Leveraging

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 10 Oct 2018 00:00:00 GMT

For some people, just owning one property and having a single mortgage is enough to handle. But for others, homeownership can be a gateway to owning multiple investment properties. You might be thinking: there’s no way I can turn the value of my modest home into a real estate empire. Ok, maybe not an empire, but you can take the equity of your home and, with the right investment, get a return far greater than a stock portfolio.

Most people are trained to stay out of debt and don’t want to consider using the equity in their home to buy an investment property. But they haven’t realized the art of leveraging.

If you’re using equity from your primary residence to buy an investment property, keep in mind that the interest you’re using is tax deductible. Consider you’re also buying an appreciating asset, and if you put a real estate portfolio to a stock portfolio side-by-side, they don’t compare.

Who is a good candidate? You might be surprised to learn you don’t need to make six figures to get into the game.

Essentially, you just have to be someone who wants to be a little smarter with their down payment.

Before you go down that road, there are some quick things you need to know.

With investment properties, the minimum down payment will jump to 20 or 25 per cent from five percent. Rental income from the property can be used to debt service the mortgage application, while some lenders will have a minimum liquid net worth requirement outside of the property.

Most lenders also limit the number of mortgages in a portfolio. Usually, after five mortgages, you’ll be considered a commercial file. However, a mortgage broker can work with other lenders to increase the number of investment properties.

Typically, when you’re considering a mortgage, you’re looking at the rate. But the rate is less important compared to your cash flow and future equity position. If it all sounds like a bit much, consulting a mortgage professional with an understanding of investment financing is the best way to start.

Most people who get into investment real estate think they’ll only end up buying one property, but that’s not usually the case. A broker will prep you for a 10-year plan of purchasing property and position you accordingly. A broker will also have a good understanding of the alt-side of lending and how you can benefit from that type of financing.

If this is of interest to you, contact any one of our Canadian Mortgage Experts, we'd love to walk you through all your options!

This article appeared as part of the DLC Newsletter from October 2018

Does the Bank have your Back?

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 02 Oct 2018 00:00:00 GMT

If your mortgage is coming up for renewal, you’re probably keeping a close eye on rates. But it can be a little bewildering to see the banks offering a bunch of different rates.

If you’re left wondering why, the short answer may be a little harsh. The banks offer different rates because they can, and consumers are brainwashed to believe the banks have their best interest

So what can you do to get the best rate? To start, know that the bank does not have your best interest. Then, reach out to a mortgage broker for help.

A mortgage broker has no bias opinion on what lender they’re going to use. A reputable broker doesn’t care where they put the mortgage and has multiple lenders to choose from and compete for your business.

If you’re about to embark on the renewal process, you might want to try this approach. Tell your bank you’re working with a top mortgage broker and you intend to call them bank every day to get their best five-year fixed and variable rate.

If your mortgage broker can’t beat the rate, you’ll likely be advised to stay there. However, most of the time, your broker will be able to get you a better rate, just based on the number of different lenders in which they have access.

When you go back to your bank, and they decide to match the new lower rate, you have to ask yourself an important question: If they really valued your relationship, why didn’t they just offer you that rate in the first place?

With a bit of homework and proper broker, nine out of 10 times they can get you a better rate.

Lastly, you need to keep in mind a mortgage is more than just a rate. You need to consider the personality of your mortgage, and certain aspect like the penalties to break the mortgage and if it’s portable. These are things a mortgage broker can help you figure out. Contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts for more information!

This article was originally published as part of the DLC Newsletter in October of 2018.

August 2018 | DLC Top Performers Awards

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 01 Oct 2018 00:00:00 GMT

It’s always nice to see our Canadian Mortgage Experts being recognized for their dedication to their clients! A huge congratulations to Christian Amurao and Cory Larkin who placed among the top 50 DLC brokers in the country for Monthly Revenue.

Canadian Home Sales Edge Upward in August

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 17 Sep 2018 00:00:00 GMT

The Canadian housing market showed continued signs of stabilizing last month with sales edging upward and prices easing a bit.

National home sales increased 0.9% in August, the fourth consecutive monthly gain. Sales in Toronto advanced 2.2% while they rose 2.9% in Vancouver. Nevertheless, the pace of sales activity remains below levels in most other months going back to 2014 (see chart below). As well, recent monthly sales increases are diminishing, which could mean that the recent rebound, particularly in Ontario, could be running out of runway.

The housing market has been recovering from steep sales declines early this year after federal regulators imposed stricter mortgage lending rules and the central bank raised borrowing costs. Home sellers also seem to be lowering prices for homes, fueling demand.

Roughly half of all local markets posted an increase in sales from July to August, led again by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), along with gains in Montreal and Edmonton. Sales in the major urban areas of BC declined by 3.8% year-over-year (y/y) in August. The housing market in BC has slowed considerably since the February provincial budget hiked the foreign purchase tax and suggested a speculation tax could be introduced in the fall.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes was unchanged between July and August, as new supply gains in the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA) and Montreal offset declines in the GTA and Winnipeg.

With sales up slightly and new listings unchanged, the national sales-to-new listings ratio edged up to 56.6% in August compared to 56.2% in July. The long-term average for this measure of market balance is 53.4%.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, about two-thirds of all local markets were in balanced market territory in August 2018.

There were 5.2 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of August 2018, right in line with the long-term average for the measure.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) was up 2.5% y/y in August 2018, well below the booming pace in 2016 and early 2017. Benchmark home prices fell by 0.6% from July to August, the biggest decline since August of last year. The price decline was driven by Vancouver, where prices dropped 1.4%, the most significant monthly drop in a decade. Toronto home prices fell 0.3% in August.

Condo apartment units posted the most substantial y/y price gains in August (+9.5%), followed by townhouse/row units (+4.3%). Meanwhile, one-storey and two-storey single-family home prices were little changed on a y/y basis in August (+0.4% and -0.4% respectively).

Trends continue to vary widely among the 17 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI. Home price gains are diminishing on a y/y basis in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia (GVA: +4.1%; Fraser Valley: +10.7%). Prices in Victoria were up 8.5% y/y in August. Elsewhere on Vancouver Island, prices climbed 13.6%.

Among the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) housing markets tracked by the index, home prices were up from year-ago levels in Hamilton-Burlington (+7.2%), the Niagara Region (+6.6%), Guelph (+5.5%), the GTA (+1.4%) and Oakville-Milton (+1.2%). By contrast, home prices remained down on a y/y basis in Barrie (-2.7%).

In the Prairies, benchmark home prices remained down on a y/y basis in Calgary (-2.2%), Edmonton (-2.1%), Regina (-4.8%) and Saskatoon (-2.3%).

Meanwhile, home prices rose by 7.1% y/y in Ottawa (led by an 8.2% increase in two-storey single-family home prices), by 5.9% in Greater Montreal (driven by a 6.3% increase in two-storey single-family home prices) and by 4.8% in Greater Moncton (led by a 7.5% increase in two-storey single-family home prices). (see Table below)

Bottom Line

Housing markets continue to adjust to regulatory and government tightening as well as to higher mortgage rates. The speculative frenzy has cooled, and multiple bidding situations are no longer commonplace in Toronto and surrounding areas. The housing markets in the GGH appear to have bottomed, and supply constraints may well stem the decline in home prices in coming months. The slowdown in housing markets in the Lower Mainland of BC accelerated last month as the sector continues to reverberate from provincial actions to dampen activity, as well as the broader regulatory changes and higher interest rates.

Since the implementation of new mortgage standards, nonprice lending conditions for mortgages and home equity lines of credit have also tightened. Additional rate hikes by the Bank of Canada are coming this fall, likely in late-October if the NAFTA negotiations appear to be progressing. The economy is running at full capacity, unemployment is low, and incomes are rising. Inflation is expected to return to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, and uncertainty regarding trade with the US remains, but the central bank will continue to cautiously raise its trend-setting interest rate through the end of next year.

This article was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper DLC’s Chief Economist.

Subject Free Offers; Still Risky!

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 11 Sep 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Written by Dustan Woodhouse. CME | DLC

The majority of my clients have stellar qualifications: established careers and businesses, excellent credit ratings, solid down payment funds, etc. They are truly awesome individuals who will almost certainly receive mortgage financing without a hitch.

Almost certainly.

With multiple offers, bidding wars, and over-asking-price bids now common as far afield from Vancouver proper as Port Coquitlam and beyond, clients find themselves, in the heat of the experience, contemplating a subject-free offer.

But there’s often an unanticipated hitch: the property itself.

A client would be hard pressed to find a Realtor to write an offer without a ‘subject to inspection‘clause, and for good reason. Similarly, a client should be hard pressed to find a Mortgage Broker advising an offer without a ‘subject to financing‘ clause.

This is because no banker or Broker can give a client 100% assurance of financing without factoring in the actual specific property details. Until an appraisal is reviewed and approved, the application is not complete. And there are some properties that some lenders simply will not lend against.

There are the obvious examples that lenders tend to exclude;

Properties containing Asbestos, Aluminium wiring, Underground Oil tanks
Re-mediated former grow-ops
Re-mediated drug labs.

There are also less obvious ones;

live-work units
row-homes (attached non-strata properties)
properties smaller than 450 sq ft
properties on lease land, Government, First Nations, or Private.

Regarding the appraisal process, there is more than simply the valuation question to be answered. In fact, valuation is rarely the challenge in our market, as many properties ‘auto-approve’ when the value is below $750,000. (This is not true of ALL properties below $750,000 by a long shot; many lenders condition all strata properties for instance for a full appraisal no matter the purchase price.)

What is being looked at other than value in the appraisal report?

A key complication is a little thing called ‘Remaining Economic Life or REL’ (as opposed to the ‘physical life’) of the home. This refers to how long this specific house is likely to remain standing on this property under the current care it is receiving.

Perhaps we have an otherwise perfectly habitable home for decades to come ─ lots of remaining ‘physical life’. The problem is that lenders are looking for remaining ECONOMIC life rather than the remaining physical life. The question is not “How long can that house be standing there?” it is “How long does it make economic sense for that house to be standing there given current market conditions?”

There may be a problem if it is located in a neighbourhood where many of the older homes are being purchased to be demolished and replaced with multimillion dollar homes. That leaves the purchase looking like a speculative land play or potential knock-down. As such, the remaining economic life is perhaps 15 years or less stated in the appraisal report.

Or maybe the property is a ramshackle house in a state of disrepair. It looks like the bargain of the age on paper, and perhaps the purchaser is a contractor planning to bring the home back into a wonderful state of repair. However the appraisal must view the current remaining economic life of the home ‘as-it-sits’ not ‘as-is-planned’. We have seen homes like this with REL as short as five years.

What is this ‘Remaining Economic Life’ exactly?

Economic life is the total period of time which the improvements (house/buildings) contribute to the overall property value. The total economic life of a typical Lower Mainland home is generally accepted to be 65 years. Economic life and physical life can differ widely and physical life usually exceeds economic life. Renovations and updates can increase a property’s physical and economic life, and poor maintenance can shorten it. Increases in land value can also have a negative impact on remaining economic life. As older homes are torn down to make way for new ones, it makes less economic sense to keep the older one standing.

REL is the estimated time period which the improvements continue to contribute to property value. An appraiser estimates REL in part by interpreting the economic conditions, attitudes and reactions of buyers in the market.

The REL is calculated by subtracting the Effective Age from the Total Economic Life.

Economic Life – Effective Age = Remaining Economic Life

For example:

A 40-year-old home that has had substantial renovations may have an effective age of 30 years.

65 years – 30 years = 35 years Remaining Economic Life (REL)

How lenders view Remaining Economic Life (REL)

Few lenders will lend on a home with a remaining REL of less than 15 years. Also, the effective amortization will be set at the REL minus five years, which drives payments sky high, and often leaves client unable to qualify for such large mortgage payments should they even want to sign on for them.

Clients can run the risk at this point of their own awesomeness being part of the undoing of the mortgage approval. Clients with significant liquid assets and strong incomes buying a smaller, older home on the street of newly built monoliths will be viewed as most likely planning to knock the home down and build a new one.

The immediate thought: ‘But the land value alone… ’

Lenders are not in the business of writing conventional AAA-rate mortgages on properties that will be torn down. Instead this is viewed as ‘speculative’ or ‘investment/business’ lending with which come undeniably greater risks. Wherever one finds greater profits there are greater risks. Lenders price accordingly, which is why land/construction financing carries higher rates and additional fees.

A property with a habitable home standing on it is unquestionably easier to market and sell ─ and thus recover the loan balance from ─ should the lender have to step in and take over. And foreclosure is the last thing any Canadian lender wants to contemplate.

It will take on average 18 months of no payments before a lender has gained control of and sold a property through the foreclosure process. And at the end of it said lender must seek out the defaulting client and write them a cheque for the remaining equity that was in the property, all the while honouring the original interest rate in most cases.

It is nothing like the US system at all. (which is a wonderful thing for us)

So lenders avoid any whisp of risk, preferring security. Ideally in the form of a habitable home on a lot that is going to look decades from now much as it does today.

Clients would be wise to also minimize risk, by either writing offers that contain a ‘subject to inspection’ and a ‘subject to financing’ clause, or by having a detailed conversation with a skilled Broker well in advance of writing a subject-free offer.

If you have any questions, contact a Canadian Mortgage Expert near you today.

Get Protected with Mortgage Insurance

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Mon, 10 Sep 2018 00:00:00 GMT

It’s a topic not a lot of people want to talk about: Death. It’s especially not something people want to think about as they get ready to sign a mortgage.

This should be an exciting time, and the last thing you want to be thinking about is your mortality. We’ve either dealt with our own sudden tragic loss, or have heard the stories of someone who has. We’ve also heard stories of the people who didn’t have insurance.

The majority of people skip over getting mortgage insurance for two reasons: they don’t want to spend the money, or they already have some type of life insurance policy through work.

Let’s address the first. No one wants to spend more money than they have too. And if you’re single and don’t have any children to care for, maybe mortgage insurance isn’t for you.

But if you have spouse and kids, you need to think about whether they can carry on with the mortgage payment. If they can’t they’ll be forced to sell.

For a few dollars a month extra, it may not be a bad idea.

There are also a number of different policies that could work for your budget. Manulife’s Mortgage Protection Plan offers you immediate insurance and can be canceled at any given time.

While you think you may be covered through your work, you need to take a closer look at the policy.

Mortgage insurance is a debt replacement while life insurance is an income replacement. You need to understand the difference. You also need to see just how much you’re going to get through your policy. Unless you’re a police officer or firefighter, you may end up being surprised just how little you end up with at the end of the day.

And statistically speaking, if you’re a younger person, you’re more likely to be injured and disabled, at least consider the disability portion of the mortgage insurance.

When your mortgage broker asks you to consider mortgage insurance, it’s easy to dismiss the conversation, but don’t. You may be saving your loved ones even more pain and grief if something should happen to you down the road. Contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts for more information.

This article originally appeared in the September edition of the DLC Newsletter.

Choosing Your Mortgage Broker

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 06 Sep 2018 00:00:00 GMT

There’s little doubt, the biggest purchase in your life will be a home. So when you’re embarking on what can be both an exciting and stressful journey, you want the best professionals by your side. When it comes to picking a broker to handle your mortgage, it’s not always easy to decide who to choose.

There are roughly 18,000 mortgage professionals in Canada. While most are honorable and great at their job, it’s important to find the broker that works best for you.

Nowadays, there’s plenty of information or reviews on any given broker at your fingertips. While those searches can give you pretty good insight into a potential broker, there’s a few things you also might want to consider that can help make that decision a little easier.

I know it’s tempting to choose a broker who has an abundance of clients and years of experience in the industry. While it’s never a bad idea to go with the established, be open to picking someone who might be newer, hungry and striving to be better. Also, with a busy firm, you may end up being a small fish in a big pond, and not get quite as much attention as you’d like.

As brokers, we spend a lot time using our industry jargon because it comes natural to us. We work in it every day. But for the average person, some of the terms in a mortgage can be downright confusing. And in a lot of situations, people don’t want to speak up because they don’t want to sound dumb. Look for a broker who is going to keep it simple for you, so you understand exactly what you’re getting in your mortgage.

Ultimately, it comes down to the mortgage product. But don’t be blinded by a broker who is selling you on a rate and making promises to pay for fees. It’s a big red flag. If they say they’re going to pay for everything, they’re desperate for anything.

Of course the rate matters, but the characteristics of your mortgage matter more and could end up costing you in the long run.

You want a broker who’s going to listen to you and ask you about your needs and future goals. Why are your plans five or 10 years from now so important? Consider that nearly 70 per cent of mortgages are broken within three years. Even if you’re sure of today, life happens and tomorrow could be different. You need to at least consider the penalties for ducking out of your mortgage early, or if it’s even portable.

The best mortgage brokers in the business will make sure they’ve got all of your bases covered, and you’re fully aware of what you’re signing onto. Don’t hesitate to contact any of our Canadian Mortgage Experts to help you arrange mortgage financing!

This article originally appeared in the September edition of the DLC Newsletter.

Bank of Canada Maintains Overnight Rate Target at 1.5%

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 05 Sep 2018 00:00:00 GMT

As expected, the Bank of Canada held its key overnight rate this morning at 1.5%, asserting that July’s surprising spike in CPI inflation to 3% was in large part because of a jump in airfares. The Bank expects inflation to move back towards 2% in early 2019, as the effects of past increases in gasoline prices dissipate. The Bank’s core measures of inflation remain firmly around 2%, consistent with an economy that has been bumping up against full capacity for some time. Wage growth, as well, remains moderate.

Incoming information on the global economy is consistent with the Bank’s forecast in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The US economy has been particularly strong, growing at a 4.2% rate in the second quarter. This compares to Canada’s growth rate of 2.9% last quarter, which follows a 1.4% pace of economic expansion in Q1. Second quarter growth in the US was boosted by strong consumer spending and business investment. In Canada, third quarter growth is expected to slow temporarily, mainly because of fluctuations in energy production and exports.

Indeed, this morning, Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s trade deficit all but disappeared. A sharp export gain to the US combined with a decline in imports took Canada’s overall merchandise trade deficit to its lowest level since December 2016.

Canada’s merchandise trade surplus with the US, targeted by President Trump in NAFTA negotiations, grew to the widest in a decade. Stats Canada said that gains in global exports were led by automobiles and energy, almost all of which were bound for the US. Crude oil led the energy gains as prices rose 9.4% in July. The import decline was driven by aircraft and metal ores.

These figures are likely to impact the resumption of bilateral talks in Washington regarding NAFTA, as the Trump administration has negotiated a new deal with Mexico and has threatened to leave Canada out and impose stiff auto tariffs if Trudeau’s government does not make concessions, especially on dairy supply management and dispute mechanisms.

The Bank of Canada highlighted that “elevated trade tensions remain a key risk to the global outlook and are pulling some commodity prices lower…The Bank is also monitoring the course of NAFTA negotiations and other trade policy development closely, and their impact on the inflation outlook.”

It was wise of the Bank of Canada to hold its powder dry at today’s policy meeting given the continued uncertainty on the NAFTA front. An agreement on NAFTA would provide the central bank with more comfort in moving ahead with a hiking cycle that has already lifted the benchmark overnight rate four times since mid-2017.

Noting that “activity in the housing market is beginning to stabilize as households adjust to higher interest rates and changes in housing policies”, the Bank reaffirmed that the economy is doing well enough to require higher interest rates in the future to achieve the inflation target. Another rate hike could come as soon as the next policy meeting on October 24th.

It is widely expected that a NAFTA deal will have come to fruition by then, opening the way for the Bank to resume monetary tightening. According to Bloomberg News, “Investors see near-certain odds that by October, the Bank of Canada will raise borrowing costs for the fifth time since the hiking cycle began in July 2017 , with as many as two additional increases by mid-2019.”.

This commentary was written by Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC’s Chief Economist. Below is the Bank of Canada rate announcement.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

613-782-8782

Ottawa, Ontario

September 5, 2018

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ½ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ¾ per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ¼ per cent.

CPI inflation moved up to 3 per cent in July. This was higher than expected, in large part because of a jump in the airfare component of the consumer price index. The Bank expects CPI inflation to move back towards 2 per cent in early 2019, as the effects of past increases in gasoline prices dissipate. The Bank’s core measures of inflation remain firmly around 2 per cent, consistent with an economy that has been operating near capacity for some time. Wage growth remains moderate.

Recent data on the global economy have been consistent with the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projections. The US economy is particularly robust, with strong consumer spending and business investment. Elevated trade tensions remain a key risk to the global outlook and are pulling some commodity prices lower. Meanwhile, financial stresses have intensified in certain emerging market economies, but with limited spillovers to other countries.

The Canadian economy is evolving closely in line with the Bank’s July projection for growth to average near potential. Following growth of 1.4 per cent in the first quarter, GDP rebounded by 2.9 per cent in the second quarter, as the Bank had forecast. GDP growth is expected to slow temporarily in the third quarter, mainly because of further fluctuations in energy production and exports.

While uncertainty about trade policies continues to weigh on businesses, the rotation of demand towards business investment and exports is proceeding. Despite choppiness in the data, both business investment and exports have been growing solidly for several quarters. Meanwhile, activity in the housing market is beginning to stabilize as households adjust to higher interest rates and changes in housing policies. Continuing gains in employment and labour income are helping to support consumption. As past interest rate increases work their way through the economy, credit growth has moderated and the household debt-to-income ratio is beginning to edge down.

Recent data reinforce Governing Council’s assessment that higher interest rates will be warranted to achieve the inflation target. We will continue to take a gradual approach, guided by incoming data. In particular, the Bank continues to gauge the economy’s reaction to higher interest rates. The Bank is also monitoring closely the course of NAFTA negotiations and other trade policy developments, and their impact on the inflation outlook.

July 2018 | DLC Top Performers Awards

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 04 Sep 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Canadian Mortgage Experts is proud to announce the July 2018 line-up of top performing brokers.

We’re very proud of these brokers who have placed in the Top 50 of Dominion Lending Centres nationally, ranked in Total Monthly Revenue and Mortgages Funded Monthly. Congratulations to the following brokers for their outstanding accomplishments: Chad Oyhenart, Cory Larkin and Adam Coultish!

Here are their well-deserved DLC Award Certificates:

Top DLC Brokerage Awards | July 2018

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Tue, 04 Sep 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Canadian Mortgage Experts is proud to have placed first for Top 20 Monthly Revenue in July of 2018.

This acknowledgements is proof that CME is a collection of the most profitable and professional brokers in the country.

We believe that when we put our client’s needs first, we’re rewarded with their trust, which leads to referrals, which leads to more profitable business opportunities. This belief seems to be proving true as we’re proud to say that we’ve been the top DLC Brokerage in Canada for the last 6 years. These July numbers are part of our continued effort to extending our streak as the number one DLC franchise to 7 years in a row.

Thanks to all the CME brokers who make this company what it is, and to all our clients who trust us to assist them with some of the biggest financial decisions of their lives!

Q2 Canadian Growth Rebounded to 2.9%

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Thu, 30 Aug 2018 00:00:00 GMT

This morning, Stats Canada released the second quarter GDP figures indicating a sharp rebound in growth to its most robust pace in a year.

Real gross domestic product growth accelerated to 2.9% (all figures quoted in annual rates), up sharply from the 1.4% pace in Q1. The Q2 result is only slightly above the Bank of Canada’s 2.8% forecast released in the April Monetary Policy Report, tempering the expectation of a BoC rate hike at next Wednesday’s policy meeting.

First quarter growth had been depressed by a plunge in housing* (see note below), which fell by a whopping 10.5% annual rate in Q1. Investment in housing increased to a modest 1.1% annual rate in the second quarter. Declines in ownership transfer costs continued, but at a more modest pace than in Q1, while new residential construction contracted for the first time since the third quarter of 2016. However, these declines were more than offset by a sharp gain in outlays for renovations.

The strengthening growth in Q2 mainly reflected a surge in exports (+12.3%)–the biggest quarterly gain since 2014–due in part to notable increases in energy products and consumer goods, particularly pharmaceutical products. Exports of aircraft, aircraft engines, and aircraft parts increased sharply on higher shipments of business jets to both the US and non-US countries. Exports of services edged down a bit. Net exports (exports minus imports of goods and services) grew at a 6.5% annual rate in Q2 compared to 4.2% in the prior quarter.

Also boosting growth was stronger consumer spending. Household final consumption expenditure (+2.6%) increased at more than twice the pace of the first quarter, reversing the downward trend over the previous three quarters. Growth was attributable primarily to outlays on services (+3.2%), which outpaced outlays on goods. Housing-related expenses (housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels), up at a 2.4% annual rate, contributed the most to the widespread growth in consumption of services.

Household spending on goods grew at a 2% annual rate following a flat first quarter, with rebounds in semi-durable and non-durable goods. Purchases of vehicles decline at a 2% annual rate. One negative in the consumption numbers may be that the increased spending was financed by a lower household savings rate. The consumer saving rate fell to 3.4% in Q2 compared to 3.9% in Q1 and 4.5% in the final quarter of last year.

Despite the sharp improvement in growth in Q2, market watchers might be disappointed as slowing business investment brought growth in below the 3.5% forecast of some Bay Street economists. The Canadian dollar dropped in immediate response to the report.

Business investment in non-residential structures, machinery and equipment and computers and computer peripheral equipment decelerated to its slowest pace since the fourth quarter of 2016, which might well have reflected the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of NAFTA and the imposition of tariffs on a growing number of Canadian exports to the US. Business sentiment and investment in capital formation is an important leading indicator of future growth, so the Q2 slowdown bodes poorly for the outlook. Most analysts are forecasting a marked slowdown in GDP growth in the current quarter to less than 2%.

Interest Rate Outlook

In light of the deceleration in business investment, the Bank of Canada has little reason to hike interest rates at the Bank’s next policy meeting on September 5. Investors are betting that a rate hike in October is a near certainty according to Bloomberg Canada.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz played down inflation worries and the prospect of aggressive interest rate increases last week at a Fed conference in the US. Poloz argued that the recent spike in inflation to 3% in July, the highest in the G-7, was due to transitory factors that would eventually be reversed. The wage measures in today’s GDP report, along with the separate May employment earnings numbers, point to the Bank of Canada’s ‘wage-common’ measure rising 2.4% in Q2, little changed from the increase in the first quarter.

Even though Canada is bumping up against capacity constraints and labour shortages are rising, Governor Poloz appears to be in no hurry to bring interest rates all the way back to non-stimulative levels. He has repeatedly made a case for gradualism citing heightened uncertainty over geopolitics and trade as well as economists’ inability to measure critical parameters like potential growth.

The Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate four times since July 2017 to cool the economy, and market indicators suggest investors are expecting as many as three more hikes over the next year, after which the central bank is anticipated to go into a long pause. That will leave the target for the benchmark rate, currently at 1.5%, at 2.25%–below the 3% “neutral” rate the Bank estimates as a final, non-stimulative resting place for overnight borrowing costs.

Notes:

*Housing investment in the GDP accounts is technically called “Gross fixed capital formation in residential structures”. It includes three major elements:

new residential construction;
renovations; and
ownership transfer costs.

real estate commissions;
land transfer taxes;
legal costs (fees paid to notaries, surveyors, experts, etc.); and
file review costs (inspection and surveying).

This article was written by DLC chief economist Dr. Sherry Cooper and was originally published as part of her ongoing newsletter.

Is a Reverse Mortgage Right for You?

jacksonmiddleton@gmail.com (Jackson Middleton) — Wed, 22 Aug 2018 00:00:00 GMT

One of the benefits of working with a Canadian Mortgage Expert is that we aren’t tied to a single lender, rather we have access to multiple lending institutions.

Having more options with lender partners, means having more options with mortgage products. The HomeEquity Bank and their reverse mortgage product is a great example of this.

A reverse mortgage allows Canadian homeowners 55 and older to access some of the equity in their home without any income or credit checks, and no monthly payments.

The HomeEquity Bank recently conducted some research in partnership with IPSOS research and discovered what older Canadians really want from their retirement, they included the information in a newsletter, and we wanted to share the findings with you here…

These are the key points:

> 93% of 65+ Canadians want to continue living in their home throughout retirement
> Almost 70% want to stay so that they can maintain their independence
> Many have been approached about selling their home but are determined to stay

They also need extra money. In the same survey, HomeEquity Bank asked: if money were no object, what improvements would you make to your home?

> 33% said that they would modernize their home’s décor
> 40% would install a new kitchen or bathroom
> 21% would install accessibility enhancements

In an earlier survey carried out with ResearchNow, HomeEquity Bank asked Canadian homeowners aged 55+, if they were given a $100k cash gift, what would they do with the money? Their answers included paying off their mortgage or other loans, using it to supplement retirement income or covering healthcare expenses.

So why do they need help to stay in their home? Many Canadians approaching retirement age have insufficient or zero retirement savings. Plus, retirees are seeing their debt grow faster than any other age group.

If you or someone you know might benefit from talking about a reverse mortgage, any one of our Canadian Mortgage Experts would love to discuss all your financial options.